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Germany, political extremism and the risks to Ukraine

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The potential impact of Donald Trump on the Ukraine war and the western alliance is well understood. But what happens in Germany could be almost as important.

The Germans are the second-largest national aid donors to Ukraine, after the US, and they are central players in both the EU and Nato. But populist parties, sympathetic to Russia, are on the rise in Germany.

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The Alternative for Germany party (AfD) almost won the elections in the state of Brandenburg on Sunday. This is the party’s third strong performance in a row, after coming first in state elections in Thuringia and a close second in Saxony.

Combine the AfD vote with that of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and something like a third of Germans — and many more in eastern Germany — are voting for populist parties that are militantly anti-migration, hostile to Nato and determined to cut off aid to Ukraine. When Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Bundestag in June, all but four of the AfD’s 77 members boycotted his speech.

The policy stances taken by the AfD and BSW, combined with accusations that many AfD members have an undeclared agenda that is even more extremist, mean that Germany’s traditional parties will refuse to go into coalition with the populists — at least at the national level. But the rise of the political extremes is already having an influence on government policies. Germany’s decision to impose border controls with its EU neighbours reflects the angst about illegal migration that the populists have capitalised on.

Ukraine’s supporters worry that the next policy adjustments will involve a softening of German support for Kyiv. The Ukrainian army is already struggling to hold off Russian forces in the east of the country and is running short of ammunition and troops. A decline in German and American support for Ukraine could help Russia to win the war.

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Even if Russian tanks do not roll into Kyiv, Ukraine’s supporters worry that the Zelenskyy government may soon be forced to make territorial concessions that would allow Vladimir Putin to claim victory. A bad peace deal could put Ukraine’s future as a viable nation in doubt and embolden Putin to threaten other countries.

Ukraine’s friends in Berlin see proliferating signs of a possible softening in German support. While Britain and the US are debating allowing Ukraine to use their long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia, Germany has ruled out supplying its own Taurus missiles.

Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, has said that there can be no further package of financial aid for Ukraine, without making politically impossible compensatory cuts in the budget. The EU’s decision to mobilise some frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine has taken the financial pressure off Berlin for now. But the question of German financial aid is certain to return.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz is lagging badly behind in national polls and looks to be heading for defeat in next September’s federal elections. Ukraine’s most ardent supporters worry that Scholz may be tempted to try to revive his political fortunes, by launching a pre-election peace initiative with Russia.

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Nervousness about what Scholz might be up to was reflected in rumours doing the rounds in Berlin last week that a contact group, composed of members of his Social Democratic party, was in Moscow for secret talks.

These suggestions were waved away in the chancellery. Scholz’s key aides seem almost equally exasperated by the Russophile populists and by the hawks in Berlin that are demanding a sharp increase in aid for Kyiv. They see themselves as representing the moderate German middle on Ukraine. The government’s task, as Scholz sees it, is to keep a divided country together around a basically pro-Ukraine policy.

For the Ukrainians, however — long frustrated by what they regard as the snail-like pace of German aid — any suggestion that the Scholz government may become even more cautious is dismaying. Hawks in Kyiv and Berlin argue that if Putin is not defeated in Ukraine, he will move on to threaten Nato and ultimately Germany itself.

Scholz and his allies insist that he is not naive about the threat posed by Putin. They see the daily evidence of Russian brutality in Ukraine, as well as sabotage and disinformation inside Germany itself. Over the long term, German analysts worry that Russia has now fully converted into an economy primed for war and weapons production. They note that some of the most advanced weaponry that Russia is churning out is not being used in Ukraine, but seems to be being stored for some possible future conflict.

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The German chancellor knows all this. But political leaders live in the moment and their outlooks are almost invariably dominated by domestic politics. Scholz has a very difficult election ahead and would like to run as the peace candidate.

He is also based in Berlin — a city that has seen so much darkness and tragedy — but which now feels a long way from the front lines of Ukraine. Last week, the pavement bars and bike paths near the chancellor’s office were full of people enjoying the late summer sunshine. The idea that dark times are returning to Europe is a hard thing for a government — or for a people — to face.

gideon.rachman@ft.com

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can i start investing with £100?

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Investing for beginners  

Looking to start investing but not sure where to start and how much to start with? This guide can help you get started and be confident about investing because everyone deserves to understand how to grow their money. You can turn £100 into £1000 over time by understanding your personal risk tolerance, whilst leveraging the power of compound growth. You can use a compound interest calculator to see how this tool can help.  

 

Can I start Investing with £100 or less? 

Yes! You don’t have to start with a huge sum of money, gambling away your hard-earned cash to invest. Investing is more accessible than before and with technology, user-friendly platforms anyone can start. To start, all you need is to learn the right approach for you, and the sooner you start, the more time your money grows. Small investments can grow into substantial amounts of money when managed correctly and with patience.  

Set yourself clear financial goals and know your personal risk tolerance so you don’t get ahead of yourself.  

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Simple steps for beginners 

To start investing you will need to know the different types you can invest and choose which one will work best for you.  

  • Exchange traded fund (EFTs) 

This can provide a low-risk investment with a diverse portfolio and a low potential for loss. With an EFT, you get a bundle of assets you can buy and sell, investing in multiple companies helps to keep the risk low as you aren’t relying on only one company to do well.  

This is when you invest in one business at a time. There is a bigger risk as you need the one investment to do well in order to succeed. However, with individual stock you could be offered a bigger return as you would have put everything into it. If you start with £100, the total amount would be invested in one company. If the value of the company increases, you can watch your investment grow before drawing it out. 

This is one of the best ways to invest for beginners, these accounts allow you to invest up to £20,000 per year, any profits you make are also tax free. This means you get to keep more of your return.
Platforms such as Hargreaves Lansdown offer easy access to a Stocks and Shares ISA ideal for beginners. With HL you can open an account with as little as £100 and choose from a range of investments including those mentioned above. As a beginner, these accounts can also give you a ready-made portfolio managed by professionals which will stick to your goals and risk tolerance you set up. This means you won’t have to decide where to invest your money.  

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Tips for Beginners 

  • Understand your personal goals

By understanding and knowing what your goals are then you can determine your risk tolerance and know what is best for you in investing.

When you begin investing and you are starting with a small amount due to not having a lot of disposable income it might be a good idea to set your risk tolerance low, which means investing in a diverse portfolio (EFT). Understanding why you are investing, is it for a particular purchase such as buying a house, or to generally allow your wealth to grow?

If you can, it will benefit you to invest regularly as consistency can yield significant returns due to compounding. This can be £20 per month or more. 

  • Focus on long-term growth 

If you are investing with a small amount to begin with then you should focus on long-term growth and not quick profits. The market trends upward over time so playing the long game can often be a safer bet. 

  • Choose beginner friendly platforms 

Online trading platforms like Hargreaves Lansdown or eToro make investing easy and simple for beginners. They often provide resources and more to help you understand and manage your portfolio and take out the guess work. Many of these will allow you to start with as little as £100. You can find more trading platforms here. 

 

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Turning £100 into £1000 through investing 

Investing can sound scary and if you don’t know where to start then make sure you do your research first. Using trading platforms can help you to set up and manage your portfolio easily. Using these steps, you can see your wealth grow. 

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US proposes banning Chinese software and components in vehicles

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The US Commerce Department on Monday proposed banning Chinese software and hardware for vehicles with a built-in internet connection, in a move that would effectively ban Chinese vehicles from the US market.

The rule follows concerns from the Biden administration about Chinese companies collecting data on American drivers and infrastructure as well as the potential for foreign adversaries to remotely manipulate connected cars on US roads. 

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It is the latest step in a wider US effort to crack down on Chinese vehicles, software and components. The US already this year sharply raised tariffs on Chinese imports, including a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles.

The rule would allow companies to pursue some exceptions to the ban if they could show they are taking mitigating measures such as auditing or site checking. But officials said the rule would essentially ban Chinese vehicles.

“Our assumption as of now is that Chinese vehicles will fall within the prohibition,” a senior official said.

The rule would also ban Russian software and hardware. Biden in February ordered an investigation into whether Chinese connected vehicles pose a security risk to Americans.

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There are few Chinese or Russian cars on the road in the US currently and the rule is designed to neutralise the national security threat they could pose in the future, officials said.

“We’re issuing a proposed rule to address these new national security threats before suppliers, automakers and car components linked to China or Russia become commonplace and widespread in the US automotive sector,” commerce secretary Gina Raimondo said.

She pointed to Europe as a “cautionary tale,” where Chinese cars have quickly flooded the market.

“We know the Chinese playbook, they subsidise, so we’re not going to wait until our roads are filled with cars and the risk is extremely significant,” she said.

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The Biden administration will draft a final rule after a 30-day public comment period, with the goal of publishing it before it leaves office. The software bans included would apply in the 2027 model year while the hardware bans take effect in January 2029 or 2030.

The commerce department is assessing other industries where they might want to take similar action, such as drones or cloud infrastructure, officials said.

Officials said that phasing out Chinese and Russian software from the US market would be relatively simple as there is not much of it, but that hardware would be a greater challenge.

“The hardware supply chain for these systems is slightly more complicated, there is more Chinese hardware,” a senior US official said. “During that time . . . there will need to be a focus on some shifting of that supply chain to other suppliers.”

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The commerce department’s seven-month investigation into risks from connected vehicles revealed a range of possible threats as they become more connected to critical infrastructure, including through charging stations, smart roads and cities, officials said.

Senior US officials outlined a range of possible threats to American consumers, such as collecting data on where drivers live, send their children to school or go to the doctor.

In an extreme example, they said a foreign adversary could shut down or take control of all of their vehicles operating in the US, causing crashes and blocking roads.

“We’ve already seen ample evidence of the PRC pre-positioning malware on our critical infrastructure for the purpose of disruption and sabotage,” US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

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“With potentially millions of vehicles on the road, each with 10 to 15 year lifespans, the risk of disruption and sabotage increases dramatically.”

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Getting clients’ houses in order ahead of the Budget

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Getting clients' houses in order ahead of the Budget
HM Treasury / CC 2.0

The countdown to the Labour government’s first Budget on 30 October is well and truly on, meaning it’s time to get your clients’ houses in order ahead of expected tax changes.

With rumours already circulating on what chancellor Rachel Reeves will announce, the first port of call will be reassuring clients that they should not be making any rash decisions.

Though Reeves has confirmed tax changes are on the table, we cannot know exactly what they will be or how much people will be impacted, so it is important not to try to play a guessing game.

The best course of action will be to ensure clients are making the most of what is on offer to them now, so their tax bill is no higher than necessary.

Inheritance tax

 While Labour has committed to maintaining its manifesto pledge not to hike National Insurance, VAT or income tax, inheritance tax (IHT) may not share the same fate. Make sure clients make the most of the allowances on offer to them now.

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The annual exemption remains at £3,000 for the 2024/25 tax year, and your clients may wish to carry forward any unused annual exemption from the prior tax year.

Similarly, the gifts out of excess income rule means they can gift as much as they wish as long as the payments are regular and do not impact their usual quality of life. If your client is intending to make any gifts this year, be that a one-off gift or setting up regular payments, it is worth making them sooner rather than later to make the most of the current IHT gifting rules.

If the rumours are to be believed, we may see the removal of business property relief, or possible reduction in the nil-rate band, bringing more estates into the IHT net, or perhaps an increase in the IHT headline rate of 40%.

If we assume a client dies leaving £300,000 subject to IHT:

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IHT liability Rate of IHT IHT payable
£300,000 40% £120,000
£300,000 45% £135,000
£300,000 50% £150,000

A 10% increase could lead to a potential increase of £210m tax (10% x £2.1bn IHT tax receipts at June 2024). However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies reported last September that the removal of a number of ‘poorly justified reliefs’ would raise £4.5bn, assuming the wealthier clients do not respond by reducing the size of their estates.

Capital gains tax

Labour’s manifesto lacked clarity on capital gains tax (CGT) and, with confirmation that tax rises are on the cards, there is a chance we could see further changes in this area.

In recent years, CGT allowances have been slashed to help plug the fiscal black hole the UK is suffering, with the annual tax-free allowance for capital gains reducing from £12,300 to £6,000 in 2023 and again to £3,000 from April 2024.

This has heavily impacted those looking to sell shares, other assets or second homes, and the rumoured changes, such as removing the £3,000 allowance completely or increasing the rates to be in line with income tax, could result in a need for swift changes to clients’ financial plans, which may already have had to be adjusted.

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While no changes have been confirmed yet, it is always wise to work closely with your clients to ensure they are making the most of the financial planning techniques to mitigate CGT that are currently on offer.

This may include transferring assets to a spouse, maximising contributions to Isas and, for specific investors, considering enterprise investment schemes (EIS), though this carries significant risk and is therefore only suitable for some.

The annual Isa allowance of £20,000 represents a highly tax efficient way for clients to grow their savings and, should CGT face changes at the Budget, it will be all the more important that as much of their money is held in a tax-free environment as possible.

Pensions

Similarly, for most people up to the age of 75, who can earn tax relief on pension contributions up to 100% of their earnings, with total tax relieved contributions limited by a £60,000 annual allowance, topping up their pension will be one of the most highly effective ways of mitigating their tax bill in the lead up to the Budget.

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Pension contributions will be particularly advantageous for those clients who are higher and additional rate taxpayers as, at present, they can receive up to 40% or 45% tax relief on their contributions, respectively, making pensions an efficient way to save for retirement while also reducing their current overall tax liability.

It is important to help your clients understand and make use of the various allowances available to them. Carrying forward and using any unused pension annual allowance for the last three tax years, or utilising the marriage allowance where applicable, can help shield more of their household income from tax and ensure they are making the most of the current allowances ahead of any potential changes.

Rachael Griffin is tax and financial planning expert at Quilter

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San Francisco’s Dynamic Three Zs

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Hotel Zeppelin’s Game Room

Within San Francisco’s eclectic mix of visitor accommodations, one hotel group stands out as a reflection of the city’s diverse character. The Z Hotels—Zeppelin, Zetta, and Zelos— deliver a blend of modern luxury and urban chic that offers guests not simply a place to stay, but an experience that is as memorable and dynamic as the city itself. Whether you’re drawn to Zeppelin’s throwback charm, Zetta’s playful energy, or Zelos’ sleek modernity, the three hotels provide stylish and comfortable bases from which to explore one of America’s most vibrant cities.

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Hotel Zeppelin

Providing a nod to the 60’s counter culture movement, Hotel Zeppelin will likely bring forth fond memories for all the dead-heads out there. For those too young to remember the Summer of Love, Hotel Zeppelin is simply a really cool place to lay your head for a night or more while staying in the city that defined a movement. 

Hotel Zeppelin’s lobby lounge features a portrait of rocker Grace Slick

Located at the convergence of Union Square, SoMa and the Financial District, Hotel Zeppelin and its 196 comfortably state-of-the-art rooms present a colorful and carefully conceived celebration of a seminal artistic and rebellious period in San Francisco’s history. Unexpected design accents, including spontaneous black light exposed poetry, pay tribute to the bookstores and cafés of the beatnik era. Bill Graham Presents concert posters pay homage to the City’s former psychedelic heartbeat. A retro Grace Slick art feature greets guests upon arrival, while Jerry Garcia, Huey Newton and other icons of the era grace the hallways. The inviting and imaginative design inspires feelings of an underground urban hideaway. 

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PLS on Post bar at Hotel Zeppelin

A lobby lounge features cozy sitting areas, as well as the Zeppelin Café, serving coffee drinks and breakfast items. Additional sustenance is found at lobby-adjacent PLS on Post, serving unique smash burgers and inventive, Instagram-worthy, “Groovy Milkshakes.” (Example: the Choco-Nut, with Reese’s Pieces, peanut butter, peanut butter cups, crushed peanuts, Guittard’s hot fudge, and a Luxardo cherry.)A 1,300 square foot lower level game room offers a playful retreat with Skee ball, shuffleboard, a quick-shot basketball wall, an oversized electronic Bingo board, and two jumbo televisions. 

Hotel Zeppelin, 545 Post St, San Francisco 

Hotel Zetta Playroom loft

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Hotel Zetta

From the classic album-adorned walls to the wine bottle-lined lobby bar, the hip and chic Hotel Zetta stands out with fun, contemporary design that exudes a playful yet upscale atmosphere. (Case in point: the lobby’s glistening chandeliers, which at close glance reveal themselves to be crafted via hundreds of pairs of repurposed eyeglasses.) Located in the heart of San Francisco’s SOMA district, the hotel’s amenities include 116 modern guest rooms, 2,760 square feet of meeting and event space, and the ultimate Playroom—an upstairs loft with shuffleboard, pool, pinball machines, and a photo booth. The lobby located S&R Lounge (short for ‘salvage and rescue’) is another gathering spot for afternoon/evening cocktails, wines and beer. Neighboring restaurant The Cavalier (an upscale British brasserie) is the hotel’s room service purveyor, offering a luxe take on Brit faves like fish ‘n chips and meat pies. Its secret speakeasy is rumored to be a favored spot for visiting luminaries who appreciate the anonymity the space affords. 

Hotel Zetta’s lobby bar

At the end of the day, a hotel is all about the comfort of its rooms, and each of Hotel Zetta’s four room types ensures a sound sleep. Amenities including imported linens, high-speed Internet access, Illy espresso machines and Acca Kappa bath products. Hotel Zetta is a great choice for travelers who appreciate a modern aesthetic combined with a lively, energetic vibe.

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Hotel Zetta 55 5th St, San Francisco

Where Hotels Zeppelin and Zetta are playful, Hotel Zelos is elegant

Hotel Zelos 

Last but not least is Hotel Zelos, located in the historic Pacific Building in the SoMa district. A bit sleeker and slightly more serious than its sister hotels, Hotel Zelos features crisp, chic, clean design within its 202 contemporary and spacious guestrooms and suites of varying size. Like Zeppelin and Zetta, Zelos too features provocative artworks and decor that reflect the city’s animated artistic scene. Yet, where the other two are a bit playful, Zelos is elegant, as illustrated by sleek room design in shades of gray with pops of color here and there. 

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Dirty Habit at Hotel Zelos features a multitude of whiskeys and bourbons. Photo by Fran Miller

Dirty Habit dining room. Photo by Fran Miller

Zelos’ gathering spot is its sultry bar/restaurant Dirty Habit, a favorite of both locals and hotel guests. Inside, Dirty Habit’s softly illuminated bar and dining room promote intimacy, while outside, the twinkle-lit, bamboo-lined rooftop patio with fire pits is one of the city’s best outdoor dining and imbibing spots. The whiskey and bourbon-centric bar features 640 labels. Call your favorite, and order your Old Fashioned classic or smoked. The seasonally-inspired menu includes items like a tasty peach caprese, pimento cheese deviled eggs, oysters, halibut, seared scallops, and a juicy burger with “whiskey onions,” natch.

Hotel Zelos, 12 4th St., San Francisco

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Photos courtesy of Z Hotels, unless otherwise noted

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Creating a Growth-Oriented Workplace: 6 Tips for Employers – Finance Monthly

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Conventional wisdom dictates how an expanding presence on the market and ever-higher quarterly returns embody a company’s growth. While these are its most direct outward indicators, growth, especially the sustainable kind, is about more than short-term monetary gain.

A growth-oriented workplace is people-centric. It’s the kind of workplace employees genuinely enjoy returning to, as their value is recognized and their capabilities are challenged. In a workplace like this, better results appear naturally and continuously due to drive, innovation, and professional pride, not fear and unhealthy competition. Do you want your company to become such a workplace? Then, put the following tips into practice: 

1. Embody the Changes You Wish to Implement

Creating a growth-focused company culture and environment starts with decision-makers. You can’t expect employees to want to grow and do so effectively without providing the necessary support. That means being an engaged leader who actively listens to concerns, doesn’t micromanage, and involves employees in decision-making. After all, they likely know more about certain aspects of your product or how to complete a task better than you do.

2. Define Actionable Goals

Fostering growth for its own sake is aimless and ineffective. Instead, channel such efforts into achieving concrete, attainable goals in a reasonable amount of time. This will help clarify which growth strategies to pursue while eliminating employee confusion and lack of direction.

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It’s a mistake to assume that growth and increased productivity are the same. A team member can spend extra time performing an outdated procedure and achieve better results. Yet, these can still be worse than learning and implementing an improved version of that procedure. Focusing on productivity rather than growth can actually be detrimental, leading to higher job dissatisfaction and turnover while not meeting goals. 

3. Offer Learning Opportunities

Employees worth nurturing are happy to learn and continuously improve. It’s the leadership’s job to encourage them to engage with diverse learning opportunities, preferably ones that align with employees’ strengths and career pursuits. Certification, coaching, mentoring, and even exchanging knowledge in group settings are invaluable growth-fostering tools you should use liberally to benefit everyone. 

4. And an Experimentation-Friendly Environment

Fear of failure is one of the most common pitfalls when pursuing personal and professional development. Yet, failure is also a major source of inspiration and growth potential. Savvy managers realize this and strive to create environments where employees can experiment and fail without reprimand.

This may drastically boost innovation since removing the fear of failure encourages employees to try new approaches and keep working through problems even when faced with initial setbacks.

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Encourage others to question current ways of doing things and devise better alternatives. Recognize their efforts and adopt beneficial changes discovered this way to boost productivity organically. 

5. Don’t Neglect Data Safety & Privacy

Maintaining a safe and stable working environment that is resilient to compromise is among the main prerequisites of any growth-oriented company. After all, how can you pursue betterment if data breaches, malware, and other threats undermine your trustworthiness and financial security?

Controlled and secure access to various services indispensable for business operations is crucial. Password managers offer a cost-effective and streamlined approach to account security since they can create, store, and reinforce any number of unique and complex passwords with multi-factor authentication. Whether your organization is a startup or nonprofit, password managers are essential for keeping your business.

However, when selecting a password manager, you need to be diligent about the provider. Select one with a good track record and reputation. In addition, make sure to keep an eye on the additional features your team should have. Check reviews and the famous password manager comparison table on Reddit to find the best option for your business.

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Maintaining backups of mission-critical files and systems is a must, as is investing in employees’ continued cybersecurity education. Strict compliance with industry standards is a given, especially now that privacy concerns have come under public scrutiny. Ensure that you collect as little data as possible without impeding operations.

6. Implement a Feedback System

Measuring growth depends on unrestricted two-way communication. Employees need to find you approachable enough to exchange ideas, and they’ll also be more amenable to receiving feedback. That’s how you help align their performance with company goals and expectations.

Creating feedback opportunities and guidelines gives people the guidance they need to correct potentially sub-optimal actions before they become issues. If you professionally present feedback and frame it as a learning opportunity, the recipient is far more likely to learn and adapt without feeling disheartened or pressured.

Conclusion

Fostering growth is something you, as a leader, can do at any stage of your company’s development to create a thriving, innovative, and contented workforce. Don’t lose sight of the above tips, and your growth strategy is sure to pay off!

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Reeves calls for new approach to public sector investment

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UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has called for a new approach to public sector investment, in a set-piece speech at the Labour party conference in Liverpool.

On a day when Britain’s governing party sought to overcome internal divisions over its plans to cut winter fuel payments to pensioners, Reeves sought to emphasise a pro-growth agenda ahead of next month’s budget.

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“It is time that the Treasury moved on from just counting the costs of investment to recognising the benefits too,” she said.

“So we are calling time on the ideas of the past,” she added, “calling time on the days when governments stood back, left crucial sectors to fend for themselves, and turned a blind eye to where things are made and who makes them.”

The Chancellor’s speech was interrupted by a heckler protesting against the UK’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict. Earlier in the day, delegates had booed a decision to delay a non-binding vote in which the leadership faces possible defeat over its plans to means test winter fuel payments.

Reeves argued in her speech that Labour had to respond to what she characterised as a £22bn black hole left in its accounts by the previous Conservative government.

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After days in which she has been criticised for a downbeat message, the Chancellor added that October’s Budget would have “real ambition” and that there would be no return to austerity.

“This budget will be a budget for economic growth; it will be a budget for investment,” she said. “My ambition knows no limits, because I can see the prize on offer if we make the right choices now.”

In another remark highlighting the role of the state, she said: “Government cannot just get out of the way and leave markets to their own devices”.

This is a developing story

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