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The Trump economy: How big? How beautiful?

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If Donald Trump’s campaign promises about things such as immigration, the dollar, trade and tax policy are realised, the US will start an economic experiment without recent precedent. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter make their best guesses about a very confusing and unfamiliar future. Also, we short incumbents and go long the American project.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

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Shoppers to face food price hike after Budget’s tax raid on employers, warns Sainsbury’s boss

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Shoppers to face food price hike after Budget’s tax raid on employers, warns Sainsbury’s boss

SHOPPERS will face higher food prices after the Budget’s tax raid on employers, the boss of Sainsbury’s has said.

Simon Roberts, chief executive of the UK’s second biggest supermarket, said the National Insurance hike would cost it £140million.

Sainsbury's chief executive Simon Roberts warns shoppers will face food price hikes thanks to the Budget’s tax raid on employers

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Sainsbury’s chief executive Simon Roberts warns shoppers will face food price hikes thanks to the Budget’s tax raid on employersCredit: Sainsbury

His comments come after Wetherspoons and Marks & Spencer yesterday warned of a combined £160million hit from the Chancellor’s decision to increase employer contributions.

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Mr Roberts said: “It will lead to inflation and it’s pretty clear it’s going to come pretty fast.

“Given the low margins of the industry, there isn’t the capacity to absorb this level of un­expected cost inflation.”

The supermarket chief also expressed his disappointment that the Government had ignored his calls to relieve the extra staffing costs on retailers by finally overhauling business rates.

Retailers will face another increase in the property tax next year while they wait for further details of a promised reform.

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He added: “We came out in support of Make Work Pay but on the basis there was a clear commitment on business rates reform, because it is not a fair tax on stores.”

Sainsbury’s pays £500million- a-year on business rates, half of its £1billion annual tax bill.

Yesterday, it posted a 4.7 per cent rise in underlying profits to £356million.

Food sales were up 5 per cent in six months but revenues in the Argos division fell by the same margin.

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Martin Lewis issues warning for 700,000 workers as National Insurance hikes have ‘direct impact’ on take home pay

Boohoo bite-back

BOOHOO has issued a punchy rebuttal to Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group — saying the tycoon’s “continual legal letters and public posturing” is not in shareholders’ interests.

Mr Ashley has demanded a board seat and guarantees that any disposal of online brands would be put to a vote.

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Boohoo said it would only consider giving Frasers a seat if it ruled out making a takeover offer or plans to merge it with a rival, such as Asos, which Mr Ashley also has a stake in.

Nissan hits brakes

THOUSANDS of workers at Nissan’s Sunderland site are facing an uncertain future after the Japanese car giant launched a radical plan to cut 9,000 jobs globally.

Nissan slashed its profit forecasts by 70 per cent as it admitted that it had been too optimistic about the demand for battery-powered vehicles and had not produced enough hybrid models.

Workers at Nissan's Sunderland site are facing an uncertain future after the car giant launched a plan to cut jobs

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Workers at Nissan’s Sunderland site are facing an uncertain future after the car giant launched a plan to cut jobsCredit: AFP

The car maker said the “severe situation” has prompted it to now cut global production by one-fifth and squeeze £2billion worth of costs out of the business.

Last year, Nissan — which employs 6,000 on Wearside — said it would manufacture three electric models, including an EV Qashqai model in the UK, as part of a government-backed £2billion commitment.

On average, a new Nissan car has been produced at the Sunderland factory every two minutes, every hour of every day, since its opening in 1986.

A broad band of BT cuts

BT broadband bills are set to rise further as the telecom giant counts £100million of extra costs from the Budget.

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Boss Allison Kirkby said it may have to offset the increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions through higher pricing, reducing supplier costs or replacing some roles with artificial intelligence.

BT boss Allison Kirkby said the firm may have to offset the increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions through higher pricing

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BT boss Allison Kirkby said the firm may have to offset the increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions through higher pricing

“It’s a new inflationary pressure that we need to suffer in our business”, she said.

BT already increases bills every year by the rate of consumer inflation, with an additional 3.9 per cent on top — customers were charged an extra 7.9 per cent this year.

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Ms Kirkby said that the £100million hit was just 0.5 per cent of BT’s gigantic cost base as it ploughs cash into rolling out fibre broadband.

It posted a 10 per cent fall in half-year profits to £967million and confirmed that 2,000 more jobs had been cut as part of its ongoing plan to reduce the workforce by 100,000.

Home price rise

HOUSE prices have hit a record high according to the UK’s biggest mortgage lender.

Figures from Halifax show the average price of a home in the UK hit £293,999 in October, beating the post-pandemic record of £293,507 in June 2022.

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Property prices rose by 0.2 per cent last month — the fourth month of growth in a row.

But Halifax cautioned that mortgage rates staying higher for longer and a hike in stamp duty for first-time buyers could affect the rate of price increases in the future.

ITV pinching pennies

LOVE Island broadcaster ITV plans to make £20million of extra cost savings this year after the hangover of Hollywood writer and actor strikes delayed production revenues.

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It posted an 8 per cent fall in third quarter revenues to £2.7billion.

Wood chopper

ENGINEERING firm Wood Group lost almost two-thirds of its value yesterday after it launched an independent review of the business.

The FTSE 250 firm is now worth just £338million after its shares fell by 61 per cent to 48.43p.

In July, Dubai– based Sidara pulled out of a deal that valued Wood Group at £1.56billion.

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It added that Deloitte would probe its “contracts, governance and controls”.

Investors fear it will have to make hefty writedowns of the value of contracts.

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Republicans flip Pennsylvania Senate seat

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Republicans flip Pennsylvania Senate seat

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M&S shoppers rush to buy ‘gorgeous’ Christmas light up centre-piece scanning for £7.50 instead of £10

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M&S shoppers rush to buy ‘gorgeous’ Christmas light up centre-piece scanning for £7.50 instead of £10

SHOPPERS are racing to Ocado to get their hands on a Christmas centre-piece scanning for £7.50 rather than £10.

The M&S Marks & Sparkle London Light Up Scented Candle has been hailed as the perfect winter goodie, especially with 15 per cent knocked off the price.

M&S has placed some popular festive treats on the shelves this year

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M&S has placed some popular festive treats on the shelves this yearCredit: Getty
The M&S Marks & Sparkle London Light Up Scented Candle can be bought on Ocado for £7.50

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The M&S Marks & Sparkle London Light Up Scented Candle can be bought on Ocado for £7.50
When the wick is lit the LEDs light up the charming London-themed artwork

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When the wick is lit the LEDs light up the charming London-themed artwork

With an iconic London scene printed on the glass jar and LEDs that light up when the wick is lit, it becomes the perfect centre-piece for any display.

The neroli, lime and bergamont infused candle has become a Christmas favourite with customers jumping to the M&S comment section to compliment it.

One user said: “This is not only a beautiful candle when lit but also when it’s not lit, it sparkles and has a beautiful fresh smell.”

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Another added: “I bought it as a beautiful London themed momento, having received it it looks beautiful with a most attractive design in a perfect subtle colour and it smells gorgeous – can’t wait to display and light it up over the festive period.”

A third user responded: “Beautiful candle, really pretty when it’s lit up. Quite a delicate scent. Bought as a present and my friend loved it!”

You can get a hold of this candle directly from the M&S website or in store for £10.

But if you want to get £2.50 discount you can head over to Ocado where it’s 75 per cent of the original price.

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Through the Ocado website you add the festive candle to your basked for £7.50.

If you don’t have an Ocado account you can sign up through the website and book a delivery slot that suits you.

First time customers can often receive a discount so make sure to check for voucher codes.

Shoppers race to buy M&S’ sparkly ‘heels of the season’ – they’re perfect for M&S but are selling out FAST

When using grocery delivery services like Ocado, there may be discounts and price drops at the checkout but keep in mind that there is often a charge for delivery.

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The price will vary depending on the delivery option, which are one-hour delivery slots, next-day delivery, and same-day delivery.

M&S also has a delivery fee so remember to factor that in when checking out your Christmas treats.

The M&S Christmas room spray has also been getting a lot of love from shoppers.

For a sweet £6 this mandarin, clove and cinnamon room spray could elevate your festive experience.

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Customers are saying it simply ‘screams Christmas.’

Another item that’s been flying off the shelves is The Magical Snowing Forest in M&S food halls, which has taken off on social media.

The chocolate box can come home with you for £15 and even has a charming snow-globe effect.

If this isn’t enough chocolate the Santa Chocolate Sleigh has been selling out fast as it’s only £5 a pop.

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The tin sleigh holds individually wrapped milk chocolates inside a parcel bag that is a replica of Santa’s sleigh.

How to save money on Christmas shopping

Consumer reporter Sam Walker reveals how you can save money on your Christmas shopping.

Limit the amount of presents – buying presents for all your family and friends can cost a bomb.

Instead, why not organise a Secret Santa between your inner circles so you’re not having to buy multiple presents.

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Plan ahead – if you’ve got the stamina and budget, it’s worth buying your Christmas presents for the following year in the January sales.

Make sure you shop around for the best deals by using price comparison sites so you’re not forking out more than you should though.

Buy in Boxing Day sales – some retailers start their main Christmas sales early so you can actually snap up a bargain before December 25.

Delivery may cost you a bit more, but it can be worth it if the savings are decent.

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Shop via outlet stores – you can save loads of money shopping via outlet stores like Amazon Warehouse or Office Offcuts.

They work by selling returned or slightly damaged products at a discounted rate, but usually any wear and tear is minor.

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Control of House hangs in balance as vote count continues in US

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Donald Trump’s ability to push through his legislative agenda hangs in the balance as votes continue to be counted in more than two dozen congressional races that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives.

While Trump secured a stunning victory in this week’s presidential election, and Republicans will have a majority in the US Senate, a long list of House races have yet to be called, leaving it unclear whether Republicans will hold on to the lower chamber.

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If Democrats are able to reclaim control of the House, they could act as a bulwark against the Trump White House and a Republican-held Senate.

But given the scale of Republican wins on Tuesday night many non-partisan analysts expect the lower chamber will probably remain under GOP control. Trump improved his margins in 48 out of 50 states and is on course to be the first Republican presidential candidate to win the national popular vote in two decades.

Experts at the Cook Political Report wrote in a memo on Wednesday that the “most likely outcome is a GOP trifecta, including a continued narrow Republican House majority”.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson — a close Trump ally who is expected to keep the top job in the House should Republicans hold on to the chamber — has said the GOP is “poised to have unified government in the White House, Senate and House”.

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In an interview with Fox News on Wednesday, Johnson said Republicans would be “ready to play ball on day one”.

“President Trump wants to be aggressive. He wants to go big, and we’re excited about that,” he said. “We’re going to get to play offence, because I’m absolutely convinced we’re going to have the White House, the Senate and the House. I think we will deliver that majority.”

Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader who would probably be Speaker if Democrats were able to reclaim control of the chamber, has struck a more cautious note.

“It has yet to be decided who will control the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress,” Jeffries said on Thursday. “We must count every vote and wait until the results in Oregon, Arizona and California are clear.”

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Many close congressional races have been slow to be decided because states will continue to count mail-in ballots so long as they are postmarked by election day. California has historically been slow to count votes — and nearly a dozen races in the state have yet to be called.

The delays are not without precedent. Two years ago, after the 2022 midterms, it took more than a week for the Associated Press to call that Republicans had retaken control of the House.

While Republicans are certain to retake control of the Senate after flipping three seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, the margin of their majority also remains in the balance, with results still being tabulated in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada.

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Putin says Trump’s Ukraine proposals merit attention

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Putin says Trump’s Ukraine proposals merit attention

Russian president congratulates Republican leader on his election victory

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Chinese exports soar as Beijing prepares for Trump’s tariff threats

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Montage showing Donald Trump with an American flag backdrop, framed by a red map of the US

This article is an on-site version of our FirstFT newsletter. Subscribers can sign up to our Asia, Europe/Africa or Americas edition to receive the newsletter every weekday. Explore all of our newsletters here

In today’s newsletter:


Good morning. China’s exports soared in October and its trade surplus ballooned, official data showed yesterday, just days after Donald Trump won the US presidential election with promises of sweeping tariffs to suppress imports from China.

The bumper export figures are expected to inflame tensions between Trump’s incoming administration and Beijing. The president-elect, a self-described “Tariff Man”, is expected to move quickly and “ruthlessly” in threatening the US’s trading partners with steep levies on their imports once he takes office, say former trade officials and advisers.

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Trump has threatened levies of up to 20 per cent on all imports and 60 per cent on those from China — measures that are more stringent and broader than those deployed during his first term in office.

China’s October export surge was probably partly because “the prospect of a Trump victory” and anticipated tariffs spurred exporters to front-load shipments, said Shuang Ding, head of greater China economic research at Standard Chartered.

Analysts said China’s burgeoning trade surplus — which hit $95.7bn in October compared with forecasts of $75bn — would provoke Trump.

“Of course China will be on top of the list,” said Wang Dong, executive director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University. “The stability, the relative improvement that we have been witnessing . . . will probably come to an end.” Here’s how Beijing could respond to aggressive new tariffs under a second Trump administration.

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Trump’s victory continues to reverberate around the US and the world — here’s more coverage:

  • Japan: The country’s top currency diplomat said the government was ready to take action against “excess moves” in the yen as Asian currencies showed further weakness against a resurgent US dollar in the wake of Trump’s victory.

  • ‘Brave new world’: Trump’s re-election threatens to accelerate the end of the US-led postwar order — if not render it irrelevant.

  • Blame game: Joe Biden called on Americans to “bring down the temperature” in US politics, as Democrats began pointing fingers over Harris’s heavy defeat against Trump. Some critics say the party misread voters.

  • From felon to president-elect: Trump, a twice-impeached convicted criminal, defied assassins and the political odds to win back the White House.

Sign up for our White House Watch newsletter for more analysis on the far-reaching repercussions of Trump’s second term. And here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today and over the weekend:

  • Economic data: Japan reports household spending for September and Taiwan releases October trade figures. China reports October inflation data on Saturday.

  • Results: Tata Motors and Sony report earnings.

How well did you keep up with the news this week? Take our quiz.

Five more top stories

1. Nissan has launched an emergency turnaround plan that includes 9,000 job losses and a voluntary 50 per cent pay cut for chief executive Makoto Uchida after unveiling it had fallen to a quarterly loss. Japan’s third-largest carmaker said it would slash global production capacity by 20 per cent. Read more about the troubles at Nissan.

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2. The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point yesterday, marking a decline in the pace from September’s half-point cut. Its chair Jay Powell hailed the strength of the US economy and said he would not resign if Donald Trump asked him to.

3. Bangladesh has staved off more power cuts by India’s Adani Group after supplying the conglomerate with a new credit letter and reassurances that it will clear its mounting electricity bill. Billionaire Gautam Adani’s group began reducing electricity supplies to Bangladesh last week over a backlog of overdue payments estimated by the group to be about $850mn.

4. German opposition leader Friedrich Merz has called for snap elections as early as January following the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s government. Merz rejected the timetable set out by the German chancellor after he broke up the governing coalition, plunging Europe’s largest economy into political turmoil.

5. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said it would be “unacceptable” and “suicidal” for Europe to ask Ukraine to make concessions to Russia in exchange for a potential peace deal. The Ukrainian president’s comments came at a European security summit hosted by Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has broken with EU and Nato policy to push for immediate peace.

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The Big Read

Montage showing Donald Trump with an American flag backdrop, framed by a red map of the US
© FT montage/Getty

In the end, it wasn’t even close. A presidential election long forecast to dance on a knife’s edge very quickly turned into a rout for Donald Trump. Today’s Big Read has the five maps and charts that show how the Republican candidate defied conventional assumptions about his support and redrew America’s political map.

We’re also reading . . . 

  • The lure of the strongman: Trump has fundamentally shifted the norms and ideology of American politics, writes Gideon Rachman.

  • Australian business scandals: A spate of controversies has put the country’s boards on notice, Nic Fildes explains.

  • World trade: Just how dependent is the world trading system on the US? We’re about to stress-test the question with Trump headed back to the White House, writes Alan Beattie.

Chart of the day

With their crushing defeat in this week’s US election, the Democrats joined Britain’s Tories and Japan’s Liberal Democrats in 2024’s graveyard of incumbents in an unprecedented year of elections, writes our chief data reporter John Burn-Murdoch.

Take a break from the news

Our Lego-loving food writer Tim Hayward dined at the Mini Chef café at the toymakers’ Danish headquarters. A meal prepared by tiny plastic people sparked a revelation about hospitality.

© Simon Bailly

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