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Greggs shares fall as analysts predict near-£100mn Budget hit

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Shares of Greggs fell as much as 8 per cent on Friday morning after Deutsche Bank predicted the UK bakery chain faces an extra £97mn in costs over the next two years as a result of the recent Budget measures.

The analysts downgraded the Newcastle-based group from hold to sell, predicting the changes would cost it £45.8mn in 2025 and £51.2mn in 2026, as well as suffering a 23 per cent fall in pre-tax profit in each of those years.

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In 2023 Greggs posted a £188.3mn pre-tax profit.

Employers’ national insurance contributions will rise 1.2 percentage points to 15 per cent from April, while the earnings threshold at which the tax kicks in will fall from £9,100 to £5,000, chancellor Rachel Reeves said last week. Minimum hourly pay for adults will increase 6.7 per cent to £12.21, with larger increases for younger staff.

“Greggs has material exposure [to the Budget measures] via its 30,000 employees, coupled with a low — less than 10 per cent — operating margin,” Deutsche Bank said. “We see this as upside risk rather than our base case,” they added.

Greggs declined to comment.

The estimate from Deutsche is the latest example showing how many UK companies are bracing for higher business costs after Reeves unveiled the UK’s biggest tax-raising Budget in a generation. Groups including Marks and Spencer, JD Wetherspoon and BT revealed this week they have to fork out over half a billion pounds in total in extra costs as a result.

Deutsche Bank said price increases would be the most obvious measure to offset the costs for Greggs, known for its affordable offerings.

However “it is difficult to be confident [its rivals] will price-up,” especially in an environment when the recent consumer prices index suggests inflation is slowing, they added.

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Greggs has been expanding as it capitalises on its popularity among consumers who traded down during the cost of living crisis. However the chain reported slowing sales growth in its latest quarter, which it blamed on violent riots and poor weather in the period.

Given its 32,000 employees, Greggs is “going to be facing quite a significant labour cost headwind”, said Patrick Higgins, an analyst at Goodbody. He expects “another inflationary year” to come because of employers’ cost burden with the Budget measures.

“You’ll probably see prices have to drift up to a degree next year. The question is how much can some of the higher-priced competitors take price versus Greggs, which is coming from a more value-focused base,” he said.

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UK’s best holiday park revealed – with nearby sandy beach, heated swimming pool and indoor soft play

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Trevornick Holiday Park in Cornwall has been named the AA Holiday Park of the Year

THE best holiday park in the UK has been named – and it has a heated swimming pool, adventure trails for kids and an indoor soft play area.

Located in Holywell, Cornwall, Trevornick Holiday Park has been named the AA Holiday Park of the Year at the AA Caravan & Camping Awards.

Trevornick Holiday Park in Cornwall has been named the AA Holiday Park of the Year

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Trevornick Holiday Park in Cornwall has been named the AA Holiday Park of the YearCredit: Trevornick
The Cornish holiday park has a heated on-site swimming pool and a splash play zone with tipping buckets and water fountains for kids

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The Cornish holiday park has a heated on-site swimming pool and a splash play zone with tipping buckets and water fountains for kidsCredit: Trevornick

The awards celebrated 12 sites across the country, with a team of experts choosing the winners based on their quality and customer satisfaction.

Simon Numphud, Managing Director at AA Media, said, “As local travel continues to grow and sustainable tourism gains momentum, we are excited to announce the best camping and caravanning destinations for the upcoming year.

“This year’s winners have demonstrated outstanding quality along with a strong dedication to eco-friendly practices and customer satisfaction, making them excellent options for UK travellers.”

It’s easy to see why the Cornish holiday park has won favour with industry experts.

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Family-run Trevornick Holiday Park has an on-site heated swimming pool with a poolside terrace.

For younger guests, there’s also a smaller, shallower pool and a splash zone with tipping buckets, jets and fountains.

There’s also a jacuzzi and a spa for adults.

It’s also a short walk from Holywell Bay Beach – a National Trust site boasting a mile-long stretch of sand.

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The beach is popular with surfers and bodyboarders, with one two-hour surf lesson at a local school available for Trevornick Holiday Park guests.

Inside Haven’s biggest holiday park with huge pool and new tube slides

There are plenty of on-site activities for kids too, including a kids’ club called Wild Tribe.

Kids can take part in craft activities and a talent show.

There’s also the Bear Den – an indoor soft play area – and an on-site arcade with amusement games.

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Outside, there’s a sports field, a playground with swings, slides and climbing ropes, and a forest trail with climbing frames, a balance beam and climbing nets.

There’s also an 18-hole golf course

The evening entertainment includes singers, magicians and comedians.

Other facilities include a washroom, a laundrette, WiFi and an on-site hire shop where guests can rent surfboards and bodyboards.

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There is one on-site restaurant, Woody’s Bar and Restaurant, with guests also able to order takeaway grub like fish and chips and pizzas from the Courtyard Takeaway.

The Farm Club and the Lounge Bar are the two on-site bars at the Cornish holiday park.

There are a range of overnight accommodation options for guests to book, including lodges and holiday cottages

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There are a range of overnight accommodation options for guests to book, including lodges and holiday cottagesCredit: Trevornick
The holiday park has one restaurant on-site

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The holiday park has one restaurant on-siteCredit: Trevornick

An on-site farm shop sells a range of local produce

There are a range of overnight accommodation options to choose from, including static caravans, luxury lodges, holiday cottages and touring pitches.

Sun Online Travel have found three-night stays in a static caravan from £153 per night for four people.

Guests who want to stay during the winter months will need to book overnight accommodation in either the luxury lodges or the holiday cottages, with other options re-opening for the summer season in April.

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Trevornick Holiday Park has been praised by visitors, with a 4/5 star rating on TripAdvisor.

One person wrote: “Brilliant campsite with the most friendly and helpful staff”.

Another added: “We’ve enjoyed holidaying at Trevornick so much, we don’t look anywhere else”.

Three camping tips from an expert

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David Scotland owns camping equipment retailer Outdoor World Direct and knows all about how to make a camping trip run smoothly.

When visiting any campsite this summer it’s important to make sure you’re not making simple mistakes that could ruin your holiday.

Check your tent

David recommends putting your tent up a couple of weeks before you’re due to travel to give you enough time to repair or replace any damaged parts.

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He told Sun Online Travel: “You’d be surprised how many people turn up with broken tents.”

Test the ground

Picking a good spot to pitch your tent is difficult, with lots of things to consider.

One of those should be the condition of the ground you’re putting your tent on top of, according to David.

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He said: “Once you’ve found the perfect spot, test the ground with your pegs before you commit to camping there to make sure the ground is soft enough.”

Don’t nap in your tent

It may seem the perfect place for it, but a nap in a tent could end badly, if it’s done at the wrong time of the day.

David explained: “If the sun’s shining and it’s hot inside your tent – don’t do it!

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“One of our friends nodded off in his tent during a heatwave at Glastonbury and ended up at the medical tent with heatstroke.”

Instead, he recommends finding some shade outside or somewhere well ventilated.

Last week, Robbie revealed England’s top three underrated holiday parks – with private beaches, indoor water parks and jet skis for kids.

And here are the other lesser-known holiday parks named among the best in the UK.

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Trevornick holiday park is within walking distance of Holywell Bay Beach - a popular spot with surfers and dog walkers

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Trevornick holiday park is within walking distance of Holywell Bay Beach – a popular spot with surfers and dog walkersCredit: Trevornick

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DoJ investigates potential price-fixing in PVC pipe market

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PVC pipes for electric conduit and water

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The Department of Justice is investigating potential price-fixing in the market for PVC pipes, which follows allegations of a conspiracy in the $4bn market for municipal water pipes and so-called electrical conduit pipes made in a recent short seller report and civil class action lawsuits.

The probe was disclosed in a filing by manufacturer Otter Tail, which said on Thursday it had received a grand jury subpoena “for production of documents regarding the manufacturing, selling, and pricing of PVC pipe”.

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Plaintiffs in civil lawsuits had alleged that manufacturers, including Otter Tail, used a specialist News Corp-owned trade journal to facilitate price fixing by signalling and coordinating price rises following the Covid pandemic. 

One complaint filed in an Illinois court in August alleged that PVC & Pipe Weekly, published by News Corp’s Opis division, was “the proverbial smoke-filled backroom that enabled the defendants to discuss and signal their pricing activities”.

Otter Tail, a listed power utility that owns manufacturer Northern Pipe, said it fully intended to comply with its obligations and that it was too early to assess the potential impact of the investigation and civil litigation. 

It warned investors that an antitrust violation could have a “material impact” on its financial condition, and said it “believes that there are factual and legal defences to the allegations in the complaints and intends to defend itself accordingly”.

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The DoJ declined to comment.

Municipal water pipes and conduit pipes used to house electrical cables are commodity products typically sold in a variety of dimensions by distributors.

The DoJ investigation follows a report in July by the pseudonymous short seller firm ManBear, which said prices “defy economic logic” and that price inflation had pushed “profits to never-before-seen levels” that were unsustainable. 

ManBear disclosed short positions in Otter Tail, manufacturers Westlake and Atkore, and also Core & Main, a water pipe distributor, which the report alleged had “benefited materially from pipe inflation”.

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ManBear is a low-profile activist that has previously focused on antitrust questions, alleging price fixing in the chicken industry in a 2016 report. Chicken producer Pilgrims Pride subsequently agreed a $110.5mn settlement with the DoJ, while three of its executives and two at a rival were acquitted at trial on antitrust charges.

Otter Tail’s share price has dropped 14 per cent since the ManBear report, to $81.34 on Friday morning.

Core & Main is not a defendant to the civil suits. A spokesperson said it was unaware of any price fixing, that any suggestion of its involvement was baseless and that “honesty and integrity are part of our core principles”.  

Westlake previously declined to comment on pending litigation. Atkore did not respond to requests for comment.

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The civil suits also named News Corp as a defendant. The company said its product “provides newsworthy information to a wide variety of subscribers” and that it intended to fight the lawsuits, which it said were “entirely without merit”.

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Lidl is selling a simple £8 gadget that can slash energy bills by £100s

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Hard-up households can claim £173 energy and supermarket vouchers from TOMORROW

THOSE concerned about their bills this winter can pick up a simple £7.99 gadget that could slash energy costs by hundreds of pounds.

With Brits facing high energy prices and millions of pensioners missing out on the winter fuel payment, many are looking for help with managing costs this year.

This simple plug-in power meter could help you cut your energy bills this winter

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This simple plug-in power meter could help you cut your energy bills this winterCredit: Lidl

Lidl may have the answer thanks to a plug-in power meter that measures how much energy your appliances are really using.

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The £7.99 power meter will measure usage and calculate costs according to your energy tariff and is available in store from Sunday November 10.

It works like a second plug – you slot it into your socket, and then plug your appliance into it.

You can use it for any appliance you plug in, including televisions, freezers, washing machines and dryers.

The information it provides can help households identify which devices are guzzling energy allowing them to change habits to cut their bills.

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To take a read simply plug the monitor into the socket, set the unit price and plug in your appliance before using it as normal to see how much energy it uses in a typical day.

Consumer champion Which? said: “Using an energy monitor is one of the best ways to clearly ascertain how much electricity you’re using on individual appliances  — hopefully helping you to work out where money can be saved in the long run.”

Low Energy Supermarket estimates that a plug-in power monitor will help you to discover savings of £200 per year.

When selecting a power meter always remember to compare statistics and prices, to ensure you’re getting the best deal.

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This can be done using comparison tools such as trolley.co.uk.

A quick internet search showed that Screwfix has a similar model for £18.99 and Amazon is selling a range of devices available for around £10.

Power meters will only measure the energy used from one plug socket, so if you want to know the total amount of energy you’re using around the house you may want to install a smart meter.

But, the benefit of a power meter is that it can help you quickly identify which appliances are using the most power.

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What is the energy price cap?

A dad-of-two went around every room in his house using the device to see how much his appliances cost to run – and was shocked by the results.

The biggest cost drain was his old freezer, which was costing him around 68p a day to run – amounting to a whopping £250 a year.

With everything he learned he was able to make some changes and save a whopping £750 a year.

It is worth remembering that the energy price cap was considerably higher at that time, so savings are unlikely to be as high now.

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The energy price cap is currently £1,568, the lowest figure in two years.

The cap is calculated based on the wholesale price of gas and electricity and what Ofgem thinks an average household will use.

Other ways to monitor energy usage

Smart plugs aren’t the only way to keep track of your energy usage.

Getting a smart meter installed can also help track how much you’re spending on gas and electricity.

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These are different to smart plugs as they look at energy usage around the whole home rather than for each device.

The actual smart meter sends the readings to your supplier so you don’t have to, while the in-home display screen shows you how much you’re spending.

Most energy suppliers provide smart meters and displays for free. However, some users have reported issues with their devices, for example when changing providers.

Your supplier should be able to answer any questions you have.

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How do I calculate my energy bill?

BELOW we reveal how you can calculate your own energy bill.

To calculate how much you pay for your energy bill, you must find out your unit rate for gas and electricity and the standing charge for each fuel type.

The unit rate will usually be shown on your bill in p/kWh.The standing charge is a daily charge that is paid 365 days of the year – irrespective of whether or not you use any gas or electricity.

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You will then need to note down your own annual energy usage from a previous bill.

Once you have these details, you can work out your gas and electricity costs separately.

Multiply your usage in kWh by the unit rate cost in p/kWh for the corresponding fuel type – this will give you your usage costs.

You’ll then need to multiply each standing charge by 365 and add this figure to the totals for your usage – this will then give you your annual costs.

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Divide this figure by 12, and you’ll be able to determine how much you should expect to pay each month from April 1.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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Watchdog to review police handling of abuse claims

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Is Reform UK's plan to get Farage into No 10 mission impossible?
BBC 'Breaking' graphicBBC

The police watchdog will review how Metropolitan Police officers handled allegations of sexual misconduct against former Harrods owner Mohamed Al Fayed.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) will review two cases the Met Police investigated in 2008 and 2013 after the force referred itself.

Hundreds of women have alleged the billionaire, who died last year aged 94, raped or sexually assaulted them.

Police are looking into some claims and Harrods is also settling hundreds of claims.

In a documentary which aired in September, the BBC revealed Al Fayed was accused by 21 women of sexual offences while he was alive.

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Since the documentary aired, more than 400 alleged victims have come forward with allegations of assault, harassment and rape over a period of more than 30 years when they were his employees.

However, questions have been raised around the Met’s investigations.

Of the 21 women who made allegations before September this year, the Met did not pass full files of evidence to prosecutors on 19 of the women who approached them.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

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You can receive Breaking News on a smartphone or tablet via the BBC News App. You can also follow @BBCBreaking on Twitter to get the latest alerts.

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Martin Lewis’ MSE issues message to all Tesco shoppers ahead of crucial deadline

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Martin Lewis’ MSE issues message to all Tesco shoppers ahead of crucial deadline

TESCO shoppers have until the end of the month to spend millions of pounds worth of Clubcard vouchers before they expire.

It comes as the supermarket chain revealed there are millions of points set to expire at the end of the month.

Tesco Clubcard vouchers are set to expire at 11.59 pm on November 30

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Tesco Clubcard vouchers are set to expire at 11.59 pm on November 30Credit: Getty
Martin Lewis' MSE team has revealed how to extend Tesco's clubcard vouchers before they are set to expire

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Martin Lewis’ MSE team has revealed how to extend Tesco’s clubcard vouchers before they are set to expireCredit: ITV

More than £18million in vouchers still need to be used before 11.59pm November 30.

That’s unless you use the handy trick from Martin Lewis‘ MoneySavingExpert to extend the lifespan of the vouchers.

Shoppers on the Clubcard scheme receive vouchers after spending in-store or online, with every 150 points worth £1.50.

These vouchers can be used on your weekly food shop and with any number of Tesco‘s partners including PizzaExpress and Hotels.com.

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Any vouchers spent with a Tesco partner are also worth two times their normal value.

The MSE team have revealed three options to extend the rewards beyond the expiry date, they are:

  • Make a small purchase on the Tesco Clubcard Rewards page or donate to one of the charities the store partners with. The remaining balance is credited back to your Clubcard account as points. So if you spend 50p on an item using a £5 Clubcard voucher, you’ll get 450 points back, which is worth £4.50.
  • Swap your points for vouchers manually or wait for them to be converted with your next statement. It is worth bearing in mind the expiry date for these new vouchers will be two years in the future.
  • Shell out as little as possible. A good option might be a 50p restaurant voucher (worth £1 at your chosen restaurant). You’ll need to do this for each individual voucher, so it’s worth weighing up if it’s actually worth it for smaller denominations. For example, if you’ve a £10 voucher it could be worth it.

How does Tesco’s Clubcard work?

You earn points as you shop, which can then be turned into vouchers for money off food or with Tesco’s partners.

Martin Lewis reveals how parents can get free cereal for their children at major supermarket

You earn one point for each £1 spent, and each point is then worth 1p.

So 150 points gets you £1.50, and you would have to spend £150 to get 150 points.

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You need a minimum of 150 points to request a voucher.

Any vouchers are worth their face value when used in-store at Tesco.

But you can double their worth by spending them at one of the supermarket chain’s partners.

There are over 100 partners you can spend your Clubcard points with, including the RAC, Disney+ and Virgin Atlantic Flying Club.

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Points spent with partners used to be worth triple value, but Tesco changed this to double last year.

Any vouchers transferred into Reward Partner codes expire after six months.

Loyalty card holders also get access to over 8,000 items for less through Clubcard Prices.

RECLAIM LOST CLUBCARD POINTS

Many people lose or forget to use their Tesco vouchers, but there’s an easy way to claw back the last two years of unused vouchers.

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Here’s exactly how to find out if you have any unused vouchers.

The first step is to log into your Tesco Clubcard account on Tesco.com or via the Clubcard app.

You’ll need your name, email address and Clubcard number to hand.

Once you’ve logged in, navigate to “My Clubcard Account” and then click on “Vouchers” to see a full list of any vouchers you still have to spend.

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You can use the code included in your voucher to spend online.

If you want to redeem them in-store, you’ll need to print them off and take them with you. 

What can I get with Tesco Clubcard?

TESCO’S Clubcard scheme allows shoppers to earn points as they shop.

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These points can then be turned into vouchers for money off food at the supermarket, or discounts at other places like restaurants and days out.

Each time you spend £1 in-store and online, you get one point when you scan your Clubcard.

Drivers using the loyalty card get one point for every two litres spent on fuel.

One point equals 1p, so 150 points gets you a £1.50 money-off voucher, for example.

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You can double their worth when you swap them for discounts with “reward partners”.

For example, £12 worth of vouchers can be swapped for a £24 three-month subscription to Disney+.

Or you can swap 50p worth of points for £1 to spend at Hungry Horse pubs.

Where you can spend them changes regularly, and you can check on the Tesco website what’s available now.

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Tesco shoppers can also get Clubcard prices when they have the loyalty card.

The discounted items change regularly and without a Clubcard you’ll pay a higher price.

These Clubcard prices are usually labelled on shelves, along with the non-member price.

But it’s worth noting that just because it’s discounted doesn’t necessarily make it the cheapest around, and you should compare prices to find the best deal.

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You can sign up to get a Tesco Clubcard in store or online via the Tesco website.

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Verizon-Frontier deal goes to the wire as investors demand higher price

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Exterior of Frontier’s headquarters

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Verizon’s $20bn acquisition of Frontier Communications faces a nail-biting showdown at an investor meeting next week after some of the biggest shareholders in the fibre network company demanded at least a 30 per cent price increase.

Canada-based BCE’s proposed $3.6bn acquisition of Ziply this week — a telco with a fibre network similar to that of Frontier — has become a flashpoint.

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The Frontier investors have told Verizon and the Frontier board that the valuation metrics in the Ziply deal imply a far higher purchase price for Frontier, citing the long-term growth prospects for fibre broadband service.

According to an analysis prepared by Frontier’s shareholders, the company’s projected growth makes its shares worth more than $50 a share, far higher than the deal price of $38.50.

Glendon Capital Management and Cerberus Capital Management, which combined own about 17 per cent of Frontier shares, are among the investors angling for a higher deal price, said multiple people familiar with the matter.

Ares Management, the company’s single largest shareholder with about a 15 per cent stake, has not indicated which way it plans to vote, said people familiar with the matter. It has hired boutique bank Houlihan Lokey to evaluate its options.

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Verizon’s offer in early September represented a 44 per cent premium over Frontier’s trading range at the time. The company has said its offer is fair and it does not plan to raise the price. But the acquisition is also central to the company’s strategy of expanding its fibre internet capabilities, which shareholders view as a sign it will not let the buyout collapse.

Frontier has said that if shareholders reject the deal terms, the company will return to its strategy as a standalone business. The company’s share price was about $34 on Friday. Some analysts are sceptical of the shareholders’ lofty Frontier valuation.

“Frontier’s shareholders’ choice is really between $38.50 per share in cash or a go-it-alone future with the risks and opportunities that journey presents,” Nick Del Deo, a managing director at MoffettNathanson, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

Verizon and Frontier declined to comment.

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The proposed deal suffered additional blows in recent days, after the closely watched proxy advisers Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis directed investors to abstain from voting next week, which in effect counts as rejecting the $38.50 price.

“Given the possibility of substantially more value down the line, and the lack of urgency to approve a transaction that is not projected to close for more than a year, it seems reasonable for shareholders to exercise the optionality of abstaining for the time being,” ISS said in its report on November 1.

Frontier filed for bankruptcy protection in 2020 after the acquisition of a regional telecoms business resulted in an unsustainable debt load. It emerged from bankruptcy in 2021, in which it transferred equity control to its bondholders, allowing it to shed billions of dollars of liabilities. Shortly after, it relisted on the stock market.

Some of the company’s biggest shareholders — including Ares, Cerberus and Glendon — have been with the company since bankruptcy. The investors were some of the group’s biggest noteholders, with Cerberus owning more than $500mn of its debt, according to court filings.

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The activist hedge fund Jana Partners successfully pushed Frontier into starting a sale process earlier this year, before the company’s management had initially planned.

Recent deals between Verizon’s rivals have upped the competition in the sector, with T-Mobile earlier this year announcing joint ventures with private equity groups EQT and KKR to buy Lumos and Metronet, respectively.

Telco companies that historically relied on legacy copper wire businesses, such as Frontier, have been investing heavily in fibre networks to compete with cable broadband providers. While their traditional businesses have suffered in recent years, there is renewed interest in fibre internet buildouts as data loads explode with coming artificial intelligence applications.

“This is a true game of chicken,” said one person involved in the transaction.

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Additional reporting by James Fontanella-Khan and Eric Platt in New York

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