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The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House

Former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney will campaign with Kamala Harris in Wisconsin on Thursday, as the Democratic vice-president steps up efforts to win over Republicans unwilling to vote for Donald Trump.

Liz Cheney, the daughter of George W Bush’s vice-president Dick Cheney, last month endorsed Harris’s White House campaign as she warned of the “danger” of re-electing Trump. Dick Cheney subsequently also said he would vote for Harris.

The vice-president and Cheney will appear in the Wisconsin city of Ripon, considered the birthplace of the modern Republican party, a campaign official said.

Harris will say that while she and Republican voters may not agree on every policy issue, they can trust her to uphold the constitution and the rule of law, the official said.

The campaign stop, just a month ahead of the election, marks Harris’s most explicit attempt to lure Republicans who have been disenchanted with Trump’s control of their party — and whose votes could decide the election.

Cheney’s appearance in Wisconsin comes days after Jeff Flake, a former Republican senator from Arizona, announced he was also backing Harris, saying she represented a “new generation of leadership based not on grievances of the past, but hope for the future” — a pointed allusion to Trump.

In August, several former Trump administration officials and other big-name Republicans gave primetime speeches at the Democratic National Convention, and the Harris campaign has deployed prominent Republicans to campaign for her in battleground states.

The campaign has also invested heavily in advertising campaigns directed at moderate Republicans whose votes could be decisive in a gridlocked election.

The latest Financial Times poll tracker puts Harris slightly ahead of Trump nationally but in a split race in the swing states.

“[The Harris campaign] is doing a really good job of reaching out for us and, well, welcoming us into the fold,” said Geoff Duncan, the former Republican lieutenant-governor of Georgia who has criticised Trump for trying to overturn the 2020 election. Duncan spoke at the DNC in August and has since campaigned for Harris in his home state of Georgia, a swing state.

“[Harris] has really shown a willingness to listen to the thoughts and ideas of those of us in the middle,” Duncan added.

Other high-profile Republican Trump critics — including Utah senator Mitt Romney, former president George W Bush and former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice — have stopped short of endorsing Harris. Many of Trump’s other Republican detractors, most notably former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, have now backed him.

Strategists say Harris could settle the contest with Trump if she wins a fraction of the Republican voters who backed Haley against him in their primary race this year.

A campaign group called “Haley Voters for Harris” on Wednesday announced a new “seven-figure” investment in its own advertising campaign targeting Haley primary voters.

In Pennsylvania, arguably the election’s most important swing state, more than 150,000 people, or nearly 17 per cent of Republican voters, picked Haley over Trump in April — even though she had abandoned her White House run two months earlier.

Now, some of those Haley supporters say they will vote for Harris.

Jack Merritt, a 74-year-old Republican from the Philadelphia suburbs who had previously told the FT he would spoil his ballot by voting for Haley in the general election, now says the vice-president has won him over.

“I remain a committed conservative,” Merritt said. “I don’t think she’s quite as liberal as people would like to paint her. Trump has got the potential of doing much more harm on the world stage than she would do . . . I have arrived at my least-bad choice.”

One former Republican official from a neighbouring Pennsylvania town said it was now “90 per cent certain” he would vote for Harris.

“Voting for Trump is not an option. I agree with former vice-president Cheney: he is a danger to the republic,” the former official added.

But other Haley primary voters in Pennsylvania contacted by the FT were unconvinced by Harris’s pitch, and suggested they might skip the top of the ticket altogether.

“I thought [Biden and Trump] were two bad choices,” said Marshall Lerner, a 73-year-old retiree who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and remains undecided about November. “Today, I would have to say, I don’t like either candidate. They are still two bad choices.”

There is still time to register for our flagship conference, Money Marketing Interactive London, which takes place in five days’ time.

This not-to-be missed event, in association with Fundment, will be held at Convene, 155 Bishopsgate, on Tuesday, 8 October.

The day will be packed with intriguing sessions led by industry experts and thought leaders.

Some of the subjects they will explore include the impact of the Consumer Duty twelve months on and the implications of the FCA’s new SDR proposals.

MMI London will feature practical sessions on key supplier relationships including platforms, back-office systems, and investment management options as well as run the rule over tax planning and investment strategies to help advisers provide value-added advice.

NextGen Planners will also be there to talk more on philanthropy and sustainable investing.

Our keynote speaker, broadcaster and journalist will chat to delegates about the impact of the new Labour government on financial regulation.

Timeline’s CEO Abraham Okusanya and Benchmark Capital CEO Ed Dymott will be among those on a panel discussion to help you choose the right tech stack for your business.

The event will give people the chance to connect with peers, experts and potential collaborators during our networking sessions.

The conference is not just about gaining knowledge; it’s an opportunity to foster meaningful relationships that can drive your business’ success.

There will be workshops from SimplyBiz, Albemarle Street Partners, HSBC Life, EV, Verve and a breakfast briefing by The Financial Planning Club too.

Workshop selections are now closed, but there is still opportunity to sign up on the day at the registration desk.

Reserve your 5-hour CPD accredited place today and join us.

You can register for free here.

To see the full agenda, click this link.

Good morning and welcome back to Energy Source, coming to you from New York.

More than a million households remained without power in the US south-east as of yesterday evening, after Hurricane Helene devastated the region, killing more than 180 people and making the storm the deadliest since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Down in west Texas, former president Donald Trump hosted a private fundraising event in Midland yesterday, where he made a pitch to oil donors for cash as his campaign enters its final stretch.

The world is holding its breath as it awaits Israel’s widely expected retaliation against Iran for its missile barrage on Tuesday. The FT has a breakdown on how the IDF could respond, including attacks on Iran’s missile launchers or oil infrastructure.

Today’s Energy Source breaks down what this rapid escalation in the Middle East could mean for the US oil market, just as the country prepares to cast votes in the presidential election.

Thanks for reading,

Amanda

Explore how to accelerate a secure, affordable, and sustainable energy future at our upcoming Energy Transition Summit series. Join CEOs, politicians and investors in India (8-9 October, New Delhi & online) or in London (22-24 October, London & online).

Is the US prepared for a Middle East oil shock?

The prospect of an all-out regional war in the Middle East is higher than ever this week as the world braces for Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack.

The rapid escalation woke up an oil market that had otherwise been complacent about the Middle East conflict, which has caused no major supply disruptions. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed as high as $76.03 before closing at $73.90 yesterday. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, closed 0.4 per cent higher at $70.10 a barrel.

The fear among traders is that an Israeli retaliation could target oil infrastructure in Iran, an Opec member that exports about 1.7mn barrels of oil a day. An attack could also move the region closer to a worst-case scenario for the oil market where Opec production is compromised and Tehran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for crude, sending prices spiralling into the triple digits.

Ben Hoff, global head of commodity strategy at Société Générale, said: “It’s like a game of Jenga, where the question really becomes, once you’re at the seventh or eighth block, which one is it going to be that just ends up being a little bit too much, and the whole thing collapses on itself?”

What does this mean for the US? Harold Hamm, founder of Continental Resources and a donor to Donald Trump’s election campaign, warned the US was “unusually vulnerable” to a Middle East oil shock, blaming the Joe Biden administration policies for leaving the US shale patch in “weakened condition”.

But it’s not the 1970s any more. Thanks to the shale revolution, the US is the largest oil and gas producer, with output sitting at record highs. An oil shock from the Middle East is not going to devastate the US economy in the same way as it did then.

“The US is the most prepared out of any developed [economy] . . . to handle a significant disruption in the Middle East,” said Hunter Kornfeind, an oil market analyst at Rapidan Energy Group.

That’s not to say higher crude prices from market fears or a real disruption to global supplies won’t pinch consumers. 

While the US became a net exporter of petroleum in 2020, it remains a net importer of crude oil that’s often used in refineries, with imports totalling 6.48mn b/d last year, about a quarter of which is from Opec and the Gulf, according to the Energy Information Administration. Higher global market prices for oil will drive up the price of refined products such as petrol and diesel for American consumers.

The US has a “big bridge cushion” of crude inventories to help mediate the effect of any price swings, say analysts. The country has about 383mn barrels (about 50 per cent capacity) left in its strategic petroleum reserve, which was created in the wake of the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s, in addition to 413mn barrels in commercial crude inventories. The US consumes roughly 20mn barrels of petroleum a day.

The White House began releasing oil from the SPR in 2021 ahead of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in an attempt to keep down domestic petrol prices. It released another 180mn barrels of oil from the reserve in 2022 after sanctions on Russia brought fears of supply disruptions.

Trump and his supporters, including Hamm, claim the Biden administration has left the country exposed to an oil shock, with Trump vowing to fill up the SPR “immediately” if elected in November.

Analysts brushed off the concerns. “The SPR is lower than it was pre-Ukraine. But at the same time, it still has enough to offset any kind of supply interruption at least for an immediate period,” Kornfeind said.

Absent a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, there’s also a lot of spare capacity from Opec sitting on the sidelines. Since late 2022, the oil cartel has artificially cut output, totalling about 5.7 per cent of global crude consumption in an effort to boost prices during weak global demand. In a meeting yesterday, top Opec+ ministers left their oil policy unchanged.

“The market remains bearish on fundamentals for next year and does not believe oil supplies will be at risk despite the escalation,” said Amrita Sen, founder and managing director of Energy Aspects. “Prices may fall back after the initial rally.”

Perhaps the biggest consequences for the US from higher global crude prices is at the ballot box. Escalatory action in the Middle East could drive up gasoline prices, just as Americans go to the polls next month to pick their next president.

Henning Gloystein, practice head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, said: “If there’s any major oil price spikes, that will be immediately felt at the pump, and that’s what American voters care about more than anything else in terms of daily pricing.”

A rise in petrol prices in the coming weeks was a “bad situation” for the election prospects of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, he added.

Power Points

• TotalEnergies warns it will curb UK investments and restructure North Sea operations if the government increases its windfall tax as planned

• Chinese investment abroad is surging from record levels as the country’s clean energy sector looks to set up manufacturing operations abroad in the face of US and EU tariffs.

• Opinion: Alan Beattie explains why the US can’t impose its will over global trade in electric cars.

Energy Source is written and edited by Jamie Smyth, Myles McCormick, Amanda Chu, Tom Wilson and Malcolm Moore, with support from the FT’s global team of reporters. Reach us at energy.source@ft.com and follow us on X at @FTEnergy. Catch up on past editions of the newsletter here.

THE areas where house prices are falling the most and the “affordable” locations where they’re rising have been revealed.

A typical home in the UK was worth £267,100 in August, 0.7%, or £1,970, more than a year ago, according to Zoopla.

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On a monthly basis, the value of a typical home rose by £700.

House prices are now on track to rise 2.5% higher by the end of the year, Zoopla estimates.

Property sales have increased as mortgage rates are now at their lowest level for 15 months, making it cheaper for homeowners to borrow money.

A borrower who is looking to remortgage and owns 25% of their home can now lock into a five-year deal at 4.3% down from 5.5% a year ago.

On a loan with £250,000 left to pay this would be equivalent to a £250 decrease in the amount they would need to spend on their mortgage each month.

Meanwhile, interest rates have continued to fall as lenders compete with each other to attract borrowers.

The number of buyers looking for a new home and homeowners putting their property on the market has risen as a result.

As more buyers return to the market the level of competition for each home has increased, which has moderately pushed up property prices.

The website said affordability continues to constrain house price growth, particularly in southern England.

Greater choice for home buyers is also expected to keep house price growth in check in the months ahead.

And not all homes are fresh to the market. A fifth of homes currently for sale were previously on the market at some stage in the past two years, according to Zoopla’s data.

Setting the right price is important to attract buyers, Zoopla said.

How have prices changed per region?

Manchester has seen the greatest increase in house prices of any region in England, with the value of a typical property up 2.3% in the past year.

An average home in the city is now worth £227,200.

Liverpool has also seen prices climb in the past 12 months, pushing up the value of a typical property to £160,400, which is 2% higher than a year ago.

But not all regions have seen house prices rise in the last year.

Aberdeen and Glasgow have both seen prices tumble by 1% since last August, the greatest fall of any UK region.

A typical home in Aberdeen is now worth £135,700 while in Glasgow it’s £150,200.

Cambridge also saw prices edge down by 0.1% in the past year but the value of an average home is still well above the national average.

A typical property in the area was worth £469,300 in August, £202,200 more than the national average.

Meanwhile, prices remained unchanged in Bournemouth and Leicester over the past year.

A typical home in Bournemouth is still worth £333,800 after seeing nothing added to its value in the past 12 months.

Meanwhile, an average property in Leicester is worth £226,200 after its value failed to increase in the past year.

Here are the average prices in August and their annual change, according to Zoopla:

• Belfast – £1,78,200, 5.1%
• Manchester – £227,200, 2.3%
• Liverpool – £160,400, 2%
• Glasgow – £150,200, 1.9%
• Leeds – £210,600, 1.7%
• Cardiff – £256,000, 1.6%
• Sheffield – £173,300, 1.4%
• Birmingham – £211,800, 1.3%
• Newcastle – £155,400, 1%
• Nottingham – £203,700, 0.9%
• Edinburgh – £273,400, 0.8%
• Oxford – £452,000, 0.6%
• Bristol – £340,100, 0.3%
• Southampton – £258,400, 0.2%
• Bournemouth – £333,800, 0%
• Leicester – £226,200, 0%
• Cambridge – £469,300, -0.1%
• Aberdeen – £135,700, -0.1%
• Portsmouth – £279,800, -1%

Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla said: “Lower mortgage rates are delivering a much-needed confidence boost to homeowners, many of whom have sat on the sidelines over the last two years. 

“Market activity is up across the board and expectations of lower borrowing costs will continue to bring buyers and sellers into the market.”

Who else tracks house prices?

Halifax is part of Lloyds Group, which is the UK’s biggest mortgage lender.

Its monthly house price index is based on the mortgage data it holds and has been going since 1983.

It’s one of several key barometers of the property market.

The official measure of house prices is from the Office for National Statistics, which uses data from the Land Registry where the actual sold price is recorded.

This is the most accurate of all the indices, but the figures come out three months after the homes are sold, so there’s a big time lag.

Halifax and Nationwide each publish a monthly index tracking the average prices of homes on which they provide mortgages.

While they do adjust their figures to iron out big outliers, both lenders measure average house prices based on the properties they see.

As it’s based on mortgage approvals, cash buyers are not included.

Rightmove and Zoopla also publish monthly house price data.

The former is based on asking prices from the property listings on its website.

The latter uses sold prices, mortgage valuations and data on agreed sales.

Neither takes into account the price a property actually sold for like the ONS Land Registry, which could end up being higher or lower and some might not even sell at all.

Here’s the latest data from other indices:

• Rightmove (September 2024) +0.8% monthly, +1.2% annually
• Nationwide (August 2024) +0.7% monthly, +3.2% annually
• Halifax (August 2024) +0.3% monthly, +4.3% annually
• ONS Land Registry (July 2024) +2.2% monthly, +2.2% annually

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Turkey’s inflation rate has fallen below 50 per cent for the first time in more than a year, underscoring how President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s economic turnaround programme is succeeding in slowing runaway price growth.

Consumer prices rose 49 per cent in September from the same month in 2023, below the previous month’s rate of 52 per cent and the slowest pace since July 2023, Turkey’s statistical institute said on Thursday.

Inflation is now lower than the central bank’s policy rate of 50 per cent, meaning so-called real interest rates have turned positive for the first time since 2021, according to FactSet data.

The slowdown in inflation and flip higher in real rates underscore how authorities are making progress in turning around Turkey’s $1tn economy following a series of sweeping policy U-turns that began after Erdoğan’s re-election in May 2023.

While Erdoğan had previously championed an idiosyncratic policy of holding rates low at all costs, Turkey has since imposed painful austerity measures including higher rates and taxes in a bid to control runaway prices.

Finance minister Mehmet Şimşek, who has vowed to restore “rational” economic policymaking, said Thursday’s data was evidence that “reducing inflation will not only solve the problem of the cost of living, but will also permanently increase the welfare of our citizens”.

Erdoğan’s previous policy had caused major imbalances in Turkey’s economy, with inflation having peaked above 85 per cent in 2022.

He added fuel to the overheating economy prior to the May 2023 general election with massive stimulus measures, including a month of free gas for households and increases in the minimum wage and public sector salaries.

Consumers attempted to shield their savings by purchasing goods such as appliances and cars, and moving funds into dollars and euros, which widened the current account deficit and eroded the central bank’s foreign currency reserves.

The Turkish president changed course following his re-election, conceding that a more conventional economic policy was the only way to pull the country back from the brink of a worsening crisis.

Turkey’s central bank has increased its main interest rate more than 40 percentage points since the new programme began in June last year. Şimşek has employed a range of measures, including petrol tax rises, in an attempt to reduce inflation, narrow the current account deficit and rebuild central bank foreign currency reserves.

The new measures have helped woo international investors who had fled Turkey’s markets in recent years. Turkey last week sold its biggest ever dollar-denominated bond.

The turn higher in real rates is a key achievement for Şimşek’s programme. Economic officials are betting that positive real interest rates will help ease some of the economic imbalances by heightening the allure of holding funds in Turkish savings accounts rather than utilising goods and foreign currencies as a store of value.

Despite the progress, investors and analysts say Turkish policymakers have a long way to go before the economy returns to a steadier footing. They are also concerned about how long Erdoğan will stick with the new programme, which has dented his popularity since many Turks are still not feeling the benefits of easing inflation.

Erdoğan’s political party faced its biggest-ever defeat in local elections this March, with the economy playing a key role in the poor performance. But analysts say authorities are betting that slower price rises will ease the pressure on the government, with the next round of general elections set for 2028.

“The tightening of financial conditions and monetary policy is beginning to contribute to the return to a disinflationary path,” said Istanbul-based economist Haluk Bürümcekçi.