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GSK’s problem is it has more than one source of pain

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Zantac may have been a heartburn medicine but it caused one almighty headache for GSK chief executive Emma Walmsley. Finally, it looks as though that particular aggravation is clearing after GSK said late on Wednesday that it was prepared to pay up to $2.2bn to settle 93 per cent of legal cases linked to Zantac.

It still has a further 6,000 cases to either settle or defend but the resolution of 80,000 (with no admission of liability) means that GSK “becomes investable again,” said Emmanuel Papadakis of Deutsche Bank Research. Unfortunately for Walmsley, GSK has more than one source of pain.

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Zantac has played havoc with GSK shares ever since a Morgan Stanley note published in August 2022 estimated the company’s potential liability at anywhere between $3bn and $27bn. Markets assumed the worst: GSK’s market capitalisation plunged almost £13bn as a result, just after it had demerged its consumer health business Haleon.

By early this year, it had recovered to pre-August 2022 levels. But investors’ acute nervousness over Zantac was demonstrated again in early June when more than £6bn was knocked off GSK’s market cap in one day following a legal setback in Delaware, the US state that accounted for the bulk of Zantac cases.

Line chart of GSK’s market capitalisation (£bn) showing that Zantac liability fears have hampered GSK's progress

This settlement is far lower than the worst-case scenario. If anything, it was surprising that the share price reaction, up 5 per cent in response, was not more enthusiastic. That can be explained by the fact investors now have to judge GSK on its own merits — and long-standing concerns about its pipeline have not gone away.

GSK has a long-term target to improve sales to more than £38bn by 2031, versus £30.3bn in 2023. Even though this is a mere trifle compared with AstraZeneca’s 2030 $80bn sales goal, the market does not yet believe GSK can reach it. Visible Alpha estimates for GSK suggest sales at the end of 2030 of £35.7bn. A key problem is the patent expiries from 2028 on HIV medicines containing dolutegravir.

Walmsley has emphasised the group’s ability to increase vaccine sales. The plan had been going well: Arexy, its vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), quickly reached blockbuster status. But this summer, a US health committee narrowed the age recommendation for RSV vaccine use. Analysts tracking recent prescriptions of Arexy say they are down even more than expected. There is similar scepticism about whether global sales of GSK’s shingles vaccine can make up for a US slowdown.

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Walmsley can ill-afford a big celebration over the Zantac settlement. An unpleasant ache has gone for GSK. But finding a balm to alleviate pipeline doubts is a tough task indeed.

nathalie.thomas@ft.com

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Rachel Reeves weighs capital gains tax hike to help plug UK’s budget gap

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Rachel Reeves is considering an increase in capital gains tax as part of a multibillion-pound effort to fill a “black hole” in the public finances in her Budget later this month, according to government insiders. 

The chancellor has been examining Treasury modelling on the impact of a range of changes to the capital gains tax regime, as part of an effort by the new government to ensure individuals with the “broadest shoulders” bear the burden of efforts to raise revenue. 

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Capital gains tax, or CGT, is charged on increase in the value of assets such as second homes and shares and raises around £15bn a year.

Reforming CGT is highly complex given it is levied at a range of rates across different asset classes, and also because of wealthy individuals’ ability to shift assets to income or change jurisdiction to mitigate the impact. The Institute for Fiscal Studies previously suggested that levying CGT at the same levels as income tax could raise high single-digit billions in revenue. 

Officials have suggested the Treasury will need to raise upwards of £20bn a year from a range of tax measures as it attempts to tackle the legacy of an overspend in 2024-25 and address resulting spending pressures in future years. Reeves also needs to find ways to keep her promise not to return to “austerity” by mitigating real-terms cuts to departmental spending over the course of the decade. 

The Treasury has begun notifying its key Budget measures to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the fiscal watchdog, after receiving an updated set of economic and fiscal forecasts this week. 

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While the Budget package to be presented on October 30 has yet to be settled, Reeves has been looking for ways of ensuring wealthy taxpayers are part of the solution — even as Labour seeks to woo global investors ahead of a closely watched investment summit on Monday. 

As part of her efforts to raise taxes on the wealthiest, Reeves is also expected to consider changes to inheritance tax.

The Treasury is not, however, considering the introduction of a so-called exit tax on investors who decide to leave the country to avoid the impact of big gains on asset values, insiders said. 

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Earlier on Thursday, the Guardian reported Reeves had examined increases in CGT to as high as 39 per cent. A Treasury spokesperson said the figure “is not based on government modelling — we do not recognise it. This is pure speculation.”

Previous Conservative chancellors repeatedly tested whether capital gains tax rates should be moved closer to income tax rates.

However, people who served in the Treasury under Tory chancellors said their modelling showed that big rises in CGT could lead to a loss of revenue, due to the relatively small number of people who paid the tax.

“The issue is whether you actually raise money given 350,000 people is such a small number and they can change behaviour,” said one senior Treasury official, in a reference to the narrow CGT tax base.

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One Tory Treasury veteran said: “We were constantly trying to find the optimum rate to incentivise investment because that would increase tax revenues. Modelling took place all the time.”

Jeremy Hunt, former chancellor, raised £300mn a year — although only in the short term — by reducing capital gains tax rates on property sales from 28 per cent to 24 per cent, thus bringing forward transactions.

However the Treasury will need to raise far more than is likely to be yielded from any CGT changes if it is to tackle the wider budgetary pressures it now faces. 

The IFS said this week that the government would need to raise £25bn in tax if it wants to boost spending increases to a rate that is line with the growth of the overall economy — far higher than current plans. 

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This week Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, opened the door to a multibillion-pound increase in employer national insurance contributions as the government scrabbles for new sources of revenue. 

Labour is, however, hamstrung by manifesto pledges to protect working people by not raising income tax, national insurance or VAT. 

Senior Conservatives suspect slightly higher growth forecasts from the OBR could help Reeves shelve some tax rises.

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‘Three Cs’ design you MUST spot on your 50p to make it worth 280 times more after bidding war – can you find one?

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‘Three Cs’ design you MUST spot on your 50p to make it worth 280 times more after bidding war - can you find one?

A SPECIFIC “three Cs” design on a 50p coin made it worth hundreds of times more after an intense bidding war.

Just 200,000 of the rare pieces were ever made, giving it the lowest mintage of all circulating 50p coins.

The Atlantic Salmon 50p features "three Cs" on its reverse side

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The Atlantic Salmon 50p features “three Cs” on its reverse sideCredit: PA
One recently sold for £142 on eBay

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One recently sold for £142 on eBayCredit: EBay

The Atlantic Salmon 50p is now officially the rarest of its type in circulation after dethroning the Kew Gardens 50p.

The coin was struck to highlight the plight of the species of fish, whose population is in decline.

Its design features a salmon emerging from the water alongside a pattern of “three Cs.”

The head side of the coin features King Charles III.

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The 50p piece started entering general circulation at the end of 2023 as part of a new series of coins marking the ascension of King Charles to the throne.

As the least common 50p in circulation, it has been in high demand from coin collectors.

One of the pieces recently sold for more than 280 times its value on eBay.

After 23 competitive bids for the coin, it eventually sold for £142.

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The Royal Mint has revealed 200,000 of the pieces were sent to banks and post offices across the UK at the end of last year.

There were 210,000 Kew Gardens 50p coins put into circulation 15 years ago which had made it the rarest of the 50ps for over a decade.

How to spot a 50p worth £50 and mule 20p that sells for £30

But the latest mintage figures from The Royal Mint show its spot has now been taken by the Atlantic Salmon 50p.

Rebecca Morgan, director of commemorative coins at The Royal Mint said: “The releasing of mintage figures is an eagerly anticipated event among the coin collecting community – and this year is particularly exciting as we reveal the Atlantic Salmon as the rarest 50p in circulation.

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“For the first time in 15 years, the highly collectable Kew Gardens 50p loses its top spot as the rarest in circulation with the Atlantic Salmon 50p splashing its way to number one.”

Top 10 rarest 50p coins

HERE are the top 10 rarest 50p coins by mintage.

  1. 2023 Atlantic Salmon – 200,000
  2. 2009 Kew Gardens – 210,000
  3. 2011 Olympic Football – 1,125,000
  4. 2011 Olympic Wrestling UK – 1,129,500
  5. 2011 Olympic Judo – 1,161,500
  6. 2011 Olympic Triathlon – 1,163,500
  7. 2018 Peter Rabbit – 1,400,000
  8. 2018 Flopsy Bunny – 1,400,000
  9. 2011 Olympic Tennis – 1,454,000
  10. 2011 Olympic Goalball – 1,615,000

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Lebanon’s battered bonds defy deepening conflict to stage rally

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Lebanon’s practically worthless US dollar bonds have rallied following Israel’s invasion of the country, as investors bet that the weakening of Hizbollah raised the chances of a ceasefire as the first step to ending its long default.

Prices for debts that were once worth $30bn at face value rose above 8.5 cents on the dollar on Thursday, extending their gains from 6 cents last month following Israel’s killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the militant group’s leader.

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The advances pushed the bonds to their highest levels since before Hizbollah began firing rockets towards Israel last year, after the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas. Even so, the prices still indicate that investors will receive very small repayments on their bonds, more than four years after Lebanon defaulted.

Lebanon has been unable to restructure the debt while it has lacked a government and a plan to fix the country’s broken financial system, which precipitated the default when it collapsed in late 2019.

The bonds remain thinly traded, meaning a handful of deals can move prices. Their near worthlessness also has left them primed to increase on signs of even minor improvement in the country’s financial situation.

“Right now, the correct way to think about this is that we have two stages, solving the ceasefire and solving the political stalemate. Current valuations are putting higher chances on moving forward with the ceasefire,” said Bruno Gennari, emerging markets strategist at KNG Securities.

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Israeli bombings and displacement orders targeting one quarter of the country’s territory have piled more ruin on to Lebanon’s shattered economy in recent days, after half a decade of near constant crisis.

Lebanon heavily borrowed on the eurobond market to bankroll massive deficits before the freezing of tens of billions of dollars in foreign currency deposits in 2019 set off a financial crisis.

Some analysts have estimated that an eventual writedown of the dollar bonds could be over 80 per cent, given the likely costs to the state to resolve the banking system.

But a restructuring will be impossible without political leadership to begin negotiations with creditors and the IMF. Lebanon has yet to enact economic and political reforms demanded by the international community to unlock billions of dollars in investment and aid. Fitch Ratings even stopped rating the eurobonds in July because Lebanon no longer publishes up to date fiscal information.

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“Lebanon’s fragmented political environment, the caretaker government’s limited legal capacity to enact legislation, and delays in appointing key officials — including a new president — continue to impede the reforms necessary to kick-start economic recovery and emergence from default,” credit rating agency S&P Global said this week.

This week the US signalled its support for the election of a new president, which some in Lebanon’s fractured political system have called for but has been held back by Hizbollah’s veto for two years.

But analysts said even if a president could soon take office, progress on restructuring the debt would also need commitment to reforms and talks with the IMF.

“It could be read as positive news in the long term for addressing the political stalemate, but I think that is looking too much into the future,” Gennari said. “There are many steps in between.”

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Four reasons why your PIP payments could be STOPPED – and checks to make to avoid losing cash

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Four reasons why your PIP payments could be STOPPED – and checks to make to avoid losing cash

MILLIONS suffering from long-term health conditions or disabilities get extra help through Personal Independence Payment (PIP).

The payments can be worth as much as £108.55 a week, so if you don’t claim it already, it could be a good idea to check if you’re eligible.

People with long-term health conditions can get help through PIP

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People with long-term health conditions can get help through PIPCredit: Alamy

PIP is available to those aged 16 or over but have not yet reached the state pension age.

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Crucially, you must also have a health condition or disability where you either have had difficulties with daily living or getting around – or both- for three months.

You should also expect these difficulties to continue for at least nine months (unless you’re terminally ill with less than 12 months to live).

But even if you’ve got an active claim for PIP, there are some scenarios where they can be stopped.

Tom Farquhar, benefits information specialist at disability charity Scope, has shed light on four of them.

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He said last year: “When it comes to your PIP there are certain changes that you might need to report to stop your benefit being cut off by the DWP.

“There are risks associated with not reporting a change in your situation, including overpayment or even prosecution.

“That’s why it’s important to report the following changes to DWP as soon as possible.”

Going into hospital

If you have to go into hospital for more than 28 days, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) will pause your PIP.

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However, if you are under 18 or paying for a private hospital stay, payments won’t be stopped.

Ireland AM host Tommy Bowe slams government for ‘breaking own rules’

It’s worth noting if you leave the hospital before the 28 days is up, you can still have payments stopped if you go back.

Tom said: “If you go back to hospital within 28 days of leaving, it will count as the same stay and add up.”

As an example, someone might go to hospital for 20 days and then go home.

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After 10 days at home, they might go back into hospital.

The DWP would stop paying this person PIP if they were in hospital for more than eight days.

The same 28-day rule applies if you go into a care home.

Again, if you are paying for the care home privately this rule won’t affect you.

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Going to prison

The DWP will stop PIP payments if you are in prison or held in custody for 28 days or longer.

Once you are no longer in prison or custody it is your responsibility to contact the DWP and tell them you are out.

Tom said: “Once you are no longer in prison or custody you’ll need to contact the them and they’ll start payments up again.”

You go abroad

If you leave EnglandScotland or Wales, for more than 13 weeks the DWP will stop any PIP payments.

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If you leave these same countries because you need medical treatment, you have longer until you stop receiving payments.

Tom said: “If you leave Great Britain for longer than 13 weeks, or 26 weeks if you go for medical treatment, the DWP will stop your PIP payment.”

Your personal circumstances change

If your personal details change, such as name or address, or your doctor changes you could see PIP payments stop.

So you should tell the DWP as soon as possible about any changes to avoid this.

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Any changes to your personal circumstances might impact what elements of PIP you can receive too.

Tom said: “It’s important to report these changes so that you can get the correct amount of PIP for your needs, and to avoid being cut off or prosecution for not relaying updates.”

You can update the DWP on any change in circumstances via their enquiry line – 0800 121 4433.

If your PIP payments have stopped and you don’t know why, you can call Scope for help on 0808 800 3333.

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The helpline is open seven days a week, Monday to Friday between 9am and 6pm, and 10am to 6pm at the weekends.

Alternatively, you can email helpline@scope.org.uk.

What is PIP?

PIP is a benefit given to people suffering from a long-term physical or mental health condition or disability.

This condition might make it hard for you to carry out certain everyday tasks or get around.

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You can get the benefit even if you’re working, have savings or are getting most other benefits.

There are two parts to PIP – the daily living part and the mobility part.

You might be entitled to the daily living part of PIP if you need help with:

  • Eating, drinking or preparing food
  • Washing, bathing and using the toilet
  • Dressing and undressing
  • Reading and communicating
  • Managing your medicines or treatments
  • Making decisions about money
  • Socialising and being around other people

You might be entitled to the mobility part if you need help with:

  • Working out a route and following it
  • Physically moving around
  • Leaving your home

PIP is made up of two parts and whether you get one or both of these depends on how severely your condition affects you.

How much you get also depends on how your condition affects you.

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You may get the mobility part of PIP if you need help going out or moving around. The weekly rate for this is either £26.90 or £71.

While on the daily living part of PIP, the weekly rate is either £68.10 or £101.75 – and you could get both elements, so up to £172.75 in total.

You’ll be assessed by a health professional to work out the level of help you can get and your rate will be regularly reviewed to make sure you’re getting the right support.

Who is eligible?

PIP is available to people aged 16 or over but not yet at the state pension age.

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You must have lived in England or Wales for at least two of the last three years, and be in one of these countries when you apply.

The process is different in Northern Ireland, and there are additional rules if you live abroad or if you’re not a British citizen.

In Scotland, you will need to apply for Adult Disability Payment (ADP) instead.

Crucially, you must also have a health condition or disability where you either have had difficulties with daily living or getting around (or both) for three months, and you expect these difficulties to continue for at least nine months (unless you’re terminally ill with less than six months to live).

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You can claim PIP at the same time as other benefits, except the armed forces independence payment.

If you receive constant attendance allowance you will receive less of the daily living part of PIP.

If you get war pensioners‘ mobility supplement you will not get the mobility part of PIP.

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Live at the Village Vanguard album review — twisty quartet jazz

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Saxophonist Ben Wendel’s credits range from Snoop Dogg and Prince to high-flying jazz musicians Terence Blanchard and Bill Frisell. His many production and recording credits include electronic musician/producer Daedelus and the Dakah Hip-Hop Orchestra. He has also released a dozen albums with the jazz-meets-alt-rock collective Kneebody, which he co-founded in 2001.

Eclectic by design, the saxophonist remains firmly in the jazz camp, as evidenced by the nine albums released under his own name. His last, All One, used orchestral brass to showcase a stylistic brew of collaborative guests. On this live album Wendel distils his broad aesthetic sweep into enticing themes and the twisty narratives of a contemporary sax-and-rhythm quartet. Recording quality is excellent and, as on many performances recorded at the Village Vanguard, the playing is inspired.

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The set opens with Wendel unaccompanied on furry-toned tenor sax, spinning melodies on the fly. Bassist Linda May Han Oh enters with a firm repeated riff, drums join in with a rattle and splash and Wendel probes at the pulse. The theme, “Lu”, is introduced some two minutes in, launching a riveting ebb-and-flow slow burn. The brittle stabs and twists of “Proof” then unfold at speed, the cowboy song “On the Trail” gains an off-kilter riff and mood-piece “Scosh” is subtly harmonised.

Album cover of ‘Understory: Live at the Village Vanguard’ by Ben Wendel

But the meat of the album is the thrilling interplay and probing improvisations of a disciplined working band. Wendel’s tonal control, fast runs and slurs into the upper range keep emotions stoked and pianist Gerald Clayton excites with subtle harmonies, exemplary technique and lyrical twists. That cowboy song, first given a modern jazz makeover by Jimmy Heath in 1966, now burns with tricksy rhythms from drummer Obed Calvaire and finds Oh’s woody-toned double bass completing an immaculate band sound.

Elsewhere, “Jean and Renata” delicately unfolds in the middle range and “I Saw You Say” is soulful and intense. The contemplative “Tao” closes the set with lyrical solos, a gently rocking pulse and echoes of country soul.

★★★★☆

Understory: Live at the Village Vanguardis released by Edition

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Most valuable old unwanted tech that could earn you £450 in time for Christmas

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Most valuable old unwanted tech that could earn you £450 in time for Christmas

MILLIONS of UK homes are full of unwanted tech that could be turned into much-needed cash for the festive season

With Christmas fast approaching and many Brits feeling the pressure to keep their festive spending in check, an easy way to make some extra cash could be sitting right under your nose.

By recycling old tech, Brits could make up to £450 this year

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By recycling old tech, Brits could make up to £450 this year

According to new research, you could make up to £450 by recycling unwanted devices like phones, laptops and tablets, all just in time to help cover the cost of gifts, decorations, and festive days out.

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Virgin Media O2’s recent study reveals that 68% of Brits are keen to recycle their old tech for cash, with a large number ready to sell unused consoles or smartphones.

With nearly half of the population expecting their Christmas spending to exceed last year’s, this presents a fantastic opportunity for anyone looking to boost their holiday budget.

On average, households in the UK have four unused devices lying around, according to Virgin Media O2.

Read more on selling tech

The mobile provider has shared which gadgets can get you the most money through its recycling pay-out scheme, adding up to a tidy £446 if you have them all.

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Here’s a breakdown of what you could make for popular tech items through O2 Recycle:

  • Smartphones: £136.46
  • Tablets: £144.52
  • Consoles: £80.16
  • Laptops/MacBooks: £205.17
  • Earbuds: £53.52
  • Wearables/Smartwatches: £81.36

This means that a couple of devices could see you pocketing a decent sum to spend on your festive celebrations.

If you have a few devices lying around that you no longer use, it’s worth getting them appraised and exchanging them for some much-needed cash.

I make £93,000 a year selling charms – here’s how you can rake in the cash too & you should ditch selling on Etsy

With 02’s recycling scheme you will receive cash to recycle your old devices but you can also opt for credit to put towards a new device.

To do it you just have to register by searching for your device on the O2 Recycle website and adding it to your basket.

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Make sure you prepare your device by deleting any personal data, removing the SIM or memory card.

You can then send off your device by booking a courier for pickup or taking it to the Post Office.

Once O2 receives and assesses your device, you’ll receive payment—either credited to your O2 account or paid via BACS or cheque.

Whilst this scheme is great to get some cash out of your old tech junk, it’s not the only way to get paid for recycling your old tech.

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You could also consider selling old tech to websites such as Decluttr, musicMagpie or Tech2Cash.

These websites allow you to trade in old-gadgets in exchange for cash, you can also rank your quotes by how much the recycler will pay.

For those who prefer to go in store, stores such as CEX or Game allow you trade in devices in store in exchange for cash or even store vouchers which can be handy when buying new gadgets.

TOP TIPS

If you’re wondering how to get the best price for your unwanted tech, here are some top tips:

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Always compare prices

Don’t settle for the first offer you get.

Use websites like Compare and Recycle to check what different companies are offering for your devices.

The difference in price can be as much as £87, so it pays to shop around.

Condition Matters

The better condition your gadgets are in, the higher the payout.

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Take good care of your items before selling them, and be honest about their condition to avoid a lower pay-out when the company inspects them.

Sell Smart

Whether you opt to use online platforms like eBay or Facebook Marketplace, or kiosks like ecoATM, you can often get a better deal if you’re willing to put in a little more effort.

Just make sure you compare quotes first.

Take Advantage of Cashback

Some platforms, like TopCashback and Quidco, offer bonus cashback when you sell your tech through specific services.

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This is a great way to get a little extra money for your gadgets.

DON’T MISS OUT

Tech depreciates quickly, so it’s best to sell your old devices sooner rather than later.

According to experts at Compare and Recycle, devices like iPhones can lose up to 20 per cent of their value within just three months of a new model’s release.

The sooner you sell, the better your pay-out.

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From old smartphones and laptops to game consoles and wearables, there’s no shortage of gadgets just waiting to be turned into cash.

So, why not dig through those drawers, collect your unwanted devices, and sell them for extra cash this Christmas?

With up to £450 potentially waiting for you, this could be the easiest money you make in time for the festive season.

Meanwhile, if you’re considering other ways to make money, you might want to start a side hustle.

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This supersaver managed to put £20,000 away thanks to shopping smart and side hustles.

Elsewhere, an expert reveals three easy ideas that can earn you £5000 before Christmas – including a side hustle that requires no effort.

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