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Keir Starmer reveals what needs to get ‘worse’ before it gets better

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Good morning from Liverpool. One reason why this has been an unusual Labour party conference is this is an unusual moment in British politics. We have just had an election that replaced a Conservative government with a Labour one — in any case something that doesn’t happen all that often — and a party conference that has taken place after the King’s Speech but before the first Budget, something I don’t think has ever happened before.

As a result, most ministers’ speeches have been pretty uneventful, as was Keir Starmer’s yesterday (other than him saying the word “sausages” rather than “hostages” in his speech).

Inside Politics is edited by Georgina Quach. Read the previous edition of the newsletter here. Please send gossip, thoughts and feedback to insidepolitics@ft.com

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One reason why Keir Starmer’s declaration that “things will get worse before they get better” has landed badly, at least in regard to his and the government’s approval ratings, is that it simply wasn’t clear to anyone really what needed to “get worse”.

In 2010, David Cameron and George Osborne’s argument was that what needed to get worse was some public services: some would have to do more with less money and some things would stop entirely. There was clearly a recognisable theory of change that enjoyed the support of his party and some outside of it.

The most significant thing Starmer did in his speech was to give the first indications of what “worse” actually might mean:

So if we want justice to be served some communities must live close to new prisons.

If we want to maintain support for the welfare state, then we will legislate to stop benefit fraud. Do everything we can to tackle worklessness. 

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If we want cheaper electricity, we need new pylons overground otherwise the burden on taxpayers is too much.

If we want home ownership to be a credible aspiration for our children, then every community has a duty to contribute to that purpose.

If we want to tackle illegal migration seriously, we can’t pretend there’s a magical process that allows you to return people here unlawfully without accepting that process will also grant some people asylum.  

If we want to be serious about levelling-up, then we must be proud to be the party of wealth creation. Unashamed to partner with the private sector.  

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And perhaps most importantly of all, that just because we all want low taxes and good public services that does not mean that the iron law of properly funding policies can be ignored, because it can’t. 

One thing to note here is that a lot of these involve building things and the attendant disruption that comes with them, and none of them really lay the groundwork for further reductions in what the state currently does more broadly.

Just before flying to New York, the prime minister reiterated to BBC Today that listing these changes was about staving off the “politics of easy answers”: “Obviously there are always considerations about where you put anything, but this general idea — we’ve had it from the last government in spades — where you promise more houses, but then everybody can say ‘but not near me’, cheaper electricity but we can’t build the pylons, more people to prison but we haven’t built the prisons.”

British politics is going to continue to be in an odd state of phoney war between now and the Budget on October 30. But I think we should all expect to see in that Budget quite a lot about building and infrastructure.

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Because I am deeply misanthropic, there comes a time during party conference season when I am seized by a desire to spend the evening in my own company watching a film. I saw His Three Daughters again, which is now on Netflix, and really is a terrific movie.

Top stories today

  • Struggling on | Troubled intercity rail operator Avanti West Coast will not be stripped of its contract early by the UK government, according to people with knowledge of the plans. 

  • ‘For women, prison isn’t working’ | A new “women’s justice board” will be set up to cut the female prison population in England and Wales as part of a longer-term push to reduce the number of women’s jails, the justice secretary has said.

  • SNP under pressure | The number of homeless households in Scotland has hit a 12-year high as a widening housing crisis across the UK leaves record numbers in insecure accommodation.

  • Drab deal? | Corporate chiefs will be asking Labour to refund them for a £3,000-a-head business day at the party’s conference. The Times’s Geraldine Scott and Aubrey Allegretti heard from three companies that they would be asking for their money back after they got “minimal time” with ministers and were “talked [at] from the stage for four hours”.

  • Little rabbit | Rachel Reeves is considering boosting childcare funding to fuel growth, as a rabbit in her Budget, reports Bloomberg. According to people familiar with the matter, she sees parents returning to work as a way to boost growth and improve productivity, though one person warned she is yet to sign off any spending plans for October 30 and is unlikely to approve large commitments.

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Ludwig TV review — David Mitchell solves puzzles and crimes in BBC comedy-mystery

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There are times when it’s handy to have a doctor in the family, and others that make you glad to be related to a professional puzzle setter. When Lucy’s husband suddenly disappears leaving behind only a coded message, she calls on her reclusive brother-in-law to help make sense of it all. But John is something of an enigma himself. He is so confounded by the world outside crossword grids and sudoku cells that he can barely be convinced to leave his home, let alone delve into a potential police conspiracy.

Yet that’s precisely what’s required of John in Ludwig, a new BBC comedy-mystery series starring David Mitchell. Working well within his comfort zone, he plays John like a not-so distant relative of Mark Corrigan, the nerdy, neurotic loan manager with whom he made his name in Peep Show. John meanwhile finds himself having to play his identical twin James (a Cambridge detective) in order to infiltrate the station and gather information about what his brother was investigating before vanishing.

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Though he reluctantly goes undercover at the behest of Lucy (Anna Maxwell Martin), John soon discovers that he has a knack for solving crimes with his logic-based approach. In addition to the main story, each episode introduces a standalone case from the apparent murder hotspot that is picturesque Cambridge.

A throwback to the kind of “mystery-of-the-week” shows that were once a small screen staple, Ludwig is as old-fashioned as its Nokia-wielding, jalopy-driving protagonist. But cosiness becomes stifling and dull in a show that offers little else. Poorly served by a 60-minute format, it is surprisingly laborious despite never displaying any ambition beyond being easy, anodyne viewing.

Too often the humour feels lacklustre as it pokes gentle fun at John’s awkwardness — or else is lacking entirely. The mystery component meanwhile is encumbered with clunky exposition and resolutions that demonstrate John’s smarts without inviting us to test our own. Instead, Ludwig makes incongruous attempts to pull on our heartstrings with a flimsy back-story about John’s unhappy childhood. The result is a series that’s more like a jumbled word search than a well-constructed cryptic.

★★☆☆☆

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On BBC1 from September 25 at 9pm with new episodes weekly, and on iPlayer now

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Advise Wise enhances platform to allow clients’ medical data

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Seccl names Tom Harris as new chief technology officer

Advise Wise has upgraded its platform to enable advisers to input clients’ medical information using metric units for height and weight.

Additionally, advisers can now view clients’ Body Mass Index (BMI) directly within the system as an indication of whether it will affect rates.

The later life lending platform said entering accurate medical details is crucial in getting individual base pricing and in identifying the best plans for clients.

Common health conditions such as high blood pressure can impact potential interest rates or allow for a larger release amount.

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Currently, over 40% of advisers use the platform to enter client medical information, highlighting that nearly 60% of customers may be missing out on better plans by not including their health data.

Advise Wise said the updated feature aligns with its mission to empower advisers in reaching more by simplifying the client assessment process.

Benjamin Wells, head of product and development at Advise Wise, said: “We’ve seen first-hand how providing detailed medical information can significantly affect the financial outcome for customers.

Interest rates can drop by over 1% for certain medical conditions, and some customers can release more than 10% extra of their property value. Our goal is to make the journey as seamless as possible, using technology to deliver the best outcomes for advisers and their clients.”

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Last month, Advise Wise introduced its latest API integration with Canada Life. The partnership allow users to connect to Canada Life’s portal through their Advise Wise account.

The integration will save advisers time by not having to log into the lender’s portal and re-key all the client case details for each KFI request and application submission.

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Rockström initiative finds planet Earth in ‘critical condition’

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Visit our Moral Money hub for all the latest ESG news, opinion and analysis from around the FT

President Joe Biden was on lively form here in New York yesterday as he delivered a speech trumpeting his administration’s work to galvanise clean energy investment in the US and beyond.

“It’s the perfect time to go big — the market for clean energy is booming,” Biden said.

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His remarks reflected the wider buzz around Climate Week NYC — an event that seems to be the busiest in its 16-year history, in terms of the number of sessions and attendees. But the energy here strikes a contrast with what many see as a sagging level of engagement around climate action among many corporate and financial leaders.

Climate Week tends to provide a useful sense of what to expect at the annual UN COP summit a couple of months later. The run-up to this year’s COP29 in Baku, however, will be overshadowed by the US election, which will be held just six days earlier. Donald Trump, who would pull the US out of the Paris Agreement for a second time, is slightly behind in the race, according to our FT poll tracker, but far from out of the running. “If we don’t lead, who the hell leads?” Biden said yesterday, in a swipe at his predecessor.

In today’s newsletter, we highlight two of the most interesting items in the flurry of activity in New York. Climate scientists are aiming to concentrate minds on an alarming new set of findings, with the help of a star-studded (and evocatively named) initiative. And one of the world’s biggest investor alliances is making some progress in reducing financed emissions, Patrick reports. — Simon Mundy

sustainability

Sustainability superheroes? Branson calls in the ‘Planetary Guardians’

It might seem surprising that Marvel Comics didn’t long ago snap up the name “Planetary Guardians” for one of its lucrative superhero franchises.

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The Disney subsidiary’s failure to do so left an opening for UK billionaire Richard Branson. The Planetary Guardians initiative, set up last year with funding from the charitable foundation of Branson’s Virgin Group, was behind this week’s publication of the first “planetary health check”. The report is an attempt to quantify the impacts of human activity on the environment, and the risks of severe and irreversible damage.

“In business, if I can’t measure something, I can’t fix it,” Branson told me. “I think the same applies to the world’s problems.”

While the initiative may sound gimmicky to some readers, it highlights some important angles around environmental science and the economic responses to it.

While Branson’s foundation provided the financial resources for this initiative, it’s built on more than 15 years of research by Johan Rockström, one of the world’s most prominent climate scientists and director of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

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Rockström pioneered the concept of “planetary boundaries”, in a scientific effort to identify safe limits for human interference in “global environmental functions” such as natural ecosystems and water circulation. If those levels are exceeded for an extended period, he warns, those systems are likely to move outside the relatively stable conditions that humanity has enjoyed over the past 10,000 years.

Other scientists and experts will have their own views on precisely what level of interference should be considered “safe”. In any case, Rockström’s report this week makes for unsettling reading, showing that the world is well into the danger zone for most of the metrics covered, from atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to changes in land and water use.

“The overall diagnostic is that the patient, Planet Earth, is in critical condition,” Rockström wrote in the report, adding that six of the nine planetary boundaries have been broken.

This report, produced by Rockström’s Planetary Boundaries Science team, will be updated annually, he told me, adding that he would be leading further research around opportunities for private sector investment to play a part in addressing these problems.

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“I’ll be very honest here: the data and the science is making us really nervous,” Rockström said. “So we cannot sit around just doing science for science any more. We need to do science for change, and this is one of those efforts.”

As well as supporting the research of Rockström and his colleagues, the initiative will aim to publicise it through the 19 “guardians”, a global group of prominent environmental advocates who range from former UN climate change head Christiana Figueres to Mexican youth activist Xiye Bastida to Hiro Mizuno, former chief investment officer of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund.

Figueres told me the project was not aimed at simply calling attention to the science, but at forcing consideration of “the consequences and the decisions that need to be made”.

In particular, the project aims to focus the attention of global political and business leaders — some of whom have shown dwindling interest in environmental issues over the past two years, even as scientific research has shown ever greater grounds for alarm.

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The gap between what the private sector is doing, and what the science suggests is necessary, “should disappear” in an efficient market system, Mizuno said. “But at the moment, that’s not what’s happening.” (Simon Mundy)

carbon emissions

Pension funds and insurance groups reveal emissions cuts

While a growing number of large asset managers have bailed from their net zero commitments in recent years, big pension and insurance funds are bucking the trend to hold on to their climate ambitions.

Today members of the Net-Zero Asset Owners Alliance unveiled how much they have trimmed their greenhouse gas emissions. In 2023, the group’s financed emissions were 31 per cent lower than in 2018, according to its report.

Additionally, members have increased their investments into “climate solutions” to 6 per cent of their portfolios, reaching $555bn in the past year.

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Still, to hit global emissions targets, asset owners must work with others “to close the widening gap between our trajectory and the real economy, which still lags far behind”, Günther Thallinger, a board member at Allianz and chair of the NZAOA, told me.

The NZAOA’s 88 members hold a total of $9.5tn and include AkademikerPension, the Church Commissioners for England and Zurich Insurance. The group is a sister body to the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative, which started in December 2020 to push investment companies to achieve net zero goals. Two years after its launch, Vanguard quit the group, to make clear that it “speaks independently on matters of importance to our investors”. Vanguard’s assets under management total $9.3tn, nearly the size of all the NZAOA members combined.

Other asset managers have left Climate Action 100+, which was launched in 2017 to push companies to reduce their carbon footprints. These firms and others that departed these initiatives were facing significant pushback to climate initiatives from US Republicans and oil companies.

Still, the emissions efforts by the asset owners underscore that a huge pool of capital remains committed to fighting global warming. (Patrick Temple-West)

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Three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow, major economies signed the Global Methane Pledge, committing to reduce their emissions of the potent greenhouse gas 30 per cent by 2030. But methane emissions are continuing to climb, according to a new study using satellite monitoring by environmental data company Kayrros.

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Major DIY chain launches huge closing down sale as it shuts six branches before Christmas

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Major DIY chain launches huge closing down sale as it shuts six branches before Christmas

A MAJOR DIY chain has launched a huge closing down sale at several of its stores, which are set to close before Christmas.

Homebase is set to close six stores in December, and shoppers can now take advantage of discounts worth up to 60% at these shops.

The shops are now brandishing huge "Store Closing" signs

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The shops are now brandishing huge “Store Closing” signsCredit: Facebook
As far as discounts go, Homebase's Bromsgrove store has discounted the price of new kitchens by 60%

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As far as discounts go, Homebase’s Bromsgrove store has discounted the price of new kitchens by 60%Credit: Facebook

Stores in Sutton Coldfield, Bromsgrove, Cromer, Fareham, Newark and Rugby will also close over the busy festive period.

Shoppers visiting the affected stores can now get hefty discounts on everything from kitchens to furniture and homeware.

Shops are now brandishing huge “Store Closing. Everything Must Go” signs.

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As far as discounts go, Homebase’s Bromsgrove store has slashed the price of new kitchens by 60%.

Shoppers can also get 40% off radiators and solar lighting and 25% off furniture, tiles and wallpaper.

All six stores listed above will close before Christmas in December, though exact dates have yet to be confirmed.

Three more Homebase sites in Derry/Londonderry, Inverurie, and Omagh are also set to close in the coming months, but Homebase hasn’t confirmed when this will occur.

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All 10 stores were sold to Sainsbury’s after the company agreed to acquire them from the DIY chain in August.

Once all stores are closed, Sainsbury’s will convert the units into new supermarkets.

Britain’s retail apocalypse: why your favourite stores KEEP closing down

The conversion of these sites is anticipated to create approximately 1,000 new jobs.

The acquisition of the stores and refit programme to follow is expected to cost Sainsbury’s £130million.

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Once they are converted, the shop floor area of the stores will range from approximately 15,000 to 40,000 square feet and will add a total of around 235,000 square feet to its supermarket trading space.

Sainsbury’s plans to open the first of these new stores by next summer, marking a significant expansion for the supermarket chain.

Simon Roberts, chief executive officer of Sainsbury’s, said last month: “Sainsbury’s food business continues to go from strength to strength as we push ahead with our Next Level Sainsbury’s plan.

“We have the best combination of value and quality in the market and that’s winning us customers from all our key competitors and driving consistent growth in volume market share.

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“We want to build on this momentum, which is why we are growing our supermarket footprint.”

UP FOR SALE

The sale of these stores follows reports that Homebase’s owner is looking to sell the company

Hilco Capital, which purchased Homebase from Wesfarmers in 2018 for £1, was believed to have started a formal sale process after being approached by The Range.

Other retailers that have previously shown an interest in Homebase include B&M, the London-listed discount retailer.

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It’s understood that this sale process is still ongoing.

Homebase currently operates around 144 locations across the UK.

The DIY chain was founded by the supermarket giant Sainsbury’s and Belgian retailer GB-Inno-BM in 1979.

The first store opened in Croydon in April 1981 and was located on the Purley Way.

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The company steadily grew and, in 1989, opened its 50th store in Norwich.

By 1995, Homebase had 82 stores, and Sainsbury’s acquired 241 Texas Homecare stores, which were soon converted into the Homebase format.

Homebase then operated as a subsidiary under the Home Retail Group from October 2006 until 2016.

Australian retailer Wesfarmers and owner of the Bunnings brand purchased Homebase for £340million in February 2016.

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However, by February 2018, Wesfarmers reported losses relating to the takeover of £57million in the year to June 2017, and soon decided to implement a review of the business.

In May 2018, Hilco bought the hardware store chain for just £1.

Prior to the Hilco takeover, Homebase had 250 stores at its peak and 11,500 staff.

However, the brand soon returned to profit after it entered a CVA agreement and restructured its business.

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Homebase has closed 106 stores since it was taken over by Hilco Capital in 2018.

HISTORY OF HOMEBASE

  • 1979: Homebase was founded by the supermarket chain Sainsbury’s and Belgian retailer GB-Inno-BM
  • April 1981: The first store opened in Croydon
  • October 1981: The second store opened in Leeds
  • 1989: Homebase opened its 50th store in Norwich
  • 1995: The chain boasted 82 stores and Sainsbury’s acquired all 241 Texas Homecare stores
  • 1996-1999: All Texas Homecare stores were converted into the Homebase format
  • 2001: Sainsbury’s sells Homebase but retains a 17.3% minority stake until 2002
  • 2006: Homebase operated as a subsidiary under the Home Retail Group from October 2006 until 2016
  • February 2016: Australian retailer Wesfarmers owner of the Bunnings brand, purchased Homebase for £340million
  • February 2018: Wesfarmers reported losses relating to the takeover of £57million in the year to June 2017, and soon decided to implement a review of the business
  • May 2018: Hilco bought the hardware store chain for just £1
  • 2018-2024: Homebase has closed 106 stores since it was taken over by Hilco Capital

HOMEWARE CHAINS STRUGGLE

It has been a tricky time for home improvement chains, both large and small.

This is because shoppers have been cutting back on spending following the pandemic.

Plus, the recent turmoil in the housing market has meant that homeowners aren’t as focused on DIY projects as they once were.

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In the spring, Kingfisher, which owns B&Q and Screwfix, revealed that annual profits had slumped by more than a quarter.

The company reported a 25.1% drop in underlying pre-tax profits to £568million for the year to January 31, 2024.

Window and door specialist Everest called in administrators in April, leaving customers in the dark about their orders.

Last year, the group had previously cautioned profits would slip after a 36% drop in pre-tax profits from £1billion to £611million in the 12 months to January 2023.

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Rival Wickes also reported a 31% fall in profits to £52million on flat revenues of £1.55billion for 2023.

Windows and doors company Safestyle collapsed into administration in October last year.

The company has a manufacturing site in Wombwell, near Barnsley and 42 sales branches and depots across the country.

Flooring retailer Tapi recently struck a multimillion-pound rescue deal to save the Carpetright brand and dozens of stores in July.

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Tapi purchased 54 of the chain’s stores and two warehouses in a pre-pack administration deal that saved 300 jobs.

However, the deal did not include 200 other stores which all closed their doors.

Why are retailers closing shops?

EMPTY shops have become an eyesore on many British high streets and are often symbolic of a town centre’s decline.

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The Sun’s business editor Ashley Armstrong explains why so many retailers are shutting their doors.

In many cases, retailers are shutting stores because they are no longer the money-makers they once were because of the rise of online shopping.

Falling store sales and rising staff costs have made it even more expensive for shops to stay open. In some cases, retailers are shutting a store and reopening a new shop at the other end of a high street to reflect how a town has changed.

The problem is that when a big shop closes, footfall falls across the local high street, which puts more shops at risk of closing.

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Retail parks are increasingly popular with shoppers, who want to be able to get easy, free parking at a time when local councils have hiked parking charges in towns.

Many retailers including Next and Marks & Spencer have been shutting stores on the high street and taking bigger stores in better-performing retail parks instead.

Boss Stuart Machin recently said that when it relocated a tired store in Chesterfield to a new big store in a retail park half a mile away, its sales in the area rose by 103%.

In some cases, stores have been shut when a retailer goes bust, as in the case of Wilko, Debenhams Topshop, Dorothy Perkins and Paperchase to name a few.

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What’s increasingly common is when a chain goes bust a rival retailer or private equity firm snaps up the intellectual property rights so they can own the brand and sell it online.

They may go on to open a handful of stores if there is customer demand, but there are rarely ever as many stores or in the same places.

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Turkish Airlines to serve “world’s oldest bread” on select flights

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Turkish Airlines to serve “world’s oldest bread” on select flights

Turkish Airlines has added “The Oldest Bread” to its in-flight service menu. Served heated and in a special bag with butter and olive oil before meal service, the bread will be available for intercontinental business class passengers

Continue reading Turkish Airlines to serve “world’s oldest bread” on select flights at Business Traveller.

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Russia is weighing the costs and benefits of retaliation

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The writer is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will present his “victory plan” for ending Russia’s war against his country during a visit to the US this week. Central to the plan is likely to be the demand that the Biden administration remove limits on Ukraine’s use of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike deep into Russia. Kyiv argues that long-range strikes would enable it to destroy Russia’s logistics infrastructure, airfields, and artillery and rocket positions. 

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The debate about the wisdom of allowing Ukraine to conduct such strikes hinges not only on their military utility but on divergent views over the risks of Russian retaliation. Some argue that Ukraine’s ongoing Kursk offensive and its recent drone strikes against large Russian ammunition depots are ultimate proof that Russia’s red lines are a chimera. Others worry that, were ATACMS or British Storm Shadow missiles to rain down on Russian territory, Moscow would escalate the conflict horizontally or vertically. It could expand the geographic scope of hostilities with the west, for instance, by helping the Houthis attack maritime shipping in the Middle East, or inch closer to using a nuclear weapon in Europe.

But Russia faces its own dilemmas in weighing how and where to retaliate. Serious assistance to the Houthis would cost Moscow its relations with third parties — chiefly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — that have been important to its wartime economic survival. Co-ordination with the Gulf Arab states in Opec+ has given Russia leverage over the oil market, and the UAE has emerged as a crucial conduit for Russian efforts to evade western sanctions.

Significant weapons transfers to the Houthis would not just risk irritating Gulf leaders but also Xi Jinping: China gets most of its oil from the Middle East and its ships have already come under attack in the Red Sea, notwithstanding the Houthis’ promises of safe passage.

Vertical escalation vis-à-vis Ukraine’s backers would not come attached with the same risks of irking Russia’s non-western partners. Should the Biden administration lift its veto on Ukrainian long-range strikes, Russia may well expand its sabotage, espionage and disinformation operations in Europe.

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It may also look for additional ways to stoke fears of nuclear war. Having verbally threatened nuclear apocalypse one time too many, Moscow is now preparing an update to its official nuclear doctrine (presumably to lower the threshold for use), while occasionally hinting that it may conduct a test. But again, this type of vertical escalation is not cost-free for Moscow. It risks unnerving not just China but the many nuclear “have-nots” in the “global south” — countries Russia is courting in its crusade for a post-western international order — without actually achieving its goal of diminishing support for Ukraine.

Western states are not alone in facing dilemmas while pondering their next moves over Ukraine. Ancillary costs (and uncertain benefits) may well mitigate against Russia opting for serious horizontal or vertical escalation — especially since Vladimir Putin remains supremely confident in the prospects of Russia’s victory in Ukraine over the medium term.

This is neither to argue that horizontal escalation is off the cards, nor that a point of nuclear last resort is non-existent: should Russia perceive itself to be on the back foot in Ukraine in ways that cause it to seriously worry, factors that should at present weigh in favour of restraint could suddenly become less important.

Recognising that Putin faces constraints in contemplating options for escalation should also be no cause for trivialising the cumulative impact its actions will still have. Russia’s moves up the escalation ladder still make it the midwife of a more dangerous global nuclear environment.

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