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The potential impact of Donald Trump on the Ukraine war and the western alliance is well understood. But what happens in Germany could be almost as important.

The Germans are the second-largest national aid donors to Ukraine, after the US, and they are central players in both the EU and Nato. But populist parties, sympathetic to Russia, are on the rise in Germany.

The Alternative for Germany party (AfD) almost won the elections in the state of Brandenburg on Sunday. This is the party’s third strong performance in a row, after coming first in state elections in Thuringia and a close second in Saxony.

Combine the AfD vote with that of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and something like a third of Germans — and many more in eastern Germany — are voting for populist parties that are militantly anti-migration, hostile to Nato and determined to cut off aid to Ukraine. When Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Bundestag in June, all but four of the AfD’s 77 members boycotted his speech.

The policy stances taken by the AfD and BSW, combined with accusations that many AfD members have an undeclared agenda that is even more extremist, mean that Germany’s traditional parties will refuse to go into coalition with the populists — at least at the national level. But the rise of the political extremes is already having an influence on government policies. Germany’s decision to impose border controls with its EU neighbours reflects the angst about illegal migration that the populists have capitalised on.

Ukraine’s supporters worry that the next policy adjustments will involve a softening of German support for Kyiv. The Ukrainian army is already struggling to hold off Russian forces in the east of the country and is running short of ammunition and troops. A decline in German and American support for Ukraine could help Russia to win the war.

Even if Russian tanks do not roll into Kyiv, Ukraine’s supporters worry that the Zelenskyy government may soon be forced to make territorial concessions that would allow Vladimir Putin to claim victory. A bad peace deal could put Ukraine’s future as a viable nation in doubt and embolden Putin to threaten other countries.

Ukraine’s friends in Berlin see proliferating signs of a possible softening in German support. While Britain and the US are debating allowing Ukraine to use their long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia, Germany has ruled out supplying its own Taurus missiles.

Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, has said that there can be no further package of financial aid for Ukraine, without making politically impossible compensatory cuts in the budget. The EU’s decision to mobilise some frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine has taken the financial pressure off Berlin for now. But the question of German financial aid is certain to return.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz is lagging badly behind in national polls and looks to be heading for defeat in next September’s federal elections. Ukraine’s most ardent supporters worry that Scholz may be tempted to try to revive his political fortunes, by launching a pre-election peace initiative with Russia.

Nervousness about what Scholz might be up to was reflected in rumours doing the rounds in Berlin last week that a contact group, composed of members of his Social Democratic party, was in Moscow for secret talks.

These suggestions were waved away in the chancellery. Scholz’s key aides seem almost equally exasperated by the Russophile populists and by the hawks in Berlin that are demanding a sharp increase in aid for Kyiv. They see themselves as representing the moderate German middle on Ukraine. The government’s task, as Scholz sees it, is to keep a divided country together around a basically pro-Ukraine policy.

For the Ukrainians, however — long frustrated by what they regard as the snail-like pace of German aid — any suggestion that the Scholz government may become even more cautious is dismaying. Hawks in Kyiv and Berlin argue that if Putin is not defeated in Ukraine, he will move on to threaten Nato and ultimately Germany itself.

Scholz and his allies insist that he is not naive about the threat posed by Putin. They see the daily evidence of Russian brutality in Ukraine, as well as sabotage and disinformation inside Germany itself. Over the long term, German analysts worry that Russia has now fully converted into an economy primed for war and weapons production. They note that some of the most advanced weaponry that Russia is churning out is not being used in Ukraine, but seems to be being stored for some possible future conflict.

The German chancellor knows all this. But political leaders live in the moment and their outlooks are almost invariably dominated by domestic politics. Scholz has a very difficult election ahead and would like to run as the peace candidate.

He is also based in Berlin — a city that has seen so much darkness and tragedy — but which now feels a long way from the front lines of Ukraine. Last week, the pavement bars and bike paths near the chancellor’s office were full of people enjoying the late summer sunshine. The idea that dark times are returning to Europe is a hard thing for a government — or for a people — to face.

gideon.rachman@ft.com

(credit: North Island)

The tropical oceanic climate of this small country presents the ultimate in barefoot luxury and a backdrop for an exceptional and unique destination. Located in the far north of the Indian Ocean archipelago, North Island measures at 201 hectares where guests are surrounded by turquoise water and breathtaking white sand beaches and warm crystal-clear waters, a dream island fantasy island that has come to life. Only accessible by boat or helicopter, the island resort attracts visitors seeking the ultimate romantic escape offering views of jagged peaks, vibrant green jungles and a wide variety of water-based and land-based activities.

(credit: North Island)

While the resort opened in 2003 and has gone through refurbishments and modern upgrades, the island was put on the map in 2011 as it was the honeymoon destination of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge. Located amongst the granitic islands of Seychelles, one of its 115 islands dotted in the Indian Ocean, North Island is a place of exclusive luxury within an exquisite wilderness sanctuary. Comprising 11 villas, each measuring between 5,000 and 8,000 sq. ft., the villas have all been created from local materials harvested during the island rehabilitation process in 1997, balancing luxury and simplicity to make it your own sanctuary.

(credit: North Island)

Immersed in lush tropical vegetation and just steps from the soft white-sand beach, the villas offer each guest unparalleled space and total discretion. The villas balance serene comfort with the natural environment, as they are screened from view by the natural vegetation, ensuring total privacy. Presenting a mix of textures and handcrafted furniture, each villa has a private plunge pool, a butler and fully retractable doors with spectacular views of the ocean beyond.

The epitome of luxury is their Villa North Island which is perched on a granite cliff at the edge of East Beach. This grand villa is spread over one level and presents two bedrooms and a bathroom and features a hidden entrance through the adjacent coconut groves. Guests of this villa enjoy unmatched views of the beach along with an oversized marble bath perfect for sharing and excellent sunrise sights, adding to its grandness and romance.

(credit: North Island)

Beyond a luxury destination, sustainability lies at the heart of North Island’s philosophy and allows for an inimitable experience. With a true sense of place, the island employs full-time environmentalists to preserve one of the world’s most biologically diverse and important areas. Its Noah’s Ark program started in 1997. The ambitious challenge to restore the island following the collapse of the coconut industry in the 1970s has seen multiple efforts in marine conservation, forest restoration, sea turtle nesting and its Magpie Robin conservation local conservation program. Guests on the island can also meet Brutus, their 450-lb 160-year-old turtle which lives on the island.

(credit: North Island)

Guests who visit the island will have their own golf buggy to traverse the winding sandy paths from their villa to the restaurant or beaches around. North Island allows guests to live the idyllic island life with its generous list of activities, where couples can feel like they have the entire island to themselves. From yoga to aquatic experiences to massages by the sea to a number of excursions like diving, hiking and fishing, a day on North Island is pure bliss. 

The scenery at and around the resort perfectly positions itself as one of the most romantic spots in the world. Whether couples are celebrating their dream honeymoon or planning the ultimate beach destination wedding, the resort offers bespoke offerings that couples will never forget. A place of natural beauty and timeless relaxation, the calm rhythm of the Indian Ocean infuses the resort and offers guests a private place to rejuvenate their bodies and awaken their souls. 

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Standard Chartered is taking legal action against several of its own investors, including a hedge fund run by DE Shaw, in what is seen by legal experts as a test case over the transition from the scandal-ridden Libor interest rate.

The legal battle, which is due to be heard in London’s High Court of Justice this week, could set a precedent for other companies’ investor payouts.

The dispute is over whether Standard Chartered can force through a change in the interest rate it pays out on its preferred shares, bypassing investor concerns, according to legal documents seen by the Financial Times.

Lawyers have claimed it is the first time the way a company moves away from using Libor has been challenged in the courts and the outcome could have far-reaching consequences.

Libor — or the London Interbank Offered Rate — was scrapped in June 2023 following years of scandal, including revelations more than a decade ago that traders from a range of global banks were systematically rigging the rate.

A synthetic version of Libor was developed to allow companies to transition, but this is set to be phased out this month.

Standard Chartered issued $750mn of preference shares in 2006 with an interest rate that was later linked to Libor. But the prospectuses did not set out what would happen if Libor was scrapped. 

The bank has tried to switch from Libor to an alternative rate known as SOFR, or the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, but has met resistance from its investors. 

Their lawyers are set to argue that SOFR, which is insensitive to risk, acts very differently to Libor during times of economic and financial crises, and is therefore an inappropriate substitute, according to documents seen by the FT.

Standard Chartered sought a consent solicitation from its investors in January last year over switching the rate, but it was denied. 

The bank then began legal action this June to force through the change. Several investors, including DE Shaw’s Galvanic Portfolios fund and three funds run by Boston-based hedge fund manager Bracebridge Capital, requested to be added to the suit as defendants.

The case will be heard over five days at London’s commercial court, starting on Friday, with a decision expected by the end of October.

Lawyers for the investors are expected to call on Standard Chartered to redeem the shares and reissue new shares with the updated interest rate.

Standard Chartered and DE Shaw declined to comment. Bracebridge did not respond to a request for comment.

7IM has upgraded its platofrm tools and functionality following feedback from advisers and clients.

The enhancements include the integration of software from ZeroKey, a web-app that enables advisers to transfer client data from their own tech stacks into 7IM’s illustrations and application tools.

This eliminates the need for advisers to manually re-key data, saving them valuable time.

The web extension also enables advisers to easily access their clients’ data, allowing them to move it to wherever they need to.

7IM said the upgrade is part of a multimillion-pound and multi-year investment into its proprietary technology and commitment to providing unrivalled service to advisers and clients.

It has also expanded its investment range with the addition of the Standard Life International Bond to the list of bond providers available on its platform.

This provides an open architecture wrapper giving advisers the freedom to manage their clients’ investments without being tied to a particular platform.

Last week, 7IM introduced Brooks Macdonald as a new DFM partner through the Retirement Income Solution (RIS) available on its platform.

Two new fund ranges will provide advisers with more flexibility as part of their centralised retirement proposition as well as offering clients greater choice through their retirement plans.

Russell Lancaster, MD platform and intermediary partnerships at 7IM, said: “As part of our ongoing conversations with advisers, we are aware of their frustrations such as a lack of integration between technology and this being a major cause of inefficiency in their businesses.

“We continue to listen and are actively addressing these pinch points by investing in technology to make their lives easier.

“We know that we must constantly evolve what we offer in line with adviser and clients’ needs if we are to realise our ambitious growth plans.”