Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown! With 12 days to go, let’s talk about:

Democrats are betting that Republicans’ hardline stances on abortion will work in their favour and help tip the scales towards Kamala Harris and her party in down-ballot races. [free to read].

When the US Supreme Court struck down the national right to obtain an abortion by overturning Roe vs Wade in 2022, a profound anger set in among pro-choice voters — and especially young women. And running on abortion rights supercharged Democratic victories in the 2022 midterms.

This November, almost a dozen states, including the battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada, will have abortion measures on the ballot. This comes after voters in reliably Republican states such as Ohio and Kansas opted to codify abortion rights over the past two years.

Meanwhile, Republican officials have pushed for increasingly strict restrictions on the procedure at the state level. More than 20 states have laws limiting abortion earlier in pregnancy than the foetal viability standard set by Roe, including 13 states where the procedure is now banned in almost all circumstances — including for victims of rape and incest. Some lawmakers and judges have taken this further by calling for limiting access to contraception and fertility treatments.

Opinion polls have consistently shown that most Americans identify as pro-choice. And though Harris and Donald Trump are deadlocked in battleground polling, women across the country back the vice-president by a 14-point margin.

Jessica Mackler — president of Emily’s List, which works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights — told the FT’s Lauren Fedor that the issue was already shaping voter choices:

The question is not: will abortion drive votes in this election? It is: how far, how wide and how deep does that impact go?

In every district that we are in, in every state that we are in, this is the issue that is driving the Democratic coalition in a really remarkable way . . . Where abortion is on the ballot in any form, it is a driver of wins for Democrats.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• The US Department of Justice warned Elon Musk’s America Pac that its $1mn giveaway might be illegal.

• During a CNN town hall, Harris said she considered Trump a fascist, and pointed to his own former chief of staff, John Kelly, who also said the former president met the definition. (CNN)

• After Trump’s campaign accused the UK Labour party of interference in the US election, party officials said it paid for one of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s top aides to attend the Democratic National Convention, but denied that he advised Harris’s campaign.

• The dollar has hit its highest level since August, as investors bet on the growing likelihood of a Trump election victory.

• In a political gamble, the vice-president will campaign tomorrow in Texas, a Republican stronghold, as she makes reproductive rights a central pillar of her final pitch.

Behind the scenes

2024 has proven to be the TikTok election, as the platform emerged as the main online battleground between Harris and Trump.

To broaden Harris’s reach when she took over the top of the Democratic ticket, her campaign hired what it described as a pack of “feral 25-year-olds” to make viral videos and courted content creators by inviting them to White House events and the DNC.

Harris’s TikTok strategy is “aspirational for any brand, let alone a politician” Lara Cohen, head of creators at LinkTree, which has worked on get-out-the-vote initiatives, told the FT’s Hannah Murphy.

Harris’s campaign account, KamalaHQ, has attracted 1.5bn views compared with her rival’s 1bn. And she’s posted far more — 851 videos versus the former president’s 41.

Yet as she’s lost momentum in recent weeks, she’s lost ground in the TikTok battle, too. Data shared with the FT by social media intelligence platform CredoIQ found that conservative content has been more likely to go viral on the platform than progressive posts since the vice-presidential debate.

CredoIQ founder Ben Darr told Hannah that there had been an uptick in pro-Trump creators criticising the Biden administration’s hurricane relief efforts in the wake of two devastating storms, Helene and Milton, which could be contributing to the shift.

But as Jerrica Rowlett, assistant professor of communication at Bryant University in Rhode Island, said:

We’ll have to see if they can maintain the hype until November . . . it’s the internet age. Attention spans are short.

Datapoint

Trump now has the edge over Harris on the US economy, according to a new Financial Times poll, suggesting the vice-president has failed to win over voters on their top issue as they begin to cast their ballots.

The former president has significantly improved his standing, and more voters trust him to handle the economy compared with Harris [free to read]. A total of 44 per cent of registered voters backed Trump on this question compared with 43 per cent for Harris, according to the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll. 

It’s the first time our poll has found Trump to have an advantage over his rival on the economy. Last month, 44 per cent of voters said they trusted Harris versus 42 per cent for Trump.

The final FT-Michigan Ross poll before election day also found that a higher percentage of voters said they’d be better off under Trump’s economic policies: 45 per cent of voters think this, up from 37 per cent in September. Meanwhile, 37 per cent said that they’d be better off under Harris. 

Despite the erosion of economic trust in Harris, the poll suggested some of her message was resonating: 49 per cent of voters said she better represented middle-class interests compared with 37 per cent for Trump. Voters also overwhelmingly said he better represented the interests of wealthy people and large corporations.

Viewpoints

Financial planners need to get better at articulating their value to clients, Attivo regional director Louise Barraclough has insisted.

At Money Marketing Interactive in Leeds today (24 October), she said advisers should think about where the value of their advice is for clients.

“As planners, we absolutely need to believe our value,” she said, suggesting this is the “biggest thing in this profession that we lack”.

“It’s not just enough to believe value,” she added. “We need to articulate value way before the client asks us to demonstrate it.”

Barraclough said that, to some degree, she can understand why advisers tend to “hide behind regulations” because “sometimes that’s an easy thing to do”.

However, those in financial-planning roles have a great deal of power over clients’ lives.

“The decisions that you help your clients make today don’t just impact the next year, they don’t just impact the next 10 years,” she said. “The impact extends to the next generation.”

Barraclough also suggested people often do not fully understand the difference between financial advice and financial planning.

“One of the questions I’m frequently asked is, ‘Which is best?’ The truth is, both are important, and both have a place in today’s world.

“You will all act as coaches, mentors and planners for your clients, but at some point, you’ll also need to give them advice on their investments

“This is the foundation of any financial plan.”

She said the challenge arises when a client approaches a planner for a purely transactional relationship and they try to shift that client straight into a financial planning relationship. “That’s where friction can occur.”

“Demonstrating value is often about recognising where your client is on their journey, meeting them at that point, and then guiding them through financial planning done well.”

She said the planner essentially becomes the “flight attendant” in a client’s financial life, “ensuring their comfort and safety”.

“The past few weeks have proven this,” she said. “And the next few will prove it even more. With the Budget being a hot topic, you’ll be dealing with that for sure.”

During her presentation, Barraclough urged advisers to “treat every client as a human being”.

“But,” she added, “you can take it a step further and treat each one as though they are your only client.”

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The writer is chancellor of the exchequer

The Budget next week will deliver on the promise of change. That change will be driven by this government’s number one mission — to deliver sustainable growth after a decade and a half of stagnation.

But growth can only be built on stable foundations. So my first and most important job next week at the despatch box is to turn the page on years of instability and uncertainty which have — for far too long — deterred investment and undermined business confidence.

That is why my fiscal rules are so important: they will be the rock of stability at the core of my Budget. They will set the basis for stable fiscal policy, prudent management of day-to-day spending and responsible investment for growth.

But sustainable growth does not come from short-termism. It comes from a responsible, long-term plan to invest in the future and improve living standards.

That involves addressing three challenges.

First, the £22bn black hole in the public finances we discovered when arriving in government, the vast majority of which will persist into future years. Second, the compensation for those who have suffered so much because of the infected blood and Horizon scandals, which was announced by the previous government, but not budgeted for. Third, the state of the UK’s public services, which cannot survive a return to the austerity that has done so much damage over the past 14 years — including by holding back growth.

To address this, my fiscal rules will do two things. The first and most important: my stability rule will mean that day-to-day spending will be matched by revenues.

Given the state of the public finances and the need to invest in our public services, this rule will bite hardest. Alongside tough decisions on spending and welfare, that means taxes will need to rise to ensure this rule is met. I will always protect working people when I make these choices, while taking a balanced approach.

Crucially, my stability rule will also cover the interest on our national debt and unlike the previous government I won’t cut capital budgets to make up for shortfalls in the day-to-day running costs of departments.

My second fiscal rule, the investment rule, will get debt falling as a proportion of our economy. That will make space for increased investment in the fabric of our economy, and ensure we don’t see the falls in public sector investment that were planned under the last government.

We will invest alongside business, through expert bodies like the National Wealth Fund, multiplying the impact of public money. And I will invest wisely — we won’t just increase investment, we will also invest differently. We won’t repeat the costly mistakes of the past.

A new set of institutions will focus on ensuring value for money and a strategic plan to deliver infrastructure, a combination of the National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority, who will clear the way for the delivery of infrastructure, and the Office for Value for Money will rigorously scrutinise spending.

This will be matched with a new set of standards with a focus on transparency, backed by robust auditing by the National Audit Office.

These fiscal rules, and the guardrails I put around them, will help us build the decade of renewal we promised, while providing the stability we need to support investment.

I am in Washington today and will be making the case for investment in Britain. The IMF has been clear that weak investment and low productivity are holding back growth. 

We need to change that and the investments we will make in the UK will boost productivity, enhance the green transition and deliver the infrastructure we need to grow.

At my Budget next week, I will show that we have a choice between investment and decline.

I am choosing to invest in Britain so we can turn the page on 14 years of slow growth and start making the country better off.

This is the only way we will change Britain — by drawing a line under the chaos and bringing back growth on stable foundations so that all parts of the country can prosper. 

A ‘WINTER Wonderland for adults’ will be opening later this month with a host of games, live music and a huge arcade.

The Winters of the World will run for two weeks in Finsbury Square in London, with a variety of attractions, activities, entertainment and food on offer.

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Talking to the Sun Travel Team, the attraction’s owners have described it as an “indoor Winter Wonderland for adults”.

Guests will arrive and be greeted with a glass of prosecco and canapes before being led to a reserved area where they can order drinks like winter-themed cocktails.

Drinks include house cocktails, beer, house wine, house prosecco, house single spirit mixer and soft drinks.

Visitors can go head-to-head in a series of winter games like Eisstock (the Bavarian version of curling) and Jingle Balls (a festive version of bowls).

Retro arcade games themed around snow sports like skiing and a virtual motorbike ride will also be at the attraction, with each visitor being given one token.

The venue will have a dance floor featuring live musical performances from DJs and bands.

Alpine-inspired food, which has been created by Michelin Star chefs like Tom Kemble, will also be served at the attraction.

Canapes include mushroom arancini (balls of fried rice), cured salmon and dill Crème Fraîche Blinis and vegan crostini.

Meanwhile, mains include burgers, Teriyaki Chicken, Miso Salmon, Teriyaki Tofu and steak and chips.

The Winters of the World will be open from December 2, 2024, until December 20, 2024.

It will be open from 12pm until 11pm every day between those two dates, catering for groups of 10 people up to 750.

Visitors can choose between several packages, with the Whistler Package coming in cheapest.

Whistler Packages start from £49 and include one hour of games, three drinks, a main meal, reserved seating and live entertainment.

Levi Packages start from £75 per person and include an additional glass of prosecco, canapes and a three-hour reserved seating area.

The Val D’Isere Package is the most expensive package, with tickets starting from £125 per person.

This package includes all six drinks, winter arcade game tokens and a reserved area for five hours as well as all other entertainment.

Set in Finsbury Square, the site is accessible from several tube stations in London like Moorgate, Old Street, Liverpool Street and the Barbican.

There are plenty of other festive attractions coming to the UK later this year, including London’s Winter Wonderland.

The winter attraction will run for six weeks in the capital’s Hyde Park

After a break from Winter Wonderland last year, the rollercoaster Wilde Maus XXL will make its return in 2024.

Munich Looping, the world’s largest transportable rollercoaster, will also be part of this year’s lineup.

Other rides include the Aeronaut Starflyer, the Hangover and the Euro Coaster.

The Magical Ice Kingdom is back for another year, but this time with a brand-new theme: Alice in Wonderland.

 Winter Wonderland will run for six weeks from November 21, 2024, until January 5, 2025.

It will be open from 10am until 10pm every day between those two dates, excluding Christmas Day.

What’s it like to visit London’s Winter Wonderland?

The Sun’s Travel reporter Hope Brotherton visited London’s Winter Wonderland last year, here’s what she thought…

THE smell of deep-fat fried batter wafts through the air, and bright, sometimes flashing, lights can be seen in every direction.

A mixture of pop songs and Christmas jingles also compete for some attention, which means I can only be in one place – London‘s Winter Wonderland.

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It’s a sprawling maze of high-octane rollercoasters, funfair rides, wooden stalls, food vans, and other activities.

While there’s no real way to explore the festive attraction, I made a beeline for the Magical Ice Kingdom.

Last year’s theme centered around Norse Mythology but I’m equally excited to see the Alice in Wonderland-themed ice carvings at this year’s attraction.

For me, another one of Winter Wonderland’s highlights was the Real Ice Slide – a 35m slope.

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Despite being over in seconds, the Real Ice Slide was a true rush of fun.

Another one of Winter Wonderland’s highlights is the Giant Ferris Wheel, where park-goers are treated to spectacular views of both the park and the London Skyline.

Journeys on the Ferris Wheel last around 15 minutes, making it well worth the wait.

No trip to Winter Wonderland is complete without riding at least one rollercoaster – and I opted for Munich Looping, the world’s largest transportable rollercoaster.

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I gave several other rides a go, including the Haunted Mansion and the Traditional Wave Swinger.

I also had a good wander through the wooden market stalls, and I watched as other park-goers won prizes on one of the many funfair games.

In the mean time, here is Butlin’s ‘ultimate Christmas holiday weekend’ launching this year.

And here are some affordable December city breaks you can still book.

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A MAJOR supermarket has slashed its Christmas tub prices to just £2.50.

Cheaper than Aldi or Tesco – the offer makes this the most cost-efficient place to purchase Christmas chocolate boxes.

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From October 25 to October 27, Asda customers can bag this sweet deal – but there is a catch.

Customers have to be signed up for the Asda rewards programme.

The offer is part of Asda’s Rewards Mega Event weekend, where shoppers can save more than 50% on festive favourites like Quality Street, Cadbury Heroes, Cadbury Roses, Celebrations, and Swizzels.

Normally priced at 2 for £9, Asda has cut the cost to just 2 for £5 – meaning each tub costs just £2.50, making it the best price around for stocking up on festive treats.

Shoppers will need to download the Asda Rewards app to take advantage of this offer.

Coupons for the discount will appear in the app’s ‘wallet’ section from Friday, October 25.

To claim the deal, simply scan the coupon at the till, and your discount will be applied.

But be quick – once the weekend ends on October 27, so does this massive discount.

Asda’s Rewards Mega Event isn’t just about chocolates.

Its loyalty program allows shoppers to earn “Asda Pounds” on their everyday purchases, which can be converted into vouchers for money off future buys.

Deals on household products and cosmetics also earn Asda Pounds, boosting savings even further.

How to get the best deal

While this weekend’s deal on Christmas tubs is unbeatable, it’s always worth comparing prices to make sure you’re getting the best deal.

Ocado is currently selling the same 600g tubs for £5, while Tesco and Sainsbury’s are listing them at £6.

Morrisons is offering 2 tubs for £6, and Aldi has dropped prices to £3.89 per tub.

However, Asda’s 2 for £5 offer blows all competitors out of the water so for those wanting to get ahead of the festive rush, now’s the perfect time to stock up and save money.

Prices listed above reflect today’s prices, October 24, and are subject to change all the time.

Just because something is on offer, or is part of a sale, it doesn’t mean it’s always a good deal.

How to save money on chocolate

We all love a bit of chocolate from now and then, but you don’t have to break the bank buying your favourite bar.

Consumer reporter Sam Walker reveals how to cut costs…

Go own brand – if you’re not too fussed about flavour and just want to supplant your chocolate cravings, you’ll save by going for the supermarket’s own brand bars.

Shop around – if you’ve spotted your favourite variety at the supermarket, make sure you check if it’s cheaper elsewhere.

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Websites like Trolley.co.uk let you compare prices on products across all the major chains to see if you’re getting the best deal.

Look out for yellow stickers – supermarket staff put yellow, and sometimes orange and red, stickers on to products to show they’ve been reduced.

They usually do this if the product is coming to the end of its best-before date or the packaging is slightly damaged.

Buy bigger bars – most of the time, but not always, chocolate is cheaper per 100g the larger the bar.

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So if you’ve got the appetite, and you were going to buy a hefty amount of chocolate anyway, you might as well go bigger.

There are plenty of comparison websites out there that’ll check prices for you – so don’t be left paying more than you have to.

Most of them work by comparing the prices across hundreds of retailers.

For example, Google Shopping is a tool that lets users search for and compare prices for products across the web. Simply type in keywords, or a product number, to bring up search results.

Another tool is Price Spy, which logs the history of how much something costs from over 3,000 different retailers, including Argos, Amazon, eBay and supermarkets.

Once you select an individual product you can quickly compare which stores have the best price and which have it in stock.

Idealo is another website that lets you compare prices between retailers.

All shoppers need to do is search for the item they need and the website will rank them from the cheapest to the most expensive one.

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Rachel Reeves has confirmed she will change the UK’s fiscal rules in her Budget next week as she seeks to fund about £20bn a year of extra investment with increased borrowing.

Writing in the Financial Times, the UK chancellor said her “investment rule” would ensure Britain avoided “the falls in public sector investment that were planned under the last government”.

Under plans drawn up by the Conservatives, public sector net investment had been due to fall from its current 2.4 per cent of GDP to 1.7 per cent by 2028-2029. This amounted to an annual £24bn cut by that year, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has calculated.

“I won’t cut capital budgets to make up for shortfalls in the day-to-day running costs of departments,” Reeves wrote.

In her effort to fund the investment drive, the chancellor is planning to include government assets in the UK’s measure of debt as she seeks to have debt falling as a proportion of GDP in five years’ time.

Reeves is set to adopt a gauge called “public sector net financial liabilities” (PSNFL), according to people briefed on Budget discussions.

The gauge is a broader measure of the public balance sheet that includes financial assets such as student loans.

The change would give Reeves space to borrow an additional £50bn a year by the end of the decade and still have debt falling, under the Treasury’s March forecasts.

The £50bn figure is likely to change with new forecasts in the October 30 Budget and Reeves is not expected to access all of the potential borrowing, the people said.

Markets are watching closely as they try to gauge how much extra borrowing Reeves and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will attempt.

The Labour government is under pressure to improve Britain’s creaking public services and infrastructure at a time when the tax take is at its highest for decades.

The UK’s 10-year borrowing costs rose slightly on Thursday, despite a fall in bond yields in other big economies, after the Guardian earlier reported that Reeves would use the PSNFL gauge.

Yields on 10-year gilts were trading at 4.23 per cent, up from 3.75 per cent in mid-September, partly because of anxiety over greater borrowing.

In her FT article, the chancellor recommitted to getting “debt falling as a proportion of our economy”, which she has said would happen between years four and five of the official forecast, around the end of the decade.

She also pointed to “guardrails” that would ensure prudent spending, including new oversight bodies.

Jeremy Hunt, Reeves’s Tory predecessor, was hemmed in by his main fiscal rule to have debt falling in five years’ time according to a fiscal measure called “public sector net debt”, which reflects a much narrower range of assets.

He met the rule while funding pre-election tax cuts in part by pencilling in steep post-election reductions in capital spending.

Former Conservative Treasury minister Andrew Griffith said Reeves’s plan to change her borrowing rules meant she was “breaking promises like a runaway horse charging through jumps at the Grand National”.

Before the general election she had pledged she was “not going to fiddle the figures or make something to get different results” and that “we will use the same models the [then Conservative] government uses”, he said.

The chancellor’s room for manoeuvre will remain hemmed in by another fiscal rule that she sees as the real binding constraint at this Budget: a commitment that day-to-day government spending must be covered by tax revenues.

“Given the state of the public finances and the need to invest in our public services, this rule will bite hardest. Alongside tough decisions on spending and welfare, that means taxes will need to rise to ensure this rule is met,” Reeves wrote in the FT.

Reeves is aiming to close a £40bn funding gap, largely through tax rises, in day-to-day spending to meet this aspect of her fiscal rules, the FT previously reported.

The chancellor is in Washington for her first set of IMF/World Bank annual meetings. She will tell her counterparts that her first Budget will invest in the “foundations of future growth” as she sets out how public investment can boost science and technology, clean energy and better infrastructure.

The IMF on Wednesday called on the UK to protect public investment as it urged the country to find ways of accelerating growth.

“The last thing you want to cut from the viewpoint of short-run economic activity and medium and long-term growth is public investment,” said Vitor Gaspar, the IMF’s director of fiscal affairs.