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As Wall Street frets over the looming US presidential election, the giant asset managers are also looking at other ballot box issues: those of their investors.

Bludgeoned for the past two years by US Republicans alleging political wokeism, BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard are now gradually offering investors the chance to vote at companies’ annual shareholder meetings. This marks a significant shift as investors historically have relied on asset managers to vote for them on issues such as board directors, executive pay and various shareholder petitions.

BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink says the change will strengthen “shareholder democracy”. The firm now offers pass-through voting in more than 650 global funds totalling $2.6tn in equity assets. On October 15, State Street is starting a pilot programme that opens its first European exchange-traded fund for voting choice. And in the months ahead, Vanguard is looking to expand its voting programme that launched last year, the firm has said.

Such moves might help asset managers avert some of the criticism that has come their way as shareholder voting became intertwined with battles over issues such as climate change or workplace diversity. But voting choice is not a panacea for them.

Asset managers have typically relied on voting policies developed by proxy voting agencies, in particular the dominant duo Institutional Investors Services and Glass Lewis. And now investors at the big asset managers are being given the opportunity to vote in line with a choice of one of the thematic policies developed by the agencies.

Some curious differences in voting policies might make proxy agencies and asset managers open to more scrutiny. For example, the agencies offer Catholic faith-based voting policies with very different outcomes. When it comes to voting for board directors, ISS’s Catholic policy is stricter. The policy recommended voting against board directors in the S&P 500 index a whopping 77 per cent of the time. By contrast, Glass Lewis’s Catholic policy is more merciful. It recommended objecting to less than a quarter of S&P 500 board directors.

How could ISS and Glass Lewis come to such different outcomes based on the same religious faith?

ISS has built its Catholic voting screen in part from the US bishops policies, and considers voting against directors if a company does not have 40 per cent of its board from “under-represented gender identities”. Glass Lewis’s Catholic policy has a lower requirement of 20 per cent of board directors to be women.

“These things are not binary, black-and-white approaches. It is a bit more of a spectrum of approaches,” says John Wieck, chief operating officer at Glass Lewis. “There will certainly be a fair amount of overlap. But there could be differences,” as there are between the two advisers’ benchmark voting policies. 

Such divergence is apparent elsewhere too. Shareholder advisers also offer a policy for public pension funds. The ISS pension policy supported 80 per cent of all environmental and social shareholder resolutions. But Glass Lewis’s policy supported just 40 per cent of environmental and social issues.

Asset managers have been hesitant to say which investors are using various voting policies, or which ones are most popular. Vanguard said last month nearly half of investors offered voting choices simply deferred to Vanguard’s voting policy as usual. BlackRock says investors holding less than a quarter of the $2.6tn of assets available for voting choice have taken advantage of the programme.

Still, voting choice should prompt companies to think differently about their investor relations, says Georgia Stewart, chief executive at Tumelo, a provider of shareholder voting technology, Historically, companies simply needed to communicate with their institutional investors. But shareholder voting is starting to splinter in ways that investor relations departments have not appreciated yet, she says.

Voting choice also finally gives investors who prioritise environmental, social and governance issues a chance to take a stronger line with their votes. Some have felt frustrated that many ESG funds have shown a long reluctance to support environmental and social shareholder proposals in votes. Companies might now face more support for such resolutions.

“We are heading to an era where the end investors’ choice is king,” says Lindsey Stewart, director of stewardship research at Morningstar. Still, voting choice is unlikely to end the political problems for asset managers, ISS and Glass Lewis. Stewart adds: “A lot of political individuals and groups have these organisations in their crosshairs and I don’t think they are going to let go anytime soon.”

patrick.templewest@ft.com

SUB 3% mortgages could be on the cards as the Bank of England hints at more “aggressive” rate cuts.

It comes after a host of major lenders have made reductions to rates.

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The news follows Governor Andrew Bailey stating the Bank of England could be “more aggressive” in cutting interest rates.

Mr Bailey said that if inflation remains in check the Bank might be able to be “more activist” over reducing borrowing costs.

The comments have led several experts to bring forward predictions for interest rate cuts.

British interest rates currently sit at 5%. The rate – which is used by banks to determine the interest on mortgages and loans – was reduced from 5.25% in August.

Members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep rates at 5% at the latest vote in September, but economists are currently pricing in another reduction at next month’s meeting.

Gabriel McKeown, head of macroeconomics at Sad Rabbit Investments said: “Governor Bailey’s bombshell comments have opened the floodgates to more aggressive rate cuts, with the prospect of sub-3% mortgages, once dismissed as a pipe dream, now emerging as a tantalising possibility for homeowners.

“These views significantly depart from earlier comments advocating for gradual rate reductions, leading swap rates to fall sharply.

“Markets are now pricing in an all but certain chance of a rate cut at the Bank’s next meeting in November.”

He added that the prospect of reduced borrowing costs and increased competition in the mortgage market should help drive the rate-slashing momentum towards the end of 2024.

Elsewhere, Adam Stiles managing director at Helix Financial Partners pointed out that Skipton Building Society is already offering a sub-3% product transfer mortgage at 2.89% – although it comes with a hefty 3% fee and is up to 60% loan-to-value.

Mr Stiles told The Sun: “If the Bank of England delivers one more rate cut, which seems likely after Andrew Bailey’s hints this week, that could quickly feed through into swap rates, which determine lenders’ fixed rates.

“However, we are only likely to see sub-3% rates at lower loan-to-values. We don’t expect to see them widespread at higher loan-to-values until we have a few more rate cuts, which is possible by mid-2025.”

Dariusz Karpowicz, who is director at Albion Financial Advice, said that it’s not “unrealistic” that we’ll see rates drop below 3%.

He said: “All the signs point to it – some rates below 3%! Swap rates are falling, and Andrew Bailey is hinting at a potential decrease. The economic outlook is improving, and lenders are already trimming rates almost every week.

“It’s not unrealistic to see rates dipping below 3% for lower LTVs before year’s end. Of course, only an unexpected ‘black swan’ event could derail this positive momentum.”

What is happening to swap rates?

A swap rate is a rate based on what the markets think interest rates will be in the future.

If the rates rise, then mortgage lenders will look to increase their rates so that they don’t lose out. 

The BoE comments have had a “positive” impact on swap rates.

A number of lenders have already announced repricing and more are expected to follow suit, according to mortgage broker SPF Private Clients.

Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says: “A more aggressive approach to rate reductions has been welcomed by the markets, with swaps falling on the back of the Governor’s comments, which should feed through to even lower mortgage pricing.

“A number of lenders are already in the process of repricing – Coventry [building society]’s two and five-year fixes which top the best buy tables at 3.89 and 3.69% respectively are being pulled tonight, while HSBC is repricing downwards today and NatWest and Barclays are repricing tomorrow.

“Santander is also repricing tomorrow and is likely to top the ‘best buys’ with its new deals – a two-year purchase option at 3.84% for those borrowing 60% loan-to-value and a five-year fix at 3.68%, also at 60% LTV.”

He said the ongoing rate war among lenders is “great news” for borrowers as there are some “really compelling” deals being launched, which will go some way to helping affordability.

Different types of mortgages

We break down all you need to know about mortgages and what categories they fall into.

A fixed rate mortgage provides an interest rate that remains the same for an agreed period such as two, five or even 10 years.

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Your monthly repayments would remain the same for the whole deal period.

There are a few different types of variable mortgages and, as the name suggests, the rates can change.

A tracker mortgage sets your rate a certain percentage above or below an external benchmark.

This is usually the Bank of England base rate or a bank may have its figure.

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If the base rate rises, so will your mortgage but if it drops then your monthly repayments will be reduced.

A standard variable rate (SVR) is a default rate offered by banks. You usually revert to this at the end of a fixed deal term, unless you get a new one.

SVRs are generally higher than other types of mortgage, so if you’re on one then you’re likely to be paying more than you need to.

Variable rate mortgages often don’t have exit fees while a fixed rate could do.

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What are lenders doing?

This week five more mortgage lenders have announced cuts to mortgage rates.

Barclays, HSBC, Halifax, Santander and NatWest are all making several rate reductions across a range of mortgage deals.

It follows a recurring theme of cuts over the past few months.

Since the beginning of July, the lowest five-year fixed rate mortgage has fallen from 4.28% to 3.69%.

Elsewhere, the lowest two-year fix has fallen from 4.68% to 3.89%.

Barclays was first off the bat, announcing cuts that mainly affect first-time buyers and home movers, including some sub-4% deals for borrowers with the biggest deposits.

Its lowest two-year fix for buyers with a 40% deposit or more fell to 3.99% from today.

HSBC has implemented another wave of mortgage rate cuts.

It says all its residential and buy-to-let deals have now been reduced by up to 0.16 percentage points.

HSBC confirmed its two-year and five-year fixed mortgages for both home movers and first-time-buyers have been cut by up to 0.25 percentage points.

Its lowest five-year fix for those remortgaging with at least a 40% equity is now priced at 3.83%.

Halifax was next up to announce a cut taking place from today.

The UK’s biggest lender cut mortgage rates on selected products by up to 0.11 percentage points for home movers and first-time buyers.

Halifax also confirmed reductions of up to 0.24 percentage points for homeowners due to remortgage.

Santander and NatWest also announced a wide range of range cuts for today.

Santander’s fixed-rate deals dropped by 0.29 percentage points for home buyers and those remortgaging.

It means Santander now offers the lowest five-year fix on the market for home buyers purchasing with the biggest deposits.

All its mortgage rates for new build purchases are also reducing by up to 0.19% alongside all its buy-to-let fixed rates, which are dropping by up to 0.17%

Meanwhile, NatWest is also executing some healthy cuts across fixed-rate deals aimed at home buyers and remortgagers.

Does everyone agree sub-3% deals are looming?

In short, no. Not everyone agrees that these -3% deals are on the way.

This is largely due to positive moves being scuppered by global events and the fact that interest rates are notoriously hard to predict.

Not to mention that Labour’s first Budget is just a few weeks away.

Jack Tutton, director at SJ Mortgages told us: “If the pace of rate reductions that we are currently enjoying continues until the end of the year, sub-3% rates would be a real possibility.

“However, there are many things that could derail this optimism. The Autumn Budget will be the biggest hurdle. The decisions that the Chancellor takes will be a make-or-break moment for interest rates.”

Meanwhile, Elliott Culley, who is the director at Switch Mortgage Finance, says he believes there is a “slim” chance of rates hitting below 3%.

He said: “It would be a huge turnaround if mortgage rates were to fall below 3% by the end of the year.

“However, I would expect the chances of this happening being slim based on current domestic and world events.”

Others are pretty certain this will not be the case.

“With all the uncertainty ahead of the upcoming Budget, there is more chance of Bruno Fernandes getting Player of the Month than rates returning to sub-3%,” David Stirling Independent Financial Advisor at Mint Mortgages & Protection said.

“With Middle East issues escalating and causing volatility in oil prices as we enter winter, added to the potential tax hardships to come, it’s hard to see rates normalising below 3% this year.”

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A NEW £5.8million investment is set to drive tourists to Ireland’s smallest city thanks to a host of exciting new attractions.

Back in April, Fáilte Ireland, the National Tourism Development Authority of Ireland, announced a five-year plan to revamp Kilkenny.

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Located in County Kilkenny in South-East Ireland, holidaymakers often visit the tiny Irish city on a day trip from Dublin.

However, tourists may soon be planning to stay longer in the city thanks to the multi-million-pound development project.

The revamp will look to the city’s history, pubs and ties to hurling to promote Kilkenny as a major tourist destination in Ireland.

As part of the plan, Medieval Mile, a discovery trail in the city will be reimagined, with £1.2m being used to build the Museum of Medieval Kilkenny.

The Museum of Medieval Kilkenny will become a central point for the redevelopment of Medieval Mile and a key tourist attraction in the city.

Kilkenny’s redevelopment will also make use of the River Barrow, the River Nore, and the River Suir, also known as the Three Sisters Rivers.

The Three Sisters Rivers will become a prime place for urban and rural outdoor activity experiences – although it is not yet known that these experiences will be.

Other attractions are also being considered like a world-class creative animation visitor experience.

This visitor experience will build on Kilkenny’s heritage as a home to creative artists.

The project is being funded by Fáilte Ireland and Kilkenny County Council who will pump £5.9m into the refurb.

Earlier this year, Paul Kelly, the boss of Fáilte Ireland said: “This five-year Destination and Experience Development Plan captures the unique themes that are central to Kilkenny and features key priority projects which will transform the tourism offering across the region.

“The development of the River Barrow Tourism Masterplan, reimagination of the Medieval Mile, and building on Kilkenny’s cultural and creative heritage will strengthen Kilkenny’s position as an internationally compelling destination in Ireland’s Ancient East. 

It is not yet known when any of the attractions will open to the public.

OTHER KILKENNY ATTRACTIONS

Until the revamp is completed in five years’ time, there are still plenty of things to do in Kilkenny.

One of the main tourist attractions is Kilkenny Castle, which was built in the 12th century.

The Irish castle was remodelled in the Victorian Era and was taken over by the Irish State in 1969.

Nowadays, Kilkenny Castle welcomes thousands of visitors each year who want to see the library, drawing room, nursery and bedrooms decorated in 1830s splendour

Other attractions include St. Canice’s Cathedral and Round Tower, Rothe House and Garden and the The Black Abbey.

Beer enthusiasts will want to check out Smithwick’s Experience where they can go on a brewery tour and sample some Irish ale.

Earlier this year, plans were put forward to transform London Waterloo – the third busiest train station in the UK.

The proposals detailed new entrances, increased space on the station’s concourses and new shops and restaurants.

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As the conflict across the Middle East widens, rising oil prices are being closely watched.

The cost of oil affects everything from the price of food at the supermarket to how much it costs to fill up your car.

The price of crude oil has risen almost 10% this week to around $78 a barrel as the conflict has intensified.

That may seem like a big jump, but the price of crude oil tends to be volatile, and in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a barrel of benchmark Brent crude hit almost $130.

The uptick comes as many countries, including the UK, are just beginning to recover from the sharp rise in oil prices after the Covid pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. So how worried should we be?

Crude oil is a key ingredient in petrol and diesel, meaning higher oil prices could drive up prices at the pumps just when they’ve just hit their lowest level for three years.

If a company delivering goods, such as food, is hit by higher fuel costs, it is also likely to raise its prices. These increased costs could then be passed on by supermarkets selling the food to us, the consumer. The cost of living goes up.

“Everything we go and buy in the shop has been transported around and has been made from things that have been transported around. The increase in fuel costs tends to filter into everything,” Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec, tells the BBC.

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, which sets interest rates, has warned the conflict in the Middle East has the potential to have a “very serious” impact on the UK.

Mr Bailey said he was watching developments “extremely closely”. This comes as he signalled interest rates are on the path downwards, and the UK’s prospects on inflation – which has come down after being driven up by high oil and gas prices in 2022 – are looking brighter.

Yet so far a rise to about $78 a barrel is not the time for alarm bells.

If the “worst-case scenario” of further escalation does not materialise, oil prices are likely to “ease back quite quickly”, says Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics.

Iran is the world’s seventh largest oil exporter, with half of its exports going to China. If supplies were disrupted, China could turn to Russia.

But Ms Bain warns markets are “finely balanced”, and if the conflict escalates, “taking out a medium-sized supplier like Iran would lead to a spike in prices”.

She says there is “more than enough capacity” globally to cover the gap if Iranian production is lost, but there is the question of where Saudi Arabia’s “loyalty will lie” as the world’s second largest oil producer and whether it will increase or restrict further production.

Mr Macpherson says if Israel did decide to attack Iran’s oil sector, a rise in the price of Brent crude could increase the cost of filling up at the pumps “quite quickly”.

He explains that this scenario could threaten general inflation in the UK, which could in turn influence any decision from the Bank of England to lower interest rates.

However, he also points out “there might not ultimately be any disruption to supply” at all.

The direct impact of Iran’s oil production is not the only concern.

There is a risk that any escalation in the region could block the Strait of Hormuz, a relatively narrow channel through which a huge amount of oil tanker traffic passes -about a third of total seaborne-traded oil.

It is also the path through which a fifth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is transported, a commodity that the world has become more dependent on since sanctions were imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

Asia is most physically dependent on the flow of oil and gas out of the Persian Gulf, and the immediate impact of an escalation would be significant.

Disruption to LNG shipments from one of the world’s biggest exporters in Qatar would lead to higher gas prices – which could in turn lead to a rise in household gas and electricity bills. As with oil, gas prices filter down supply chains, affecting the cost of virtually all goods.

UK energy bills have risen 10% for this winter, but are currently predicted to fall slightly in January. This forecast could change of course, if an escalation to the conflict in the Middle East affects global gas supplies, and leads to higher prices.

But Ms Bain says the risk of strait being blocked as a result of the conflict is small.

And if it does transpire, Mr Macpherson adds the effect on the UK would be minimal, given that most of Europe’s gas is supplied mainly from Norway.

There are a lot of possible outcomes, but in terms of what will happen with oil prices in the coming weeks and months, “nobody knows”, Mr Macpherson admits.

There’s a “wide spectrum” of what could come next, he adds, but “there is really no way of telling where we will be this time next week”.

WETHERSPOONS has confirmed that 26 of its pubs have closed for good since July 2023, with five more at risk.

Pubs have closed in locations across the UK, including Stafford, London, Halifax and Penarth.

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A further five pubs have also been put up for sale, four of which are already under offer.

The Ivor Davies in Cardiff is up for sale, while the four pubs under offer are the Sir Daniel Arms in Swindon, the Hain Line in St Ives, the Foot of the Walk in Leith and the Quay in Poole.

Under offer may mean that a bid is being considered or has been accepted.

But as the sale has not been finalised the pub remains on the market.

Wetherspoons regularly reviews the branches it has up for sale and has often taken venues off the market to continue operating as part of the pub chain.

In its annual report published today the pub giant said the disposal of the 27 pubs it has closed gave rise to a cash inflow of £8.9 million.

Wetherspoons has sold the freehold of premises it owned outright and returned others to their landlords.

The pub sites sold may reopen to welcome drinkers under their new owners.

Landlords could also find new tenants, so Wetherspoons’ departure doesn’t necessarily mean the loss of a pub for locals.

The sites closed are:

• The Saltoun Inn, Fraserburgh – sold
• Widow Frost, Mansfield – sold
• General Sir Redvers Buller, Crediton – sold
• Butler’s Bell, Stafford – sold
• Coronet, Holloway Road, London – sold
• White Hart, Todmorden – sold
• Asparagus, Battersea – sold
• Mock Beggar Hall, Moreton – sold
• Sir Norman Rae, Shipley – sold
• Lord Arthur Lee, Fareham – sold
• Market Cross, Holywell – sold
• The Cross Keys, Peebles – sold
• The Regent, Kirkby in Ashfield – sold
• An Geata Arundel, Waterford – sold
• Jolly Sailor, Hanham – sold
• Millers Well, Purley, Halifax – sold
• The London & Rye in Rushey Green, Catford – sold
• Bankers Draft, Eltham – returned to landlord
• Sir John Arderne, Newark – returned to landlord
• Night Jar, Ferndown – returned to landlord
• Moon and Bell, Loughborough – returned to landlord
• Capitol, Forest Hill – returned to landlord
• Hart and Spool, Borehamwood – returned to landlord
• Alfred Herring, Palmers Green – returned to landlord
• Tichenham Inn, Ickenham – returned to landlord
• Bears Head, Penarth – returned to landlord

Wetherspoons has also opened two new sites in the last 12 months – The Captain Flinders near Euston Station and the Star Light at Heathrow Airport, and The Grand Assembly in Marlow.

A number of sites have also been expanded including the Red Lion,
Skegness; the Talk of the Town, Paignton; the Albany Palace, Trowbridge and the Mile Castle, Newcastle.

Wetherspoons, which has around 800 pubs across the UK, continues to draw crowds with ambitions openings.

A huge new £3.5million pub opened in the countryside town of Marlow, in Buckinghamshire, on September 24.

Plus, Wetherspoon opened its first pub at a holiday park at Haven’s Primrose Valley in Filey, North Yorkshire in March.

In an exclusive interview with The Sun, Wetherspoons boss Sir Tim Martin he is planning to ramp up plans to launch “Super Spoons” pubs – making existing sites even bigger.

It has recently made a big bet on giant pubs, such as its one in Ramsgate which can cater up to 1,400 punters.

And work on its “Super Spoons” in Newcastle is now underway which will include a 26-bedroom hotel and 3,000 sq ft beer garden.

Martin also exclusively revealed to The Sun that he would not be putting up prices this year in good news for drinkers.

In its annual report to for FY24 Wetherspoons reported sales of £2,036million – an increase of 5.7% on the previous year.

Like-for-like sales were up 7.6%, driven by an 8.9% increase in bar sales and a 5.6% increase in food sales.

Profit before tax saw a dramatic uptick from £42.6m in FY23 to £73.9, in FY24.

Martin has previously said he aims to have 1,000 pubs.

What is happening to the hospitality industry?

Many food and drink chains have been struggling in recent years as the cost of living has led to fewer people eating out.

Businesses had been struggling to bounce back after the pandemic, only to be hit with soaring energy bills and inflation.

Multiple chains have been affected, resulting in big-name brands like Wetherspoons and Frankie & Benny’s closing branches.

Some chains have not survived. Byron Burger fell into administration last year, with owners saying it would result in the loss of over 200 jobs.

Pizza giant Papa Johns is shutting down 43 of its stores soon.

Tasty, the owner of Wildwood, said it will shut sites as part of major restructuring plans.

How can I save money at Wetherspoons?

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FREE refills – Buy a £1.50 tea, coffee or hot chocolate and you can get free refills. The deal is available all day, every day.

Check a map – Prices can vary from one location the next, even those close to each other.

So if you’re planning a pint at a Spoons, it’s worth popping in nearby pubs to see if you’re settling in at the cheapest.

Choose your day – Each night the pub chain runs certain food theme nights.

For instance, every Thursday night is curry club, where diners can get a main meal and a drink for a set price cheaper than usual.

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Pick-up vouchers – Students can often pick up voucher books in their local near universities, which offer discounts on food and drink, so keep your eyes peeled.

Get appy – The Wetherspoons app allows you to order and pay for your drink and food from your table – but you don’t need to be in the pub to use it. 

Taking full advantage of this, cheeky customers have used social media to ask their friends and family to order them drinks. The app is free to download on the App Store or Google Play.

Check the date – Every year, Spoons holds its Tax Equality Day to highlight the benefits of a permanently reduced tax bill for the pub industry.

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It usually takes place in September, and last year it fell on Thursday, September 14.

As well as its 12-day Real Ale Festival every Autumn, Wetherspoons also holds a Spring Festival.

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Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The Middle East was set to change from the moment Hamas militants broke through the security barrier around Gaza on October 7, crossed into Israel and killed more Jews than on any day since the Holocaust. A nation’s worst nightmare was realised in the most brutal fashion. Its enemy rampaged through homes, murdering and maiming. About 1,200 people were slain; another 250 dragged back to Gaza.

Israel received wide sympathy as it reeled from its darkest day. Allies supported its right to hold those responsible to account as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war and launched a thunderous offensive against Hamas in Gaza. But there were also words of caution. President Joe Biden warned the traumatised nation to avoid Washington’s mistakes after the 9/11 attacks, when it invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. As the death toll soared in Gaza, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin cautioned that Israel risked replacing “a tactical victory with a strategic defeat” if it did not do more to protect civilians.

These friendly words of advice at a perilous moment for Israel and the region appear to have fallen on deaf ears. Traditional red lines between age-old foes have been repeatedly crossed, historical precedents rendered useless. A year of catastrophic death and destruction has followed, with tragedy layered upon tragedy.

On Monday, Israelis will mark the grim anniversary of October 7 with their country at war not just in Gaza, but on multiple fronts. Hamas is severely depleted. But it has not disappeared. Israel’s offensive has wrought unimaginable suffering, killing more than 41,000 people, mostly women and children, according to Palestinian health officials. Most Gazans have been driven from their homes as Israeli bombs have reduced swaths of the enclave to rubble. Disease and hunger stalk the population as Israel lays siege to the strip.

Dozens of Israeli hostages are still trapped in a hellish existence, their agonised families not knowing their fate. Repeated efforts to broker a ceasefire and hostage deal have failed. Israel still has no viable postwar plan as Netanyahu vows “total victory”.

The occupied West Bank, meanwhile, has endured one of its bloodiest years in decades under a barrage of Israeli military raids. Israel has dramatically escalated its offensive against Hizbollah, launching a ground assault into southern Lebanon, while wreaking havoc across the country with waves of air strikes. More than a 1,000 Lebanese have been killed and 1mn displaced.

Hizbollah erred in beginning to fire rockets into the Jewish state from October 8, ostensibly in solidarity with Hamas. Its attacks forced 60,000 Israelis from their homes and fed Israeli fears that it faced an existential threat from Iran and groups it arms and backs. There was, however, no evidence that Tehran — long a malign force in the region — was involved in Hamas’s attack. Today, Israel’s escalation against Hizbollah, including assassinating its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage at Israel, have pushed the region to the brink of a long-feared all-out war.

The Biden administration has repeatedly called for de-escalation, the crisis underling its position as the only power with the diplomatic heft to douse the flames. But it has also exposed its impotence in reining in Netanyahu and his far-right allies. He remains defiant, but his country looks increasingly isolated, its government facing accusations of committing genocide in Gaza.

Twelve months of conflict have left Israel no more secure, its people still traumatised, and the region around it in pain and in flames. Israel’s allies have long understood that the path to lasting security for the Jewish state involves a peaceful settlement with the Palestinians, rather than a forever war. Sadly, Israel, under Netanyahu, has lost faith in the promise of coexistence and in the counsel of its friends.