Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for free

Your guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world

Joe Biden will address the nation for the first time since Donald Trump defeated his vice-president, Kamala Harris, in the 2024 US presidential election.

The White House said on Thursday that Biden, who ended his own re-election bid in July and endorsed Harris as his successor, would speak at 11am ET.

Biden called Trump on Wednesday to congratulate him on his victory and invite him to a meeting at the White House. Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for Trump, said the incoming president looked “forward” to the meeting with Biden, adding it would “take place shortly”.

This is a developing story

In the recent Autumn Budget, Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a significant increase in employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs), raising the rate from 13.8% to 15% and lowering the threshold at which employers start paying NICs from £9,100 to £5,000 per year. Set to take effect from April 2025, this dramatic NIC increase is expected to generate around £25 billion annually for the Treasury but could also lead to higher consumer prices as businesses in labour-intensive sectors like retail and hospitality brace for the financial impact.

Related:Labour’s Tax Bombshell Leaves Brits £300 Poorer: Record-Breaking Tax Burden Slams Wages, Soars Inflation, and Pummels UK Businesses

The rise in employer NICs has sent shockwaves through sectors heavily reliant on large workforces. Industry leaders warn that this added burden could force businesses to pass on increased costs to consumers, compounding the cost-of-living crisis.

Hospitality Sector Response to Employer NIC Increase

Tim Martin, chairman of JD Wetherspoon, has highlighted that the NIC hike will add an estimated £60 million to the company’s annual costs. He warned that such a significant financial impact would likely lead to price increases for customers, mirroring the broader concerns expressed by many hospitality businesses already grappling with economic pressures.

Retail Sector Impact: M&S, Sainsbury’s, and Primark React

Marks & Spencer (M&S) projects annual costs rising by £180 million due to the NIC increase combined with other recent budget measures, such as a minimum wage hike. While M&S aims to absorb some costs, they have warned that consumers will likely see higher prices.

Sainsbury’s, one of the UK’s largest supermarket chains, echoed similar concerns, indicating that the NIC hike will lead to unavoidable cost increases. To offset these additional expenses, Sainsbury’s may need to raise prices on goods and services, which will directly impact shoppers.

Primark has voiced similar challenges, noting that while it strives to avoid price hikes, the NIC increase and mounting financial pressures mean redirecting investment to key growth areas. Primark’s approach underlines the strain the NIC rise places on even the largest retail players.

Economic Consequences of NIC Hike and Consumer Costs

The increase in employer NICs, while intended to bolster public services, raises serious concerns about inflation and higher consumer prices. Businesses across the hospitality and retail sectors warn of potentially severe economic implications, including job cuts, reduced growth, and increased costs for everyday goods and services.

How Consumers Can Prepare for Price Increases

As companies grapple with the financial impact of the NIC hike, consumers can take practical steps to mitigate higher costs:

Review Your Budget: Adjust monthly budgets to accommodate potential price increases in essential goods and services.

Utilise Discounts and Loyalty Schemes: Seek out special offers, promotions, and loyalty programs to maximize savings at supermarkets and retail stores.

Compare Prices: Use apps and websites to compare prices and find the best deals.

Bulk Buying: Purchase non-perishable items in bulk to take advantage of lower per-unit costs.

Explore Alternatives: Consider substitute products or lower-cost brands without compromising on value.

Dine In More: Reduce dining-out expenses by preparing meals at home to save on hospitality-related costs.

Cashback and Rewards: Use cashback programs and credit card rewards to minimise the impact of rising prices.

Related:Cheapest UK supermarket to shop in 2024

FAQ: Understanding the Impact of the NIC Increase on Prices

What is the new employer NIC rate?
The rate has been increased from 13.8% to 15%, starting from April 2025.

Why is the NIC rate rising?
The increase aims to raise additional revenue for public services but poses challenges for businesses and could lead to higher consumer costs.

Which sectors are most affected?
Retail and hospitality, which rely on large workforces, are particularly impacted, with companies like JD Wetherspoon, Marks & Spencer, Sainsbury’s, and Primark voicing concerns.

Will consumer prices rise?
Many businesses anticipate that the added NIC costs will lead to higher prices for consumers, though the extent may vary by sector.

How can consumers cope with higher costs?
Consumers can budget carefully, shop for deals, use loyalty programs, and consider alternative products to manage rising expenses.

The Verdict: A Difficult Balancing Act for Businesses and Consumers

The rise in employer NICs presents a formidable challenge for businesses, especially in labour-heavy sectors like retail and hospitality. While companies such as JD Wetherspoon, Marks & Spencer, Sainsbury’s, and Primark explore ways to absorb costs, passing some of the burden onto consumers seems inevitable. As these changes approach consumers must prepare for a shifting economic landscape, with increased prices and new financial strategies to cope.

Schroders has appointed Phil Middleton as head of UK business.

Middleton, who is currently the firm’s CEO, Americas, will take on the role from 1 January 2025.

He replaces James Rainbow, who will be leaving Schroders to pursue opportunities outside of the business. Rainbow has been with the wealth manager for 17 years.

Middleton, who joined Schroders in 1992, has a track record of working in the UK market.

He said: “It’s fantastic to be returning to the UK market, where I have spent so much of my career.

“Schroders has an award-winning UK business, with a compelling investment proposition, dedicated to solving the complex investment needs of our clients.

“I look forward to leading our UK business to drive further success and growth.”

During his 32-year tenure at Schroder, Middleton has held senior roles across the business in distribution and marketing.

In 2020, he moved to New York after he was appointed head of institutional distribution, North America, overseeing direct sales, relationship management and consultant relations.

He became CEO of North America in January 2022 and was subsequently appointed in June 2023 as CEO Americas.

Meanwhile, Tom Darnowski has been promoted to CEO Americas.

Darnowski has been with Schroders since 2013 leading product development across the Americas and most recently held the role of global head of product strategy, where he oversaw Schroders’ global product range.

Both roles will continue to report to Karine Szenberg, global head of client group at Schroders.

Szenberg said: “We are excited to welcome Phil back to the UK, a market that he knows extensively and where he already has a well-established track record.

“The UK is an important and valued market for Schroders and we believe now is the right time for Phil to return to lead this part of our business.”

Schroders provides active asset management, wealth management and investment solutions, with £773.7bn of assets under management at 30 June 2024.

LONDONERS were surprised with a delightful twist as the festive season kickstarts – a charming miniature Christmas market featuring gnome-themed stores.

These whimsical stalls, which popped up overnight, were designed to be gnome-height, creating a magical atmosphere.

4

4

Advertisement

Despite their petite size, the stalls are run by regular-sized staff and visitors can explore the tiny market and enjoy complimentary festive treats.

To add to the excitement, lucky passers-by also have the chance to win a special Christmas gnome, as well as a bag full to brim of seasonal goodies.

The market stalls, standing at an adorable 3.5 feet high, will be open to the public on November 7 and 8 along the scenic Southbank.

David Hills, chief customer officer at Asda, said: “It’s been fantastic to see the response to our Christmas campaign.

“We’re thrilled that the nation seems to be falling in love with our gnomes, so what better way to celebrate than to bring some playful Christmas cheer to London with our gnome-sized market.

“Visitors will not only get the chance to be up, close and personal with our pint-sized heroes, they’ll also get to sample some of the incredible products which make up our Christmas range in a really fun and unique way.”

The market featured five mini market stalls, all tailored to match the individual passions and personalities of each gnome – Max, Gnibbles, Gnorma, Gnicky and Gnarla.

Head gnome Max was managing the ‘Magical Mince Pie’ stall and perfectionist party planner Gnorma hosted the ‘Glorious Grazing’ stall.

While surfer dude Gnarla took charge of the ‘Festive Afternoon Sea’ stall, decked out with an assortment of luxurious fish canapes.

4

4

Good morning and welcome to White House Watch. Let’s talk about the split screen in America and Wall Street’s giddiness over coming deregulation.

America’s deep fissures were palpable yesterday as the nation processed the election results.

Reporting from Arizona and Nevada, the two states yet to call the presidential race, the FT’s Myles McCormick and Chris Grimes found both ecstasy and desolation. As Republicans teemed with excitement over Donald Trump’s win, Democrats appeared completely gutted.

Trump’s supporters were fired up about the president-elect’s agenda, and eager for him to enact his policies ASAP. With Republicans set to take control of the Senate — and a solid chance they’ll keep the House of Representatives — the party will have significant legislative power.

Bruce Parks, chair of the Washoe county Republicans in Nevada, told Myles that he looked forward to Trump making good on his promises to increase oil production, shut the border, deport undocumented workers.

Meanwhile, Democrats were conducting a postmortem [free to read].

Matt Bennett, co-founder of centrist Democratic think-tank Third Way, told the FT’s Lauren Fedor:

The Democratic brand is pretty bad. The country has shifted pretty far to the right, and we were not aware of how deep the problem ran.

The voters that we lost . . . looked at Democrats and said: they don’t understand my life. I don’t want them representing me.

Now they need to figure out how to get it together in the years to come. Democrats must craft an agenda that proves the party understands voters’ biggest concerns, said Obama White House alumnus Ken Baer: “We need a generational change. We have had a gerontocracy of 80-year-olds running the Democratic party since Obama left. We need new blood and new leaders.”

When it came down to it, Democrats lost on the economy.

Charles Franklin, a non-partisan pollster and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, told me that the “most pervasive” issue in Wisconsin and nationwide was the cost of living:

People saw their financial situation now is considerably worse than it was four years ago.

You can argue about the macro economic indicators, but you can’t argue with people’s subjective feelings of how they’re doing, and that’s clearly worse.

Transitional times: the latest headlines

What we’re hearing

With Trump’s White House return in sight, US bankers, private equity titans and other financial services executives are drooling over the prospect of deregulation and the chance to boot Biden’s aggressive watchdogs.

While Trump hasn’t said yet who will take the top financial roles in his administration, financial services companies are anticipating industry-friendly picks.

Republicans are expected to usher a more permissive approach to everything from bank capital requirements to takeovers and consumer protection rules in the financial services sector. They’re also likely to allow a new wave of financial products.

After leading the regulatory charge, Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler has become the bane of the industry’s existence. With a new leader atop the SEC, money managers think Republicans will change rules that Gensler and other regulators have pushed through, and drop other contentious proposals.

Jack Inglis, chief executive of the Alternative Investment Management Association, told my colleagues: “We anticipate that the administration’s approach to financial regulation will be much more restrained and targeted . . . particularly when it comes to the SEC agenda.”

Many are also hoping Trump’s picks will adopt a more relaxed attitude to M&A than current antitrust officials Lina Khan and Jonathan Kanter. This could spur a dealmaking spree, and in turn boost investment bank earnings and invigorate private equity firms.

But it’s not an entirely rosy picture. Vice president-elect JD Vance has praised some parts of Khan’s agenda. Trump was also all over the place on antitrust, blocking AT&T’s acquisition of Time Warner because of his hatred for CNN, and he’s recently pledged to prevent Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel.

Viewpoints

• Under Trump, investors will thrive on unstifled market forces, volatility and low taxes. But they risk ending up weaker later, warns John Foley in his latest Lex column. [Available for Premium subscribers]

• America’s Democrats are part of a global trend as they join a graveyard of incumbents this year, John Burn-Murdoch points out.

• Anger has become the defining feature of western politics, writes Robert Shrimsley. Quelling it must be a democratic imperative.

• Trump’s victory poses huge risks — and, possibly, a calamity — for the global economy and the post-1945 world order, writes the FT editorial board.

• Democrats threw away a winnable election, writes Janan Ganesh. The reason why stems back to a decision made on August 12 2020.

• FT readers reflect on the election result, sharing how they feel about Trump’s victory and how they view the outlook for the US.