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Hurricane Milton makes landfall in Florida

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Today’s agenda: HSBC’s cost-cutting plans; OpenAI’s restructuring; Russia’s “shadow” oil fleet; and Israel’s growing Lebanon offensive


Good morning. Hurricane Milton has made landfall on Florida’s highly populated western coast, bringing life-threatening flooding and extreme winds to the state for the second time in two weeks. More than 2mn homes and businesses were left without power. Here’s what we know so far.

What is the storm’s scale? The hurricane made landfall as a category three storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with winds of 120mph, the US National Hurricane Center said, warning of “life-threatening” gusts, tornadoes and storm surges of up to 13ft. The head of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency has described the hurricane as “deadly and catastrophic”.

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What’s at stake: The NHC has warned that Milton could be one of the area’s most destructive hurricanes on record. Analysts estimate Milton could trigger insurance losses of up to $60bn, with losses over the hurricane season likely to “dent” the sector’s profitability. One insurer said potential damage in the area, where many houses are not built to withstand major storm events, could be severe.

The hurricane could also disrupt oil prices. Chevron said it had shut down production at the Blind Faith platform in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the hurricane and removed its staff from the site. Apart from oil production, analysts have also said the hurricane could hurt demand for petrol.

Milton is forecast to remain at hurricane strength while it moves across central Florida today. We’ll bring you more updates as the situation develops.

And here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:

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  • Economic data: The US has September inflation figures, while the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors publishes its latest UK residential market survey.

  • Tesla: Elon Musk’s group is set to unveil its first self-driving “robotaxis”, after the electric vehicle maker recently missed market expectations for vehicle deliveries.

  • Nobel Prize: The award for literature is announced in Sweden. War in the Middle East has cast a shadow over tomorrow’s peace prize, with the UN agency for Palestinian refugees among the nominees.

Five more top stories

1. Exclusive: HSBC’s new chief executive plans to target the lender’s expensive layer of senior bankers in a cost-cutting move aimed at saving as much as $300mn. Georges Elhedery is drawing up plans to merge HSBC’s commercial banking unit with its global banking and markets unit. Read the full story.

2. Exclusive: Steel magnate Sanjeev Gupta is being prosecuted over his alleged failure to file accounts in the UK. The charges relate to 76 companies including his trading firm Liberty Commodities and a number of businesses comprising his Liberty Steel group of metals plants, according to court documents seen by the Financial Times.

3. Exclusive: OpenAI is planning to restructure as a public benefit corporation to defend itself from hostile takeovers and protect chief executive Sam Altman from outsider interference. While largely untested, this rare type of company model has also been adopted by rivals such as Anthropic and Elon Musk’s xAI. Here’s how the PBC structure works.

4. Donald Trump has said he would end “double taxation” for millions of Americans living overseas if he wins the US presidential election next month. There are up to 9mn Americans living or serving overseas, but this does not exempt them from filing US tax returns. Here’s why their votes matter in the White House race.

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  • Democratic infighting: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has warned of an “out and out brawl” if Kamala Harris removes Lina Khan, the antitrust progressive who chairs the Federal Trade Commission.

5. The UK chancellor has been warned not to sharply increase government borrowing in a push for more public investment in her October 30 Budget. An Institute for Fiscal Studies analysis shows Rachel Reeves could create space to raise investment spending by more than £50bn if the government targets a broader measure of the public finances, but the think-tank said she would need to be “very cautious”.

FT investigation

Montage showing the bow of a large ship named ‘Dynamik Trader’, and a map of Europe and Africa in the background
© FT montage/Getty Images/Yoruk Isik

Russia has created a “shadow fleet” of more than 400 vessels moving about 4mn barrels of oil a day, circumventing western sanctions to create billions of dollars a year in additional revenue for its war in Ukraine. The FT’s latest investigation shows how complex arrangements involving a British accountant, a London-listed broker and Dubai-based companies helped one of Russia’s biggest oil producers buy ships while hiding its involvement.

We’re also reading . . . 

  • DoJ vs Google: The tech giant is seeking to delay and deflect a historic break-up threat by accusing prosecutors of regulatory “over-reach”.

  • Ratan Tata: The Indian industrialist who led his family group on an ambitious overseas expansion that included Jaguar Land Rover and UK steel plants has died aged 86.

  • Portugal: The country’s novel plan to stop its brain drain would cut the income tax burden on young workers for a decade, including a tax-free first year.

  • 80-hour weeks: Wall Street’s moves to cap weekly hours for entry-level bankers are butting against the reality of a competitive industry.

Graphic of the day

When Israel launched its first invasion of Lebanon for nearly two decades, it characterised the operation as “limited, localised and targeted”. But over the past week, the scale of the Israeli ground assault against Hizbollah has quickly grown, fuelling fears the offensive will not be ending any time soon.

Satellite images from September 29 and October 5 showing tanks appear in Lebanon 250m from the Israeli border. Source: Planet Labs

Take a break from the news

As employers increasingly make concessions for their workers’ personal lives, a hotel in the Philippines last year unveiled an unusual new staff policy: five paid days of heartbreak leave. Could this work benefit improve productivity elsewhere?

Montage of two hands, one above and one below, and a breaking heart with tears falling from it
© FT montage/Dreamstime

Additional contributions from Gordon Smith and Benjamin Wilhelm

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I won £25million lottery jackpot but only took home a fraction because of promise I made years ago

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I won £25million lottery jackpot but only took home a fraction because of promise I made years ago

A HOSPITAL COOK won £25 million in the lottery, but only took home a fraction of the winnings due to a promise she’d made years previously.

Julie Amphlett was working at Nealth Port Talbot Hospital, Wales when she heard the news of her giant EuroMillions win in 2017.

The Catering Girls, pictured at Hensol Castle in south Wales, won the lottery as part of a syndicate in 2017

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The Catering Girls, pictured at Hensol Castle in south Wales, won the lottery as part of a syndicate in 2017Credit: Athena Picture Agency
This week, syndicate members Sian Thomas (left) and Julie Amphlett (right) reunited to cook a special lunch

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This week, syndicate members Sian Thomas (left) and Julie Amphlett (right) reunited to cook a special lunchCredit: PA
They were joined by other lottery winners to prepare the meal at Cegin Hedyn community kitchen

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They were joined by other lottery winners to prepare the meal at Cegin Hedyn community kitchenCredit: PA

However, she had previously agreed to divide any winnings with five other people – meaning she only came away with just over £4.2 million.

The six women were part of a work syndicate called The Catering Girls – all colleagues at the hospital.

They had been playing the Euromillions for six years before their win.

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Despite losing out on a large proportion of the jackpot, syndicate leader Julie was delighted with the result, as the six colleagues all quit their jobs and jetted off on a luxury holiday to Las Vegas.

Julie and fellow syndicate members Louise Ward and Sian Thomas reunited this week to celebrate 30 years of the National Lottery.

Along with other lottery winners, the women prepared a special lunch for guests at the Cegin Hedyn community café.

Julie said: “It’s great to be back in the kitchen with the girls, it takes us right back to those years we spent in the hospital kitchen before our incredible win.

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“And it’s nice to be using our skills for such a deserving project.

“The idea that everyone, from all walks of life, can come together and share a meal is so important within the local community.”

The women prepared food and mocktails, and presented a gift and thank you note to those involved in the success of the café.

Heartbroken Postcode Lottery winner plans new life in Spain with share of £2million after family hit by double tragedy

Since opening, Cegin Hedyn has served over 10,000 meals to the local community.

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Dave and Sarah Williams, Wales’ most recent National Lottery millionaires, also joined The Catering Girls in the kitchen.

Dave said: “Since that incredible moment when our numbers came up I’ve pinched myself quite a bit, and today is no different.

“Firstly, it’s amazing to meet all these other lucky winners – I didn’t realise there were so many in Wales! – and it’s also been great to see where the Good Cause funding goes to, this project is doing some truly amazing things for the community in Carmarthen.

“Our lives have changed so much for the better since our winning moment.

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“We moved into a new home where Trevor, our very boisterous dog, can finally wear himself out with his zoomies, and Sarah and I are taking things easy for a bit before we plan our next adventures, and if I know Sarah, that might well be deciding what pet will be joining our family next.”

The news comes as another lottery syndicate in Australia descended into a bitter feud.

Alan Way sought legal action against Mark Peter Bowling, 76, and Moya Posa, 89, over claims he was cut out of the syndicate’s massive £3 million winnings.

What is a lottery syndicate

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A lottery syndicate is a group of lottery players who pool their resources to buy multiple tickets, increasing their chances of winning. The costs and winnings are shared among all members. Syndicates can be formed online or with friends, family, or colleagues.

Setting up a syndicate

  • Set up a syndicate agreement to avoid disputes and tax issues. This will outline the structure and management of the syndicate.
  • Appoint a syndicate manager

What are the syndicate manager’s responsibilities?

  • Maintain the syndicate agreement
  • Ensure each player has paid for their tickets
  • Purchase tickets and check for prizes
  • Collect and distribute winnings among members

How many members can you have and how many tickets can you buy?

  • There’s no limit to the number of members or tickets
  • More tickets increase winning chances, but also make management harder and winnings smaller per member

Prize distribution

  • Winnings are paid to the syndicate manager, who then distributes them
  • Online syndicates automate this process

Legality

  • Lottery syndicates are legal and a fun way to enhance your chances of winning
  • Ensure a syndicate agreement is in place for offline groups, or join an online group for secure and automated management of tickets and winnings

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China stimulus unleashes ETF buying spree in US and Europe

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Latest news on ETFs

Visit our ETF Hub to find out more and to explore our in-depth data and comparison tools

A scramble for Chinese equities united the global investment industry last month, just as attitudes towards European and Japanese stock markets became heavily bifurcated along geographical lines.

Despite strong domestic enthusiasm, foreign exchange traded fund investors turned their backs on European and Japanese stock markets in September.

Yet global investors were unified in their enthusiasm for Chinese stocks after the People’s Bank of China unveiled a series of stimulus measures that included monetary easing, steps to support the country’s crisis-hit property market and a Rmb800bn fund to boost the stock market, by lending to asset managers, insurers and brokers to buy equities and to listed companies to buy back their stock.

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The war chest expanded on the activities of China’s “national team” of sovereign wealth funds, most prominently Central Huijin Investment, which have ploughed billions of renminbi into domestic equity ETFs over the past 12 months in a bid to boost the onshore A-share market and rekindle investor confidence.

China’s blue-chip CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed companies responded by jumping 32 per cent in the space of two weeks, before slipping back 7 per cent on Wednesday. Despite the rally, the blue-chip index still remains 32 per cent below its February 2021 peak.

Overseas ETF investors played their part, launching a buying spree that represented a dramatic volte-face.

In the final four trading days of September, investors pumped $1.6bn into US-listed exchange traded funds focused on China while similar funds listed in Europe pulled in $753mn, according to data from TrackInsight.

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This was a sharp contrast to the pattern seen so far this year: in the near-nine months to September 24, US investors withdrew a net $5.1bn from China-focused ETFs while their European counterparts cut their exposure by $331mn.

The newfound inflows, however, remain dwarfed by domestic flows. Asia-Pacific listed China equity ETFs have vacuumed up a net $127bn so far this year, according to data from BlackRock. The vast majority of this is likely to have stemmed from ETFs listed in China itself, in part due to the machinations of the national team.

Despite the U-turn in ETF flows, enthusiasm in some quarters towards Chinese equities remains tempered.

The BlackRock Investment Institute moved from a neutral position to a “modestly overweight” view on China in the wake of the stimulus announcement, magnified by the onshore A-shares market’s lower valuation than developed market equities.  

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However, it said it remained “cautious long term given China’s structural challenges” and was “ready to pivot” to a gloomier view if deemed necessary.

Rony Abboud of TrackInsight cautioned that regulatory risks from both US regulators — in respect of security and audit concerns — and their Chinese counterparts — given their past crackdowns on big tech — “are still major factors” in many investors thinking.

Moreover, “there’s scepticism about the long-term impact of the recent stimulus. While it may ease short-term pressures, it’s not seen as enough for a strong recovery without further fiscal support,” Abboud added.

“Time will tell if the bounce was a short squeeze or a sustainable rally,” said Matthew Bartolini, head of Americas ETF research at State Street Global Advisors, given that short interest in China-focused single-country ETFs “had been elevated” beforehand and trailing three-month inflows “the worst they had ever been entering September”.

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Any semblance of global consensus was conspicuous by its absence elsewhere, however.

European investors remain upbeat about their own equity markets, pumping $6.6bn into ETFs focused on the region in the past three months, according to the BlackRock data. In contrast, US investors are unconvinced, with further selling in September taking three-month outflows from European equity ETFs to $2.7bn.

A similar picture has emerged in Japan, where Asia-Pacific investors have ploughed $9.3bn into Tokyo-focused ETFs in the past two months, even as US and European investors have withdrawn $4.6bn.

Line chart of Cumulative net flows into equity ETFs ($bn), by domestic and international investors showing Domestic bliss

“Japan and Europe have a very strong home bias. International investment in both these markets has dropped off,” said Karim Chedid, head of investment strategy for BlackRock’s iShares arm in the Emea region.

In Japan’s case, Chedid said this was because “the domestic investor is still early in the journey of buying their own market. They have been sitting in cash: when Japan was in deflation they did not need to buy equities,” a development he saw as structural.

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In contrast, some foreign investors saw “more headwinds coming from the Bank of Japan [being] expected to continue normalising its policy,” by nudging its still ultra-low policy rate a little higher.

As for Europe, Chedid said “if you look at the macro[economic] picture we have seen in the last month, Europe macro start to disappoint and US macro start to surprise on the upside.

“I think that has driven a bit of a wedge towards investors’ sentiment towards Europe in the last month, but the European investor is still buying lots of European equities, particularly taking the view that the European Central Bank is going to accelerate its rate cuts”, something that would be “a tailwind for the European equity market”.

Overall monthly inflows into the global ETF industry hit $141bn in September, according to BlackRock, up from $129bn in August, keeping it on course to smash all records this year.

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Equity ETFs accounted for $102bn of these inflows led, as ever, by US-focused funds, which took in $57bn.

Fixed income flows slowed to $34.6bn while commodity ETFs attracted $1.7bn, led by gold funds which have now seen inflows for five straight months — although they still remain in net outflow territory for the year.

Chedid attributed the revival of interest in gold among ETF investors to rising geopolitical volatility alongside a backdrop of falling global interest rates — traditionally helpful to a non-yielding asset.

  

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Small UK airport scraps two of its strictest hand luggage rules

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Bournemouth Airport has ditched some strict security rules

A UK airport has ditched some of its much-hated security rules.

Bournemouth Airport passengers will be able to keep more of their items in their luggage when travelling through.

Bournemouth Airport has ditched some strict security rules

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Bournemouth Airport has ditched some strict security rulesCredit: Getty

Most airports still require travellers to take both laptops and liquids out of their bags when going through security. 

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This can result in much longer queues especially at peak times.

However, the small UK airport has said that this is no longer the case.

Instead, they can both remain in any luggage going through the scanners.

An statement released by the airport reads: “Bournemouth Airport has completed the process of installing and testing new security screening equipment to improve passenger security.

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“For hand luggage this means that with immediate effect, passengers flying from Bournemouth Airport can now leave Liquids and large electrical items such as laptops in their cabin baggage.

“Passengers flying from Bournemouth Airport will no longer need to present liquids separately in a clear plastic bag however, liquids are still restricted to containers of up to 100ml.”

Sun Travel has contacted Bournemouth Airport for comment.

The current liquid rules remain in place across the UK which is that all liquids must be under 100ml, and all fit into a small plastic bag.

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This had hoped to be scrapped earlier this year across the UK.

What you need to know about the new airport 100ml liquid rule

Despite a number of UK airports scrapping the rules, the government u-turned just days later.

There is no confirmed date when this will be lifted again.

When it is, Brits will be able to take as much as 2l of liquids in their hand luggage without restriction.

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And holidaymakers will still have to check the rules when going abroad.

Other airports who don’t follow the rules will require tourists to still carry liquids under 100ml.

But there is even better news for Bournemouth Airport, with Jet2 launching 16 new routes from the airport next year.

Spanish destinations will include the Alicante, Ibiza, Menorca, Majorca, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, Lanzarote and Tenerife.

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Corfu, Heraklion, Rhodes and Zante in Greece will also be added, as well as Turkey‘s Antalya and Dalaman, along with Faro and Funchal in Portugal.

And the airport has revealed plans for a £5million expansion, with predictions to welcome a record one million passengers.

Hand luggage rules for UK airlines

We’ve rounded up how much hand luggage you can take on UK airlines when booking their most basic fare.

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Ryanair

One personal bag measuring no more than 40cm x 20cm x 25cm

EasyJet

One personal bag measuring no larger than 45cm x 36cm x 20cm

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Jet2

One personal item that fits underneath the seat in front and one cabin bag no larger than 56cm x 45cm x 25cm weighing up to 10kg

TUI

One personal item that its underneath the seat in front and one cabin bag no larger than 55cm x 40cm x 20cm weighing up to 10kg

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British Airways

One personal bag no larger than 40cm x 30cm x 15cm and one cabin bag no larger than 56cm x 45cm 25cm weighing up to 23kg

Virgin Atlantic

One personal item that fits underneath the seat in front and one cabin bag no larger than 56cm x 36cm x 23cm weighing up to 10kg

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Here is a clever way to swerve the liquids restrictions.

And we’ve reviewed the best hand luggage bags that people rave about for avoiding baggage fees.

The airport has revealed plans for a £5million renovation ahead of record passenger numbers

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The airport has revealed plans for a £5million renovation ahead of record passenger numbersCredit: Alamy

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BareRock launches counselling and wellbeing programme for members

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PDG launches income protection claims guide for mental health

Professional Indemnity Insurance (PII) provider BareRock has launched a counselling and wellbeing support programme for its advice firm policyholders.

The programme aims to support the mental health and wellbeing of individuals within BareRock’s club member firms who are dealing with the strain of high-stress complaint situations, by covering the costs of professional counselling.

Under the new initiative, BareRock will fund up to 10 one-hour counselling sessions per claim, subject to a £2,000 cap, with no policy excess payable by the club member firm.

This is designed to help business owners, senior leaders and employees who often find themselves directly involved in managing complex and pressure-filled complaints while juggling multiple responsibilities in highly regulated businesses.

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The initiative will be incorporated into BareRock’s offering at no extra cost during the last quarter of 2024.

It will be available to existing and new policyholders.

The news was announced on World Mental Health Day today (10 October).

BareRock CEO and founder Jonathan Newell said: “We are constantly seeking ways to enhance our offering and provide meaningful value to our club members where it’s needed most.

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“By offering compassionate support on a human level, alongside technical and strategic assistance during complaint situations, we can help our club members better manage the emotional and mental toll of dealing with stressful complaint situations.

“This mental health and wellbeing support is a great demonstration of our commitment to our customers and to the FCA’s vulnerable customers guidance.”

BareRock’s counselling services aim to support individuals as they navigate the challenges of their roles.

The programme helps develop strategies for better stress management, work-life balance and mental-health prioritisation.

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Corporate Personal Wellbeing (CPW) is BareRock’s preferred partner in delivering these professional counselling sessions.

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Argentina overtakes Brazil in crypto inflows — Chainalysis

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Argentina overtakes Brazil in crypto inflows — Chainalysis


Argentina’s stablecoin market is one of the largest in the world in terms of share of stablecoin transactions, beating the global average by 17%.



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This Tory leadership ballot suits nobody, only perhaps Keir Starmer

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This article is an on-site version of our Inside Politics newsletter. Subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every weekday. If you’re not a subscriber, you can still receive the newsletter free for 30 days

Good morning. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. In the first round of the Conservative leadership election, moderate candidates between them got the votes of 65 MPs — more than enough to guarantee passage to the final round.

Now, in a shock result, Conservative members will choose from two candidates drawn from the right of the party, after James Cleverly went out in the fourth ballot (37 votes, down two from the previous round), meaning that Kemi Badenoch (42 votes, up 12) will face Robert Jenrick (41 votes, up 10).

Alan Watkins, my most illustrious predecessor as political editor at the New Statesman, gifted the political world a number of phrases. “The chattering classes”, “the men in grey suits”, that sort of thing.

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It was he who coined the phrase “the most sophisticated electorate in the world” to describe the parliamentary Labour party, and not, as it is often misattributed to, the parliamentary Conservative party. He gave the group the title because Labour MPs — between electing their leader, the shadow cabinet, their various standing committees and whatnot — were then voting all the time. He was not thinking of the Conservative party, which at the time he coined it had voted in just one leadership election: the 1965 one in which they chose Ted Heath over Reggie Maudling.

If one mark of “sophistication” is how often your MPs have to vote, one thing we can say is that it seems likely that Tory MPs will become more and more sophisticated over the next few years.

Some thoughts on how it happened below.

Inside Politics is edited by Georgina Quach. Read the previous edition of the newsletter here. Please send gossip, thoughts and feedback to insidepolitics@ft.com

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Blue in the face

How did James Cleverly go from leading the third ballot to finishing third place in the fourth?

Some Tory MPs, thinking that Cleverly was a lock for the final round, voted tactically, either for their preferred second option to create a “win-win” final ballot or for the one they judged weaker in order to ease their man’s path to the leadership. Cleverly’s campaign are denying that they were involved in any “official” attempt to shape the ballot, while others are suggesting that supporters of Badenoch or Jenrick might have been moving their vote around.

Silly games from the Badenoch campaign seem unlikely in the extreme to me, given we have good reason to believe she will win regardless and her biggest problem has always been demonstrating that she has a base within the parliamentary party. Silly games from the Jenrick campaign are a touch more likely, but very high risk and this isn’t the contest they would want.

Essentially it means that we have a ballot that suits nobody, other than perhaps Keir Starmer. Jenrick faces a candidate whom every poll and scrap of data indicates he will be heavily defeated by. Cleverly is out of the contest in humiliating circumstances. And Badenoch, who should once again be seen as the frontrunner, will probably become leader with the support of just 42 MPs and even that lowly number will come with an unhelpful asterisk by it.

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So why do I say “perhaps Keir Starmer”? Yes, it is superficially great news for the Labour party that the largest opposition party’s MPs have sat down, had a big think, and ended up eliminating the candidates whose public favourability didn’t get downgraded after the Conservative party conference.

Conservative members will now have a choice between two flavours of “we lost because we weren’t rightwing enough”, usually something an opposition party tells itself right before it loses another election.

But the reason why I don’t think it is good news for Starmer is I think governments themselves are poorly served when the opposition goes off on its own strange journey, and there is no guarantee that a crisis, whether externally or of Labour’s making, might not hand power to its opponents anyway.

A date for your diaries: On the Friday after Labour’s Budget, my colleagues Lucy Fisher, Sam Fleming, Soumaya Keynes and Robert Shrimsley will debate what it means for the UK’s economic prospects in a lunchtime webinar. Free for subscribers to join here.

Now try this

I saw Caroline Shaw and the Kamus String Quartet at Wigmore Hall last night. They were really very brilliant, largely playing pieces from her record Evergreen, which you can listen to on Spotify here and Apple Music here. She’s the standout American classical composer of her generation, I think. Every piece of music we’ve recommended in all its, uh, eclectic glory is here and I promise I will get my act together and create an Apple Music one soon.

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Top stories today

  • Ducking questions | Keir Starmer has opened the door to a multibillion-pound increase in employer national insurance contributions in this month’s Budget. Labour’s manifesto appeared to rule out an increase in national insurance, but yesterday the prime minister refused to exclude increasing the rate paid by employers, as opposed to employees.

  • Sickness drives rise in ‘inactive’ young Britons | The UK is grappling with a concerning rise in youth inactivity, with the number of people aged 16 to 24 not in education, employment or training rising almost a quarter since 2022 to more than 870,000.

  • Free to go | Rachel Reeves has ruled out imposing an exit tax on wealthy people leaving the UK to dodge higher taxes in this month’s Budget, as business braces itself for a rise in the levy on capital gains.

  • Fire away | UK bosses will be able to fire new recruits after a warning of poor performance during a nine-month probation period, in a last-minute concession to business that will soften the impact of Labour’s flagship reforms to workers’ rights. 

  • ‘The mayors hate it’ | Labour mayors are heading for a clash with the Treasury on housing, jobs and transport, reports the i’s Kitty Donaldson. Some mayors say the Treasury is hoarding power by putting national priorities for growth and jobs creation ahead of giving local leaders control.

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