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SBI report pegs GDP growth at 6.5% in Q2; sees some incipient pressure on domestic economy- The Week

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SBI report pegs GDP growth at 6.5% in Q2; sees some incipient pressure on domestic economy- The Week

India’s economy has been among the fastest growing in the world. In the previous financial year ended March 2024, it surged 8.2 per cent, exceeding estimates. Most expect the economy to grow strongly this financial year too. According to the Reserve Bank’s projections, the GDP will grow 7.2 per cent this year. However, recent data trends are presenting a mixed picture, making one wonder if a slowdown is around the corner.

“There is some incipient pressure evident on the domestic economy,” warns the latest report by the State Bank of India’s research department.

It expects India’s GDP to have clocked a growth of around 6.5 per cent in the July-September quarter, which, along with the third and fourth quarter numbers, could push the overall financial year 2025 GDP growth closer to 7 per cent.

Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser at SBI, pointed out that several high-frequency indicators signalled that aggregate demand continued to grow, albeit with a slower momentum than in the preceding quarters and painting a somewhat mixed picture.

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For instance, domestic passenger vehicle sales, which is an indicator of urban demand as well as other indicators of consumption and demand such as diesel consumption, electricity demand and bitumen consumption, have eased, he noted. But, at the same time, transport and communication indicators like passenger and freight traffic at airports and toll collection are showing traction.

SBI’s research department tracks around 50 leading indicators in consumption and demand, agriculture, industry, service, and other indicators.

The section of indicators showing acceleration declined to 69 per cent in the second quarter of FY2025 versus 80 per cent in the year-ago second quarter and 78 per cent in the first quarter of this financial year. Ghosh believes it could well be a temporary impasse with the narrative changing from the third quarter onwards.

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What will be comforting for policymakers is that rural demand is recovering, tractor sales jumped in October, rural agri wage growth accelerated in August, and two-wheeler and three-wheeler sales continue to show consistent growth, noted Ghosh.

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The report pointed out that every month in the first half of this year, rural consumer sentiment was over 100 and gradually converged to that of urban consumer sentiment.

“The recent buoyancy in rural demand/ consumption, juxtaposed against the somewhat declining urban demand/ consumption, with 85 per cent of rural indicators showing acceleration as against 73 per cent of urban indicators could be indicative of shifting contours of urban demographics, marked preferences to quick commerce outweighing consumption decisions to some extents,” he felt.

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A higher consumer sentiment in rural areas will lead to higher consumer spending, supporting rural markets, job creation and income generation, the report argued.

The SBI report reiterated that governments should refrain from policy mistakes. It continues to believe that farm loan waivers have been a “self-inflicted harakiri” that distorted the credit culture of borrowers and “not even marginally serving” the purpose in the medium to long term. Similarly, it argued that only MSP (minimum support price) driven agriculture growth is more “fiscally extravagant” and results in extreme groundwater depletion.

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John Wood shares slump 50% after announcing review of write-offs

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John Wood Group shares fell more than 50 per cent on Thursday as the UK energy engineering company announced an independent review of one of its core divisions following multimillion dollar write-offs this year.

Shares in the London-listed group, a subject of two failed takeover bids in the past 18 months, fell after it said had agreed to a review of its projects division “in response to dialogue with its auditor”. The division designs and procures for large engineering projects in sectors such as energy and mineral processing

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Aberdeen-based Wood said the evaluation, to be undertaken by Deloitte, would include looking at governance and determining if there was a need for previously reported information to be restated.

It is a blow for Wood and chief executive Ken Gilmartin, who is under pressure to prove the company can implement a turnaround plan and succeed as an independent entity after a turbulent period.

Wood announced write-offs of almost $1bn in August after deciding to exit certain types of work and recognise costs related to legacy acquisitions, pushing the company into an operating loss of $899mn in the six months to June.

“This review will focus on reported positions on contracts in projects, accounting, governance and controls, including whether any prior year restatement may be required,” Wood said. “An update will be provided as appropriate following its conclusion.”

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Wood, which employs about 35,000 on engineering and consulting projects across the world, has been struggling to turn its fortunes around after a £2.2bn takeover of Amec Foster Wheeler in 2017 saddled it with high debts and legal liabilities.

Earlier this year, the company was repeatedly pursued by Sidara, known as Dar Al-Handasah, in a bid that valued it at about £1.6bn. Dubai-based Sidara walked away in August, citing “geopolitical risks and financial uncertainty”.

It was the second potential deal for Wood to collapse in just over a year. Private equity company Apollo Global decided in May 2023 against concluding a 240p-a-share bid that valued Wood at about £2.2bn at the time, including debt. Wood is now worth about £431mn after Thursday’s decline.

The company has also come under pressure from some investors to move its listing from London, but Gilmartin rejected that and told the Financial Times in August that such a move would not solve the company’s problems.

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In Thursday’s trading update, Gilmartin said Wood had a “mixed quarter” in the three months to September despite strong growth in its operations division, which maintains and manages projects.

The projects division had a disappointing quarter after it was “impacted by delayed awards in our chemicals business and our continued weakness in minerals and life sciences”, he said. 

Group revenue for the first nine months of the year fell about 3 per cent to $4.3bn, and the company reiterated a full-year guidance of “high single-digit growth”. 

Analysts at Citi said the trading update was “below market expectations” and they “would like to see improved operational delivery”. 

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Reaction as Bank of England cuts base rate again

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UK inflation holds steady at 2.2%: reaction

Experts from across the financial service sector have been giving their reaction after the Bank of England cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.75%.

The Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted 8:1 in favour of the cut at lunchtime today (7 November), with one member voting for a hold.

It is the second time this year the MPC has opted to slash rates.

Fidelity International associate director Ed Monk, warned households may have to be more patient for borrowing costs to fall over the next year.

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“Despite the fact inflation is now comfortably below target at 1.7%, the speed of rate cuts is not expected to be as quick as it was just a few weeks ago,” he said.

“Today’s Monetary Policy Report forecasts another rise in inflation to 2.75% – back above target – over the next year.

“The Budget last week included significant spending and borrowing commitments which have resulted in a moderate increase in market interest rates, and that may also be reflected in the path for the official bank rate over the next year.

“There are some predictions that the Trump victory could result in higher rates in the US, which may then spill over to other markets, including the UK.

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“That’s less certain because it is not yet clear what a Trump second term will hold, and this is unlikely to factor into the Bank’s thinking at this stage.”

Monk said that inflation-beating interest on cash will “no doubt” have tempted some investors to move money from investments into savings accounts.

“The good news for those savers is that, despite the rate fall, cash interest is likely to exceed inflation for a while longer,” he added.

“But there are also clear signs that the path for rates – including cash interest – is falling.

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“In that context, it may be time to rebalance your allocation of cash versus investments.”

Hymans Robertson Investment Services (HRIS) Chief Investment Officer, William Marshall, said: “If a Budget the size of Labour’s had come out of the blue then we would have expected the Monetary Policy Committee to be more cautious with cutting rates.

“However, given that the Budget was heavily signposted it wasn’t enough to stop today’s rate cut.

“That being said, the extent of the size of the borrowing communicated in the Budget may have slightly surprised the MPC, given that Rachel Reeves hinted that she would not borrow for day-to-day spending (she is).

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“The consequence is that we may see a slower pace of rate cuts next year.”

Hargreaves Lansdown head of personal finance, Sarah Coles, said: “The Bank of England has delivered one more cut for the road, before it’s widely expected to shut up shop for a while and wait for the dust to settle.

“This comes as no surprise, after inflation fell below target, services inflation backed off and wage rises slowed.

“However, there’s a growing expectation that we won’t get a December cut.

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“The Bank has said for a long time that inflation will rise as the impact of energy price cuts drops out of the figures.

“However, events of recent weeks have raised the risk of additional inflation.

“More borrowing in the Budget, a higher national living wage and rises in employer National Insurance contributions, have raised concerns that inflation could make an unwelcome return.”

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German opposition leader Friedrich Merz calls for snap elections

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German opposition leader Friedrich Merz arrives at the Chancellery in Berlin on Thursday

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz has called for snap elections as early as January following the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s government, as he warned that the country could not risk a long period of political uncertainty.

The head of the conservative Christian Democratic Union on Thursday rejected the timetable set out by the German chancellor after he broke up the governing coalition — a move that marked the climax of a long-running row over how to boost growth and plunged Europe’s largest economy into political turmoil.

Merz heaped pressure on Scholz, saying there was “no reason” to wait until January 15 to table a confidence vote in the Bundestag — which meant that the earliest the snap poll could be held was March. His call was echoed by leading business figures who warned of the need for urgent action to revive the German economy.

The opposition leader said his parliamentary group, which includes the CDU’s Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union, had unanimously agreed to tell Scholz to hold a confidence vote “immediately, at the start of next week at the latest”. That would allow elections to be held in the second half of January.

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Scholz said that he wanted to work together with the CDU to push through measures to support the economy. According to a CDU official, the chancellor told Merz during a 25-minute meeting on Thursday that he aimed to stick to his proposed timetable.

But Merz said before the meeting: “We simply cannot afford to have a government with no majority in Germany over several months,” followed by a months-long election campaign and weeks of coalition building. “Things have got to happen quickly.”

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz arrives at the Chancellery in Berlin on Thursday
German opposition leader Friedrich Merz arrives at the Chancellery in Berlin for a meeting with Scholz © Filip Singer/EPA/Shutterstock

Leading business figures also warned of the dangers of more uncertainty. “In view of the global political situation and the negative developments in the German economy, we need a new, effective government with its own parliamentary majority as soon as possible,” said Siegfried Russwurm, head of Germany’s main business lobby, the BDI.

Christian Sewing, chief executive of Deutsche Bank, warned that every month of inaction risked causing “a year of missing growth”.

“Germany is facing major economic challenges,” he wrote on LinkedIn. “That is why we can no longer afford to stand still.”

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German output is expected to shrink for the second year running in 2024 amid deep problems in the car industry and the chemicals and engineering sectors. Germany’s woes risk being compounded by the re-election of Donald Trump, who has vowed to pursue protectionist policies that would strike a heavy blow to European exports.

Robert Habeck, Scholz’s Green vice-chancellor, warned on Thursday that new elections would not necessarily end the country’s political instability given the surge in support for fringe parties in recent regional elections.

He pointed to the eastern state of Saxony, where efforts to form a three-way coalition between the CDU, the Social Democrats (SPD) and far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) collapsed on Wednesday.

He insisted that the remaining SPD-Greens minority government would keep making decisions, though he conceded that he did not expect a “great willingness to help” from opposition parties on passing legislation, including on the 2025 budget.

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Germany’s long-term borrowing costs rose to their highest level since July following the collapse of the coalition, as investors priced in the possibility of more German borrowing after Scholz sacked his hawkish finance minister Christian Lindner. The 10-year government bond yield was up 0.07 percentage points to 2.46 per cent.

As European capitals were left stunned by the collapse of Scholz’s coalition just hours after the US election result, Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte voiced confidence that Berlin would “fulfil its obligations” on defence and foreign policy. Germany is the second-largest provider of military aid to Ukraine after the US. “I am not worried about that,” said Rutte as he arrived at a meeting of European leaders in Budapest.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, a former German defence minister, said the government crisis was “for Germany to discuss”.

Following the sacking of Lindner late on Wednesday, German officials announced he would be succeeded as finance minister by Jörg Kukies, the chancellor’s closest economic adviser for the past six years.

Scholz said he fired Lindner, head of the liberal Free Democrats, after he refused to suspend Germany’s “debt brake”, its constitutionally anchored cap on new borrowing, in order to increase support for Ukraine as it battles Russian aggression.

Lindner, a fiscal hawk, said altering the debt brake would amount to “violating my oath of office”.

In an emotional speech on Thursday, Lindner said he “suffered” during his three years in Scholz’s three-way “traffic-light” coalition, accusing the chancellor of being unwilling to compromise.

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In a sign of divisions within the FDP, transport minister Volker Wissing unexpectedly announced that he would resign his party membership in order to remain in his post.

Additional reporting by Raphael Minder in Warsaw and Ian Smith in London

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Thousands of households handed free energy saving gadgets that can slash energy bills by £200 a year

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Thousands of households handed free energy saving gadgets that can slash energy bills by £200 a year

THOUSANDS of households are being handed energy saving gadgets to help slash their energy bills by up to £200.

Hard-up residents in one council area in England are being gifted the “Warm Home Packs” this winter.

Thousands of household can get energy-saving gadgets this winter

1

Thousands of household can get energy-saving gadgets this winterCredit: Getty

The packs come with energy-saving devices in them such as LED light bulbs, radiator foil and draught-excluding tape.

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Wandworth Council says the packs could help residents save up to £200 on their energy bills.

The local authority has been distributing the packs since last week but you can still pick yours up if you haven’t got one yet.

The London council recently wrote letters to eligible residents and invited them to pick up their packs at the town hall.

Those who have received a letter but haven’t collected their packs yet can pick them up from four locations.

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These are: Wandsworth Town Hall Reception, Battersea Library, Tooting Library and Roehampton Library.

You should qualify for one of the packs if your household has a combined annual income of up to £40,000 and an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating between D and G.

An EPC is a report which reveals how energy efficient your property is and can be booked via the Government’s website.

You can also find out what the EPC of your home via gov.uk.

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If you haven’t received a letter from Wandsworth Council and think you are eligible for a Warm Home Pack, you should speak to staff at one of the four collection hubs mentioned above.

Cllr Judi Gasser, cabinet member for environment, said: “We know that warm homes and sustainability come hand in hand.

“These Warm Home Packs play the vital double role of keeping more money in our residents’ pockets this winter, as well as reducing the carbon footprint of individual homes by capturing energy that would otherwise be lost.”

Help you can get with energy bills if you don’t live in Wandsworth

Residents who live outside Wandsworth might be able to get help with their energy bills through a number of avenues.

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Household Support Fund

You may qualify for energy vouchers, or free money which can be put towards energy bills via the Household Support Fund.

The giant £421million pot of cash has been shared between councils in England who are in the process of allocating their portion.

Each local authority sets its own eligibility criteria which means what you are entitled to will depend on where you live.

However, most councils are making direct bank transfers or handing out energy or supermarket vouchers to those who are on a low income, benefits or vulnerable.

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The best thing to do if you think you might be eligible for help is contact your local council.

You can find what council area you fall under by using the Government’s “find your local council” tool via gov.uk.

Energy Company Obligation

You might be able to get help paying for insulation or a new more energy-efficient boiler, which in turn will drive down your energy bills, through the Energy Company Obligation.

You might even be able to get them for free depending on your circumstances.

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It’s worth noting though that you are only eligible for ECO if you are on benefits, classed as vulnerable or have a home with a low EPC.

Bear in mind, help is offered on a case-by-case basis and you may have to fund part of the works done to your home.

Energy company grant schemes

A number of energy companies hand out grants to customers who are struggling to keep up with their energy bills.

For example, British Gas recently opened its Energy Support Fund offering cash-strapped families up to £2,000 in free money.

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Octopus Energy also offers direct cash grants to customers struggling to cover the cost of their bills via its Octo Assist fund.

The firm also carries out home visits to discuss how households can reduce their usage and gives out free electric blankets.

You can read more on what some of the other firms do in our piece here.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

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BT says Budget measures will cost it extra £100mn as it cuts revenue guidance

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BT has said it will be hit by an approximate £100mn increase in costs after the UK Budget while the telecoms group also cut its revenue guidance.

Chief executive Allison Kirkby, who is attempting to make savings as part of turnaround efforts, said the near-£100mn rise in the next fiscal year was predominantly related to the reduced threshold and increased rate of employer contributions for national insurance that were announced by chancellor Rachel Reeves last week.

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Kirkby described it as “just a new inflationary pressure that we need to suffer in our business”, adding that the FTSE 100 company intended to offset all of it with “multiple levers” including accelerating its cost transformation plans, pursuing further workforce productivity measures and looking at the pricing of its products and services. She did not specify whether this meant price rises for consumers.

Kirkby told the Financial Times that she estimated the changes to NI accounted for about 70 to 75 per cent of the total cost increase, with the rest stemming from the rise in the minimum wage.

NI for employers will increase by 1.2 percentage points to 15 per cent from April and that the level at which employers start paying NI for workers will fall from £9,100 to £5,000. It was also announced last week that the national living wage would increase 6.7 per cent to £12.21 an hour from April.

BT employed 71,400 staff in the UK at the end of March.

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Her comments came as BT on Thursday lowered its revenue outlook for the 2025 financial year to a decline of 1 to 2 per cent, down from previous guidance of adjusted revenue growth of up to 1 per cent.

It said the move primarily reflected “weaker non-UK trading including reduced low-margin kit sales, along with a softer environment in [the] corporate and public sector”.

Shares in BT were down 7.8 per cent to 131p in morning trading.

The rest of the company’s outlook was reiterated as it also announced an interim dividend of 2.4p per share.

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BT reported a 3 per cent decline in adjusted revenue to £5.09bn and relatively flat adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of £2.07bn in the second quarter, compared with the same period last year.

During the group’s annual results in May Kirkby had announced an additional £3bn cost-savings programme by the end of its 2029 financial year, after completing a previous £3bn cost-savings target, and BT reported it had achieved £433mn in gross annualised cost savings during the first half of the year.

The group reported 181,000 further broadband line losses in its second quarter. It is facing competition from dozens of alternative network providers — or “altnets” — and Virgin Media O2 in the roll out of full-fibre broadband across the country.

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BT’s reported pre-tax profit dropped 10 per cent to £967mn for the six months to 30 September compared with the prior year, which it said was primarily due to lower revenue and higher costs. Net debt rose to £20.3bn, from £19.5bn at the end of March.

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Taylor Wimpey on track to meet profit expectations as it welcomes rise in demand

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Taylor Wimpey on track to meet profit expectations as it welcomes rise in demand

The firm said it was on track to complete 9,500 to 10,000 homes, while 2024 operating profit would be in line with expectations at £416m.

 

The post Taylor Wimpey on track to meet profit expectations as it welcomes rise in demand appeared first on Property Week.

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