Connect with us

Business

Where Israel could retaliate against Iran

Published

on

When Iran launched missiles at Israel in April, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government opted for a limited response, hitting back with a precision strike on an air defence system near Isfahan that showed Israel’s technological prowess, but did not force an escalation.

But in the wake of the 180-missile barrage from Iran on Tuesday night — which Israeli officials said was larger than anticipated — the Israeli response is expected to be less restrained. “Iran made a big mistake tonight,” Netanyahu said following the salvo. “And it will pay for it.”

Current and former officials say Israel’s options include attacks in Iran, such as on missile launchers or oil infrastructure. And some have even called for the more extreme scenario of strikes against its nuclear facilities.

One of the factors Israel had to bear in mind when responding to Iran’s April barrage — which Tehran launched in retaliation for a presumed Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus — was that Iran could direct the allied Lebanese militant group Hizbollah to unleash a barrage of rockets at Israeli cities.

Advertisement

But Israel’s devastating recent offensive against Hizbollah has reduced its ability to do damage, according to Israeli officials. In recent weeks Israel has killed Hizbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, decimated its chain of command and launched a massive bombing campaign in Lebanon that killed more than 1,000 people and degraded swaths of the group’s missiles and launchers.

The US, which played a key role in restraining Israel in April, seems less likely to hold its ally back this time. Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, said Iran would face “severe consequences” for its latest barrage, which Tehran said was a response to the assassinations of Nasrallah and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in July. He added that the US “will work with Israel to make that the case”.

The start of Israel’s recent offensive against Hizbollah — which began last month after thousands of the group’s pagers and other communications devices detonated en masse, killing more than 30 people and injuring more than 3,000 — provided a glimpse of the type of options at the disposal of Israel’s military and intelligence services.

Israel has repeatedly been linked to covert operations in Iran itself during its decades-long shadow war with the Islamic republic. In 2010, a cyberweapon called Stuxnet wreaked havoc in the country’s nuclear centrifuges by causing them to spin out of control. In another case a prominent nuclear scientist was assassinated outside Tehran with a remote-operated machine gun in 2020.

Advertisement

But given the scale of Iran’s barrage, which a person briefed on the situation said had targeted military and intelligence bases near Tel Aviv and facilities elsewhere, Israel is widely expected to respond by striking Iranian targets directly.

“It does not exclude other options — but for sure there should be a kinetic element in the Israeli response,” said Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu and fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America in Washington.

People stand on the remains of a missile
The remains of an Iranian missile that landed near the Israeli town of Arad © Menahem Kahana/AFP/Getty Images

The person briefed on the situation said various options were under consideration but one “gaining momentum” was a strike that would hit Iran economically, such as by targeting its oil production facilities.

Israel on Sunday carried out a similar operation against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Israeli fighter jets, supported by intelligence and mid-air refuelling aircraft, flew 1,800km — further than they would need to do to attack Iran — to bomb power plants and a port used to import oil and other military supplies.

Amidror said that operation could be a “prototype” for a raid on Iran, although a strike on the Islamic republic would be “more complicated”. The option is also unlikely to win favour with the US administration, which would be wary of disrupting oil markets in the weeks before the presidential election.

Advertisement

An alternative, which diplomats said western capitals had been attempting to persuade Israel to choose, would be for it to hit Iranian missile launchers involved in Tuesday’s barrage. They argued this would be seen as a symmetrical response and less likely to trigger a further cycle of retaliation.

Israel could also target senior figures in Iran instead of infrastructure. In his response to Iran’s missile salvo, Netanyahu name-checked several Hamas and Hizbollah leaders recently assassinated by Israel, such as Mohammed Deif and Nasrallah, warning they had not understood “our determination to defend ourselves and to exact a price from our enemies”.

“Apparently, there are those in Tehran who do not understand this either,” the prime minister said. “They will.”

Beni Sabti, a researcher in the Iran programme at the Institute of National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said he doubted Israel would do something as escalatory as targeting Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But he said senior figures in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard or advisers to the leader could be a target. “If they are not there, part of the leader is not there,” he said.

Advertisement

Hawks have called for Israel to go further, and use the opportunity created by the weakness of Hizbollah — which Iran built to be a deterrent against Israeli attacks — to target the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme, which Israel views as its most serious strategic threat.

“Israel has now its greatest opportunity in 50 years, to change the face of the Middle East,” former prime minister Naftali Bennett wrote on X. “We must act now to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime.”

Map showing nuclear sites across Iran

Yet despite Israel’s raid in Yemen, a strike on Iran’s nuclear programme — which is widely dispersed, with key elements in reinforced facilities deep underground — would be a far bigger task. Few observers think Israel could mount such an undertaking without US support, both to carry out the attack, and to ward off the Iranian response.

Amidror argued that whatever option Israel chose, the most important thing should be the message it delivered. “From my point of view, it doesn’t matter what. But it should be very precise and very decisive,” he said.

“We are not going to solve here the historical problems of Israel. What we want is to show Iranians that there is a price, a big one, that they will pay if they continue to attack Israel.”

Advertisement

Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels

Data visualisation by Steven Bernard and Alan Smith

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Business

FT Crossword: Number 17,858

Published

on

FT Crossword: Number 17,858

Source link

Continue Reading

Money

Major update after 100,000 state pensioners underpaid £10,000 each due to error

Published

on

Major update after 100,000 state pensioners underpaid £10,000 each due to error

A MAJOR update has been issued after tens of thousands of married female retirees were underpaid the state pension due to a government error.

The Parliamentary Ombudsman confirmed this week that it will launch a full investigation into the issue.

More than 100,000 women could have been underpaid state pension due to an error

1

More than 100,000 women could have been underpaid state pension due to an errorCredit: Alamy

Failings in the old state pension system left potentially more than 100,000 married women without the payments they were due.

Advertisement

These women have been contacted and informed that a “detailed investigation” has begun into this group of complaints.

If successful, the Government could be forced to hand out hundreds of millions of pounds in state pension arrears to all of the women who missed out.

This could include thousands of women who died without ever being paid the correct pension.

Read more on the state pension

Former Pensions Minister Sir Steve Webb criticised the previous system, calling it “archaic and sexist”.

Advertisement

“This is a major milestone in a long-running campaign for justice for thousands of married women,” he said.

“The fact that they did not know this was needed indicates a system which let them down and has cost them in many cases thousands of pounds through no fault of their own.”

These women did not ignore official correspondence and would clearly have made a claim had they realised it was needed one their husband retired, he added. 

Sir Steve estimates that some of these women will have lost out by £10,000 or more in the period since their husband retired.

Advertisement

How did the error happen?

Prior to a rule change in March 2008 married women could claim the state pension at age 60.

What are the different types of pensions?

This was initially awarded purely based on their own National Insurance record, which showed how many years they had made contributions.

If they had spent time at home raising a family or had other gaps in their employment history then their state pension could be very low.

For many, this could be as little as 25% of the full basic pension.

Advertisement

But when their husband claimed his state pension married women could get an increase in the amount they would receive.

If their husband had made enough contributions then the amount of state pension they would receive could increase to as much as 60% of the full basic pension.

How does the state pension work?

AT the moment the current state pension is paid to both men and women from age 66 – but it’s due to rise to 67 by 2028 and 68 by 2046.

Advertisement

The state pension is a recurring payment from the government most Brits start getting when they reach State Pension age.

But not everyone gets the same amount, and you are awarded depending on your National Insurance record.

For most pensioners, it forms only part of their retirement income, as they could have other pots from a workplace pension, earning and savings. 

The new state pension is based on people’s National Insurance records.

Advertisement

Workers must have 35 qualifying years of National Insurance to get the maximum amount of the new state pension.

You earn National Insurance qualifying years through work, or by getting credits, for instance when you are looking after children and claiming child benefit.

If you have gaps, you can top up your record by paying in voluntary National Insurance contributions. 

To get the old, full basic state pension, you will need 30 years of contributions or credits. 

Advertisement

You will need at least 10 years on your NI record to get any state pension. 

But this uplift only happened if they made a further state pension application once their husband retired.

Tens of thousands of married women assumed that because they had already applied for the state pension they would be paid the correct amount.

Those who did not make a second claim would remain on the low pension indefinitely.

Advertisement

If they found out about the potential uplift later they could only backdate their claim by one year, leaving them thousands of pounds out of pocket.

In cases seen by Sir Steve Webb some women potentially missed out on more than a decade of increased pension payments.

More shockingly still, many women were only notified of what they needed to do to claim if their husband ticked a box on his state pension pack.

Doing so would mean that two state pension claims forms were sent to him, one of which was to be given to his wife.

Advertisement

Failure of the husband to tick the box or to pass on the form to his wife would mean that she missed out.

Meanwhile, she could also be unfairly penalised if the DWP only sent one form rather than two.

When did the rule change?

The system was changed in March 2008 so that married women received a state pension uplift automatically without needing to make a further claim.

But women who had made a claim before 2008 did not benefit from the rule change.

Advertisement

During the investigation, the Ombudsman will ask the Department for Work and Pensions for all of the information available to married women when the letters were sent.

It will then share its preliminary findings with the DWP and those making a claim before it reaches a final recommendation.

What can I do about it?

You can contact the DWP directly and query whether you have been affected.

Another option is to use an online tool or advice site to see whether they can help.

Advertisement

An online tool launched by Sir Steve Webb on behalf of actuarial firm LCP can help married women check if they might be affected.

You can then contact the pension service to get your state pension entitlement reviewed.

What are state pension errors?

STEVE Webb, partner at LCP and former Pensions Minister, explains what state pension errors are and how they can occur:

Advertisement

The way state pensions are worked out is so complicated that many thousands of people have been paid the wrong amount for years without even realising it.  

The amount of retirement pension you get usually depends on your National Insurance (NI) record. 

One big source of errors has been cases where NI records have been incorrect, particularly for years spent at home with children. 

This is a system known as ‘Home Responsibilities Protection’.

Advertisement

Alternatively, particularly for older pensioners, the amount you get can depend on the NI contributions made by your spouse. 

Errors have arisen where the Government has failed to adjust the pensions of married women when their husbands retired or failed to increase pensions when someone was bereaved and lost a husband or wife.

Although the Government has spent years trying to fix these problems, there are still many thousands of people – many of them older women – on the wrong pension.

If you have always thought that your pension seems low, then it is worth contacting the Pensions Service to ask them to check, especially if you spent time at home raising children or if you were widowed and your pension didn’t change when your spouse died.

Advertisement

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

The man behind Japan’s $170bn bid to prop up the yen

Published

on

The man behind Japan's $170bn bid to prop up the yen

For several years, Masato Kanda hardly slept.

“Three hours a night is an exaggeration,” he laughs as he speaks to the BBC from Tokyo.

“I slept for three hours consecutively before being woken up but I then went back to bed, so if you add them up, I got a bit more.”

So why was this 59 year-old bureaucrat’s schedule so punishing?

Advertisement

Until the end of July, he was Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, the country’s top currency diplomat, or yen czar.

Key to the role was fending off currency market speculators that could trigger turmoil in one of the world’s largest economies.

Historically, authorities intervened to weaken the value of the Japanese currency. A weak yen is good for exporters like Toyota and Sony as it makes goods cheaper for overseas buyers.

But when the yen plummeted during Mr Kanda’s time in office it increased the cost of importing essential items like food and fuel, causing a cost of living crisis in a country more used to seeing prices fall rather than rise.

Advertisement

In his three years in the role, the value of the yen against the US dollar weakened by more than 45%.

To control the yen’s slide, Mr Kanda unleashed an estimated 25 trillion yen ($173bn) to support the currency, marking Japan’s first such intervention in almost a quarter of a century.

“The Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance are very clear. They intervene not at a particular level of the currency, but they intervene when market volatility is too much,” says economist Jesper Koll.

Japan now finds itself on the US Treasury’s watchlist of potential currency manipulators.

Advertisement

But Mr Kanda argues that what he did was not market manipulation.

“Markets should move based on fundamentals but occasionally they fluctuate excessively because of speculation, and they don’t reflect fundamentals which don’t change overnight,” he says.

“When it affects ordinary consumers who have to buy food or fuel, that is when we intervened.”

While countries like the US and UK can raise interest rates to boost the value of their currencies, Japan had for years been unable to put up the cost of borrowing due to the weakness of its economy.

Advertisement

Professor Seijiro Takeshita of the University of Shizuoka says Japan had no other option other than to intervene in the currency markets.

“It is not the right thing to do, but in my opinion it is the only thing they can do.”

The irony is that the yen’s value jumped in recent months without Mr Kanda or his successor lifting a finger after the Bank of Japan surprised the markets with a rate hike, and the country got a new prime minister.

So was the $170bn bid to prop up the yen a waste of money?

Advertisement

No, says Mr Kanda and points out that his interventions actually made a profit although he emphasises that it was never a goal.

On whether or not his actions were ultimately successful he says: “It is not up to me to evaluate, but many say our exchange management stopped the excessive level of speculation.”

Markets or historians should be the final judges, he adds.

After decades of economic stagnation, Mr Kanda also sounds an optimistic note about Japan’s prospects.

Advertisement

“We are finally seeing investments and wages rising, and we have a chance to go back to a normal market economy,” he says.

A more surprising legacy for this “humble public servant” is him becoming a star on the internet after Japanese social media users celebrated his ability to surprise financial markets with a series of AI generated dancing videos.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Money

Pension fund pooling model is a ‘paradigm shift’ for UK property

Published

on

Pension fund pooling model is a ‘paradigm shift’ for UK property

Don’t want full access? REGISTER NOW for limited access and to subscribe to our newsletters.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

OpenAI feels competitors breathing down its neck

Published

on

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella expressed a common view in the tech industry when he said recently that large language models, the engines behind the generative AI boom, are becoming “more of a commodity”.

With a handful of leading model-builders vying for bragging rights with each new iteration of their AI, it is becoming hard to separate OpenAI’s latest GPT from Anthropic’s Claude or Google’s Gemini. 

Advertisement

That makes it all the more notable that Nadella’s Microsoft has just lined up behind OpenAI’s latest funding round, boosting its valuation to $150bn. Will this moment be looked back on as the peak of generative AI mania?

Valuing any fast-growing tech company in a new market is notoriously difficult. But the extent to which generative AI has transformed the tech landscape and the speed of OpenAI’s emergence have left investors groping for yardsticks and historical comparisons.

First, consider what it has built. ChatGPT, launched nearly two years ago, became a hit consumer brand almost overnight and now claims 250mn users a week. The $20 monthly subscription fee paid by a small minority has lifted its annualised revenue to $3.6bn.

OpenAI could also be on the way to becoming a wider tech platform. Many other companies have integrated its AI into their own products and services. The tools it is building to make its technology more useful in the business world have given it a rare opening in the enterprise market.

Advertisement

It is tempting to draw parallels with earlier hot start-ups, such as Google. When the search company’s stock market value first hit $150bn, in 2006, it was not the clear winner in search that it went on to become, with less than half the market. Its $10bn in revenue that year was similar to the $11bn OpenAI is reported to project for next year.

But it is here that the comparisons break down, and the scale of the challenge ahead for OpenAI becomes more apparent. Google was already churning out cash in 2006. OpenAI, without a functional business model, is on track to burn through more than $5bn of cash this year, with little prospect of stemming the flow in the short term.

Along with the sharply escalating expense of training ever-larger models, the considerable computing power needed to respond to users’ prompts will continue to weigh heavily on margins as it grows. Nor does it seem to be able to use pricing as a weapon. Although it has brought down prices rapidly to match greater efficiencies in responding to queries, the costs of querying for other LLMs that are available through the main cloud services have fallen pretty much in parallel.

That points to OpenAI’s biggest challenge: the lack of deep moats around its business, and the intense competition it faces.

Advertisement

On the consumer side, Meta said last week that 500mn people are now looking at its Meta.AI at least once a month, a sign of the vast, captive markets available to OpenAI’s Big Tech rivals. Google and Meta also have ready-made advertising businesses, which have proved to be the best route to monetising large-scale digital audiences.

ChatGPT can point to a favoured position on the iPhone, thanks to a deal with Apple. But Apple is only making the chatbot available through its Siri assistant, and even then only for handling questions that are beyond the current capabilities of its own AI models — hardly a recipe for long-term success as OpenAI tries to cement its early consumer gains.

Competition on the enterprise side is also growing fast. Close ally Microsoft is diversifying away from its early reliance on OpenAI, while the capabilities of open source AI models have advanced rapidly, making them viable alternatives. Meta’s Llama hasn’t yet become “the Linux of AI”, as Mark Zuckerberg suggested last week, but the risk of commodification that Nadella warned about looms large.

At this point, it is worth remembering that generative AI is still in its infancy, and that the vast resources being poured into the technology could still hold big surprises and bring considerable unanticipated disruption.

Advertisement

OpenAI’s latest models hint at the potential. Its voice-powered GPT-4o has been credited with breaking new ground in naturalistic voice interaction, potentially opening up new consumer markets to AI. And it claims its GPT-o1 is the first model capable of breaking a complex problem down and reasoning its way to a solution. That could point to a future where AI models themselves take on more of the work in a business application, sucking value out of traditional software as they become more central to working life.

It is impossible to tell how far capabilities like these will advance and whether OpenAI can maintain a meaningful edge in model-building. But with the most powerful companies in tech closing fast, investors backing the group at $150bn will need a strong stomach.

richard.waters@ft.com

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Money

Warning to drivers as fuel prices set to soar if conflict in Middle East continues to escalate

Published

on

Warning to drivers as fuel prices set to soar if conflict in Middle East continues to escalate

FUEL prices could soar if the Middle East conflict escalates, drivers were warned last night.

The cost of oil climbed by around five per cent in just two days to $76 per barrel, as Israel vowed to retaliate against Iranian missile strikes.

Drivers have been warned that petrol prices could soar if the Middle East conflict escalates

1

Drivers have been warned that petrol prices could soar if the Middle East conflict escalatesCredit: Alamy

One option open to the Israeli military is to hit Iran’s oil refineries — which despite western sanctions still supply many countries worldwide.

Advertisement

Analysts said a major escalation could take the oil price to $100 a barrel — driving up pump costs for motorists.

The warning comes at a time when petrol prices here have been falling.

They were down 6.5p a litre in September, putting £3.60 back into drivers’ pockets every time they fill up a 55-litre tank.

Petrol is now 134.9p a litre and diesel 139.5p — marking one of the biggest price drops in 24 years, the RAC says.

Advertisement

A second threat to prices is the Budget on October 30.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves will have to decide whether to keep the current fuel duty freeze, as well as a 5p reduction brought in by the Tories.

The Sun’s Keep It Down campaign has saved drivers £90billion in tax over 14 years.

AA boss Edmund King said: “Global oil prices tend to increase with any geo-political uncertainty.

Advertisement

“The Government should avoid the temptation to hike fuel duty in the Budget as drivers and industry would face a double hit.”

Iran has exposed it’s hand after 180-missile blitz says expert

Fawad Razaqzada, analyst at City Index, said: “The extent of Israel’s response to Iran will influence how much geopolitical risk markets factor in. Crude oil could rise another $5 in the next few days if we see further escalation in the conflict.”

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, warned a major escalation in tensions could push oil prices to $100 a barrel.

And David Oxley, of Capital Economics, said such a rise could add 13p to the cost of a litre.

Advertisement

About a fifth of global oil comes from the Gulf region.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2024 WordupNews.com