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Why even a PhD isn’t enough to erase the effects of class? With Anna Stansbury

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This is an audio transcript of The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes podcast episode: Why even a PhD isn’t enough to erase the effects of class?

Soumaya Keynes
You’ve heard about racial inequality. You have heard about the glass ceiling. Today we are going to be talking about something that in the US hasn’t had as much attention — the class ceiling. A recent working paper argues that we really need to think about it because independently of race or gender, people’s family circumstances seem to be holding them back. And that’s the case even after they have done enough work to get a doctor in front of their name. This week, we are going to talk about the finding that even a PhD isn’t enough to erase the effects of class.

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This is The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes. I’m joined today by Anna Stansbury of MIT Sloan School of Management and one of that study’s authors. Anna, hello.

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Anna Stansbury
Hi. Thank you for having me.

Soumaya Keynes
Thanks so much for being here. OK, so first question, you are a Brit and you live in America. So on a scale of one to 10, how much of a problem do you think that Brits perceive class-based inequalities?

Anna Stansbury
Seven.

Soumaya Keynes
Seven? OK, OK. So pretty present. What about the US?

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Anna Stansbury
Four.

Soumaya Keynes
Ooh. OK. So the US is not doing so great on class consciousness. I mean, what do you think the main kind of qualitative difference is in how people talk about class between those two countries?

Anna Stansbury
Well, so when I first moved to the US, which was 11 years ago and talk to fellow grad students at the time, they would say in the UK, the problem is class, in the US, the problem is race. And that’s a pithy way of explaining kind of the big salient factor that people think about when they think about social and socio-economic inequality in each country. And there are good reasons why race is a lot more salient in the US. But class is also a factor independent of race, and I think people are aware of that in the extent to which it determines whether you go to school in a good place, but not really later in the life course.

Soumaya Keynes
Right. OK. OK, well, look, let’s step back for a second, though. What exactly do you mean by class?

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Anna Stansbury
So class is one of those words that is hard to define very specifically. Typically, when sociologists talk about class and they’re the academic discipline that thinks about it the most, they’re talking about the set of qualities and resources you had that determined your opportunities. So I’m talking specifically here about class background. So what was the class that you were raised in? And that’s some combination of the income and wealth that your family had as a kid because that determines your resources and your opportunities. That’s also the education that your parents had and the kinds of occupations that they worked in, because that determines some of the slightly less tangible aspects of tacit knowledge about how elite careers work and how education works and aspects of cultural capital. So whether you have access to the kinds of cultural knowledge that give you social status in certain groups, all of those factors together in some combination are what we talk about when we talk about class.

Soumaya Keynes
OK, so class as distinct from income, essentially?

Anna Stansbury
Class as much more than just income, yeah.

Soumaya Keynes
OK. All right. Well, what made you want to look into this question of whether class holds people back? I mean, I know you were struck moving from the UK to the US, but what made that into a research question?

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Anna Stansbury
So part of it was this, I think being from the UK makes you think a lot more about how these factors matter even later in life. Obviously in the UK class background can be a lot more salient in things like accent than it is in the US. But I think I believed that it probably mattered in similar ways in the US as well. And then what really got me into the research question was I was doing some kind of activism, advocacy-type work on gender and race in economics, diversity. Economics is bad on gender and race, as you’ve noted in prior work. And I wondered if this was also true about class and found some data that enabled me to investigate that and that sort of set me off on this route of trying to figure out whether class matches for people even once they’ve done their education, even once they’ve got a PhD, even once they’ve got into an elite career.

Soumaya Keynes
Yeah, because I mean, one thing your paper obviously does focus on is people who are pretty much in the elites, right? You’re looking at people with PhDs. And I suppose one question is why should we care about them? Right? We know that they’re doing pretty well.

Anna Stansbury
There’s a couple of different reasons we should care, and this is true of any kind of diversity. One is equity. We should care if people have opportunities to fulfil their talents for reasons of equity and justice. But the other is a very kind of banal economic reason, which is efficiency. If you assume that talent for something is equally distributed, then we should care if people that are talented aren’t getting to fulfil that talent because it’s worse for overall productivity and overall outcomes.

Soumaya Keynes
OK. And that’s essentially the high-level question that you’re asking in your working paper, which is if you compare people, do people from different backgrounds perform differently later on in their academic careers, having got that PhD? So can you just tell us a bit more about the methodology? How do you start going about answering this question?

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Anna Stansbury
Yes. So we have data from the National Science Foundation in the US which surveys a representative sample of people that got their PhD in the US. So we have basically a very large representative sample of everyone that got a US PhD since about 1993. The sample goes back to them. And so what we do is we ask the question conditional on getting your PhD in the same field from the same institution, does your class background affect what kind of job you end up in later in your life?

Soumaya Keynes
OK. So that’s interesting because you might think that your background would affect the kind of subjects that you would study and which institution you go to. But you’re kind of trying to essentially wipe all of that and say, no, we’re comparing people who are basically very, very similar, right? They’ve got their PhD from the same place in the same subject and what happens next?

Anna Stansbury
Exactly. So you can think about it as a very high bar to pass because we’re saying it’s quite plausible to believe that your class background might affect whether you manage to get into a PhD program at a really elite university because of all the prior factors in your life. But it might be much less simple to believe that your class background is gonna continue to affect you after that. And I think this is what has surprised people about these findings is that we find that it does continue to matter even if you get your PhD at the same program.

Soumaya Keynes
So just starting off, how exactly do you measure class?

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Anna Stansbury
So we use parental education background. As I said before, this is only one of the aspects that feeds into class background. Unfortunately, we can’t measure the rest in our data. And this is actually why class background is rarely studied. It’s very rare for surveys to ask this kind of question, particularly in the US. So we have parental education and we cut it into four groups, people who are first-gen college graduates. So they had no parent that got a four-year college degree, people who had a parent with a college degree but no graduate degree, people who have a parent with a graduate degree that’s not a PhD. So that would be MD, doctors, JDs, lawyers, MBAs, masters in education. And then finally, people that have a parent with a PhD, and we look at those four groups separately.

Soumaya Keynes
Just out of interest. If you got to be God for a day and could gather whatever data you wanted, what would your dream measure of class include?

Anna Stansbury
Great question. I think I would ask four things, and this tends to follow what I think a lot of sociologists would ask when they ask about class. It would be parental education, ideally not just the level, but also where they got that degree. It would be family income or wealth when they were a child. Again, ideally, both of those things because you might have low income but high family wealth. It would also be your parent’s most common occupation when you were a kid. And then finally, there’s a question people often ask that is trying to capture some combination of all of these which asks you to think about social status as a ladder and then place where you think your family was on that ladder. So that’s a sort of self-perceived measure of where you stood as a child in the overall socioeconomic distribution.

Soumaya Keynes
OK. I mean, that sounds attainable.

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Anna Stansbury
Absolutely. It’s definitely attainable. It’s just rarely asked.

Soumaya Keynes
OK. Well, in this survey, we have data on parental education, so that’s what you use. OK, let’s move on to what outcomes you look at, right? Because you’re looking at whether family background matters for success, what counts as success here?

Anna Stansbury
So what we look at mostly is success in academic careers. And we define this in a couple of ways. First, we look at do people end up in a tenured academic job? And then we look at where they end up, what kind of institution? So we use a couple of different measures for how prestigious their institution is. One is how research intensive it is, which reflects how much research funding you get and other kinds of opportunities an academic would want to have. And the other is the rank of the institution.

Soumaya Keynes
OK, so you’re actually looking at placement after they get their PhD? Can you look at anything else like pay, for example?

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Anna Stansbury
Yes. So we actually do also look at pay. In academia specifically, the sort of currency of success is less clearly only pay than it is in many other professions, which is why we mostly look at the kinds of institutions and whether people have tenure. But we also look at pay, and then we also look separately at the PhDs who go off into private sector careers instead of academia, which is a very large share of PhD recipients. And for those people, we look at pay as the primary measure, and then we also look at whether they end up later in their career in managerial positions.

Soumaya Keynes
OK. So you’ve got a fairly wide range of things that you look at. So what do you find?

Anna Stansbury
The top-level finding is a big class gap in career progression, even for two people from the same PhD program. So we can break that down into looking at the folks that went into academia and the folks that went into industry, private sector. In academia, we find that there is a big gap in the prestige or rank of the institutions that people end up employed at as professors. So a first-generation college grad is about 13 per cent less likely to end up as a tenured professor at a research-intensive university than someone from the same PhD program who is from a more advantaged background. And specifically, this more advantaged background that I’m referring to here is someone with a parent that had a non-PhD-graduate degree. So a parent that was like an MD, a JD, an MBA. We cut out those PhD parents because we think they might have academia-specific advantages that aren’t really about class background.

Soumaya Keynes
OK, so you see this class ceiling, are you able to look at any trends over time? I mean, I would really hope that perhaps this had become better as there was more thinking about inclusion, diversity.

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Anna Stansbury
Yeah. So I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but we actually don’t see any improvement over time. We have a relatively long time period. We have data from 1993 to 2021, and we don’t see any obvious improvement in this class ceiling or this class gap in where people end up conditional on that PhD program.

Soumaya Keynes
OK. Well, that’s not very happy, is it? I suppose it could be something to do with preferences, though, right? I mean, you know, the obvious conclusions draw from that is there’s some sort of discrimination, implicit bias against people who don’t grow up with the same kinds of resources as others. But what if it’s that, some types of people from a particular family background just have different priorities in their career? Maybe they want to go to an institution that may not be the highest-ranked institution but may have more of a social mission. Is that possible?

Anna Stansbury
Yeah. So we do a lot of work to try and understand if this is driven by preferences and we can’t find any strong evidence that it is. So one strong reason you might think, preferences or constraints play a role, is differential financial backgrounds. Academia in the US is relatively lucrative, but it’s not as negative as going into the private sector.

So you might think that people from less advantaged backgrounds are choosing to leave academic jobs or leave academia altogether and go get better-paid private sector jobs. We don’t see that that’s happening on average. You might think it’s what you raised, which is this idea of preference for social mission and being willing to trade off rank and prestige of institution for serving a less advantaged population. Sure, that happens to some extent, but we aren’t able to find evidence of that when we look at is there a difference in terms of the income of the student body that the school serves.

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We also thought about whether geographic constraints might play a role. If someone from a less advantaged background, there might be more constraints in terms of living far away from family. For example, if they’re a breadwinner or a carer for a family member. But again, we conditioned on distance from home as proxied by where they went to school. And again, we don’t find that that explains the gap. So we tried quite hard to see if preferences can explain it, but on average, it doesn’t seem to.

Soumaya Keynes
But that’s interesting that people from different socioeconomic backgrounds are just as likely to sort of stay in academia, right? It’s not that, because in say, gender, it looks like women are disproportionately dropping out of academia. And that is one thing that contributes to gaps in their outcomes. But more generally, how does this class gap operate differently to the gaps in gender or race?

Anna Stansbury
Yeah, this is a really interesting one, and I think we’re just scratching the surface here. I think it’s a super fruitful topic for research. So one thing to emphasise before I answer that question specifically is that when I’m talking about the class gaps that we estimate, we’re estimating them conditional on race and gender. So what that means is that our effects aren’t driven by, for example, in the US context, African-American PhD students are also more likely to be first-gen college grads. When we’re comparing outcomes of first-gen college grads, the people from more advantaged backgrounds, we’re effectively comparing them within racial groups. So within African Americans, within Asian Americans, within white Americans, and so on.

So having said that, our results aren’t driven by race, but we can compare them to the gaps by race and gender. And as you said, with gender, the big phenomenon is what you call the leaky pipeline. Women are falling out of the academic pipeline at every stage. They’re less likely to go on to get a tenure-track job, they’re less likely to get tenure. But actually, if you look at the women that stay in academia, there’s not that much of a gender gap in what kinds of institutions they end up employed at. They’re at similarly ranked, similarly prestigious places.

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The class gap looks the opposite. There’s no leaky pipeline. There’s no sense in which first-gen college grads are less likely to stay in academia. But when they do, they end up employed at these less prestigious places.

Race gaps. It’s shameful to say, but unfortunate, but still relatively few African American and Hispanic professors in our sample. So we estimate these with a lot of noise because it’s hard to get a precise estimate if you have a smaller sample. But the race gaps look more similar to the class gap, where you see these big gaps in the institution, rank and prestige.

Soumaya Keynes
But less so in the staying in academia?

Anna Stansbury
Yes, exactly.

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Soumaya Keynes
Just a quick question. Can you do anything to compare between subjects? Are some subjects worse than others? I’m thinking about economics, that is the name of the show. 

Anna Stansbury
So we do try and compare across subjects and we just don’t really find much going on there. Our data’s Stem and social sciences. So we compare the physical sciences, the biological sciences and the social sciences. The patterns look pretty similar across all three groups. We don’t have a super large sample of economists in this data, so we can’t say for sure that economics is not worse. But we don’t see any strong evidence that economics is worse.

This is different, by the way, to some of my prior work, which is just looking at the composition of people by class in fields. And in that sense, economics is worse. So the way you can think about it is when you look at PhD students, economics really stands out as having the lowest share of first-generation college grads of any PhD field in the US. So it’s doing really bad in terms of class diversity. But once you’re taking people who’ve already got their PhDs and looking at how they progress, economics then doesn’t look any worse than the other fields in terms of having disparate rates of success.

Soumaya Keynes
So just on that, do you have a theory as to why economics is so bad in attracting a diverse group of students?

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Anna Stansbury
Yeah, I think there are probably three things going on and I don’t know what role proportionately to this place. One of them I think is that economics is a subject where it’s not exactly obvious what it is or what it involves. And so you see that even at the college level, first-gen college students are less likely to major in economics in the US or to take an economics degree in the UK. Probably in large part because it’s not clear what economics is, what it does, what it’s useful for, and studies that sort of just provide information and nudges do find big enrolment increases from all kinds of minority under-represented groups, not just first-gen college grads, also women, also racial minorities. When there’s more awareness of what economics is and what it does.

The second is that economics has a big drop off from people that major in econ to people that then go on to graduate school to get a PhD, particularly for first-gen college grads. And I think that is probably because economics has really good outside options. So if you get an economics degree, you can get a very well-paid job after college. And that might be disproportionately attractive to people who have come from backgrounds that have less financial security. So I think that in some way, economics is a victim of its own success, specifically on that metric.

The third one, which I think is almost surely playing a role that have not been able to measure, is, I think, the way economics is taught and some of the language and inherent assumptions in sort of econ 101 and a lot of the economics profession can feel quite hostile to people from less advantaged backgrounds. And some of the language we use can feel quite off-putting, some of the assumptions, especially in their core econ 101 style teaching. So just to give one example, referring to workers as unskilled, referring to people that choose not to go to college as low ability in these models. Those kinds of terms feel offensive and inaccurate, I think. And when people have lived experience or family members who would fall into those terms in the econ vernacular, I think that could feel like this is not a subject for me. This is not a subject that describes the world accurately.

Soumaya Keynes
OK. Well, a lot for economists to think about there. Just building on this idea of outside options, though, and returning to your paper about outcomes for PhD holders. I know that you said that there wasn’t really much difference in who decided to stay in academia or not. But how does academia compare to other professions? Do you see what happens to people if they do choose to go into government or the private sector? Is the class gap still there?

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Anna Stansbury
So we look at the three other big destinations for PhD recipients. That’s the private sector, government and jobs in education that are not tenure-track academic jobs. So this could be teaching jobs at universities, at community colleges, or the kinds of education jobs. In industry in the private sector, we also find a class gap. Now, our measures here are slightly different because obviously, we don’t see whether someone is a tenured professor because that doesn’t exist in industry. We look at someone’s salary and how that progresses over their career and we look at whether they end up in positions with managerial responsibility. And we find a class gap in both that widens over the course of their career. So when PhD recipients, you know, first get their job in the private sector, there isn’t negative class gap in outcomes, but as they stay in these private sector jobs over their career, you see the salary gap widening and you see that people from first-gen college grad backgrounds are less likely to end up as managers. So that suggests to us pretty strongly that there’s a similar class gap, class ceiling dynamic in the private sector.

Soumaya Keynes
And what about the public sector?

Anna Stansbury
So the story is more optimistic in the public sector. In government and in non-tenure track education, we don’t find a class gap in salary or in managerial responsibilities. So it doesn’t look like, at least on those metrics, there’s a class ceiling.

Soumaya Keynes
Do you have any thoughts on what might be going on there?

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Anna Stansbury
So this is just speculation because we don’t have enough data really on what jobs people are doing in these other sectors to know exactly what’s happening. My guess is that particularly in government, there are more standardised pay scales and kind of promotion requirements that make it less easy for disparities to creep in. We also see smaller gender gaps in pay in government than we see in the private sector, although that’s not the focus of our paper. I think it’s an interesting comparator, but I don’t know for sure.

Soumaya Keynes
OK. Well, I think it’s time to throw to a break. But look, this is a controversial topic. And when we get back, I want to ask about the response to your research. So what it has been and what you wish it had been and what you think should be done next?

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Soumaya Keynes
We are back from the break. So what has been the most common critique you’ve heard, most common pushback against your paper?

Anna Stansbury
So one of the common pushbacks has been, how does this even happen among two people who’ve got their PhD from the same program? Hasn’t the effective class all kind of been washed out by having got this elite degree at this elite place? And I think depending on your experiences, that is either very obvious that those effects may not be washed out or not very obvious at all. And for me, I think maybe coming from the UK made this more salient, but I come from a relatively advantaged background. My parents both were qualified as lawyers and I was able to see throughout my education and then coming to the US how various factors that I received from my upbringing made it easier for me to basically exist and take up space in these elite places. And so part of the process of doing the paper has been talking to a lot of people who come from different backgrounds, who are in academia to try and ask them what their experiences are about, whether the progression has been affected by that class background. And we’re actually about to run a survey on this as well.

Soumaya Keynes
That’s super interesting. What kinds of things have you been hearing?

Anna Stansbury
So one of the big factors is this sense of ease. Ease is a word that is, you know, often used by sociologists when they’re talking about what does an elite education give you? And I think it’s a really good word for this circumstance, because to have a career, a successful career in academia, but also in lots of other industries, you need basically to seek out mentors who are elite people in their own field and get advice and sponsorship from them. You need to be able to network effectively in specific kinds of spaces that you may not be used to being in. This relationship building, this seeking out of advice and mentorship, I think can be much easier for people that have been raised in environments where they’ve been doing this kind of thing from an early age in gauging in more elite spaces from an early age. That’s something we’ve heard a lot.

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Soumaya Keynes
Can I ask about the idea that this look at academia is relevant for the broader economy? Because I suppose in one sense you have this incredible data, you’re able to look at outcomes quite precisely. And so, you know, that looks like, Oh, this is a really good test! But in another sense, actually, within academia, there’s huge amounts of subjectivity on what is good research. So many places for implicit bias to creep in. So isn’t it possible that really academia is some kind of upper bound for the effects of class on your outcomes? It could be an area that’s really, really vulnerable to those kinds of biases.

Anna Stansbury
Yeah. So this is one of the other things that we’ve heard from talking to people and thinking about how it works in academia is these judgments that enable you to get the prestigious grant, get your paper published in a great journal, get tenure at a top institution. These judgments are based, obviously, they’re trying to be based on your research, but they’re inherently subjective because someone’s trying to see not just if you produce decent research, but if you are brilliant. If you have that touch of, you know, spark that makes you the academic genius that people want to have and promote and see. Those kinds of judgments are hugely subject to bias. And I think there’s a lot of extent to which the way you speak, the way you dress, the way you act, those kinds of things that can be affected by your social class background can be used by people subconsciously or consciously as markers of genius or brilliance rather than what they are, which is just markers of, you know, where you went to school and how you were brought up. So I think in academia, this is probably one of the other mechanisms by which we’re seeing this glass ceiling, this class gap emerge.

You said, is academia an upper bound? Now, I don’t know because I think academia does have this space for these value judgments, these subjective judgments to be made. But we do have very, very detailed, transparent, quite objective measures of research, quantity and quality as well. You can see, you know, you can read people’s papers, you can see what journals they’ve been published in, how many citations they have and all this kind of stuff. Compare that to something like professional services or law, where you’re working in teams, you might have less objective measures of one individual specific outputs. And these are settings where being able to do all this kind of social networking, form relationships with elite people is probably even more important than it is in academia, because you’ve got to impress elite clients if you’re a lawyer or a consultant or something like that, as well as the partners at your firm. So my sense is I would guess that academia is, if anything, maybe a lower bound on these effects relative to some other professions. Ideally, we would be able to have this data and so we wouldn’t have to guess.

Soumaya Keynes
Amen. Economists call for more data. That’s the first time that’s ever happened.

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Anna Stansbury
Sorry to be a stereotype.

Soumaya Keynes
It’s OK. We’re all there. OK, but now I want to ask about the, so what? I mean, what do you think should be done as a result of these findings?

Anna Stansbury
So it’s quite a boring answer. But I think some of the most obvious concrete policy changes are incorporate social class background in the diversity initiatives that we already had for race and gender. It’s not rocket science to do things like track your applicant pool, your pool of employees or PhD students and how well they do to have mentorship initiatives that also incorporate someone coming from a less-advantaged family background, as well as incorporating someone who’s a minority gender or minority racial group. There are a lot of things that we know work relatively well. Don’t do everything. They’re not silver bullets, but work relatively well to advance sort of people from less advantaged groups in careers like academia that are just not really being done for class backgrounds. So there’s a lot of low-hanging fruit.

Soumaya Keynes
Do you see any movement in this space? Are there any people doing this kind of thing?

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Anna Stansbury
Yeah, there’s some going on. So in academia specifically, some of the professional associations now have, you know, groups and committees set up for first-gen college grads, people from low-income backgrounds in the same way that they have committees for women or minority racial groups. I’m doing some work to look at other private sector firms. I knew very, very few private companies currently collect data on report on or target class background in their DEI report. So all the big companies have DEI reports where they’re tracking gender and race. Very, very few track class. But over the last few years, the number that tracks class has gone from basically zero to, you know, few, but not zero. And so I think there are companies that are now trying to incorporate this into their hiring, into their diversity practices. So there’s change, but we’re still on the early end of it, I think.

Soumaya Keynes
Yeah. One of the things I was actually quite impressed by when I moved to the FT, was that I was asked about this kind of information, so . . . 

Anna Stansbury
Well, I should say in the UK, companies have been more proactive about this. In the UK there’s been more action over the last 10 years or so for companies to track this and monitor this and do more about it in diversity.

Soumaya Keynes
Just thinking about one final comparison. Do you have a hunch of whether this class gap would be higher in the US or in the UK?

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Anna Stansbury
My initial guess would be higher in the UK because class is more directly visible. So all the mechanisms we’ve been talking about. About, you know, is someone perceived to have the polish or the brilliance required to do this job will get the opportunity. That stuff is all magnified, I think. And there’s a great book by two sociologists, Dan Morrison and Sam Friedman called The Class Ceiling, which looks at the UK and UK occupations, which I highly recommend to read for any listener. But the one caveat I would say is that in the US, inequality on basically all dimensions is higher, income inequality, even within professions, the inequality of really status of being, you know, a manager at a really, really super big, super successful company versus a medium-sized company or being tenure track at a top institution versus a middling institution. All of those gaps are magnified. And so having a small advantage in the US might actually translate to a bigger disparity later on relative to the UK.

Soumaya Keynes
OK. Something to think about Americans. Take it away. Ponder. And that is where we will finish this week. Anna, thank you so much for joining me.

Anna Stansbury
Thank you so much. It was great to talk to you.

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Soumaya Keynes
That is all for this week. You have been listening to The Economics Show with Soumaya Keynes. If you enjoyed the show, I would love it if you could rate and review us wherever you listen.

This episode was produced by Edith Rousselot with original music from Breen Turner. It is edited by Bryant Urstadt. Our executive producer is Manuela Saragosa. Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio, I’m Soumaya Keynes, thanks for listening.

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves ‘to ABANDON’ controversial pension tax raid in relief for hardworking teachers & nurses

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves 'to ABANDON' controversial pension tax raid in relief for hardworking teachers & nurses

LABOUR’s pension tax raid is set the ditched after warnings it would hammer up to a million teachers, nurses, and public sector workers.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves had planned to raise funds by reducing tax relief on those earning £50,000 or more per year.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves

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Chancellor Rachel ReevesCredit: Getty

But Treasury officials reportedly told her any move to cut the 40 per cent tax relief on pensions would unfairly punish state employees on modest incomes, like a nurse earning £50,000 who could face an extra tax bill of £1,000 a year.

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One Government insider blasted the idea as “madness,” especially after public sector workers just received a pay rise.

Former Pensions Minister Steve Webb told The Times: “I don’t think this is something that Reeves will want to do, not least because it will infuriate public sector unions just weeks after the government agreed pay settlements with them.”

Union leaders are also understood to have cautioned the Treasury against moving forward with the proposal.

Chair of the British Medical Association pensions committee Vishal Sharma said: “Attacking our pensions in this way would completely reverse this progress by once again taking money away from doctors in a different way.

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What was Labour’s pension tax raid?

CHANCELLOR Rachel Reeves was considering reducing pensions tax relief for those earning £50,000 or more annually.

Currently, people receive tax relief based on their income tax rate.

This means basic-rate taxpayers get 20 per cent relief, higher-rate taxpayers get 40 per cent, and additional-rate taxpayers get 45 per cent.

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Under the proposed change, high earners would have seen their tax relief reduced to a flat rate, likely lower than 40 per cent or 45 per cent.

But the reduction in tax relief would have meant that higher earners might contribute less to their pensions, as the incentive to save more would be diminished.

“‘Not only would this negate the recent hard-won pay rises but it would likely reignite the recent pay disputes that have been seen across the NHS.”

The plan has been compared to Labour’s earlier disaster of a proposal to bring back a lifetime cap on pension savings, which was ditched during the election campaign after backlash over its impact on junior doctors.

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With Labour still desperate to plug a £22 billion hole in the public finances, Treasury officials are now hunting for other ways to rake in cash.

The Government has repeatedly cautioned the Budget on October 30 will involve “difficult decisions” on tax and spending.

A range of options for generating tax revenue have been touted, including increasing capital gains tax.

CGT is a tax on the profit made when you sell or dispose of an asset, like property or shares, for more than you paid for it.

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You only pay tax on the gain, not the total amount received from the sale.

There may also be a temptation to make changes to inheritance tax to target the most wealthy.

Predictions for the Autumn Statement

The Sun’s Head of Consumer Tara Evans reveals the top predictions for the Autumn Statement:

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Winter Fuel Payments

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has already announced that Winter Fuel Payments will be limited to those receiving pension credit and certain benefits. The benefit is worth up to £300 per year and currently is available to everyone over state pension age and those on certain benefits.

No rises to some taxes

Keir Starmer promised there would be no rises to National Insurance, Income Tax, Corporation Tax or VAT as part of Labour’s manifesto in the election race.

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Inheritance Tax

It has been predicted that the Chancellor Racheal Reeves will make changes to inheritance tax rates or thresholds. One suggestion is the potential shortening of the gift period before death for tax exemptions.

Pensions

Pensions featured very high up in the King’s Speech, was this a hint at how high on the agenda it will feature in the budget? Experts say there are a number of options, including reintroducing the lifetime allowance cap. Ms Reeves has previously campaigned to reduce the tax relief that higher earners get on their pensions and to  introduce a flat rate of 33% instead. Another possible option is changing the rules around pensions and inheritance tax.

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Capital Gains Tax (CGT)

There is speculation that the £3,000 tax-free allowance could be scrapped or there may be an extension of CGT to other assets.

Business Rates

There are rumours of reforms to support small businesses, possibly basing rates on land value.

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Fuel Duty

Possible rise in fuel duty, reversing the freeze since 2011 and impacting household costs. The Sun has backed drivers as part of its Keep It Down campaign since the start of 2011.

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Southern Water seeks to borrow nearly £4bn from investors

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Southern Water, the heavily indebted utility controlled by Macquarie, has turned to investors for nearly £4bn in borrowings over the next five years at a time when water companies are under increasing pressure in debt markets because of the crisis at Thames Water.

Thames Water, which itself was formerly owned by Macquarie, was last week downgraded to the lowest reaches of junk because of its dwindling cash position, increasing further scrutiny on other utilities in the sector with strained finances.

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While Southern is not in the same degree of financial peril as Thames Water, its investment-grade rating and its debt covenants have both come under pressure as the group’s total debts have exceeded £6bn, according to its most recent group accounts. Of that total, liabilities related to derivatives have ballooned past £1bn.

The yield on Southern’s short-dated bonds, due in 2026, has more than doubled over the past six months to reach 13.5 per cent, as investors now require a hefty premium to hold debt that would usually offer far smaller returns due to its near maturity.

The water monopoly, which serves 4.7mn customers in the south-east of England, met bond investors in recent days to update them on its credit situation and business plan.

A Southern Water company employee repairing a road surface
Southern Water staff in Hampshire. The company’s investor presentation shows it is asking Ofwat to allow it to raise customers’ annual water bills to £734 by the end of the next regulatory period © UCG/Getty Images

In a presentation to debt investors published on its website, it revealed it planned to raise £3.8bn of debt over the next five years, telling them it had a “proven track record of capital raising”, having raised £550mn of fresh equity from Macquarie in the last financial year.

The utility also needs to raise £650mn in equity as pressures mount on its credit ratings and operating business, which is struggling with sewage pollution and potential water shortages.

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The investor presentation comes after Moody’s in July put Southern’s credit rating on review for downgrade, putting it at risk of losing its investment-grade status with one of the major agencies.

Despite Macquarie having already injected hundreds of millions of pounds, “there is no certainty that it would make further contributions if the final determination makes continued low returns likely”, Moody’s said.

Southern’s chief financial officer Stuart Ledger said at the time of the downgrade that the utility had “an excellent liquidity position”.

However, in August 2023, the company’s lenders had to waive a loan covenant breach after its credit ratings and its interest coverage ratio, a measure of a company’s ability to pay its debt, fell below key thresholds.

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Lenders agreed to waive these conditions until 2035, meaning Southern can continue to draw down all of its available borrowing facilities and raise new financing, while also allowing the utility to increase the limit on its gearing — a critical measure of debt-to-equity — from 74 to 75 per cent.

Within Southern’s complex structure, the regulated operating company, a “ringfenced” group that is supposed to be protected from stress at the holding companies above, is nevertheless running with gearing of about 70 per cent.

Diagram show Southern Water’s overall debt structure

While lower than Thames Water’s gearing of about 80 per cent, the £4.7bn debt pile at Southern’s operating company, which makes up the group’s reported debt-to-equity ratio, leaves out almost £1.2bn of liabilities relating to its inflation-linked swaps.

These are not reported in the utility’s regulatory numbers, but if included, they would take the company’s gearing level to more than 85 per cent. Were the company’s creditors to demand a payment acceleration upon a default, Southern Water’s inflation-linked swaps would rank ahead of principal and interest on its senior debt.

The presentation also shows that Southern is asking water regulator Ofwat to allow it to increase the average annual household water bill to £734 by the end of the next regulatory period, higher than Thames Water and three other water companies cited as comparisons.

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Thames Water, which saw investors backtrack on a commitment to provide £500mn of equity in March, became the first regulated water utility to lose its investment-grade rating when both Moody’s and S&P cut its credit rating.

While an equity injection at Southern Water from Macquarie could ease pressure on its operating company, its holding company also has £300mn of debt maturing next year. Representatives of Macquarie told investors at the meeting that it might need to negotiate an extension on this debt, according to one person who attended.

Thames Water’s holding company Kemble, which itself was established by Macquarie during its 2006 buyout of London’s water company, defaulted on its own debt in April, after its present shareholders backtracked on a pledge to put in fresh equity into the business.

Southern Water said the group had strong liquidity and was working towards a positive regulatory settlement. Macquarie declined to comment.

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Southern Water’s finances under scrutiny

July 2021

Southern Water fined a record £90mn for dumping untreated sewage into the sea

august 2021

Macquarie takes over Southern Water in a deal agreed with regulator Ofwat

July 2023

Southern Water suspends dividend payments until at least 2025 as Fitch downgrades its debt to triple B

August 2023

Lenders agree to waive Southern’s covenants

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October 2023

Macquarie injects £550mn in equity into Southern Water

July 2024

Moody’s puts Southern’s credit rating on review for downgrade

september 2024

S&P and Moody’s downgrade Thames Water’s credit rating

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Dynamic Planner announces CRM integration with Adviser Cloud

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Dynamic Planner announces CRM integration with Adviser Cloud

Dynamic Planner has announced a new CRM integration with Adviser Cloud.

Financial advisers who use the new integration will be able to “seamlessly transfer client records easily, efficiently and securely” between Dynamic Planner and Adviser Cloud.

Data is passed between the systems, with Adviser Cloud validating all data, removing the need for rekeying, which minimises manual errors and saves time.

Dynamic Planner chief revenue officer Yasmina Siadatan said: “The Dynamic Planner ecosystem is continuously expanding and today we are pleased to announce another two-way integration, this time with Adviser Cloud. This will be a game changer for anyone using Adviser Cloud and Dynamic Planner, providing a seamless user experience.

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“As the latest in our growing suite of strategic partners, this new CRM integration with Adviser Cloud will continue to transform the processes of financial planning firms and drive significant efficiencies.  Integrations are fundamental for our clients and we are committed to our long-term strategy of continuously enhancing the flow of information to and from Dynamic Planner as the system of record.”

Adviser Cloud tech lead Ewan Humphreys added: “Our integration with Dynamic Planner is designed to make financial planning simpler and more efficient. Adviser Cloud has always focused on providing intuitive, user-friendly software for financial advisers, and this integration continues that mission by eliminating data rekeying and enhancing workflows. This partnership enables advisers to deliver even better client experiences while saving time and reducing operational costs.”

Adviser Cloud specialises in intuitive and easy-to-use software for IFAs, designed to reduce costs, increase efficiency, and deliver an exceptional client experience.

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the missing US campaign slogan

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The writer is chair of Rockefeller International. His latest book is ‘What Went Wrong With Capitalism 

Economic populism is a body of ideas, often random and irrational, crafted to win over frustrated voters. It tends to be good politics, bad economics, and it’s having a moment in the spotlight. As US presidential candidate Kamala Harris vows to subsidise home buyers and punish price gougers, her rival Donald Trump offers universal tariffs and “no taxes on tips”. Such slogans poll well but are likely to backfire if implemented, raising this question: are there populist ideas that can lift the economy and still win votes?

Here’s one missing in the campaign so far, that fits nicely on a bumper sticker: No More Bailouts! Doling out dollars by the hundreds of billions in 2008, and trillions in 2020, state rescues have helped incumbent companies, undermining competition and productivity. Bailouts are the new trickledown economics, claiming that everyone gains from benefits for the rich and powerful, but in the end only fuelling a sense that the system is failing and unfair. 

The US government has developed a suite of bad habits in recent decades, including more state spending in good times and bad covered by more borrowing, thus almost quadrupling US public debts as a share of GDP. Stopping this snowball would, however, require capping Social Security and Medicare — middle-class entitlements that are so popular neither party dares touch them.

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Bailouts, in contrast, are generally unpopular, and capping them would at least moderate the escalating crippling debts and related dysfunction. These rescues are slowing productivity growth by supporting corporate deadwood, clogging the system with barriers that prevent newer companies challenging the entrenched.

In 2008, the authorities injected taxpayer money into giant banks while letting community banks fail by the dozens. The public reacted angrily, compelling Congress to rule out that type of rescue. Then the pandemic hit, and authorities found new ways to pump money into financial markets, and into banks and corporations whether large or small, distressed or not.

In 2023, the economy was in recovery, yet losses at two smallish banks (Silicon Valley and Signature) triggered new bailouts, justified by fear that letting depositors suffer could cause “another 2008” — a systemic meltdown. Every bailout deepens the faith of investors that government will always be there to backstop their bets, which inspires them to take more risk, making the system more fragile — and for authorities, justifying ever bigger, quicker bailouts.

Disrupting this doom loop requires resetting expectations of state relief before the next crisis hits. Companies need to know that losses will not be covered by the state, so their risk-taking becomes more rational. This is not as radical as it may sound, since modern bailout culture is so new.

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In its first 200 years, the US organised relief for banks and corporations only twice, in crises of the 1790s and the 1930s. The next bailouts were delivered amid the shocks of the 1970s, for select companies such as Penn Central and Chrysler, over fierce resistance. Critics asked why a democracy would single out a few big corporations for help.

The first bailout of a major bank, Continental Illinois, came in 1984. Later that decade came the first industry bailout, in the Savings and Loan crisis, and the first pledge of official support for financial markets — from Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan. By 2008, relief spending reached its no-limit maximalism.

The time to slow this momentum is now, before it does more damage. Since bailouts have undermined the dynamism of the economy, they should be doled out less frequently and tilted towards small enterprises, the main engines of job creation. Authorities do need to stabilise markets in distress, but with a sense of balance.

Increasingly, bailouts are indiscriminate, nurturing “zombie” companies. Authorities would do well to recall Walter Bagehot, the father of central banking, who argued that aid should be used to help solvent businesses endure passing storms, not to keep failing ones alive indefinitely.

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Fearful of the fragility they have created, governments now vow to err on the side of spending too much, to prevent a depression. The result in 2020 was way too much relief for too long, driving up inflation, debts and risk in the economy. The size of bailouts should be based on need, not deliberate excess.

The alternative: increasingly financialised capitalism that favours the established, leaving angry voters vulnerable to cynical populism. The answer is practical populism, starting with a call to contain the bailout state.

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Six month warning to nearly half a million people claiming tax credits who risk losing cash

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DWP issues PIP update to help clear huge payment review backlog

NEARLY half a million people claiming tax credits have been given a six-month warning to ensure they continue to receive benefits.

The warning comes as the government continues to transition all two million claimants on legacy benefits to Universal Credit by the end of March 2025.

The Department for Work and Pensions has issued a six-month warning to those claiming tac credits

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The Department for Work and Pensions has issued a six-month warning to those claiming tac creditsCredit: Alamy

Recipients of tax credits do not need to take action until they receive a migration notice letter from the Department for Work and Pensions.

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But, once received it’s important to act quickly to avoid having benefit payments cut off.

Legacy benefits – such as Tax Credits, Housing Benefit, Income Support, Jobseeker’s Allowance and Income-Related Employment and Support Allowance – are all being phased out.

All claimants will be moved to Universal Credit in a process known as ‘managed migration’.

Once claimants have received a letter they will have three months to migrate to Universal Credit.

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Sir Stephen Timms, Minister for Social Security and Disability at the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), said: “I can testify just how busy life can become in just a short space of time.

“But it is important to plan ahead. I wish to stress this especially if you are in receipt of legacy benefits and thinking about your financial future.

“In April 2025, tax credits will close, which means for thousands of people their old benefits will no longer be paid. Notices are being sent out to help transfer people to Universal Credit and I strongly urge you to respond to your letter when you receive one.

“If you do not, your entitlement will end. You may also lose out on financial protection if you do not respond. The majority of those moving onto Universal Credit will not be worse off than what they claimed previously. There are numerous protections in place, including, if necessary, direct payments to top up your entitlement to what you received previously.

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“Not responding to your notice may mean these protections are not in place.”

How does work affect Universal Credit?

The transition to Universal Credit is not automatic so it’s crucial for households to apply for the benefit within three months of receiving their migration notice.

Timms added: “Once you receive your migration notice, regardless of which old benefit you claim, do not delay in responding. The process is quick and easy which will make sure your future benefit entitlement is secured.”

Since July 2022, the DWP has sent nearly 1.14million migration notices.

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However, according to the DWP’s latest figures, 284,660 individuals lost their benefits after failing to act on migration notices received between July 2022 and June 2024.

Some 623,310 individuals have since made successful claims for Universal Credit, and another 232,830 are still in the process of transitioning.

The Sun previously revealed that around 171,750 households receiving tax credits, who were sent migration notices between November 2022 and December 2023, have had their benefits stopped.

That’s according to figures from the DWP, provided to anti-poverty charity Z2K via a freedom of information request.

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Experts have previously warned that managed migration poses a risk to vulnerable people who face losing money.

Top bosses at charities, including Mind, The Trussell Trust, Turn2Us and the Money and Mental Health Policy Institute, said in 2022 that around 700,000 with mental health problems, learning disabilities, and dementia could struggle to engage with the process.

More than 20 organisations have called on the government to halt managed migration to fix flaws in the system that could cause those at risk to fall through.

MANAGED MIGRATION PROGRESS

In January, the government announced the number of migration notices it plans to send out in the coming financial year.

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Before this date, the focus was sending migration notices to households claiming tax credits only.

However, 110,000 income support claimants and a further 120,000 claiming tax credits with housing benefit started receiving their letters in April.

Over 100,000 housing benefit-only claimants were contacted in June.

More than 90,000 people claiming employment and support allowance (ESA) along with child tax credits started being asked to switch in July.

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Meanwhile, 20,000 claimants on jobseekers allowance (JSA) will be contacted from September.

The Sun previously reported that, in August, those claiming tax credits who are over state pension age will be asked to apply for either Universal Credit or pension credit.

It was initially planned that those claiming income-related ESA alone would not be moved until 2028.

However, the DWP brought forward plans to move these households to Universal Credit by the end of 2025.

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Since September 2024, 800,000 households have begun receiving letters explaining how to move from ESA to Universal Credit.

HELP CLAIMING UNIVERSAL CREDIT

As well as benefit calculators, anyone moving from tax credits to Universal Credit can find help in a number of ways.

You can visit your local Jobcentre by searching at find-your-nearest-jobcentre.dwp.gov.uk/.

There’s also a free service called Help to Claim from Citizen’s Advice:

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  • England: 0800 144 8 444
  • Scotland: 0800 023 2581
  • Wales: 08000 241 220

You can also get help online from advisers at citizensadvice.org.uk/about-us/contact-us/contact-us/help-to-claim/.

Will I be better off on Universal Credit?

AROUND 1.4million people on legacy benefits will be better off after switching to Universal Credit, according to the government.

A further 300,000 would see no change in payments, while around 900,000 will be worse off under Universal Credit.

Of these, around 600,000 are expected to get top-up payments if they move under managed migration, so they don’t lose out on cash immediately.

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The majority of those – around 400,000 – are claiming employment support allowance (ESA).

Around 100,000 are on tax credits while fewer than 50,000 each on other legacy benefits are expected to be affected.

Examples of those who may be entitled to less on Universal Credit according to the government include:

  • Households getting ESA who and the severe disability premium and enhanced disability premium
  • Households with the lower disabled child addition on legacy benefits
  • Self-employed households who are subject to the Minimum Income Floor after the 12 month grace period has ended
  • In-work households that worked a specific number of hours (e.g. lone parent working 16 hours claiming working tax credits
  • Households receiving tax credits with savings of more than £6,000 (and up to £16,000)

But if they don’t switch in the future, they’ll risk missing out on any future increase to benefits and see payments frozen.

Those who move voluntarily and are worse off won’t get these top-up payments and could lose cash.

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Those who miss the deadline and later make a claim may also not get this transitional protection either.

The clock starts ticking on the three-month countdown from the date of the first letter, and reminders are sent via post and text message.

There is a one-month grace period after this, during which any claim to Universal Credit is backdated, and transitional protection can still be awarded.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

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House prices close to record high, says Halifax

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House prices close to record high, says Halifax

The average UK house price came close to reaching a record high last month as falling mortgage rates helped to boost confidence among buyers, according to Halifax.

The UK’s largest mortgage lender said the average price hit £293,399 in September, just short of the record £293,507 reached in June 2022.

Prices have now risen for three months in a row, Halifax said, as market conditions improve.

“Mortgage affordability has been easing thanks to strong wage growth and falling interest rates,” said Amanda Bryden, head of mortgages at Halifax.

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“This has boosted confidence among potential buyers, with the number of mortgages agreed up over 40% in the last year and now at their highest level since July 2022.”

Compared with a year ago, Halifax said house prices were up 4.7% – the fastest pace of growth since November 2022.

Northern Ireland continues to see the strongest annual house price growth for any nation or region in the UK.

Guy Gittins, chief executive of Foxtons, told the BBC’s Today programme: “The market is recovering.

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“It certainly won’t be the best year we’ve ever seen but each time we see a small interest rate drop, more buyers are returning from that backlog of last year.”

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