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For Honeywell, not breaking up will be hard to do

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A man walks past the Honeywell booth at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai

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Honeywell International is doing its best to rehabilitate the idea of the industrial conglomerate. Elliott Management, an activist investor, has other ideas.

Elliott has amassed a $5bn — or 3 per cent — stake in the $151bn conglomerate. It is calling on the company, which makes everything from cockpit controls to warehouse robots, to split itself up into two standalone businesses: one focused on aerospace, the other on automation.

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Honeywell does not seem to have got the memo that conglomerates have become achingly unfashionable. At a time when the global trend is for industrial empires to break up and generate returns by specialising in a single area of business, boss Vimal Kapur has been bulking up.

Indeed, in just 17 months on the job, he has spent nearly $10bn on acquisitions, such as a $5bn swoop on Carrier Global’s security access business.

Kapur is sticking to the idea that Honeywell can thrive as a conglomerate by shedding slower-growing, low-margin businesses and buying higher-growth ones. Alongside the acquisitions, it has announced plans to spin off its advanced materials unit into a publicly traded company and is looking to divest its personal protective equipment business.

Even so, Honeywell’s finances suggest it’s time for something more decisive. Its $5.7bn in earnings and $37bn of revenue last year are both less than what it pulled in 2019. Honeywell shares have lagged behind the wider market this year. Before the news of Elliott’s stake, the stock had risen just 12 per cent while the S&P 500 gained 26 per cent.

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Compare that with General Electric, a conglomerate that did get the message that smaller is better. GE shareholders have in effect enjoyed a 160 per cent return since turnaround chief Larry Culp announced a three-way break-up in November 2021, Lex calculates. That beats the S&P 500 index’s 27 per cent gain and Honeywell’s 2 per cent rise over the same period.

Elliott makes a good case that a divided Honeywell would be more valuable. Making aeroplane engines has little in common with making electronic door locks. Aerospace operates on decade-long timelines, while the automation business requires a shorter-term outlook.

The activists also reckon a separation could push up the share price by 51 to 75 per cent in the next two years. Sum-of-the-parts analysis from Jefferies and Deutsche Bank suggest more modest upsides. But if M&A roars back under Donald Trump, a break-up could lead to future deals, with Honeywell’s pieces as targets. Honeywell Aviation could be a good fit with GE Aviation, for example. Pressure to shrink to greatness will be hard to resist.

pan.yuk@ft.com

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Donald Trump’s Pentagon pick sparks alarm — and scorn

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Donald Trump’s choice of Pete Hegseth to run the Pentagon has brought a backlash in Washington military circles as officials decry a “crazy” move to appoint a “bomb thrower” lacking the clout needed to lead the world’s most powerful defence department.

Trump nominated Hegseth, a Fox News host known for his attacks on “wokeness”, on Tuesday — one of several controversial national security picks by the president-elect in a rapid-fire 24 hours of cabinet nominations that sparked scorn from opponents and alarm from US allies.

Hegseth’s critics described him as unprepared for a pivotal job during a period of global conflict — and a threat to the stability of the US defence establishment. The TV host, who also served in the US military, has proposed firing top military leaders including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

“He is unqualified, and he is the most overtly and extreme political nominee we’ve ever seen. This is a bomb thrower,” said Paul Rieckhoff, founder of Independent Veterans of America, which helps politically independent veterans run for office.

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Rieckhoff said the nomination, coming just a week after Trump’s Republican party won the White House and both houses of Congress, showed the president-elect was past caring about the reaction to his radical agenda for the country.

Trump was “pressing a political mandate in a way we have never seen in American history”, Rieckhoff said.

Even before Hegseth’s nomination, Pentagon officials had grown edgy about Trump’s campaign promises to fire “woke generals” and eliminate diversity programmes in the military.

In private, many seethed at the Hegseth news.

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The Fox News presenter’s nomination was “crazy”, said one senior defence professional — and baffling even to some Republicans who had been reassured by Trump’s pick of Mike Waltz to be his national security adviser and Marco Rubio as his nominee for secretary of state.

Trump’s critics saw it as more evidence of the president-elect’s volatility.

“Trump picking Pete Hegseth is the most hilariously predictably stupid thing,” said Adam Kinzinger, a former Republican congressman.

Hegseth’s possible elevation has already drawn criticism from US allies, amid concerns that the Trump ally’s positions on Israel, Ukraine or Taiwan are not fully known or consistent.

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Trump said Hegseth was “tough, smart and a true believer in America first”, another sign that the president-elect was making loyalty a key requirement of his cabinet appointments.

But former officials warned that Hegseth’s intention to remove top generals, or have Trump fire CQ Brown — who was the first African American to lead a branch of the US Armed Forces — or order the military to take part in mass deportations could spark a significant crisis between service members and the political leadership.

“You’re looking at a potential crisis in civil-military relations here,” said Eric Edelman, vice-chair of the congressionally mandated Commission on National Defense Strategy and a senior Pentagon official during the George W Bush administration.

Hegseth has been a harsh critic of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, blaming them for the armed services’ failure to enlist more people, particularly white men.

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Military recruiters have connected a drop in white male recruits to growing obesity and poor funding of education, among other factors.

But the DEI issue points to an area of potential conflict if Hegseth takes the helm.

“Any general that was involved . . . in any of the DEI, woke shit, has got to go . . . you have to re-establish that trust by putting in no-nonsense war fighters in those positions who aren’t going to cater to the socially correct garbage,” he said in a podcast interview with Shawn Ryan.

Hegseth must win a majority of votes in the Senate to be confirmed, which could be a challenge even though Republicans hold a 53-seat advantage in the chamber. Some senators appeared uncertain.

“I don’t know anything about him,” said Bill Cassidy, a Republican senator from Louisiana on Wednesday.

Asked about Hegseth’s reputation on Capitol Hill, a senior Republican national security adviser replied: “Who? . . . He wasn’t on the radar until yesterday.”

But none of the party’s members have said they would vote against him. Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said on Wednesday he had no concerns with Hegseth, telling CNN he was “delighted” at his nomination.

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The Fox News star’s biggest challenge could be convincing senators — or military leaders — that he is credible as a Pentagon chief, with the managerial chops to lead the nation’s largest bureaucracy or connect with allies and partners.

“I see no evidence that this person has relationships whatsoever with our overseas partners,” Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, told reporters. “How is he going to do when working on the various coalitions we have?”

Additional reporting by Demetri Sevastopulo and Alex Rogers

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I went to IKEA’s new two-storey high street restaurant – it’s perfect for parents and prices start from 50p

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I went to IKEA's new two-storey high street restaurant - it's perfect for parents and prices start from 50p

WHEN most people hear the name IKEA, they probably think of flat-pack furniture rather than food.

But the Swedish retailer has now dipped its foot further into the hospitality sector with the opening of its first standalone restaurant in the UK.

Consumer reporter Sam Walker visited the new IKEA restaurant in west London

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Consumer reporter Sam Walker visited the new IKEA restaurant in west LondonCredit: Peter Jordan
The restaurant is littered with IKEA-themed English and Swedish messages

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The restaurant is littered with IKEA-themed English and Swedish messagesCredit: Peter Jordan
Customers are served their order at counters at the back of the restaurant

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Customers are served their order at counters at the back of the restaurantCredit: Peter Jordan

The 300-square-metre site on busy King Street in Hammersmith, London, was teeming with life when I visited this week, despite opening just last month.

More than 30 staff now work in the restaurant, with enough seating for 75 people across two storeys, which are fronted with floor-to-ceiling glass panels.

Riccardo Minino, commercial manager for IKEA London City, said the west London site was chosen because of its proximity to the high street and local community.

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This follows other moves by IKEA in recent years to open more compact “XS Stores” located on high streets rather than its traditional larger sites on the outskirts of towns and cities.

“We have families and elderly people from different backgrounds coming in,” Riccardo said.

“It’s a mixed social space where people can integrate together.”

The restaurant lends itself to being a space that’s suitable for all demographics in practice.

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There’s free Wi-Fi available to customers, it’s based right next to a packed shopping centre and there’s self-serve coffee machines where you can pick up a cup for just 50p (if you’re an IKEA Family member).

There is also wheelchair access across the whole restaurant, and one tucked away corner with a microwave where parents can heat up their kids’ food, if they don’t fancy anything on the menu.

The restaurant feels like a fast food spot, but without the noise and hustle and bustle associated with a McDonald’s or Burger King.

IKEA is selling Christmas trees perfect for those who don’t have much space – and it’s less than £15

The first sight that greets you as you step inside the restaurant is three self-service screens where you order your food.

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After ordering, you receive a number which is called out by staff members at counters ahead of you for you to collect.

There is also a chilled section on the right hand side offering customers everything from soft drinks to cold desserts.

Those after a coffee can serve themselves from the machines on the left of the restaurant next to a set of stairs.

New IKEA store opening

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IKEA is opening a new store in spring 2025.

A new shop in Churchill Square, Brighton, will replace the former Debenhams, which has been empty since 2021.

The retailer has been moving way from big warehouse stores in recent years and has been targeting smaller plots in city centres.

It has already got a smaller shop in Hammersmith and has unveiled plans for a shop on London’s Oxford Street, replacing Topshop’s flagship store.

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What’s on the menu?

Foodies can choose from a host of cold dishes including cured salmon with a mustard, lemon and dill sauce for £3.50.

There’s also a shrimp and egg open sandwich for the same price that I had a chance to try.

All the ingredients tasted super fresh and the soft doughy bread was a highlight.

One gripe would be that the mayonnaise on top was a touch gloopy, but for £3.50 I couldn’t really complain.

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You can also get a marinated salmon wrap and Indian summer salad for £2.95 from the chilled section.

The children’s menu consists of meatballs with mash and peas, as well as four vegetarian plantballs with mash and peas for £1.95.

But those on a bit more of a budget can get a tomato sauce and pasta sauce for just 95p.

Adults can also get the classic meatball dish, which comes with peas, cream sauce and lingonberry jam for £5.50.

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I also got to try this, with the salty meatballs pairing nicely with the sweet jam, creamy mash and sauce.

Or there is salmon fillet with bean mix, mashed potatoes and a lemon and dill sauce for £6.95.

If you’re after a quick bite, you can snap up a hot dog for 85p or vegetable hot dog for just 60p.

Served until 11am, there is also a breakfast menu to pick from, including a small or large cooked breakfast which comes with bacon, sausage, hash brown, omelette, baked beans and tomato.

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Those looking for a quick caffeine fix can get a cup of coffee for 50p, if signed up to IKEA Family, or £1.25 if you’re not signed up to the loyalty scheme.

There is also soft serve ice cream on the menu for 75p.

Is it worth it?

The Hammersmith restaurant is definitely worth a trip if you live nearby, or happen to be shopping in the area and fancy a bite or drink.

It takes just minutes to order and be served your food as well, so is an ideal spot if you’re looking to get something quickly.

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The prices are pretty competitive too – where else are you going to find a cup of coffee for 50p in and around central London?

The microwave in the corner on the bottom floor is perfect for parents too, and a nice touch.

Customers can pick from cold main meals like the shrimp and egg salad sandwich

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Customers can pick from cold main meals like the shrimp and egg salad sandwichCredit: Peter Jordan
Customers can order food at self-service screens in the middle of the restaurant

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Customers can order food at self-service screens in the middle of the restaurantCredit: Peter Jordan

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

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How vulnerable is the UK to Trumponomics?

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UK chancellor Rachel Reeves does not want to “speculate or jump to conclusions” about what Donald Trump’s election means for the British economy.

“It’s an incredibly important trade relationship for the UK and US as well,” she told the Financial Times. “We want to grow that, as it has grown in recent years.”

Yet even if the UK’s reliance on services shields it from the worst of any fresh tariffs, the country remains vulnerable to global shocks in trade, business confidence and the bond market, say economists.

What are the risks to the UK?

Trump warned during the campaign that he wanted to impose a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports and 10 to 20 per cent on goods from other parts of the world.

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The UK is a relatively small, open economy, which makes it notably vulnerable to changes in import prices. While the EU is by far the UK’s biggest overall trade partner, in national rankings the US comes first when it comes to purchases of UK goods and services.

That said, analysts argue the UK should be less exposed to Trump’s ire than countries that run a large trade surplus with the US — such as China, Germany, or Mexico.

The US had a trade surplus with the UK, including an $8.2bn goods trade surplus in the January-September period, according to official US figures. However, partially because of differences in accounting for exports from the Channel Islands, the UK also reported a trade surplus with the US.

What happens if fresh tariffs come in?

If the UK ends up getting hit by US tariffs, vocal and economically sensitive industries would be affected. The UK exported about £8.2bn of pharmaceuticals, £7.5bn of cars and £5.3bn of mechanical power generators in the 12 months to the end of June 2024, according to official statistics. 

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Nevertheless, a relatively low proportion of UK goods exports overall go to the US — about 14 per cent in 2023, compared with more than 70 per cent for Canada and Mexico, according to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development data. 

The EU accounts for more than 40 per cent of UK goods and services exports, and about half of its goods exports. “The UK would not be in the front line of countries” hit by US tariffs, said Michael Saunders, a former Bank of England rate-setter who is now at Oxford Economics. “The UK is less vulnerable.”

Any inflationary impact from trade tensions would be mitigated if the UK opts against imposing retaliatory tariffs on the US, he added. 

Based on calculations that took into account the importance of the US as a trade partner and a country’s trade openness, Deutsche Bank concluded that the UK was not in the top 20 countries likely to be most affected by trade tariffs.

Total UK exports to the US are only 2 per cent of its GDP. As such, even assuming full pass-through from a fully implemented 10 per cent tariff increase, the GDP impact to Britain would be close to 0.2 per cent at most, said economist Allan Monks at JPMorgan.

What else does the UK sell to the US? 

The UK is the world’s second-largest services exporter after the US, accounting for about 7 per cent of global services exports. The UK will hope these do not get snarled up in Trump’s protectionist dash. 

British services exports made up for more than half of its total exports last year — a record high, according to official statistics. This is much larger than about a fifth for Germany. 

As a share of the economy, services exports account for about 18 per cent of UK GDP, the largest proportion of any G7 country, about double the figure for Germany and three times the shares of Italy and Canada.

“The UK would be little affected by the direct effects of US import tariffs,” said Elliott Jordan-Doak, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “But the direct effects of Mr Trump’s likely tariffs are only the start.”

What are the wider risks?

IMF analysis suggests global growth would suffer a blow if Trump goes ahead with his trade plans, even though the exact details of his tariff proposals remain unclear.

Any trade war between the US and key partners would have a great impact on EU export powerhouses such as Germany — leading to knock-on effects for the UK economy.

Christian Keller, an economist at Barclays, warned that uncertainty caused by the spectre of tariffs would “negatively affect investment and, more generally, confidence levels in Europe” even before they take effect, which may not be until the second half of 2025.

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The German economy is heavily at risk of US tariffs because of its massive manufacturing sector. It is forecast to grow only by 0.6 per cent in 2025 after marginally contracting this year, according to data compiled by Consensus Economics.

The IMF has modelled the combination of tit-for-tat tariffs, a 10-year extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, reduced net migration and higher global borrowing costs. It warned of a 0.8 per cent hit to forecast global economic output next year and a 1.3 per cent blow in 2026.

What about other US policies?

Trump has vowed not only to extend tax cuts passed during his first term but to push through fresh reductions in corporate tax rates as well as reductions at an individual level on income from overtime pay, tips and pensions. He also wants to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.

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The federal debt is projected to swell by an additional $7.5tn in 10 years if Trump follows through with his proposals, according to pre-election analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

This raises the prospect of bond market investors taking fright at US fiscal laxity and associated inflation risks. If this happened, there could be contagion risks for other fiscally vulnerable countries, including the UK, said Sushil Wadhwani, a former BoE policymaker.

Bond market vigilantes could “switch their attention to us, having first had a go at US Treasuries”, he said. “As a small, open economy we can’t insulate ourselves from trouble globally.”

Additional reporting by George Parker

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Assura boosts profits as portfolio value grows to £3.1bn

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Assura boosts profits as portfolio value grows to £3.1bn

The profit boost comes amid a £25.4m rise in investment property value to £3.1bn.

The post Assura boosts profits as portfolio value grows to £3.1bn appeared first on Property Week.

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Jet2 launches London Luton base

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Jet2 launches London Luton base

The carrier will fly to 17 destinations from Luton next summer, including Alicante, Girona, Madeira and Verona

Continue reading Jet2 launches London Luton base at Business Traveller.

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Just Eat’s Grubhub takeout leaves a bitter taste for investors

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Line chart of Share prices rebased in € terms showing Uber and DoorDash have cracked the code on food delivery

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Who didn’t go overboard on takeout during the pandemic and now wants to shed the resulting excess weight? Just Eat Takeaway this week announced a long-anticipated sale of the US subsidiary, Grubhub. The sale valuation is a mere mouthful at $650mn, made up of $500mn of attached debt and just $150mn in cash paid to Just Eat.

Grubhub had been acquired during the 2020 frenzy at a $7.3bn valuation. Just Eat gave up a nearly a third of the company’s overall shares as consideration to Grubhub shareholders. Since the day the deal was announced, Just Eat shares have fallen nearly 90 per cent and its equity value today is just above €2bn. Pandemic-era miscalculations are proving to be very expensive and investors are showing little mercy in punishing 2020-era profligacy.

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Just Eat created what was a “quad” strategy. It had already established food delivery businesses in the Netherlands, UK and Germany with the huge US marketplace as its fourth “profit pool”. The US economics, however, were not very good, pandemic boost aside.

Line chart of Share prices rebased in € terms showing Uber and DoorDash have cracked the code on food delivery

For 2023, Grubhub generated €2bn in revenue but just €125mn in ebitda. Free cash flow is similarly scant. Worse yet, North America gross market volume — the total dollar value of orders — shrunk 14 per cent compared with the year before. The company had been trying to unload Grubhub for some time and even presented group results excluding North America to avoid tainting the European operations.

Yet in the US, rivals DoorDash and Uber Eats are thriving. Meanwhile, Grubhub has disproportionate exposure to New York City, through its Seamless brand, where the municipal government has capped delivery fees and even sought to crack down on e-bike battery usage. 

True, Just Eat deciding to use its inflated share price and valuation multiple in 2020 to acquire Grubhub was a better call than relying on debt and cash. Still, the dilution remains painful. Just Eat shares rallied 15 per cent on Wednesday on the prospect of an end to this saga.

Grubhub’s buyer is Wonder, a New York-based ghost kitchen chain founded by the billionaire entrepreneur Marc Lore. In conjunction with the Grubhub buyout, Wonder said it was raising $250mn in private funding. It can only hope that is enough to fix this dodgy takeout order. 

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sujeet.indap@ft.com 

  

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