In a command post near the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, soldiers of the Separate Presidential Brigade bemoan the dithering in Washington about whether Kyiv can use western missiles to strike targets inside Russia.

If only they were able to fight “with both hands instead of with one hand tied behind our back”, then Ukraine’s plucky troops might stand a chance against a more powerful Russian army, laments an attack drone operator.

Surrounded by video monitors showing the advancing enemy, the battalion’s commander says his objectives have begun to shift.

“Right now, I’m thinking more about how to save my people,” says Mykhailo Temper. “It’s quite hard to imagine we will be able to move the enemy back to the borders of 1991,” he adds, referring to his country’s aim of restoring its full territorial integrity.

Once buoyed by hopes of liberating their lands, even soldiers at the front now voice a desire for negotiations with Russia to end the war. Yuriy, another commander on the eastern front who gave only his first name, says he fears the prospect of a “forever war”.

“I am for negotiations now,” he adds, expressing his concern that his son — also a soldier — could spend much of his life fighting and that his grandson might one day inherit an endless conflict.

“If the US turns off the spigot, we’re finished,” says another officer, a member of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade, in nearby Kurakhove.

Ukraine is heading into what may be its darkest moment of the war so far. It is losing on the battlefield in the east of the country, with Russian forces advancing relentlessly — albeit at immense cost in men and equipment.

It is struggling to restore its depleted ranks with motivated and well-trained soldiers while an arbitrary military mobilisation system is causing real social tension. It is also facing a bleak winter of severe power and potentially heating outages.

“Society is exhausted,” says Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of the foreign affairs committee of the Ukrainian parliament.

At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is under growing pressure from western partners to find a path towards a negotiated settlement, even if there is scepticism about Russia’s willingness to enter talks any time soon and concern that Ukraine’s position is too weak to secure a fair deal right now.

“Most players want de-escalation here,” says a senior Ukrainian official in Kyiv.

It would be naive to expect the applause we got two years ago

The Biden administration is aware that its present strategy is not sustainable because “we are losing the war”, says Jeremy Shapiro, head of the Washington office of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “They are thinking of how to move that war to a greater quiescence.”

Most threatening of all for Kyiv is the possibility that Donald Trump wins next month’s US presidential election and tries to impose an unfavourable peace deal on Ukraine by threatening to withhold further military and financial aid. Trump repeated his claim last week that he could rapidly bring an end to the war.

Ukraine’s staunchest supporters in Europe may wish to keep it in the fight but lack the weapons stockpiles to do so and have no plan for filling any void left by the US.

Kyiv confirmed it was laying the groundwork for future talks in spectacular fashion when its troops seized a swath of Russia’s Kursk region in a surprise cross-border incursion in August. Zelenskyy said the land would serve as a bargaining chip.

And last week, in an attempt to shape the thinking of his allies, Zelenskyy visited the US to market his so-called “victory plan”, a formula for bolstering Ukraine’s position before possible talks with Moscow. Zelenskyy described it as a “strategy of achieving peace through strength”.

Stepping into the maelstrom of the US election campaign, he held separate talks with President Joe Biden, vice-president Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent, Trump, to make his case.

At one point, Zelenskyy’s US mission veered towards disaster after he was criticised by Trump for resisting peace talks and censured by senior Republicans for visiting a weapons factory in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania accompanied only by Democratic politicians. But in the end, he persuaded Trump to grant him an audience and salvaged his visit.

“It was not a triumph. It was not a catastrophe,” the senior Ukrainian official says of Zelenskyy’s US trip. “It would be naive to expect the applause we got two years ago,” the official adds, referring to the president’s address before Congress in December 2022, for which he received multiple standing ovations and declared that Ukraine would “never surrender”.

Yet the Ukrainian leader left Washington empty-handed on two central issues: US permission to use western weapons for long-range strikes on Russian territory; and progress on Ukraine’s bid to join Nato. The Biden administration has resisted both, fearing it could encourage Moscow to escalate the conflict, potentially drawing in the US and other allies.

US officials were unimpressed by Zelenskyy’s “victory plan”, which includes requests for massive amounts of western weaponry.

An adviser who helped prepare the document says Zelenskyy had no choice but to restate his insistence on Nato membership because anything else would have been perceived as a retreat on the question of western security guarantees, which Ukrainians see as indispensable.

The victory plan is an attempt to change the trajectory of the war and bring Russia to the table. Zelenskyy really believes in it

Despite Washington’s misgivings, the ability to strike Russian territory is also central to Zelenskyy’s victory plan, says the adviser. While US officials have argued that Russia has already moved strike aircraft beyond the range of western missiles, Ukrainian officials insist there are plenty of other targets such as command centres, weapons caches, fuel depots and logistics nodes.

Destroying them could disrupt Moscow’s ability to wage war, show Russian leader Vladimir Putin that his objectives of seizing at least four whole provinces of Ukraine are untenable and disprove his conviction that the west will lose interest in supporting Ukraine.

“Russia should not be overestimated,” says Andris Sprūds, Latvia’s defence minister. “It has its vulnerabilities.”

Although Zelenskyy’s victory plan restated old objectives, its real significance is that it shifts Ukraine’s war aims from total liberation to bending the war in Kyiv’s favour, says the senior Ukrainian official.

“It’s an attempt to change the trajectory of the war and bring Russia to the table. Zelenskyy really believes in it.”

Multiple European diplomats who attended last week’s UN General Assembly in New York say there was a tangible shift in the tone and content of discussions around a potential settlement.

They note more openness from Ukrainian officials to discuss the potential for agreeing a ceasefire even while Russian troops remain on their territory, and more frank discussions among western officials about the urgency for a deal.

Ukraine’s new foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, used private meetings with western counterparts on his first trip to the US in the post to discuss potential compromise solutions, the diplomats said, and struck a more pragmatic tone on the possibility of land-for-security negotiations than his predecessor.

“We’re talking more and more openly about how this ends and what Ukraine would have to give up in order to get a permanent peace deal,” says one of the diplomats, who was present in New York. “And that’s a major change from even six months ago, when this kind of talk was taboo.”

Ukrainian public opinion also appears to be more open to peace talks — but not necessarily to the concessions they may require.

Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for the National Democratic Institute in the summer showed that 57 per cent of respondents thought Ukraine should engage in peace negotiations with Russia, up from 33 per cent a year earlier.

The survey showed the war was taking an ever heavier toll: 77 per cent of respondents reported the loss of family members, friends or acquaintances, four times as many as two years earlier. Two-thirds said they were finding it difficult or very difficult to live on their wartime income.

Life is about to get even tougher. Russia has destroyed at least half of Ukraine’s power-generating capacity after it resumed mass drone and missile strikes against power stations and grid infrastructure this spring.

Ukraine faces a “severe” electricity deficit of up to 6GW, equivalent to a third of peak winter demand, according the International Energy Agency. It is increasingly dependent on its three remaining operational nuclear power plants, the IEA noted. Were Russia to attack substations adjacent to these plants — despite all the obvious dangers — it could cause Ukraine’s power system to collapse, and with it heating and water supply. Central heating facilities in large cities such as Kharkiv and Kyiv are also vulnerable.

Another source of tension is mobilisation. Under new legislation, millions of Ukrainian men have been compelled to register for possible service or face hefty fines. At the same time, many Ukrainians know of men who have been randomly stopped at metro or train stations, often late at night, and carted off to mobilisation centres, a brief period of training and then the front line.

55%Share of Ukrainians who remain opposed to any formal cession of territory as part of a peace deal, down from a peak of 87 per cent last year

“It is perceived as abusive, worse than if you are a criminal, where there is at least due process,” says Hlib Vyshlinksy, director of the Centre for Economic Strategy in Kyiv. “It tears people apart. The real enemy is Russia, but at the same time they fear a corrupt, abusive enrolment office doing the wrong thing.”

If Ukrainians have warmed to the idea of negotiations, a majority — 55 per cent according to a KIIS polling in May — remain opposed to any formal cession of territory as part of a peace deal.

“People want peace but they are also against territorial concessions. It is hard to reconcile them,” says Merezhko, the chair of the foreign affairs committee.

However, the KIIS survey shows the share of respondents opposed to any territorial concessions has dropped sharply from a peak of 87 per cent early last year. It also found that Ukrainians might be open to a compromise whereby, in return for Ukrainian membership of Nato, Russian maintains de facto control over occupied parts of Ukraine, but not recognised sovereignty.

Other polls suggest Ukrainians are still confident of winning and will be disappointed by anything other than total battlefield victory. The biggest domestic problem for Zelenskyy might come from a nationalist minority opposed to any compromise, some of whom are now armed and trained to fight.

“If you get into any negotiation, it could be a trigger for social instability,” says a Ukrainian official. “Zelenskyy knows this very well.”

“There will always be a radical segment of Ukrainian society that will call any negotiation capitulation. The far right in Ukraine is growing. The right wing is a danger to democracy,” says Merezhko, who is an MP for Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party.

As the KIIS polling shows, making any deal acceptable that allows Russia to stay in the parts of Ukraine it has seized since its first invasion in 2014 will hinge on obtaining meaningful western security guarantees, which for Kyiv means Nato membership.

“The most important thing for us is security guarantees. Proper ones. Otherwise it won’t end the war; it will just trigger another one,” says a Ukrainian official.

“Land for [Nato] membership is the only game in town, everyone knows it,” says one senior western official. “Nobody will say it out loud . . . but it’s the only strategy on the table.”

Nato membership remains Ukraine’s key goal, but very few of the alliance’s 32 members think it is possible without a full, lasting ceasefire and a defined line on the map that determines what portion of Ukraine’s territory the alliance’s mutual defence clause applies to. The model floated by some is West Germany’s membership of the alliance, which lasted more than three decades before the fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification with the east.

“The West German model is gaining traction particularly in the White House, which has been the most sceptical about Nato membership,” says Shapiro of the ECFR. “The Russians would hate that, but at least it could be some opening gambit for a compromise.”

But even that would require a vast force deployment by the US and its partners that any US administration, Democratic or Republican, would likely balk at, given Washington’s focus on the threat from China. One question would be whether European powers would be willing to shoulder more of the burden.

And would Russia accept Ukraine’s entry into the alliance, an alignment with the west it has been trying to thwart militarily for a decade? Many on both sides of the Atlantic say it is unlikely.

“I don’t think Russia would agree to our participation in Nato,” says a senior Ukrainian official.

Anything short of full membership is unlikely to be enough to stop the Kremlin’s military aggression. “Even if we get a Nato invitation, it will mean nothing. It’s a political decision,” adds the senior Ukrainian official.

In what could be his last trip to Europe before standing down as president, Biden will chair a meeting of Ukraine and its allies in Germany on October 12.

A western official briefed on Zelenskyy’s talks in Washington said there were tentative signs that Biden might agree to advance the status of Ukraine’s Nato membership bid before he leaves office in January.

As he left the US this weekend, Zelenskyy said that October would be “decision time”. The Ukrainian leader will once again plead for permission to hit targets inside Russia with western-supplied munitions, knowing that it is one of the few options for bringing hostilities to an end.

“It’s about constraining Russia’s capabilities” and piling on pressure to get them to open talks, says the senior Ukrainian official. “It’s a real chance if we are thinking about resolving this war.”

Cartography by Cleve Jones

Boutique investment bank and management consultancy Raven has announced a new strategic partnership between its Raven Wealth Planning service line and premium investment management firm Aspen Advisers.

Through the collaboration, Raven Wealth Planning will integrate the Aspen portfolio range into its full suite of service offerings.

This strategic partnership reflects Raven’s “ongoing commitment” to enhancing the value and quality of services provided through its Raven Wealth Planning service line.

By including Aspen’s portfolios, Raven is broadening its core range of tailored investment solutions, designed to meet each client’s unique financial objectives, while still providing fair value.

Raven partner Simon Thompson said: “This collaboration brings together two teams dedicated to delivering innovative wealth management solutions, empowering our clients to achieve their financial goals with confidence.

“We are excited to work closely with Aspen, whose proven expertise and forward-thinking approach position them perfectly to support our clients’ evolving needs.”

Aspen founder and chief executive Andrew Spence added: “Many of the clients at Raven have relatively complex planning and investment requirements.

“We believe we are well placed at Aspen to support such clients with our broad and diverse range of investment solutions.

“Getting to know the Raven team on a recent trip to Edinburgh confirms the strong cultural alignment between the two businesses.”

Aspen is one of the fastest growing providers of managed portfolios on the market.

The partnership will allow Raven Wealth Planning to leverage industry-leading solutions.

The firms said that they are dedicated to providing clients with the tools and guidance they need to achieve their long-term financial goals.

Raven was created through consolidation of four independent yet complementary businesses, each of which served the same ecosystem but from a different service standpoint.

The business provides specialist advice to clients through its management consultancy, corporate finance, and wealth management services.

Through a boutique investment banking model, Raven is focused on helping its clients to plan, create and protect wealth, through growth-focused operational and transactional activity.

Headquartered in Belfast with a satellite office in China, Raven works with private and public organisations, investors, and shareholders internationally.

Aspen exclusively partners with financial planners to offer a comprehensive managed portfolio service.

It helps advice firms focus on delivering an exceptional client experience in order to achieve their goals.

IF your thermostat is in the wrong place you could end up paying hundreds of pounds more in energy bills.

As temperatures drop and you begin turning on the heating, it’s vital to ensure that your thermostat is not driving up your energy costs because it’s misjudging the temperature of your home.

1

Thermostats are used to control how your heating and monitor when your home has reached your desired temperature.

But if the thermostat is placed in the wrong place, it could be reporting inaccurate temperatures for the rest of the house, meaning your heating is working harder than necessary.

Heating the home typically makes up half of a UK household’s energy costs in winter, so has a big impact on your bills.

Joanna Flowers, service and repair engineer at British Gas, explained: “When deciding where to place your thermostat, the main thing is to ensure you don’t place it somewhere colder or warmer than the centre of your home.

“If you place your thermostat in the heart of your home – we often suggest internal hallways or living rooms – it will make sure you get your desired temperature and save on bills by only using as much heating as you need.”

With energy costs remaining stubbornly high and the winter fuel payment having been axed for some pensioners, it’s particularly important to make sure your heating is being accurately controlled.

The Energy Saving Trust (EST) has advised fitting thermostatic radiator valves, as well as a programmer and a room thermostat, to help optimise your central heating system.

The organisation says together the controls could reduce your energy bills by £95 annually.

When it comes to your thermostat the EST stressed the importance of ensuring it is in the right spot and set to the lowest comfortable temperature to minimise costs.

A spokesperson said: “Room thermostats need a free flow of air to sense the temperature, so they should not be blocked by curtains or furniture, or placed near heat sources that could give them false readings. 

“If you’re feeling warm enough, lowering your thermostat from 22°C to 21°C can save you £80 annually. Reducing it further from 21°C to 18°C can save you £230 each year.

“The World Health Organisation states that the most comfortable temperature range for most people is between 18°C and 21°C.” 

Where should I place my thermostat?

Placing your thermostat in the right place will make sure your home is heated effectively.

British Gas’ Flowers advised: “We suggest an interior wall as external walls are often much cooler, so the thermostat will tell the boiler to warm the house up when it might not need to.

“It should be at medium height because heat rises and you should avoid it being too close to radiators, cookers, direct sunlight or near draughts.”

A checklist for where to install your thermostat includes an interior wall, in a frequently used room near the centre of your home at a height of about 5ft.

The heating experts at Bestheating.com advise avoiding the following areas to make sure accurate temperature readings:

• In direct sunlight
• In the kitchen
• Near windows or doors
• In the hallway
• Above air vents
• Above a radiator

Any area that experiences sudden changes in temperatures, such as kitchens, bathrooms or draughty spots, could lead to inaccurate readings.

Similarly, you should avoid the coldest or warmest rooms in your house.

What should I do if I can’t move my thermostat?

Check if your thermostat is wired into your wall, if not you should be able to unscrew it and move it easily.

If so, you may need to upgrade to a wireless thermostat that will give you much more control over your heating.

A new smart thermostat can cost between £120 to £220, according to Checkatrade.com.

But this doesn’t factor in the thermostat’s installation cost, which is usually around £30 to £80 depending on how long it takes.

How else can I cut my heating bills?

If you turn your boiler’s flow temperature down as well as any thermostatic radiator valves in some rooms – you could save around £180 annually on your energy bills.

A couple managed to cut £400 off their EDF Energy bill by turning off their immersion heater.

Topping up loft insulation and switching to a smart meter can also bring a household further savings.

Reducing draughts and heat loss will also help to cut your heating costs so grab some draught excluders and consider increasing your insulation.

It’s also important to consider which rooms in your home need heating.

You won’t be using each one 24/7 so make sure the heating is off in any rooms that aren’t occupied.

There is also a list of other common boiler problems we’ve rounded up that could be pumping up your bills.

A noisy boiler could also indicate that your water pressure is low or there’s a pump failure.

If you spot rust on your boiler then it could mean you’re paying more than you need to on using your appliance.

Although rust itself does not cause issues, it could be a sign that there is a leak – which indicates there is a problem with your boiler.

It can also upset the temperature balance in your boiler, making it run less efficiently and ramping up costs.

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