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The global economy is facing rifts comparable to the pressures that resulted in “economic nationalism”, a collapse in global trade and the Great Depression of the 1920s, the president of the European Central Bank has warned.

“We have faced the worst pandemic since the 1920s, the worst conflict in Europe since the 1940s and the worst energy shock since the 1970s,” said Christine Lagarde on Friday, adding that these disruptions combined with factors such as supply chain problems had permanently changed global economic activity.

In a speech at the IMF in Washington two days after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, pushing US equity markets to record highs, the ECB president argued that several parallels “between the “two twenties — the 1920s and 2020s — stand out”, pointing to “setbacks in global trade integration” and technological advances in both eras.

While monetary policy in the 1920s made matters worse as adherence to the gold standard pushed leading economies into deflation and banking crises, “we are in a better position today to address these structural changes than our predecessors were”, stressed Lagarde.

A century ago, she said, central bankers learnt the hard way that pegging the currency to gold and fixed exchange rates was “not robust in times of profound structural change” as it pushed the world into deflation, fuelling “economic malaise” and contributing to a “cycle of economic nationalism”.

Today, central bankers’ tools for preserving price stability “have proved effective”, she said. Lagarde pointed to the quick fall in inflation once central banks started to raise rates in 2022. Consumer prices had shot up following a surge in post-pandemic demand, global supply chain disruptions and big rises in energy prices after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

She described the episode as an “extreme stress test” for monetary policy.

Central bankers have been able to ease monetary policy in recent months as price pressures abated. Annual inflation in the Eurozone peaked at 10.6 per cent in October 2022 but hit a three-year low of 2.2 per cent in August.

Lagarde said it was “remarkable” that central banks managed to get inflation under control within less than two years while avoiding a rise in joblessness. “It is rare to avoid a major deterioration in employment when central banks raise rates in response to high energy prices. But employment has risen by 2.8mn people in the euro area since the end of 2022,” she said.

However, the ECB president warned against complacency, saying that issues including possible setbacks to globalisation, a partial disintegration of global supply chains, the market power of tech giants such as Google and the “rapid development of artificial intelligence” could all test central bankers.

Uncertainty would “remain high” for monetary policymakers, Lagarde said, adding: “We need to manage it better.”

The ECB will investigate these issues in detail in its looming strategy review, she said. While its 2 per cent medium-term inflation target would not be scrutinised, “we will consider what we can learn from our past experience with too-low and too-high inflation”, she said.

The ECB would also analyse its assessment and disclosure of risks. For example, its baseline inflation scenario could be “balanced . . . with real-time information”, and the central bank could also disclose alternative scenarios.

America’s Three Mile Island nuclear energy plant, the site of a high-profile accident that discouraged nuclear power development in the US for decades, is preparing to reopen as Microsoft looks for ways to satisfy its growing energy needs.

The tech giant said it had signed a 20-year deal to purchase power from the Pennsylvania plant, which would reopen in 2028 after improvements.

The agreement is intended to provide the company with a clean source of energy as power-hungry data centres for artificial intelligence (AI) expand.

The plan will now go to regulators for approval.

The owner of the plant, Constellation Energy, said the reactor it planned to restart was adjacent to, but “fully independent” of the unit that had been involved in the 1979 accident, the worst in US history.

It caused no injuries or deaths but it provoked widespread fear and mistrust among the US public.

But nuclear power is the subject of renewed interest as concerns about climate change grow – and companies face increased energy needs tied to advances in artificial intelligence.

In a statement announcing the deal, Constellation boss Joe Dominguez said nuclear plants were the “only energy sources” that could consistently deliver an abundance of carbon-free energy.

“Before it was prematurely shuttered due to poor economics, this plant was among the safest and most reliable nuclear plants on the grid, and we look forward to bringing it back with a new name and a renewed mission,” he said.

Microsoft called it a “milestone” in its efforts to “help decarbonize the grid”.

On 28 March, 1979, a combination of mechanical failure and human error led to a partial meltdown at the nuclear power plant in central Pennsylvania.

The accident occurred about 04:00 in the Three Mile Island plant’s second unit.

The plant’s Unit 1 – which would reopen under the Microsoft deal – continued to generate power until closing in 2019.

Its owner at the time, Exelon, which spun out Constellation as an independent business in 2022, said the low cost of natural gas extraction had made nuclear-generated electricity unprofitable.

Constellation said it would invest $1.6bn (£1.2bn) to upgrade the facility, which it would seek approval to operate through 2054.

Reopening the plant would create 3,400 direct and indirect jobs and add more than 800 megawatts of carbon-free electricity to the grid, generating billions of dollars in taxes and other economic activity, according to a study by The Brattle Group cited by Constellation.

Local media reported earlier this month that word of its possible revival had drawn some protesters.

Microsoft is not the only tech company that is turning to nuclear power as its energy needs expand.

Earlier this year, Amazon also signed a deal which involves purchasing nuclear energy to power a data centre. Those plans are now under scrutiny by regulators.

In this Weekend Essay, Amanda Newman Smith shares a personal story highlighting the importance of excellent customer service, especially when dealing with vulnerable clients. She contrasts negative experiences with a paint company and a clock supplier against a positive resolution with NatWest bank when assisting her elderly mother. This episode underscores the significance of empathy, clear communication, and proactive problem-solving in building trust and loyalty.

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The US derivatives watchdog has finalised the first federal guidelines for unregulated carbon offsets, as the Biden administration seeks to standardise a disorderly market in a bid to tackle climate change. 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission adopted measures announced on Friday that ask exchanges to validate carbon offset derivatives, which base their prices on those of financial instruments bought by companies to offset emissions.

Treasury secretary Janet Yellen issued a statement on Friday praising the new guidelines as a means to “promote the integrity of carbon credits and enable greater liquidity and price transparency”.

The unregulated market for carbon credits is estimated to grow to $100bn by 2030, up from $2bn this year, according to Morgan Stanley. But the voluntary carbon derivatives market has languished, with only a handful of contracts attracting substantial trading volume due to concerns about credibility.

“We actually have a legal responsibility to ensure the health and transparency of both the derivative side, but also the underlying cash market,” CFTC chair Rostin Behnam told the Financial Times.

The guidelines, which were initially proposed in December, seek to crack down on manipulation and price distortions by pushing exchanges to ensure that voluntary carbon credit derivatives comply with CFTC regulation as well as US law. 

“With any project that has the scale that the carbon market is seeking, you’re going to have error rates, you’re going to have bad actors,” Behnam said. 

The CFTC voted 4-1 in favour of adopting the guidelines, with Summer Mersinger, one of the agency’s two Republican commissioners, voting against.

Boosting the reputation of carbon markets has been a political priority for the administration of US President Joe Biden, which sees carbon credits as a way to lure more private sector money into renewable energy and conservation.

While the credits have been initially popular among companies, they have also attracted criticism for failing to deliver the carbon removals they promise.

Earlier this summer, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen unveiled guidelines for developers selling credits, and for the companies buying them to offset emissions. Former US climate envoy John Kerry has also thrown his weight behind carbon credit markets, launching a state department-led initiative in 2022 aimed at decarbonising regional power sectors.

Despite the political momentum behind efforts to develop voluntary carbon markets, Behnam cautioned that the energy transition would “take decades”.

“This notion that we’re going to be able to just transition to renewables in the near future and not rely on carbon-based energy sources . . . it’s not reality, right?” said Behnam. “The transition is going to take time.”

The guidance puts the onus on exchanges registered with the agency to ensure the integrity of voluntary carbon credit derivatives.

Exchanges should consider whether a contract ensures that a project creates emission reductions that would not occur without it. They should also seek to ensure there is no “double-counting”, which occurs when multiple carbon credits are backed by the same trees, for example.

The guidance “will help professionalise and scale voluntary carbon markets,” said Mark Carney, the UN special envoy on climate action and finance and former Bank of England governor. “Other global regulators should now follow the CFTC’s lead.”

Guidance is not the same as regulation, a more powerful tool. But “it was pretty clear that a guidance document would be the best starting point . . . and one that would get support from a broad coalition of stakeholders”, Behnam said.

For years, the unregulated carbon market has suffered from greenwashing concerns, and the guidelines come as the market has narrowed. Derivatives exchange CME Group on August 30 said it would delist one of its futures products for emissions offsets that was launched only two years ago.

Recent surveys of carbon credit users have found worries about carbon offsets’ credibility has discouraged businesses from buying them, MSCI said in a September 19 report.

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