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Volatile Bond Market Puts Traders on Defense Amid Fed-Cut Doubts

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Volatile Bond Market Puts Traders on Defense Amid Fed-Cut Doubts


(Bloomberg) — Bond investors are going on defense as the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cutting path turns more uncertain.

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The combination of sticky inflation and weak labor-market figures last week led traders to trim bets on the degree of Fed easing left in 2024, while also driving yields to the highest since July. Meanwhile, a closely watched measure of expected volatility in Treasuries rose to the highest since January.

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It’s a backdrop that’s making it hard to decide where to deploy cash in the world’s biggest bond market. To lessen the vulnerability to a resilient economy, potential fiscal shocks or turbulence around US elections, asset managers including giants like BlackRock Inc., Pacific Investment Management Co. and UBS Global Wealth Management advocate for buying five-year debt because the maturity is less sensitive to such risks than its shorter or longer counterparts.

At UBS Global, Solita Marcelli suggests investments with medium-term duration, such as Treasuries and investment-grade corporate securities with about a five-year maturity.

“We continue to recommend investors position for a lower-rate environment, deploying excess cash, money-market holdings, and expiring fixed-term deposits into assets that can offer more durable income,” said the firm’s chief investment officer for the Americas.

Marcelli’s preferred part of the yield curve outperformed last week as the bond market was whipsawed by an unexpected jump in weekly jobless claims that outweighed a slightly hotter read for US consumer prices.

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The upshot for the bond market is that traders have tempered their rate-cut bets, with just 45 basis points of easing priced in for the next two Fed meetings, whereas a full half-point of cuts was seen as a lock prior to the September jobs report. Options flows, meanwhile, have targeted just one more additional cut this year. A more complicated options trade targets one quarter-point reduction for this year followed by a pause in the easing cycle early next year.

There’s plenty of scope for further gyrations in the weeks ahead, and it’s not just about the US election, which will be decisive in setting investors’ expectations for the US fiscal path. The ICE BofA Move Index — a gauge of volatility that tracks anticipated swings in yields based on options — isn’t far from its 2024 high, showing investors expect little relief from the turbulence.

Elevated rates volatility is likely to persist for weeks to come as investors await the Treasury’s quarterly announcement for note and bond sales, which is expected to remain steady, the next monthly jobs report and the Fed’s Nov. 7 policy decision.

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Citadel Securities is warning clients to brace for what they dub “material volatility going forward” in bond markets. The firm expects the Fed to cut once more in 2024, by a quarter-point.

Investors anticipate further easing as they expect the central bank to move to less restrictive rates over the coming months to secure a soft landing for the economy.

“As the election rolls into the window for option values, implied volatility will look higher,” said David Rogal, a portfolio manager in the fundamental fixed-income group at BlackRock. The firm prefers intermediate-dated Treasuries because it sees the Fed pursuing “a recalibration cycle” from 5% to “getting policy between 3.5% and 4%,” as long as inflation is cooling.

Helping to establish the five-year note as a sweet spot is the concern that a rising US deficit spells trouble for longer-dated Treasuries.

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“The shorter maturity part of the yield curve, five years and less, looks more compelling to us at the moment,” said Anmol Sinha, investment director for Capital Group’s $91.4 billion Bond Fund of America.

Sinha said their positioning would benefit from “a more pronounced growth slowdown or a recession or a negative shock. The other scenario is rising concerns about higher fiscal deficits and impending Treasury supply, as there is not much risk premium in long-dated bonds.”

‘Buy Zone’

Still, with 10-year yields near 4.1%, the post-payrolls’ selloff is also pushing that benchmark into a “buy zone” for some long-term investors.

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“Our central case is that the economy does slow next year as Fed policy will still be restrictive,” Roger Hallam, global head of rates at Vanguard, said in an interview. That means, for the company, when the 10-year yield is above 4% “there is an opportunity to start to lengthen our portfolios’ duration with that sort of downside growth impulse in mind next year.”

That will allow the company to slowly “move to more overweight bonds,” he added.

Since around early September, Vanguard has also been benefiting from a tactical short wager in Treasuries as yields began to rise. The company remains in that short-term trade, though it has trimmed the size from its original level.

What to Watch

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Note: The US bond market will be closed Oct. 14 in observance of a holiday

  • Economic data:

    • Oct. 15: Empire manufacturing; New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; monthly budget statement

    • Oct. 16: MBA mortgage applications; New York Fed services business activity; import and export price indexes

    • Oct. 17: Retail sales; Philadelphia Fed business outlook; initial jobless claims; industrial production; capacity utilization; business inventories; NAHB housing index; TIC flows

    • Oct. 18: Housing starts; building permits

  • Fed calendar:

    • Oct. 14: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari: Fed Governor Christopher Waller

    • Oct. 15: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

    • Oct. 17: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

    • Oct. 18: Kashkari; Waller

  • Auction calendar:

    • Oct. 15: 13-, 26-week bills; 43-day CMB

    • Oct. 16: 17-week bills

    • Oct. 17: 4-, 8-week bills

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.



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Time to Hit Buy on These 2 Software Stocks, Says Daniel Ives

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Time to Hit Buy on These 2 Software Stocks, Says Daniel Ives


It’s no secret that tech stocks have been powering the market gains over the past few years, and software stocks were among the biggest drivers of this growth.

Multiple factors are propelling the software industry forward, such as the rapid advancement of AI technology, high demand for IT solutions, and the ongoing expansion of the global digital economy.

Wedbush tech expert Daniel Ives has been watching the tech industry, and his take on it points to continued strength supported by AI and cloud expansion.

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“Solid enterprise spending, digital advertising rebound, and the AI Revolution will drive tech stocks higher into year-end in our view,” Ives opined. “We believe 70% of global workloads will be on the cloud by the end of 2025, up from less than 50% today.”

Keeping that in mind, Ives goes on to add that the time has come to hit buy on two software stocks. They may not be household names, but according to the TipRanks data, both stocks are Buy-rated – and Ives sees significantly more upside to each than the consensus on the Street. Let’s take a closer look.

Couchbase (BASE)

We’ll start with Couchbase, a modern database platform provider that offers users and developers everything they need to support a wide range of applications – from cloud, to edge, to AI. Couchbase bills itself as a one-stop-shop for data developers and architects, making its services available through its powerful database-as-a-service platform, Capella. Organizations using the service can quickly create applications and services that deliver premium customer experiences, giving top-end performance at affordable prices.

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The Capella platform brings the popular as-a-service subscription model to the database industry. The company can support database services for a wide range of AI applications, including the latest gen-AI tech, as well as database search, mobile access, and analytic functions. Customers can also choose self-managed services through Couchbase’s servers, with on-premises management for both multicloud and community apps.

Couchbase’s database service has found success in a wide range of fields, including the gaming, healthcare, entertainment, retail, travel, and utility sectors. The company’s customer base includes such major names as Verizon, UPS, Walmart, Cisco, Comcast, GE, and PayPal.

Turning to the financial results, we see that Couchbase reported its fiscal 2Q25 figures at the start of last month. The top line of $51.6 million was up almost 20% year-over-year and came in just over the forecast, beating expectations by nearly a half-million dollars. At the bottom line, the company ran a net loss of 6 cents per share in non-GAAP measures, but that was 3 cents per share better than had been anticipated.

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Ripple files Form C, appeals SEC ruling on XRP institutional sales

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Ripple files Form C, appeals SEC ruling on XRP institutional sales


Ripple challenges SEC’s ruling on institutional XRP sales, claiming the Howey test was misapplied.



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Bitcoin analyst: $100K BTC price by February 'completely within reason'

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Bitcoin analyst: $100K BTC price by February 'completely within reason'


BTC price trajectory appears all but destined for six figures in the mid term — despite nearly eight months of Bitcoin market consolidation.



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1 Top Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist Before That Happens

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1 Top Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist Before That Happens


2024 is turning out to be a solid year for the global semiconductor industry, driven by multiple catalysts. These include the booming demand for chips that can manage artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, a turnaround in the smartphone market’s fortunes, and a recovery in the personal computer (PC) market.

These factors explain why the global semiconductor industry’s revenue is expected to jump 16% in 2024 to $611.2 billion, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS). That points toward a nice turnaround from last year, when the semiconductor industry’s revenue fell 8%. Even better, the semiconductor space is expected to keep growing in 2025 as well, with WSTS projecting a 12.5% increase in the industry’s earnings to $687.4 billion next year.

More specifically, WSTS predicts a whopping 25% increase in the memory market’s revenue in 2025 to $204.3 billion. As it turns out, memory is expected to be the fastest-growing semiconductor segment next year as well, following an estimated jump of almost 77% in this segment’s revenue in 2024.

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There’s one company that could help investors tap this fast-growing niche of the semiconductor market next year: Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU). Let’s look at the reasons why buying this semiconductor stock could turn out to be a smart move right now.

WSTS isn’t the only forecaster expecting the memory market to surge higher next year. Market research firm TrendForce estimates that the sales of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) could jump 51% in 2025, while the NAND flash storage market could clock 29% growth. Both these markets are expected to reach record highs next year.

The growth in these memory markets will be driven by a combination of strong demand and improved pricing. TrendForce is forecasting a 35% year-over-year increase in DRAM prices next year, driven by the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) that’s used in AI processors, as well as the growth in DRAM deployed in servers. Meanwhile, the growing demand for enterprise-class solid-state drives (SSDs) and the growth in smartphone storage will be tailwinds for the NAND flash market.

These positive trends explain why Micron is set to begin its new fiscal year on a bright note. The company’s revenue in fiscal 2024 (which ended on Aug. 29) increased 61% year over year to $25.1 billion. The company posted a non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) profit of $1.30 per share, compared to a loss of $4.45 per share in fiscal 2023, driven by a big jump in its operating margin on account of recovering memory prices.

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A truly decentralized system would decentralize authority — Cardano exec

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A truly decentralized system would decentralize authority — Cardano exec


Cardano Foundation chief technology officer Giorgio Zinetti told Cointelegraph that centralized authority is good for speed, but decentralized governance would give long-term sustainability. 



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Intel’s former CEO tried to buy Nvidia almost 2 decades ago

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Intel's former CEO tried to buy Nvidia almost 2 decades ago


Tech pioneer Intel (INTC) has seemingly missed out on the artificial intelligence boom — and part of it can reportedly be traced back to a decision not to buy the chipmaker at the center of it all almost two decades ago.

Intel’s former chief executive Paul Otellini wanted to buy Nvidia in 2005 when the chipmaker was mostly known for making computer graphics chips, which some executives thought had potential for data centers, The New York Times (NYT) reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. However, Intel’s board did not approve of the $20 billion acquisition — which would’ve been the company’s most expensive yet — and Otellini dropped the effort, according to The New York Times.

Instead, the board was reportedly more interested in an in-house graphics project called Larrabee, which was led by now-chief executive Pat Gelsinger.

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Almost two decades later, Nvidia (NVDA) has become the second-most valuable public company in the world and continuously exceeds Wall Street’s high expectations. Intel, on the other hand, has seen its shares fall around 53% so far this year and is now worth less than $100 billion — around 30 times less than Nvidia’s $3.4 trillion market cap.

In August, Intel shares fell 27% after it missed revenue expectations with its second-quarter earnings and announced layoffs. The company missed profit expectations partly due to its decision to “more quickly ramp” its Core Ultra artificial intelligence CPUs, or core processing units, that can handle AI applications, Gelsinger said on the company’s earnings call.

And Nvidia wasn’t the only AI darling Intel missed out on.

Over a decade after passing on Nvidia, Intel made another strategic miss by reportedly deciding not to buy a stake in OpenAI, which had not yet kicked off the current AI hype with the release of ChatGPT in November 2022.

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Former Intel chief executive Bob Swan didn’t think OpenAI’s generative AI models would come to market soon enough for the investment to be worth it, Reuters reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the matter. The AI startup had been interested in Intel, sources told Reuters (TRI), so it could depend less on Nvidia and build its own infrastructure.

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