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The UK could face a £22bn hit to its exports if Donald Trump imposes a blanket 20% tariff on all imports into the US, according to a new analysis.
UK exports to the world could fall more than 2.6% due to lower trade with the US and knock-on effects globally, economists at the University of Sussex’s Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) said.
This fall could happen if the President-elect went through with his repeated campaign promise to levy a 20% tax on all imports, and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.
The decline in trade would be the equivalent of an annual hit to UK economic output of 0.8%.
Although Trump’s aggressive pledges could be a negotiating tactic, the “possibility of these tariffs being imposed is certainly there”, researcher Nicolo Tamberi said in a blog post.
The main UK sectors likely to be hit would be fishing, petroleum, and mining, which could see exports fall by around a fifth.
The pharmaceutical and electrical sectors would also be hit.
Even businesses that are not exporters themselves could be affected.
For example, firms supplying transportation services, which rely on strong trade flows, would take a hit.
Insurance and finance services also support the underlying goods trade.
However, some sectors could benefit from reduced China exports to the US.
Textiles and clothing could see gains due to reduced competition, if Chinese exports were hit by much higher Trump tariffs.
Just how sharp the increase in border taxes under Donald Trump might be remains unclear. Some diplomats have pointed to more pragmatic suggestions about lighter tariffs for US allies.
But Trump’s top adviser on trade, former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, is a strong supporter of the tactic.
The Foreign Secretary David Lammy recently told the BBC’s Newscast podcast: “We will seek to ensure and to get across to the United States – and I believe that they would understand this – that hurting your closest allies cannot be in your medium or long-term interests, whatever the pursuit of public policy in relation to some of the problems posed by China.”
But the British ambassador in the US under Trump’s previous administration, Lord Darroch, has warned the UK should not underestimate the risks.
“I’m a pessimist,” he told BBC Newsnight on Thursday. “Trump did tariffs in his first term on steel and aluminium. He wants to go much bigger this time. He believes in it – it’s not a bluff. I think he will do it.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey have both said they will continue to make the argument for free trade.
The UK might be in a position to have to choose whether to try to cut a side deal with the Trump White House to avoid tariffs.
Alternatively the UK could join with other Western and European allies to send a clear message to Trump and the US Congress that American exporters would also be badly hit by such policies.
The CITP numbers only assume that the US sets tariffs on the world, and do not assume a likely trade retaliation from Europe or Asia.
The IMF recently warned that a large scale trade war would drive up inflation and lead to the world economy shrinking 7%, effectively the size of the French and German economies combined.
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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
FT.com will bring you the crossword from Monday to Saturday as well as the Weekend FT Polymath.
Subscribers can now solve the FT’s Daily Cryptic, Polymath and FT Weekend crosswords on the iOS and Android apps
As a teenager in the 1960s and with more than a soft spot for Hendrix’s music, I raise a glass to Michael Hann’s choice of Jimi’s Woodstock performance of “Star-Spangled Banner” as the apotheosis of that anthem (“The life of a song”, Life & Arts, November 2).
But he gets the details about the Mexico City Olympics slightly wrong. Tommie Smith — surely the most elegant sprinter ever to grace the track — and John Carlos raised their gloved fists in a Black power salute, to the accompaniment of the US national anthem after the 200 metres (Smith taking gold in a new world record), not the 400 metres.
Smith, who had also broken the world 400 metre record the previous year, would undoubtedly have been part of the US 4x400m relay team but, along with Carlos, was suspended by the US management and sent home before that event took place.
Charles Mercey
Tellisford, Somerset, UK
A TINY island in Europe has revealed plans for a new airfield in a bid to encourage more long-term holidaymakers.
Gozo, part of the Maltese archipelago, is often visited as a day trip for people staying in Malta.
However, the Maltese government wants these day-trippers – who visit by ferry – to stay overnight.
Government officials hope to encourage more tourists to Gozo by opening a new rural airfield on the island.
Daily flights will operate between Malta and Gozo, with an aim to entice overnight holidaymakers onto the island.
Plans for the expanded airfield in Gozo were approved by the Planning Authority’s Board in October.
The airfield is located on the outskirts of Xewkija, a village on the island, and is currently only used for emergency purposes.
While the space currently includes a disused heliport, the plans will see the runway extended so small fixed wing aircraft and helicopters can land on the airfield.
When the airfield opens in 2026, it is thought that there will be 15 flights per day, including scheduled and chartered flights.
Island officials hope the expansion of the airfield, and the direct flights between Malta and Gozo will attract more tourists to the tiny European island.
Ronald Sultana, director of tourism and economic development at Malta’s ministry for Gozo and planning, said: “We are not against day tripping, but we want to translate a ratio of that day tripping into longer stays.
“It will become more sustainable and we will be avoiding mass tourism.”
The new airfield will also serve as a base for activities like skydiving.
According to a local newspaper, the entire airfield project is expected to cost €2.5million (£2million).
Upgrades to the heliport are set to cost €1.6million (£1.3million) with a further €861,000 (£716,000) being spent on three nine-seater aircraft.
Ticket could cost between £20 and £30 when they launch, according to local media.
Infrastructure on the island is also set to be upgraded as part of the plans.
A new sports centre and a range of boutique hotels are also slated to open on Gozo.
Sultana added: “These are some of the different projects we’re trying to implement in order to turn Gozo into a destination that one can enjoy on a longer stay.”
It’s not the only new airport opening on a popular holiday island.
The Caribbean island of Barbuda has revealed plans for a £10.8million airport.
Greenland has revealed plans for three new airports, and Crete is opening its new Kastelli International Airport by 2026.
TRAVEL writer James Draven visited Gozo last year, he’s what he thought about the Maltese island.
More laid-back and rural than its sister island, locals say that Gozo is what Malta was like 50 years ago.
The ferry ride is quick and cheap, so you’d be daft not to take a day trip to see the golden sands of Ramla Bay, ancient salt pans on the shoreline, the Bronze Age hilltop citadel or Ggantija Temples, man-made structures that predate the pyramids of Egypt.
Meanwhile, these are six secret holiday spots in Europe.
And this French holiday spot has been described as “unfairly overlooked”.
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US prosecutors on Friday accused Iran’s government of hiring a man to set in motion plots to assassinate perceived enemies of the regime, including president-elect Donald Trump.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in September directed Farhad Shakeri, one of its assets, to surveil Trump and come up with a plan to kill him, according to an unsealed criminal complaint on Friday. He said he was told at a meeting in early October to put forward an assassination plan within seven days — if not, the attempt would have to wait until after the election, which they presumed he would lose.
Shakeri, who is Iranian, told the FBI in an interview he did not intend to do so, according to court filings.
Shakeri, who remains at large and is believed to be in Iran, was charged with murder-for-hire alongside two alleged co-conspirators — both from New York — in relation to a scheme targeting another US citizen of Iranian origin who is opposed to the Islamic republic. Shakeri’s two co-defendants made an initial court appearance in Manhattan on Thursday and have been detained pending trial.
“There are few actors in the world that pose as grave a threat to the national security of the United States as does Iran,” said US attorney-general Merrick Garland.
US officials earlier this year received information about an Iranian threat to Trump, prompting the Secret Service to increase security around him.
The 2024 presidential campaign, which culminated in Trump’s election victory on Tuesday, has been marred with threats and incidents of violence, as well as efforts by foreign governments, including Iran and Russia, to interfere with the vote.
Trump faced two unsuccessful attempts on his life during the campaign, and bomb threats appearing to come from Russian email domains briefly disrupted voting at some precincts in crucial swing states.
FBI director Christopher Wray said: “The charges announced today expose Iran’s continued brazen attempts to target US citizens, including president-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders and dissidents who criticise the regime in Tehran.”
Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Iran’s mission to the UN declined to comment.
When asked to focus on assassinating Trump, Shakeri told an IRGC official it would cost a “huge” amount of money, to which the officer replied: “we have already spent a lot of money . . . [s]o the money’s not an issue”, according to the complaint.
EAGLE-EYED shoppers have spotted a deal in Tesco that is too good to resist.
If you’re a fizzy drink fanatic you could be in for a Christmas treat as the popular retailer has slashed the price of a fan favourite.
You can pick up 15 Diet Cokes for £7.90 at Tesco but if you have a Tesco Clubcard you can grab two packs for £9.
This tots up to an impressive 30p per can.
One shopper snapped the deal and popped it on Facebook and users have been quick to tag their friends and family.
On the Tesco website users rushed to the comment section to gush about the pricing.
One wrote: “Excellent value and price for this product.”
Another added: “Great size of pack, and these are great for a slightly healthier alternative to a sweet treat.”
A third user joked: “I have Diet Coke running through my veins.”
The 330ml cans of Diet Coke are low calorie and no sugar, making it a healthier alternative to regular Coke.
Each can contains 1 calorie compared to a can of Coca-Cola Classic which contains 139 calories.
If you’re not a huge fan you can always swap out Coke for Pepsi, but watch out – the offer ends soon.
The deal is only valid until November 19 so make sure to stack up while you can.
Tesco is offering all sorts of Clubcard bargains this Christmas with some choccy treats on offer.
You can snap up a 550g of Cadbury Heroes Tub for £4.50 with a Clubcard, which is 25 per cent of the usual price.
For the perfect stocking filler if you fancy splashing out on posh chocolate you can also pick up some Green & Black’s Organic Tasting Collection Chocolate Gift.
This is down to £9 using a Clubcard from £13 and is 395g of chocolatey goodness.
If you’re keen to use your Clubcard but you think you may have lost your points, there is a way to get them back.
Some people lose or forget to use their Tesco vouchers, but there’s a way to claw back the last couple of years of unused vouchers.
Here is exactly how to find out if you have any unused vouchers that you can claim.
The first step is to log into your Tesco Clubcard account on Tesco.com or through the Clubcard app.
You’ll need your name, email address and Clubcard number to hand.
Once you have logged in, navigate to “My Clubcard Account” and then click on “Vouchers” to see a full list of any vouchers you still have to spend.
Now you’ve spotted them you can use them at the still by scanning your phone, or you can add them to your based at online check-out.
TESCO’S Clubcard scheme allows shoppers to earn points as they shop.
These points can then be turned into vouchers for money off food at the supermarket, or discounts at other places like restaurants and days out.
Each time you spend £1 in-store and online, you get one point when you scan your Clubcard.
Drivers using the loyalty card get one point for every two litres spent on fuel.
One point equals 1p, so 150 points gets you a £1.50 money-off voucher, for example.
You can double their worth when you swap them for discounts with “reward partners”.
For example, £12 worth of vouchers can be swapped for a £24 three-month subscription to Disney+.
Or you can swap 50p worth of points for £1 to spend at Hungry Horse pubs.
Where you can spend them changes regularly, and you can check on the Tesco website what’s available now.
Tesco shoppers can also get Clubcard prices when they have the loyalty card.
The discounted items change regularly and without a Clubcard you’ll pay a higher price.
These Clubcard prices are usually labelled on shelves, along with the non-member price.
But it’s worth noting that just because it’s discounted doesn’t necessarily make it the cheapest around, and you should compare prices to find the best deal.
You can sign up to get a Tesco Clubcard in store or online via the Tesco website.
It was with dismay and disbelief that I read Miles Johnson’s review of a book by Gareth Gore on Opus Dei (“Cult of personality”, Life & Arts, FT Weekend, October 19).
Dismay because of the obvious ignorance and simmering hatred in the book under discussion, and disbelief that a quality newspaper like the FT should recommend it as one of its “best books of the week” when it seems really little more than a concoction of old, long discarded black legends, and new fake news about the Catholic Prelature of Opus Dei.
It appears readers are seriously expected to believe that Opus Dei is up to nothing less than conquering the world, by secretly gaining control of just about everything, from Spanish banks to the US Supreme Court.
In reality, the Catholic Prelature of Opus Dei is representing nothing other than traditional, mainstream Catholicism.
This in itself may be reason for some people to hate it. But the faithful of the Prelature are doing much good to many people around the world, through preaching the Gospel, and engaging in countless charitable projects.
The FT should not be recommending this kind of dangerously aggressive pulp fiction to its readers.
Martin Eberts
German Consul General (retd)
Potsdam, Germany
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