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Where will the Indian Rupee head after a fresh low against the US Dollar?- The Week

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India markets jump, rupee falls to record low in morning trade on impending US Election results- The Week

Over the last few days, the Indian Rupee (INR) has been depreciating against the Dollar (USD). The Rupee dropped to a fresh low against the Dollar to an exchange of Rs 84.38 on Thursday. 

This depreciation against the Dollar in recent days following Trump’s election victory, as expectations rise that his policies may further strengthen the dollar index. 

Few market experts with whom THE WEEK spoke feel that given the resilience of the Indian economy, this rupee dip appears temporary and will appreciate in the days to come, and some of them say that it will be a while before the Rupee heads back. 

“Adding to our economy’s strength, the Fed’s past two interest cuts will bring a gradual increase in dollar supply which could support the Rupee’s recovery. However, it’s crucial to closely monitor Trump’s proposed trade policies, such as imposing tariffs of 10 per cent or more on all US imports and potential hikes on Chinese imports, to assess their long-term effects on the Rupee,” remarked Edul Patel, Co-founder and CEO of Mudrex. 

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Experts feel that the Rupee has hit fresh record lows over the past few sessions due to a host of domestic and global factors. Many feel that the Rupee may continue to remain weak over the near term. “We expect the US Dollar index to strengthen further on growth optimism over Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential elections as his pro-growth stance has to be funded by enhanced borrowings, leading to further weakness in the US bonds. As the US bond yields are likely to rise further on Trump’s win, it may be negative for the domestic currency,” Anuj Choudhary, research analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas, told THE WEEK. 

He remarked that the emerging market currencies are vulnerable. The Chinese economy is also not performing that well, which has led to weakness in the Yuan. This may strengthen the Dollar further and weigh on risk currencies such as the Rupee. “Unless China announces a huge stimulus that may impress the markets/investors, we do not expect the Yuan to recover. In fact, if Trump hikes tariffs on imports from China, the Yuan may need to be devalued further to make Chinese exports competitive. This would again be negative for the Rupee,” added Choudhary. 

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This expert is of the opinion that the domestic economy is not faring too well either. There have been huge FII outflows over the past couple of months. If the trend continues, further foreign outflows can be seen, which could lead to higher demand for the Dollar. India’s CPI rose to 5.49 per cent in September, overshooting RBI’s target of 4 per cent for market expectations of 5 per cent. RBI has projected India’s inflation for FY25 at 4.5 per cent, despite concerns over inflation. Rising food inflation may also continue to mount pressure on the Rupee. 

Interestingly, in his speech, Donald Trump said that he was going to stop all wars. In such a case, there could be some cooling off in commodity prices, and the risk premium would decline. 

“A decline in crude oil prices would benefit the Rupee as it is the biggest contributor to India’s import bill. This may support the Rupee at lower levels. Any fresh foreign inflows amid improved global risk sentiments may also support the Rupee at lower levels. The Indian bonds may get support from India’s bonds inclusion in the FTSE Russell’s major global bond Index next year. FOMC rate cuts and the possibility of the RBI cutting rates in December or January may limit the downside in the Indian bonds, which may support the Rupee. In the near term, we expect the Indian Rupee to trade in the range of 84 or 83.80 on the lower side. On the higher side, we expect the Rupee to test at 84.80 or 85 levels. The trend is bearish for the domestic currency,” explained Choudhary. 

ALSO READ | SBI quarterly results beat estimates, but shares tank

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The recent all-time low of the Rupee against the Dollar reflects global uncertainties, but strategic developments could alter the outlook. It is expected that the Rupee will remain under pressure in the short term until more clarity emerges on the geopolitical and global trade landscape; however, the medium-term outlook looks positive. With Donald Trump winning the US election for a second time, his historically positive relationship with India could play a vital role in supporting the Indian currency. “Trump’s administration previously promoted pro-India policies that strengthened trade and investment ties, and this established rapport could foster more favourable trade terms, boost bilateral investments, and potentially stabilize foreign inflows into India. Such an alignment would benefit both markets, as stronger economic cooperation could attract investment, drive trade, and support broader financial stability,” Rohit Beri, the CEO and CIO of ArthAlpha. 

This expert adds that for India, this could mean a bolstered rupee as more US–India trade and investment flows in. Meanwhile, the US could gain from a stable partner in India, with growth-driven collaboration across technology, manufacturing, and energy. “The positive economic cycle generated could lead to job creation, market expansion, and innovation sharing, setting up a strong foundation for the future of both economies,” remarked Beri. 

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Little-known Arctic city named Europe’s most underrated destination for a white Christmas

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Kiruna is the northernmost city in Sweden and it's also said to be the best underrated place to experience a white Christmas

SWEDEN’S northernmost city has been named Europe’s most underrated destination for a white Christmas.

Located in Swedish Lapland, Kiruna is a mining town that’s home to just under 20,000 people – and it’s said to be the best place for Brits to experience a white Christmas.

Kiruna is the northernmost city in Sweden and it's also said to be the best underrated place to experience a white Christmas

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Kiruna is the northernmost city in Sweden and it’s also said to be the best underrated place to experience a white ChristmasCredit: Alamy
Kiruna Church is one of the most iconic buildings in the town thanks to its red colour

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Kiruna Church is one of the most iconic buildings in the town thanks to its red colourCredit: Alamy

Ferry operator DFDS analysed 23 years of snowfall data across a whopping 164 destinations in Europe.

The operator cross-analysed snowfall data with the least-searched destinations on Google to find the best place to see snow on Christmas Day.

Kiruna, Sweden‘s northernmost city, was crowned the winner with a 70 per cent chance of snow on December 25.

The Swedish city only had 100 Google searches per month, with only 12 per cent of Brits surveyed aware of the Swedish city.

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Located in northern Sweden, Kiruna is an outdoor enthusiast’s dream destination from its deep forests, lakes, rivers and mountains.

The nearby Abisko National Park is ideal for hiking and experiencing the Midnight Sun in summer.

It is also a good destination to see the Northern Lights, which are often visible on winter nights – although its appearance is never guaranteed.

Other attractions include an Ice Hotel and the Esrange Space Centre, which offers insights into space research.

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Additionally, Kiruna Church, one of Sweden’s largest wooden buildings, is worth a visit for its beautiful architecture.

Although the location of Kiruna Church is set to change next year when the entire city is relocated two miles south.

Explore Dalarna: Sweden’s Ultimate Summer Destination

Kiruna sits above the largest known deposit of the rare elements, which are used to make electric car batteries and wind turbines – this is roughly 80 per cent of the European Union‘s supply.

However, after years of mining, the land has been deformed and cracks have even started to appearing in the town.

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This is why the entire town is set to be shifted two miles away, with each building set to be relocated.

It is hoped that the ambitious project will be finished by 2026, with Kiruna Church set to be moved at some point next year.

Kiruna is also the traditional home of the indigenous Sámi people.

The land of the Sámi people stretches across the very north of Sweden, Norway, Finland and Russia.

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Visitors to Kiruna can learn more about the Sámi people through a range of activities like reindeer herding.

Kiruna has its own airport – Kiruna Airport.

Flights from Kiruna Airport only operate to Stockholm, which means Brits will need to change in the country’s capital to reach the arctic city.

Sun Online Travel have found return fares in January from London to Kiruna for £180.

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Top 10 most underrated places for a white Christmas

HERE are the top ten most underrated places for a white Christmas.

  1. Kiruna, Sweden
  2. Lillehammer, Norway
  3. Turku, Finland
  4. Tallinn, Estonia
  5. Innsbruck, Austria
  6. Oslo, Norway
  7. Bergen, Norway
  8. Brasov, Romania
  9. Stavanger, Norway
  10. Lucerne, Switzerland

Meanwhile, these are the six best European cities to visit in 2024.

And this “timeless” European city serves as a great double for Rome.

Brit holidaymakers will need to fly from the UK to Stockholm before boarding another flight to the Swedish city

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Brit holidaymakers will need to fly from the UK to Stockholm before boarding another flight to the Swedish cityCredit: Alamy

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Prudential taps Morgan Stanley’s Chappuis to lead asset management arm

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Jacques Chappuis and David Hunt

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Prudential Financial has recruited a top Morgan Stanley executive to take over its $1.4tn asset management arm as it seeks to expand the division’s international reach and offerings in alternative assets.

Jacques Chappuis will join as PGIM’s chief executive in May, replacing David Hunt, who is retiring after a 13-year stint that saw assets under management double and the firm become a top-five player in US active fixed income and real estate investing.

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Chappuis, who also previously worked at Citigroup and Carlyle, has been the co-head of Morgan Stanley Investment Management since January.

Prudential wants to double PGIM’s contribution to the group’s earnings from 12 to 24 per cent over the next seven years, said Andy Sullivan, Prudential’s head of international and investment management, who led the search for Hunt’s replacement.

PGIM, currently ranked 15th in the world by AUM, hopes to capitalise on the growing trend for large clients to do more business with fewer providers. It is also seeking to bulk up further in private assets, which carry higher fees, and win mandates for multi-asset solutions from other insurers as well as pension funds and endowments.

“We are at an inflection point both as an industry and for us as a business,” Sullivan said. “This was a very difficult search. We needed someone who had deep experience across asset classes.”

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Chappuis “is a humble, decisive and determined leader,” Sullivan said

PGIM’s alternatives business rose by more than 50 per cent to $336bn under Hunt’s leadership. The group made several small acquisitions and was looking for others that would expand its global reach and give it more heft in areas such as infrastructure equity, Sullivan said.

After Chappuis’s arrival, Hunt will stay on as PGIM chair until July to ensure a smooth transition.

Morgan Stanley told staff late last month that Chappuis was stepping down, leaving Ben Huneke as the sole head of investment management. They had been running the division together since January, when the elevation of Ted Pick to chief executive was accompanied by a broader reorganisation.

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“I’m proud to become PGIM’s next president and CEO, leading an incredible team through its next chapter of growth,” Chappuis said in a statement. “I look forward to building upon the firm’s successes.”

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Ninety One to adopt SDR label for Global Environment Fund

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Ninety One to adopt SDR label for Global Environment Fund

Ninety One has announced that it will adopt the ‘Sustainability Impact’ label on its Global Environment Fund from 1 December.

The firm claims the fund will become one of the first to use this label under the Financial Conduct Authority’s Sustainability Disclosure Requirements (SDR) regime.

The fund is managed by Deirdre Cooper, head of sustainable equity, and Graeme Baker, co-portfolio manager.

The global equity portfolio provides exposure to the multi-decade structural growth opportunity from decarbonisation, driven by the need to transition to net zero.

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The fund focuses on identifying businesses whose structural growth is driven by decarbonisation across three key pathways: renewable energy, resource efficiency and electrification.

Cooper said: “As an active, global investment manager, Ninety One’s goal is to provide long-term investment returns for its clients while making a positive difference to people and the planet.

“The Global Environment Fund’s unconstrained and focused approach, combined with a long-term investment horizon and active engagement, is a powerful way to invest in decarbonisation.

“The adoption of the ‘Sustainability Impact’ label by the Global Environment Fund is testament to our commitment to have a quantifiable carbon saving impact, enabling the transition to a net zero world.”

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Ninety One, established in South Africa in 1991 as Investec Asset Management, is a global investment manager managing £127.4bn in assets.

The firm said it will be writing to the fund’s shareholders shortly with details of the updates to the prospectus, which are being made to align the relevant disclosures with the SDR.

The FCA’s sustainability rules for firms come into force on 2 December. However, the regulator recently offered firms flexibility and extended the deadline to next April.

The sustainability rules are designed to protect consumers by ensuring sustainable products and services they are sold are accurately described.

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This will include model portfolios, customised portfolios and/or bespoke portfolio management services.

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Employers eye staff pension schemes to cut national insurance bills

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More companies say they will use salary sacrifice schemes to structure their staff pension arrangements to reduce the impact of tax changes announced at the Budget.

Businesses including J Sainsbury, JD Wetherspoon and BT have this week attacked chancellor Rachel Reeves’ plans to raise up to £25bn a year by increasing employers’ national insurance contributions from next April.

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The move has triggered a flurry of interest in salary sacrifice schemes, in which employees give up a portion of their salary in exchange for their employer paying those funds directly into their pension. 

The arrangement, well established among larger employers, but much less common among smaller businesses, enables employees to pay less income tax as they receive a lower headline salary. However, as employers’ national insurance is not levied on staff pension contributions, companies now have more of an incentive to use these schemes.

In the wake of the Budget, more than one in five owners of small and medium-sized businesses said they were now “more inclined” to use salary sacrifice arrangements on pension contributions, according to a survey of about 900 UK companies commissioned by the Global Payroll Association.

From April, the salary threshold at which employers start paying NI will be cut from £9,100 to £5,000, and the tax rate will rise from 13.8 to 15 per cent.

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Nick Bustin, employment tax director at chartered accountant Haysmacintyre, said conversations with clients in the days since the Budget had “almost exclusively been around pensions salary sacrifice”.

While some smaller firms will be able to use the enlarged employment allowance to mitigate NI increases, not all of them will satisfy the criteria. “We’re talking to low headcount tech companies, health sector organisations and the education sector,” he said.

Smaller firms have traditionally shied away from such schemes because of the complication it adds to their payroll process, but advisers said this was now likely to change.

“Historically it’s not been worth the hassle for them,” said Robert Salter, director at business advisory firm Blick Rothenberg, adding: “What I suspect is that smaller companies over the next few weeks will look at salary sacrifice.”

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Under the current auto-enrolment pension rules, the total minimum contribution for a qualifying pension scheme is 8 per cent of an employee’s earnings — 3 per cent of which must be paid by the employer. All 8 per cent — or higher depending on the pension policy — is paid by the employer when an employee uses a pension salary sacrifice scheme.

“A critical question in all cases is what happens to the employer NI costs that are saved: generous employers give it all back to the employee in extra pension contributions but this isn’t always the case,” said Tom McPhail, pensions specialist at consultancy The Lang Cat.

Steven Leigh, associate partner at professional services firm Aon, calculates that a small company with 10 employees each earning £35,000 would suffer a £9,200 rise in its NI bill following the Budget changes.

But by paying 5 per cent of its employees’ income into pensions instead of wages, the company would save £2,625, offsetting about 30 per cent of the increase in employer NICs. The employees would save about £140 a year in employee NICs.

“The majority of companies with 100-plus employees would offer this already,” Leigh said. “For those firms that don’t offer it, it’s become even more of a no-brainer.”

In assessing the merits of salary sacrifice schemes, advisers warn that employers must be careful not to lower employees’ cash earnings below the minimum wage.

“It’s a big risk that firms need to consider,” said Neil Carberry, chief executive of the Recruitment & Employment Confederation, a trade body for recruiters. “Minimum wage is up 26 per cent in the past three years — salaries above £20,000 can be swept up.”

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Employees should also be mindful of their statutory maternity pay, Leigh adds. “Statutory maternity pay is linked to salary at a particular point in time. So if somebody were to be using salary sacrifice, their salary might fall below a certain level, which might mean they have a lower level of statutory maternity pay further down the line.”

For higher earning staff, the benefits of salary sacrifice include being able to navigate frozen income tax thresholds by saving more into a pension. Staff on the cusp of the £60,000 threshold, where Child Benefit starts to be withdrawn, could save more into their pension and keep more of their benefits. Similarly, parents on the cusp of £100,000 could be able to keep valuable childcare benefits including tax-free childcare and “free” hours of childcare.

Additional reporting by Claer Barrett

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Tesco brings back 80s Christmas treat as thrilled shoppers say ‘I don’t care how much – I’m buying it’

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Tesco brings back 80s Christmas treat as thrilled shoppers say ‘I don’t care how much - I’m buying it’

TESCO has brought back an iconic Christmas treat from the 80s, with shoppers claiming “I don’t care how much – I’m buying it”.

The retro dessert, returning to supermarket shelves after a four-decade hiatus, is on sale for £10.

Tesco has brought the Tunis Cake in the runup to this Christmas

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Tesco has brought the Tunis Cake in the runup to this ChristmasCredit: Tesco

An alternative to traditional Christmas fruit cake, the Tunis Cake is a Madeira sponge, spread with a thick layer of chocolate.

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It’s decorated with vanilla-flavoured icing in vibrant pink and orange colours, along with a trio of marzipan fruit.

After news spread of the long-awaited return, social media users rushed to share their excitement.

One particularly elated customer thought nothing of the £10 price tag, saying: “OMG I am buying this I don’t care! These always make me think of Nanny.”

Another echoed: “My mum brought for Christmas. Glad it’s back. Happy memories.”

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Others described the nostalgic treat as “immense” and “a blast from the past”.

The Tunis Cake was a festive staple in the 80s, but its origins actually stretch all the way back to Edwardian times.

It was popularised in the 1930s, when Scottish bakery Macfarlane Lang’s put in British stores for the first time.

The company then merged with biscuit giant McVities, who continued churning out the cake until the 1980s.

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Tesco‘s modern version is produced by bakery Say it with Cake.

Unearthed Tesco receipt from 1989 shows just how different prices were 32 years ago

It comes as another nostalgic product – by Cadbury’s – was also spotted at B&M stores this month.

Fans had feared the Fuse Bar had gone extinct years ago, before it reappeared in a miniature grab-bag version in the budget store.

One said: “I can’t believe the fuse is back! Its about time.”

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Another wrote on Facebook: “Wow fuse! Need to get them haven’t seen them in a long time.”

How to save money on your food shop

Consumer reporter Sam Walker reveals how you can save hundreds of pounds a year:

Odd boxes – plenty of retailers offer slightly misshapen fruit and veg or surplus food at a discounted price.

Lidl sells five kilos of fruit and veg for just £1.50 through its Waste Not scheme while Aldi shoppers can get Too Good to Go bags which contain £10 worth of all kinds of products for £3.30.

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Sainsbury’s also sells £2 “Taste Me, Don’t Waste Me” fruit and veg boxes to help shoppers reduced food waste and save cash.

Food waste apps – food waste apps work by helping shops, cafes, restaurants and other businesses shift stock that is due to go out of date and passing it on to members of the public.

Some of the most notable ones include Too Good to Go and Olio.

Too Good to Go’s app is free to sign up to and is used by millions of people across the UK, letting users buy food at a discount.

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Olio works similarly, except users can collect both food and other household items for free from neighbours and businesses.

Yellow sticker bargains – yellow sticker bargains, sometimes orange and red in certain supermarkets, are a great way of getting food on the cheap.

But what time to head out to get the best deals varies depending on the retailer. You can see the best times for each supermarket here.

Super cheap bargains – sign up to bargain hunter Facebook groups like Extreme Couponing and Bargains UK where shoppers regularly post hauls they’ve found on the cheap, including food finds.

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“Downshift” – you will almost always save money going for a supermarket’s own-brand economy lines rather than premium brands.

The move to lower-tier ranges, also known as “downshifting” and hailed by consumer expert Martin Lewis, could save you hundreds of pounds a year on your food shop.

Tesco is selling the cake in-store and online

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Tesco is selling the cake in-store and onlineCredit: Getty

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Tiger-backed French fintech Qonto seeks €5bn valuation in share sale 

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Alexandre Prot

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French fintech Qonto is talking to investors about a sale of existing shares that could value it at €5bn, the latest of such deals as companies seek to reward employees and early backers in the face of a weak market for listings.

The neobank has been exploring selling at least €200mn in stock held by employees and early investors and has held discussions with several funds, according to people familiar with the matter.

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Qonto, already one of France’s most valuable technology companies, is seeking a valuation of about €5bn, the people said. But they cautioned that no price had been set yet, and said it was unclear if any agreement would be reached. 

Qonto was last valued at €4.4bn during a 2022 funding round in which it raised €486mn from investors including Tiger Global, TCV and Tencent. The company declined to comment on the latest share offering.

The sale would make Qonto the latest fintech company to turn to the secondary market at a time when exits for founders and investors are difficult because the IPO market remains tepid.

A successful deal would make Qonto one of the few European fintechs to increase their valuation in recent years after higher interest rates and shifting investor sentiment battered the sector, ending a period of hypergrowth that had pushed fundraising levels to a record in 2021.

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Revolut, Europe’s largest tech company, in August closed a $500mn sale of employees shares, with its value growing from $33bn to $45bn. Other UK fintechs Monzo and GoCardless are also targeting similar deals.

David Sainteff, partner at Global Founders Capital, said several European fintechs were well-positioned for secondary sales because they had reached a more mature stage, had developed scale and lenders were benefiting from higher rates.

“Since 2021, many early employees have recognised that opportunities for liquidity events may be limited and IPOs postponed,” Sainteff said. “We’re likely to see more and more employee share sales at successful companies, as these firms will need to attract, retain and motivate top talent.”

Qonto was founded in 2016 by entrepreneurs Alexandre Prot and Steve Anavi with the aim of providing better financial services to other entrepreneurs.

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It provides a suite of services including invoice management for more than 500,000 small and medium companies in France, Spain, Italy and Germany. The fintech does not have a banking licence but provides credit through partnerships with other institutions.

Qonto’s growth has been fuelled by entrepreneurs, sole traders and small companies, but it has in recent years sought to attract bigger clients, as well as offering software services.

The group has also embarked on a European expansion, announcing earlier this year that it would launch in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Portugal. 

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