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The ‘Tesla-financial complex’ roars back to life

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Line chart of Share price, $ showing Tesla soars on Trump win

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Investors who were betting against Tesla have had a rough few days, Bloomberg writes:

Hedge funds that had short positions against Tesla between election day and Friday’s close took an on-paper hit of at least $5.2 billion, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data compiled by S3 Partners.

[ . . . ]

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Since the Nov. 5 election, Tesla shares have gained close to 30%, representing well over $200 billion in additional market value. By Friday, the company’s valuation exceeded $1 trillion. Against that backdrop, hedge funds that had previously built short bets have since rushed to reverse course.

With Elon Musk having months ago tied his fortunes to Donald Trump, the hedgies’ bold strategy did not pay off. In the days since the Republicans’ win, rampant buying of Tesla call options has triggered a classic “gamma squeeze”, according to analysts, with brokers on the other side of the trade forced to buy yet more of the underlying shares to cover their positions.

Line chart of Share price, $ showing Tesla soars on Trump win

The numbers involved are “huge” says Rocky Fishman at Asym500. The notional trading value of Tesla options has averaged $145bn a day since the election, according to Fishman’s figures. Last Friday, notional trading volumes hit a stonking $245bn.

That compares with $55bn a day for Nvidia, the second most active single-stock option market, and $310bn a day for the rest of the US single-stock market combined.

Fishman cautions that he doesn’t have a break-down of which of the $310bn is S&P 500 constituents versus non-constituents. “There are meaningful non-constituent contributors to the total,” he told us on Monday, “including bitcoin-related stocks (Coinbase, MicroStrategy), ADRs (Taiwan Semiconductor, Alibaba, MercadoLibre), and election-related stocks (Trump Media).”

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But however you cut it, the ‘Tesla-financial complex’ that Robin covered in 2021 looks like it’s back. And with a bang.


Elsewhere in options-land, S&P 500 implied volatility and put skew have been “absolutely decimated” following Trump’s election victory.

So says Nomura’s Charlie McElligott, who in a note out today describes how investors saddled with pesky risk-management limitations were forced to hedge for a scenario (delayed and disputed election results) that never materialised. Their downside puts have subsequently “turned into a smouldering pile of ash”.

McElligott notes that index call option skew (the difference in implied volatility between out of the money call options versus at the money call options) is now “screaming steeper in violent fashion” as investors chase a Trump-fuelled rally that last week propelled the S&P 500 to its best week in a year. The cross-asset volatility risk premium we wrote about last week has vanished:

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[High-res version]

Funds that adjust their equity exposure depending on the prevailing level of market turbulence have thus increased their positions to the highest in over a month, according to Deutsche Bank. Discretionary investor positioning has climbed close to the top of its historical range.

Ignoring markets’ tendency to mean revert, everything is basically awesome and the only way is up, up, up!

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Disney boosted by ‘Deadpool’ and ‘Inside Out 2’

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The box office success of Marvel’s Deadpool & Wolverine and a solid profit in Disney’s streaming businesses helped lift the entertainment company’s earnings by 39 per cent from a year earlier, even as income at its theme park business dropped.

The film’s performance, combined with Pixar’s record-setting Inside Out 2, has eased investor concerns that Disney was losing its magic touch at the box office. Bob Iger, Disney chief executive, hailed it as “one of the best quarters in the history of our film studio”. 

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The films’ strong showing, combined with $253mn operating profit at the Disney+ and Hulu streaming services, offset sharp declines in its traditional TV business. Including the ESPN+ sports service, total streaming operating income was $321mn, reversing a loss of $387mn a year ago. 

Disney is also expecting a strong holiday season at the box office with the release of Moana 2 and Mufasa: The Lion King. “Creativity is very much back on track for Disney, which is obviously the biggest value creator for us because of the way it plays through the rest of the company,” said Hugh Johnston, Disney’s chief financial officer. 

However, investors have grown concerned about another area of the business that had been Disney’s strongest performer over the past two years: the “experiences” division that includes the company’s theme parks and cruise ships. 

Disney’s theme parks roared back from the pandemic but faced an early summer slowdown as American visitors reined in spending. 

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The US business rebounded in the most recent quarter as guests spent more money in theme parks and on cruise ships, but that was offset by weakness at Disneyland Paris and Shanghai Disney. The division had record revenue and operating income for the full year and Disney expects attendance to rise in 2025.  

Disney is investing heavily in its experiences business, with plans to pump $60bn into its theme parks and cruise lines over the next decade. The company expects the division to generate operating income growth of 6 to 8 per cent in the coming year, and “high single-digit growth” in 2026 — thanks to the launch of two new cruise ships that year.

The company earned $1.14 in adjusted earnings per share in the fiscal fourth quarter, beating Wall Street estimates of $1.09. Revenue rose 6 per cent to $22.6bn.  

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Iger returned to Disney after a brief retirement two years ago and launched a sweeping cost-cutting and restructuring plan. Since then the shares have risen but are underperforming the broader stock market.

The company plans to repurchase $3bn in shares in 2025 and says its dividend will “grow in line with earnings”.

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Guiding clients through the Budget changes

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Advisers held back by tech’s ‘swivel chair effect’

For several weeks, we’ve been hearing the government talk about “fixing the foundations” of the UK economy.

Speculation has been rife about how chancellor Rachel Reeves would address the £22bn “black hole” in public finances.

Now, with the Budget out of the way, we have a clearer view of the specific plans.

Billed as a Budget to rebuild Britain, there was a strong focus on making difficult decisions on tax and spending to support economic growth and stability.

The general consensus seems to be it could have been worse

As set out in the Labour election manifesto, Reeves maintained the current rates of income tax, employee National Insurance and VAT. However, while keeping core tax rates unchanged for the broader population, the chancellor brought in new measures aimed at “the wealthiest”, including immediate increases in the capital gains tax (CGT) rates and the removal of the inheritance tax (IHT) exemption on pension assets from April 2027.

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From the details so far, the general consensus seems to be it could have been worse, even for many advised clients likely to fall within the chancellor’s fairly broad definition of wealthy.

Unfortunately, the problem with so much pre-Budget speculation is that it can undermine trust in the system and discourage long-term financial planning.

Many people are already worried about the size of their pension pot, with nearly three-fifths of UK adults concerned they won’t be able to fund the lifestyle they want in later life, according to research by Unbiased.

Interactive Investor saw a 58% increase in cash withdrawals from Sipps in the first half of September, compared to the same period last year

At the other end of the spectrum, rumours over the last few weeks of a possible reduction in pension tax-free lump sums drove some older consumers to try to pre-empt any reforms. Interactive Investor saw a 58% increase in cash withdrawals from Sipps in the first half of September, compared to the same period last year.

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Although the anticipated changes to tax-free cash limits didn’t materialise, for most of those who have already acted, the decision will be irreversible, with lasting implications for the future taxation and investment growth of their pension.

One of the main benefits of taking advice is having professional support on hand to help with informed decision-making in times of uncertainty, whether it’s caused by pre-Budget speculation, market volatility or surging inflation.

Now there is greater clarity on the government’s approach, it’s an opportune time to re-engage clients with their financial plans and check their savings and investments continue to meet their long-term objectives. Technology can make this job much easier.

Giving clients access to a high-level view of their financial position can help them self-serve during times of uncertainty

A business management solution can help you quickly understand which clients are affected by any rule changes and prioritise who to contact. For instance, it should enable you to easily review clients’ portfolio details, tax wrappers, holdings, transaction history and performance, to understand whether CGT may apply, review estate planning and confirm the most tax-efficient income strategy.

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It can also help you identify different segments to send more general information about relevant changes, to help inform clients about any future action they may need to consider.

Giving clients access to a high-level view of their financial position can also help them self-serve during times of uncertainty. Using a secure portal allows clients to get up-to-date valuations across their portfolios, see goal progression and amend selected fact-find data at a time that suits them and without needing to contact you.

Client portals can also provide a gateway into cashflow modelling, allowing clients to try out ‘what if’ scenarios, such as retiring earlier or later, or increasing pension contributions, to see how these changes might affect their future finances.

Now the speculation is over, the work begins on understanding the impact of the changes

This encourages deeper financial-planning discussions, which you can support with a detailed cashflow modelling exercise to create a personalised, visual projection of future wealth across various scenarios, including how Budget rule changes could affect the client’s current and future finances.

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Linking not only valuations for pensions and investments but also bank accounts via an Open Banking integration to the client portal can give a more detailed view of the client’s entire wealth.

This could highlight additional financial-planning opportunities and make it easier to track income and expenditure for a more accurate picture of outgoings and potentially where savings could be made.

Such tools can help illustrate where small changes now can make a big difference to the size of their retirement funds for those building wealth or the sustainability of income for those in decumulation, calming anxiety about the future with a clear action plan.

Now the speculation is over, the work begins on understanding the impact of the changes. Advice will be central to reassuring clients and guiding them through any adjustments required to make sure their future goals remain on track. Technology can aid the process, helping you demonstrate the value that you’re adding to clients’ financial futures.

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Nick Eatock is chief executive at Intelliflo

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Donald Trump’s Pentagon pick sparks alarm — and scorn

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Donald Trump’s choice of Pete Hegseth to run the Pentagon has brought a backlash in Washington military circles as officials decry a “crazy” move to appoint a “bomb thrower” lacking the clout needed to lead the world’s most powerful defence department.

Trump nominated Hegseth, a Fox News host known for his attacks on “wokeness”, on Tuesday — one of several controversial national security picks by the president-elect in a rapid-fire 24 hours of cabinet nominations that sparked scorn from opponents and alarm from US allies.

Hegseth’s critics described him as unprepared for a pivotal job during a period of global conflict — and a threat to the stability of the US defence establishment. The TV host, who also served in the US military, has proposed firing top military leaders including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

“He is unqualified, and he is the most overtly and extreme political nominee we’ve ever seen. This is a bomb thrower,” said Paul Rieckhoff, founder of Independent Veterans of America, which helps politically independent veterans run for office.

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Rieckhoff said the nomination, coming just a week after Trump’s Republican party won the White House and both houses of Congress, showed the president-elect was past caring about the reaction to his radical agenda for the country.

Trump was “pressing a political mandate in a way we have never seen in American history”, Rieckhoff said.

Even before Hegseth’s nomination, Pentagon officials had grown edgy about Trump’s campaign promises to fire “woke generals” and eliminate diversity programmes in the military.

In private, many seethed at the Hegseth news.

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The Fox News presenter’s nomination was “crazy”, said one senior defence professional — and baffling even to some Republicans who had been reassured by Trump’s pick of Mike Waltz to be his national security adviser and Marco Rubio as his nominee for secretary of state.

Trump’s critics saw it as more evidence of the president-elect’s volatility.

“Trump picking Pete Hegseth is the most hilariously predictably stupid thing,” said Adam Kinzinger, a former Republican congressman.

Hegseth’s possible elevation has already drawn criticism from US allies, amid concerns that the Trump ally’s positions on Israel, Ukraine or Taiwan are not fully known or consistent.

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Trump said Hegseth was “tough, smart and a true believer in America first”, another sign that the president-elect was making loyalty a key requirement of his cabinet appointments.

But former officials warned that Hegseth’s intention to remove top generals, or have Trump fire CQ Brown — who was the first African American to lead a branch of the US Armed Forces — or order the military to take part in mass deportations could spark a significant crisis between service members and the political leadership.

“You’re looking at a potential crisis in civil-military relations here,” said Eric Edelman, vice-chair of the congressionally mandated Commission on National Defense Strategy and a senior Pentagon official during the George W Bush administration.

Hegseth has been a harsh critic of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, blaming them for the armed services’ failure to enlist more people, particularly white men.

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Military recruiters have connected a drop in white male recruits to growing obesity and poor funding of education, among other factors.

But the DEI issue points to an area of potential conflict if Hegseth takes the helm.

“Any general that was involved . . . in any of the DEI, woke shit, has got to go . . . you have to re-establish that trust by putting in no-nonsense war fighters in those positions who aren’t going to cater to the socially correct garbage,” he said in a podcast interview with Shawn Ryan.

Hegseth must win a majority of votes in the Senate to be confirmed, which could be a challenge even though Republicans hold a 53-seat advantage in the chamber. Some senators appeared uncertain.

“I don’t know anything about him,” said Bill Cassidy, a Republican senator from Louisiana on Wednesday.

Asked about Hegseth’s reputation on Capitol Hill, a senior Republican national security adviser replied: “Who? . . . He wasn’t on the radar until yesterday.”

But none of the party’s members have said they would vote against him. Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said on Wednesday he had no concerns with Hegseth, telling CNN he was “delighted” at his nomination.

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The Fox News star’s biggest challenge could be convincing senators — or military leaders — that he is credible as a Pentagon chief, with the managerial chops to lead the nation’s largest bureaucracy or connect with allies and partners.

“I see no evidence that this person has relationships whatsoever with our overseas partners,” Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, told reporters. “How is he going to do when working on the various coalitions we have?”

Additional reporting by Demetri Sevastopulo and Alex Rogers

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I went to IKEA’s new two-storey high street restaurant – it’s perfect for parents and prices start from 50p

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I went to IKEA's new two-storey high street restaurant - it's perfect for parents and prices start from 50p

WHEN most people hear the name IKEA, they probably think of flat-pack furniture rather than food.

But the Swedish retailer has now dipped its foot further into the hospitality sector with the opening of its first standalone restaurant in the UK.

Consumer reporter Sam Walker visited the new IKEA restaurant in west London

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Consumer reporter Sam Walker visited the new IKEA restaurant in west LondonCredit: Peter Jordan
The restaurant is littered with IKEA-themed English and Swedish messages

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The restaurant is littered with IKEA-themed English and Swedish messagesCredit: Peter Jordan
Customers are served their order at counters at the back of the restaurant

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Customers are served their order at counters at the back of the restaurantCredit: Peter Jordan

The 300-square-metre site on busy King Street in Hammersmith, London, was teeming with life when I visited this week, despite opening just last month.

More than 30 staff now work in the restaurant, with enough seating for 75 people across two storeys, which are fronted with floor-to-ceiling glass panels.

Riccardo Minino, commercial manager for IKEA London City, said the west London site was chosen because of its proximity to the high street and local community.

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This follows other moves by IKEA in recent years to open more compact “XS Stores” located on high streets rather than its traditional larger sites on the outskirts of towns and cities.

“We have families and elderly people from different backgrounds coming in,” Riccardo said.

“It’s a mixed social space where people can integrate together.”

The restaurant lends itself to being a space that’s suitable for all demographics in practice.

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There’s free Wi-Fi available to customers, it’s based right next to a packed shopping centre and there’s self-serve coffee machines where you can pick up a cup for just 50p (if you’re an IKEA Family member).

There is also wheelchair access across the whole restaurant, and one tucked away corner with a microwave where parents can heat up their kids’ food, if they don’t fancy anything on the menu.

The restaurant feels like a fast food spot, but without the noise and hustle and bustle associated with a McDonald’s or Burger King.

IKEA is selling Christmas trees perfect for those who don’t have much space – and it’s less than £15

The first sight that greets you as you step inside the restaurant is three self-service screens where you order your food.

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After ordering, you receive a number which is called out by staff members at counters ahead of you for you to collect.

There is also a chilled section on the right hand side offering customers everything from soft drinks to cold desserts.

Those after a coffee can serve themselves from the machines on the left of the restaurant next to a set of stairs.

New IKEA store opening

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IKEA is opening a new store in spring 2025.

A new shop in Churchill Square, Brighton, will replace the former Debenhams, which has been empty since 2021.

The retailer has been moving way from big warehouse stores in recent years and has been targeting smaller plots in city centres.

It has already got a smaller shop in Hammersmith and has unveiled plans for a shop on London’s Oxford Street, replacing Topshop’s flagship store.

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What’s on the menu?

Foodies can choose from a host of cold dishes including cured salmon with a mustard, lemon and dill sauce for £3.50.

There’s also a shrimp and egg open sandwich for the same price that I had a chance to try.

All the ingredients tasted super fresh and the soft doughy bread was a highlight.

One gripe would be that the mayonnaise on top was a touch gloopy, but for £3.50 I couldn’t really complain.

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You can also get a marinated salmon wrap and Indian summer salad for £2.95 from the chilled section.

The children’s menu consists of meatballs with mash and peas, as well as four vegetarian plantballs with mash and peas for £1.95.

But those on a bit more of a budget can get a tomato sauce and pasta sauce for just 95p.

Adults can also get the classic meatball dish, which comes with peas, cream sauce and lingonberry jam for £5.50.

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I also got to try this, with the salty meatballs pairing nicely with the sweet jam, creamy mash and sauce.

Or there is salmon fillet with bean mix, mashed potatoes and a lemon and dill sauce for £6.95.

If you’re after a quick bite, you can snap up a hot dog for 85p or vegetable hot dog for just 60p.

Served until 11am, there is also a breakfast menu to pick from, including a small or large cooked breakfast which comes with bacon, sausage, hash brown, omelette, baked beans and tomato.

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Those looking for a quick caffeine fix can get a cup of coffee for 50p, if signed up to IKEA Family, or £1.25 if you’re not signed up to the loyalty scheme.

There is also soft serve ice cream on the menu for 75p.

Is it worth it?

The Hammersmith restaurant is definitely worth a trip if you live nearby, or happen to be shopping in the area and fancy a bite or drink.

It takes just minutes to order and be served your food as well, so is an ideal spot if you’re looking to get something quickly.

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The prices are pretty competitive too – where else are you going to find a cup of coffee for 50p in and around central London?

The microwave in the corner on the bottom floor is perfect for parents too, and a nice touch.

Customers can pick from cold main meals like the shrimp and egg salad sandwich

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Customers can pick from cold main meals like the shrimp and egg salad sandwichCredit: Peter Jordan
Customers can order food at self-service screens in the middle of the restaurant

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Customers can order food at self-service screens in the middle of the restaurantCredit: Peter Jordan

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

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How vulnerable is the UK to Trumponomics?

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UK chancellor Rachel Reeves does not want to “speculate or jump to conclusions” about what Donald Trump’s election means for the British economy.

“It’s an incredibly important trade relationship for the UK and US as well,” she told the Financial Times. “We want to grow that, as it has grown in recent years.”

Yet even if the UK’s reliance on services shields it from the worst of any fresh tariffs, the country remains vulnerable to global shocks in trade, business confidence and the bond market, say economists.

What are the risks to the UK?

Trump warned during the campaign that he wanted to impose a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports and 10 to 20 per cent on goods from other parts of the world.

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The UK is a relatively small, open economy, which makes it notably vulnerable to changes in import prices. While the EU is by far the UK’s biggest overall trade partner, in national rankings the US comes first when it comes to purchases of UK goods and services.

That said, analysts argue the UK should be less exposed to Trump’s ire than countries that run a large trade surplus with the US — such as China, Germany, or Mexico.

The US had a trade surplus with the UK, including an $8.2bn goods trade surplus in the January-September period, according to official US figures. However, partially because of differences in accounting for exports from the Channel Islands, the UK also reported a trade surplus with the US.

What happens if fresh tariffs come in?

If the UK ends up getting hit by US tariffs, vocal and economically sensitive industries would be affected. The UK exported about £8.2bn of pharmaceuticals, £7.5bn of cars and £5.3bn of mechanical power generators in the 12 months to the end of June 2024, according to official statistics. 

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Nevertheless, a relatively low proportion of UK goods exports overall go to the US — about 14 per cent in 2023, compared with more than 70 per cent for Canada and Mexico, according to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development data. 

The EU accounts for more than 40 per cent of UK goods and services exports, and about half of its goods exports. “The UK would not be in the front line of countries” hit by US tariffs, said Michael Saunders, a former Bank of England rate-setter who is now at Oxford Economics. “The UK is less vulnerable.”

Any inflationary impact from trade tensions would be mitigated if the UK opts against imposing retaliatory tariffs on the US, he added. 

Based on calculations that took into account the importance of the US as a trade partner and a country’s trade openness, Deutsche Bank concluded that the UK was not in the top 20 countries likely to be most affected by trade tariffs.

Total UK exports to the US are only 2 per cent of its GDP. As such, even assuming full pass-through from a fully implemented 10 per cent tariff increase, the GDP impact to Britain would be close to 0.2 per cent at most, said economist Allan Monks at JPMorgan.

What else does the UK sell to the US? 

The UK is the world’s second-largest services exporter after the US, accounting for about 7 per cent of global services exports. The UK will hope these do not get snarled up in Trump’s protectionist dash. 

British services exports made up for more than half of its total exports last year — a record high, according to official statistics. This is much larger than about a fifth for Germany. 

As a share of the economy, services exports account for about 18 per cent of UK GDP, the largest proportion of any G7 country, about double the figure for Germany and three times the shares of Italy and Canada.

“The UK would be little affected by the direct effects of US import tariffs,” said Elliott Jordan-Doak, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “But the direct effects of Mr Trump’s likely tariffs are only the start.”

What are the wider risks?

IMF analysis suggests global growth would suffer a blow if Trump goes ahead with his trade plans, even though the exact details of his tariff proposals remain unclear.

Any trade war between the US and key partners would have a great impact on EU export powerhouses such as Germany — leading to knock-on effects for the UK economy.

Christian Keller, an economist at Barclays, warned that uncertainty caused by the spectre of tariffs would “negatively affect investment and, more generally, confidence levels in Europe” even before they take effect, which may not be until the second half of 2025.

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The German economy is heavily at risk of US tariffs because of its massive manufacturing sector. It is forecast to grow only by 0.6 per cent in 2025 after marginally contracting this year, according to data compiled by Consensus Economics.

The IMF has modelled the combination of tit-for-tat tariffs, a 10-year extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, reduced net migration and higher global borrowing costs. It warned of a 0.8 per cent hit to forecast global economic output next year and a 1.3 per cent blow in 2026.

What about other US policies?

Trump has vowed not only to extend tax cuts passed during his first term but to push through fresh reductions in corporate tax rates as well as reductions at an individual level on income from overtime pay, tips and pensions. He also wants to deport millions of undocumented immigrants.

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The federal debt is projected to swell by an additional $7.5tn in 10 years if Trump follows through with his proposals, according to pre-election analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

This raises the prospect of bond market investors taking fright at US fiscal laxity and associated inflation risks. If this happened, there could be contagion risks for other fiscally vulnerable countries, including the UK, said Sushil Wadhwani, a former BoE policymaker.

Bond market vigilantes could “switch their attention to us, having first had a go at US Treasuries”, he said. “As a small, open economy we can’t insulate ourselves from trouble globally.”

Additional reporting by George Parker

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Assura boosts profits as portfolio value grows to £3.1bn

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Assura boosts profits as portfolio value grows to £3.1bn

The profit boost comes amid a £25.4m rise in investment property value to £3.1bn.

The post Assura boosts profits as portfolio value grows to £3.1bn appeared first on Property Week.

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