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Treasury market liquidity: fine but fragile?

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Halloween is still over a month away, but here’s a scary chart of Bloomberg’s US Government Securities Liquidity Index.

Line chart of US Government Securities Liquidity Index showing 👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻👻

The higher the score, the less liquid the $27tn Treasury market is. So according to this index — which is derived from how dispersed Treasury prices are from a smoothed yield curve — the US government bond market is now less liquid than it was at the peak of the March 2020 chaos.

FT Alphaville has been keeping an eye on this measure because it shows a radically different picture from what analysts and officials are saying, and what the headline data seems to indicate. August was the first month in history when the average daily notional of Treasuries being traded went over $1tn, up 37 per cent year-on-year, according to Coalition Greenwich. Treasury futures trading is up by a similar amount.

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Which is why this annual check-up of the Treasury market’s liquidity from the New York Federal Reserve is so timely.

The tl;dr is that bid-ask spreads remain modest — and not nearly where they were in March 2020 — while market depth remains reasonable, if subdued after the Fed’s interest rate hikes.

The chart plots five-day moving averages of average daily bid-ask spreads for the on-the-run two-, five-, and ten-year notes in the interdealer market from September 1, 2019 to August 31, 2024. Spreads are measured in 32nds of a point, where a point equals one percent of par.  © NYFRB
The chart plots five-day moving averages of average daily depth for the on-the-run two-, five-, and ten-year notes in the interdealer market from September 1, 2019 to August 31, 2024. Data are for order book depth at the inside tier, averaged across the bid and offer sides. Depth is measured in millions of U.S. dollars par and plotted on a logarithmic scale.  © NYFRB

As a result, the estimated price impact of a $100mn Treasury trade is also un-alarming. Big trades make a bigger splash than they used to, but the deterioration seems mostly caused by higher interest rate volatility, which is now coming down a bit.

The author — Michael Fleming, the head of capital markets studies at the NY Fed’s research group — does explore the discrepancy between these measures of liquidity and that shown by the Bloomberg’s index, but mostly shrugs it off:

While the Bloomberg measure has recently risen, it remains far below its peak during the GFC. Moreover, it remained far below its GFC peak in March 2020 even when direct liquidity measures approached GFC levels and the Fed unleashed massive asset purchases to address the dysfunction then roiling the market. It follows that the recent behavior of the Bloomberg index seems less notable when examined in a longer historical context. The reasons behind the disparate performances of the different measures are an interesting area for future research. 

This research should probably focus on the Bloomberg index’s underlying composition. Barclays analysts have previously noted that the Bloomberg index might have been artificially boosted this summer because of the inclusion of some very old 30-year Treasuries, which are for motley reasons trading extremely rich to what the shape of the yield curve would normally indicate.

FTAV has another, admittedly more speculative take. These kinds of price-dispersion-versus-fair-prices indices supposedly measure liquidity conditions because a lot of wonky prices indicate that there’s insufficient capital in the market to take advantage of them.

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But this would seem to be a better measure of fragility rather than liquidity?

In other words, Treasury market liquidity might be basically fine and perhaps improving, but the underlying fragility of the market is increasing, as banks devote less and less balance sheet to lubricating it? In which case we won’t really know how healthy it is until the next shock hits.

Further reading:
The bond market liquidity ‘trilemma’ (FTAV)
People are worried (again) about bond market liquidity (FTAV)

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Raspberry Pi boosted by higher than expected profits

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Shares in Raspberry Pi jumped on Tuesday after the UK computer maker reported higher than expected profits in its first earnings report since its debut on the London Stock Exchange in June.

The Cambridge-based company, which makes small, low-cost computers, said sales volumes were slightly lower than expected but weighted towards higher-margin products, boosting profits.

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Shares rose 8 per cent to 376p. They floated at 280p in June.

Raspberry Pi’s initial public offering, at a valuation of £542mn, was seen as a rare victory for the London market, which has been struggling to attract listings particularly from technology companies, which generally prefer New York.

The company reported a gross profit of $34.2mn in the first six months of 2024, higher than internal forecasts and a 47 per cent increase on the same period in 2023. Revenue for the period was $144mn, up from $89.3mn last year. It kept its full-year outlook unchanged.

Raspberry Pi began selling its products to the public in 2012. It was set up under the auspices of the Raspberry Pi Foundation, a UK charity founded in 2008 to promote computing to young people.

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The company said the £178.9mn raised in the IPO would be used to fund engineering projects, with new product releases scheduled before the end of 2024.

Its listing was seen as a boost for the London stock market at a time when the listings market had been very quiet and with technology companies generally seeking to access deeper capital markets and higher valuations in the US.

Cambridge-based chipmaker Arm, one of Raspberry Pi’s shareholders, listed in New York for a $52bn valuation in September 2023.

Raspberry Pi’s chief executive Eben Upton told the Financial Times in June that there was too much gloom about the prospects of the UK stock market. “Many of the stories that people tell about the differences between the US and the UK — particularly this sort of magical [high valuations] — don’t seem to be real,” he said.

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Fundment further expands wrapper range with cash Isa and cash Lifetime Isa

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Fundment further expands wrapper range with cash Isa and cash Lifetime Isa

Fundment has launched a cash Isa and cash Lifetime Isa, backed by a fully digital cash investment system.

It has partnered with Investec Bank to offer a 12-month fixed rate deposit within its cash Isa and cash Lifetime Isa options, with plans to expand cash investment choices in the future.

This follows the July launch of the Fundment stocks and shares Lifetime Isa (Lisa) and addresses growing adviser and client demand for cash options.

Fundment founder and chief executive Ola Abdul said: “We’re expanding our Isa range in line with adviser demand.

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“This move, coupled with the full digitisation of our underlying cash investment functionality, demonstrates our commitment to providing advisers with the tools they need to serve their clients effectively.”

The platform has also fully digitised its cash investment process, streamlining operations for advisers.

From digital account opening and client approval to automated payments of fees, income, and dividends, the process is intuitive and designed to save time, allowing advisers to focus on delivering value to their clients.

Investec head of funding partnerships David Hunt said: “Our collaboration with Fundment aligns perfectly with our commitment to tech-driven, digitally-enabled financial solutions.

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“By leveraging our API, Fundment has created a frictionless experience for advisers and their clients.”

Beyond the 12-month FRD in cash Isas and cash Lisas, Fundment offers fixed term deposits within pension and general investment wrappers.

These Investec Bank products are available in three-, six-, 12-, and 24-month terms.

Factbox: Cash Isas and cash Lifetime Isas
  • Cash Isa allowance: For the 2024/25 tax year, the maximum that can be contributed to a cash Isa is £20,000, with tax-free interest.
  • Contributions up to £4,000 are permitted into a cash Lifetime Isa (Lisa), with a government bonus of 25% (or up to £1,000 annually).
  • The Fundment cash Isa is available from age 18, while the cash Lisa is for those aged 18-39.
  • Many cash Isas allow flexible withdrawals, but early withdrawals from a cash Lisa (for non-home buying reasons before age 60) incur a 25% penalty.
  • Cash Lisa funds can be used penalty-free for a first home purchase under £450,000.
  • Isas can be transferred between providers without loss of allowance.
  • Currently only one cash Lisa per tax year can be opened and funded but, following changes enacted in April 2024, it is possible to open more than one cash Isa in the same tax year.

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Singapore’s former transport minister pleads guilty to graft charges

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Singapore’s former transport minister has pleaded guilty to charges of obtaining gifts as a public servant and obstruction of justice, in a rare graft case in the city-state that prides itself on transparency and clean governance

S Iswaran, who was instrumental in bringing the Formula One Grand Prix to Singapore as transport minister, had initially denied any wrongdoing and vowed to clear his name after he was slapped with 35 charges this year.

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But in an unexpected move on Tuesday, prosecutors amended the charges at the start of his trial to just five, and Iswaran pleaded guilty to all of them.

The amended charges include four counts of obtaining valuable items and one of obstruction of justice. The remaining 30 charges will be taken into consideration for sentencing, prosecutors said.

Iswaran, 62, is accused of obtaining gifts with a total value of S$403,297.92 (US$312,494.20) from two local businessmen during his tenure as minister. 

Prosecutors have sought a jail term of six to seven months. Iswaran’s lawyers are asking for no more than eight weeks, according to Singaporean media Channel News Asia and the Straits Times.  

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The corruption case against Iswaran is the first involving a Singaporean minister since 1986. Singapore prides itself on being one of the world’s least corrupt countries, and its ministers are among the highest paid — earning about S$1mn a year — in part to discourage corruption.

The case comes at a sensitive time for the ruling People’s Action party, which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965.

Lawrence Wong was sworn in as Singapore’s fourth prime minister in May, becoming only the city-state’s second leader from outside the founding Lee family.

The Asian financial hub is set to hold elections in 2025, and while the PAP is expected to win again, its reputation has taken a hit from a recent series of scandals, including the corruption allegations against Iswaran.

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Iswaran resigned this year after he was charged by authorities. He has said he will return his salary and allowances received since the beginning of the investigation in July last year.

According to a January charge sheet seen by the Financial Times, the kickbacks allegedly included tickets to English Premier League football matches, Formula One races and plays including Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Hamilton and Kinky Boots, as well as a business class flight from Doha to Singapore in 2022.

Singapore’s Corrupt Practices Investigation Bureau has said Iswaran received some of the alleged bribes from Ong Beng Seng, one of the city-state’s most high-profile property tycoons, for “advancing (his) business interests”.

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Ong has not been charged. He is the founder of Hotel Properties, which has brands such as the Four Seasons and InterContinental in its property portfolio.

The company has previously said Ong is providing details of his dealings with Iswaran to the watchdog.

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Legal & General appoints new asset management boss in drive for growth

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Legal & General has appointed a chief executive for its newly created asset management division, picking a US executive with expertise in private assets in a signal of how it plans to grow Britain’s largest asset manager.

In the latest in a string of announcements under new chief António Simões, L&G said on Tuesday that it had appointed Eric Adler from US insurer Prudential Financial as its new asset management chief, subject to regulatory approval.

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L&G, which has more than £1.1tn in assets under management, has combined its fund manager with its private markets business in the unit.

Michelle Scrimgeour, the current chief of the asset manager, Legal & General Investment Management, will step down after a transition period.

Adler, who leads the private alternatives business at Prudential Financial’s asset manager, said he would aim to drive L&G’s ambitions for “achieving profitable growth and mobilising the power of investment to drive economic opportunity and positive social impact”.

He added: “Bringing together scale, global distribution, and expertise across public and private markets and asset classes, L&G is well placed to address the full breadth of client needs, including the increasing demand for responsible, blended investment solutions.”

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Simões said Adler had a “track record of building businesses alongside broad investment expertise, deep international experience and a strong client focus”.

Adler previously ran the real estate unit at Prudential Financial’s fund manager, among other previous roles including as head of its European business.

L&G is targeting £500mn-£600mn in operating profits from its asset management business by 2028 as well as growing its private markets platform from £52bn to £85bn. 

The announcement comes just a week after L&G agreed to sell its housebuilder Cala Homes as part of a simplification exercise by Simões.

The chief executive, who started in January, announced at an investor day in June how he would create a more streamlined group with a clearer investment case. 

But L&G’s shares have not yet responded. They are down 10 per cent since the start of the year, against a 7 per cent rise in the UK blue-chip stock index.

L&G, which became a significant investor in everything from houses to science parks under previous chief Sir Nigel Wilson, earlier this week announced a tie-up with UK state-sponsored pension scheme Nest and Dutch pension fund manager PGGM to invest up to £1bn in build-to-rent properties in the UK.

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Raspberry Pi books strong profits in first interims since London floatation

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Chinese property companies rose in early trading on Tuesday after the country’s central bank governor announced a cut to downpayments for second homes, part of a raft of measures aimed at boosting growth.

Pan Gongsheng said downpayments for first and second homes would be “unified” at 15 per cent. Previously the minimum downpayment on second homes was 25 per cent.

The Hang Seng Mainland Properties index, which consists of large Chinese property companies listed in Hong Kong, rose as much as 5.8 per cent in early trading. KE Holdings, China’s largest online property transaction platform, led gains as it jumped more than 13 per cent.

The broader Hang Seng index rose 2 per cent, leading gains among major regional indices for the day.

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Questions to ask prospective employers in a job interview

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Question marks

Shuttterstock / ComicsansThere is often a point during job interviews where the candidate is asked if they have any questions to put to the employer.

This part of an interview can be overlooked during preparations — but asking the right questions can help a prospective employee decide if the role is a good fit for them, while showing the employer that the candidate genuinely wants a career in advice.

So, what are the best questions to ask?

I’d want to understand how a firm embraced technology to assist its clients and how it provided exceptional client service

Nobody wants to feel like the proverbial fish out of water in a new job, which is why understanding a company’s culture is so important.

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When people talk about company culture, they are referring to things such as shared values, attitudes and behaviour that shape how a business operates.

“Company culture is becoming more important to candidates, with 45% of employees and business leaders ranking this as the most important factor when looking for a job,” says Equilibrium Financial Planning culture and recruitment manager Kelly Eyton-Jones.

By asking about trending topics — such as the Consumer Duty — candidates can show a genuine interest in the industry

She believes that asking questions around team dynamics and work-life balance can be helpful for job seekers in assessing whether the work environment aligns with their preferences and values.

Financial services recruiters often find that, when hires don’t work out, it is due to a misalignment of culture and values. These experts say asking questions up front, during the interview, can help to avoid this.

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“Questions around ethics, continuous professional development, targets for report writing and the firm’s own plans for growth are always good areas to focus on,” says recruiter Fram Search’s director of financial services, Kelly Biggar.

Recruiter Exchange Street’s director, Andy Taylor, says candidates need to find out what it is really like to work at the company in question.

Ask things like, ‘What is the most important thing you would want me to achieve?’ You can then take a view on whether it’s achievable

“Asking, ‘What is the culture like here?’ is a weird question, so I’d break it down. Ask questions like, ‘What characteristics do people who do this job well seem to share?’” he says.

“One that’s a bit more challenging is, ‘What would the people in the team say it’s like to work here?’ That can draw the interviewer out to talk about any issues the firm has faced and what it is doing about it.”

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Candidates will be able to ask more probing questions around culture if they have done a bit of digging beforehand.

“Do your research — and that shouldn’t stop at the company website,” says Succession Wealth recruitment manager Charlotte Turner.

“Look at employee and company content on LinkedIn and social media. Check out what awards the company has been nominated for or won, events they’ve been involved with, and really get a sense of what’s important within the company culture. Then ask questions related to those aspects you identify with.”

Enquiring about how the changes in the Consumer Duty have impacted the business shows they have undertaken thorough research

Another subject candidates may want to ask about is the firm’s compliance culture.

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Karishma Galaiya, senior manager of investments at compliance consultant Thistle Initiatives, says showing an interest here demonstrates that the candidate understands the sector and the importance of delivering positive consumer outcomes.

“Enquiring about the organisation’s implementation of the Consumer Duty may also offer insight into how consumers are treated,” she says.

Training and development

We have all heard cautionary tales of people joining a firm but not progressing, or being given unrealistic targets. To avoid this at the start, commentators recommend asking questions about training and development during the job interview.

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Eyton-Jones suggests finding out about the qualifications or exams that must be completed in the first year, or the types of client they may expect to work with.

“These questions not only help to manage candidates’ expectations but also provide them with valuable insights into their potential long-term work,” she says.

Questions around ethics, continuous professional development, targets for report writing and the firm’s own plans for growth are always good areas

For Taylor, tactful questions such as, ‘What will the first 12 months look like?’ and, ‘How will you train me?’ can determine whether a firm invests in developing its people.

“You can also ask things like, ‘How will you measure my performance?’ and, ‘What is the most important thing you would want me to achieve?’ You can then take a view on whether it’s achievable,” he says.

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“If the business sounds great but expects you to do too much — well, nobody can do that.”

Industry trends and topics

Employers want to hire genuinely enthusiastic people — not someone who simply wants a job. So, anything that shows that a candidate has done their homework on the firm and the profession will go down well.

“By asking about current events and trending topics, candidates can demonstrate a genuine interest in the industry,” says Eyton-Jones.

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Company culture is becoming more important to candidates, with 45% of employees and business leaders ranking this as the most important factor

“For instance, enquiring about how the changes in the Consumer Duty have impacted the business shows they have undertaken thorough research and have a sincere interest in the industry.”

Asking about a firm’s approach to technology is also a good idea.

“If I were starting out, I’d want to understand how a firm embraced technology to assist its clients and how it provided exceptional client service,” says Twenty7tec chief executive James Tucker.

“If a company is getting these things right, it’s very likely to be a great environment to learn in and develop a long career.”

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This article featured in the September 2024 edition of Money Marketing

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