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The hour between donkey and elephant

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Different situations call for different classic investment books to be pulled down from the shelf. In a roaring bull market, you might want to familiarise yourself with Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. At a different point in the cycle, you might reach for a collection of the maxims of Warren Buffett. 

This week, though, there’s really only one thing to pack for the commute; John Coates’ 2012 masterpiece, The Hour Between Dog And Wolf.

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Coates is a neuroscientist who had previously been an options trader at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank. His book applied biology to finance, detailing the results of studies carried out on the hormonal balances of traders, and general results about human behaviour and decision-making under conditions of stress.

As the FT review put it:

In male traders — and most are young men — a run of success creates a testosterone-fuelled “winner effect” in which the trader is biologically driven to take ever greater risks. When he crashes into huge losses, his whole personality changes (a transformation that Coates calls the “hour between dog and wolf”, a phrase apparently popular in medieval times to denote the period of confusion and potential metamorphosis around dusk). The cowed trader becomes apathetic and, for a while at least, excessively risk-averse.

In other words, it’s the perfect framework to think about the environment we’re going to see this week. A hugely important and unpredictable election, with lots of late night trading and major US news falling into European and Asian markets, potentially staffed up with young and inexperienced traders. And then there’s a Fed meeting on Friday.

Things are going to be volatile.

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People don’t like to think too much about the fact that — no matter how sophisticated the systems and algorithms making the trades are — the ultimate decisions are being made by human animals that eat, sweat and excrete. (One of the most memorable passages in Coates’ book describes the state of the men’s’ bathrooms at Goldman Sachs on a particularly bad trading day during the dotcom bust). 

But whenever we’re talking about “vibes” and “sentiment”, to a very large extent we’re talking about chemicals in the bloodstream, the sorts of things which in less complicated beasts are linked to instincts of fighting, running away and reproduction. None of which you’re meant to do while you’re trading short term interest rates. 

So the kinds of behaviours that people really want get controlled and sublimated into recognisable trading patterns. For example, in conditions of “novelty, uncertainty and uncontrollability”, the body produces cortisol, a hormone that’s associated with a desire to avoid risk and seek familiarity. In markets, this shows up in reduced liquidity and wider spreads — which in turn cause more volatile price swings, exacerbating the stress in a sort of feedback loop. 

It’s not impossible that there’s an element of cortisol reaction in the way that specialist Election Data Knowers have tended to make adjustments to avoid standing out from the crowd.

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At some point, though, someone is going to get the sense that they’re winning — either in terms of the political party they support, or their trading position. This is also self-reinforcing, because the “winner effect” (established to a surprising degree of statistical certainty by taking urine tests from the crowd at World Cup Finals) generates a surge of testosterone. 

That hormone makes people more confident in their decisions and inclined to increase their risk. It’s the sort of thing that, for example, might cause someone to end up with $30mn at stake on prediction markets.

It’s possible to mitigate the effects, a bit. Trading desks which employ women (and men old enough to enjoy the cognitive benefits of declining testosterone levels) are less likely to get carried away, as Coates demonstrated. You’re less vulnerable to falling into a cortisol slump if you’ve done sufficient preparation and have enough experience to be able to deal with things “pre-attentively”, without too much conscious thinking. 

And there’s decent evidence from sport and military contexts to believe that repeated exposure to “thermal shock” can harden the hormonal system and reduce the tendency to wild swings.

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So, taking a cold shower before the market gives you an ice bath might be sound advice. But the main takeaway from “The Hour Between Dog And Wolf” is that there’s really not much that can be done in situations that some traders are likely to find themselves in tonight. 

Investors have always hated political risk because it’s impossible to analyse, it’s extremely difficult to hedge and it’s not what they’re used to — the exact trio of “novelty, uncertainty and uncontrollability” which causes the brain to shut down. 

We might have to accept that this week is going to be a mistake-rich environment and pick up the pieces later when we’ve all calmed down.

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Reaction Engines’ demise has echoes of past failures

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The collapse of hypersonic research group Reaction Engines for want of £20mn, a relatively trivial amount given the tens of billions of tax rises imposed by the new Budget, betrays the penny-wise, pound-foolish attitude of Treasury bean-counters (“Hopes dashed at Reaction Engines amid failure to win new funding”, Report, November 1).

We have been in this exact same situation before. History remembers that US Air Force pilot Chuck Yeager became the first man to break the sound barrier in 1947 but it ought to have been a British pilot, Eric Brown.

During the second world war, British mach-speed research was significantly more advanced than that of the US. Britain’s Miles M.52 prototype was designed to fly at 1,000 miles an hour, and America’s Bell Aircraft Corporation studied Miles Aircraft’s drawings and models to correct and complete the design of the Bell X-1, Yeager’s aircraft.

In 1946, the Attlee government cancelled the UK’s high-speed flight programme — for reasons of cost. So it transpired that in 1947 Yeager became immortalised in aviation legend as the emblem of the American can-do attitude and adventurous pioneering spirit, while in the same year Miles Aircraft went bankrupt as an example of small-minded British insularity.

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The UK could also have been a key part of the space race: Clement Attlee’s ministry of supply also refused to build the “Megaroc” rocket which would have made a Briton the first person in space as early as 1949. The Mercury Redstone rocket, used for the US’s first manned space flight in 1961, was a copy of the British Megaroc.

This dismal history of lost opportunity is back with us again. Reaction Engines’ failure is typical of how Britain will time and again abandon its leads in cutting-edge science to waste money in sclerotic bureaucracy.

Robert Frazer
Salford, Lancashire, UK

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Thousands of pensioners to get £200 cost of living payment within weeks – see what you can claim NOW

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How to check if you’re eligible for DWP winter cash including cold weather payments and warm home discount

THOUSANDS of pensioners are set to get cost of living payments worth £200 within weeks.

Hard-up retirees are set to receive the payment through the Household Support Fund (HSF).

Struggling households can get access to cash via the Household Support Fund

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Struggling households can get access to cash via the Household Support Fund

The aid was set up in 2021 but has been extended a number of times by the government as households struggle to keep on top of rising costs.

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It is paid out by local councils and is not exclusive for pensioners to claim.

However, cuts to the £300 Winter Fuel Payment have meant many older people have begun to turn to the aid for extra support.

In East Riding,  low-income pensioners, disabled people, care leavers and those who are financially in crisis can claim £200 worth of cost-of-living support.

To meet the criteria the following must apply:

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  • Be an East Riding resident and in receipt of housing benefit, housing element of universal credit or council tax support
  • Be in receipt of a means-tested benefit and have been continuously for a minimum of three months
  • Applicant and partner not in employment
  • Have less than £1000 in savings
  • Not received financial support from the Household Support Fund during the period April 1 2024 to September 30 2024
  • Not receiving targeted financial support from the current Household Support Fund.

The local council will pay £200 to eligible households which they can then use for food or energy support.

East Riding Council opened the scheme for applicants in October, and payments will be made until March 2025.

If your claim is successful then you should receive the payment in 20 days.

To apply for the fund you can visit www.eryc.link/fund.

Alternatively, if you do not have access to the internet you can ring the following number, (01482) 393939.

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What if I don’t live in East Riding?

It is not only households in East Riding that have access to the Household Support Fund (HSF).

The government has promised to pump a further £1billion into the fund over 2025 and 2026.

This is on top of the £421million top-up up which was announced in September and saw the scheme extended until March 2025.

Some examples of what other councils are doing include Rotherham Council, which is now offering struggling families £250 grants to fight the cost of living.

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Rotherham Council says to qualify for the grant, residents must have no more than £150 remaining each month after covering essential expenses like food, rent or mortgage and utility bills.

You do not need to be on benefits to apply for the fund.

How to know if you qualify?

Financial support available to struggling households varies from council to council, so it is worth checking what schemes your local council offers to ensure you get all the support you need. 

The benefits you already receive will not be impacted by applying for the HSF. 

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And, you do not necessarily need to receive benefits in the first place  to get vouchers or funds from the HSF.

To get the help, you’ll need to check with your council – as local authorities are in charge of distributing the funding.

Information on how to apply for the funding should be published on your council’s website. Each council will have a different application process.

If there’s no information on your council’s website, then it’s best to ring them up and ask for more information.

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Household Support Fund explained

Sun Savers Editor Lana Clements explains what you need to know about the Household Support Fund.

If you’re battling to afford energy and water bills, food or other essential items and services, the Household Support Fund can act as a vital lifeline.

The financial support is a little-known way for struggling families to get extra help with the cost of living.

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Every council in England has been given a share of £421million cash by the government to distribute to local low-income households.

Each local authority chooses how to pass on the support. Some offer vouchers whereas others give direct cash payments.

In many instances, the value of support is worth hundreds of pounds to individual families.

Just as the support varies between councils, so does the criteria for qualifying.

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Many councils offer help to households on selected benefits or they may base help on the level of household income.

The key is to get in touch with your local authority to see exactly what support is on offer.

And don’t delay, the scheme has been extended until April 2025 but your council may dish out their share of the Household Support Fund before this date.

Once the cash is gone, you may find they cannot provide any extra help so it’s crucial you apply as soon as possible. 

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Asian stock markets and dollar rise as US election in focus

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Asian stock markets and dollar rise as US election in focus

Investors around the world are closely watching the US presidential election for clues on the outcome.

Benchmark stock indexes in Japan and Australia made gains in Wednesday morning trade, while the US dollar was higher against other major currencies.

The result of the election is expected to have a major impact on economies across Asia.

It is uncertain whether the result of the election will be known during Asian trading hours, as counts in swing states could take days to be completed.

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“Markets look in good spirits despite there being no clear signs yet of who will take the reigns of the White House,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at investment firm KCM Trade.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index was up by around 1%, while Australia’s ASX 200 0.8% higher.

In the US on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed more than 1% higher.

“We could yet see some fluctuations across markets today though, particularly by assets which could be affected most by the outcome, with the US dollar and Chinese stocks being prime examples,” Mr Waterer said.

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Donald Trump has said throughout the campaign that if he became the next US president he would dramatically increase trade tariffs, especially on China.

If Kamala Harris wins investors expect her trade policies to be a continuation of Joe Biden’s more predicable approach.

Investors also have other key issues to focus on this week.

On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve is due to announce its latest decision on interest rates.

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Comments from the head of the central bank, Jerome Powell, will be watched closely around the world.

On Friday, top Chinese officials are expected to unveil more details about Beijing’s plans to tackle the slowdown of the world’s second largest economy.

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Money

Martin Lewis says it’s a ‘crucial moment to act’ NOW to boost your savings ahead of key decision tomorrow

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Martin Lewis says it's a 'crucial moment to act' NOW to boost your savings ahead of key decision tomorrow

MARTIN Lewis has urged savers to act now to boost their balances ahead of a key decision tomorrow.

He spoke during Tuesday’s episode of his ITV programme, The Martin Lewis Money Show Live.

Martin Lewis spoke during Tuesday's episode of his ITV programme, The Martin Lewis Money Show Live

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Martin Lewis spoke during Tuesday’s episode of his ITV programme, The Martin Lewis Money Show LiveCredit: ITV
Martin urged Brits to check what interest they currently get ahead of an expected fall in the UK base rate this Thursday

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Martin urged Brits to check what interest they currently get ahead of an expected fall in the UK base rate this ThursdayCredit: ITV

Martin urged Brits to check what interest they currently get ahead of an expected fall in the UK base rate this Thursday.

He said: “The UK base rate, this is the Bank of England set rate, obviously was very low and then it’s risen recently and peaked at 5.25%.

“It’s dropped to five per cent now and we are expecting on Thursday that interest rate to drop by about a quarter of a per cent.”

He qualified that this was not guaranteed.

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Martin went on: “Now though we are in the position where inflation is substantially lower than we have on interest rates so your money is growing in real terms.

“If you put money away in savings and in a couple of years, you will be able to buy more with it than you could at the point you put it in.

“Saving is finally, at last, paying.”

In the same programme, he also warned that a million people have been overpaying their student loans – and could be owed a refund.

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In the last tax year, more than one million university leavers overpaid their student loans, according to figures released by the Student Loans Company (SLC).

Speaking on The Martin Lewis Money Show Live, on ITV on Tuesday, the show host said graduates were able to claim money back if they had overpaid, which was “very easy to do”.

There were four main reasons you may have overpaid your student loan.

Martin said: “The first, and the biggest by a mile, over a million people overpaid this way, is you should only repay if you earn over the annual threshold.”

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He added: “For Plan 2, which has the most number of people on it, 2012 to 2022 English starters, you’ve got to understand, if you earn less than that [£27,295] you shouldn’t repay the student loan but because it’s taken via the payroll your student loan is taken monthly.

“A twelfth of that is £2,274 per year, so if you earn more than that in a month, you’re gonna have student loan contributions taken from you.”

He explained that because repayments are taken from your payroll monthly, if your earnings vary through the year, you may be assumed to be over the yearly limit in one month of decent earnings.

This is despite you not earning above the total threshold for the year when earnings are taken as a whole – meaning the money is taken from you despite not being eligible.

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Martin Lewis  offered his advice on student loans

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Martin Lewis offered his advice on student loansCredit: Rex
Maximum annual tuition fee caps between 1998 and 2025

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Maximum annual tuition fee caps between 1998 and 2025

A second reason was people were on the wrong student loan repayment plan – in which case you should talk to your employer and tell them what plan you’re on.

The third reason is that you started repaying too early.

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If you started university from 1998 onwards and were a full-time student, you should not have begun paying your loan back until the April after finishing your course.

But the latest figures from SLC reveals that 59,251 students had loan repayments taken before they were due to start repayments in 2023/24, according to MoneySavingExpert.com.

The fourth reason is that the loan was wiped – which typically happens after 30 years – but a number were still left paying in error.

A number of case studies of those who overpaid were revealed in an article for Martin’s Money Saving Expert website, published on November 4.

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How have student loan repayments changed?

STUDENT loan repayments are based on your earnings and not the size of the debt.

However, when you start making repayments or when your student loan amount is written off will depend on when you went to University.

Plan 1 – 1998-2012

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If you took out a student loan between 1998 and 2012, you’ll be bound by the Plan 1 repayment rules.

These students only start repaying their loans when their salary breaches the threshold of £24,990 a year.

You’ll pay 9 per cent back once your salary breaches this threshold.

The interest rate charged on these loans is based on either RPI or the Bank of England rate – whichever is lower – plus one percentage point.

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These loans are written off after 25 years.

Plan 2 – 2012-2023

If you took out a student loan between 1998 and 2012, you’ll be bound by the Plan 2 repayment rules.

These students only start repaying their loans when their salary breaches the threshold of £27,295 a year.

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You’ll pay 9 per cent back once your salary breaches this threshold.

The interest rate charged on these loans is based on RPI plus up to three percentage points – dependant on your income.

These loans are written off after 30 years.

Plan 5 – 2023-present

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If you took out a student loan from 2023 onwards, you’ll be bound by the Plan 5 repayment rules.

These students only start repaying their loans when their salary breaches the threshold of £25,000 a year.

You’ll pay 9 per cent back once your salary breaches this threshold.

The interest rate charged on these loans is based on RPI only.

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These loans are written off after 40 years.

Fiona wrote in during October 2023 saying: “I knew something wasn’t right when I lodged my tax returns and reading Martin’s article was the catalyst for a sustained attempt to work out what had happened. I received £3,773 back.”

Lyndsey said: “Thanks to watching Martin Lewis’s programme last night I contacted the SLC and have got a refund of £706 as I had started paying straightaway. Great just before Christmas.”

Melissa said: “Just wanted to say a massive thank you as I read your article on overpaying on student loan repayments and realised there was a chance I had overpaid.

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“Turns out I had and I’ve since received a refund of £900! I’ve been doing house renovations this year so this money has been incredibly handy in going towards them.”

Lisa added: “I spent 15 minutes on the phone and got £555 back for overpayments on my student loan.

“Most was because of my maternity leave. Thanks so much, couldn’t have come at a better time.”

He spoke during Tuesday's episode of his ITV programme, The Martin Lewis Money Show Live

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He spoke during Tuesday’s episode of his ITV programme, The Martin Lewis Money Show LiveCredit: ITV

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Travel

Time-warp UK Christmas market that feels like you’re in Victorian Britain & fans say better than the big city ones

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The Worcester Victorian Christmas Fayre runs for four days in December

THERE’S a Christmas market in the West Midlands that leaves visitors feeling like they’ve stepped into festive Victorian England.

At the Worcester Victorian Christmas Fayre, stallholders dress in traditional period clothing like bonnets, lace blouses, full-length black skirts, shawls, and top hats, transporting visitors back 150 years.

The Worcester Victorian Christmas Fayre runs for four days in December

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The Worcester Victorian Christmas Fayre runs for four days in DecemberCredit: Facebook
Christmas Fayre stallholders dress in traditional period clothing

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Christmas Fayre stallholders dress in traditional period clothingCredit: Alamy
There are more than 200 stalls at the Christmas fayre

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There are more than 200 stalls at the Christmas fayreCredit: Facebook

The Christmas market has been a staple part of the city’s festivities ever since it first opened in 1992.

It’s home to over 200 stalls where traders sell handmade gifts and festive treats.

While the themed traders form the bulk of the market, there are other period attractions too.

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One of those is a performer dressed as Scrooge who moans his way through the crowds, daring brave Brits to approach.

Read More on Christmas Travel

Arthur Conan Doyle‘s characters Sherlock Holmes and Dr Watson will be solving crimes on stilts.

The Temperance lady is another one of the characters at the market, trying to get visitors to denounce the demon drink.

Gin Lane is another attraction at the market, with performances from local actors taking place in the alleyway.

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Located between New Street and The Shambles, Gin Lane will be open for visitors at set times over the weekend.

Live music and entertainment will also take place at the Cardinal’s Hat on Friar Street.

Dating back to the 14th century, the Cardinal’s Hat is Worcester’s oldest inn.

Birmingham Frankfurt Christmas Market was crowned 8th place in Best Christmas Markets in Europe 2024 by European Best Destinations

The boozer serves a range of pub snacks and real ales and also functions as a boutique hotel.

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There’s also Dancefest, a pop-up dance festival, where a host of other yuletide characters, including the Temperance Lady and Mr Scrooge, will be putting on a performance or two.

Last year, funfair rides were also at the market – although it is not yet known whether they’ll be returning for 2024.

Visitors will have to plan their break carefully, because the market is only open for four days from November 28, 2024, until December 1, 2024.

The Victorian market spans several streets in Worcester, including New Street, Friar Street, Pump Street, High Street, the Cornmarket, and Cathedral Square.

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Worcester Victorian Fayre announced its return earlier this year, with fans taking to Facebook to share their excitement.

One person wrote: “I’m really looking forward to the Christmas market”.

Another added: “Wouldn’t miss it”.

And last year, one couple from Stourbridge told local newspaper Worcester News: “It’s chilled out and family-friendly. There are lots of independent retailers and they are selling products for a good a price too.

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“I think it is much better than Birmingham and reminiscent of the European markets.”

Worcester is a 50-minute drive from Birmingham and is a three-hour drive from London.

Visitors who drive to the market are encouraged to use the city’s park-and-ride scheme at Worcester Crowngate Bus Station to help avoid overcrowding.

Worcester’s train stations also have direct links to Birmingham Moor Street and London Paddington.

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Four Other Victorian Christmas markets in the UK

HERE are four other Victorian Christmas markets to visit in the UK.

  1. Rochester Dickensian Christmas Festival – Held in Rochester, Kent, this festival celebrates Charles Dickens and his works. The market features Victorian street performers, costumed characters, and traditional stalls.
  2. York Christmas Market (St Nicholas Fair) – Located in York, this market transforms the city into a winter wonderland with Victorian-style chalets, festive decorations, and a vintage carousel.
  3. Stratford-upon-Avon Victorian Christmas Market – This market in the birthplace of Shakespeare offers a variety of stalls, street entertainment, and costumed vendors, all set against the historic backdrop of Stratford-upon-Avon.
  4. Gloucester Quays Victorian Christmas Market – Situated in the historic Gloucester Docks, this market features Victorian characters, traditional market stalls, and festive entertainment, including a vintage carousel and an ice rink.

Meanwhile, this travel writer thinks their hometown has the best Christmas attraction in the UK.

A city in Germany has been dubbed “Christmas city” because it has one of the world’s oldest and most famous Christmas markets.

Stilt walkers move through the fayre, keeping visitors entertained

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Stilt walkers move through the fayre, keeping visitors entertainedCredit: Alamy
The market is only open for four days from November 28, 2024, until December 1, 2024

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The market is only open for four days from November 28, 2024, until December 1, 2024Credit: Facebook

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The global south’s wish list for an increasingly self-help world

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Alec Russell makes an excellent point in his FT column “How the west should re-engage with the global south” (Opinion, October 31) when he takes note of the rise of Brics and states that “global power is shifting” and “the post-1945 order is crumbling”.

The expanding Brics is but one response to the malaise afflicting the world order. This malaise is centred on the failure of the west, led by the US, to account for the rise of the global south, a meta-region stretching from Latin America to south-east Asia and the Pacific containing about 70 per cent of the global population and most of the world’s growth in people and economic output.

Russell correctly prescribes climate finance as a pathway to repairing west-south relations. However, given the constraints of domestic politics, it is hard to see the US and Europe committing to the much greater spending needed to bridge the yawning financing gap on climate mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage.

Global south states are not just looking for more money. They are also looking to rise in the international order in terms of their national power and influence. Brics is an important sign of their investment in collective action. But most of these states’ efforts are focused on their autonomous rise in what is increasingly a self-help international system.

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Thus, a key ask from global south states is for greater respect for their sovereignty.

Two actions from the west, especially from the US, would help here. First, a pullback on punishing secondary sanctions that are illegal under international law and mostly target the global south. Second, a rethink of the obsession among both the left and the right in the west to rewire the global south’s domestic economic systems. This push, whose unstated goals are often protectionist, is increasingly packaged under the label of environmental and labour standards.

Both correctives will go a long way in bridging the divides between the west and the global south.

Sarang Shidore
Director, Global South Programme,
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Washington, DC, US

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