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Europe’s battery darling runs out of juice

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This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘Europe’s battery darling runs out of juice

Sonja Hutson
Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Friday, September 20th and this is your FT News Briefing. The markets are saying let’s party like it’s 2019. Meanwhile, Swedish battery maker Northvolt is entering its austerity era. Plus, people can get obsessed with their frequent flyer status. So when some airlines announced stricter rules, the gloves really came off.

Brooke Masters
And now US regulators are asking, is this a bait and switch and is it illegal?

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Sonja Hutson
I’m Sonja Hutson and here’s the news you need to start your day.

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Looks like Wall Street is going to be putting some champagne on ice. The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high yesterday. Investors bet that the Federal Reserve’s mega half-point rate cut is going to steer the economy into a soft landing. In other words, dodge a recession. Big Tech stocks at the top of the index led the rally, and the tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite was up 2.5 per cent yesterday. It’s a sector that really loves low rates because when money’s cheaper, debt feels lighter and riskier, assets start to look a little less scary. And it wasn’t just a party in the USA. European and Japanese indices were also up by a percentage point or two.

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A Swedish battery company has been a symbol of Europe’s fight against US and Chinese dominance in electric vehicles. But Northvolt is now struggling to scale up its operations and stay afloat. I’m joined now by the FT’s Richard Milne to discuss what this could mean for Europe’s auto industry. Hi, Richard.

Richard Milne
Yeah, hi there.

Sonja Hutson
So first off, why was Northvolt this kind of beacon of hope for Europe’s green energy ambitions?

Richard Milne
Yeah. So it was founded in 2017 by two former Tesla executives and then very quickly got the likes of Volkswagen, Goldman Sachs, BMW, Siemens, Ikea, all sorts of people on board to shareholders you know created a lot of optimism. And they went pretty quickly. They opened their gigafactory just below the Arctic Circle in northern Sweden at the end of 2021, producing the first battery. And it raised more money than any other privately held start-up in Europe. It’s raised more than $15bn, but since then, not a lot has gone right.

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Sonja Hutson
Yeah. And what kind of problems is Northvolt facing?

Richard Milne
At its most basic, it just isn’t producing enough batteries. Battery making is just incredibly complex. One expert said it was like getting a million ballet dancers and everything has to go right. And it just has struggled to make its production lines work at the right speed, the right quality at the right cost levels. So it’s just massively behind schedule. It’s burning through a lot of cash. And at the same time, it’s up against these Asian competitors, particularly CATL and BYD of China, that are able to produce batteries extremely cheaply.

Sonja Hutson
And what’s the company doing to try to overcome those challenges?

Richard Milne
So the first thing it’s doing really is scaling back its ambitions. At one stage it was going to try and build so four gigafactories at the same time. It stopped or paused a lot of that and it really focusing just on this gigafactory in northern Sweden first. It realises that that is what it’s got to get right. But basically, if investors don’t give it more capital fairly soon, then it’s going to be in trouble. And the backdrop here is that in Europe, the demand for electric vehicles has been less than expected. This, in some ways may help given that it’s not making very much of them, but it also is giving investors sort of pause for thought. You know, is this green industry sector as hot as we thought it was?

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Sonja Hutson
Hmmm. Now if Northvolt can’t get its act together, what would that mean for Europe?

Richard Milne
So this is really the big question. I mean, the car industry’s hugely important in Europe, and we’re in this transition to electric vehicles that are going to be dependent on batteries. If Northvolt doesn’t succeed and other European start-ups also don’t succeed, then basically you’re giving that part of your supply chain to Asian players. And that leaves a lot in the car industry worried because you want to have a close relationship with your battery maker. You probably want to tailor the batteries to your cars rather than to your rivals. So this is sounding big alarms in Europe.

Sonja Hutson
Richard Milne is the FT’s Nordic and Baltic correspondent. Thanks, Richard.

Richard Milne
Thanks so much.

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Sonja Hutson
Another day, another central bank meeting. The Bank of England said yesterday that it’s holding interest rates at 5 per cent for now, which isn’t a surprise. A majority of analysts predicted that it would keep things steady. That’s because inflation did not change in August and the BOE already cut borrowing costs by a quarter point last month. But future rate cuts are still on the table. The bank said it would take a gradual approach to loosening policy so long as there is no major changes in the economy. So most people assume that means the next rate cut is likely to come in November.

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There is no better feeling than booking a vacation. Well, except for maybe when you get that free business class upgrade because you have status. Frequent flyers love collecting points from their loyalty programs. But over the past couple of years, airlines have started making it even harder to maintain that status. And customers are not letting this fly. Here to explain more is the FT’s Brooke Masters. Hi, Brooke.

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Brooke Masters
Hi.

Sonja Hutson
So for the uninitiated, how exactly do these airline loyalty programs work?

Brooke Masters
The basic way is you get a certain number of points for flying a certain number of miles, and then you can use those points to buy upgrades or buy seats. And as you hit certain levels of points, you get a status. For example, I am this year a gold status member on Delta.

Sonja Hutson
Gold? You?

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Brooke Masters
My husband is a diamond, which is much better. My husband’s diamond status means basically if he flies business class and there’s a free seat in first class, they automatically upgrade him and you used to get into lounges. Now it’s a lot harder to get in lounges.

Sonja Hutson
Well, I hope you achieve diamond status one day. And just how profitable are these programs for the airlines?

Brooke Masters
These days they are absolute cash cows. That’s because they’ve figured out a new trick instead of just giving you points when you fly. They now cut deals with credit card companies where the credit card companies buy the points from the airlines and offer them to their customers for charging on the credit card. The airlines and the credit card companies also offer co-branded credit cards, which give fees to the airlines, as well as to the credit card companies. As a result, IAG, which is the parent of British Airways and Iberia, actually makes more money from its credit card program than it does from flying any of its airlines.

Sonja Hutson
So why are some customers annoyed with these programs right now?

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Brooke Masters
There’s been a problem since Covid with too many people with too many points, because if you imagine people built up their points during Covid, they now want to fly. And so there was just too many people trying to use too few benefits, and it became very unpleasant. So the airlines have basically changed the rules, saying, we know we told you a credit card would get you lounge access. Actually, not so much. You know, it’s better for all of us. We’re trying to build loyalty. And now US regulators are asking, is this a bait and switch and is it illegal?

Sonja Hutson
And so if customers get so annoyed that they start to ditch these programs, where does that leave the airlines, especially because these programs are so, so profitable?

Brooke Masters
It will be tough for their bottom lines, I mean, because this is absolutely an important part of their growth plans and their profit programs. American Airlines got itself into big trouble a couple of months ago when it tried to say that if you booked your corporate flights, unless you booked them directly with American or through a couple of preferred travel partners, you wouldn’t get points at all. And people stopped flying. I mean, it showed up in their bottom line. They had to reverse the policy. The airlines do run the risk that they may choose not to fly them if the frequent flyer program is too bad.

Sonja Hutson
OK. So people are obviously heavily invested in these programs. But why is that? Like, what is it about them that gets everyone so riled up?

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Brooke Masters
When Delta changed its rules the travel boards lit up and one of the best comments was somebody who referred to the alterations as a stinking, odorous sack of shites. There is this emotional feeling that when the program works, you love them. But, you know, every time I walk by the lounge and realise I can’t get in, it makes me really angry. And that’s what it’s about. It’s a game. People are absolutely emotionally attached to their programs. One of the consultants I talked to said you should always keep in mind people will pay anything to get something for free.

Sonja Hutson
Brooke Masters is the FT’s US financial editor. Thanks, Brooke.

Brooke Masters
Always a pleasure.

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Sonja Hutson
You can read more on all these stories for free when you click the links in our show notes. This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Check back next week for the latest business news. The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Marc Filippino, Kasia Broussalian and me, Sonja Hutson. Our engineer is Monica Lopez. We had help this week from Michela Tindera, Mischa Frankl-Duval, Sam Giovinco, David Da Silva, Michael Lello, Peter Barber, Gavin Kallmann and Persis Love. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio and our theme song is by Metaphor Music.

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Private equity firms seek new terms to increase payouts on deals

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Private equity firms are aggressively pushing to include language in loan documents that could give them room to pay themselves larger dividends from the companies they have bought, drawing a sharp rebuke from lenders.

In the past, loan documents usually capped exactly how much money a private equity firm could extract from one of its portfolio companies. Over time, those fixed amounts became malleable and were based on a percentage of a company’s earnings.

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But in recent weeks, private equity firms have been attempting to take things one step further with the so-called high-water ebitda provision, which allows a company to use the highest earnings it generates over any 12-month period for critical tests that govern how much debt the company can borrow or the size of dividends it can pay to its owner, even if the business’s earnings have slid since reaching that high point.

KKR, Brookfield, Clayton, Dubilier & Rice and BDT & MSD Partners have all attempted to work the clause into loan documents, according to people briefed on the matter. All four firms declined to comment.

The terms have received intense pushback from would-be lenders, and in almost every case the language has ultimately been stripped out of the loan documents. But the fact that private equity-backed companies continue to push for the inclusion of the language has lenders on edge, with some fearful rival creditors will buckle and accept the provision.

According to lenders who saw drafts of the loan agreements, the terms were included in provisional loan documents backing KKR’s buyouts of asset manager Janney Montgomery Scott, valued at roughly $3bn in the deal, and $4.8bn purchase of education technology company Instructure, as well as Brookfield’s $1.7bn acquisition of a unit of nVent Electric. The clause was also put in provisional documents for refinancings by Wesco, which is owned by BDT & MSD Partners, and CD&R’s Focus Financial.

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“It’s a really aggressive term,” one creditor said. “It’s a tough time to say, ‘I’m going to push the envelope further.’”

In one deal, RBC, which was lead underwriter on the $900mn term loan Brookfield was raising for its investment in nVent, told an investor that the bank had strong demand and if the language was an issue they should “vote with [their] feet”.

When enough investors passed, the high-water language got pulled from the loan document.

RBC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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The fact the language is being tested is one sign of a potential imbalance in the loan market, a critical source of funding for private equity buyouts. With buyout volumes still down from the 2021 peak, investors have had fewer new deals to spread their funds across, leading to heightened competition around some loans.

Column chart of US leveraged loan issuance where proceeds are used for M&A or buyouts ($bn) showing With buyouts down from their peak, loan investors have fewer options

“When you’re in a strong market, it’s usually harder to push back against” these terms, one banker involved in the Instructure financing said. But, he added, “they’re not surviving.”

The language has made it into at least one deal, a $2.1bn term loan for a commercial laundry operation known as Alliance Laundry, according to two people briefed on the matter. The company planned to use the proceeds to refinance debt and pay a $890mn dividend to its owner, BDT & MSD, according to S&P Global and Moody’s.

The provision reads that “the borrower may deem Ebitda to be the highest amount of Ebitda achieved for any test period after the closing date . . . regardless of any subsequent decrease in Ebitda after the date of such highest amount”, text seen by the Financial Times showed.

“If you didn’t ask for those terms in a negotiation you didn’t do your job,” one private equity executive said. “You always want to give maximum flexibility to your businesses.”

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The high-water concept is not foreign to creditors; it is far more prevalent in European leveraged finance markets. And some bankers and lawyers argue the idea is rooted in common sense.

In certain loans, the amount of future debt a company can borrow or the sums it can dividend out to its owner is set as a percentage of earnings. Companies like that flexibility, because if they are growing they do not have to keep amending their loan documents if they would like to borrow or distribute more cash. Investors said savvy lawyers decided to push that concept one step further.

The high-water provision creates a threat for would-be investors, particularly if a business begins to slow before a loan matures.

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“Over time the protections that were built into credit agreements by commercial banks have deteriorated,” said Tom Shandell, Investcorp Credit Management’s head of US CLOs and broadly syndicated loans. “Private equity [firms], which can afford the best and brightest attorneys, have little by little put terms into credit agreements that weaken the protections.”

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How to enter the international advice market

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World, map
World, map
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The ebb and flow of the global economy means that, as some people migrate to the UK, others leave it, creating opportunities for international financial advice.

The new Labour government has confirmed that the current tax regime for non-UK domiciled individuals will be replaced with a residence-based test from 6 April 2025, so international advice firms can expect more enquiries.

If UK advice firms want to develop a global presence, how should they go about it?

Working out the options

Branching out internationally is not something that can be achieved on a whim. Advisers must obtain the relevant permissions to advise in different parts of the world, and know how to navigate the quirks of various tax jurisdictions.

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We’ve all heard horror stories of people moving out [of the UK] and it not being what they expected

Qualifications and regulatory requirements can vary greatly between countries and the location in which an adviser is based will also have practical implications for the areas they can cover.

“If I wanted to live in the US, doing a load of Australian exams would be pointless,” says Chris Ball, co-founder of international advice firm Hoxton Capital Management.

“It would be impossible — or at least very difficult — to be on the same time zone. But I could do the UK and Europe from there.”

One way for UK firms to start out is by partnering another firm that is already established in the international advice market. But this market comprises a wide range of businesses, with varying reputations and ways of operating, which means that, to do it properly, there is no fast-track entry.

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A basic UK Level 4 qualification would be expected by most companies now

“You’ve got companies that are very commission and sales driven; then you’ve got companies that are fee based and more financial planning focused,” says Ball.

Being selective

Ball says UK advisers should ensure they do their homework on prospective partners and be wary of whom they get into bed with.

“I think a lot of people do that, but we’ve all heard horror stories of people moving out [of the UK] and it not being what they expected,” he says. “No one wants to be in that position.”

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According to Academy of Life Planning chief executive Steve Conley, the advice industry in some countries resembles that of the UK as it was 20 years ago, with product sales being incentivised by commission, and ‘bad apples’ appearing in different guises through phoenix firms.

You’ve got companies that are very commission and sales driven; then you’ve got companies that are fee based and more financial planning focused

Conley believes international advice firms should charge fixed fees for financial planning to “eliminate conflicts of interest, promote trust and advocate market integrity”. He suggests UK advice firms seek to partner a well-established firm that has highly qualified advisers and good, independent customer reviews.

“Don’t go by the awards they have won because there are a lot of vanity awards in this industry. They can be paid for rather than be voted for by the public,” he says.

A question of quality

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Diane Bentley, a former nurse, lost half her pension when an international advice firm advised her to transfer her National Health Service pot to an overseas Qrops pension scheme when she moved to France. Now back in the UK, she runs a Facebook group providing support to others who have experienced bad offshore advice.

Bentley says that, because the international advice market is commission led, the incentive to get more UK pensions offshore becomes extremely risky.

The stereotype of a second-hand car salesman going to Dubai to become a financial adviser is pretty much gone

“It is poorly regulated and the advisers are badly trained. We want them trained to the UK standard — a minimum of Level 4,” she says.

“Why shouldn’t we expect the same standards as people onshore are getting?”

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Ball acknowledges that the international advice market has had its problems, but says it is cleaning itself up.

“A basic UK Level 4 qualification would be expected by most companies now,” he says.

“And the stereotype of a second-hand car salesman going to Dubai to become a financial adviser is pretty much gone. The quality of people here in the Middle East and in Australia advising British expats is really good.”


This article featured in the September 2024 edition of Money Marketing

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Government borrowing in August highest since Covid

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Government borrowing in August highest since Covid
Bloomberg People commuting to work Bloomberg

Government borrowing in August rose to the highest level for the month since the Covid pandemic in 2021.

Official figures show that borrowing – the difference between spending and tax revenue – reached to £13.7bn last month, £3.3bn more than in August last year.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that tax income “grew strongly” but this was outweighed by some benefits being increased and higher spending public services, including pay.

The figures are released as the government prepares for the Budget at the end of October, which Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has warned will be “painful”.

The ONS said higher benefits spending was largely due to payments being increased in line with inflation. A number increased including the carer’s allowance and the disability living allowance.

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Inflation also pushed up running costs for public services, it added.

Increased borrowing in August means that national debt remained at levels last seen in the early 1960s, with the ONS estimating it to be equivalent to the entire size of the UK’s economy.

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UK government borrows more than expected in August

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UK government borrowing sharply overshot expectations in August in a blow to chancellor Rachel Reeves as she prepares for her first budget next month.

The public sector borrowed £13.7bn, the highest August shortfall since 2021, according to the Office for National Statistics.

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That was £3.3bn higher than August last year, and £2.5bn higher than had been forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility, the fiscal watchdog.

Government net debt was provisionally estimated at 100 per cent of gross domestic product at the end of August 2024, the ONS added.

This is a developing story

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Taiwan says device parts not made on island

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Taiwan says device parts not made on island

The Taiwanese government has said components in thousands of pagers used by the armed group Hezbollah that exploded in Lebanon earlier this week were not made on the island.

The comments come after Taiwanese company Gold Apollo said it did not make the devices used in the attack.

The Lebanese government says 12 people, including two children, were killed and nearly 3,000 injured in the explosions on Tuesday.

The incident, along with another attack involving exploding walkie-talkies, was blamed on Israel and set off a geopolitical storm in the Middle East.

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“The components for Hezbollah’s pagers were not produced by us,” Taiwan’s economy minister Kuo Jyh-huei told reporters on Friday.

He added that a judicial investigation is already underway.

“I want to unearth the truth, because Taiwan has never exported this particular pager model,” Taiwan foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung said.

Earlier this week, Gold Apollo boss Hsu Ching-Kuang denied his business had anything to do with the attacks.

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He said he licensed his trade mark to a company in Hungary called BAC Consulting to use the Gold Apollo name on their own pagers.

The BBC’s attempts to contact BAC have so far been unsuccessful. Its CEO Cristiana Bársony-Arcidiacono told the US news outlet NBC that she knew nothing and denied her company made the pagers.

The Hungarian government has said BAC had “no manufacturing or operational site” in the country.

But a New York Times report said that BAC was a shell company that acted as a front for Israel, citing Israeli intelligence officers.

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In another round of blasts on Wednesday, exploding walkie-talkies killed 20 people and injured at least 450, Lebanon’s health ministry said.

Japanese handheld radio manufacturer Icom has distanced itself from the walkie-talkies that bear its logo, saying it discontinued production of the devices a decade ago.

Iran-backed Hezbollah has blamed Israel for what it called “this criminal aggression” and vowed that it would get “just retribution”.

The Israeli military has declined to comment.

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The two sides have been engaged in cross-border warfare since the Gaza conflict erupted last October.

The difficulty in identifying the makers of the devices has highlighted how complicated the global electronics supply chain has become.

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Europe is failing to protect Ukraine’s energy grid, says IEA head

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This article is an on-site version of our Europe Express newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every weekday and Saturday morning. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newsletters.

Good morning. A scoop to start: The EU could bar imports of coffee from a number of countries within weeks unless Brussels delays a ban on products from deforested areas, commodity companies and governments have warned.

Today, the head of the International Energy Agency tells our energy correspondent that Europe isn’t doing enough to protect Ukraine’s power infrastructure, and our competition correspondent reveals a demand from 20 EU capitals for the European Commission to cut more red tape than it has already promised.

Have a great weekend.

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Cold comfort

The head of the IEA has accused Europe of being too reticent in its support for Ukraine, calling for more generators and repair equipment for the war-torn country ahead of a difficult winter, writes Alice Hancock.

Context: Ukraine has suffered heavy attacks on its energy infrastructure by Russia, particularly in late August in retaliation for its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Half of all Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed, roughly equivalent to the capacity of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

In a report published yesterday, the IEA said Ukraine’s electricity deficit this winter could reach as much as 6GW, around a third of anticipated peak demand. The power shortfall this summer was 2.5GW when Kyiv was already enduring long blackouts.

“It’s time for everybody to understand that this winter could be consequential in Ukraine,” Fatih Birol, director-general of the IEA, told the FT. “It is the most pressing energy security issue today in the world.”

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A lack of energy supplies meant a knock-on impact on the operation of hospitals, schools, water supplies and other “major implications”, Birol added.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv today to discuss the situation. They will also talk about where to direct €100mn the EU has given Ukraine for repairs and renewable energy, which came from the profits from immobilised Russian assets in the EU.

The EU will also provide €60mn in humanitarian aid for shelters and heaters. Average winter temperatures in Ukraine vary between -4.8C and 2C, according to World Bank figures.

Birol said there were “major shortages” of many crucial parts, including transformers, grid equipment and diesel generators. He said Europe had been too “conservative” in sending electricity to Ukraine and could step up exports without jeopardising European supply.

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European consumers could help by cutting their own electricity demand, allowing more power to go to their eastern neighbour. This would be a “very decent way of showing solidarity”, Birol said.

Ukraine should have enough gas to see it through early winter, but the IEA said that once current contracts expire at the end of the year, there could be a need to increase west-to-east gas flows to Ukraine from central and eastern European neighbours.

Chart du jour: Rising tide

The Alternative for Germany looks set to win another state election in Brandenburg on Sunday, just weeks after the far-right party won its first regional poll in Germany’s postwar history. But the Social Democrats are closing in.

Cut it

If Europe wants to be globally competitive, it needs to go further than what Brussels plans to boost the single market, says a paper co-authored by 20 member states, including the Netherlands and Germany, writes Javier Espinoza.

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Context: Two recent landmark reports — by former Italian leaders Mario Draghi and Enrico Letta — spelt out the stark risks of failing to reform the single market. They highlighted the need to reduce regulatory pressure on companies and to make it easier for businesses to access funding in order for the bloc to compete with the US and China.

Ursula von der Leyen’s second term at the head of the European Commission had to “continue to cut red tape . . . going beyond the announced 25 per cent reduction of reporting requirements”, the joint document states, referring to an existing promise.

She should also back “specific digital tools” that would allow companies to focus less on regulatory reporting.

The signatories, which also include Luxembourg and the Czech Republic, called on the commission to provide “an enabling and transparent regulatory environment” — technical language for forcing capitals to align their rules.

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Lex Delles, Luxembourg’s economy minister, pointed to persistent barriers within the single market where “retailers cannot pick their suppliers in the country of their choice because of territorial supply constraints imposed by wholesalers”.

He added: “By prohibiting such practices, we would show businesses and consumers that the EU can deliver concrete results for them.”

What to watch today

  1. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen travels to Kyiv.

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