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How election day unfolded in the US

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This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘How election day unfolded in the US’

Sonja Hutson
Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Wednesday, November 6th, and this is your FT News Briefing.

Americans closed out a hard-fought election yesterday. And I’ll take you through the numbers of what has been the most expensive presidential contest in US history. Plus, Germany is racing against the clock to pass a new budget. 

Guy Chazan
The problem is that the government has submitted a draft budget to the German parliament, but there is an enormous hole in it. 

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Sonja Hutson
I’m Sonja Hutson, and here’s the news you need to start your day.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Voters across the US yesterday raced to cast their ballots in what has been billed as the most consequential election in decades. 

Jen Eldridge
A lot of different emotions, a lot of different opinions to the point where I can’t talk about it with my friends or family or co-workers. 

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Sonja Hutson
And it has been a political rollercoaster, to say the least. 

Xander Dunn
It’s just such a divisive time. And to be honest, I’m looking forward to everything just being over. 

Sonja Hutson
People in battleground states have faced the most pressure from this election. My colleague Steff Chávez was out talking to voters in Wisconsin yesterday, and she joins me now to tell me what she saw and heard. Hi, Steff. 

Steff Chávez
Hi, Sonja. 

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Sonja Hutson
So how were people feeling about the election in Wisconsin? 

Steff Chávez
I think there were all sorts of emotions and it ranged from, you know, real hope and confidence in, you know, people’s specific candidates, but also genuine anxiety and fear. 

And so how has the vibe been this election? 

Jen Eldridge
Really intense. 

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Steff Chávez
So I went to one polling place in downtown Milwaukee, which is a Democratic stronghold. I met Jen Eldridge, a 44-year-old woman who was casting her ballot for Kamala Harris, and she identified herself as an independent voter. 

Jen Eldridge
So I’m one of those voters that you want on your side because I can go either way. I vote for the candidate that closely represents my values. 

Steff Chávez
She said the most important thing to her in making her choice was reproductive freedom. 

Jen Eldridge
Women’s issues and women’s rights. My reproductive rights are very important to me. 

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Steff Chávez
Which is really getting at a major theme of this election. It is one of the Democrats’ strongest issue, and Harris is counting on women in particular to turn out to vote and maybe even flip their votes to try and get some of their reproductive rights back. 

Sonja Hutson
So, you know, you mentioned that Milwaukee is a Democratic stronghold. Where else did you go in the area to talk to voters who maybe leaned a little bit more Republican? 

Steff Chávez
So I went out to Waukesha county, which is one of the Milwaukee suburbs. While I was there, I met Jeff Powell, a life-long Republican, who had such a hard time deciding who to vote for, that he made a game-time decision in the voting booth. 

Jeff Powell
I kept mulling it back and forth, but I finally voted. 

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Steff Chávez
He said that he really didn’t like either candidate. 

Jeff Powell
For a nation that’s as prosperous and educated as our nation is, we got two delinquents that are running for president. 

Steff Chávez
He wouldn’t tell me who he voted for, but he said that the most important factor in his decision was immigration, but also things like the growing budget deficit and education. 

Jeff Powell
This election is probably the most divisive election. I’ve been voting since I was 21. 

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Steff Chávez
I also met a couple, Drew and Mike, who had their eight-day-old baby with them at the polling place.

They both voted for Trump. They said the most important reasons were the economy and immigration. 

Drew and Mike
Just putting our country first. We got a lot of issues outside of our country that are important, and we need security here first. 

Steff Chávez
The economy and immigration are two of the Republicans’ strongest issues. Despite the fact that Trump has struggled on the abortion topic, Republicans are hoping that can propel him to victory. 

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Sonja Hutson
Now, Steff, one big concern leading up to this day has been acts of political violence. You know, I’m in downtown DC and there are tons of buildings that have been boarded up over the past couple of days. Have we seen reports of violence or intimidation at polling locations around the country? 

Steff Chávez
Yes, there have been. Multiple polling stations in the swing state of Georgia had to close temporarily yesterday while police investigated bomb threats. And the FBI warned of similar threats from Russian email domains to voting sites across the US. And as you said, Washington, DC has also been on high alert. Police arrested a man at the US Capitol who they said was in possession of a torch and a flare gun. 

Sonja Hutson
And, you know, this also makes me wonder how confident people feel in this election process in general. Did you get a sense of that in talking to people in Wisconsin? 

Steff Chávez
Nobody that I talked to really voiced concerns about the safety of their own ballot. However, the concept of election integrity has definitely been a really important issue throughout the country. Randy Marquardt, who is the Republican chair of the Washington County Republicans here in Wisconsin, told me recently that he has had to spend a lot of time reassuring Republican voters in his county that the election system is safe. And also both Democrats and Republicans pushed early-vote campaigns really hard, particularly in Wisconsin. And so a lot of people from both parties voted early here. 

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Sonja Hutson
Steff Chávez is the FT’s Washington reporter. Thanks Steff. 

Steff Chávez
Thanks, Sonja. 

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Sonja Hutson
A record amount of money was spent in this year’s presidential election. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have burnt through more than $3.5bn combined in the race. That’s according to the FT’s analysis of campaign filings. So, where did all this money go? Well, almost half was spent on ads in seven swing states. The campaigns have flooded Pennsylvania the most. They put over $400mn to work there. To put that into perspective, that is more than all of the non-swing states combined. Filings also show Trump’s campaign groups spent $100mn on the former president’s recent and ongoing court cases. That’s 14 per cent of his total spending. And Harris outspent Trump on media and ad buys by roughly 25 per cent.

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in the middle of a rock and a hard place. He needs to pass a budget by next week. But an argument between his coalition partners over how to do that has threatened to bring down the entire government. My colleague, Guy Chazan, has been following all the drama and he joins me now. Hey, Guy. 

Guy Chazan
Hi. 

Sonja Hutson
All right. So tell me where the budget discussions stand at the moment and what the major sticking points are. 

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Guy Chazan
Well, the problem is that the government has submitted a draft budget to the Bundestag, to the German parliament, but there is an enormous hole in it, because what happened recently is that the government downgraded its economic forecasts for this year and also for next. And that meant that it now expects less tax revenue than it did before when it actually came up with this draft budget. So there’s a big financing gap which no one knows how to plug. Basically, we have three parties in this government — Social Democrats, Greens and liberals. All three have different remedies for how to close this gap, and they’re kind of mutually incompatible. But that’s not the only problem. 

Sonja Hutson
Yeah. Tell me a little bit more about the political landscape here. 

Guy Chazan
Well, what’s happened is that these three parties, they were always sort of uncomfortable, awkward bedfellows. And what we’ve seen in the last couple of days is the rather unedifying spectacle of all three parties presenting their own proposals for how to get Germany out of this current mess. And it’s creating a lot of chaos and a lot of angst in the German political system, but also in German business. And people are just like shaking their heads in disbelief that there can be so much disunity within this government. 

Sonja Hutson
Well, what’s at risk then, if the coalition parties can’t come together ahead of the budget deadline next week? 

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Guy Chazan
Well, I think what will happen is that the coalition will break down if there’s no breakthrough on the budget. Scholz, the chancellor, has been saying, look, we’ve all got to put our heads together and come up with a solution here. We owe it to the country. The economy minister said something very similar. He said, you know, this is really the worst possible time to break up the coalition, with all the insecurity, all the instability in the world right now. But the smaller partner in the coalition, the liberals — it’s a party called the Free Democrats, the FDP — they are really at the end of their tether. And there’s a very, very strong likelihood that the FDP could just abandon the coalition, and then that could trigger the dissolution of the Bundestag, the parliament, and new elections. 

Sonja Hutson
OK. Wow. So there’s definitely a lot of uncertainty right now in Germany, which makes me wonder, what is the wider impact of this instability on the European Union more broadly? 

Guy Chazan
Well, I mean, it has enormous impact because, you know, people have always looked to Germany for leadership in Europe. You know, it’s the biggest economy in the Eurozone. It’s the kind of industrial behemoth of Europe. And what’s happened now is that that anchor of stability has gone. Germany is just now wracked by political instability. And there’s real fear that the country that is so indispensable could be without a government within weeks. 

Sonja Hutson
Guy Chazan is the FT’s Berlin bureau chief. Thanks, Guy. 

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Guy Chazan
Thank you. 

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Sonja Hutson
You can read more on all these stories for free when you click the links in our show notes. This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Check back tomorrow for the latest business news. 

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The swing to Trump in maps and charts

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Former president Donald Trump has claimed the battleground states of North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania and increased his vote share across the nation.

Trump picked up more votes than in 2020 in every state apart from Utah and Washington. He was particularly strong in areas he had won in the last election, turning red states redder, in particular Florida and Texas. It has put Trump on track to win a majority of the national popular vote for the first time.

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Trump also gained ground in traditional Democratic strongholds, closing the gap on Harris by 12 points in New York, 11 in Connecticut and 11 in New Jersey.

In Florida’s Latino-majority counties, Trump increased his vote share by almost eight points compared with four years earlier. He flipped Miami-Dade, the state’s most populous county, clinching more than 55 per cent of votes. In 2020, Joe Biden won the county with 53.4 per cent.

Pennsylvania, which awards 19 electoral votes and was paramount for Harris to win after her losses in Georgia and North Carolina, has been called for Trump, who leads with 51 per cent compared with 48 per cent for Harris. Some remaining swing states — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin — are still in the balance but Trump has declared victory.

Across the US, the data shows urban voters did not come through strongly enough for Harris, while people in rural areas turned out for Trump.

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The Republican candidate gained support among huge swaths of the electorate compared with 2020, according to exit poll data. Asian, Black, Hispanic and white voters all moved towards Trump. Harris only increased her vote share among the over-65s and with white college-educated women.

Long-shot goals for Harris went far by the wayside. A poll last weekend by “gold standard” pollster J Ann Selzer showed Harris leading by an unexpected three points in staunchly conservative Iowa, buoying Democratic hopes. With nearly all votes counted, Trump is 14 points ahead in the state.

In North Carolina, a state Republicans have won in every election since 2012 but with increasingly narrow margins, the former president increased his vote share. He also managed to flip three counties — Nash, Pasquotank and Anson — from the Democrats.

Georgia, another state where the Harris campaign poured in resources, has been flipped by Trump. He leads with 50.7 per cent of the vote compared with Harris’s 48.5 per cent.

In the “blue wall” swing states that remain in the balance, the current vote count largely favours a Trump victory.

In Wisconsin, Dane County is a reliably Democratic jurisdiction that has seen increasing vote share for Democratic candidates in every presidential election since 1992 — except this year.

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Integrating Diagrams in Business Financial Planning – Finance Monthly

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Financial planning is of utmost importance in the constantly evolving business landscape. Some innovative companies are engaging diagrams and other visual tools to connect complicated financial data with clear, actionable insights.

Effective utilization of diagrams allows these businesses to spot trends, optimize budgeting allocations, and forecast more accurately.

This article will elaborate on how companies can use diagrams to ensure financial success.

Visualizing Data Trends

Data trends hold lots of insight into the company’s growth trajectory, market performance, and emerging risks or opportunities. While traditional tables and spreadsheets inform, spotting trends instantly takes time.

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Diagrams such as line charts, heat maps, and waterfall charts turn such numbers into easily interpretable visuals, making it easier for businesses to identify patterns and plan their strategy.

Line charts convey trends in revenue or costs over various points in time. You can choose heat maps on Miro’s diagram templates to visualize a set of performance measures over any management aspect, helping your organization put together a rough analysis of which set of departments and product lines require attention and which are thriving.

Waterfall charts are becoming increasingly popular among financial analysts to show incremental effects contributing to profit and those drawing resources from profit.

Waterfall charts let one label income and expense categories as they contribute or detract to profitability step by step. This helps set more targeted budgets and operational shifts.

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Enhancing Budget Allocation

Diagrams provide a more visual way of dispersing resources based on need, performance, or return on investment (ROI).

Pie charts, tree maps, and bar graphs are examples of diagrams that make it easier for organizations to see where budget money is allocated to analyze whether it is being appropriately distributed among various projects or departments.

  • Pie Chart and TreeMap Displays of Departmental Budgets: Some organizations use pie charts to allocate and overview department budgets and clearly show which departments incur the highest costs or investments.

Then, there are tree maps that visualize the nested subcategories inside significant categories so that companies can track spending from both macro and micro perspectives.

  • Comparative Bar Graphs for Tracking ROI: Comparative bar graphs for ROI analysis across departments or campaigns allow finance teams to see which investments quickly deliver the most significant returns.

This attachment of value is handy for companies with multiple product lines or initiatives because such products allow for prioritizing high-ROI projects to minimize expenditure on something that does not return value.

Creating Financial Projections and Scenarios

Forecasting diagrams, like predictive graphs and sensitivity analysis charts, enable businesses to visualize different possible futures. Such visualization allows companies to make moves beforehand to remediate variances of expected value.

Sensitivity analysis diagrams allow businesses to adjust the variables and visualize the underlying financial template.

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For example, through changes in sales growth rates or interest, finance teams can prepare for best-case, worst-case, and moderate cases to support an adaptive approach to budgeting.

In predicting revenue growth and cost changes over time, tech-based companies increasingly use predictive modelling and multi-line graphs based on historical data. Using such tools helps with a more precise revenue forecast, which allows for appropriate scaling of content investments or subscriber acquisition costs.

Advanced Reporting and Real-Time Dashboards

Companies increasingly turn to interactive dashboards and real-time reporting to make rapid decisions. Interactive charts allow users to easily interact with the data, making it exceedingly easy to focus on specific areas. Live and dynamic reporting helps the financial roles recognize and act upon issues as they arise, maintaining flexibility in financial planning.

Real-time dashboards allow companies to track KPIs, for example, cash flows, revenues, and expenses, with the help of dynamic bar graphs, pie charts, and gauges. Companies can update operational budgets and marketing spending in real time because the information is continuously updated based on live data.

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The Role of AI in Automated Diagram Creation for Financial Planning.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is bringing a sophisticated new dimension to financial planning by providing functions for automatic diagram creation from live data feeds. An AI algorithm can identify patterns in the data, automatically generate predictive models, and recommend the most appropriate visualizations.

AI-powered financial planning tools can analyze historical data to build automated forecasting diagrams so that businesses visualize future revenue, costs, and cash flow. For instance, AI-anchored facilitates real-time forecasting updates, furthering financial planning accuracy and freeing the finance team from other resource-consuming manual functions.

Some machine learning algorithms can spot variations from a given pattern in financial information and present this using colour-coded visuals and alerts. Companies such as Walmart employ these kinds of tools, indicating specific trends in sales data that allow finance teams to make prompt corrective changes.

Endnote

Innovative companies can leverage diagrams to turn complex financial data into easy-to-understand visuals that enhance data comprehension, budgeting accuracy, and strategic planning.

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From predicting the future to tracking KPIs in real-time, these visual tools bring the financial health of organizations into clear view and permit well-informed and timely decision-making.

Introducing AI and real-time dashboards into financial planning allows for an even more sophisticated and dynamic application of diagrams, giving businesses the insight needed to thrive in a highly competitive market.

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China woes weigh on profits at Toyota, Honda and BMW

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Slowing demand in China led to steep falls in quarterly profit for Toyota, Honda and BMW, dragging even the strongest carmakers into a broader downturn hitting the sector.

Until now, Japan’s Toyota and Honda had outperformed their European and US rivals due to strong hybrid and petrol sales in North America.

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But for the latest quarter, both groups suffered a sales decline in China due to increased competition with local brands, while Toyota and BMW were also hit by recalls.

China, the world’s largest market for cars, has become fiercely competitive as homegrown electric-focused brands such as BYD rapidly gain market share and consumer demand cools following the country’s property crisis.

Operating profit at Toyota dropped for the first time in two years, slipping 20 per cent to ¥1.16tn ($7.5bn) in the three months to the end of September after the world’s largest carmaker by sales was hit by a quality-testing scandal and suspended production of two models in the US.

The group also lowered its annual vehicle sales target to 10.8mn units from 10.9mn, even as it maintained full-year profit guidance. For the quarter, sales in China for Toyota and its luxury Lexus vehicles dropped 9.7 per cent to 456,000 cars.

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At a news conference in Tokyo, Yoichi Miyazaki, Toyota’s executive vice-president, warned that there could be “more intensified” price competition in China to come but said Toyota’s profit levels in the country were at a similar level as Chinese rivals.

The company was seeking to move beyond simply “enduring” the price competition, he said, to creating cars better suited for Chinese consumers, who spend a significant amount of time relaxing in their cars without driving them.

Profits in North America plunged 83 per cent during the quarter due to recalls and production suspensions for the Camry sedan and Lexus models due to testing data falsification. Toyota truck and bus subsidiary Hino also recalled vehicles as part of the sprawling data scandal.

Still, Toyota executives said there was no slowdown in hybrid demand in the North American market, which is the key profit engine for the Japanese group.

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Hybrid vehicle sales — which are more profitable for Toyota than regular vehicles — continued to power ahead, totalling a record 524,790 units in North America, with low inventory levels holding back sales numbers.

“We have not noticed in a straightforward manner any change in economic activities,” Miyazaki said. “Our hybrid cars are extremely popular.”

Honda cut its net profit outlook by 14 per cent to ¥950bn, due also to flagging Chinese demand.

Shares in Honda fell 6 per cent following the profit downgrade on Wednesday, while Toyota’s stock price was up 1.7 per cent as the company maintained its profit guidance.

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On Wednesday, BMW said earnings before interest and taxes slid 61 per cent year on year to €1.69bn, which the company blamed on “extraordinary challenges”. Vehicle sales in China dropped 30 per cent.

In September, the Munich-based company cut its full-year profit forecast and warned that 1.5mn cars sold in the past two years could have faulty brake systems, adding that sales in China were also sliding.

The company’s comments on its woes in China came after German carmakers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, which are also heavily dependent on China for sales, had similarly warned of big slumps in demand.

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VW last week announced a 64 per cent plunge in quarterly net profits, following slow Chinese sales.

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Novo Nordisk maintains booming sales of obesity and diabetes drugs

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Novo Nordisk maintained its sales growth momentum on booming sales of its weight loss and diabetes drugs, as it reported revenue and operating profit broadly in line with analysts’ expectations.

The maker of the blockbuster Ozempic and Wegovy drugs has benefited in recent years from huge demand for its products. It reported sales of DKr71.3bn ($10.2bn) in the third quarter, up 21 per cent from the same period in 2023 but slightly lower than analysts’ projections. Operating profit of DKr33.8bn was in line with expectations.

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The company now expects sales to increase by 23-27 per cent on a constant exchange rate basis compared with previous estimates of 22-28 per cent. 

The results come as competition between Novo Nordisk and its main rival in the weight-loss category Eli Lilly continues at pace.

Eli Lilly shares tumbled by as much as 12 per cent last week after it lowered its revenue guidance because of high manufacturing costs and fluctuating inventory levels.  

Novo Nordisk’s revenue growth was driven by sales of its weight-loss drug Wegovy, which accounted for DKr17.3bn of sales, above analyst estimates of DKr15.8bn.

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“The sales growth is driven by increasing demand for our GLP-1-based diabetes and obesity treatments, and we are serving more patients than ever before,” said chief executive Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen.

The Danish company’s share price rise of 7 per cent this year lags far behind its rival Eli Lilly’s 36 per cent, as the US company has gradually increased its share of the obesity and diabetes market and Novo Nordisk has faced lower prescriptions of Wegovy than expected.

Novo Nordisk is developing new drugs that could provide improved weight-loss results for patients, with investors waiting for late-stage results before the end of the year from CagriSema, a new treatment that could eventually replace Wegovy and Ozempic.

Both companies expect to see more competition in the years ahead, although the clinical development of drugs from rivals Roche and AstraZeneca are far behind those of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. AstraZeneca this week reported early data for a weight-loss oral pill that it said was safe and competitive with other drugs in the field.

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UniCredit raises guidance as profits slip at Commerzbank

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UniCredit raises guidance as profits slip at Commerzbank

Earnings diverge for lenders at centre of Europe’s biggest potential tie-up since financial crisis

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One Four Nine kickstarts next phase of growth with 10th acquisition

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Loyal North completes double acquisition

Financial advice and investment management firm One Four Nine Group has acquired Nottingham-based Castlegate Capital, marking a “crucial step” in its growth journey.

The deal is the 10th acquisition for One Four Nine Group and the first of 2024 following a significant period of focus to integrate all firms into the business fully.

The launch in late 2023 of One Four Nine Wealth was an important moment for the evolution of the business.

It provided a “robust platform” to begin uniting all regional locations under one brand identity and to ensure the delivery a consistent client service proposition across the UK.

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One Four Nine Wealth is the financial planning arm of the business, operating alongside One Four Nine Portfolio Management.

Castlegate is an independent chartered financial planning business established in 2016 catering to private and corporate clients across the UK.

It will rebrand to One Four Nine Wealth upon completion of the transaction taking the group’s client assets to over £1.6bn with over 30 financial planners and around 5,000 clients.

One Four Nine Group, chief executive Gabrielle Beaumont said: “This is an exciting time of growth for One Four Nine Group.

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“Investing heavily in the last 12 months in people, integration and client proposition across our regional locations has put us in a strong position to continue to attract some of the best firms in the market as part of our continued acquisition strategy.”

She said the Castlegate team was a “natural fit” for One Four Nine Group and shares its vision of building an “energetic, forward-thinking” financial planning business with a “clear focus on delivering excellent lifetime financial planning to clients”.

One Four Nine Group corporate development director Sanjay Lukka added: “The acquisition of Castlegate Capital is an important milestone for One Four Nine Group.

“Having joined the Group in August, I’m delighted that my first acquisition marks such a crucial step in our growth journey.

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“This acquisition reinforces our commitment to expanding One Four Nine Group’s footprint in the Midlands and beyond.

“Castlegate Capital’s expertise and strong client focus aligns fully with our own, and I look forward to working alongside their talented team to continue to deliver more value to our clients.”

One Four Nine launched in October 2021 with the acquisition of two advisory firms – Charter Financial Planning and Rice Whatmough Crozier.

The group primarily targets accountancy firms and other professional services firms which own or have a joint venture with financial advice firms.

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It also considers standalone advisory firms which reflect its “collaborative, innovative and professional values”.

This includes advice firms either already or wanting to become experienced in recommending tax efficient alternative investments.

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