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Sub-postmasters won’t get payouts by March, says minister

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Sub-postmasters won't get payouts by March, says minister
EPA Post Office sub-postmasters stand with a Justice For Sub-Postmasters Alliance banner in their fight for justice in central LondonEPA

Sub-postmasters impacted by the Horizon IT scandal will not all receive compensation payments by March next year, the government’s Post Office minister has said.

Gareth Thomas said it would be “difficult” to achieve such a deadline, after calls from former sub-postmaster and campaigner Sir Alan Bates.

Sir Alan urged the government to set a March 2025 deadline to pay financial redress for all the sub-postmasters involved in the initial legal action against the Post Office which uncovered the scandal.

Thomas said he agreed with Sir Alan that faster progress on compensation payments to all victims was needed.

“I wish I could commit to Sir Alan’s time frame,” he told BBC Breakfast, adding: “I think we will have made substantial progress by next summer.”

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Sir Alan has been heavily critical of the length of time it is taking for victims of what has been described as the biggest miscarriage of justice in British legal history to receive financial redress.

Between 1999 and 2015, more than 900 sub-postmasters were wrongly prosecuted after the faulty Horizon IT accounting system made it look like money was missing from branch accounts.

Some sub-postmasters ended up going to prison, while many more were financially ruined and lost their livelihoods. Some died while waiting for justice.

Sir Alan leads the Justice for Sub-postmasters Alliance, campaigning for financial redress for the 555 victims who took part in the landmark group legal action against the Post Office that culminated in 2019.

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Their compensation was, however, swallowed up by the huge legal costs involved in bringing their case.

The government went on to set up a specific compensation fund involved in the Group Litigation Order (GLO) to give these sub-postmasters the redress like others affected, but progress has been slow.

Last month, Sir Alan said the Department for Business appeared to be trying to get away with paying out as little as possible to victims while maximising the income for the legal firms involved.

He questioned whether the government was dragging the “issue out to exhaust victims until their deaths” and if the scheme has become a “gravy train” for its lawyers.

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A total of £265m has been spent on lawyers relating to the Post Office scandal from 2014 to 2024.

Sir Alan said said the March deadline was needed for the GLO redress as it was three years since that particular compensation scheme was announced.

‘Keep holding feet to fire’

Post Office minister Thomas, who was appointed following Labour’s general election victory, told the BBC: “I agree with him, [Sir Alan] we need to make faster progress.

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“We are trying to unblock the blockages and speed up the process of compensation,” he added.

“There are four compensation schemes in place, two of which the government runs, and two of which the post office runs. I have looked at whether we should just start afresh but that would lead to further delays in getting money out of the door.”

Deadlines for payments have previously been ruled out for fear that some sub-postmasters might be timed out of claiming compensation.

There isn’t a single compensation scheme for sub-postmasters to apply to and eligibility is dependant on the circumstances of an individual’s case. The four main schemes are aimed at groups of victims who had different experiences of the scandal.

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According to the latest government figures, external, 201 of the eligible 492 sub-postmasters in the GLO scheme have received their payments in full.

Of the hundreds of members of the GLO group, 63 had criminal convictions and therefore are not eligible for this scheme but they are eligible for other compensation – depending on how their convictions are being overturned.

Sir Alan has said he would be prepared to go back to court if “excuses” were made around further delays to financial redress, adding he would be meeting with new law firms to discuss the matter.

Thomas, the Post Office minister said: “My message…to him [Sir Alan] is keep holding our feet to the fire.”

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Letter: Perhaps what the UK needs is a reboot?

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Banker all-nighters create productivity paradox

From Raj Parkash, London W4, UK

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Farmers’ climate insights deserve more attention

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Another well-researched article about global agriculture (“The global power of Big Agriculture”, The Big Read, August 22). Yet when it comes to the actual farming and farmers there is a woeful lack of understanding and knowledge.

Yes, the well-funded lobbies (just as in Brussels) are all-powerful. But they are the commodity suppliers and traders and international actors with shareholders to satisfy. Farmers are subject to uncertain weather, volatile prices, byzantine regulatory systems and greedy interfering national governments.

As with coverage of climate, FT journalists seem to be only half informed. Farmers themselves are mainly poorly represented. Farming is an absolute necessity for life and the net zero-related emissions quoted for agriculture are always wildly wrong and remain scientifically unproven.

Geordie Burnett Stuart
Peterhead, Aberdeenshire, UK

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Talk of windfalls from Fed rate rises is misleading

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The FT analysis “US banks gain $1tn windfall from Fed’s era of high rates” (September 23) and, its assertion that the two and a half year era of Federal Reserve rate rises produced a “windfall” for US banks, falls short of what readers expect from the FT.

Banks’ core business is taking in deposits that are subject to changes in short-term interest rates and then lending to consumers and businesses at terms that ­are customised to serve their funding needs. How this calculation applies bank by bank depends on whether a bank is asset-sensitive or liability-sensitive, and the FT’s analysis (which was never fully shared with readers) completely misses this critical aspect of banks’ business decision-making and consumer choice.

Depositors — both consumers and businesses — have a variety of investment vehicles, and they do not exclusively choose banks for high rates. For example, investors can buy Treasuries at rates closer to the federal funds rate, but this may require them to lock their funds in without the flexibility of withdrawal upon demand. Banks provide security, convenience and accessibility of deposits, and depositors who value these elements over the rate make their decisions accordingly.

Ultimately, using the loaded language of “windfalls” obscures the choices businesses, consumers and banks make in a market environment. For example, during the Covid-19 pandemic and the two-year period of zero interest rate policy, the FT’s flawed methodology reveals that depositors received approximately $56bn in “excess” interest on savings.

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We didn’t see the FT reporting on that “windfall” for consumers because it would have painted an inaccurate picture. The same is true here.

Sayee Srinivasan
Chief Economist, American Bankers Association, Washington, DC, US

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Starmer’s task is to fix the government machine

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Robert Shrimsley (“The state isn’t fit for Starmer’s purpose”, Opinion, September 27) is correct in his analysis.

The failings of the machinery of government have surprised prime ministers before — as Tony Blair’s chief of staff said: “When you arrive in No 10 and pull on the levers of power, you discover they are not connected to anything.”

The expertise of experienced professional management, in the delivery functions of government, is not recognised by politicians. Yet delivery is carried out by huge organisations: the Department for Work and Pensions employs 94,000 people and the National Health Service 1.3mn.

This lack of experienced management is the cause of low labour productivity in the public sector. It decreased by 8 per cent between 1997 and 2022 while it increased by 27 per cent across the whole economy, and it is the reason why the 17 major efforts to reform government since the Fulton Report in 1968, and the 25 initiatives to reform the NHS since 1990, have all failed.

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The Thatcher and Blair governments both realised the importance of management expertise across government — but only late in their terms, so their reforms did not gain traction. If the current prime minister can put a focus on effective management first, he will find that much good will follow.

Patrick Barbour
Director, Effective Governance Forum, London W4, UK

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Connected cars pose real risks

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When you are driving in your car, are you in a public or private space? As carmakers race to make electric cars into smartphones on wheels, the lines have started blurring. 

Internet-connected intelligent cars are on the roads in many countries, with remote car access an increasingly common feature. In some cities in China, driverless taxis are already available. But with convenience follows concerns over who has access to our driving data — and ultimately our cars.

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The Biden administration sees Chinese cars and technology as a national security threat that could spy on drivers and as an economic threat, and has moved to ban Chinese connected-car software. Beijing has previously accused the US of using “national security” concerns as an excuse to act against Chinese companies. Indeed, the economic implications of such a ban on software are clear: it would in effect keep Chinese EVs out of the US. Current tariffs on Chinese EVs are easy enough to circumvent by shifting production bases. But given the scale of personal data that is expected to be gathered from connected cars — not just those made in China, but by automakers globally — the latest proposed ban should not be brushed off as just another trade spat. It raises important questions about privacy and safety for drivers around the world. 

As EV sales grow, cars are increasingly becoming software-defined vehicles — that is, any car that uses software to operate and add upgraded functionality. Around 97 per cent of all EVs are internet-connected.

Connected intelligent cars offer many benefits. Safety features such as anti-collision systems, real-time data analysis and advanced sensors mean faster reaction times and fewer accidents. Autonomous driving functions help provide mobility for elderly drivers. Carmakers upgrade cars using over-the-air updates. Connected cars using better routes can mean fewer traffic jams, reducing emissions.

Chinese EV makers are leading the race. Development times for new models have been about 30 per cent quicker than legacy peers. More than 60 per cent of new energy vehicles sold in China this year had advanced driving-assist features, according to industry data

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Take Apollo Go, the robotaxi arm of Chinese internet group Baidu. Its cars can handle most driving situations independently without a driver. More importantly, Baidu has brought costs down significantly, with its latest sixth-generation robotaxi costing less than half its previous model at about $28,500.

Getting to this point, however, has been costly. Baidu started investing billions from its autonomous driving fund in 2017. Its self-driving project has required years of testing and is still lossmaking. Chinese EV maker BYD is set to invest $14bn in areas related to autonomous driving to catch up. Local peer Nio, a leader in autonomous driving software, also remains lossmaking despite growing sales.

That means some global automakers in a rush to catch up on intelligent driving software, or lack the funds to develop their own, may start to turn to software that includes Chinese technology. Without that option, carmakers risk falling behind on innovation and a lucrative market — the market for robotaxis alone is expected to exceed $25bn globally by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs. By 2027, it forecasts partially autonomous cars, which require driver supervision, are expected to be about 30 per cent of global new car sales. For buyers, affordable EVs may become further from reach as development costs rise.

As cars are such an integral part of life for many of us, the potential risks are amplified — perhaps more so than with any other product. For carmakers to provide remote assistance and upgrades after the sale, and for self-driving functions using cameras and sensors, cars must be connected in real-time. Improving software also requires extensive data collection. That means that there will be a risk — however small — that a connected car could be affected by a cyber attack or data breach. Functions could be accessed remotely, affecting driver safety. Sensors can be manipulated to detect false objects on the road. A hacked self-driving car could even be turned into a weapon. 

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The race towards smarter, self-driving cars is starting to outpace discussions on privacy, cyber security risks and regulation. Closing trade borders might mean depriving some countries of the latest innovations. But until governments find the balance of risk and reward it may be worth taking the slow road.

june.yoon@ft.com

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Cooling UK labour market brings down wage growth

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The cooling UK labour market is continuing to bring down wage growth, according to new data that will help to reassure the Bank of England that price pressures are easing.

The median pay award in the private sector fell from 4.4 per cent in the three months to July to a two-year low of 4.1 per cent in the three months to August, according to new figures published on Wednesday by Incomes Data Research.

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A pick-up in public sector pay growth meant the median award across the economy as a whole remained stable — a rise of 4 per cent.

Zoe Woolacott, senior researcher at IDR, said the public sector was “currently in the catching-up phase, after a lengthy period in which pay awards lagged behind those in the private sector”. But she added that if inflation fell further, “pay awards are likely to follow it, eventually”.

IDR’s figures corroborate similar data published by the research group Brightmine last week, which showed most annual pay awards were bunched around the 4 per cent mark in the three months to August, with fewer employers handing out bumper payouts.

Sheila Atwood, content manager at Brightmine, said this was due not only to the recent fall in inflation, but also reflected a weaker labour market where “the number of under- or unemployed individuals is starting to outpace the number of job openings”.

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The BoE is keeping a close watch on these indicators of pay growth, as well as on official earnings data and its own business surveys, as it seeks to gauge how far inflationary pressures in the economy are easing.

UK inflation held steady at 2.2 per cent in August — far below its 2022 peak above 11 per cent and close to the BoE’s 2 per cent target. But services price inflation has edged up and this week’s increase in regulated energy prices means headline inflation is also likely to rise at the end of the year.

The BoE left interest rates unchanged last month, after August’s cut to 5 per cent, with governor Andrew Bailey arguing that for inflation to stay low, “we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much”.

The more hawkish members of the Bank’s monetary policy committee worry that the pandemic and energy crisis might have triggered a lasting change in the way the UK labour market behaves, with workers able to bargain harder against a backdrop of staff scarcity, and businesses better able to pass on costs to consumers.

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Line chart of Median basic pay award reported to IDS by employers, rolling 3 month period showing UK pay growth is falling on the back of lower inflation

Official data shows that UK average earnings growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 5.1 per cent in the three months to May — down from last year’s peak, but still well above recent norms.

However, the labour shortages that fuelled wages over the past two years have now dissipated. Adzuna, the job search engine, said last week that competition for jobs was at its highest level in three years, with more than two jobseekers for every vacancy after the number of jobs advertised in August fell 17.5 per cent compared to a year earlier.

Tony Wilson, director at the Institute for Employment Studies, said that with competition for jobs “returning to more normal levels” and employers “filling their jobs pretty quickly”, this “should give the Bank of England a bit more confidence on future interest rate cuts”.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday that there was “significant room for private sector pay growth to normalise now that price inflation has fallen” but that it was still likely to remain above long-run averages, with public sector wage growth also set to remain firm on the back of recent pay deals.   

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