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Rapid rise of LNG trucking pushes China to peak diesel

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China’s LNG and diesel market price

Cheap natural gas is spurring Chinese truckers to switch to rigs powered by the fuel, damping the country’s appetite for oil and contributing to a “catastrophic” sales drop for the China unit of one of the world’s largest truckmakers.

While the country’s rapid adoption of electric cars has been in the spotlight, significant change has also been taking place in China’s freight industry.

Analysts said the swift rise of natural gas-powered trucks, particularly heavy-duty vehicles of 14 tonnes and above, had helped thrust China past peak diesel demand and moved it closer to reaching peak oil.

The trend has hit Germany’s Daimler Truck, which has focused on perfecting diesel engines and building electric and hydrogen-based engines for the future.

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“Diesel demand peaked earlier than we expected,” said Sun Yang, a liquefied natural gas analyst at OilChem, who estimates this happened as early as 2018. “The speed at which LNG has replaced diesel in heavy-duty trucks has been very fast.”

China’s diesel use is forecast to fall 4 per cent this year and will continue to slowly decline in the coming years, said analysts at investment bank CICC in September. Dong Dandan, an energy analyst at China Securities brokerage, estimated the country’s LNG truck fleet would displace about 9.2mn tonnes of diesel consumption in 2024, equivalent to 4 per cent of last year’s demand.

China’s LNG and diesel market price

The switch to natural gas-powered trucks helps Beijing alleviate security concerns over imported oil. China imports about three-quarters of the resource it needs, primarily from Russia and Saudi Arabia, compared with 40 per cent for natural gas. The transition also contributes to government efforts to clean up polluted cities.

Chinese policymakers have spent the past two decades expanding domestic gasfields, as well as building pipeline networks, gas liquefaction plants and a robust network of natural gas fuelling stations.

Wang Peng, who manages a platform to buy and sell used trucks in Beijing, said diesel ones were a rare sight in western China. “They’ve been completely replaced by natural gas,” he said.

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“This year, northern Chinese provinces have switched to buying natural gas heavy-duty trucks, there aren’t many diesel left,” he said. “The south is moving slower, because they don’t have as many stations to fill up.”

Natural gas trucks made up 42 per cent of China’s heavy-duty truck sales from January to August, compared with just 9 per cent in 2022, according to data from CV World, a Beijing-based commercial vehicle research provider.

Column chart of % of sales showing China’s LNG heavy-duty truck sales are growing rapidly

Wayne Fung, a logistics expert at CMB International, said Chinese truck buyers were choosing LNG over diesel because it was cheaper, currently by 23 per cent. Chinese LNG prices have remained low due to the country’s large domestic gas production and growing volumes of pipelined gas from Russia, Turkmenistan and Myanmar.

China pays about $8 per million British thermal units for the pipelined gas, much less than for seaborne LNG imports, according to Financial Times estimates using government data.

Fung said that earlier this year the all-important “payback period” for buyers of LNG trucks to recover their investment was one year faster than for diesel, despite the roughly 25 per cent higher price tag.

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Daimler’s China unit has downsized. A spokesperson said the company had taken the painful decision of letting go dozens of staff recently due to “continuous weak market demand”.

“The country is flooded with cheap natural gas from Russia,” Daimler Truck’s then-chief Martin Daum told Wall Street analysts in August. Sluggish truck sales and Daimler’s lack of a natural gas engine made it an “absolute catastrophic market”, he said.

Treemap chart showing China 2024 projected natural gas supply

This summer, the German company wrote off its 50 per cent stake in its Chinese joint venture with state-owned Foton Motor, which builds and sells heavy-duty trucks.

“Headquarters is far away — there is no demand for LNG engines in Europe,” said a person close to the company. “Developing one would cost millions and it’s hard to predict where the market is going.”

The growth of LNG trucking, along with the rise of electric cars, has sapped oil demand. Opec estimates that diesel accounts for a fifth to a quarter of China’s daily oil use and said demand for the fuel started falling in April.

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In July, China’s diesel demand fell almost 6 per cent from a year earlier to 3.5mn barrels a day, Opec said, adding that “increasing penetration of LNG trucks and electric vehicles [were] likely to weigh on diesel and gasoline demand going forward”. It also said the country’s property crisis was weighing on demand.

Foreign experts are at odds with domestic analysts on whether China has passed peak diesel. The International Energy Agency forecast China’s diesel demand would plateau in 2025 and peak oil would occur in 2030.

But Chinese customs data shows actual crude oil imports from January to August by volume were down 3 per cent from a year earlier. Pipeline gas and LNG imports by volume rose 12 per cent per cent in the same period.

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“In the past, I rarely saw an LNG truck come into my station,” said a fill-up attendant in Beijing. “There’s been an explosive increase since last year.”

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Emirates Invests $48M in advanced training equipment for A350 Fleet

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Emirates Invests $48M in advanced training equipment for A350 Fleet

Emirates has trained 30 pilots and 820 cabin crew members on the A350. The airline has 65 A350s and 205 Boeing 777Xs on order, supporting expansion goals. Emirates will open a 63,318 sq.ft. pilot training facility later this year, housing six full-flight simulator bays and offering 130,000 training hours annually.

Continue reading Emirates Invests $48M in advanced training equipment for A350 Fleet at Business Traveller.

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Are directors of founder-led companies being set up to fail?

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The story is familiar — the visionary founder builds a successful company from scratch but as the business matures, they obstruct effective oversight. Time and again, as another boardroom drama breaks out, independent directors wonder: can a founder-led company ever truly be governed?

The drive and boldness of these leaders is essential in the early stages of growing a business. But without proper checks and balances, an over-reliance on one individual can lead to more risk taking and poor decisions. Failure is often praised as a lesson for success but there can be huge costs. Recent turmoil at OpenAI, Tesla and WeWork highlights the complexities of balancing founder influence with the structures needed to safeguard a company’s future.

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“All founder CEOs need to think about evolving their company from founder-led to founder-inspired,” says Jason Baumgarten at headhunter Spencer Stuart. “By establishing a strong board of directors, having clear boundaries to their own roles and being aware of their outsized influence, founders have a better chance at ensuring their company can grow . . . beyond their leadership.”

Success depends on whether the founder wants this shift, rather than being forced into it by investors or regulators, he adds. Even then, they may retain control over key decisions and leadership appointments through voting rights that in effect mean they have not ceded much power at all.

Other founders may leave but still hold shares or meddle from the sidelines. Howard Schultz, who did not start Starbucks but led the aggressive expansion of the coffee chain, returned to the helm twice after stepping down and has had huge sway over the board. Peter Hargreaves, the co-founder of UK financial services firm Hargreaves Lansdown and its largest shareholder, has publicly criticised the former management for presiding over “a shambles” that hit the share price. Were their actions in the interest of the company, preserving their own legacy or about financial security?

The merits of being in “founder mode” rather than “manager mode” have gained traction online after an essay by tech investor Paul Graham. Many in this industry have celebrated founders who make quick-fire decisions and push through their vision with little room for dissent. These individuals may be inspiring and innovative but their style can make for workplaces that are toxic and often dysfunctional.

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Companies require independent boards that support and motivate founders but are willing to challenge decisions. At earlier stages this may just be a chair role and down the line a full suite of directors.

“Lots of founders are concerned the chair is going to come in and fire them,” says Rachel Ingram at Cadmium Partners, a board services firm that specialises in tech companies. “But finding a skilled chair who can support them and help scale a business can be a game-changer.” She says chairs that succeed “understand the mindset of an entrepreneur”. Those taking a more corporate view might “struggle”.

One director who sits on public and private company boards in the UK says he would think twice about joining a founder-led business, partly because egos often “limit the ability to listen to advice”.

Pippa Begg, co-chief executive of Board Intelligence, a technology and advisory firm, suggests directors do their due diligence properly and ensure their interests are aligned before joining a founder-led board. They should consider issues such as where voting rights lie and what powers directors have. For example, if a company wants to change a product line or regional focus, does it go to the board?

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Looking for clues as to how a founder has worked with the board in the past can help directors understand how their relationship might unfold. “One should be wary of a board with lots of non-executive director turnover,” says Begg. “It can be the sign of a problem in a founder-led business where the only control you have is to vote with your feet.”

She adds that staff reviews of the way a founder interacts with their team on sites such as Glassdoor can give a sense of how they will work with directors. “Do they appear curious, like to empower and delegate, or is it [a] more hierarchical ruling of the roost. The former will probably welcome input, the latter could be allergic to it”.

Spencer Stuart’s Baumgarten agrees potential directors must probe why the founder wants them. “One of the most famous founders in modern history said to us of his board, ‘I want people who are generous — someone who thinks about my company when they don’t have to, when they aren’t in a board meeting, I want their best thinking time and ideas.’” But he noted another founder had a more self-serving perspective — they wanted “mostly decent people who will not make [their] job more difficult”. “Understanding which you are potentially joining is incredibly helpful,” adds Baumgarten.

This will allow directors to decide whether it is worth entering the fray or prioritising self-preservation if they think they are being set up to fail.

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$10mn? $30mn? $100mn? The redefinition of the super-rich

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Three young men look at artworks mounted on a purple wallin a darkened room

Talk to 10 different wealth industry professionals about when you become super-rich (an ultra-high-net worth individual, or UHNW, in industry parlance) and you will get 10 different answers. For a law firm, it can mean having investable assets — spare cash not tied up in property — of $10mn; for a wealth manager, it can mean having at least $30mn; for an exclusive private members’ club, the hurdle can be as high as $100mn.

What they do agree on, however, is that the base figure is rising, and quickly. The monetary definition has shifted significantly, reflecting not just the growth in wealth globally, but also the changing expectations of what it takes to be considered part of this elite group.

David Gibson-Moore, president of consultancy Gulf Analytica, says the traditional $30mn level “allows for significant investments across multiple asset classes — stocks, bonds, real estate, private equity” — while also furnishing luxuries such as private-jet travel. But, over time, as the financial world has expanded and the accumulation of wealth has accelerated in certain sectors, particularly technology, “the bar for what it means to be ultra-wealthy has risen” he observes. “The $30mn threshold . . . doesn’t carry the same weight or exclusivity it once did. In today’s world, $30mn might secure you a luxurious lifestyle but, in the realms of the ultra-rich, it’s increasingly viewed as just the starting point,” Gibson-Moore adds.

“The ultra-rich today are being measured by new standards, with some financial commentators now suggesting $100mn is the new yardstick for anyone who wants to keep their head held high at private equity parties.”

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Charlie Wells, managing director of high-end property buying agency Prime Purchase, agrees: “The dial keeps ticking upwards when it comes to defining ‘UHNW’. Forty years ago, a millionaire with a Rolls-Royce may have been the epitome of wealth. But, thanks to inflation, the numbers are constantly growing. Only recently, someone worth £20mn-plus would have been considered very wealthy but now you need £50mn-plus to be truly UHNW.”

This shift is driven by several factors. First, says Gibson-Moore, is the explosion of new wealth in technology and entrepreneurship. “Over the past two decades, we’ve seen the rise of tech billionaires, cryptocurrency pioneers and venture capitalists who have amassed fortunes at an unprecedented pace,” he says. “The ability to build companies worth billions seemingly overnight has compressed the time it takes to reach UHNW status and these new wealth holders often operate in a different financial universe than the more traditional wealthy class.”

Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, which advises wealthy individuals on citizenships and residencies, says: “There has been a jump in wealth creation — and one only needs to look at the tech sector, where billionaires are now common. The diversification into asset classes like cryptocurrencies and NFTs [non-fungible tokens] has also created UHNW individuals almost instantaneously.”

If you take $30mn as the accepted definition for what it takes to be a UHNW, data from consulting group Capgemini shows the number jumped from 157,000 in 2016 to 220,000 last year.

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Three young men look at artworks mounted on a purple wallin a darkened room
Picture this: early price rises for digital asset classes such as NFT artworks has helped create super-rich individuals © Michael Tullberg/Getty Images

The scope of what super-rich individuals invest in has broadened, too. It is no longer just about having a diversified portfolio; today they might have stakes in disruptive tech start-ups, sustainable ventures or even space exploration. This new frontier of investment requires much larger sums of capital and comes with greater risks — but also offers the potential for exponential returns.

Inflation in luxury assets — such as property, fine art and collectibles — also means it takes far more to maintain a lifestyle traditionally associated with super-rich status. Volek says: “$30mn just doesn’t stretch as far as it did a decade ago.”

A painting by Jean-Michel Basquiat, for example, sold for $57.3mn at an auction in 2016 then again for $85mn six years later. Likewise, the price of entry into exclusive property markets such as Monaco, Mayfair or Aspen in Colorado has soared, with the average price of a house in London’s Grosvenor Square, for example, stretching to around £20mn. The costs of maintaining private aircraft, yachts and other luxury assets have similarly grown, making it far costlier to maintain the hallmarks of ultra-wealth. Experts suggest the annual running cost of a $10mn superyacht can now easily be as much as $1.5mn.

For the owners of R360, an invitation-only private members club, it is clear what the number should be to be considered ultra-rich and eligible for membership: $100mn. Barbara Goodstein, managing partner and chair of the New York chapter of R360, which offers members exclusive investment opportunities, confidential support groups and private getaways, says: “We focus on serving centimillionaires.”

She says, at that level, they get people who are “less focused on short-term investment opportunities and more interested in becoming stewards of wealth”. Goodstein notes that the $100mn threshold has been the criteria for membership at R360 since inception in 2021. “While we don’t anticipate an increase in the near future, we recognise that the average wealth of our members has steadily increased over the past few years and is now more than $400mn.”

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The age of members ranges from 28 to 84 but Goodstein adds that R360 is seeing a notable rise in younger members, “with many recently successful entrepreneurs joining in their late twenties and early thirties”.

The question that follows — irrespective of the definition — is why it is so important to the very wealthy to be classified as such. What extra doors does it open?

UHNW individuals receive significantly different treatment because of the scale and complexity of their wealth, Volek adds. “Not only do they have access to better investment opportunities and more diversified portfolios, but they also have dedicated relationship managers who look after them and are available 24/7.”

They often get access to pre-initial public offering deals, private placements and other high-return opportunities that the “broader market doesn’t even know exist”, says Gibson-Moore. For example, Stripe, a fintech payment company, has conducted several rounds of private financing, most notably raising $600mn in 2021 at a valuation of $95bn. This funding round was only available to a select group of institutional investors and the super-rich.

Lifestyle perks can vary. One of the most lavish examples seen by Samuel Wu, chief investment officer of Hong-Kong-based Tridel Capital and co-founder of Chartwell Family Partners, was a European trip given to a super-rich family by a bank in return for their custom.

“More commonly, perks include invitations to concerts, meetings with celebrities [and] successful figures as well as economic leaders,’’ says Wu. ‘‘This is a form of marketing, and these costs are often reflected in the prices being charged. One particular Swiss bank is humorously known to run its entertainment programme better than its banking.” Wu says.

On the flipside, Volek at Henley & Partners says that he also knows of banks “off-boarding” private banking clients with less than $5mn in assets because they were deemed not profitable enough to have as customers. He says it shows that size now really matters in the world of the ultra-rich and that, while the definition might still be up for debate, the level at which you can be classified as UHNW is only going one way: up.

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This article is part of FT Wealth, a section providing in-depth coverage of philanthropy, entrepreneurs, family offices, as well as alternative and impact investment

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A bit of Disraeli’s organised hypocrisy is PM’s best bet

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Robert Shrimsley’s ingenious notion of Labour’s three brains (Opinion, October 11) penetrates the paradox in each of our two major parties.

David Hare’s Labour party plays (including Absence of War) suggest the problem for Sir Keir Starmer’s party is that its main thread is social justice but every minister and member has a different view of what that should be and how to get to it. So the thread unravels.

As for the Conservatives, the British sociologist Geoff Whitty, among others, maintained that the Conservative contradiction was between belief in free markets and authoritarian central control. We have been watching this play out in the contest for leader (not to be confused with a leadership contest — one is a title the other is a quality). All of which suggests that the current prime minister’s best bet, if Labour cannot provide earnest pragmatism, is to run an organised hypocrisy; that was Disraeli’s definition of Conservative government.

Simon Crosby
Aysgarth, North Yorkshire, UK

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EGYPTAIR to offer online payments through Amazon and Banque Misr

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EGYPTAIR to offer online payments through Amazon and Banque Misr

Egypt’s national airline, EGYPTAIR, Amazon Payment Services, and Banque Misr, have established a strategic partnership to combine EGYPTAIR’s travel product with Amazon Payment Services’ range of online payment processing services, with the support of Banque Misr, to improve the online payment experience for travellers worldwide

Continue reading EGYPTAIR to offer online payments through Amazon and Banque Misr at Business Traveller.

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Zonal power pricing plan sparks industry ire

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Some of the largest trade groups in the UK have warned the government that its plans to reform electricity prices by introducing zonal or regional pricing would be burdensome to key industries rather than reducing financial pressures as intended (“UK power market reforms pose danger to industry and investment, ministers told”, Report, October 7).

The decision to back zonal pricing is based on evidence showing that such
a policy would reduce costs. The UK’s energy and gas regulator, Ofgem, found that regional pricing could benefit consumers, including industry,
by saving £28bn to £51bn across the period from 2025 to 2040. Octopus Energy has also found that businesses would enjoy a significant reduction in wholesale energy costs, and that consumers would see their bills go down.

But there is still a basic problem at the heart of zonal pricing: many energy-intensive industries have vast factories and infrastructure that cannot simply be relocated. These industries may find themselves in more expensive zones and have to shoulder the burden of high electricity costs through no fault of their own, while other businesses will be able to situate themselves in more favourably priced regions.

This is a critical time for Britain’s energy ecosystem. The UK needs to have a national conversation about its electricity supply, the grid, the nation’s industrial competitiveness and climate change — and in particular about how it can build out the grid quickly and strategically, and reform wholesale power markets.

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Mann Virdee
Senior Research Fellow in Science, Technology and Economics, Council on Geostrategy, London SW1, UK

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