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Israel assures US that retaliation against Iran will target military

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Top Israeli officials have told the US that they are planning to limit an expected counterstrike against Iran to military targets rather than hitting the energy sector or nuclear facilities, according to two people close to the talks.

The assurances from Israel come as the US has been pressing Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to avoid retaliation against Iran that could trigger further escalation and a broader conflict in the Middle East, with just three weeks to go before the US presidential election.

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Oil prices dropped sharply on Monday evening on reports that Israel would restrict its response. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell almost 3 per cent on Tuesday to $75 a barrel.

Washington’s expectations that Israel will exercise some restraint in its planned attack on Iran — a response to a ballistic missile attack on Israel from Iran earlier this month — were cemented during call between Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden last week that the White House described as “productive”.

A third person briefed on the situation said “the thinking” was for Israel to respond before the US election in November, and that Israel was closely co-ordinating its planning to ensure the counterstrike would not influence American voters.

Netanyahu’s office said: “We listen to the opinions of the US, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests.” The Washington Post first reported on Monday that Netanyahu had reassured Biden over Israel’s plans. The White House declined to comment.

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The signal from Israel over its intentions was followed this weekend by the Pentagon announcing that it would send an advanced antimissile system to Israel, manned by US troops, in order to help defend the country against a potential Iranian response.

US officials have cautioned that their ability to influence Israel’s actions is limited, despite the fact that America is Israel’s most powerful ally and a top supplier of military aid.

But even before the call between Biden and Netanyahu, the Financial Times reported this month that Washington expected a measured response from Israel against Tehran, believing that Israel did not want the conflict with Iran to spiral further out of control.

Biden had made it clear that he did not want to see any strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities or the energy sector, which threatened to trigger a jump in oil prices ahead of the US election.

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Kamala Harris, the US vice-president and Democratic candidate for president, is already vulnerable to criticism over her handling of inflation from Donald Trump, the former president and Republican rival, which would be exacerbated by a sudden new surge in the cost of petrol.

The talks over Israel’s counterstrike against Iran unfolded as officials in Washington were warily watching Israel’s escalating military offensive and heavy bombing in Lebanon against the militant group Hizbollah.

Fighting continued on Tuesday morning with Hizbollah saying that it clashed with Israeli troops in the village of Rab Thalatheen in the south of the country. Israel said that its jets bombed 230 sites in Lebanon and Gaza overnight.

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Meanwhile, Israeli attacks on Gaza have intensified in recent days, triggering new warnings from Washington about the protection of civilians.

“The UN reports that no food has entered northern Gaza in nearly 2 weeks,” Harris wrote on X on Sunday. “Israel must urgently do more to facilitate the flow of aid to those in need . . . International humanitarian law must be respected.”

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Universal Credit and benefits could rise by up to £163 a year – how much better off will you be?

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Universal Credit and benefits could rise by up to £163 a year - how much better off will you be?

MILLIONS of households will this week find out how much their Universal Credit or benefits will rise by next year.

Payments usually rise every April in order to keep up with the cost of things such as food, fuel or household bills.

Millions of households on benefits are set to get a payment rise next year

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Millions of households on benefits are set to get a payment rise next yearCredit: Alamy

The process is called “uprating” and payments usually increase in line with the previous September’s inflation figure, which will be published on Wednesday.

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Inflation is the measure of how much the prices of goods and services have changed over the past year.

Figures tracking the rate of inflation are published every month but September’s figure is the only one used to increase benefits payments.

Once the figures are released it is expected that the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) will later confirm how much benefits will be increased – usually before the end of the year.

This year the majority of benefits increased by 6.7% although a few rose by as much as 8.5%.

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Meanwhile, in 2023 inflation-linked benefits and tax credits were hiked by 10.1%.

But Universal Credit and other benefits are expected to rise by far less next year.

Inflation was at 2.2% in August and experts expect that this will remain the case for September.

At this rate a single person aged over 25 who is claiming Universal Credit would receive £402.11 a month from April.

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This is £8.66 per month more than the £393.45 they currently get.

Three key benefits that YOU could be missing out on, and one even gives you a free TV Licence

In comparison, last year monthly Universal Credit payments were hiked by £24.71.

Joint applicants who are aged over 25 may receive around £631.19 per month from April, £13.59 more than they currently get.

This would add up to a £163.08 difference over the course of a year.

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But it is still substantially less than the £38.78 a month, or £465.36 a year, uptick they received this year.

Meanwhile, those who are single and aged under 25 could see their currently monthly benefit climb by £6.86.

Everything you need to know about Universal Credit

This would mean their payments rise from £311.68 per month to £318.54 next spring.

The uptick is equivalent to around a third of the boost this year, which was about £19.58 per month.

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In comparison, couples who are under 25 could see their payments climb from £489.23 to £500 per month, a difference of just £10.77.

By contrast, this year they saw a £30.72 increase to their payments.

The exact amount more you will get will depend on how much you get now, which can vary depending on your circumstances.

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Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said these increases are “tiny” compared to the amount benefits were boosted during times of higher inflation.

She said: “When you spend a larger proportion of your income on the essentials, and things like energy prices remain so high, making ends meet will still be an enormous struggle for an awful lot of people.”

The amount that benefits payments will go up by could still be slightly higher or lower depending on what inflation actually is.

The Office for National Statistics will release the data on Wednesday morning at 7am.

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The following benefits are also legally required to increase each April in line with the previous September’s rate of inflation: 

  • Personal independence payment (PIP)
  • Disability living allowance
  • Attendance allowance
  • Incapacity benefit
  • Severe disablement allowance
  • Industrial injuries benefit
  • Carer’s allowance
  • Additional state pension
  • Guardian’s allowance

This could mean those who currently receive the lower rate of Attendance Allowance could see their payments rise from £72.65 to £75.56 a week.

Meanwhile people on the higher rate could see their weekly payment boosted from £108.55 to £122.89 a week.

In comparison, people who get Carer’s Allowance could get £85.18 each week from April, £3.28 more than they currently do.

But it is important to bear in mind that the government could choose to increase benefit rates by a different amount.

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Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell, said budgets could be especially tight this year as some additional support is no longer available.

“People are still feeling the pinch, especially since additional cost of living payments ended last February,” he said.

“The hike will once again be considerably smaller than the increase for pensioners, who will see their payments increase by 4% thanks to the triple lock.”

How much will the state pension increase by?

State pension payments also increase every April.

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Under an arrangement called the “triple lock” the state pension rises each year by either 2.5%, inflation or earnings growth, depending on which one is higher.

Earnings figures for the three months to July are used to calculate the yearly increase.

This year they indicated that total pay rose at a rate of 4% annually, which is much higher than the rate of inflation.

If this figure is used then the full state pension would rise by £460 next April.

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This would mean a typical pensioner who receives the full new state pension would get £230.05 a week, up from £221.20 this year.

Over the space of a year this would give them an income of £11,962.50.

Although this is much higher than the amount benefits are set to rise, it is still well below the boost seen last year.

Pensioners were handed an extra £900 a year when the state pension rose by 8.5% last April.

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How to get help now

If you’re struggling to make ends meet then there is help available to you.

For example, you could get hundreds of pounds from your local council through its Household Support Fund.

The scheme aims to provide cash to households struggling to pay for essentials such as water, energy and household items.

For example, families in Birmingham can get £200 to help with winter costs.

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What you can get will depend where you live and what support is on offer.

Contact your local council for more information and to apply.

If you are struggling to pay your water, broadband or energy bills then contact your supplier.

They may be able to give you a discount on your bill or set up a payment plan to get you back on track.

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Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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EU ministers nod to support for nuclear energy ahead of UN climate summit

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EU ministers have nodded to support for nuclear energy for the first time as part of the bloc’s mandate for the UN climate summit, in a sign of atomic power’s rising prominence as an energy source.

Deep divisions between France and Germany held up the discussions over the EU’s negotiating stance for the COP29 gathering, but EU countries ultimately agreed that they should call to accelerate “low-emissions technologies” in line with a deal made at the previous COP28 summit that included nuclear power.

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The push for more recognition of nuclear energy symbolises a shift in attitudes towards the power source in Europe, which were hardened against it following Japan’s Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.

A group of mostly eastern European countries and France will publish a paper on Tuesday calling for Brussels to recognise the “pivotal role” of nuclear energy and ensure it is “duly integrated” in new proposals for EU energy regulation.

On the sidelines of the meeting on Monday, the Dutch and French governments also signed an agreement to increase co-operation on nuclear energy and push for more “institutional support” for nuclear power.

But several EU countries, including Germany, Austria and Denmark, fear that too much focus on nuclear could draw funds away from renewable energy as a cheaper, cleaner and faster way to cut the greenhouse gas emissions behind climate change.

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“We see that nuclear has been kept alive by enormous amounts of public money without having an economically viable business model, while at the same time we see renewables costs decrease enormously,” said Leonore Gewessler, Austria’s climate minister. “Let’s put money where the most cost-efficient solution is — and that‘s renewables.”

The text agreed late on Monday sets out the EU’s negotiating mandate for the UN climate summit to be hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month and is intended to establish the EU as one of the most ambitious negotiating parties.

Officials involved in the discussions said the nuclear debate had distracted from wider questions about the EU’s own energy mix and its contributions to international climate finance.

Linda Kachler, executive director of the Brussels-based think-tank Strategic Perspectives, said it was an “ideological debate on who is in favour of what technology instead of the debate on how fast the EU can get rid of fossil fuels, especially from Russia”.

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A European official involved in the negotiations said nuclear positions had become “religious” and that the “elephant in the room” was the lack of discussion over how much the EU would contribute in funding to poorer countries most affected by climate change.

A key focus of the summit — dubbed by its organisers as the “finance COP” — is a new target for providing climate finance for the most vulnerable countries.

Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, almost 200 countries must agree a new figure for climate finance by next year, meaning that COP29 is the last chance to settle on a goal.

Positions on the shape and quantum of a potential target are still far apart, with developing countries calling for an amount in the region of $1tn-$1.3tn.

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Developed countries such as those in the EU, which is the biggest donor of climate finance, have been cautious about committing more public funds without accompanying structures to increase private funding.

They have also pushed for the base of donor countries to be broadened to nations such as China, Singapore and Saudi Arabia, which are considered under UN criteria set in 1992 as “developing” countries but are now industrially and financially powerful.

Eamon Ryan, Ireland’s climate minister, said he expected Baku to be the “most difficult [COP] negotiation since Paris . . . because it is about the money.”

Several EU ministers including Ryan and French climate minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher said there needed to be more focus on creating structures such as a capital markets union in Africa that would help raise money for renewable energy projects.

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The EU’s climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said he had held “frequent fruitful discussions . . . on how to address financing” at a preliminary meeting in Baku last week.

“The way we will approach this negotiation in terms of financing is threefold,” he said. “Making sure there is more money available, and that holds good for both the public and private. Secondly making sure we don’t spread ourselves too thin but it lands with those most in need, and third lets make sure that everyone with the ability to pay actually rises to the occasion.”

Kai Mykkänen, Finland’s climate minister, said: “We can’t be in a situation forever where countries like Singapore . . . are still treated as developing countries even if their GDP per capita might be higher than that of many EU countries.”

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Lowest wage growth in over two years fuels interest-rate speculation

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UK inflation holds steady at 2.2%: reaction

Wage growth in the UK has slowed significantly, with pay excluding bonuses rising by just 4.9% between June and August compared to a year ago.

This marks the slowest rate of wage growth in over two years – only 3.8% when bonuses are factored in.

Adjusted for inflation, wages rose by 1.9% excluding bonuses and 0.9% including them.

These figures, released today (15 October) by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), have fuelled expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates in November.

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Despite wages continuing to rise faster than inflation, analysts believe this is unlikely to delay a rate cut, potentially to 4.75% from the current 5%.

The figures also showed that the UK’s unemployment rate dropped to 4%, while the employment rate rose to 75%.

The number of people considered economically inactive fell to 21.8%.

However, the ONS has urged caution with its unemployment data due to issues with its survey, though alternative measures suggest the number of employees on payrolls has stabilised.

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Meanwhile, employers are facing higher costs and are hesitant to make significant changes ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget on 30 October.

Chancellor Reeves ‘wrapping herself in a straight jacket’ ahead of Budget

Commenting on the figures, Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown, said:

“Worrisome wage growth is in retreat, lifting expectations that borrowing costs will soon fall further. The rate of increase in average earnings (including bonuses) has fallen to 3.8%, a hugely significant drop given how pay growth had raced away in recent years.

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“Although there had been forecasts for an even steeper fall, and wages are still beating inflation, this will still assuage concerns among policymakers about the risk that consumer price rises will pop back up into troublesome territory. “

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, added: “With only a few weeks until the next Bank of England interest-rate announcement, today’s figures, along with last week’s GDP data and tomorrow’s inflation number, will play a vital role in the monetary policy committee’s decision-making.

“Labour’s first budget will also take place before the Bank’s MPC meeting, so the Bank will closely monitor market reactions and potential economic impacts.

“Though we could see another rate cut at the next meeting, it is seeming increasingly likely that the Bank of England will continue on its ‘slow and steady’ path with a 0.25% cut at most.”

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STARLUX Airlines growing Taichung base

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STARLUX Airlines growing Taichung base

The premium carrier will add flights to Takamatsu from its Taichung base

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UK wage growth falls to 4.9%

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UK wage growth fell to 4.9 per cent in the three months to August, while growth in payroll employment flattened, official data showed on Tuesday.

Annual earnings growth, excluding bonuses, was in line with analysts’ expectations, and compared with 5.1 per cent in the three months to July, the Office for National Statistics said.

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Including bonuses, wage growth was lower at 3.8 per cent, but this figure was skewed by large one-off bonuses to public sector workers last year.

The ONS said tax records showed that payroll employment fell slightly, by 35,000 or 0.1 per cent, in August while provisional figures for September suggested employment was virtually unchanged.

The data adds to evidence that pay pressures in the economy are easing. It also corroborates recent business surveys suggesting many employers have put hiring on hold ahead of this month’s Budget as they await more certainty over government policy on tax and spending.

“Should these labour market trends continue, Britain’s brief era of healthy pay growth could soon end,” said Charlie McCurdy, economist at the Resolution Foundation think-tank.

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Wages are still rising faster than inflation, with real terms growth of 1.9 per cent in the three months to August excluding bonuses, and 0.9 per cent including one-off payments.

But Ben Harrison, director of the Work Foundation at Lancaster University, noted that even at the end of “a record 25-month run” of pay growth above 5 per cent, high inflation had left workers only £14 a week better off on average in real terms than two years ago, and £20 better off than in 2008.

The ONS also pointed to an ongoing decline in vacancies, which fell over the past quarter in all industries, leaving the total number of open posts at 841,000 — just above the pre-pandemic level.

Analysts said the figures supported the case for the Bank of England to continue cutting interest rates in November, following its decision in August to reduce the benchmark rate to 5 per cent.

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Ashley Webb, at the consultancy Capital Economics, said the data showed private sector pay growth slowing in line with the BoE’s own forecasts, leaving a November rate cut “looking even more likely”.

Policymakers on the Monetary Policy Committee want to see clear evidence that the pay pressures that have been driving service price inflation are easing before they cut interest rates again.

Huw Pill, the BoE’s chief economist, said earlier this month there was “ample reason” for caution to avoid cutting borrowing costs too far or too fast.

Tracking the true state of the UK labour market has been especially difficult for rate-setters because ongoing problems with the ONS’s labour force survey mean its key estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity are unreliable.

Wage figures are based on a different survey, and policymakers have been able to use administrative data — including the payroll records — and non-official surveys to help form a picture of hiring and employment.

The official LFS-based estimates for the three months to August suggest more strength than other sources, showing unemployment falling from 4.1 per cent to 4 per cent in the latest month, with employment strengthening.

However, the ONS said these numbers were at odds with the other sources and should be viewed with caution.

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Sustainable fund specialist Robeco launches first ETFs

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Dutch asset manager Robeco will today launch its first exchange traded funds, joining a phalanx of traditional active managers that have embraced the fast-growing fund format.

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While most ETFs have traditionally been passive index-tracking funds, actively managed ETFs have taken off in recent years and now account for about $1bn of the industry’s $14bn of assets under management, according to ETFGI, a consultancy.

They have proved lucrative for asset managers, particularly in the US, where they have seized 72 per cent of the net new fee revenue emanating from inflows into ETFs so far this year, according to Morningstar data, even as actively managed mutual funds have continued to haemorrhage money.

The active ETF market is less well developed in Europe, accounting for about 2 per cent of the continent’s $2.2tn in ETF assets. However, activity is hotting up with both Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest and BNP Paribas Asset Management launching their first active ETFs in Europe earlier this year, while BlackRock’s iShares debuted its first active equity ETFs. Jupiter Asset Management and Eurizon Capital are among those poised to follow suit.

The quartet of active ETFs from Rotterdam-based Robeco, a subsidiary of Japanese financial conglomerate Orix Corporation, are its first ETFs of any kind.

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All four tap into Robeco’s existing specialities in its mutual fund business. The Dutch group earned a reputation as an early adopter of “sustainable” investment long before it became a fashionable bandwagon to jump on.

As a result, all but €3bn of its €196bn of assets under management were managed according to environmental, social and governance principles at the end of June. It also has two decades of experience with “enhanced” indexing strategies with systematic quantitative investing, which accounts for €76bn of its assets.

Its 3D Global Equity, US Equity and European Equity Ucits ETFs will tap into both of these strands in an attempt to balance risk, return and sustainability.

The fourth fund, the Robeco Dynamic Theme Machine Ucits ETF “showcases the company’s next-generation quantitative capabilities, utilising advanced natural language processing techniques to identify emerging investment themes early”, it says.

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All four ETFs will be listed in Frankfurt, with additional listings, including on the London stock exchange, anticipated in “the coming months”. The 3D funds will have fees of 0.2-0.25 per cent, with the Dynamic Theme ETF priced at 0.55 per cent.

“Robeco has a long heritage of active management and is recognised as a leader in sustainable investing,” said Nick King, head of ETFs.

One further 3D ETF, an Emerging Markets Equity product, is scheduled to launch in the first quarter of 2025, with fixed-income ETFs also due next year.

Robeco’s mutual fund range has suffered from outflows of late, with a net €7.7bn heading out of the door in 2023 and €881mn in the first eight months of this year, according to data from Morningstar Direct.

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However, Robeco denied its push into ETFs was a reaction to this. “The launch of the active ETF range is an integral part of our corporate strategy [for] 2021-2025,” it said.

“We see active ETFs as an additional vehicle to monetise our intellectual property in sustainable investing, quant, credits and thematic investing.”

Peter Sleep, investment director of wealth manager Callanish Capital, welcomed the launches.

“In my opinion, Robeco is one of the highest-quality, classiest outfits in Europe,” he said. “They were thought leaders in ESG before everyone else jumped on the bandwagon and have a team of research professionals comparable to AQR and Dimensional”, two well-regarded US quant houses.

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Of the 20-25bp fees for the 3D ETFs, Sleep said: “That strikes me as very reasonable, and consistent with what we have seen from other big low-tracking-error active funds from JPMorgan, Fidelity and Franklin Templeton.”

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