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IMF deputy head warns world to avoid global trade war

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IMF deputy head warns world to avoid global trade war

The world economy could contract by the size of the combined French and German economies, if there is a broad-based trade war between the world’s major economies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has told the BBC.

It comes as concerns are heightened ahead of the possible re-election of Donald Trump.

Trump says he plans to introduce a universal tax or tariff of up to 20% on all imports into the US, while the European Union is already planning retaliation if Washington goes ahead with the new levy.

Last week, Trump said “tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary”, and global markets and finance ministers are now beginning to take seriously the prospect of him enacting the ideas.

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IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the Fund could not yet assess the specifics of Trump’s trade plans, but thinks that “if you have some very serious decoupling and broad scale use of tariffs, you could end up with a loss to world GDP of close to 7%”.

“These are very large numbers, 7% is basically losing the French and German economies. That’s the size of the loss that would be,” she continued.

Ms Gopinath also said tariffs worth hundreds of billions of dollars “is very different from the world we’ve lived in over the past two of three decades”.

The IMF’s deputy chief said another of the Fund’s main messages at its Annual Meetings was to warn on ballooning levels of global government debt.

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She said the current period of steady economic growth was a “moment to rebuild your fiscal buffers” as “this will not be the last crisis. There will be additional shocks. You will need the fiscal space to respond. And now is the time to do it”.

Ms Gopinath said it was also necessary to “look at the bright side” with a resilient world economy after “some very tough knocks”.

She suggested the world economy had seen a soft landing from the multiple crises.

“Past experiences with bringing down inflation have not been with a soft landing. It was a big, big increases in unemployment. So that was a big hit, and it has turned out to be much better than many feared”, she said.

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Ms Gopinath added that it was a “good win” for central banks everywhere that inflation has come down without high unemployment. But that now was the time to rebuild resilience in a fragile world.

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Women in Business

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Lessons for public speaking from the frontline of comedy. Plus: take women seriously or they will leave; women who made a mark in AI and in sustainability on career paths; AI tools to help job-hunters beat the bots; next generation boards

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Who is Noel Tata? Ratan Tata’s half-brother appointed as chairman of Tata Trusts- The Week

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Who is Noel Tata? Ratan Tata’s half-brother appointed as chairman of Tata Trusts- The Week

Noel Tata, the half-brother of Ratan Tata, has been appointed the new chairman of Tata Trusts, the country’s largest charitable organisation that controls the diversified Tata Group. His appointment follows the death of Ratan Tata late on Wednesday night.

Trustees of the various Tata Trusts met at a joint meeting in Mumbai on Friday. The trustees condoled the demise of Ratan Tata, recalling his yeoman services not only to the Tata Group, but also towards nation building.

In separate meetings, it was unanimously decided to appoint Noel Naval Tata as the chairman of Tata Trusts and the various trusts that constitute the Tata Trusts.

ALSO READ: What is Noel Tata’s net worth? Tata Trusts chief put Croma, Zudio and Westside on Indian retail map

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Reacting to his appointment, Noel said he was “deeply honoured and humbled” by the responsibility that had been cast on him and that he looked forward to carrying on the legacy of Ratan Tata and the founders of the Tata Group.

“Founded more than a century ago, the Tata Trusts are a unique vehicle for undertaking social good. On this solemn occasion, we rededicate ourselves to carrying on our developmental and philanthropic initiatives and contributing to play our part in nation-building,” he said. 

ALSO READ: Ratan Tata’s words of wisdom: 18 quotes every entrepreneur and investor should learn from India’s beloved industrialist

Sir Ratan Tata Trust and Sir Dorabji Tata Trust are the two main trusts that make the Tata Trusts, which carry out philanthropic activities in healthcare, nutrition, education, livelihood, environment, migration, skill development, sports, and disaster relief, among other things.

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The two trusts further comprise several foundations. For instance, the Sir Ratan Tata Trust’s allied trusts include Navajbai Ratan Tata Trust, Tata Education and Development Trust, Bai Hirabai J.N. Tata Navsari Charitable Foundation, and Sarvajanik Seva Trust. The Sir Dorabji Tata Trust includes the JN Endowment for the Higher Education of Indians, JRD Tata Trust, Jamsetji Tata Trust and four others.

ALSO READ: Who is Aloo Mistry? Noel Tata’s wife is the daughter of business tycoon Pallonji Mistry

TVS Group’s Venu Srinivasan and former defence secretary Vijay Singh are currently the vice-chairmen of Tata Trusts.

Tata Trusts hold a 66 per cent stake in Tata Sons, the holding company of Tata Group and has wielded a lot of influence over the aviation to software and consumer goods conglomerate over the years. In 2022-23, the trusts distributed around $56 million in grants.

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Historically someone from the Tata family or at least a Parsi has headed the trusts. The appointment of 67-year-old Noel Tata will thus go well among the Parsi community.

Noel has been a trustee on the board of Sir Ratan Tata Trust since 2019 and Dorabji Tata Trust since 2022. Therefore, his appointment in a way will signal the continuity of the service and the legacy that Tata Group founders have built over decades at the philanthropies. 

Noel also brings deep experience of being associated with various Tata companies over decades, which will be an advantage. While he remains the chairman of Tata Group’s retail arm Trent, he is also the chairman of Tata International, Voltas, and Tata Investment Corporation and is the vice-chairman of Titan and Tata Steel. 

Noel graduated from Sussex University in the UK and has completed the International Executive Programme from INSEAD and has generally maintained a low profile over the years, compared with Ratan Tata. Trent shares have been among the top performers within the Tata Group and now command a market cap of close to Rs 2.93 lakh crore.

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Noel has three children – Maya, Neville and Leah who are also associated with the Tata Group in various roles. Neville heads the group’s supermarket chain Star Bazaar. Leah is a vice-president at Indian Hotels, the group’s luxury hotel chain and Maya works at Tata Digital.   

Noel brings with him a wealth of experience, having successfully led international operations within the Tata Group, said corporate and legal advisor Akshat Khetan.  

“His global perspective, coupled with a deep understanding of the values that define the Tata brand, positions him well to continue the legacy of nation-building and community welfare established by his predecessors,” he said. 

However, Noel faces several challenges as he steps into this pivotal role,  said Khetan. 

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Ratan Tata’s passing leaves a significant vacuum, not only in terms of leadership but also the immense moral authority and personal connections he brought to the institution, he felt.

“In the coming years, one of his key tasks will be to ensure that the Trust continues to expand its impact, both in India and globally, while addressing emerging challenges such as climate change, social inequality, and digital transformation,” Khetan added. 

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Tackling fraud must start with the social media platforms

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David Geale, interim managing director of the Payment Systems Regulator, is right: to tackle payment fraud, the entire ecosystem must work together (“Social media groups pressed to do more in ‘war’ on fraud”, Interview, October 15).

That means holding social media giants, such as Meta, more accountable for the fraud that originates on their platforms.

While the Payment Systems Regulator’s new rules may protect consumers from financial loss, they neither stop fraud nor solve the underlying problem. The focus must shift to stopping fraud before it happens. And this is where Meta must step up. Much of this fraud begins on platforms like Facebook and Instagram. But where are the misinformation labels, the pop-up warnings and the preventive measures for unverified content — such as suspicious investment advice or fake job offers?

During the Covid-19 pandemic, social media companies used misinformation labels to combat unreliable health information. This model should be applied for fraud, giving users a moment of pause before potentially falling victim to scammers.

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Awareness campaigns need to go beyond vague warnings and show real examples of investment scams, impersonation schemes and more, highlighted by victim stories and statistics.

The problem for financial institutions is that many of these socially engineered scams are incredibly difficult to detect because victims believe they are making legitimate payments.

True change requires a united front across social media, banks, regulators and law enforcement.

Legislation such as the Online Safety Act falls short of holding social media firms accountable. Penalties or incentives are necessary to push platforms like Meta to take meaningful action.

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It’s time for Meta to stop looking the other way. Meta needs to act now. If we’re serious about tackling this scam epidemic, we must shift towards a preventive approach, and this starts with the platforms where the fraud begins.

Silvija Krupena
Director, Financial Intelligence Unit, RedCompass Labs, London, EC2 UK

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Etihad relaunches its Cadet Pilot Programme for 2025

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Etihad relaunches its Cadet Pilot Programme for 2025

Etihad has relaunched its new Cadet Pilot programme for 2025, which is now open for UAE nationals looking to join a pipeline of talent to fuel Etihad’s ambitious growth journey, with Etihad aiming to employ more than 600 Emirati pilots by 2030

Continue reading Etihad relaunches its Cadet Pilot Programme for 2025 at Business Traveller.

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What is Noel Tata’s net worth? Tata Trusts chief put Croma, Zudio and Westside on Indian retail map- The Week

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What is Noel Tata's net worth? Tata Trusts chief put Croma, Zudio and Westside on Indian retail map- The Week

Noel Tata, 67, has succeeded his half-brother Ratan Tata as the chairman of Tata Trusts following the death of the industrial icon. During his tenure as chairman of Trent Ltd, the primary retail arm of Tata Group, it shares have soared more than 6,000 per cent.

Noel’s marriage to Aloo Mistry, the daughter of Pallonji Mistry, who was once the largest individual shareholder of Tata Group, has also increased his influence in the company. The Shapoorji Pallonji family, which owns an 18.4 per cent stake in Tata Sons, is also among the wealthiest families in Europe with a base in Ireland.

ALSO READ: Who is Aloo Mistry? Noel Tata’s wife is the daughter of business tycoon Pallonji Mistry

What is Noel Tata’s net worth?

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Noel Tata’s net worth is estimated to be around $1.5 billion, which translates to Rs 12,620.60 crore. 

He became the managing director of Trent Ltd, founded by his mother Simone Tata, in 1999. He later took over as its chairman in 2014. Previously, he headed Tata International from 2010 to 2021. The Tata fashion brand, Westside, was acquired by Trent during Noel’s tenure. In 2016, Trent also launched Zudio, which is now one of the biggest clothing retailers in the country. He was also the brain behind Tata’s consumer electronics retailer, Croma, which has over 400 stores across India.

ALSO READ: Who is Noel Tata? Ratan Tata’s half-brother appointed as chairman of Tata Trusts

Noel was already on the boards of Sir Ratan Tata Trust and Sir Dorabji Tata Trust, the philanthropic arms of the Tata Trusts. Following his appointment to the chair of Tata Trusts, Noel said he was deeply honoured and humbled by the responsibility that has been cast on him by his fellow trustees. “I look forward to carrying on the legacy of Ratan N Tata and the founders of the Tata Group,” he said, adding that the company will continue to play its part in building India.

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ALSO READ: Who are Noel Tata’s children? Meet the next generation of Tatas who will lead the conglomerate in future

Tata Trusts was established by Jamsetji Tata, the great-grandfather of Noel and Ratan, in 1892. Noel was earlier close to assuming the chair of Tata Sons, the holding firm for Tata Group, in 2012. However, the role went to his wife Aloo Mistry’s brother Cyrus Mistry with the backing of Ratan. In 2016, Cyrus was ousted due to his working style and was replaced by N. Chandrashekharan.

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Elon Musk’s $1mn-a-day voter giveaway could violate US law, DoJ warns

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The US Department of Justice has warned Elon Musk’s political action committee it may be violating federal law after the world’s richest man pledged to award $1mn a day to registered voters who sign a petition.

The DoJ notified America Pac that the prizes Musk hands out to registered voters may flout US law, which bars paying individuals to register to vote, said a person familiar with the matter.

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The billionaire entrepreneur and Tesla chief executive, who has become an ardent supporter of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, said he would give away a daily $1mn prize to a registered voter in a swing state who had signed the petition backing constitutional protections for free speech and the right to bear arms.

The giveaway is set to continue until the presidential election on November 5, when Trump faces vice-president Kamala Harris in a tight race.

Musk gave a $1mn cheque on Saturday to an audience member at a rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and another at an event in Pittsburgh on Sunday as he campaigned in the swing state. A third voter in the state received the giveaway in McKees Rocks, followed by another in Holly Springs, North Carolina.

America Pac and a representative for Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The DoJ declined to comment on the letter, which was first reported by CNN.

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Musk has become one of Trump’s biggest corporate backers and a vocal cheerleader, appearing alongside him at rallies and pouring millions of dollars into boosting the ex-president.

Musk gave nearly $75mn to America Pac during the third quarter, according to a federal filing. The group has spent more than $133mn, according to the independent non-profit OpenSecrets.

The Pac on Sunday shared additional details about the prizes in a post on X, which is owned by Musk, saying that “a registered swing state voter who signs the petition will be selected to earn $1M as a spokesperson for America PAC”.

The online petition also promises $47 for each registered voter who is referred to sign it.

The Trump campaign this week said Musk would match donations to the campaign raised via text message drives.

Additional reporting by Alex Rogers, Colby Smith, Stephen Morris and George Hammond

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