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UK household disposable income falls below pre-pandemic levels

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UK household disposable income has dropped below pre-pandemic levels even as state support helped reduce inequality, underlining the impact of rising prices and higher interest rates on personal finances.

Median household disposable income was £34,500 in the fiscal year ending March 2023, down 2.5 per cent on the previous year and down from £34,700 in the year to March 2020, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.

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Disposable income — defined as the amount of money households have available for spending and saving after taxes — fell by an annual average of 0.3 per cent between 2020 and 2023, the ONS said, although it rose by 0.8 per cent a year between 2013 and 2023.

Disposable income inequality declined to 33.1 per cent in the year to March 2023 from 35.5 per cent the previous year on the back of government measures to ease the cost of living crisis.

The figures highlight the impact of the recent surge in inflation and reflect the rise in mortgage rates as the Bank of England increased borrowing costs.

After consumer confidence fell sharply in September, they also underline the challenge facing Sir Keir Starmer’s government to deliver its promise of higher living standards across the country.

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Inflation stood at 2.2 per cent in August, well below the 42-year high of 11.1 per cent in October 2022 but above the BoE’s 2 per cent target.

Line chart of £ ‘000 showing UK median household disposable income fell in the fiscal year ending March 2023

Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at investment company T Rowe Price, said the jump in energy costs after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 had led other essential goods and services to rise in price at a time when households were facing higher mortgage costs and consumer debt.

But he added that “the effects would have been much larger” had successive governments not subsidised household energy bills or raised the minimum wage by almost 10 per cent.

Britain’s poorest households benefited from a 2.3 per cent increase in disposable income to £16,400 in the past year, helped by government support measures, the ONS said.

By contrast, disposable income among the richest households fell 4.9 per cent to £68,400, while there was a 2.5 per cent fall to £34,500 across the entire population.

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Despite lower income inequality, the richest and poorest one-fifth of households were worse off than before the pandemic, with their disposable income down 4.3 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively.

In a letter this month, 17 groups including the Salvation Army warned ministers that many Britons were “resorting to desperate measures” to cope with living costs and higher energy bills this winter.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves on Monday reiterated the government’s commitment to boosting economic growth, striking a more upbeat tone than in previous months and paving the way for more public investment.

She also set out an accelerated timeline on a pledge to roll out free breakfast clubs to every primary school in the UK.

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Household disposable income has grown much more slowly since the 2008-09 financial crisis than in past decades, ONS data shows, highlighting the impact of slower growth.

In the 15 years to 2023, median disposable income rose only 7 per cent, compared with a 41 per cent increase in the previous 15 years.

Economists forecast that household income will rise again in 2024 as real wages are now rising and mortgage costs falling.

In August, the BoE cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years, leaving them at 5 per cent. Another reduction is expected in November.

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Paul Dales, economist at research company Capital Economics, said there would “be an extra drag on real household disposable income” if Reeves raised taxes in the October Budget. But he added that it was likely “to grow faster [in the year to March 2024] mainly due to inflation having fallen faster than wage growth”.

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Minister sets out plan to reduce female prisoners in England and Wales

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A new “women’s justice board” will be set up to cut the female prison population in England and Wales as part of a longer-term push to reduce the number of women’s jails, the justice secretary has said.

In a speech to the Labour party conference in Liverpool on Tuesday, Shabana Mahmood rejected then Conservative home secretary Michael Howard’s 1993 declaration that “prison works”, saying that “for women prison isn’t working”.

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Labour has said it inherited a criminal justice system at “breaking point” when it won the general election in July, and in her first 10 weeks in office Mahmood has faced record jail overcrowding, which saw the prison estate come to within a few hundred places of capacity.

Almost 2,000 prisoners were released early this month, with several thousand more to be let out in October, under temporary emergency measures reducing the proportion of some custodial sentences from 50 per cent to 40 per cent.  

Mahmood in her speech accused “guilty men in the last government” of bringing the prison system “to the point of disaster”.

The new women’s justice board would be tasked with providing early interventions to divert women away from the criminal justice system, improving community support and looking at specific problems affecting young women in custody, she said.

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The self-harm rate among female inmates is eight times higher than among men, and women between the ages of 18 and 24 account for more than one-third of incidents despite constituting less than 10 per cent of the female prison population.

Some 3,453 women were in prison in England and Wales as of last Friday, according to Ministry of Justice figures, compared with 82,953 male inmates.

There are 123 jails in England and Wales, according to HM Prison Service, of which 12 in England are for women. Mahmood described them as “desperate places” that led female offenders into a life of crime rather than helping them rehabilitate.

About two-thirds of female offenders sentenced to prison did not commit a violent crime, and more than half of female offenders were the victims of domestic abuse, the department said in a release announcing Mahmood’s planned reforms.

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The MoJ said women serving short custodial sentences were “significantly more likely to reoffend” than those serving non-custodial sentences.

The new body would be led by a minister and set up in the MoJ, the department added.

Pia Sinha, chief executive of the Prison Reform Trust charity, welcomed the creation of a separate oversight board for female offenders as a “historic moment for women’s justice”.

“Many women are primary carers for children, which means prison can have a devastating impact on those left behind on the outside as well as on the women themselves,” she said.

Sinha added that for the women’s justice board to be effective it “must provide a framework for better use of liaison and diversion services and community alternatives for women”.

Mahmood also pledged to make progress on Labour’s manifesto pledge to give all rape victims access to an independent legal advocate representing them “rather than a defendant or prosecutor”.

The change is aimed at cutting the number of victims who drop out of rape cases — 60 per cent at present — before they go to trial.   

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Taste the Innovation: Nksha’s new menu

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Taste the Innovation: Nksha’s new menu

Nksha, South Mumbai’s esteemed culinary destination, has unveiled its innovative new menu, blending timeless North Indian cuisine with modern twists to evoke the vibrant spirit of retro Bombay.

Continue reading Taste the Innovation: Nksha’s new menu at Business Traveller.

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What does it mean for Scotland and Aberdeen?

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What does it mean for Scotland and Aberdeen?
Getty Images A row of large ships harboured in AberdeenGetty Images

Aberdeen has been the home of the UK’s oil and gas industry for decades

The UK government has confirmed that Aberdeen is to be the home of the new state-owned energy company.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has told the Labour conference in Liverpool that Great British Energy will operate out of the city.

It will not supply power to homes, but will help fund new and existing clean technology, as well as small and medium-sized renewable energy projects.

The government had been criticised for delays in announcing the company would be headquartered in Aberdeen but Sir Keir said it would be led by the “talent and skills of the working people in the Granite City”.

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Great British Energy was one of Labour’s key election pledges and was always planned to be based in Scotland.

BBC Scotland news revealed earlier this month that the decision had been taken to base the company in the UK’s oil and gas capital.

The company chairman, Juergen Maier, has now confirmed it will also operate sites in Glasgow and Edinburgh.

But there has been some confusion over what exactly it was designed to do, which forced Labour to clarify its role during the election campaign.

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Tuesday’s announcement means industry and consumers are a step closer to knowing what its creation will mean for the UK’s energy future.

What is Great British Energy?

Ed Miliband, the UK’s energy security and net zero secretary, has said the company will help “to make Britain a clean-energy superpower, with a fully decarbonised power system by 2030.”

He describes GB Energy as “a new national champion allowing us to reap the benefits of Britain’s abundant natural resources, with clean power projects in communities across our country, to create the next generation of good jobs, reindustrialising Britain.”

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The government has published five key functions for the company:

  • Project development – leading projects through development stages to speed up their delivery, whilst capturing more value for the British public
  • Project investment – investing in energy projects alongside the private sector, helping get them off the ground
  • Local Power Plan – supporting local energy generation projects through working with local authorities, combined authorities and communities
  • Supply chains – building supply chains across the UK, boosting energy independence and creating jobs
  • Great British Nuclear – exploring how Great British Energy and Great British Nuclear will work together, including considering how Great British Nuclear functions will fit with Great British Energy.

Its founding statement says: “Great British Energy will own, manage and operate clean power projects. It will be a company that will generate energy in its own right, working in partnership with the private sector for the good of the country.”

PA Media Sir Keir Starmer at sea with wind turbines behind himPA Media

Sir Keir Starmer has spoken of the need to modernise the energy industry

GB Energy has launched a partnership with The Crown Estate, the statutory corporation which runs the £16bn portfolio of land and seabed belonging to the monarch.

The government believes this will cut through the long time-scales currently experienced when trying to get large infrastructure projects such as wind farms and transmission lines built.

The Crown Estate estimates this partnership will lead to up to 20-30GW of new offshore wind developments reaching seabed lease stage by 2030, which it says is enough to power the equivalent of almost 20 million homes.

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Ministers also claim the deal “has the potential to leverage up to £60bn of private investment into the UK’s drive for energy independence.”

How will Great British Energy be funded?

The government has pledged to invest £8.3bn of new money into the company over the course of this parliament.

That is expected to be raised through a windfall tax on oil and gas firms.

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The party had said previously it would not issue new oil and gas licences but also said it would not overturn existing permits.

The company will be independently operated and any profits will be reinvested, meaning it will be self-funding as soon as is possible.

What does Great British Energy mean for Aberdeen?

The confirmation that Aberdeen was to be the home of GB Energy came wrapped in praise from the prime minister at his speech in Liverpool.

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“We said, GB Energy, our publicly owned national champion, the vehicle that will drive forward our mission on clean energy, we said it belonged in Scotland, and it does,” he said.

“But the truth is, it could only really ever be based in one place in Scotland.

“So today, I can confirm that the future of British energy will be powered as it has been for decades, by the talent and skills of the working people in the Granite City with GB Energy based in Aberdeen.”

That brings to an end months of speculation though the debate will now turn to what that will actually mean for jobs and infrastructre in the city, which faces a tricky transition from oil and gas to renewable energy.

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The SNP and Conservatives have claimed that up to 100,000 jobs could be at threat from Labour policy on oil and gas licences.

However, the industry estimates the total Scottish jobs dependent on the sector is 60,000.

Tuesday’s announcement brought no further details on how many jobs would be created by GB Energy.

Getty Images Ships harboured in AberdeenGetty Images

Aberdeen is now waiting to hear what the news will mean for workers there

Responding to the news, Russell Borthwick, chief executive at Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce, said it would secure the north-east’s status as a “global energy capital” for many decades to come.

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“We are home to over a thousand energy supply chain companies and the lion’s share of energy workers who stand ready to deliver the UK’s transition to net zero,” he said.

“With the people, skills, strategic infrastructure and future pipeline of projects already in place, the north-east of Scotland is ready to lead the way.

“However, we do not need to kill off one industry to grow another – in fact, the opposite is true, as one cannot exist without the other.

“We therefore urge the UK government to use next month’s Budget to restore confidence in the North Sea to protect the jobs, supply chain and energy production we need to ensure a just transition,” he added.

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What will Great British Energy mean for my bills?

GB Energy will not immediately cut bills for consumers, as the global energy market continues to deal with the problems caused by the war in Ukraine.

The decision to restrict winter fuel allowance makes this a tricky area for Labour.

But ministers are keen to stress this is the first part of changing the way Britain sources, manages and modernises its energy sector.

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To work, GB Energy will have to transition the oil and gas sector to renewables, redesign how the grid operates, deliver green energy directly into homes and end the UK’s reliance on foreign energy.

Ed Miliband has said: “In an unstable world, the only way to guarantee our energy security and protect billpayers permanently is to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels and towards home‑grown clean energy.”

PA Media A Scottish cottage with turbines and the sea behindPA Media

GB Energy is meant to open up more renewable generation across Scotland

Gas and electricity prices will rise by 10% in England, Scotland and Wales from October.

Under the new energy price cap, the typical annual dual-fuel bill paid by direct debit will be £1,717 per year.

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At the same time, more then 10 million pensioners will no longer get winter fuel payments to help them with bills at the coldest time of year.

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Netanyahu’s ‘rope-a-dope’ war strategy with White House

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Within two weeks of Hamas’s October 7 attack, US President Joe Biden flew into Tel Aviv to show his support to Israel, telling the traumatised nation that America “will not let you ever be alone”.

But he also had words of caution, warning Israel not to be consumed by “rage” and repeat the US’s mistakes after the September 11, 2001 attacks. The inference, as Israel launched a thunderous offensive against Hamas in Gaza, was clear: do not get drawn into years-long wars as the US did in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Yet for almost a year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has persistently rebuffed the advice of his nation’s most important ally at a time of deepening regional crisis.

Israel is still fighting in Gaza, while dramatically ramping up its assault against Hizbollah, the Iranian-backed militant movement in Lebanon. On Monday, Israel’s largest air assault on Lebanon in decades killed more than 500 people, a dramatic escalation that edges the Middle East closer to the all-out, multi-front war the US has spent months trying to prevent.

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For many, it underlines how Biden, a self-avowed Zionist, is unwilling to use Washington’s leverage over Israel both because of his emotional attachment to Israel and domestic political calculations.

“If you look at what Netanyahu has done over the course of the last year, it’s [to] prioritise his own calculations about what was best for either him or the state of Israel . . . regardless of what the US suggested,” said Steven Cook at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Netanyahu is going to do what Netanyahu is going to do. He’s going to move the goalposts and rope-a-dope Biden.”

Benjamin Netanyahu visits Israeli soldiers in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip
Benjamin Netanyahu visits Israeli soldiers in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, in July © Avi Ohayon/GPO/Handout via REUTERS

The US initially convinced Netanyahu’s far-right government not to launch a pre-emptive offensive against Hizbollah shortly after it began firing rockets at Israel on October 8. But in the months since Israel and Hizbollah have exchanged intensifying fire as the US sought to broker a deal to end the hostilities.

That diplomatic push depends on the success of US-led efforts to secure a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza, as Hizbollah insists it will continue striking Israel as long as the war in the Palestinian strip continues.

Yet Netanyahu has shown little appetite for a ceasefire in Gaza, instead insisting on “total victory” against Hamas and now launching a “new phase” of the war against Hizbollah. “We are not waiting for the threat, we are pre-empting it — everywhere,” Netanyahu said on Monday.

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When he has come under pressure from the US and Israel’s other western allies, Netanyahu has sought to exploit it to his own political advantage, telling Israelis that he is defying global powers to pursue Israel’s war goals.

All the while, Biden has made it clear that he does not want to use his main points of leverage — withholding US military aid or assistance. The one time he did suspend an arms shipment, it was for a batch of 2,000lbs bombs in early May as Netanyahu insisted on launching an offensive on Rafah, the southern Gazan city where more than 1mn Palestinians had sought sanctuary.

The US, other western powers and UN agencies warned about the dire impact such a military operation would have on Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, but Israel went ahead and had seized control of Rafah by the end of the month.

Israeli soldiers drive past destroyed buildings in Rafah in the Gaza Strip
Israeli soldiers drive past destroyed buildings in Rafah in the Gaza Strip, in September © Sharon Aronowicz/AFP via Getty Images

There have been other moments when Biden has expressed his frustration with Netanyahu’s conduct of the war.

Six months before the Rafah offensive he warned that Israel’s “indiscriminate bombing” in Gaza risked leaving the country isolated and said Netanyahu “has to change”. The Biden administration has also for months pressed Israel, with limited success, to improve the delivery of aid to Gaza, amid warnings about the threat of famine and widespread disease in the besieged strip.

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This month, when Biden was asked if Netanyahu was doing enough to reach a ceasefire with Hamas he replied with a blunt “no”.

Yet he also repeatedly reiterates the US’s “ironclad” commitment to Israel’s defence. The US has provided Netanyahu’s government with more than $12.5bn in military assistance since October 7, and on Monday said it was deploying additional troops to the region to act as a deterrent and defend Israel.

Michael Wahid Hanna, US programme director at Crisis Group, said those running the administration’s policy have never been interested in “strong-arming” Israel into a ceasefire deal.

Biden could be using arms sales, the UN Security Council and diplomatic support for Israel to pressure Netanyahu, he said. But with US elections just over a month away, “it’s hard to imagine an American administration courting that level of diplomatic friction with Israel”.

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A pro-Palestinian demonstrator and a New York City police officer confront one another
A pro-Palestinian demonstrator and a New York City police officer confront one another © Corbis via Getty Images
Supporters of Israel shout at pro-Palestinian demonstrators in New York © Corbis via Getty Images

While Biden, and vice-president Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, risk losing support from Americans who oppose Israel’s military action, they also risk alienating pro-Israeli voters. Yet a spiralling conflict in the Middle East could also damage Harris’s election campaign, particularly if US troops are drawn into combat.

“There are huge potential downside risks to the Harris campaign from an all-out war,” Hanna said. “[Donald] Trump has talked a lot about the chaos that has happened under the administration . . . It will be a theme in the coming days that ‘this is a reflection of American weakness.’”

One former western intelligence official said the Israeli escalation gives Netanyahu an “opportunity to make life difficult for the Biden administration”, in the belief that a Trump victory would best serve Netanyahu’s interests.

“If he could be the source of the October surprise that gives Trump an opportunity to come back, then he’d be very happy to do that,” the official said.

Even some administration officials privately lament that there is little Washington can do to influence Israel’s behaviour so long as Biden refrains from using American leverage with military sales.

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But Biden, and many in his administration, consider defending Israel as fundamentally important to American security, and worry that withholding weapons or publicly criticising Israel would send the wrong signal to Iran and its proxies. They add that much of the world overstates how much sway Washington has over Israel.

Smoke billiows over southern Lebanon
Smoke billows over southern Lebanon after Israel attacks Hizbollah © Reuters

Privately they worry that Israel’s surge of attacks against Hizbollah could spiral out of control, even if Israel has indicated to them it doesn’t want a ground invasion. But some in the administration agree with Netanyahu’s ostensible logic of escalating to de-escalate, particularly when it involves Hizbollah and its patron Iran.

After Israel’s wave of strikes struck Lebanon on Monday, Biden said his “team had been in constant contact with their counterparts, and we’re working to de-escalate in a way that allows people [displaced Israelis] to return to their homes safely”.

Brett McGurk, Biden’s Middle East adviser, said last week that Washington had disagreements with the Israelis “on tactics” and “escalation risk” but added he was “confident that through diplomacy, through deterrence and other means, we’ll work our way out of it”.

But Hanna said that the administration was taking a “big roll of the dice that the US is not in control of”.

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“And that’s a particularly dangerous place to be,” he said. “In terms of what that might mean for US engagement and more direct military conflict; what it might mean for regional stability, American standing, politics and legacy.”

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Starmer says UK government is ‘unashamed’ to partner with private sector

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Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK government is “unashamed to partner with the private sector” in a set-piece speech that sought to boost flagging confidence in the British economy and his administration.

In his first address as prime minister to the Labour party conference in Liverpool on Tuesday, Starmer said he was willing to make “unpopular” decisions, but added he knew that people wanted “respite and relief” amid a cost of living crisis.

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Starmer is contending with falling poll ratings and dissatisfaction within the party about the government’s “gloomy” outlook as it seeks to fill what it says is a £22bn “black hole” in public finances.

The prime minister argued that tough government decisions now would allow Britain “much more quickly” to access the “light at the end of this tunnel”, as he promised that the cost of filling the hole in the public finances would be “shared fairly”.

He added that confidence in the country was “brittle and fragile” and had to be restored, as he promised “national renewal”.

He added: “But the cost of filling that black hole in our public finances that will be shared fairly.”

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Depicting his government as unashamed to work closely with the private sector to level up the country, Starmer said that Labour should be “proud to be the party of wealth creation”.

He said the government would give businesses more flexibility to adapt to the skills needs of employers through new “foundation apprenticeships” to give young people a way into work. 

He also announced that GB Energy, the new state-owned group intended to spearhead the transition to cleaner energy, would be headquartered in Aberdeen, a city set to be hit by Labour’s moves to curb offshore oil and gas extraction.

Speaking before he travels to New York to attend the UN General Assembly, Starmer urged “all parties to pull back from the brink” in the Middle East.

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InterContinental Dubai Festival City unveils newly-enhanced event centre

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InterContinental Dubai Festival City unveils newly-enhanced event centre

InterContinental Dubai Festival City has officially unveiled refurbishments made to its event centre. The large facility, officially titled “The Event Centre”, has been newly-enhanced following a significant amount of investment to not only refresh the popular venue, but also make it more technologically cutting-edge

Continue reading InterContinental Dubai Festival City unveils newly-enhanced event centre at Business Traveller.

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