As we approach the end of 2024, the outlook for the US stock market – which makes up almost 65% of the global equity benchmark – appears finely balanced.

Headwinds such as slowing growth, high market concentration, full valuations and election uncertainty are offset by several supportive tailwinds, including robust corporate earnings, moderating inflation and continued monetary policy easing.

Given these competing forces, a higher level of overall market volatility is expected moving forward. While this can be unsettling, it is a positive backdrop for active stockpicking, as company valuations and fundamental quality come into focus.

Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at 20x forward 12-month earnings. This still feels lofty

With corporate balance sheets still looking healthy and further room for manoeuvre on interest rates as the Federal Reserve is less fearful of inflationary pressures, a soft-landing scenario still looks like the most likely outcome.

From here, we expect a slow, steady grind forward, with periods of heightened volatility as markets react to macro data and earnings.

While many of the drivers behind the sharp correction we witnessed in August have been diluted, they have not disappeared. Given most of this year’s market rally has been driven by stocks becoming more expensive – with little change in their earnings potential – it is not surprising valuations remain elevated in the US, although they have slightly moderated. Currently, the S&P 500 is trading at 20x forward 12-month earnings. This still feels lofty.

The most recent earnings season proved positive for the most part, with the breadth of upside surprises looking strong versus previous quarters. For example, within the S&P 500, 80% of companies beat expectations versus the long-term average of 76%.

One of the more surprising features of the August correction was that markets overall behaved quite rationally

However, markets are forward looking, and there are some concerns surrounding the outlook for earnings. The magnitude of upside surprises across most sectors has generally weakened. Across technology, for example, the size of earnings per share was the lowest for a number of quarters.

One of the more surprising features of the August correction was that markets overall behaved quite rationally – most sectors performed in line with their respective earnings per share revisions. Stocks that missed expectations were punished severely.

With a potentially weaker growth environment ahead, and the prospect of more muted market returns, the importance of consistent, process-driven, stock selection increases. This year has already presented favourable opportunities for adding value, and this trend appears likely to continue, particularly as stock correlation – or the degree to which stock prices move together – decreases. As you might expect, stock correlations picked up noticeably during the recent August volatility but remain below medium-term averages.

Markets will likely continue to have bouts of volatility in the short term as sentiment shifts and markets move on emotions. In the long term, however, a company’s stock price tends to accurately reflect what it is economically worth.

Trump has repeatedly floated a 10% border tax on all goods coming to the US from abroad and a tariff as high as 60% on imports from China

While absolute returns may be pressured in the near term, this environment moving into 2025 should yield some good opportunities for stockpickers who stay anchored to fundamentals and reject false narratives.

Finally, when discussing the outlook for US stocks, it is also important to consider the upcoming election – the differing approaches of the candidates could have important implications for markets, industries and geopolitics during the next president’s time in office and beyond.

Former president Donald Trump and some of his key advisers have tended to regard significant trade deficits with other countries as potential signs of unfair competition and a detriment to the US economy.

In the run-up to the election, Trump has repeatedly floated a 10% border tax on all goods coming to the US from abroad and a tariff as high as 60% on imports from China. Setting aside feasibility and the specific numbers, these pronouncements signal that a second Trump administration would likely take an aggressive stance on trade policy that would extend beyond China.

Understanding companies’ exposure to overseas supply chains and their potential to increase prices in response to rising costs will be critical

A Kamala Harris presidency would likely take its cues from Joe Biden’s trade policies. During his presidential term, Biden left in place the tariffs that Trump levied on Chinese imports. His administration also took targeted actions on trade that tended to be informed by national security considerations and efforts to strengthen domestic industry.

In addition to focusing on strategically important industries, a Harris administration would probably favour a multilateral approach to trade policy, seeking to engage traditional US allies.

For investors, understanding companies’ exposure to overseas supply chains and their potential to increase prices in response to rising costs will be critical.

Justin White is portfolio manager of the T. Rowe Price US All‑Cap Opportunities Equity strategy

ALDI has launched a new glow-in-the-dark wine just in time for Halloween – and shoppers can’t wait to get their hands on it.

The latest spooky Specialbuy is in-stores now for only £7.19.

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Aldi has unveiled the limited-edition version of its already-popular Rebrobates Red Wine just in time for Halloween.

The Reprobates Ghouliburra Red has a new glow-in-the-dark label – perfect for any spooky party.

By day it may look like your average bottle of wine, but at night, a vibrant, glowing skeleton is visible – ready to light up the room.

According to the supermarket giant, the red wine is “a smooth, medium-bodied Australian blend” with red berry aromas, complemented by oaky vanilla and chocolate notes.

And for those who are fans of the original Reprobates, Aldi has introduced a 1.5L box version – the equivalent of two bottles.

It’s priced at only £13.99 and is ideal for a Halloween party this year.

It comes as Aldi launched their “most divisive product of 2024” just in time for Halloween.

The supermarket uploaded a video showing off their new Monster Munch Mayo that has arrived in stores ahead of Halloween.

The limited edition bottles of pickled onion-flavoured sauce is available to buy now and will set you back £1.99.

In a clip, an Aldi staff member said: “The most divisive product of 2024 has landed at Aldi.

“We’ve got our new, scarily good Heinz Monster Munch Mayo.”

They then asked team members whether they were “Team Monster Munch Mayo or Team Absolutely No Wayo?”

One said: “Pickled onion flavour is my favourite Munch Munch crisps, so I’m going to give this a go just because they’re my favourite crisps.”

Another said: “Oh, my God—10 out of 10. I need to try this!”

However, others weren’t as sold.

One said: “It’s an interesting concept, and I’d probably try it once, but maybe not again.”

A second added:” I think I’ll stick with normal mayo.”

Aldi shoppers also took to the comments to share their views on the launch.

One said: “Has anyone tried this? I’m tempted but scared.”

And one wrote: “This sounds rank.”

Some Aldi shoppers who had already tried it raved about the taste.

One commented: “Brought it today, was shocked, it’s tastes just like the crisps, will be great with chips or on a ham sarnie.”

And one agreed: “It’s absolutely lush.”

Are you a director of a Ltd company who is keen to save towards your retirement? Well, Self-Invested Personal Pensions (SIPPs) offer a variety of ways in which you can invest for later life. When considering long-term investments such as pensions savings, key considerations should include your needs, level of risk, accessibility of pension pots, fees involved, and how to withdraw your pension. Let’s explore the ins and outs of Pensionbee and Penfold which are popular SIPPs options available.

Both Pensionbee and Penfold provide contemporary and efficient ways to access and engage with personal pensions. Despite the subtle differences between both providers, PensionBee has a higher overall customer rating and is more user friendly. But, whichever option you choose as your investment provider, bear in mind that pension investments fluctuate so your initial capital may be at risk of loss of value. The great news however, is that SIPPs attract a minimum of 25% government bonus on each contribution (depending on tax band) and they also offer generous tax savings – first 25% of your pension drawdown is tax free! Investments in Pensionbee and Penfold are also protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) so up to £85,000 of your investment is protected by the government in the event that these regulated financial providers fail.

In this episode of the Weekend Essay podcast, Lois Vallely recounts her experience with a recent email hack and discusses the growing prevalence of phishing scams. She highlights the vulnerabilities financial firms face and shares practical advice on protecting sensitive information better. Join Lois as she emphasizes the importance of being aware of cyber risks and adopting proactive measures to ensure cybersecurity in both personal and professional settings. Listen now:

A WOMAN has revealed how she landed a huge £1 million jackpot – only to be told she couldn’t claim it due to a little-known Lotto rule.

Terri Picton-Clark, 72, said she and husband John, 72, decided to pick up a Lucky Dip ticket while they were on their way to browse a hardware shop.

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The grandmother, who works at an equine therapy centre, said:  “On our way to our kitchen appointment, we stopped off to get some petrol and John bought a Lottery ticket – he always buys a Lucky Dip.

“He said to me, ‘you never know, we might win the Lottery’, to which I replied ‘Oh, you always say that!’.”

The following Monday, John returned to the garage shop to check his winnings – but was confused by the cashier’s response.

The employee purportedly said: “You are going to have to call Camelot, you’ve won too much money.”

For small lottery prizes, winners can normally claim their earnings from the shop where they bought the ticket.

At the time of Terri and John’s win, larger prizes – between £500 and £50,000 – needed to be claimed at participating Post Office branches, though these now have to be claimed online.

Because of this rule, Terri quickly twigged that the couple may have landed a huge prize – but little did she know quite how big.

Recalling John’s phone conversation with the lottery operator, she said: “I was working on a Zoom call when John came in waving the ticket about, and I mouthed to him ‘what are you doing?’ but continued the call, ignoring him.

“We were thinking it was around £50,000, but when Camelot confirmed it was £1 million, John was very calm as usual and I was the one jumping up and down!”

Despite the confusing rule delaying the couple claiming their prize, they were delighted with the result.

Terri said: “John gave the shop assistant at the garage who sold him the ticket £100 and said to her, ‘make sure you don’t do anything sensible with the money’.”

The pair then enjoyed a few bottles of champagne, with Terri joking: “John didn’t get up until 3pm the next day!”

They have since used some of the money to support family and friends.

The horse lover and amateur ballroom dancer said: “We’ve helped friends who are home-schooling their children.

“We bought another laptop for them to make things a little easier and we also bought one for my grandchild to help my son.

“To be able to tell friends who have always been there for you that you can help them feels amazing.”

The couple also shared that they were thinking of either a trip to Antarctica or a skiing holiday with the grandkids.

Terri said: “I would love to go again, if I can still do it! John has never been on a winter holiday.”

John and Terri first met 25 years ago while working together, but their relationship didn’t work out with Terri describing John as “the one that got away”.

However, shortly after the huge Beast from the East storm, the estranged lovers reunited.

Terri continued: “I came home from a really dreadful date and wondered if that was all there was out there for me.

“I went back on the dating site for one last look and came across John who was stranded in the same area due to the blizzard.

“I thought to myself, ‘I know him’, so I messaged him and asked if he remembered me.

“He replied and said, ‘Of course I remember you and you’re looking even better than you did all those years ago!’

“We met up that weekend and the rest is history.”

Terri won five ballroom and two Latin titles during her amateur dancing career.

What are my chances of winning the lottery?

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EVERYONE wants to know how to beat the odds and win the lottery.

But unfortunately, the lottery is a game of luck and there are no tips or tricks that can guarantee you’ll take home a top prize.

The odds show how likely you are to win any particular prize – the lower the number, the better the odds.

For example, odds of 1 in 10 are better than odds of 1 in 100 or 1 in 1,000.

There are several major lottery games in the UK including Lotto by the National Lottery, Camelot’s EuroMillions and Thunderball.

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Chances of winning the Lotto

Lotto by the National Lottery is a game where you pick six numbers from 1 to 59. You can play up to seven lines of numbers on each slip.

The game costs £2 to play per slip.

The odds of winning any prize on the Lotto are 1 in 9.3.

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But to win the jackpot on the Lotto, the odds are considerably slimmer.

To bag the top prize, you need to have six matching balls. The odds of doing this and scooping the jackpot are currently 1 in 45,057,474.

The next highest prize of £1,000,000 is for getting five main matching balls plus the bonus ball.

The odds of taking home the million pound prize are 1 in 7,509,579 – far higher than the jackpot, but still unlikely.

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The odds of taking home £1,750 for getting five main numbers without the bonus ball are 1 in 2,180, while you have a 1 in 97 chance of bagging £140 for getting four main numbers.

Your chances of taking home £30 for getting 3 main numbers are much better at 1 in 97.

And you have a roughly 1 in 10 chance of getting a free lucky dip for 2 matching numbers.

Chances of winning the EuroMillions

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The EuroMillions costs £2.50 to play and is open on Tuesdays and Fridays.

To play, you must pick five numbers from 1-50 and two “Lucky Stars” from 1-12. Players with the most matching numbers win the top prizes.

Your chance of bagging the EuroMillions jackpot is even slimmer than winning the top Lotto prize.

This is because it generally has higher jackpots on offer, meaning it attracts more attention.

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Currently, the odds of matching five numbers and two lucky stars – the top win – stand at 1 in 139,838,160.

The average jackpot prize is £57,923,499, according to EuroMillions.

The odds of winning the second top prize for matching 5 balls and a lucky star, which is typically around £262,346, are 1 in 6,991,908.

The chances of taking home the third prize for five matching balls, with an average payout of £26,277, are 1 in 3,107,515.

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For four matching balls with two lucky stars, it’s 1 in 621,503, and for four balls with one lucky star, it’s 1 in 31,076. These come with an average prize of £1,489 and £95, respectively.

Chances of winning the Thunderball

Thunderball is another game run by National Lottery where you pick five numbers and one “Thunderball”. It costs just £1 to play and you can enter up to four times a week.

The jackpot of £500,000 for matching five balls plus the Thunderball is 1 in 8,060,598.

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Your odds of bagging the next highest prize of £5,000 for matching five balls is currently 1 in 620,046, while the chances of winning £250 for four balls plus the Thunderball is 1 in 47,416.

You have the best chance of winning £3 for matching the Thunderball, with odds of 1 in 29.

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With the current pension landscape changing significantly in line with increases in life expectancy in the UK, planning for a sustainable retirement income is of utmost importance. The State Pension (Tier 1) presents fiscal challenges for the UK government so as longevity increases, the eligible age also increases. In an attempt to alleviate financial difficulties in later life, here are some useful tips to consider when planning retirement income in workplace pensions (Tier 2) and private/personal pensions (Tier 3).

Tier 2 – Workplace pensions

These schemes offer the dual benefit of employer contribution and tax relief to pension contributions. For individuals automatically enrolled into a workplace pension, the minimum contribution from employers is 3% and 5% for employees (8% minimum total contribution) for the 24/25 tax year.

Drawing from your workplace pension

The benefit of joining a Defined Benefit (DB) pension scheme is that it offers an indexed link, and guaranteed pension income for life. The normal retirement age to access pension income is usually set at 60 – 65 but depending on the rules of the scheme, you might be able to access your pension from age 55. DB schemes generally offer better income levels with no investment risk to individuals. In the event of employer insolvency, the Pension Protection Fund (PPF) ensures that members receive a portion of their benefits.

Access to Direct Contribution (DC) pension pots is usually through income/pension drawdown. With investments in this scheme linked to the stock market, there is the risk that funds may increase or decrease in value. Access to pension pots in this scheme is set to a minimum age of 55. However, you may be able to draw your pension early based on the rules of the scheme or if you are retiring early due to ill-health. Pension scheme payments that are made earlier than the minimum age may attract tax charges of up to 55%

Tier 3 – Private/Personal pensions

Personal pensions – these represent a DC scheme where individuals are able to make regular payments or lump sum payments to a chosen pension provider who will invest the money on their behalf. The amount paid into this scheme will help to determine the size of your pension pot but such investments are susceptible to market risks and usually attract administration charges by the pension provider. Contributions made to private pensions benefit from tax relief of 20%, which makes them a good savings option.

Self-Invested Personal Pensions (SIPP)– SIPPS provides a tax-efficient savings account which offers individuals flexible ways in which to invest their own savings based on their risk tolerance. Money can also be paid in as a lump sum or on a regular basis and tax reliefs of 20% (basic rate taxpayer), 40% (higher rate taxpayer) or 45% (additional rate taxpayer) are applied on SIPPs contributions for those under the age of 75 and are UK residents. SIPPs are also accessible to non-tax payers and offers a tax relief of 20%. Tax reliefs for SIPPs are capped at £60,000 for the 24/25 tax year, with any pension payments above that limit subjected to a higher rate of income tax. Unlike personal pensions, SIPPS provide greater choice and control over the ways in which funds are invested. Investment choices include shares, bonds, exchange-traded funds and unit trusts. The variety of options available with SIPPs indicate the potential for a higher level of return on investments, which also increases the risk of the investment.

Drawing your private pension

The age at which these pensions can be taken is usually at age 55 (although this is expected to rise to 57 by 2028). Lump sum payments can be taken but only 25% of this amount will be tax free. A useful option would be purchase an annuity, which is a life policy that converts money from a pension fund into a guaranteed income for a fixed duration or until death.

Other option

Lifetime ISA (LISA) offers an attractive retirement savings option for individuals between the ages of 18 and 40, and can be used to complement existing pension savings. It currently allows savings of up to £4,000 per year with the added benefit of a government bonus of 25% (up to £1,000 per year). For example £250 on contributions of £1000. It must be noted however that the £4,000 LISA limit is included in your annual Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) limit of £20,000 for the 24/25 tax year.