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What a Middle East oil price shock could mean for US consumers

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This article is an on-site version of our Energy Source newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every Tuesday and Thursday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newsletters

Good morning and welcome back to Energy Source, coming to you from New York.

More than a million households remained without power in the US south-east as of yesterday evening, after Hurricane Helene devastated the region, killing more than 180 people and making the storm the deadliest since Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Down in west Texas, former president Donald Trump hosted a private fundraising event in Midland yesterday, where he made a pitch to oil donors for cash as his campaign enters its final stretch.

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The world is holding its breath as it awaits Israel’s widely expected retaliation against Iran for its missile barrage on Tuesday. The FT has a breakdown on how the IDF could respond, including attacks on Iran’s missile launchers or oil infrastructure.

Today’s Energy Source breaks down what this rapid escalation in the Middle East could mean for the US oil market, just as the country prepares to cast votes in the presidential election.

Thanks for reading,

Amanda

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Is the US prepared for a Middle East oil shock?

The prospect of an all-out regional war in the Middle East is higher than ever this week as the world braces for Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack.

The rapid escalation woke up an oil market that had otherwise been complacent about the Middle East conflict, which has caused no major supply disruptions. Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed as high as $76.03 before closing at $73.90 yesterday. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, closed 0.4 per cent higher at $70.10 a barrel.

The fear among traders is that an Israeli retaliation could target oil infrastructure in Iran, an Opec member that exports about 1.7mn barrels of oil a day. An attack could also move the region closer to a worst-case scenario for the oil market where Opec production is compromised and Tehran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for crude, sending prices spiralling into the triple digits.

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Ben Hoff, global head of commodity strategy at Société Générale, said: “It’s like a game of Jenga, where the question really becomes, once you’re at the seventh or eighth block, which one is it going to be that just ends up being a little bit too much, and the whole thing collapses on itself?”

Line chart of $ per barrel showing Crude prices are inching higher

What does this mean for the US? Harold Hamm, founder of Continental Resources and a donor to Donald Trump’s election campaign, warned the US was “unusually vulnerable” to a Middle East oil shock, blaming the Joe Biden administration policies for leaving the US shale patch in “weakened condition”.

But it’s not the 1970s any more. Thanks to the shale revolution, the US is the largest oil and gas producer, with output sitting at record highs. An oil shock from the Middle East is not going to devastate the US economy in the same way as it did then.

“The US is the most prepared out of any developed [economy] . . . to handle a significant disruption in the Middle East,” said Hunter Kornfeind, an oil market analyst at Rapidan Energy Group.

Line chart of Million barrels a day  showing US oil production sits at record highs

That’s not to say higher crude prices from market fears or a real disruption to global supplies won’t pinch consumers. 

While the US became a net exporter of petroleum in 2020, it remains a net importer of crude oil that’s often used in refineries, with imports totalling 6.48mn b/d last year, about a quarter of which is from Opec and the Gulf, according to the Energy Information Administration. Higher global market prices for oil will drive up the price of refined products such as petrol and diesel for American consumers.

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The US has a “big bridge cushion” of crude inventories to help mediate the effect of any price swings, say analysts. The country has about 383mn barrels (about 50 per cent capacity) left in its strategic petroleum reserve, which was created in the wake of the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s, in addition to 413mn barrels in commercial crude inventories. The US consumes roughly 20mn barrels of petroleum a day.

Line chart of Monthly net imports, millions of barrels a day showing US remains a net importer of crude oil

The White House began releasing oil from the SPR in 2021 ahead of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in an attempt to keep down domestic petrol prices. It released another 180mn barrels of oil from the reserve in 2022 after sanctions on Russia brought fears of supply disruptions.

Trump and his supporters, including Hamm, claim the Biden administration has left the country exposed to an oil shock, with Trump vowing to fill up the SPR “immediately” if elected in November.

Analysts brushed off the concerns. “The SPR is lower than it was pre-Ukraine. But at the same time, it still has enough to offset any kind of supply interruption at least for an immediate period,” Kornfeind said.

Absent a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, there’s also a lot of spare capacity from Opec sitting on the sidelines. Since late 2022, the oil cartel has artificially cut output, totalling about 5.7 per cent of global crude consumption in an effort to boost prices during weak global demand. In a meeting yesterday, top Opec+ ministers left their oil policy unchanged.

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“The market remains bearish on fundamentals for next year and does not believe oil supplies will be at risk despite the escalation,” said Amrita Sen, founder and managing director of Energy Aspects. “Prices may fall back after the initial rally.”

Line chart of Weekly stocks of crude oil in Strategic Petroleum Reserve, millions of barrels showing US emergency crude stockpiles are half full

Perhaps the biggest consequences for the US from higher global crude prices is at the ballot box. Escalatory action in the Middle East could drive up gasoline prices, just as Americans go to the polls next month to pick their next president.

Henning Gloystein, practice head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, said: “If there’s any major oil price spikes, that will be immediately felt at the pump, and that’s what American voters care about more than anything else in terms of daily pricing.”

A rise in petrol prices in the coming weeks was a “bad situation” for the election prospects of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, he added.

Power Points

  • TotalEnergies warns it will curb UK investments and restructure North Sea operations if the government increases its windfall tax as planned

  • Chinese investment abroad is surging from record levels as the country’s clean energy sector looks to set up manufacturing operations abroad in the face of US and EU tariffs.

  • Opinion: Alan Beattie explains why the US can’t impose its will over global trade in electric cars.


Energy Source is written and edited by Jamie Smyth, Myles McCormick, Amanda Chu, Tom Wilson and Malcolm Moore, with support from the FT’s global team of reporters. Reach us at energy.source@ft.com and follow us on X at @FTEnergy. Catch up on past editions of the newsletter here.

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Top block trader Andrew Liebeskind exits LMR hedge fund after 10 months

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Stay informed with free updates

Top Wall Street block trader Andrew Liebeskind has left hedge fund LMR Partners after less than a year, according to people with knowledge of his exit.

Liebeskind had joined the $11bn multi-strategy hedge fund in New York at the end of December last year to lead its equity capital markets division. He was previously head of primary strategies at Surveyor Capital, which is an equity investing part of Ken Griffin’s Citadel, the world’s best-performing hedge fund.

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The reason for Liebeskind’s departure is unclear. LMR declined to comment. Liebeskind did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Block trading is a lucrative corner of equity markets, in which banks auction large stakes in listed companies on behalf of shareholders. It is highly relationship driven: investment banks typically seek to gauge demand for potential deals before they have been made public, while not divulging private information to hedge fund clients.

Liebeskind was one of a group of prominent hedge fund traders subpoenaed by US authorities as part of a Securities and Exchange Commission probe into block trading practices, according to two people with direct knowledge of a subpoena issued in 2021.

The fact that Liebeskind’s communications were sought by US authorities as part of the probe was public knowledge when LMR hired him. Liebeskind was not accused of any wrongdoing.

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As part of this investigation, the SEC charged Morgan Stanley’s former head of the bank’s US equity syndicate, Pawan Passi, with fraud. The bank entered into a non-prosecution agreement with the US attorney’s office in Manhattan, paying a $249mn penalty earlier this year to settle civil and criminal charges.

Passi admitted to misconduct and agreed a deferred prosecution agreement with the US attorney. US authorities ultimately found no wrongdoing beyond Morgan Stanley and Passi.

LMR was founded in 2009 by Ben Levine, Andrew Manuel and Stefan Renold. They received seed capital from Donald Sussman’s Paloma Partners. Manuel left in 2015.

In 2018 Goldman Sachs’ Petershill Partners, which buys minority stakes in alternative asset managers, bought a stake in LMR. Last month Petershill announced it had sold its entire LMR stake back to the firm’s leadership team for a total consideration of up to $258mn.

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LMR employs more than 300 people in offices in London, Hong Kong, New York, Zurich, Glasgow, Dubai and Dublin. It adopts a market-neutral approach to trading systematic and discretionary strategies, across a range of markets including equities, fixed income and commodities.

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Rare new error discovered on King Charles £1 coins and it could be worth £1,000s if you spot it in your change

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Rare new error discovered on King Charles £1 coins and it could be worth £1,000s if you spot it in your change

AN unearthed rare King Charles III coin could be sitting in your spare change worth thousands of pounds.

An error £1 piece has been spotted by an online coin enthusiast that may be worth a hefty sum.

A rare 'Bee' £1 has been spotted by collectors who have

1

A rare ‘Bee’ £1 has been spotted by collectors who haveCredit: TIKTOK @COINCOLLECTINGWIZARD

“Bee” £1 coins were first put into general circulation in August this year with three million making their way into tills and pockets.

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But an error version of the coin appears to have also entered circulation.

TikTok user @coincollectingwizard explains in one their recent videos how the rare coin is made up of just brass instead of being struck with nickel-plated brass alloy on the inner ring and nickel brass on the outer ring like it should have been.

In the video, which has had almost 80,000 views, they say: “All new £1 coins are made with two metal rings.

“The outside is made from nickel brass while the inside is nickel-played brass alloy.

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“But the rare £1 coin that has been found recently is all one colour.”

The rare piece still comes with the King’s portrait on the front side and two bees on the reverse side, in honour of the monarch’s loves of nature.

Change Checker, which writes blogs on rare coins in the UK, said it had not seen the coin previously.

However, it said a similar error coin was released in 2017 that sold for £2,375.

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Other £1 error coins have been known to sell for up to £2,500.

Is Your 50p Worth More Than You Think

Rachel Barnes, coin specialist at Change Checker, said the error coin released in 2017 was believed to have been struck in error when an old round pound blank was mistakenly used, or the brass outer ring did not have the middle punched out.

She added: “We could likely see the same thing here (with the bee £1 coin), which will undoubtedly make the error coin incredible sought-after.”

Rachel also said that as few of the coin have been found, if you do stumble across the error version, to make sure you get it verified by The Royal Mint, the official maker of British coins.

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A spokesperson for The Royal Mint added: “The Royal Mint has tight quality controls in place and the chance of encountering any UK coin with error is exceptionally low.

“We always urge collectors to be cautious and to do their research.”

How to spot if your coin is rare

The most valuable and rare coins are usually the ones with low mintage numbers or an error.

A mintage number relates to how many of a certain coin were made, so the lower the number, the rarer and, generally, the more valuable a coin is.

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Meanwhile, error coins are pieces that were incorrectly struck during the manufacturing process.

The ultra-rare “lines over face” 50p error coin is one such coin, which has been known to sell for £1,500 in the past.

Meanwhile, others with little-known designs have been known to sell for up to £3,000.

How to sell a rare coin

There are three ways you can sell rare coins – on eBayFacebook, or in an auction.

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If you’re selling on Facebook, there are risks attached.

Some sellers have previously been targeted by scammers who say they want to buy a rare note or coin and ask for money up front to pay for a courier to pick it up.

But the courier is never actually sent and you’re left out of pocket.

Rather than doing this, it’s always best to meet a Facebook seller in person when buying or selling a rare note or coin.

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Ensure it’s a public meeting spot that’s in a well-lit area and if you can, avoid using payment links.

Next, you can sell at auction, which is generally the safest option.

You can organise this with The Royal Mint’s Collectors Service.

It has a team of experts who can help you authenticate and value your coin.

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You can get in touch via email and a member of the valuation team will get back to you.

You will be charged for the service though – the cost varies depending on the size of your collection.

You can also sell rare coins on eBay.

But always bear in mind, you will only make what the buyer is willing to pay at that time.

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You can search for the same note or coin as you have to see how much the same one has sold for on the website previously.

This can help give you an indication of how much you should sell it for.

How to spot valuable items

COMMENTS by Consumer Editor, Alice Grahns:

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It’s easy to check if items in your attic are valuable.

As a first step, go on eBay to check what other similar pieces, if not the same, have sold for recently.

Simply search for your item, filter by “sold listings” and toggle by the highest value.

This will give you an idea of how much others are willing to pay for it.

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The method can be used for everything ranging from rare coins and notes to stamps, old toys, books and vinyl records – just to mention a few examples. 

For coins, online tools from change experts like Coin Hunter are also helpful to see how much it could be worth.

Plus, you can refer to Change Checker’s latest scarcity index update to see which coins are topping the charts. 

For especially valuable items, you may want to enlist the help of experts or auction houses. 

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Do your research first though and be aware of any fees for evaluating your stuff.

As a rule of thumb, rarity and condition are key factors in determining the value of any item. 

You’re never guaranteed to make a mint, however.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

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Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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This 6.5%-Yielding Dividend Stock Just Closed the Final Phase of a Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity

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Motley Fool


Last fall, Enbridge (NYSE: ENB) made a bold strike. The Canadian pipeline and utility giant agreed to buy three natural gas utilities from Dominion in a $14 billion deal. The transaction would create the largest natural gas utility franchise in North America.

At the time, Enbridge’s CEO Greg Ebel stated, “Adding natural gas utilities of this scale and quality, at a historically attractive multiple, is a once-in-a-generation opportunity.” While it took a little more than a year, the company has finally closed this generational opportunity to expand its gas utility business. The deal significantly enhances the company’s ability to sustain and grow its 6.5%-yielding dividend.

Closing the final phase

Enbridge recently announced that it has closed its acquisition of Public Service Company of North Carolina (PSNC) from Dominion. The deal adds over 600,000 service customers in the state, which it serves with over 13,000 miles of gas distribution and transmission pipelines and other related gas infrastructure assets.

The utility should supply Enbridge with stable, low-risk cash flow backed by government-regulated rate structures and steady gas demand. That cash flow should grow in the coming years as Enbridge invests in expanding PSNC’s infrastructure to support rising gas demand in its service region.

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Closing the PSNC acquisition was the final phase of this transformational transaction. Enbridge previously closed the purchase of The East Ohio Gas Company in March and completed its deal for Questar Gas Company in June.

The trio of gas utilities significantly expands Enbridge’s gas distribution platform. It will supply 22% of the company’s annual adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), up from 12% before the deal. It further diversified the company’s business while increasing its exposure to lower carbon energy.

The new gas utilities also increased the company’s cash flow from stable regulated assets and enhanced its growth profile. Enbridge expects to invest 5 billion Canadian dollars ($3.7 billion) over the next three years into low-risk, quick-return projects, which will increase its earnings from these utilities.

Enhancing an already strong foundation

Enbridge has built one of the lowest-risk businesses in the energy infrastructure sector. The company has a diversified platform focused on four core franchises: liquids pipelines (50% of its EBITDA), gas transmission and midstream (25%), gas distribution and storage (22%), and renewable power (3%).

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About 98% of the EBITDA generated from those businesses comes from cost-of-service or contracted assets, which are very predictable and stable. As evidence, Enbridge has achieved its annual financial guidance for 18 straight years, despite two major recessions and two additional periods of oil market turbulence.

The company targets to pay 60% to 70% of its very stable cash flow to investors in dividends. It retains the rest to invest in its large backlog of commercially secured capital projects. The utility acquisitions pushed its backlog to CA$24 billion ($17.8 billion) of projects it should complete through 2028. Those projects give it lots of visibility into its future earnings growth.

The company expects those projects will help grow its EBITDA by about 5% annually. Meanwhile, it has additional investment capacity, thanks to its strong balance sheet, which it can use to sanction additional expansion projects and make accretive acquisitions, further enhancing its growth rate.

With a strong financial profile and visible earnings growth, Enbridge should have plenty of fuel to continue increasing its dividend. It could grow its dividend by as much as 5% per year over the medium term, further extending a streak that is currently at 29 straight years.

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An elite dividend stock

Enbridge has closed its once-in-a-generation opportunity to add three high-quality gas utilities to its portfolio. They enhance the stability of its earnings base, increase its diversification, and bolster its growth profile.

Because of that, Enbridge is in an even stronger position to continue growing its dividend. That makes it an excellent dividend stock to buy for the long term.

Should you invest $1,000 in Enbridge right now?

Before you buy stock in Enbridge, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Enbridge wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

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Matt DiLallo has positions in Enbridge. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Enbridge. The Motley Fool recommends Dominion Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

This 6.5%-Yielding Dividend Stock Just Closed the Final Phase of a Once-in-a-Generation Opportunity was originally published by The Motley Fool



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Supermicro And Fujitsu Partner For AI-Powered Server: What’s In Store?

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Supermicro And Fujitsu Partner For AI-Powered Server: What's In Store?


Supermicro And Fujitsu Partner For AI-Powered Server: What's In Store?

Supermicro And Fujitsu Partner For AI-Powered Server: What’s In Store?

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) has entered a long-term strategic partnership with Fujitsu Limited to develop and market a platform that will feature Fujitsu’s future Arm-based “FUJITSU-MONAKA” processor.

The platform is designed for high performance and energy efficiency and is scheduled for release in 2027.

The partnership will also focus on creating liquid-cooled systems for high-performance computing (HPC), generative AI, and next-generation green data centers.

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Fujitsu and Supermicro will combine their expertise to create a leading server portfolio.

Supermicro’s flexible Building Block design enables quick customization of servers for AI, HPC, and general computing, supporting both cloud and edge deployments.

The collaboration will involve Fsas Technologies Inc., a Fujitsu subsidiary, to deliver global generative AI solutions using Supermicro’s GPU servers and support services for data centers and enterprises.

“Supermicro is excited to collaborate with Fujitsu to deliver state-of-the-art servers and solutions that are high performance, power efficient, and cost-optimized,” said

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Charles Liang, president and CEO of Supermicro.

“These systems will be optimized to support a broad range of workloads in AI, HPC, cloud and edge environments. The two companies will focus on green IT designs with energy-saving architectures, such as liquid cooling rack scale PnP, to minimize technology’s environmental impact.”

Investors can gain exposure to Super Micro through iShares Future AI & Tech ETF (NYSE:ARTY) and Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SMCI ETF (NASDAQ:SMCX).

Price Action: SMCI shares are down 0.26% at $41.89 premarket at the last check Thursday.

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This article Supermicro And Fujitsu Partner For AI-Powered Server: What’s In Store? originally appeared on Benzinga.com

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© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.



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Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slip with focus on jobs report, wait for Mideast moves

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Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slip with focus on jobs report, wait for Mideast moves


US stocks drifted lower on Thursday as the focus tentatively turned back to the economy and the monthly jobs report. Meanwhile, worries over the Middle East conflict rumbled in the background.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell about 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved roughly 0.4% lower. All three gauges closed Wednesday slightly above the flatline.

Some calm has returned to a market rattled by escalating Mideast tensions that have driven sharp gains in oil prices. Israel has yet to launch its promised retaliation to Iran’s missile strike on Tuesday, amid efforts by Western and regional leaders to stabilize the situation.

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Investors are now bracing for the highly anticipated September jobs report on Friday, after a surprise uptick in private payrolls came alongside signs the labor market is loosening up.

Investors received more signs of general cooling in the labor market on Thursday. Weekly jobless claims ticked up slightly from the prior week. Meanwhile, planned layoffs in the US dipped from a five-month high, according to a report from Challenger, Gray and Christmas. But the firm’s vice president said the data showed the labor market is at an “inflection point.”

Any new signs of deterioration in the labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to follow up its 0.5% interest-rate cut last month with another jumbo move, despite policymakers’ expectation of a 0.25% cut in November.

Read more: What the Fed rate cut means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

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Meanwhile, the Israel-Iran crisis helped drive oil prices higher for a third day, another potential drag on economic activity. Brent crude (BZ=F) and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures were both up over 2% on Thursday.

On the corporate front, Levi Strauss (LEVI) shares tumbled over 10% in premarket after the jeans giant posted a disappointing revenue forecast and said it is considering a sale of its Dockers brand. Tesla’s (TSLA) stock continued to slide in the wake of downbeat delivery figures, as Reuters reported the EV maker has halted US online orders for its cheapest Model 3.

Live1 update

  • Stocks open lower with monthly jobs report on deck, Middle East tensions high

    Stocks opened lower on Thursday as investors turn their attention this week to monthly jobs data for clues about the health of the economy, while keeping a close eye on the Middle East conflict.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.3% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) moved lower 0.5% after all three averages closed above the flatline on Wednesday.

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    Investors await the highly anticipated September jobs report out on Friday morning. Weekly jobless claims releaseed on Thursday ticked up slightly from the prior week.

    In commodities, oil prices were up Thursday as the Israel-Iran crisis has raised concerns of supply disruptions in the region. Brent (BZ=F) and West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) each up more than 2% in early trading.



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Ripple and Mercado Bitcoin to launch crypto-enabled payments in Brazil

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Ripple and Mercado Bitcoin to launch crypto-enabled payments in Brazil


Mercado Bitcoin, one of the largest crypto exchanges in Latin America and a partner of Mastercard, is working with Ripple on crypto-enabled international payments.



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