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Falling rates and growing confidence in US economy drive a bond revival

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Revived investor enthusiasm for bonds and growing confidence in a “soft landing” for the US economy is buoying some of the world’s biggest financial groups and sparking record inflows into fixed-income exchange traded funds.

BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase said on Friday that they had each pulled in unprecedented amounts of new assets to manage in the third quarter as they reported better than expected quarterly profits.

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Bond giant Pimco said its assets under management had reached $2tn for the first time since the 2022 full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine sent bond and equity markets tumbling.

“I’ve been investing in fixed income for more than 30 years, and the current environment is one of the most attractive I’ve seen in public markets for an active manager,” said Dan Ivascyn, Pimco’s chief investment officer.

Across the industry, the prospect of falling central bank interest rates and benign economic conditions gave investors increased confidence that bonds would hold their value and provide competitive returns. That led to an inflow of $123bn into US bond funds, including $93bn into ETFs, in the quarter to September 30, according to data from Morningstar Direct.

“The long-awaited great rotation, where investors move off the sidelines and start to ‘re-risk’ by investing in equity and fixed-income products, is beginning to materialise” said Kyle Sanders, analyst at Edward Jones.

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While equity markets rebounded rapidly in 2023, many investors opted for cash savings rather than bonds while central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, were raising rates rapidly in a bid to tame inflation. But the central banks are now changing course amid fears about growth.

Executives at JPMorgan and Wells Fargo said on Friday that consumers were slowing their discretionary spending but there were no signs of major economic distress. That raised hopes that the Fed, which cut rates by 50 basis points last month, has been able to tackle inflation without triggering a recession, in a so-called soft landing.

That environment was helping to lure investors back into the market and give them more confidence in bonds as a source of steady returns and a hedge against an equity pullback, analysts said. Bond fund returns also look more competitive as banks begin to cut the rates they pay on deposits.

“As the Fed gets going — and cuts further — you are likely to see a bigger shift into bonds. Two main drivers of our inflows this year have been expectations around Fed easing and . . . [investors] who want high quality bonds that provide diversity in periods of stress,” said Kirstie Spence, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Capital Group.

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Column chart of US fixed-income ETFs saw record quarterly inflows showing Investors are pouring into bonds

More than half of the fixed-income ETF inflows, or $55bn, went to BlackRock and Vanguard. Their passive funds have led the sector’s rapid growth for years. But active managers such as Capital Group, JPMorgan, and Janus Henderson also benefited: each enjoyed net quarterly flows of at least $2bn in to their active bond ETFs.

“If there’s one headline story when I think about bond flows, it’s a much more democratic environment,” said Ryan Jackson, a manager research analyst at Morningstar. 

For BNY, which suffered overall outflows from its asset management arm, fixed income was a lone bright spot for net inflows. “We are positioned for more flows,” said chief financial officer Dermot McDonogh on Friday.

Beneficiaries of the return to fixed income included a wider range of strategies beyond just core bond funds. The top active bond ETF in inflows this year has been Janus Henderson’s AAA-rated fund made up of collateralised loan obligations. It has ridden $7.2bn in flows this year to hit $13bn in net assets — more than three times its size a year ago — as it has outperformed virtually all of its ultrashort bond peers over the past three years. 

“If anything, I think some of the trades we’re seeing are bigger and chunkier,” said John Kerschner, Janus Henderson’s head of US securitised products. “A couple of years ago, people had to be convinced that [investing in fixed income] was going to be better than cash.”

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Money managers said they expected the inflows to continue, especially if central bank policy rates settled above the zero level that prevailed before the recent burst of inflation.

“A more normalised, relatively high-rate environment has the potential to encourage investors back even more into fixed income,” BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink said. “There is no question that money is in motion.”

Craig Siegenthaler, an analyst at Bank of America, said he expected active bond flows to get “a lot stronger” in 2025 as short-term interest rates fell below those for longer-duration bonds. “It’s really encouraging investors to start going out on the [yield] curve.”

Additional reporting by Joshua Franklin and Stephen Gandel in New York

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P&O owner to attend summit despite row over Louise Haigh’s comments

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P&O owner to attend summit despite row over Louise Haigh's comments

P&O Ferries owner, DP World, will now attend the UK’s investment summit on Monday, despite a row over a minister’s criticism of the firm.

It had been feared they might pull out from the summit – where they were expected to announce a £1bn investment – after Transport Secretary Louise Haigh criticised the ferry firm and urged consumers to boycott the company.

An expansion of the firm’s London Gateway port, in Essex, is likely to go ahead, with an announcement expected by some in the coming days.

Whitehall sources said on Saturday that there had been “warm engagement” between senior figures in the firm and the government since Sir Keir Starmer distanced himself from his minister’s remarks.

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The government is hosting the International Investment Summit, where it hopes to attract billions of pounds of investment.

A Downing Street spokesperson said the summit would “show Britain is open for business” as it looks to enable economic growth.

Speaking to the BBC’s Newcast on Friday, Sir Keir said Haigh’s comments were “not the view of the government”.

The prime minister is understood not to have been directly involved in talks with DP World, nor has he personally spoken to Haigh about her remarks.

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DP World has said the expansion of the London Gateway port would bring Thurrock hundreds of jobs.

The row started after Haigh described P&O as a “rogue operator” in an interview with ITV on Wednesday, after it sacked nearly 800 seafarers in 2022 and replaced them with cheaper workers.

Asked whether she used the ferry service, she said: “I’ve been boycotting P&O Ferries for two-and-a-half years and I would encourage consumers to do the same.”

DP World insisted the move was needed for the survival of the ferry operator and to secure thousands of jobs.

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Haigh’s comments in the interview coincided with the Department for Transport announcing new legislation aimed at protecting seafarers from what it described as “rogue employers”.

In that announcement, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner was quoted calling P&O Ferries’ prior actions “outrageous”.

But senior government figures previously told the BBC that they were incensed by the suggestion that consumers boycott the ferry firm.

Haigh’s comments also attracted criticism from the Conservatives, with shadow business secretary Kevin Hollinrake arguing Labour “don’t understand business”.

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However, the Labour chair of the House of Commons Business and Trade Committee, Liam Byrne, defended Haigh.

She had been “absolutely right to say that the behaviour of P&O, owned by DP World, in the past has been completely unacceptable”, he said.

The row has exposed a tension between the new government’s desire to attract business and strengthen workers’ rights.

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Buying Medical Properties Trust Taught Me a Costly Lesson

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Motley Fool


Medical Properties Trust (NYSE: MPW) is my largest investment in a single real estate investment trust (REIT). I built that position up over a decade and a half by steadily buying more shares of the healthcare REIT. The main draw was its high-yielding dividend.

That investment paid off for a long time. However, the healthcare REIT has come under tremendous pressure in recent years due to an issue I completely overlooked: tenant concentration. Medical Properties Trust leased a significant percentage of its hospital portfolio to two tenants, which cost the company and its shareholders dearly when it ran into financial troubles. That taught me to pay much closer attention to customer concentration and quality when investing in any company.

Not diversified enough

Medical Properties Trust is one of the largest owners of hospital real estate in the world. It owns several hundred facilities leased to many different hospital operators. However, two tenants comprised a meaningful percentage of its total assets and revenues for many years. For example, at the end of 2022, the REIT’s rent roll consisted of:

Operator

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Properties

Percentage of Total Assets

Percentage of Revenues

Steward Health Care

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41

24.2%

26.1%

Circle Health

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36

10.5%

11.9%

Prospect Medical Holdings

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14

7.5%

11.5%

Priory Group

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32

6.6%

5.3%

Springstone

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19

5%

5.8%

50 Operators

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302

38%

39.4%

Other investments

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0

8.2%

0%

Total

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444

100%

100%

Data source: Medical Properties Trust.

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While the REIT had over 50 tenants, five supplied more than 60% of its revenue. That became an issue as Steward Health Care and Prospect Medical Holdings ran into financial troubles.

Those issues led the REIT to work with these large tenants to help them navigate their financial problems. For example, in May 2023, Medical Properties Trust reconstituted its $1.6 billion investment in properties leased to Prospect Medical Holdings in a series of transactions. It converted some leases into an equity interest in that company’s managed care business. Meanwhile, it temporarily suspended rents in California, with partial repayments resuming last September and full rent commencing this past March.

Medical Properties Trust also tried to keep Steward afloat by providing financial assistance and temporarily reducing its rent. However, those efforts weren’t enough, and Steward filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. The REIT was finally able to sever its relationship with Steward last month, which enabled it to find new tenants for many of the properties it formerly leased to that company.

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The REIT’s issues with two of its largest tenants weighed heavily on its stock price (shares are down nearly 80% from their peak a few years ago). It has had to sell properties leased to financially stronger tenants to repay maturing debt. It also cut its dividend twice.

Lessons learned

The biggest lesson I’ve learned from investing in Medical Properties Trust is to carefully consider customer concentration and quality when investing. The higher the concentration of a single customer, the greater the risk that the client’s issues will become a problem for that investment. Likewise, if a company has a high concentration of financially weaker clients, that could also impact my investment in the future.

Medical Properties Trust has learned this lesson the hard way. That’s led it to focus on diversifying its tenant base by bringing in higher-quality tenants. For example, it agreed to lease its entire Utah hospital portfolio to CommonSpirit Health last year after the healthcare company acquired Steward’s operations at those facilities. CommonSpirit has strong investment-grade credit, which enhances its ability to meet its financial obligations. Securing such a high-quality tenant for those facilities enabled the REIT to sell a majority interest in the real estate to another investor to raise additional cash. Meanwhile, it recently agreed to replace Steward at 15 other properties with four high-quality operators as part of its bankruptcy settlement with Steward.

As a result of that agreement, the REIT has achieved the objectives it laid out in its second-quarter earnings conference call. CFO Steve Hamner stated, “Looking through the calendar to 2025 and into 2026, our expectation is that we will have a stable portfolio of hospital real estate leased to key operators in their respective markets with no exposure to Steward.” With that goal achieved, the REIT can focus on rebuilding its portfolio by adding new properties leased to high-quality operators to continue diversifying its tenant base. That should also enable it to rebuild its dividend.

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It’s important to dig a little deeper

I didn’t pay enough attention to Medical Properties Trust’s tenant concentration as I built my position, which proved costly. However, I learned a valuable lesson: Analyze a company’s client base and quality because that could have a meaningful impact on its future results. Medical Properties Trust learned that costly lesson as well. With its tenant quality improving and its rent roll more diversified, it’s in a much better position to deliver the stable income and growth I initially expected as I built my position. That’s why I plan to continue holding, believing it can eventually make a full recovery.

Should you invest $1,000 in Medical Properties Trust right now?

Before you buy stock in Medical Properties Trust, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Medical Properties Trust wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $826,130!*

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Matt DiLallo has positions in Medical Properties Trust. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Buying Medical Properties Trust Taught Me a Costly Lesson was originally published by The Motley Fool



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UK food safety watchdog to probe lead levels near abandoned mines

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The UK’s independent food safety watchdog will investigate lead levels in food produced near abandoned lead mines after the impact of the toxic metal on human health was highlighted by a Financial Times investigation.

The UK has 6,630 abandoned lead mines that continue to disperse the metal into the environment each year. Lead can accumulate in waterways and soil before being consumed by animals and entering the food chain. 

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In a letter seen by the Financial Times, Professor Alan Boobis, chair of the Committee on Toxicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and the Environment, told Conservative MP Julian Smith that the Food Standards Agency would conduct a risk assessment.

The FSA’s review of “dietary lead as part of its risk analysis programme” would take “into account hotspots where exposure is likely to be higher, including the specific concern regarding old lead mines”, said Boobis, whose independent group advises the FSA and the Department of Health and Social Care.

Consumed by humans, lead has a devastating impact on almost every organ in the body, with any level of exposure capable of having a harmful effect, according to the World Health Organization.

Yet the UK’s Veterinary Medicines Directorate, an agency of the environment department, tests just between 400 and 450 samples of meat, milk, fish and honey for the presence of lead and other heavy metals each year. Experts say testing such a small number of food items offers an insufficient assessment.

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This year Boobis said he “agreed with the conclusion” of an FT investigation that found the scale of lead toxicity present in farm animals reared for human consumption was unknown, and said ministers should assess the scale of lead contamination “from farm to plate” in the food chain.

Scientists and farmers rearing animals for human consumption have previously said the FSA should be concerned about people living near old lead mine sites, and who might be growing their own vegetables and eating locally produced eggs. 

Last year a study funded by the Welsh government identified potentially harmful levels of lead in eggs produced on two small farms downstream from abandoned lead mines in west Wales.

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A young child eating one or two of the eggs per day “could become cognitively impaired”, according to the research. Small-scale studies of vegetables grown on the farms indicated they too contained “elevated, and potentially toxic, concentrations” of lead, according to the full study.

Boobis added in his letter to Smith: “Lead is an issue that cuts across a number of government departments, so it will be important to ensure an integrated assessment.”

Smith, whose constituency of Skipton and Ripon in North Yorkshire has an estimated 412 old lead mines, said: “Lead risk needs a root-and-branch assessment and the FSA should deliver nothing less.”

Mark Willis, head of chemical contaminants at the FSA, said the agency kept “all contaminants in food under review as part of its rolling programme of risk analysis work”.

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“The outcome of a future review of lead will inform any advice to ministers on whether changes to legislation are recommended,” he added.

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Neighbours fume over ‘eyesore’ derelict estate as last-man standing locals refuse to leave so block can be flattened

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Neighbours fume over 'eyesore' derelict estate as last-man standing locals refuse to leave so block can be flattened

NEIGHBOURS are fuming over an “eyesore” derelict estate – with one defiant local refusing to leave so the block can be flattened.

The block in Swanscombe, Kent has been boarded up and earmarked for demolition after the local council ruled out pricey repairs.

The boarded-up flats in Swanscombe

3

The boarded-up flats in SwanscombeCredit: KMG
Locals say the block is a magnet for fly-tippers

3

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Locals say the block is a magnet for fly-tippersCredit: KMG
Most residents have moved out of the derelict estate

3

Most residents have moved out of the derelict estateCredit: KMG

Flats in the building had been dogged by damp, weak foundations and cracked windows and ceilings.

The council gave tenants a one-off payment of £7,800 as compensation for moving out.

Most of them took the money and left – but one resident is staying put.

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Demolition plans were confirmed last week but have been postponed because of the last man standing.

Neighbours Miranda Richards told the Kent Messenger: “When I walk past it from my car late at night, it is scary.

“I don’t like walking past a derelict building. There used to be trees there to mask the flats but they have come down.”

Another neighbour said: “It’s an eyesore. There is always fly-tipping there.”

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Ward councillor Emma Ben Moussa said: “The uncertainty for the residents around the area has been quite unfair.

“They have been left like that for a while now. Whatever decision is going to be made I would like it to be made quite quickly.

“They should know what is happening as they have been left in limbo.”

Dartford Council said: “The council is currently considering future options for the use of the site.”

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A spokesperson added: “We await the final residents to vacate the block.

“Once the block is vacant, a proposal with recommendations will be made to the council’s cabinet.”

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Low-cost airline launches first-ever flights from regional UK airport as full plane with 174 passengers takes off

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The connecting city is famous for its Viking history

A LOW cost airline has launched its first-ever flight from a regional UK airport with 174 passengers on board.

The airline will provide direct flights from a UK airport to a popular European capital.

The connecting city is famous for its Viking history

2

The connecting city is famous for its Viking historyCredit: Getty
The first-ever flight got a water salute from airport firefighters

2

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The first-ever flight got a water salute from airport firefighters

Customers flying on its North American connections can even visit two countries in one trip as stop overs are free in this major city.

It has been announced that for the first time ever, Wales and Iceland will be connected by a direct flight.

Customers on board PLAY Airlines can fly from Reykjavik, Iceland, to Cardiff, Wales, up to twice per week.

This will enable the people of Wales to explore the glorious blue lagoons and Viking history of Iceland.

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Or, enable the people of Iceland to explore Wales and its stunning beaches, mountains and castles.

The first-ever flight took off just a day before Wales’ football game in Iceland – with 174 passengers on board.

Customers were treated to Icelandic sweets before take off such as Aurora Borealis cake, candy stripes, and chocolate liquorice.

Plus a water salute from Cardiff Airport firefighters.

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Lee Smith, Cardiff Wales Airport’s Head of Business Development, said: “It’s a pleasure to welcome PLAY Airlines to Wales today.

“This exciting service allows customers to enjoy direct flights between Wales and Iceland for the first time.

Discover the Magic of North Iceland

“PLAY’s Icelandic hub in Reykjavík also allows for people in Wales to take advantage of PLAY’s free stopovers in Iceland, before jetting off to five key cities in North America.

“We look forward to working with the team at PLAY to continue growing in Wales.”

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Flight costs from Cardiff to Reykjavik in October start from as little as £55, per person for a round trip.

The trip time one way takes about three hours.

And there is still availability to fly out in October.

Customers using PLAY Airlines from Cardiff also have the option of visiting five other major cities abroad.

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Such as New York, Washington, Boston and Baltimore in the USA.

Or Toronto in Canada.

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3 Dividend Stocks That Reward You Through Thick and Thin

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Motley Fool


This year, some notable companies have cut or eliminated their dividends. For example, former stalwarts Walgreens and 3M ended decades-long streaks of dividend growth with deep cuts to their payouts. It’s a situation that can make some investors want to give up altogether on income investing.

However, while some formerly reliable companies have disappointed investors on the dividend front in recent years, others have continued to make their payments no matter what. Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD), Oneok (NYSE: OKE), and NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) stand out to a few Fool.com contributors for their dividend stability. Here’s why you should consider adding them to your portfolio.

Enterprise Products Partners is built to pay you well

Reuben Gregg Brewer (Enterprise Products Partners): For 26 consecutive years, midstream energy giant Enterprise Products Partners has increased its distributions. That’s a huge commitment to its unitholders, but there’s more for income investors to like here than just the distribution history. It all starts with its master limited partnership structure, which is designed to pass income on to investors in a tax-advantaged manner. (A portion of the distribution is usually return of capital.) So down to its foundation, Enterprise is about paying its investors well.

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Then, factor in its business model. Enterprise owns energy infrastructure like pipelines, storage, refining, and transportation assets that are vital to the energy sector’s operation. However, unlike other segments of the industry, the midstream segment is largely fee driven. Enterprise generates reliable cash flows based on the use of its assets, so the often-volatile prices of oil and natural gas don’t really have that big an impact on its financial results. Demand for energy, which is usually strong even when oil prices are weak, is the key determinant of Enterprise’s success.

ET Financial Debt to EBITDA (TTM) Chart

ET Financial Debt to EBITDA (TTM) Chart

Then there’s the fact that Enterprise has an investment-grade rated balance sheet. Moreover, its leverage is normally toward the low end of its peer group, so it is conservative on both an absolute and relative basis. Lastly, the partnership’s distributable cash flow covers its distribution 1.7 times over.

All in all, a lot would have to go wrong before Enterprise Products Partners would need to cut its distribution. It is far more likely that it will continue to grow those disbursements, albeit slowly, as its capital investment plans pan out. But slow and steady distribution growth combined with a huge 7% yield will probably sound like music to most dividend investors’ ears.

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Over a quarter century of growth and stability (and more growth coming down the pipeline)

Matt DiLallo (Oneok): Pipeline giant Oneok has proven its dividend durability over the decades. It has achieved more than a quarter century of dividend stability. While it hasn’t increased its payment every year during that period, it has a strong track record on payout hikes. Since 2013, Oneok has produced peer-leading total dividend growth of more than 150%. That’s impressive, considering that the world experienced two notable periods of oil price volatility during that period.

Oneoke has delivered sustainable earnings growth over the years. Its portfolio of pipelines and related midstream infrastructure generates predictable fees backed by long-term contracts and government-regulated rate structures. Its earnings grow as the volumes flowing through that infrastructure increase due to production growth, organic expansion projects, and acquisitions.

The company has been on an acquisition-fueled expansion binge in recent years. Last year, it bought Magellan Midstream Partners in a transformational $18.8 billion deal that increased its diversification and cash flow. The highly accretive deal will add an average of more than 20% to its free cash flow per share through 2027. That supports management’s view that Oneok will be able to grow its dividend by 3% to 4% annually during that period while also repurchasing shares and reducing its leverage ratio.

Oneok followed that up with a $5.9 billion deal to buy Medallion Midstream and a meaningful interest in EnLink Midstream this August. The transaction will be immediately accretive to its free cash flow and capital allocation strategy. After closing that deal, Oneok plans to buy the rest of EnLink, further boosting its cash flow per share. The company also expects to complete additional organic expansion projects, further enhancing its growth rate.

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The midstream giant’s investments will help fuel its dividend growth for the next several years, even if there’s another market downturn. Those features make Oneok a great stock to buy for those seeking reliable dividends.

A steady dividend grower

Neha Chamaria (NextEra Energy): NextEra Energy, which has a yield of 2.6% at its current stock price, has rewarded its shareholders through thick and thin, and management is determined to continue doing so. The utility and clean energy giant has paid regular dividends for decades, but more importantly, increased them steadily over time. Between 2003 and 2023, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of NextEra Energy’s dividend was nearly 10%, backed by a 9% CAGR in its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and an 8% CAGR in operating cash flow during the period.

NextEra Energy operates two businesses — Florida Power & Light Company (the largest electric utility in Florida) and clean energy company NextEra Energy Resources (the world’s largest generator of wind and solar energy). So while its regulated utility business generates stable cash flows, clean energy is where its growth largely comes from.

NextEra Energy expects its adjusted EPS to grow at an annualized rate of 6% to 8% through 2027, and expects annual dividend hikes of around 10% through 2026 as it pumps billions of dollars into both businesses.

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More specifically, NextEra Energy plans to spend over $34 billion on Florida Power & Light between 2024 and 2027 and more than $65 billion on renewable energy over the next four years. That’s massive, and if done right, should steadily boost NextEra Energy’s earnings and cash flows to support bigger dividends for years, regardless of how the economy fares.

Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity

Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.

On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:

  • Amazon: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2010, you’d have $21,022!*

  • Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $43,329!*

  • Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $393,839!*

Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.

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See 3 “Double Down” stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of October 7, 2024

Matt DiLallo has positions in 3M, Enterprise Products Partners, and NextEra Energy. Neha Chamaria has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Reuben Gregg Brewer has positions in 3M. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends NextEra Energy. The Motley Fool recommends 3M, Enterprise Products Partners, and Oneok. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Don’t Give Up on Dividends: 3 Dividend Stocks That Reward You Through Thick and Thin was originally published by The Motley Fool

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