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Should China investors hold their breath for a Beijing bazooka?

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President Xi Jinping’s economic planners are in sharp focus after an anticipated fiscal stimulus announcement on Tuesday failed to materialise, disappointing investors and curbing a historic rally in Chinese equities.

Expectations had been mounting that an initial round of monetary easing measures that targeted China’s depressed stock and property markets last month would be followed by fiscal spending to help encourage businesses and consumers to spend.

But the lack of further detail has left many investors and economists wondering how Beijing intends to dispel the gloom over the world’s second-largest economy.

What happened on Tuesday?

Zheng Shanjie, chair of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s economic planning agency, held a highly anticipated press briefing in Beijing, where he promised accelerated bond issuance to support the economy, front-loading about Rmb200bn ($28bn) from next year’s budget for spending and investment projects.

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He also hinted at measures to stabilise the property sector, boost capital markets and fuel the “confidence” to achieve China’s economic growth target this year of about 5 per cent.

But the announcements left many investors nonplussed. Stock gains on the Hong Kong and Chinese bourses fizzled, with the Hang Seng index suffering its worst single-day fall since October 2008. The mainland CSI 300, which had soared more than 33 per cent over the past month, opened 5 per cent lower on Wednesday.

Did investors misread signs that a bazooka was coming?

The NDRC was unlikely to be the vehicle for a major stimulus announcement. A powerful state organ, it is more focused on implementation and oversight than central policy formation.

Rory Green, head of China research at TS Lombard, said there might have been an overestimation of Beijing’s immediate plans for broader fiscal stimulus following a late September politburo statement vowing stronger support.

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He said the monetary stimulus, which was unveiled by the People’s Bank of China, was “pretty underwhelming” and did not reflect a change in approach to “growth by any means”. He added: “I think they’re still in the framework of stabilising rather than re-accelerating.”

Xu Zhong, head of China’s interbank market regulatory body and an influential commentator, warned investors on Tuesday not to misread the PBoC’s announcement as evidence of the central bank buying shares.

He also raised concerns about leveraged funds buying into stocks, a major feature of China’s 2015 stock market bubble. Many market watchers said Xu’s warning might have helped take the heat out of the market frenzy.

Are there signs a fiscal package is on its way?

Despite the lack of new detail from the NDRC, many observers remain hopeful that more substantive plans will be unveiled in the coming weeks. 

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The commission said it was “co-ordinating with relevant departments to expand effective investment” and “fully implement and accelerate” the steps outlined by the politburo, a tone HSBC analysts said was “constructive”. They added that another “window for action” beckons when the National People’s Congress standing committee meets towards the end of October.

Goldman Sachs analysts also said “any large stimulus package may require joint efforts from many key ministries”, pointing to ad hoc meetings by the finance ministry, housing regulator and politburo, one of the Chinese Communist party’s top leadership groups.

China’s finance minister will hold a press conference on Saturday focused on strengthening fiscal policy, the government announced on Wednesday.

CreditSights analysts warned, however, that while it was “too early to rule out any additional fiscal stimulus”, the scale “may fall short of market expectations”.

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What might a fiscal package look like?

Market participants have proposed a wide range of estimates, from as low as Rmb1tn to as high as Rmb10tn.

A reasonable base case, according to Citi, is about Rmb3tn this year, composed of Rmb1tn to make up for the shortfall in local government revenue, Rmb1tn for consumption-led growth and Rmb1tn to help recapitalise banks.

Green said that while refunding China’s large banks was not “particularly necessary”, it could be a beneficial step if those funds flowed into the country’s stock of thousands of smaller banks, many of which are struggling to cope with a long-running property crisis.

Nicholas Yeo, head of Chinese equities at Abrdn, stressed that the critical issue remained “not the lack of credit but the lack of demand”, highlighting that to have any lasting positive impact, any fiscal stimulus needed to result in stronger consumption.

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Would it be enough to help the Chinese economy?

For much of the past four years, investors and Chinese residents have been hoping that Xi’s administration will prioritise economic growth. But it remains unclear whether fiscal stimulus can restore confidence after the damage wrought by the pandemic, the property sector meltdown and Xi’s reassertion of party control over the business landscape.

Aaditya Mattoo, World Bank chief economist for east Asia and the Pacific, said long-standing structural problems, such as a rapidly ageing population and limited social protection, were compounding the pain of falling property prices and slowing income growth, compelling Chinese households to save rather than spend. Such problems are unlikely to be addressed by the size or scope of the anticipated fiscal stimulus.

Beijing’s hesitation to do more, many analysts said, also partly reflects concern over the need to conserve firepower for a bigger stimulus if Donald Trump, who has threatened higher tariffs on Chinese exports, wins the presidency in next month’s US election.

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“I do think there is some caution around the Trump factor and whether they need to be gauging the risk of a massive trade war starting next year,” Green said.

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Israel and Hizbollah clash near Lebanese border

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Israeli troops and Hizbollah fighters clashed near the Lebanese border in the early hours of Wednesday, a day after Israel carried out one of its largest waves of air strikes on southern Lebanon since the conflict erupted a year ago.

Israeli air strikes pounded targets across Lebanon on Tuesday and overnight, including in southern Beirut, as its invading ground forces attempted to push into the south of the country and fought battles with Hizbollah fighters embedded in the rugged terrain.

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Videos shared on social media showed soldiers raising the Israeli flag in the border village of Maroun al-Ras where fighting had taken place in recent days. It is not clear if the Israeli troops remain there. Hizbollah said it had fired rockets at soldiers south of the village on Wednesday.

The Iran-backed militant group said overnight that its fighters had confronted Israeli troops trying to “infiltrate” the border village of Blida after targeting them with an explosive device. Hizbollah also said its militants fired rockets and artillery shells, forcing the retreat of Israel Defense Forces trying to advance near Labbouneh in the south-west.

Israel said at least three soldiers were wounded in the fighting this week, as its ground offensive swelled to four combat divisions — as many as 20,000 troops at maximum strength. The Israeli army is breaching the border in at least four locations after launching its invasion last week, with each division probably supporting each point of entry, an Israeli official said, declining to provide more details.

While much of the direct fighting between Israeli troops and Hizbollah fighters continues to be limited to an area close to the border, the Israeli air force has carried out a large series of co-ordinated air strikes concentrating on southern Lebanon but extending into the Bekaa Valley, the IDF said.

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Hizbollah has responded by firing projectiles into northern Israel and as far south as Haifa, a commercial and cultural hub. A handful of rockets were also launched towards Tel Aviv this week.

The IDF said it had tracked 180 “projectiles” crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory through late Tuesday night, including a major barrage at Haifa during a defiant video address by Hizbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem, who said the group’s military capabilities remained intact despite Israel’s escalating offensive in recent weeks.

Israeli bombardment has decimated the command structure of the group, including killing Hassan Nasrallah, its top leader.

The air strikes on Tuesday were the second-largest wave of attacks since Israel dramatically intensified its air campaign against Hizbollah in Lebanon late last month, two Israeli officials said, as it focuses on a large bank of targets identified by military intelligence.

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That wave of bombings, which began around September 20, eventually included nearly 5,000 air strikes over several days, according to a Financial Times tally.

Israeli strikes have killed more than 2,100 people over the past year and forced about 1.2mn from their homes, mostly in the past two weeks, according to Lebanese authorities.

Tuesday’s bombings were aimed at more than 125 “significant targets”, the IDF said. Dozens of underground structures for at least three Hizbollah military units were destroyed — killing at least 50 Hizbollah operatives — as were 30 different locations involving Hizbollah rockets, the IDF said.

Israel has said its Lebanon offensive is aimed at securing its northern border area to allow about 60,000 Israelis to return to their homes, after a year of exchanging cross-border fire with Hizbollah. The Lebanese group had started firing rockets towards Israel in support of Gaza a day after the October 7 2023 Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel.

IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said late on Tuesday after the air strikes had mostly concluded that the Hizbollah fighters killed had been trained to infiltrate the border to “murder and abduct Israeli civilians”.

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Martin Lewis issues warning for 28million households to ‘act ASAP’ and save on energy bills as suppliers pull deals

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Martin Lewis issues warning for 28million households to 'act ASAP' and save on energy bills as suppliers pull deals

MARTIN Lewis has issued a warning to millions of households who could slash their energy bills.

Last week, the energy price cap jumped from £1,568 to £1,717 a year.

Martin Lewis is urging households to switch to a fixed energy deal and beat the price cap hike

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Martin Lewis is urging households to switch to a fixed energy deal and beat the price cap hikeCredit: Rex

This means that bills have risen by 10%, and the average household bill is up by more than £12 a month, or £149 a year.

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However, Martin Lewis said: “Last week, the energy pants price cap, which dictates the rate eight in 10 homes in Eng, Scotland and Wales pay, rose by 10%

“Yet, for now, the deals you can compare and switch to are far cheaper.

“That’s why last week I called the current cap a pants cap, as, stay on it, and you’ll miss out on savings.”

Around 28million households are on standard variable tariffs, which are affected by the price cap, according to Ofgem.

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However, there are several fixed energy deals that beat these tariffs.

The founder of MoneySavingExpert.com said: “A fix gives you peace of mind that the rate won’t change for a set time.

“Currently, a host of one-year fixes hugely undercut the price cap.

“Yet world turmoil has hit oil prices, and there’s potential knock-on to energy prices, so we’ve already seen three of last week’s cheapest fixes pulled and replaced with more expensive ones.”

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EDF Energy also pulled the cheapest fixed deal on the market on Monday.

I used quick Martin Lewis tip to claim back £600 – the money was in my account within four days

Those who signed up for the Essentials Fixed 1Yr Oct25v3 tariff were promised savings of £163 a year.

As a result, Martin added: “So for the short term, the mood music seems to say fixing ASAP is the safest route.”

The cheapest fixed deal available right now can still save the average household £162 a year.

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How do fixed deals work?

Fixed deals work to protect customers from bill hikes if Ofgem were to increase the price cap in the future.

Customers on their supplier’s standard variable tariff see their energy prices change every three months, as these are tied to Ofgem’s price cap.

However, those who lock into a fixed energy deal are charged the same gas and electricity rates throughout the contract’s term.

Of course, doing so carries a slight risk of you paying more than those on the standard variable tariff if Ofgem’s energy price cap were to fall within your deal’s term.

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The price cap is reviewed every three months in Oct, Jan, April and July, and can go up or down depending on what’s happening in the wholesale energy market.

Since October 1, those on the standard variable tariff (SVT) have had their rates capped by Ofgem at the following levels:

  • 5.48p per kilowatt hour (p/kWh) for gas
  • 22.36p per kWh for electricity
  • A standing charge of 31.66p per day for gas
  • A standing charge of 60.99p per day for electricity
  • For a typical household that uses an average of 11,500kWh of gas and 2,700kWh of electricity every year, these rates will cap bills at roughly £1,717 .

As this is only an estimate for a typical household, if you use more energy, you’ll pay more.

But if you’re offered a fix that’s cheaper than October’s price cap, it’s always worth considering.

How can I check future price cap predictions?

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EDF Energy has launches a brand new Ofgem price cap prediction tool on its website.

The energy company updates the tool with new information about changes to the cap on energy prices every Tuesday.

It also includes advice on how this affects your energy tariff choices.

You can find out more by visiting edfenergy.com/gas-and-electricity/price-cap-predictions.

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Which suppliers are offering the best-fixed deals?

Outfox the Market is currently offering the cheapest deal on the open market right now.

Its Fix’d Dual Oct24 v5.0 tariff costs a typical household £1,555 a year.

This means it is £162 cheaper than Ofgem’s October price cap.

It comes with a £25 exit fee per fuel or £50 if you lock in with a dual fuel tariff.

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British Gas‘ The Fixed Tariff v5 tariff matches the Outfox the Market deal, but it comes with a £50 exit dee per fuel.

Octopus Energy’s 12M Fixed October 2024 v1 costs £1,566 a year – £151 less than Ofgem’s October price cap.

This deal also comes with no exit fees, so customers can ditch and switch suppliers at any time.

Remember to always compare prices before switching, as energy tariffs vary widely, and costs differ depending on where you live.

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Outfox the Market, Ovo Energy and British Gas fixes are available to those with or without a smart meter.

What are the alternatives?

Customers unwilling to commit to long-term fixed energy deals may want to consider flexible tariffs.

Kara Gammell, personal finance expert at comparison site Money Supermarket Group, says: “These will almost always be at or below the price cap.”

For example, E.ON Next‘s Pledge variable tariff offers a fixed discount of around three per cent on the price cap rates for 12 months.

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It will save the average household around £50 a year but comes with a £50 exit fee if you switch before the year ends.

The deal is available to both new and existing customers.

EDF Energy’s Ensure Tracker works in a similar way and offers a £50 discount off the price cap’s standing charges for 12 months.

For a bigger reward but at a higher risk, Octopus Energy offers two variable tariffs which track wholesale gas and electricity costs.

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Customers on the Octopus Tracker see their prices change daily, but unit rates have remained consistently lower than the price cap in recent months.

The Agile Octopus tariff works similarly to the Octopus Tracker, but the main difference is that the former’s prices change every half hour.

Remember that those wishing to switch to any of these tracker tariffs must have a smart meter.

What energy bill help is available?

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THERE’S a number of different ways to get help paying your energy bills if you’re struggling to get by.

If you fall into debt, you can always approach your supplier to see if they can put you on a repayment plan before putting you on a prepayment meter.

This involves paying off what you owe in instalments over a set period.

If your supplier offers you a repayment plan you don’t think you can afford, speak to them again to see if you can negotiate a better deal.

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Several energy firms have grant schemes available to customers struggling to cover their bills.

But eligibility criteria varies depending on the supplier and the amount you can get depends on your financial circumstances.

For example, British Gas or Scottish Gas customers struggling to pay their energy bills can get grants worth up to £2,000.

British Gas also offers help via its British Gas Energy Trust and Individuals Family Fund.

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You don’t need to be a British Gas customer to apply for the second fund.

EDF, E.ON, Octopus Energy and Scottish Power all offer grants to struggling customers too.

Thousands of vulnerable households are missing out on extra help and protections by not signing up to the Priority Services Register (PSR).

The service helps support vulnerable households, such as those who are elderly or ill, and some of the perks include being given advance warning of blackouts, free gas safety checks and extra support if you’re struggling.

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Get in touch with your energy firm to see if you can apply.

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Marriott adds The Link Seoul to Tribute Portfolio

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Marriott adds The Link Seoul to Tribute Portfolio

New hotel opening in Seoul’s Sindorim district

Continue reading Marriott adds The Link Seoul to Tribute Portfolio at Business Traveller.

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Is it possible to sustainably satisfy the world’s hunger for fish?

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Is it possible to sustainably satisfy the world's hunger for fish?

You can enable subtitles (captions) in the video player

So, Susannah, what problem are we mulling over today?

Can we solve our overfishing problem and sustainably satisfy the world’s hunger for fish? According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, or the FAO, in 2020 the International Trade of Fisheries and Aquaculture Products was worth around $150bn. But the FAO now classifies a third of the world’s fishery stocks as overfished, which means they’re being fished beyond sustainable levels.

So what can be done to combat overfishing? Firstly, fishing subsidies which incentivise overfishing are a huge problem. Now, these are subsidies from governments for things such as fuel, fishing gear, and new vessels. An academic study from 2019 estimated that these government payouts to the fishing industry totalled around $22.2bn.

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There has been some progress in limiting subsidies, especially those that end up supporting unregulated fishing. In June 2022, the World Trade Organisation agreement on fishery subsidies was signed. The goal in mind is to prohibit subsidy support for illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing, and limiting fishing of overfished stocks. But it’s only due to come into force when two-thirds of WTO members ratify it. That means that 110 countries have to ratify it. But as of the 1st of July of this year, only 78 countries have done so.

So what other measures could we be looking at? Firstly, we could be doing more to protect essential predator species. For example, it’s estimated by the WWF that one third of shark species face extinction. Predator species like sharks play a crucial role in the ocean ecosystem and food chain.

Next, to avoid bycatch, the FAO has suggested placing the top end of fishing nets two metres lower in the water. Now, this has been shown to effectively reduce the mortality of marine mammal bycatch by 98 per cent in places like the Indian Ocean. Finally, the growth of aquaculture, which is fish farmed in pens or ponds, could ease some of the pressure on wild stocks.

Today, more than 50 per cent of the fish that we eat is farmed. Of course, these measures that I’ve been speaking about come with their own challenges. If we take aquaculture, for example, critics say aquaculture’s practises for sourcing feed harm food security in poorer countries. That’s because it hoovers up small species of fish, which the local communities rely on for food in order to make fishmeal for the aquaculture farms.

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Another huge challenge facing authorities is simply the sheer number of fishing boats in the world, many of which are unregulated. Now, according to the FAO, illegal or unregulated fishing accounts for some 20 per cent of what’s caught, or around 26mn tonnes of fish every year. Regulating fisheries has always been a highly political issue. But no matter how difficult the problem of overfishing is to solve, it cannot be ignored.

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Editor’s View: If financial advice is so rewarding, why don’t more people know about it?

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Editor's View: If financial advice is so rewarding, why don’t more people know about it?
Tom Browne – Illustration by Dan Murrell

If there’s one thing that consistently worries the financial advice sector, it’s the looming capacity crunch.

The statistics are well known: a recent Investec survey found 49% of financial advisers and planners intended to retire within the next five years, while 35% aimed to retire by age 50. And this is only the latest in a long line of such findings.

So, why aren’t these numbers being replaced? Again, it’s a familiar story: in some cases, young people see financial advice as not relevant to them, as something “stuffy and old-fashioned”, in the words of the LIBF’s John Somerville.

These initiatives are a great starting point, but they should act as a spur for a much bigger push

Others may feel, incorrectly, that they lack the necessary skills. Or they are put off by the routes to qualification, seeing them as arduous and expensive. Or the advice firms themselves are reluctant to invest in new talent.

But the overwhelming problem is a lack of awareness. According to the CII’s Claire Bishop, “Often, it’s just not something that’s on the radar of people at school, university or college.” The same is true for careers advisers.

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This is despite the opportunities financial advice offers in terms of role diversity, opportunity, location, salary and self-employment. It is a sector that suits a wide range of talent and abilities; as Bishop puts it: “There’s an assumption that it’s all about maths. And it’s not. It’s about helping people and understanding people.”

All of the schemes agree that collaboration is vital

And, while no one would describe it as an easy profession, research last year by Dynamic Planner revealed that nine in 10 advisers under 30 would recommend financial advice as a career. There aren’t many other professions that could make that claim.

So, it’s time the sector pulled together and did more to promote itself. If financial advice is so rewarding, why don’t more people know about it? And, if everyone in the profession is agreed that we have a problem, why not collaborate more on the solutions?

Fortunately, there are plenty of initiatives out there that are doing just that. This month’s cover feature highlights four of them: CII’s virtual work-experience programme with Springpod; the New Talent Alliance; The Verve Foundation’s ‘We Are Change’ initiative; and Future Financial Adviser.

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In some cases, young people see financial advice as not relevant to them, as something stuffy and old-fashioned

All of these are promoting opportunities to young people and assisting them on their journey. All of them are helping to push financial advice into the spotlight. And all of them agree that collaboration is vital.

However, we need to do more. These initiatives are a great starting point, but they should act as a spur for a much bigger push.

So, if you know of a project that is addressing the adviser gap, or you have any thoughts that aren’t addressed in our feature, we’d love to hear from you!

Tom Browne is editor of Money Marketing. Contact him at: tom.browne@moneymarketing.co.uk

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This article featured in the October 2024 edition of Money Marketing

If you would like to subscribe to the monthly magazine, please click here.

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Just how rich are Arab rulers?

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It’s no secret that Gulf autocrats control serious cheddar. A (paywalled) report out this month attempts to estimate quite how much.

Totting up the available numbers, Global SWF reckon the Gulf Cooperation Council’s ruling families control around $6.8 trillion of assets. That’s two whole Apples! Click through the chart below to see how this breaks down by state, category and fund:

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What do these funds even do with $6.8 trillion? It turns out, at least four things.

First, they diversify their economies beyond the expected life of the reservoir of hydrocarbons upon which the region floats.

Second, they project soft power internationally. Think football, golf, media, universities, maybe even the capture of international professional elites through butlering gigs.

Third, buy garish bling and stroke rulers’ giant egos.

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Lastly, they own pretty much everything in touching distance. According to the report, Gulf SWFs own every one of their national champions across every major industry. State capitalism at its most obvious (high-res here):

But it’s not just champions. They also own most of all stocks listed in GCC.

The report’s authors combed through the share registers of each of the 877 companies listed in the region and found that 68 per cent of the Abu Dhabi market cap is owned by local SWFs and royal family offices. In Saudi, a full 77 per cent of the market is owned by PIF and the state. For the GCC overall, 70 per cent of market capitalisation is ultimately state-owned.

Admittedly, much of this is owing to the outsized prominence of the Saudi market in the region, and the outsized prominence of the almost wholly state-owned Aramco. But still:

Hang on, is this a chance for another marimekko moment?!

Despite owning so much of their listed markets, GCC authorities have still made some efforts to get outsiders interested in their stocks. These efforts have had mixed results.

Norway’s $1.7 trillion mega-SWF NBIM divested all its Saudi stocks in 2021. And Norway’s largest domestic pension fund KLP dumped GCC stocks on human rights concerns in 2023. Sweden’s giant pension fund AP7 blacklisted Saudi Aramco — which makes up around a quarter of the region’s market cap — at the start of the year, although this didn’t stop Saudi from selling $11.2bn of stock over the summer, albeit at the bottom end of the range and at a 6 per cent discount to the market. And despite its phenomenal share price growth, IHC (which constitutes around a third of Abu Dhabi’s ADX exchange market cap) mostly just perplexes international investors.

But passive investors? They’re much more enthused. Or, at least, they’ve found their money poured into the region following choices made by the index providers to whom they’ve outsourced investment decision-making. MSCI’s decision to include UAE and Qatar (in 2014), Saudi (in 2019), and Kuwait (in 2020) to its indices has meant anyone committing cash to a MSCI EM or MSCI ACWI tracker fund is buying stocks in the region.

The BIS noted that MSCI and FTSE’s admission of Saudi stocks to their indices in 2019 coincided with foreign equity flows into the country that exceeded those heading to India and China. And MSCI themselves calculate that foreign investment in Saudi stocks has more than quadrupled from $23.5bn to $97.5bn since their index inclusion decision was made.

Somewhat unusually, the study includes Royal Private Offices — a category of state-controlled assets we haven’t seen analysed before. These account for a cool $0.5tn, or about half a Berkshire Hathaway, which sounds maybe less impressive. Almost $350bnof these assets are run for the UAE’s ruling Al Nahyan family alone. But as the authors note:

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This group of entities, led by Abu Dhabi’s Royal Group and all its subsidiaries, is even more opaque than SWFs … links to the royal families can make the boundaries between SWFs and RPOs blurry at times.

Given that GCC states are overwhelmingly absolute monarchies, it’s probably not worth getting too hung up over the distinction.

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