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Could These Stocks Be in Trouble If Trump Wins in November?
Everyone knows that elections always have winners and losers. However, the list isn’t limited only to political candidates and their supporters. Stocks can be affected by election results, too.
UBS recently evaluated the potential impact of former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs. The investment bank says it expects that U.S. stocks will fall “by around 10%” if Trump is elected and implements his steep across-the-board tariffs.
But some industries could be hit harder than others. Could these three stocks be in trouble if Trump wins in November?
Retail was the first sector identified by UBS as potentially experiencing the biggest effect from Trump’s proposed tariffs. Many retailers import a high percentage of the products they sell, and tariffs are basically a sales tax on these products.
Retailers have two options, neither of which is good. They can absorb the higher costs. Or they can pass the higher costs along to their customers, which could cause the customers to reduce their spending.
Target (NYSE: TGT) could especially feel the sting of Trump’s tariffs. The company ranks as one of the largest U.S. retailers. A large portion of the products it sells are imported, and China is its biggest source of merchandise. That’s problematic because Trump has singled out the country for high tariffs of at least 60%.
What might Target do if Trump wins and implements his tariffs? The company stated in its latest 10-K regulatory filing that additional tariffs could cause it to raise prices and/or look for alternative vendors. It added, “Any of these actions could adversely affect our reputation and results of operations.”
Perhaps the greatest concern for Target in a higher-tariff environment is that its customers could decide to shop elsewhere. Some of its competitors, notably including Walmart, already often offer lower prices than Target.
Auto manufacturing was the second industry singled out by UBS as being especially jeopardized by Trump’s proposed tariffs. Carmakers with operations in Mexico could be hurt more than others because the former president has threatened to impose a 2,000% tariff on vehicles made in the country.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) is one of the Big Three U.S. automakers. Roughly 12% of the company’s long-lived assets (notably including plants and equipment) are in Mexico, the only country that represents more than 10% other than the U.S. The percentage of those long-lived assets in Mexico has increased in recent years.
Could GM shift production to the U.S. to minimize the harm of the tariffs? Yes, but that’s easier said than done. The company would have to spend a lot of money to build new factories in the U.S. This process would also take time.
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UK based foreign exchange brand Travelex has announced that the company has undertaken a major expansion in the UAE, with the launch of 13 new stores across Abu Dhabi and Dubai airports.
At Zayed International Airport, Travelex is doubling its store footprint from seven to 14 stores, including six new on-the-move kiosk (OTM) locations at arrivals baggage, airside departures and pre-immigration, and one new traditional landside store. The new landside store will offer both a cash management service that will enable the airport’s businesses to process cash, as well as traditional consumer cash services, including access to 62 currencies.
Travelex initially entered Zayed International Airport in late 2023 with seven stores and eight ATMs. The new stores reflect the growing passenger demand and customer requirements of the UAE’s newest airport. As a dominant force in the capital’s aviation sector, Zayed International Airport rapidly affirmed itself as a key hub for air travel, solidifying its position as a vital player in the global travel landscape.
At Dubai International (DXB), Travelex is in the process of launching six new stores across all three terminals, including new traditional stores and stores upgraded from OTMS. Two ATMS dispensing AED were also installed at Terminal 3 Arrivals earlier this year. DXB has also seen a considerable post-pandemic growth in pax numbers, reinforcing its status as a leading hub for international travel.
The 13 new stores across Abu Dhabi and Dubai means Travelex will be operating 60 locations across the country. The latest IATA figures show that Middle Eastern airlines saw a 9.6% year-on-year increase in demand for June 2024, while capacity increased 9.4% year-on-year.
Batu Dölay, Managing Director, Travelex Middle East and Türkiye said:
“We’re delighted to be expanding our presence at two of the most exciting and dynamic airports in the world. This investment reflects the growing global reach and passenger numbers of our UAE airport partners, and our commitment to providing even greater access to international travel money than ever before.”
About Travelex
Founded in 1976 Travelex has grown to become one of the market leading specialist providers of foreign exchange products, solutions, and services, operating across the entire value chain of the foreign exchange industry in more than 20 countries. We have developed a growing network of ATMs and stores in some of the world’s top international airports, major transport hubs, premium shopping malls and city centres.
Travelex has built a growing online and mobile foreign exchange platform, and we also process and deliver foreign currency orders for major banks, travel agencies, supermarkets and hotels worldwide. In addition, we source and distribute sizeable quantities of foreign currency banknotes for customers on a wholesale basis – including central banks and international financial institutions. We also offer a range of remittance and international money transfer products around the world.
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