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The Fed’s first rate cut in 4 years

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This is an audio transcript of the FT News Briefing podcast episode: ‘The Fed’s first rate cut in 4 years

Sonja Hutson
Good morning from the Financial Times. Today is Thursday, September 19th and this is your FT News Briefing. The Fed made quite a statement with its first rate cut. And the UK’s financial watchdog wants to give savers a little pick me up. Plus, exploding pagers and walkie-talkies across Lebanon showed just how vulnerable Hizbollah really is.

Mehul Srivastava
And where this to have happened, say, during wartime, it truly would have crippled Hizbollah because you need to communicate with your colleagues far away.

Sonja Hutson
I’m Sonja Hutson, and here’s the news you need to start your day.

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates yesterday for the first time in four years and it was a big one half a percentage point. Fed Chair Jay Powell said that the US economy is in a good place and this rate cut is going to keep it that way.

Audio clip of Jay Powell
More specifically, the economy is growing at a solid pace, inflation is coming down closer to our 2 per cent objective over time, and the labour market is still in solid shape.

Sonja Hutson
I’m joined now by the FT’s US economics editor Colby Smith to unpack all this. Hi, Colby.

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Colby Smith
Hi, Sonia.

Sonja Hutson
So half a percentage point is a pretty sizeable cut. How significant is this move?

Colby Smith
So it’s pretty significant. I mean, in the past, what we’ve seen from the Fed is that they opt for these larger decisions. When we’re in a period of acute economic or financial stress, that’s when they deviate from the traditional quarter-point pace. But this time around, we heard a different argument from chair Powell. This wasn’t about responding to weakness. This was about preventing that weakness from coming to pass. So he sees a labour market that’s still on very solid footing as inflation has come down. He said he didn’t really see signs that there is a downturn under way. But this cut is kind of a recalibration of policy in light of incoming data and the fact that they don’t want to fall far behind the curve when it comes to their policy response.

Sonja Hutson
OK. So even if Powell doesn’t view this as a sign that there are cracks starting to form in the economy, is there evidence to support that? I mean, should people be a little bit worried about this sizeable decrease?

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Colby Smith
So I don’t think necessarily people have to be worried about the size of the decrease. But I think it’s important to talk about the risks on the margins to the labour market and some of the signs of cooling off that we’ve already seen. For instance, on any metric of labour market demand, those have been softening, whether it’s from the number of vacancies that companies are posting to the hiring rate in general on a month-to-month basis. Those have all cooled quite significantly. But if you are a little bit more optimistic about the outlook, you might point to the fact that unemployment claims they remain low, lay-offs are also low. And the real question is, is do these kind of marginal signs of weakness do they worsen into some broader sign of a downturn? And that’s the big open question. And that’s why we saw the Fed move as aggressively.

Sonja Hutson
And what did Powell say about how we can expect the Fed to cut rates going forward?

Colby Smith
So he was a little bit less committal about that. One of the features of the September meeting is that we get new estimates from officials that kind of aggregates their individual view on the economy. And so in this thing called the dot plot, what we did see was over the course of the year, inclusive of the September move, they expect rates to fall by a full percentage point. And then looking into 2025, they expect rates to fall by another percentage point. So this is the start in a series of cuts for sure.

Sonja Hutson
Coby Smith is the FT’s US economics editor. Thanks, Colby.

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Colby Smith
Thank you.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Sonja Hutson
The UK’s financial watchdog is pressuring banks to give customers a little boost to their savings. So basically, if you have money sitting in a savings account, your bank probably pays you some interest on it. And the Financial Conduct Authority has rules that say when interest rates are higher, your bank should give you a higher return on your money now that interest rates are falling. It seems like the FCA is worried that banks will cut savings rates faster than they should. And if that happens, the regulator is threatening to fine those lenders.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

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How did someone turn thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies into small bombs? That’s what a lot of the world is asking after these old-school devices exploded across Lebanon over the last few days, killing dozens of people. Hizbollah, whose members carried the devices, has promised to retaliate. The militant group blames Israel for at least some of the attacks. My colleague Mehul Srivastava has been following the aftermath of the blast. He joins me now. Hi, Mehul.

Mehul Srivastava
Hello.

Sonja Hutson
So let’s start with the pagers that exploded on Tuesday. What do we know about how they went off?

Mehul Srivastava
So we don’t know exactly why and how. But there’s a rough theory that’s falling into place and the theory goes something along these lines, which is that when Hizbollah started buying pagers to hand out to different members, at some point, somebody from the Israeli espionage services, the Mossad or the military intelligence actually gonna handle these shipments before they landed in Lebanon and during that period were able to swap out a few components and maybe do a little bit of malware installation on the pagers themselves, and most importantly, insert a small explosive charge in there. And at some point Tuesday, around 3:30 in the afternoon, almost all of these pagers received a single alert which caused them to explode simultaneously. And it’s very clear, nobody’s proven this. This is something that’s been alleged. But Hizbollah has made it very clear that they think Israel has done this.

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Sonja Hutson
Well, how could Israel have gotten its hands on these pagers?

Mehul Srivastava
An operation of this size leaves behind a large room with clues for people to sift through and put it on social media. And very quickly after the explosions happened on Tuesday, you were able to identify from the remnants of these devices, and most of them came from a single company in Taiwan called Apollo Gold. And it turns out that they had at some point licensed that brand to a small company in Budapest. And it isn’t clear whether these devices were manufactured in Taiwan or manufactured licensed somewhere in Europe, whether they were intercepted and when they got to Lebanon. But at some point in the last few months, it’s clear that somebody in Lebanon placed an order for a large number of these pagers to come in. And those are the same ones that exploded.

Sonja Hutson
Yeah, that’s something that I was wondering about, actually. Why is Hizbollah turning to things like pagers in the first place? I mean, this is really antiquated technology.

Mehul Srivastava
Yeah, it really is. I mean, one of the issues was that it’s well known that the Israeli military intelligence units have well and truly infiltrated communications networks around its regional rivals. And earlier this year, Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah had begged his followers to give up their smartphones because smartphones with their GPS and their cameras and their recording abilities, give away a large amount of information that would give away Hizbollah’s intentions and plans. At that point, it appears around like 5 or 6 months ago that Hizbollah started importing this large batches of pagers and then later on started importing a larger walkie-talkies also, which we’ve seen on Wednesday, had started exploding around Lebanon also.

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Sonja Hutson
So how is Hizbollah responding to the attacks?

Mehul Srivastava
I mean, Hizbollah is clearly furious about this, but it’s also humiliated because it shows that something as important as the communications between itself and its military members and other members of what is essentially a very powerful militia not only can be compromised in terms of surveillance, but can be turned into a weapon that either disables or kills a large number of its members. And where this to have happened, say, during a war crime, it truly would have crippled Hizbollah because you need to communicate with your colleagues far away. And they’ve gone from cell phones to pagers and from pagers to walkie-talkies. It’s not quite clear what comes after walkie-talkie other than going completely analogue in the way some of other Israel’s enemies have done.

Sonja Hutson
Mehul Srivastava covers cyber security for the FT. Thanks, Mehul.

Mehul Srivastava
All right take care.

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[MUSIC PLAYING]

Sonja Hutson
For any Brits listening, I know you just love complaining about American chocolate, which is like fair. But the tables might be turning. There is a global shortage of cocoa and London warehouses have gone through a lot of the good quality beans. What’s left is what one former commodities rep called a poison pill. About a quarter of the remaining beans are more than three years old, so that might leave a little bit of a bitter taste in your mouth.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

You can read more on all these stories for free when you click the links in our show notes. This has been your daily FT News Briefing. Check back tomorrow for the latest business news.

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How the EU can reset foreign policy for the western Balkans

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Steven Everts makes numerous important and laudable points on the need for the EU to seriously recalibrate both its capacities and posture in foreign policy (Opinion, September 12).

It’s worth adding that in a foreign policy area on the bloc’s very borders, the EU has led the west into a dead end of failure, in which official pronouncements have never been more at variance with the on-the-ground reality.

The western Balkans is the only region in which the US consistently defers to a democratic partner’s leadership — that of the EU.

Nowhere else does the west, if united, wield greater leverage or have a wider array of policy instruments. Yet for far too long, the EU has addressed the region almost solely through its enlargement process, neglecting its foreign policy commitments — including a deterrent force in Bosnia and Herzegovina mandated by the Dayton Peace Agreement and authorised under Chapter 7 by the UN Security Council.

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This force remains well below the brigade-strength required to pose a credible deterrent to threats to the peace and territorial integrity. In addition, the EU states it will support local authorities, who have primary responsibility to maintain a secure environment — defying the reason the mandate exists to begin with: namely to thwart attempts by local authorities to upend the peace.

The desire to maintain the fiction that the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue is still alive compels the EU into all sorts

of contortions which in effect reward Serbia, despite allegations of Serbian involvement in recent violence, and periodic (and ongoing) threats of invasion. By straying from its original declared purpose to achieve mutual recognition between Serbia and Kosovo, as well as serving as a shield for Serbia’s authoritarian president, Aleksandar Vučić, the dialogue serves as a diversion from genuine problem- solving.

Incoming EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has demonstrated leadership and vision for Europe and the wider west as Estonia’s prime minister, particularly with regard to the response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

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One hopes she will undertake the overdue task of making the policies of the EU and the wider west more consistent with the values of democracy and human dignity we proclaim to hold dear. She can begin by leading the west to a restoration of credible deterrence in the Balkans, and start to counter the backsliding of democracy long visible there.

Kurt Bassuener
Co-Founder and Senior Associate, Democratization Policy Council, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

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Illegal settlements have been encouraged for years

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Neri Zilber’s piece “Far-right minister accused of politicising Israeli police” (Report, September 17) eloquently describes the crisis in the West Bank. Israel’s current government and its unsavoury allies in the settler movement stand accused, but in truth every government since 1967 has favoured illegal settlement.

The first settlements — the so-called Nahal settlements — in September 1967 were supposedly military and so did not, Israel argued, contravene international law. The west did nothing, so Israel then went ahead with brazen colonisation. When the first Oslo Accord was signed in 1993, there were in the order of 110,000 settlers in the West Bank.

A central principle of Oslo was that neither party would takes steps that would prejudice final status talks five years later. But Israel’s so-called moderate leaders, Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, immediately inaugurated the most intensive phase of settlement to date. By January 1996 settlers numbered 140,000. Rabin told his electorate not to worry — the Palestinians would not get a state. Meanwhile, Rabin and Peres accepted the Nobel Peace Prize. Butter wouldn’t melt in their mouths. The west did nothing. The Palestinians knew they had been stitched up.

So we should be under no illusions. This isn’t simply Benjamin Netanyahu and his associates, it is the long-standing thrust of the majority of Israelis across the political spectrum. Western governments have known this all along and even now appear unwilling to ensure respect for international humanitarian law as they have undertaken to do.

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The UN General Assembly is likely to agree that the July 19 advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice, which spells out Israel’s lawbreaking in detail, must be applied.

If it isn’t, in the Middle East the killing will continue while in New York the UN may face an impasse given the unwillingness of the US and its allies to uphold the international order they themselves helped put in place.

David McDowall
London TW10, UK

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Economy worries swirl after ‘painful’ Budget warning

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Economy worries swirl after 'painful' Budget warning
Getty Images Woman wearing yellow strappy sandals walking down a High Street carrying two shopping bags, one in each handGetty Images

The longest-running measure of consumer confidence fell sharply in September, raising concerns about whether government rhetoric about Budget “pain” has spooked people.

GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index had been recovering after years of rolling crises, higher interest rates and inflation gradually creeping up.

But since the end of August, it fell by seven points to -20 overall, which GfK has said does not provide “encouraging news” for the UK’s new government.

Some economists have linked the drop to officials’ warnings of a “painful” Budget at the end of August, although it is impossible to prove a link.

There were “major corrections” – or double digit falls – for consumers’ perception of the general economic situation, as well as how likely they were to make big purchases.

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People’s view of their own personal finances in the future has also gone negative again, down nine points to -3.

Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had previously hailed the turn in this measure positive as a sign of an economic turnaround.

The fall was unexpected as it came in the aftermath of an interest rate cut from the Bank of England, potentially easing the pressure faced by some homeowners.

But other measures of consumer confidence have dipped too.

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“Despite stable inflation and the prospect of further cuts in the base interest rate, this is not encouraging news for the UK’s new government,” said Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK.

He suggested that following the withdrawal of winter fuel payments and warnings of “further difficult decisions” to come on tax, spending and welfare, consumers are “nervously” awaiting the upcoming Budget on 30 October.

Some business leaders, such as the Labour-supporting boss of Iceland, Richard Walker, have warned the government about “doom-laden prophecies” on the economy.

When asked if “doom and gloom were overdone” last week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves told the BBC: “The latest business surveys continue to show a high degree of confidence in the UK economy because this government has brought stability back”.

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She also spoke of how she now wanted to “unlock the huge potential” of the country.

The Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday that he thought underlying confidence was rising but that consumers “want to see evidence that this is sustained”.

He also noted that rising incomes in the wake of inflation spiking had led to a “sharp rise in savings” in the last year – more than the increase in consumer spending.

The chancellor and prime minister are expected to outline a more hopeful, upbeat economic message at the Labour party’s conference next week, and at an important investment summit in mid-October.

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But what’s clear is that this is not a government that is rowing back on the message that the Budget will contain tax rises, welfare cuts and government departmental cuts, which may prove painful for some.

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FT Crossword: Number 17,847

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FT Crossword: Number 17,847

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Nike boss steps down as company veteran returns

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Nike boss steps down as company veteran returns

The boss of Nike will step down next month, making way for a company veteran to take his place as the leader of the world’s biggest sportswear company amid tough competition in the retail sector.

In a statement, Nike said John Donahoe will retire on 13 October, staying on in an advisory role until early next year to “ensure a smooth transition”.

Demand for the company’s trainers has been faltering in international markets like China and the company’s stock price had slumped.

Shares rose more than 9% in after-hours trading, however, following the announcement that Elliott Hill would return to the firm.

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Mr Donahoe was responsible for boosting Nike’s online presence, as well as driving more sales directly from customers instead of partnering with other shops on High Streets or in shopping centres.

He joined the company’s board in 2014 before taking on the role of chief executive in 2020.

His tenure has been challenging with huge shifts in the retail landscape during the pandemic and as inflation spiked in the following years.

The footwear firm has also faced tough competition from the likes of newer rivals like On and Hoka, which some analysts have described as being more innovative and on-top of current trends.

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Nike had been hoping that new products and a marketing campaign around the Olympic Games in Paris would help bring shoppers back to the brand.

But in the announcement on Thursday, it said that the board and Mr Donahoe had “decided he will retire from his role”.

“It became clear now was the time to make a leadership change,” Mr Donahoe said, adding that Elliott Hill is the right person for the job and he was looking forward to seeing his future success.

His successor, Mr Hill, retired from the company just four years ago after serving in a number of senior leadership roles in Europe and the US.

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He said he was “eager to reconnect” with employees he had worked with in the past.

“Together with our talented teams, I look forward to delivering bold, innovative products, that set us apart in the marketplace and captivate consumers for years to come,” he added.

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VW audit of Xinjiang plant fell short of international standards

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This article is an on-site version of our FirstFT newsletter. Subscribers can sign up to our Asia, Europe/Africa or Americas edition to receive the newsletter every weekday. Explore all of our newsletters here

Good morning. Today we’re covering:

  • China’s growing military activity near Taiwan

  • A novel treatment for schizophrenia

  • Australia’s successful approach to economic security

But first: the audit that Volkswagen claimed cleared it of allegations of forced labour in Xinjiang failed to meet international standards, according to a review of the leaked report on its findings.

The carmaker said in December that an audit had found “no indications of any use of forced labour” at its plant in the western Chinese region, where human rights groups have documented widespread abuse against the mainly Muslim Uyghur ethnic group.

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Löning, the Berlin consultancy founded by former German human rights commissioner Markus Löning, had applied the “internationally renowned” social auditing standard SA8000, VW said in a press release then. This prompted global index provider MSCI to remove a “red flag”, which since 2022 had barred ESG-focused investors from buying VW shares because of the Xinjiang allegations.

But the audit report, seen by the FT, shows that the Chinese firm involved in the work with Löning, Guangdong Liangma Law, did not adhere to critical aspects of the SA8000 auditing standard.

VW’s audit “departs” from the SA8000 standard “in several important ways”, chief among them the way interviews with staff were conducted, said Judy Gearhart, a professor at American University who helped develop the SA8000 rules.

The carmaker said that the SA8000 standard had only been used by the auditors as a “basis” but that “full examination of all points mentioned in the standard were [not] necessary”. 

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Here’s what the review of the audit found.

Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today and over the weekend:

  • Economic data: Hong Kong, Japan and India report inflation data for August.

  • Monetary policy: Traders expect the Bank of Japan to hold rates at a policy meeting concluding today. Meanwhile, China is expected to slash its lending rate, according to a Reuters poll.

  • Summit: US President Joe Biden hosts the leaders of India, Japan and Australia on Saturday for a gathering of the Quad nations in his home state of Delaware.

  • Sri Lanka: The country holds its presidential election on Saturday.

What lies ahead for India after the first 100 days of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term? Join FT, Nikkei Asia and Asia Society experts for a webinar on October 10 and put your questions to our panel now. Register for free. 

Five more top stories

1. Taiwan’s defence minister has warned that China’s growing military activity will make it more difficult to spot harbingers of an attack on his country. “We have to think about how we differentiate between peacetime and wartime,” Wellington Koo told reporters earlier today. The remarks came a day after a Chinese aircraft carrier group passed through waters near Taiwan’s northern tip.

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2. The S&P 500 closed at a record high yesterday as investors bet the Federal Reserve’s jumbo half-point interest rate cut would help deliver a soft landing for the US economy. The US gains capped a global rally that also featured strong gains in European and Asian markets. Japan’s Topix 2 closed per cent higher yesterday, led by tech stocks and exporters.

3. Israel struck targets along Lebanon’s southern border yesterday as the leader of the Hizbollah militant group said the Jewish state had crossed “all red lines” with this week’s mass detonations of communication devices. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the attacks, which killed 32 people and injured thousands, were a “major security and military blow”.

4. Nike chief executive John Donahoe will step down next month in an abrupt leadership change at the world’s largest sportswear maker. The move punctuates a period of dour financial performance, including a dramatic stock sell-off after the company lowered its guidance in June. Here’s who will replace him.

5. Brazil’s Supreme Court will impose a fine of about $1mn per day on Elon Musk’s X and his satellite internet provider Starlink after service to the social media platform was temporarily restored in spite of a court-ordered ban. Users were able to access the service after X switched its third-party cloud provider.

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How well did you keep up with the news this week? Take our quiz.

The Big Read

Montage image of a bar chart, a person’s face and glowing lines representing neural pathways
© FT montage/Unsplash/Dreamstime

Schizophrenia sufferers are frequently pushed to the fringes of society, haunted by the delusions and hallucinations that define the worst flare-ups of the illness, while poorly served by a choice of old and imperfect treatments. Now hope is at hand. If approved by US regulators this month, a twice-daily pill will arguably be the first truly novel treatment for the “cancer of psychiatry” in more than seven decades.

We’re also reading . . . 

Chart of the day

A frantic hunt by chocolate manufacturers for high-grade cocoa has left a backlog of old, poor-quality beans lying in London’s warehouses, leading to a rare divergence in prices between the UK and the US.

Line chart of Performance year-to-date, rebased (%) showing US and UK cocoa prices decouple amid global shortage

Take a break from the news

Thanks to a wave of nostalgia, demand for classic football kits is soaring. But so are the prices. HTSI’s Alexander Tyndall looks at the rise of the football shirt — and why a Holland ’88 kit might cost you £900.

Ruud Gullit of the Netherlands during a football match, wearing  a geometric-patterned, orange shirt
Ruud Gullit of the Netherlands in the 1988 home shirt, which is considered the holy grail of kits © Mark Leech/Offside/Getty Images

Additional contributions from Gordon Smith and Tee Zhuo

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