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Contrarian opportunity or value trap?

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Contrarian opportunity or value trap?

If accolades were based on economic growth, the 21st century would belong to China.

It entered the new millennium with an economy smaller than Italy’s but, fast-forward a couple of decades, it now adds the equivalent of an economy the size of Italy’s to its growth every other year.

On a humanitarian level, China’s success story has been nothing short of remarkable, too. It has lifted almost all its population out of extreme poverty – a figure that stood at close to 50% in 1999.

The inner contrarian in me is twitching. Is this a multi-year buying opportunity?

Until recently, the equity market was rampant. In the years leading up to mid-2021, Chinese equities returned approximately two times the gains of their developed market counterparts.

The past three years have been an altogether different story, however, with Chinese equites underperforming the MSCI World index by a staggering 65%.

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The inner contrarian in me is twitching. Is this now a multi-year buying opportunity?

Putting shareholders second

Corporates and investors alike have clamoured to enjoy a slice of China’s fruitful GDP pie, eagerly setting up businesses via joint operations or accessing capital markets, where possible. With such rampant growth, local equity markets would normally benefit through increased corporate profitability and investor flows.

However, while nominal aggregate earnings have increased a stellar 14% compound annual growth rate between 2007 and 2023, earnings per share have lagged considerably, growing at a meagre 4% p.a.

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As China’s economy grew and corporates evolved into behemoths, so did their influence – a problematic development in a single-party political system

Chinese corporates have been mammoth issuers of shares, a policy move contrasting sharply with the share buyback policies of US technology giants and the de-equitisation of developed markets.

As such, as well as corporate governance, companies’ capital allocation strategies should be high on investors’ priorities when reviewing Chinese equities.

As China’s economy grew and corporates evolved into behemoths, so did their influence – a somewhat problematic development in a single-party political system. When the Chinese authorities reasserted their dominant position, investors proved flighty, with capital flows sharply reversing.

Foreign direct investment, once embraced by the authorities as an opportunity to drive liberalisation of the economy, is now increasingly treated as if it were a threat to sovereignty.

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China now finds itself in a deleveraging spiral – the demand to borrow is falling faster than the cost of borrowing

However, perhaps more importantly superseding all this, the once seemingly unstoppable growth train has hit a speed restriction. Chinese property, the preferred investment asset of the burgeoning middle classes, is experiencing a painful period of price adjustment and forced deleveraging.

The People’s Bank of China has been cutting interest rates over the past three years, contrary to almost every other central bank globally, yet growth continues to slow. Chinese banks recently marked their first credit contraction in almost 20 years, despite bond yields close to secular lows, indicating cheap credit is not enough to stimulate the economy.

China now finds itself in a deleveraging spiral – the demand to borrow is falling faster than the cost of borrowing.

One antidote to monetary unresponsiveness would be a large fiscal impulse from the government to stimulate aggregate demand, yet no such splurge appears close, with China’s fiscal expenditure only marginally growing year-on-year.

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When considering the correct multiple to apply to Chinese earnings, investors should be aware  economic conditions have not yet fully stabilised

This dynamic is now beginning to reveal itself in many areas of US and European markets, too. And not just those solely sensitive to China’s industrial cycle. The spillover of a slowdown is also being felt in luxury goods multinationals, such as Burberry and Richemont, which have reported falling sales within China of 21% and 23% respectively. Western markets are not immune to China’s growth glitches.

Value closer to home

In May this year, after a bounce in performance, we took the opportunity to sell our only dedicated China A-shares focused fund. Chinese equities now trade at a similar multiple to the equally unloved UK market, yet UK corporates are increasingly recognising the need to unlock value in their companies through capital allocation polices, such as share buybacks.

Furthermore, contrasting to the Chinese slowdown, UK economic growth estimates are being revised higher and are expected to eclipse the pace of expansion in the US economy – a meaningful turnaround given the stagnant economy narrative.

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For a contrarian craving, we contest the need to look far afield

In other developments, although perhaps not quite as stable as the Chinese Communist Party, the UK Labour Party now has at least five, possibly 10, years in power, given the size of its majority, putting the country on a more even-keeled political footing for the first time in a decade.

When considering the correct multiple to apply to Chinese earnings, investors should be aware that economic conditions have not yet fully stabilised.

Aggregate earnings remain vulnerable to further contraction, there’s little sign of corporates slowing issuance or turning to buybacks to recognise equity value and international investors are devoid of confidence.

Such a dynamic could mean both the price and earnings remain questionable. For a contrarian craving, we contest the need to look far afield.

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Adam Norris is investment manager at Columbia Threadneedle Multi Manager

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Pensioner cost of living payments worth up to £210 landing on doormats NOW – will you get one?

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Pensioner cost of living payments worth up to £210 landing on doormats NOW - will you get one?

HUNDREDS of pensioners are set to receive a cost of living payment voucher up to £120 on their doorstep.

For those who need a little bit of help this Christmas, the Household Support Fund offers some assistance to low income households.

The Household Support Fund is worth £421million and is set to be shared across the UK

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The Household Support Fund is worth £421million and is set to be shared across the UKCredit: Getty

The Household Support Fund is worth £421million and aims to help with gas, electricity, and food during the winter months.

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It’ll be split across local authorities that will individually decide who is eligible.

All households issued the support will be offered the vouchers automatically so there’s no need to reach out to the council.

Wakefield Council has set aside some money for pensioners receiving a council tax reduction but not pension credit.

They have recently released the conditions of their eligibility scheme.

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To qualify for the voucher from this council you must live in Wakefiel,d be over the age of 16 and not living with family or friends, be responsible for the rent, receive a low income, and have no access to other public funds.

How much will I get?

For pensioners who still receive the Winter Fuel Allowance you should receive £80 worth of supermarket voucher.

This will be issued between November 6 and November 15.

If you are pensioner who no longer gets the Winter Fuel Allowance you could receive a supermarket voucher of £130.

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The voucher should also arrive between November 6 and November 15.

For other households in receipt of Council Tax Support there should be £80 heading your way.

This will get to you between December 2 and December 11.

The vouchers should arrive within seven days with a set of instruction of how to redeem it.

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What will the fund cover?

The aim of the fund is to support with rising living costs, especially for those who don’t receive other forms of support.

It’ll cover the costs of food, housekeeping and other essential bills like gas and electricity.

Items like clothing can be covered, including school uniforms, and beds and bedding.

It can’t be spent on non-urgent items, cash payments, mortgage costs, or rent.

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What if I don’t live in Wakefield?

The Household Support Fund will be accessible all around the country.

The £421million fund budget will be spread across each council but each authority will decide its own eligibility.

Not all councils have published what they plan to do with the Household Support Fund budget yet.

If you’re keen to find out what support is available to you, you can contact your local council and ask if there is any help on offer.

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For those unsure which council they should contact, you can find your council area by using the Government’s council locator tool via gov.uk.

The Sun recently shared a guide and interactive map to help you find out what you may be able to claim.

Other help on offer

You might be able to get some support from you energy firm if you haven’t receive a Household Support Fund voucher.

For example, British Gas is handing out up to £1,700 worth of grants to UK households.

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This is through the company’s Individual and Families Fund and is accessible to people living in England, Scotland, and Wales – even if you’re not a British Gas customer.

To be eligible to get this support you must have been given help from a money advice agency in the last six months and .

You’ll also need to have not received a grant from The British Gas Energy in the last six months.

Other energy companies have their own support network for customers.

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These include OVO, Boost, E.On, E.On Next, EDF, Scottish Power, Octopus, Shell Energy, SSE and Utilita.

How has the Household Support Fund evolved?

The Household Support Fund was first launched in October 2021 to help Brits pay their way through winter amid the cost of living crisis.

Councils up and down the country got a slice of the £421million funding available to dish out to Brits in need.

It was then extended in the 2022 Spring Budget and for a second time in October 2022 to help those on the lowest incomes with the rising cost of living.

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The DWP then confirmed a third extension of the scheme through to March 31, 2024.

Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt extended the HSF for the fourth time while delivering his Spring Budget on March 6, 2024.

In September 2024, the Government announced a fifth extension.

The Household Support Fund will be accessible all around the country

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The Household Support Fund will be accessible all around the countryCredit: Getty

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Entrepreneur James Ashford buys stake in NextGen Planners to propel growth

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Entrepreneur James Ashford buys stake in NextGen Planners to propel growth

NextGen Planners has announced that entrepreneur, author and speaker James Ashford has acquired an equity stake in the organisation.

This partnership will accelerate NextGen Planners’ mission to provide its community of financial professionals with enhanced tools and strategies for personal and business growth.

Ashford, known for founding GoProposal – a pricing software for accountants acquired by Sage in an eight-figure deal – brings significant expertise in business development, client engagement and profitable growth strategies.

He has experience in transforming the accounting industry, as well as being an advocate for the benefits of financial planning through his own personal story.

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He will provide invaluable insights as NextGen Planners expands its offerings to financial planning professionals worldwide.

NextGen Planners chief executive Adam Carolan said: “James Ashford’s involvement marks a significant milestone for us, enabling us to reach new heights in supporting our members’ growth.

“James’s background in scaling companies and enhancing client value will empower our community with practical strategies for driving success in their businesses.”

This strategic partnership will provide NextGen Planners members access to high-impact growth resources, leveraging Ashford’s innovative methodologies for efficient pricing, business growth and client service enhancement.

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High street blow as ‘class’ town jewellers to shut after 50 years leaving shoppers complaining there’s nothing left

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High street blow as 'class' town jewellers to shut after 50 years leaving shoppers complaining there's nothing left

A HIGH-STREET favourite is being forced to shut for good after 50 years, leaving customers feeling concerned for their town centre.

Steffans Jewellers, Northampton, has been forced to close after being a ‘class’ town centre jewellers for 48 years.

After 48 years Steffans Jewellers, Northampton, has been forced to close

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After 48 years Steffans Jewellers, Northampton, has been forced to closeCredit: Joseph Ashmenall/BBC
The much-loved store will be closing down on November 9

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The much-loved store will be closing down on November 9Credit: Joseph Ashmenall/BBC

The store on Abington Square will be saying its final goodbyes on November 9, with owner Steffan Suter gutted to see it go.

He said: “I was hoping to make it 50 years in Northampton but the town’s retail environment isn’t as good as it used to be.”

Steffan founded the jewellers in 1974 at 24-years-old was able to expand into the shop next door after 18 months.

When Steffan’s son, Wes Suter, was just nine he also began working in his fathers shop and is also sad to see it go.

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The family said they tried their best to support Northampton but their ideas were turned down when suggesting ways to make the town centre more appealing to visitors.

Loyal customers of the jewellers have flocked to Facebook to voice their concerns over another high-street store being forced to close.

One wrote: “Another good retail outlet leaves our town. Revamping the market square will never attract shoppers to the centre, the Council needs to find a way to attract retailers back into Northampton.”

Another added: “Sad another class shop closings for good. Yet another bit of old Northampton is going.”

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A third user said: “I went into Northampton last week for the first time in years. It’s awful – people sleeping in doorways, all banks and building societies in Abington St apart from Bonmarche.

“And the ‘new’ market square is in my opinion a total waste of the millions it cost! The money would have been better spent on accommodation for those sleeping in doorways!”

Northampton town centre Business Improvement District Mark Mullen backed the town centre revamp.

He said: “There is huge positivity around the new Market Square and with work due to complete soon on Abington Street and Fish Street, plus the arrival of Stack, the beginnings of a bright new era for Northampton town centre are starting to emerge”.

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Unfortunately, Steffans Jewellers isn’t the first retailers to close in Northampton, with many other shops struggling with the reduction in footfall in town centres.

Fashion giant Next is closing after arriving in 2015, as well as a huge branch of the DIY retailer Homebase.

TGI Friday’s declared it would be shutting in Northampton and filed bankruptcy earlier this month.

It’s now closing 35 location in the UK with more than 1,000 staff losing their jobs.

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Another well loved chain that has closed its doors for the last time is The Body Shop.

The Northampton branch started out in Peacock Way in 1981 and has been a key part of the high-street’s history.

A spokesperson from West Northamptonshire Council said they are saddened to hear about the closure of Steffans and acknowledge the significant role it has played in Northampton’s history.

They added: “As a council, we are committed to creating a vibrant environment where businesses can grow and succeed.

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“Supporting our small business community is a key priority for the council.”

Thankfully, The Suter family has decided to set up shop 20 miles down the road in Market Harborough.

They are planning on opening this store as father and son after after Steffans Jewellers closes.

The Sun has reached out for Northampton Council for a comment.

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Why are retailers closing shops?

EMPTY shops have become an eyesore on many British high streets and are often symbolic of a town centre’s decline.

The Sun’s business editor Ashley Armstrong explains why so many retailers are shutting their doors.

In many cases, retailers are shutting stores because they are no longer the money-makers they once were because of the rise of online shopping.

Falling store sales and rising staff costs have made it even more expensive for shops to stay open. In some cases, retailers are shutting a store and reopening a new shop at the other end of a high street to reflect how a town has changed.

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The problem is that when a big shop closes, footfall falls across the local high street, which puts more shops at risk of closing.

Retail parks are increasingly popular with shoppers, who want to be able to get easy, free parking at a time when local councils have hiked parking charges in towns.

Many retailers including Next and Marks & Spencer have been shutting stores on the high street and taking bigger stores in better-performing retail parks instead.

Boss Stuart Machin recently said that when it relocated a tired store in Chesterfield to a new big store in a retail park half a mile away, its sales in the area rose by 103 per cent.

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In some cases, stores have been shut when a retailer goes bust, as in the case of Wilko, Debenhams Topshop, Dorothy Perkins and Paperchase to name a few.

What’s increasingly common is when a chain goes bust a rival retailer or private equity firm snaps up the intellectual property rights so they can own the brand and sell it online.

They may go on to open a handful of stores if there is customer demand, but there are rarely ever as many stores or in the same places.

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Standard Life completes £250m pension buy-ins

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Standard Life completes £250m pension buy-ins

Standard Life has completed £250m pension buy-ins with the Halma Group Pension Plan and the Apollo Pension and Life Assurance Plan.

The bulk purchase annuity transactions, finalised in September, secure benefits for 2,200 members.

The trustees, sponsors and their advisers collaborated closely with Standard Life to meet both plans’ de-risking objectives and secure the buy-ins, significantly reducing risk exposure for the plans and their members.

LCP acted as the lead transaction adviser to the trustee, with investment advice from Mercer and legal advice from Squires Patton Boggs.

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Standard Life BPA transaction manager, Joe Haswell, said: “By collaborating closely with the Trustees, sponsors and their respective advisers, we are pleased to provide a secure home for the benefits for over 2,000 members.

“The plans came to market with clear objectives and well-prepared data and benefits, which laid the groundwork for an effective outcome.

“The BPA market continues to be busy, and as the end of the year fast approaches, solid preparation like this remains key to the efficient production of quotes in a competitive market.”

LCP partner David Fink added: “By running the two buy-in processes together, this helped the Trustees secure attractive pricing for both plans quickly and efficiently in the busy market.

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“The increased scale of the combined transaction also meant the plans were able to optimise the secondary market sale for the plans’ illiquid assets.”

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Aldi launches huge toy event TODAY – prices start from under £3 and they make ideal Christmas presents

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Aldi launches huge toy event TODAY - prices start from under £3 and they make ideal Christmas presents

ALDI has rolled out a huge toy event TODAY with prices starting from as little as £2.49.

Shoppers and parents will be racing down to their local store to start stocking up for Christmas with these incredible deals.

Children's Onesie - £7.99

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Children’s Onesie – £7.99
Paw Patrol Fire Station - £59.99

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Paw Patrol Fire Station – £59.99Credit: ALDI
Bitzee Digital Pet - £24.99

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Bitzee Digital Pet – £24.99Credit: Aldi

The supermarket giant launched everything from wooden kitchen sets, fire and vet stations, to bubble machines, books, and cuddly toys.

For little ones who are obsessed with Paw Patrol there’s a fire station set, complete with the beloved Marshall character.

Meanwhile, for kids who are into Barbie, there’s a vet station which includes a chair, clipboard, stencils, paper sheets, animal charts, colouring pencils, shower head, comb, hair dryer, shampoo, syringe, scissors, otoscope, stethoscope, bandage, bowl, pet food, medicine and plush dog.

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For Pokemon fans, there’s a range of different merch, from plush cuddly toys to trading cards from £12.99.

There are also plenty of interactive games for learning, such as Crazy Anatomy, Volcanoes and Eruptions, and Forensic Detective Case, all under £20.

Aldi are offering several small, cheaper items which are fantastic for grabbing on the go.

Reusable sticker books, storybooks, and Tattle Tales easily fit into children’s’ backpacks, and could make for great entertainment during car journeys.

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And, if you’re looking to upgrade your child’s rucksack this Christmas, there are adorable character plush ones in the range.

Little ones can chose from Chase, Sonic or Tails, all for £12.99.

Crafting presents are also part of the Aldi toy event, with Colourmania sets available for just £3.99.

Christmas has landed in Aldi – with £3.49 decorations and ‘paint your own’ wooden toys that are even cheaper than Lidl’s

And, youngsters may love playing with Kevin the Carrot Orchard Game for the same price.

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Disney fans will be pleased to hear there are princess dolls, soft toys, books, and even PJs in the range.

Aldi are offering a selection of soft toys for kids who still like to take a cuddly to bed with them.

They can select from Reversible Christmas Squishies, Super Mario, Paddington, Peppa Pig, Disney Stick Flopsies and more.

Also for cozying up at bedtime, children’s onesies are only £7.99 and come in choices of Lion King, Rapunzel or Disney Princesses.

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ALDI TOY EVENT – FULL LIST

Here’s a full list of what’s available in the Aldi toy launch

Wooden Bluey Kitchen – £59.99

Paw Patrol Fire Station – £59.99

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Barbie Vet Station – £59.99

Pokemon plush – £12.99

Pokemon Bandoller set – £16.99

Pokemon Trading cards – £12.99

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Bitzee Digital Pet – £24.99

Fingerlings Sweet Tweet Bird – £7.99

Crazy Anatomy/Volcanoes & Eruptions/ Forensic Detective Case – £12.99 each

Reusable Sticker Book – £2.99

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Hardback Storybook – £2.49

Tattle Tales – £3.99

Reversible Christmas Squishies – £4.99

Colourmania – £3.99

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Kevin the Carrot Orchard Game – £3.99

LEGO Disney – £15.99

Disney Stick Flopsies – £9.99

Disney Princess Doll – £14.99

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Disney Colour Reveal – £5.99

Disney Storytime Stacker – £14.99

Children’s Onesie – £7.99

Disney Miles/Spidey 2-in-1 Vehicle – £12.99

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Spidey Talking Soft Toy – £14.99

Disney Storybook – £2.49

Bubble Machine – £6.99

Monster Jam Marvel Mystery Mudders – £4.99

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Character Plush Backpack – £12.99

Paddington or Peppa Soft Toy – £16.99

Super Mario Soft Toy – £8.99

Character Plush Backpack - £12.99

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Character Plush Backpack – £12.99Credit: Aldi
Spidey Talking Soft Toy - £14.99

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Spidey Talking Soft Toy – £14.99Credit: Aldi

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Seven new firms achieve Chartered status

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Seven new firms achieve Chartered status

The Chartered Insurance Institute (CII) has announced that seven insurance and financial planning firms have achieved Chartered status over September and October.

Firms that gained Chartered status are: Augustine Limited; Avoca Wealth Management Ltd; Better Financial Planning; Park Insurance Ltd; Sedulo Wealth Management; SGM Financial Management Ltd; and Suttons Independent Financial Advisors Ltd.

Chartered status is a symbol of technical competence and signifies a public commitment to professional standards.

President of the CII, Ian Callaghan, said: “We are delighted to welcome these seven firms into our Chartered community.

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“In achieving corporate Chartered status, they have each made a public declaration to professional standards, and are committed to upholding the Chartered Ethos of nurturing knowledge, client centricity and serving society.

“Corporate Chartered status is a key component in building public trust and a true mark of professionalism.

We look forward to working alongside these firms to deliver good customer outcomes and best practice.”

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