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Financial stocks are still being woefully underappreciated by investors, Morgan Stanley says
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Positioning in financial stocks is light relative to other sectors, Morgan Stanley says.
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It sees the group as underappreciated, citing its exposure to economic strength.
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Investors have been sticking to defensive and quality stocks despite strong data.
Investors are lingering in defensive trades that don’t take advantage of the economy’s strength, Morgan Stanley said, highlighting opportunities in underinvested sectors.
The firm — which just last week upgraded cyclical stocks to “overweight” relative to defensives — described the financials group as particularly attractive.
Morgan Stanley said net exposure to financials was in the bottom 15th percentile of a historical data series that goes back to 2010. And as the chart below shows, it’s the most lightly owned of any sector.
But Mike Wilson, the bank’s chief investment officer and chief US equity strategist, sees a combination of headwinds that could lift financial stocks.
“In our view, this creates opportunity in [the financial] sector that we upgraded to overweight last week given: rebounding capital markets activity, a better loan growth environment in 2025, an acceleration in buybacks post Basel Endgame re-proposal, and attractive relative valuation,” he wrote.
Bank stocks also have had more attractive valuations since de-risking last month, after large-cap dealers signaled caution on their operating environment. Morgan Stanley noted that this weakness lowered earnings-season expectations for investors, making it easier for major lenders to outperform forecasts.
JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have jumped since publishing better-than-expected earnings reports last week: They’re up by 3.8% and 8.8% since Friday’s open.
Despite this, Wilson found, the market’s appetite for financials hasn’t materialized. This isn’t limited to bank stocks — investors are passing up on other cyclical sectors, concentrating exposure in defensive and quality names.
Utilities, healthcare, and real estate — which are defensive plays — are among the four sectors with high net exposure.
Wilson argued that this shows that investors are still positioning themselves for a soft-growth scenario, which seems less likely in light of recent macroeconomic trends.
Though Morgan Stanley moved to neutral on cyclicals versus defensives late last month, it upgraded cyclicals to overweight last week after September’s jobs report surged past Wall Street forecasts.
“As several key macro data points have come in better than expected (namely the jobs report and the ISM Services Index) following the Fed’s 50bp rate cut, cyclicals have begun to show relative strength,” Wilson said.
At the same time, rates-market yields are moving higher, indicating that growth concerns are falling.
The note said cyclicals such as industrials, financials, and energy move up when yields rise, whereas defensive stocks are negatively correlated with higher rates.
Read the original article on Business Insider
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Thailand’s oldest bank announces stablecoin remittance services
The Siam Commercial Bank Public Company, founded in 1907, was the first bank established in the South Pacific country.
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Price analysis 10/16: BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, TON, ADA, AVAX, SHIB
Bitcoin bulls are keen to hit $70,000, but a selloff at this level could trigger a sharp downside in BTC and altcoins.
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Trump Media stock plunges after weekslong rally
After a weekslong rally that saw shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) roughly triple in value, the stock took an 8% nosedive Tuesday afternoon.
Shares of the company behind former President Donald Trump’s right-wing social media platform Truth Social fell to $26.60 apiece after having been up roughly 10% that morning. Tuesday’s volatility led to the Nasdaq briefly halting trading.
The company’s stock has fluctuated wildly in value in the nearly seven months since it went public under the ticker DJT. Late last month, shares dropped as low as $12.15 each. Since Oct. 1, however, Trump Media shares are up 70%.
This see-sawing comes just weeks before the presidential election, which will see Trump face off against Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris at the ballot box.
Trump is a majority shareholder of Trump Media, holding roughly 57% of the company’s stock — and he has said he has no plans to let go of his holdings. The stock’s recent rally has added some $2 billion to Trump’s net worth.
Trump Media has been widely considered a “meme stock” or “affinity stock,” with shares trading largely on sentiment about the former president by retail and individual investors, regardless of the company’s actual operating results or prospects.
“It’s purchasing his brand,” John Rekenthaler, vice president of research at Morningstar (MORN), previously told Quartz. He warned that the company’s stock could “go to zero” or close to it if Trump loses the coming election.
Trump Media has said in regulatory filings that its “success depends in part on the popularity of its brand and the reputation and popularity” of Trump and that “adverse reactions to publicity relating to [Trump], or the loss of his services, could adversely affect TMTG’s revenues and results of operations.”
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Why Semiconductor Stocks Micron, Applied Materials, and KLA Corporation Plunged Today
Shares of memory leader Micron (NASDAQ: MU), Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), and KLA Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC) plunged on Tuesday, down 4.3%, 10.9%, and 15.5%, respectively, as of 3:28 p.m. ET.
Semiconductor stocks largely sold off across the board today after equipment leader ASML Holdings (NASDAQ: ASML) accidentally leaked its third-quarter results and outlook, which were supposed to be published tomorrow.
The results and guidance were highly disappointing, sending fears across the sector.
ASML disappoints on a “slower than expected” recovery
In the leaked press release, ASML showed 11.2% revenue growth and 9.1% earnings-per-share (EPS) growth, which aren’t terrible growth figures by any means, with the top line exceeding the company’s guidance last quarter.
However, the bookings figure and outlook for 2025, also contained in the press release, were more worrisome. Net bookings, which reflect revenue plus or minus the change in orders in backlog, were only 2.6 billion euros (~$2.8 billion), far below expectations of 5.39 billion euros (~$5.87 billion).
Moreover, management gave preliminary revenue guidance for 2025 of between 30 billion and 35 billion euros (~$33 billion to $38 billion). While that still portends mid-teens growth above expected 2024 figures of 28 billion euros (~$30 billion), it was below the 36.3 billion euros (~$39.5 billion) analysts were expecting.
Management noted in the press release:
While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover. It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness.
ASML is likely referring to Intel, which has seen lower near-term demand, and Samsung, which has been beset by operational issues and is pushing out its fab expansions. ASML management also noted limited capacity additions for DRAM memory suppliers, as most are converting unused equipment for non-artificial intelligence (AI) memory to production lines for HBM and DDR-5 for AI.
The semiconductor capital equipment sector is very linked. So, if a large fab is pushed out, not only will ASML see slower growth, but so will the etch and deposition equipment supplied by Applied Materials and the metrology and inspection equipment provided by KLA Corporation along with it. Thus, it’s no surprise to see each of those stocks sell off to ASML today by a similar amount.
Micron is also down, given that ASML indicated softer end-demand across non-AI markets. However, it may also be positive for Micron that memory rivals are scaling back their investments in memory capacity. Unlike that of advanced logic chips, memory pricing can fluctuate a lot based on supply and demand. So, the discipline to pull back investments could be a good thing for memory pricing. That’s likely why Micron’s stock is holding up better than the others.
The sell-off may be a good opportunity
This sell-off may be an opportunity for chip investors since the recovery in non-AI markets is very likely to happen at some point, even if a full recovery doesn’t happen as fast as some forecast. After all, the midpoint of ASML’s guidance still points to 16% growth next year. And pushing fab buildouts from 2025 to 2026 should entail more sustained growth beyond 2025.
It seems that 2024 corporate budgets may have been dominated by expensive AI spending, crowding out refreshes of non-AI servers and PCs. However, this aging equipment will have to be refreshed eventually, especially since Windows 10 support will be phased out in October 2025. Furthermore, as more AI-enabled devices come to market, that should be a boon for chip content across all devices in PCs, smartphones, and auto markets that are still lagging today.
So, for those investors with a long-term view, this sell-off based on the medium-term outlook may be an opportunity to pick up high-quality semiconductor names, such as these three, for the long haul.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
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On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
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Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
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Billy Duberstein and/or his clients have positions in ASML, Applied Materials, Intel, KLA, and Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML and Applied Materials. The Motley Fool recommends Intel and recommends the following options: short November 2024 $24 calls on Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Why Semiconductor Stocks Micron, Applied Materials, and KLA Corporation Plunged Today was originally published by The Motley Fool
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Can You Guess What Percent Of People Have $4 Million? Here’s A Look At How Many Reach This Major Wealth Milestone
When you hear “$4 million,” does it sound like a dream retirement nest egg or an actual goal? If you’re thinking, “Yeah, right!” you’re not alone.
Most people are curious about how they compare to others in terms of savings, but few can fathom hitting such a high target. So, how many people have $4 million saved? And more importantly, do you need that much to retire comfortably? According to a study, many people believe you need even more than this for retirement!
Don’t Miss:
The $4 Million Reality
According to data based on estimates from the Federal Reserve, having a net worth of $4 million places you in the top 3% of American households. That’s an elite group, for sure.
Leigh Baldwin & Co. Advisory Services reports about 4,473,836 U.S. households have amassed $4 million or more in wealth. This figure represents roughly 3.44% of all households in the country.
While this is a slim percentage, a recent survey from New York Life found that today’s workers believe they would need an average of $4.3 million to retire comfortably. The idea of having millions tucked away for your golden years might sound ideal, but the reality for most people is quite different.
See Also: Can you guess how many retire with a $5,000,000 nest egg? – How does it compare to the average?
Where Do Americans Stand?
Let’s get real: most Americans are nowhere near that kind of savings. Having $1 million in tax-advantaged retirement accounts could put you in the top 3.2% of retirement savers, but most people find themselves far behind this mark.
According to the Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances, Americans’ average retirement savings is $334,000, while the median – a more accurate picture – is just $86,900. Although people may feel they need millions to retire, they aren’t actually saving millions.
Trending: Studies show 50% of consumers think Financial Advisors cost much more than they do — to debunk this, this company provides matching for free and a complimentary first call with the matched advisor.
The question of how much you need to retire comfortably pops up for savers again and again. In a Forbes article, Michelle Richter-Gordon, co-founder of Annuity Research and Consulting in New York City, explained, “People don’t know how much they need at all. They also don’t know when they will retire.”
The problem is compounded by many people relying on online retirement calculators to figure out their savings needs. While these tools can be helpful, they often overestimate the amount of money required, leaving people feeling overwhelmed or discouraged.
Some of these calculators are provided by investment firms, which may want to boost your contributions to grow their revenues. It’s no wonder that retirement feels like an uphill battle for many.
What Do You Need for Retirement?
It’s important to consider your retirement goals. The amount you need depends on various factors, such as where you plan to live, lifestyle choices and health care costs.
Many experts suggest that aiming for around $1 million to $2 million in retirement savings may be more realistic for most Americans, especially when factoring in Social Security benefits and other sources of income.
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Even if saving millions of dollars seems like a distant dream, losing hope is unnecessary. Start by setting achievable goals, saving consistently and monitoring your long-term financial health. The road to retirement doesn’t have to be intimidating. Ultimately, it’s about making smart financial choices that allow you to live comfortably, not just chasing big numbers.
It’s always a good idea to consult with a financial advisor to ensure you’re on track to retire where you want, without the pressure of hitting some magic number.
Read Next:
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This article Can You Guess What Percent Of People Have $4 Million? Here’s A Look At How Many Reach This Major Wealth Milestone originally appeared on Benzinga.com
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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Demand for leverage in BTC futures jumped to $38 billion, but traders appear well-positioned enough to avoid surprise price swings.
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