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Does Stanley Druckenmiller Know Something Wall Street Doesn’t? The Billionaire Investor Is Making a Big Bet Against the Federal Reserve.
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller might be the best to ever do it, at least from a pure returns perspective. His firm, Duquesne Capital Management, which closed in 2010, generated average annual returns of 30% for three decades. That’s better than Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway.
Although Duquesne Capital is no more, Druckenmiller still invests through the Duquesne Family Office, and is not afraid to go against the grain. The George Soros protege is now making a bet that goes against the broader view of the market and the Federal Reserve, according to reported remarks of people who heard him speak at a conference in early October. Does he know something Wall Street doesn’t?
Betting on a bond bust
The majority of the market and the Federal Reserve believe inflation will continue to slow and the Fed will keep lowering interest rates through 2025. The CME Group‘s FedWatch tool, which tracks the likelihood of interest rate changes by looking at one-month futures prices, indicates that the majority of traders (as of Oct. 15) expect the Fed to lower interest rates by an additional 50 basis points this year and get its benchmark rate down to a target range of 3.25% to 3.50% by the end of 2025. Keep in mind that these future projections of interest rates are constantly changing.
The Fed’s “dot plot” also currently charts a similar path. The dot plot shows how each member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) thinks interest rates will trend and then compiles a consensus. The dot plot is updated every three months. The Fed believes that with inflation trending lower, it now needs to worry about the labor market, which has seen unemployment trending higher until the last two months. The Fed is trying to engineer a “soft landing” for the economy where inflation falls and gets back to the Fed’s preferred 2% target without previous interest rate hikes tipping the economy into recession.
Druckenmiller is taking the other side of this bet, reportedly recently unveiling at a conference that he is shorting U.S. Treasury bonds. Bets against U.S. government bonds now account for 15% to 20% of Druckenmiller’s portfolio, according to reports of what people at the conference said.
A bet against Treasury bills or bonds is effectively a bet against the current view that interest rates will fall. Bonds have an inverse relationship to bond yields, so if bonds fall, yields rise. The federal funds rate influences bond yields, although most yields do not move solely based on the federal funds rate. Druckenmiller also reportedly said inflation could surge to levels seen in the 1970s. If inflation surges, the Fed will not be able to drop interest rates as much as the market thinks or even at all because the economy will be too hot to stimulate with further cuts.
We don’t know the exact bet
We don’t know the exact bet Druckenmiller is making. For instance, we don’t know the duration of bonds that Druckenmiller is shorting. Being short of the two-year Treasury bill is different from being short of the 30-year. Druckenmiller also reportedly said he is unsure how long the trade will take to unfold. It could take six months or six years, he said. Additionally, Druckenmiller is worried about “bipartisan fiscal recklessness.”
For all we know, Druckenmiller’s bet could have more to do with government spending and the national debt than anything else. If debt levels get too high and the market starts to worry about the government’s ability to pay its debt or interest payments, investors would demand higher interest rates for the added risk, which would tank bond prices.
Still, given his comments on inflation, Druckenmiller does seem to be playing contrarian to the Fed and the general market. While retail investors should listen to Druckenmiller and try to get into his mindset, it’s not a good idea to completely shift your strategy when the exact trade is not known. The motive of institutional investors is not always entirely clear. But thinking about and being open to opposing views — and then doing your own due diligence — is what makes a good investor.
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Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool recommends CME Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Does Stanley Druckenmiller Know Something Wall Street Doesn’t? The Billionaire Investor Is Making a Big Bet Against the Federal Reserve. was originally published by The Motley Fool
Sales of existing homes fell in September as house hunters remained on the fence about buying a home despite mortgage rates easing during the month.
Existing home sales slipped 1.0% from August’s tally to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. That marked the lowest rate since October 2010. Economists polled by Bloomberg expected a pace of 3.88 million in September.
On a yearly basis, sales of previously owned homes were 3.5% lower in September. The median home price rose 3.0% from last September to $404,500, marking the 15th consecutive month of annual price increases.
“Home sales have been essentially stuck at around a 4 million-unit pace for the past 12 months,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a press release.
There have been significant challenges that have weighed on sales activity, including a lack of inventory, escalating prices, and elevated mortgage rates. Last month, however, those factors turned around.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point in September. While the central bank doesn’t set mortgage rates, its actions influence their direction of movement.
Mortgage rates hit the lowest level since February 2023 ahead of the Fed decision to ease, while listing inventory picked up.
But overall, that hasn’t been enough to entice buyers.
“Some consumers are hesitating about moving forward with a major expenditure like purchasing a home before the upcoming election,” Yun said.
Tesla (TSLA) reported mixed third quarter results after the bell on Wednesday, but the stock jumped in after-hours trading as investors cheered the earnings beat, higher gross margins, and news that Tesla’s cheaper EV is on track for production next year.
For the quarter, Tesla reported revenue of $25.18 billion vs. $25.4 billion per Bloomberg consensus, higher than the $25.05 billion it reported in Q2 and also topping the $23.40 billion Tesla reported a year ago. Tesla posted adjusted EPS of $0.72 vs $0.60 expected, on adjusted net income of $2.5 billion and free cash flow of $2.9 billion.
The closely watched gross margin figure came in at 19.8%, much higher than the 16.8% expected.
Tesla shares were up nearly 8% in after hours trade.
“We delivered strong results in Q3 with growth in vehicle deliveries both sequentially and year-on-year, resulting in record third-quarter volumes,” the company said in its earnings deck. “Preparations remain underway for our offering of new vehicles — including more affordable models — which we will begin launching in the first half of 2025.”
Earlier this month, Tesla (TSLA) announced third quarter deliveries that slightly missed expectations, sending the stock lower.
Tesla said it delivered 462,890 vehicles in Q3, up 6.4% quarter over quarter, to mark the first quarter of delivery growth this year. The numbers also came in ahead of the 435,059 EVs the company delivered in the year-ago period. But Wall Street had expected Tesla to deliver closer to 463,897, according to Bloomberg.
“Refreshed Model 3 ramp continued successfully in Q3 with higher total production and lower cost of goods sold quarter-over-quarter. Cybertruck production increased sequentially and achieved a positive gross margin for the first time,” Tesla said in its report.
Tesla said it expects vehicle deliveries to achieve “slight growth” in 2024.
Ahead of Tesla’s Q3 disclosure, shares were down approximately 11% since Tesla revealed its robotaxi, dubbed the Cybercab, at its showy “We, Robot” event from the Warner Bros. studio lot in Burbank, Calif., on Oct. 10.
The debut and release of a cheaper EV is what many analysts and industry watchers believe will spur the next leg higher of EV sales, as even CEO Elon Musk has said before. During its Q2 report, Tesla and Musk said the company remains on track for the production of new vehicles, likely including a cheaper EV, in the first half of next year.
Investors and analysts were left wanting more details from Tesla’s “We, Robot” event on the Cybercab itself and detailed testing plans, along with questions about the development of Tesla’s sub-$30,000 EV, dubbed the Model 2.
Transak disclosed a data breach affecting over 92,000 users after a phishing attack compromised an employee’s laptop.
CryptoCurrency
The Dow plummets more than 600 points and is on track for its worst day in more than a month
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major indexes suffered a steep decline Wednesday afternoon as the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note continued its upward climb, reaching 4.23%—a level not seen since July.
In the afternoon, the Dow dropped 631 points, or 1.4%, heading for its worst day in over a month. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 declined by 2.2% and 1.4%, respectively. However, there was some relief for investors as oil prices eased, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures trading around $70.65 per barrel.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, released in the afternoon, reported that economic activity remained largely unchanged across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts, with the Southeast significantly impacted by a harsh storm season.
On Wednesday, all eyes are on Tesla (TSLA) as the company prepares to release its latest earnings report. Analysts expect earnings per share to be 60 cents, down from 66 cents a year ago but an improvement from 52 cents in the previous quarter, according to FactSet estimates. Revenue is projected to hit $25.4 billion, compared to $23.3 billion in the third quarter of 2023 and $25.5 billion in the preceding quarter.
Apart from Tesla, investors are closely monitoring earnings reports from other major corporations, including AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), and Coca-Cola (KO).
McDonald’s stock plunges over 5%
McDonald’s (MCD) shares took a sharp hit, falling over 5% after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) linked the chain’s Quarter Pounder burgers to an E. coli outbreak. The outbreak has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death, driving a significant decline in McDonald’s stock during the afternoon trading session.
As of now, 49 cases have been reported across 10 states between Sept. 27 and Oct. 11, with a majority of illnesses occurring in Colorado, Nebraska, Utah, and Wyoming. The CDC noted that most of those affected had eaten a Quarter Pounder. Investigators are working swiftly to identify the contaminated ingredient.
Spirit Airlines stock soars 30%
After a failed attempt at merging with JetBlue (JBLU-0.80%), ultra-low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines (SAVE+28.01%) is reportedly turning back to a familiar partner. The Wall Street Journal (NWSA-0.34%), citing people familiar with the matter, reports that Spirit and Frontier Airlines (ULCC+3.05%) are in early talks over a potential merger. The news sent Spirit’s stock soaring nearly 30% on Wednesday.
–Francisco Velasquez and Rocio Fabbro contributed to the article
The semi-autonomous region of Tanzania is taking advantage of a sandbox regulatory framework adopted in July.
Bitcoin’s correction ignited selling in altcoins, which are slipping below critical support levels.
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