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UK growth ‘set to accelerate’ to 1.5% next year, says IMF

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UK growth 'set to accelerate' to 1.5% next year, says IMF

The UK economy is set to “accelerate”, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said as it raised its growth forecast for this year.

The influential global organisation now expects the UK to grow by 1.1% this year, up from the 0.7% it forecast three months ago.

While slow compared to previous periods, this would put the UK in the middle of the pack of global nations.

The IMF’s outlook contrasts with Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s assessment of the UK economy after she claimed Labour had inherited the “worst set of circumstances since the Second World War” following 14 years of Conservative rule.

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The chancellor is expected to outline tax rises and spending cuts aimed at raising £40bn at next week’s Budget.

Reeves welcomed the IMF’s more upbeat forecast, but said: “I know there is more work to do.”

The IMF and UK government have disagreed over previous predictions and economic forecasts are not always accurate.

The IMF has previously stated its forecasts for most advanced economies, such as the UK’s, have more often than not been within about 1.5 percentage points of what actually happens.

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The IMF’s global forecast shows the world economy has proven resilient, with richer countries having made up for lost pandemic growth.

The US continues to outperform all its peers in the G7 group of advanced economies as the presidential election looms. Its economy is forecast to grow 2.8% this year and 2.2% next year.

The US has seen productivity gains outstripping wage growth, and has, according to the IMF, been “bolstered by substantial immigration flows that helped cool labour markets”.

Europe’s major economies, remain sluggish, especially Germany, but Spain is growing rapidly, by 2.9% this year and 2.1% next year.

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Ahead of what is expected to be a tough Budget, the IMF backed maintaining and increasing public investment as being “positive” for growth, especially in areas that boost productivity and competitiveness, for example digital and public infrastructure.

The IMF pointed to internal research showing countries that spend a high proportion of their budgets on investment have significantly faster growing economies.

Reeves has inherited Conservative plans for a notable cut to public investment, measured as a share of the national economy.

The Treasury has clearly signalled in recent days that it could reverse that policy, instead maintaining or increasing investment.

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Reeves is also expected to confirm in the Budget that the way in which the government defines its self-imposed rules on reducing the national debt will change to accommodate more investment in infrastructure projects.

Elsewhere in the world, the sanctions-hit Russian economy has had its forecast upgraded yet again, as its move to a war economy supports growth. This year it is expected to expand by 3.6%.

However, next year growth is expected to fall dramatically to 1.3% as private consumption and investment slow.

The IMF pointed to concerns that emerging economies had been left with more “permanent scars” and more persistent inflation from recent global crises.

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Money

That Christmas’ Review: Netflix’s New Holiday Classic

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By Louise Rochford: October 20, 2024

‘That Christmas’ Review: A Potential Holiday Classic from Netflix

In the spirit of the season, Netflix’s That Christmas emerges as a delightful animated feature poised to carve its niche among holiday classics. This charming film, penned by the beloved Richard Curtis and directed by Simon Otto in his feature debut, takes audiences on a whimsical journey through the quaint seaside town of Wellington-on-Sea. Voiced by the illustrious Brian Cox, Santa finds himself battling treacherous winter weather on Christmas Eve, navigating the stormy skies while racing against the clock to deliver gifts to eager children.

A Familiar Dilemma

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The film opens with Santa facing a familiar yet daunting dilemma: a fierce winter storm threatens to derail his plans. With only one reindeer, voiced by Guz Khan, to pull the sleigh, tensions rise between them—so much so that Santa jokingly considers trading in his sleigh for a self-driving vehicle next year. The stakes are high, and as Santa pushes through snow and strong winds, he must rely on his determination and the spirit of the season to fulfill his mission. Despite these comedic setbacks, Santa’s ultimate goal remains clear: to bring joy to children around the world, especially those in his fictional English coastal town.

A Joyous Celebration of Community

That Christmas premiered at the BFI London Film Festival, and it’s clear that this animation from Locksmith Animation (known for Ron’s Gone Wrong) is destined to become a holiday favorite. Unlike many holiday films that can veer into overly saccharine territory, this story gracefully sidesteps cliché by grounding its whimsical narrative in authentic and relatable emotions.

Otto, renowned for his work on How to Train Your Dragon, adeptly balances playful self-awareness with the required suspension of disbelief inherent in holiday tales. The film manages to evoke the heartwarming charm that Curtis is known for while introducing a fresh animated style. The narrative is rooted in the interconnected lives of its characters, with Santa guiding us through Wellington-on-Sea, a close-knit community where the magic of Christmas unfolds.

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The film introduces a diverse array of characters, each adding their own flavor to the holiday spirit. A group of local children, led by the bold 15-year-old Bernadette (India Brown), embarks on a progressive rendition of the traditional Three Kings play, dubbed Three Wise Women. Their imaginative production swaps traditional shepherds for organic vegetable farmers, creating a vibrant tapestry of creativity and joy. The performance becomes a metaphor for the changing times, emphasizing sustainability and community involvement.

At the heart of the story is Danny (Jack Wisniewski), the new kid in town, who finds himself navigating the complexities of childhood friendships and the emotional turmoil of his parents’ divorce. His growing bond with the grumpy yet endearing teacher Ms. Trapper (Fiona Shaw) adds depth to the narrative, showcasing the importance of connection during the holiday season. As Danny struggles with feelings of loneliness and the hope of rekindling a relationship with his estranged father, viewers are invited to reflect on their own familial connections and the importance of community.

Meanwhile, Danny’s crush on the anxious Sam (Zazie Hayhurst) brings a lighthearted, relatable layer to the film, highlighting the ups and downs of young love. Their tentative relationship mirrors the awkwardness of adolescence, with all its hopes and fears, as they navigate school life together.

Comedic Chaos and Emotional Depth

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The McNutt family, portrayed by Lolly Adefope and Rhys Darby, injects a sense of comedic chaos as they prepare for the holiday alongside their amusing friends. The plot thickens when Bernadette’s parents leave town for a wedding, leaving their children to fend for themselves amid a snowstorm. This decision spirals into a series of comedic mishaps, culminating in a desperate struggle to return home before Christmas day.

As the parents scramble to find a way back to their families, the film explores themes of sacrifice and the lengths to which people will go for their loved ones. The children, meanwhile, must navigate their own challenges, leading to moments of unexpected bravery and friendship. The McNutts’ quirky antics add a layer of humor, keeping the tone light while still addressing deeper emotional currents.

Throughout its 91-minute runtime, That Christmas skillfully weaves together multiple storylines, ensuring each character receives the attention they deserve. The attention to detail—from the lighthouse keeper’s daily town bulletin updates to the friendly rivalries among residents—creates an immersive experience that breathes life into this fictional village.

A Heartwarming Adventure

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What sets That Christmas apart from typical holiday fare is its dedication to portraying the complexities of community life. The film doesn’t shy away from the challenges faced by its characters; rather, it embraces them, presenting a narrative that feels genuine and relatable. The characters’ struggles with love, family, and personal growth resonate with viewers of all ages, offering lessons about resilience and the true meaning of Christmas.

With its rich storytelling, charming animation, and a talented voice cast, the film is set to become a holiday staple for families and fans of all ages. Brian Cox’s Santa, alongside a colorful ensemble, delivers a heartfelt narrative that resonates with the warmth and spirit of Christmas. It reminds us that the holidays are not just about presents but about the connections we make and the love we share with one another.

Full Credits

Venue: BFI London Film Festival (Gala)
Distributor: Netflix
Production Companies: Double Negative, Locksmith Animation
Cast: Brian Cox, Fiona Shaw, Jodie Whittaker, Bill Nighy, Rhys Darby
Director: Simon Otto
Screenwriters: Richard Curtis, Peter Souter
Producers: Nicole P. Hearon, p.g.a, Adam Tandy, p.g.a
Executive Producers: Mary Coleman, Natalie Fischer, Julie Lockhart, Elisabeth Murdoch, Bonnie Arnold, Lara Breay, Sarah Smith, Rebecca Cobb, Richard Curtis, Colin Hopkins
Production Designer: Justin Hutchinson-Chatburn
Editor: Sim Evan-Jones, ACE
Music: John Powell
Rated: PG
Runtime: 1 hour 31 minutes.

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With its rich tapestry of characters and heartfelt storytelling, That Christmas is bound to become a cherished addition to holiday movie nights, reminding audiences of the joy, laughter, and love that define the season.

Finance Monthly Star Rating: 8/10

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There are only two asset classes: ownership and debt

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There are only two asset classes: ownership and debt

Non-investment grade public and private debt now offer prospective returns that are competitive with equities

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Money

Government urged to ‘keep up the momentum’ after pensions dashboard update

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Industry experts have urged the government to “keep up the momentum” after it gave an update on the Pensions Dashboard Programme today (22 October).

Pensions minister Emma Reynolds announced that the MoneyHelper Pension Dashboard service will be made available before commercial dashboards.

Reynolds added that it is too early to confirm a launch date to the public.

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) previously said the launch date will only be announced once it is assured most pension schemes have connected and the dashboards are working well.

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The Pension Dashboards Programme (PDP) has been given the task of developing the Pension Dashboards ecosystem and organising for most schemes to connect to it.

Pension schemes must connect to the dashboard ecosystem by October 2026 at the latest, but have been urged to connect earlier, starting from April 2025.

The Financial Conduct Authority is expected to publish the final rules of the governance framework for commercial dashboards before the end of the year.

Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, said: “Pension Dashboards will have the power to dramatically improve pension engagement. They will give people an overall picture of their pension savings, letting them know how much they have saved so far, where it is and, importantly, how to add to it and how to get hold of it.

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“It’s therefore reassuring the government is maintaining its commitment to such an important project, especially when the public finance purse strings are so constrained.

“We need to keep up the momentum to develop dashboards and drive this initiative to delivery.”

Vahey said that Pension Dashboards “need to cover most pension schemes, work efficiently and be easy to use”.

“Obviously, the Pension Dashboards Programme (PDP) should concentrate on getting all these elements right. But there is simply no point building dashboards if no-one is going to use them,” she added.

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“Restricting the dashboards to a single one – the government’s own version – means not as many people will be aware of the dashboard or use it, potentially missing out on the opportunity to trace lost pension schemes, but also to put their pension savings back on track.

“A ‘soft’ launch could make sense, while dashboards are tested to ensure they are working as expected.

“But for dashboards to be a success it’s essential that commercial dashboards are launched as soon as possible, allowing them to play their role in making sure pension savers are aware of them and use them.”

Scottish Widows head of policy, Pete Glancy, said: “We welcome the government’s commitment to multiple qualifying dashboards, which will support innovation in best meeting these needs of pension savers.

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“The public will benefit from being able to see all of their combined pension income, which they are on track to have in retirement, in one place.

“We know that they are much more likely to engage with their pension pots if they can access that information through channels they already visit often.

“We are excited about the difference that dashboards could make but recognise its important to get something as important as this right.

“Let’s maintain the momentum.”

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Yvonne Braun, director of policy, long term savings, health and protection at the Association of British Insurers, said: “Pensions Dashboards will be a huge catalyst for positive change in how people engage with their pensions, including helping them find lost pension money.

“We are reassured to see the government’s continued commitment to the programme, and to launching both a state-owned MoneyHelper Dashboard and enabling commercial dashboards.

“Commercial dashboards are vital because they will allow the maximum number of people to find their pension information in the on-line services they use day to day.

“It is therefore crucial both the MoneyHelper dashboard and commercial dashboards are launched as soon as possible, and very closely together, so that this pioneering project can deliver on its enormous potential.”

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Water regulator signals further increase to bills in England

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Regulator Ofwat has signalled that it will allow water companies to lift bills further than initially proposed after the industry argued that it needed more money to invest in Britain’s ailing infrastructure.

Ofwat said on Tuesday the industry had made a fresh push to increase prices beyond the regulator’s draft decision in July to fund an additional £7bn of investment, which would take the total to £108bn.

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“This increased expenditure request will, if approved, increase customer bills compared to our draft determinations,” it said.

Water companies are currently negotiating with Ofwat the extent to which they can raise real terms bills over the five years until 2030, with a final decision expected in December or January.

In July the water regulator for England and Wales angered the sector by rejecting its demand for an average 29 per cent increase in bills in favour of a 19 per cent rise. 

Now companies have come back with a request to raise them by 40 per cent, which would take the average household bill to at least £615 a year in five years’ time compared with £439 now — even without inflation. 

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Water companies argue that the need for bill increases reflects a rise in the scope of their proposed investment schemes, and increased regulatory costs. They are also facing higher labour, chemical, energy and financing charges.

“Ofwat usually improves its offer between the draft and its final decision and in this case its initial proposals would not have been high enough to finance the need for investment,” said Dominic Nash, analyst at Barclays.

Southern Water has proposed the largest 84 per cent increase in bills after initially proposing a 73 per cent rise. Ofwat had proposed a 44 per cent increase for Southern during its draft determination in July.

Southern said: “We are taking this approach in response to what our communities have told us they want us to deliver.”

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However, there is a wide range of requests from companies with Northumbrian Water seeking the lowest rise at just 21 per cent.

Thames Water has gone back to Ofwat to ask for a 53 per cent rise in real terms after the water regulator rejected its proposal for a more modest 44 per cent jump earlier this year.

The troubled water giant, which is teetering on the brink of collapse, had been told in July by the regulator that it would be limited to a 23 per cent increase in household bills.

The company provides water and sewerage services to about 16mn households in London.

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Thames Water needs the bill increases to raise new equity after existing investors declared that the business was “uninvestable” under Ofwat’s current regime.

The company is scrambling to find new equity and risks running out of cash by Christmas. It has already warned that its ageing infrastructure is a risk to public safety.

Thames Water and Northumbrian declined to comment.

Water UK, which represents the industry, said: “Since first submitting their investment plans over a year ago to Ofwat, water companies have new legal additional requirements to fulfil, along with inflation costs to bear.”

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How to check if you’re eligible for DWP winter cash including cold weather payments and warm home discount

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How to check if you’re eligible for DWP winter cash including cold weather payments and warm home discount

MILLIONS are eligible for free cash from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) this winter.

Hard-up households are in line for help through a number of Government schemes and funds.

Households can get support from the DWP this winter

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Households can get support from the DWP this winterCredit: PA

In some cases you have to apply while in others those who qualify receive payments automatically.

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Whether you are eligible for all of them depends on your exact circumstances too.

From the cold weather payment, to Household Support Fund and Warm Home Discount scheme, here’s all the help on offer.

Cold weather payment

Cold weather payments are made to households in areas that experience continual cold temperatures over the winter months.

The payments are usually made between November 1 and March 31 to those on certain benefits.

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You get £25 for each seven day period where the temperature is zero degrees celsius or below in your area, with payments usually processed in 14 working days.

That means if you live somewhere where temperatures were sub-zero for two weeks, you would get £50.

You usually qualify for a cold weather payment if you are on one of the following benefits:

Most eligible people don’t need to apply to get cold weather payments.

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Three key benefits that YOU could be missing out on, and one even gives you a free TV Licence

However, if you are on Income Support, income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) or income-related Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) and have had a baby or have a child under five living with you, you need to tell your local Jobcentre Plus centre.

If you don’t, you won’t receive any of the payments despite being eligible.

You can check if you’re eligible for a cold weather payment via gov.uk.

Warm Home Discount Scheme

The Warm Home Discount Scheme sees households on certain benefits receive a one-off discount on their energy bills worth £150.

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The discount is automatic for the vast majority of qualifying households and is applied between October and the following March.

You are automatically eligible if you receive the Guarantee Credit part of Pension Credit.

You also qualify if you are on a number of other benefits and live in a home with a high energy cost score.

This is calculated by the Government based on the type, age and size of your property.

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You may not qualify for the Warm Home Discount if you live in a more energy-efficient home for example.

The £150 discount is applied to your bill by your energy supplier.

The full list of suppliers who are part of the scheme can be found via https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme/energy-suppliers.

Households in Scotland don’t need to apply for the Warm Home Discount if they get the Guarantee Credit element of Pension Credit.

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However, you do need to apply via your energy firm if you receive any of the other qualifying benefits.

Household Support Fund

The Household Support Fund has been extended multiple times, first launching in October 2021.

The latest round is worth £421million and has been shared by the DWP between councils in England.

These councils then have to decide who to give money to, and how to distribute it.

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That means what you are entitled to depends on where you live and it can be a bit of a postcode lottery.

However, you might be eligible for direct bank transfers, supermarket or energy vouchers.

You may even qualify for discounted white goods.

Households in Birmingham can get £200 cash grants paid into their bank accounts by the city council.

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Meanwhile, Nottinghamshire Council is paying tens of thousands of households £200 one-off payments.

You can check if you’re eligible for help by contacting your local council which you can find via www.gov.uk/find-local-council.

Are you missing out on benefits?

YOU can use a benefits calculator to help check that you are not missing out on money you are entitled to

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Charity Turn2Us’ benefits calculator works out what you could get.

Entitledto’s free calculator determines whether you qualify for various benefits, tax credit and Universal Credit.

MoneySavingExpert.com and charity StepChange both have benefits tools powered by Entitledto’s data.

You can use Policy in Practice’s calculator to determine which benefits you could receive and how much cash you’ll have left over each month after paying for housing costs.

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Your exact entitlement will only be clear when you make a claim, but calculators can indicate what you might be eligible for.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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Travel

Airline launches two new flights from UK to holiday hotspot with £2 Michelin meals

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Gulf Air will operate two new routes from the UK to Singapore

GULF Air is launching flights from two airports in the UK to Singapore, aiming to offer passengers competitive prices.

The Bahrain flag carrier will operate two new routes from London Heathrow and Manchester Airport to Singapore, with services stopping in Bahrain en route.

Gulf Air will operate two new routes from the UK to Singapore

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Gulf Air will operate two new routes from the UK to SingaporeCredit: Alamy

Flights from London Heathrow will start operating next week on October 27, 2024.

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The services will depart from the London airport at 9.30am, arriving in Singapore at 12.30pm the following day.

Flights will stopover in Bahrain, with stops lasting just under five hours according to the airline’s website.

Return services will then leave Singapore at 8.25pm before touching back down in the UK at 6.35am the following morning, with flights again stopping in Bahrain for several hours.

Economy class tickets start from £541 per person, with prices jumping up to £2,028 for seats in the Falcon Gold Class cabin.

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Meanwhile, flights from Manchester Airport will depart at 10.25am, arriving in Singapore at 12.30pm the following day.

Stopovers in Bahrain will take just under four hours.

Return flights will then leave Singapore at 8.25pm, arriving back in the UK at 6.35am the next day, including a two-hour stopover.

Economy class tickets start from £556, with prices jumping up to £2,033 in the Falcon Gold Class Cabin.

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The route will be operated by a Gulf Air Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner.

World’s best airport is now in Europe – with cheap flights, record-breaking museums and 317 destinations

Joanna Patterson, Director of Sales for Gulf Air, said, “UK travellers now have a great-value, easy option for accessing Singapore, via our Bahrain hub.

“This new daily route expands our commitment to the Southeast Asian market and is a key step in our global network expansion strategy.

“Singapore is a vibrant hub for business and tourism, and we’re thrilled to offer UK travellers greater access to this renowned destination.”

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Singapore is a bucket list destination in its own right thanks to its £2 Michelin meals and famous Formula One circuit.

While the next Formula One race won’t be taking place until next year, there are still plenty of reasons to visit the country, including the Gardens by the Bay, which is famed for its display of flora and fauna.

It is home to ever-changing displays at the Flower Dome — a towering indoor waterfall at The Cloud Forest — as well as the 160ft vertical gardens at Supertree Grove.

Other attractions include taking a tour of famous graffiti artworks by Singapore’s answer to Banksy, Yip Yew Chong, who creates enormous, hand-painted murals inspired by the daily lives of Singaporeans.

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The good news is, the city centre has some of the cheapest Michelin-starred meals on the planet.

At the Chinatown Complex Market is Liao Fan Hawker Chan, the world’s first Hawker stall to win the coveted star, serves Michelin Star dishes for £2.

Other new airline routes

HERE are some of the new airline routes launching across the UK.

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  • The no-frills airline has added a new winter service from Belfast International Airport to Kaunas, Lithuania.
  • Ryanair has launched four other new routes from London Stansted to Dubrovnik, Linz, Reggio and Sarajevo.
  • Back in April, Ryanair launched its first flights from Cardiff, flying to both Tenerife and Alicante in Spain.
  • Also in April, Ryanair’s first routes from Norwich Airport launched to Alicante, Faro and Malta.
  • Other new Ryanair routes include Newcastle to Marrakech in October, in time for the winter season.
  • Another new Morocco route from the budget airline is from Manchester to Tangier, which was named the best value flight destination.

Ryanair recently launched a route from Newcastle to Marrakech.  

Earlier this year, Jet2 confirmed that a new route will operate between Manchester Airport and Porto.

The new routes will land in Singapore

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The new routes will land in SingaporeCredit: Getty

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