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Why the OBR’s QT assumptions could be worth £15.5bn to Rachel Reeves

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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today announced it will keep its quantitative tightening envelope at £100bn.

As a result, over the coming year Asset Purchase Facility reduction will consist of £87bn of bonds maturing and rolling off, and £13bn of active sales. From the summary:

The MPC also reaffirmed that there would be a high bar for amending the planned reduction in the stock of purchased gilts outside a scheduled annual review. That was in order to remain consistent with the principles that Bank Rate should be the active policy tool when adjusting the stance of monetary policy, and that APF reduction should be predictable.

This is what was expected (albeit not universally) so isn’t a huge shock. However, because the UK is a silly country, it might matter hugely.

Here are two things.

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First, from Szu Ping Chan, a former colleague of the author, at the Telegraph:

Rachel Reeves has been handed a boost of up to £10bn ahead of the Budget after the Bank of England said it was slowing down sales of government bonds amassed during lockdown.

Second, from Tom Rees, a former colleague of the author, at Bloomberg:

[T]he BOE sticking to a £100 billion run-off for a third year means the OBR could adopt a new assumption that this pace continues going forward. Bloomberg Economics calculates that this would reduce the chancellor’s already thin headroom by a further £5.5 billion.

So, £15.5bn of fiscal headroom swing — money that can be spent on things like hospitals for sickly orphans, or hospitality tickets for Keir Starmer to go see Arsenal play — hinges on assumptions made by the OBR.

Two key points that you probably all know by now:

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— QT is bad for the government because QT makes the BoE lose money, and the Treasury has to indemnify those losses.
— The UK’s fiscal rules dictate that public debt must be falling at the end of the five years following a fiscal event, meaning it is straitjacketed by projections made by the OBR, the government’s fiscal watchdog.

And time to tap the sign so we’re all on the same page:

Let’s quickly unpack how we got here. The Bank of England launched its active quantitative tightening process in autumn 2022. In the ensuing year, it reduced the APF by £100bn, comprising about £39bn in maturing bonds rolling off, £42bn in active gilt sales, and £19bn in corporate bond sales (thanks for Pantheon Macroeconomics’s Elliott Jordan-Doak for helping us pull these numbers):

In the programme’s second year (which is now coming to an end), it is reducing the APF by £100bn, comprising £46bn in maturing bonds rolling off, and, by implication, £54bn in active gilt sales:

That the Bank of England’s target for the current year is £100bn has been known since last September.

Armed with these pieces of information, the OBR (the decisions of which are material because they determine the amount of headroom available under the fiscal rules) had to make a call ahead of its March economic and fiscal outlook: which was more likely — that the BoE would continue to aim for £100bn of reduction per year; or that the BoE was agnostic to the pace of passive roll-off and instead would aim to keep a consistent level of active sales?

It chose the latter, determining — by a simple average of the first two years’ outcomes — that the BoE would decide to undertake £48bn of active sales in QT’s third year, taking the overall envelope to £135bn (£87bn passive + £48bn active).

With the benefit of hindsight the continuation of a £100bn per year pace of reduction seems obvious. But there were credible arguments for both scenarios (when the BoE set out the £100bn envelope for year two, minutes note “the Committee placed some weight on continuity in the pace of sales”), and the sellside has been full of murmurs all year about which way the MPC would decide to go. We don’t really blame the OBR for choosing the one they did, but we must live with the consequences.

However, it has also long been known that the third year of QT would be a weird one: that’s because an unusually large number of gilts held in the APF are due to mature — the £87bn we referred to earlier.

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So we face a major slowdown in active sales in the coming QT year. What are the consequences?

Well, that’s up to the OBR.

Quickly, it’s worth another reminder of why the UK’s fiscal rules suck: things only matter on a rolling five-year horizon, meaning present decision-making is constantly hostage to assumptions and extrapolations across a half-decade timespan. And this is a perfect example of the OBR making big assumptions about a big area.

As far as we can see, there are three obvious paths:

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Option 1) The OBR sticks to its previous methodology, and when estimating the future pace of sales averages the first three years (£42bn, £54bn, and £13bn). That would give it a figure of £36.3bn in active sales per year, a kind of middle way:

Option 2) The OBR assumes £13bn of active sales is the pace going forward. This is the rather, dare we say, optimistic estimate deployed by Goldman Sachs in a June note that is the basis for the Telegraph’s piece — and the ideal one for Chancellor Rachel Reeves:

As Goldman wrote then:

We estimate that if the OBR were to instead assume a £13bn pace of active sales going forward, then that drag would reduce by around £10bn. We think the next government would likely use the additional fiscal space to slow the pace of fiscal consolidation.

Option 3) The OBR takes the EXTREMELY STRONG HINT from three consecutive years of this being the policy that the BoE will continue to target £100bn of overall reduction, and therefore vary its active sales over the coming years to meet that target:

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This would also seem to be the most bearish outcome possible in terms of the implications for the public finances. As Bloomberg Intelligence’s Dan Hanson, who created the assumption used in Bloomberg News’ piece, wrote earlier this month:

[If] the OBR decides to adopt that assumption going forward, it would reduce the already limited headroom by £5.5 billion.

Now, there’s a good chance that this will all become irrelevant, if Reeves takes the advice of those such as our learnèd MainFT colleague Chris Giles and changes the measure of debt the government targets to exclude QT losses. As he wrote last month:

It goes without saying that the UK should not set fiscal policy based on the OBR’s forecast on QT five years into the future.

We agree! And it’s even worse if said forecasts are based so heavily on total guesswork by the OBR, and even worse given it’s based on assumptions of the scale of policy that might suddenly stop when the BoE reaches its preferred minimum range of reserves (or before).

So let’s hope for a change, lest the OBR goes big and the Emirates soon finds itself down Ødegaard and Starmer.

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Further reading:
Does the Bank of England have a plumbing problem? (FTAV)

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GSK hails progress for withdrawn blood cancer drug

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GSK hailed progress for its withdrawn blood cancer drug Blenrep on Thursday, raising the prospect of the treatment returning to market after the drugmaker announced positive trial results.

Blenrep was approved in 2020 in the US as single treatment, but it was later withdrawn in 2022 after failing to beat other treatments in a confirmatory trial to treat a rare kind of blood cancer known as relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. The drugmaker has since launched new trials to bring it back to market, combining it with other treatments.

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GSK said it had seen “statistically significant and clinically meaningful” trial results for Blenrep, when used with another established treatment called BorDex to treat relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma — a blood cancer that returns or does not respond to treatment.

Blenrep in combination with BorDex significantly reduced the risk of death in a head-to-head trial with a standard treatment for the disease. Full data will be presented at a US haematology conference in December.

In February, the company said Blenrep and BorDex nearly tripled the length of time a patient lives without their cancer advancing, compared with the standard treatment.

GSK has filed for regulatory approvals across the world and the results will support those applications, with decisions due next year. If approved, the company expects peak sales of Blenrep of more than £3bn.

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Shares in the UK drugmaker dipped 0.6 per cent in early trading in London.

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Lidl Christmas Freeway Truck TRACKER: Free gifts and £100 shopping ‘Golden Tickets’ up for grabs as UK tour begins

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Lidl Christmas Freeway Truck TRACKER: Free gifts and £100 shopping 'Golden Tickets' up for grabs as UK tour begins

The full route

The tour kicks off today in Dundee’s Slessor Gardens, followed by stops in Harrogate on Saturday and Hull on Sunday.

Lidl’s Christmas Freeway Truck hits the road!

Lidl’s Christmas Freeway truck is bringing festive cheer to towns and cities across the UK for the first time ever! From November 14th until December 1st, this mobile celebration will stop at nine locations, offering free gifts, food tastings, and plenty of holiday fun.

At each stop, the first 250 visitors will receive a special box filled with Middle of Lidl goodies. Plus, 1 in 10 boxes will contain a ‘Golden Ticket’ worth £100 towards your Lidl Christmas shop!

Visitors can also sample holiday treats like panettone, snowmallows, and alcohol-free mulled wine, and enjoy the Magical Wish-mas Booth to share their Christmas wishes.

Credit: Lidl

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Ryanair to launch new Spain flights from tiny UK airport next summer

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Teesside International Airport, an award-winning airport in North East England, will get new Ryanair flights to Malaga next year

RYANAIR is launching a new route between Teesside and Malaga, with flights to start operating in March.

Earlier this year, Tees Valley Mayor, Ben Houchen, vowed to bring new Costa del Sol flights to the tiny UK airport.

Teesside International Airport, an award-winning airport in North East England, will get new Ryanair flights to Malaga next year

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Teesside International Airport, an award-winning airport in North East England, will get new Ryanair flights to Malaga next yearCredit: Alamy
Earlier this year, Tees Valley Mayor, Ben Houchen, vowed to bring new Costa del Sol flights to the tiny UK airport

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Earlier this year, Tees Valley Mayor, Ben Houchen, vowed to bring new Costa del Sol flights to the tiny UK airportCredit: Getty

Direct services will start operating between Teesside and Malaga on March 31, 2025.

The twice-weekly service will operate every Monday and Thursday until October 23, 2025.

Monday flights will depart Malaga at 5.50am, touching down in the UK at Teesside at 8am.

Return journeys will then leave the UK airport at 8.25am, arriving in Malaga at 12.35pm local time.

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Thursday flights will operate slightly later, with services leaving Malaga at 7am and arriving in the UK at 9.10am.

The return service will then depart from Teesside at 9.35am, landing in Malaga at 1.45pm.

Sun Online Travel have found one-way fares from £68.99 per person, with tickets already on sale.

When the new flights were announced, Tees Valley Mayor, Ben Houchen, said: “The people of Teesside, Darlington and Hartlepool have been asking for more sunshine destinations, and we’ve delivered exactly that with Ryanair’s fantastic support.

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“This is a huge win for our airport and our region, but we’re not stopping here. Our goal is to keep growing, breaking records and getting more holiday flights for local people.”

A statement from the airport reads: “The announcement follows another successful summer for Ryanair at Teesside, where routes to holiday hotspots including Majorca, Faro and Corfu have seen booming demand.”

UK airport reveals new security rules for passengers

The news comes after Teesside Airport announced its pre-tax and interest profit in 12 years.

Teesside is mainly served by airlines like Ryanair and TUI with passengers already able to fly to destinations like Dalaman in Turkey, Corfu in Greece and Majorca in Spain.

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It is hoped that more flights will be introduced at the regional airport.

Teesside International Airport was named the favourite small UK airport for leisure travel by passengers at the British Travel Awards in 2023.

Last year, Teesside International Airport saw the highest number of passengers pass through its terminal for 11 years.

Meanwhile, Mayor Ben Houchen has promised to pump £20million into renovating the airport’s train station.

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Teesside Airport Station closed in May 2022, and it has yet to reopen.

Houchen told the Northern Echo: “As a serious airport we need a working rail link that passengers can use to get to the airport, and with the current state of the train station this is simply not possible.

“We are ahead of schedule on our plan to turn things around, and the next phase of development following the opening of our business park and cargo facility, will see us build a new station at the airport.”

The other small UK airport set for new flights

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RYANAIR looks set to launch three brand new flights at a small UK airport, as it already begins to cast its eyes on next summer.

In April, the budget carrier started new routes from Norwich Airport for the first time.

Passengers in Norfolk were able to book flights to Alicante in Spain, Faro in Portugal and Malta, with some routes starting from as little as £17.

Now the airline could be set to launch more new routes from the regional travel hub, according to its managing director.

Richard Pace has said that he is hoping to see at least two or three more flights added to the airport’s route map in time for summer 2025.

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In an interview with BBC Radio Norfolk, he spoke of the success of the first few months of flights from Norwich Airport and said he would know more about the future routes from next month.

At the moment, there is no indication of where the new routes will travel to, or when they will begin.

Meanwhile, Jet2 is set to open a brand-new airport base at London Luton Airport next year.

From the London-based airport, Jet2 will fly to 17 destinations, with 36 flights operating every week next summer.

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The twice-weekly service between Teesside and Malaga will launch at the end of March and will operate throughout the summer until mid-October

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The twice-weekly service between Teesside and Malaga will launch at the end of March and will operate throughout the summer until mid-OctoberCredit: Getty

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Did the vehicle market brave the climate in the festival month of October?- The Week

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Did the vehicle market brave the climate in the festival month of October?- The Week

Two-wheeler sales soared to 21.6 lakh units in October 2024, up 14 per cent from October 2023, according to official data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). Total domestic passenger vehicles dispatched to dealers by companies improved to 3.93 lakh units—its highest ever for the month—from last year’s October number of about 3.89 lakh units.

Bipeds ruled the sales in the festive month that saw Navratri, Dussehra, Diwali, and Dhanteras fervour across the country, despite massive dips in major stock-market indices due to FII selloff. “October 2024 saw two major festivals, Dussehra and Diwali, both occurring in the same month, which traditionally drive higher consumer demand, providing a significant boost to the auto industry’s performance,” said SIAM Director General Rajesh Menon.

ALSO READ | GST Collection: Which Indian states collected the most tax in the festival month of October?

Around 13.9 lakh motorcycles were dispatched to dealers in October, up 11 per cent. Scooter demand was higher, with a 22 per cent growth to 7.2 lakh units.

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According to the industry body SIAM, the sales jump was also reflected in the centralised government portal Vahan, which recorded more than 30 per cent year-on-year growth in registrations for passenger vehicles.

Earlier this week, Maruti Suzuki launched its compact sedan DZire, starting at Rs 6.79 lakh (ex-showroom) in India. It is also the first Maruti Suzuki car to ever get a 5-star Global NCAP rating.

In the first week of November, at EICMA 2024, two-wheeler brands Hero MotoCorp and Royal Enfield announced their new motorcycles. While the Bajaj-rival Hero launched the Karizma XMR 250, the Xpulse 210 and the Xtreme 250R, they were joined in Milan by Royal Enfield, who announced their foray into electric bikes.

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Fans Lose £346 on Average

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Oasis Fans Hit by Costly Ticket Scams Amid Tour Frenzy, Bank Warns

Loyal Oasis fans, eager to secure tickets for the band’s highly anticipated reunion tour, have become prime targets for scammers, with victims losing an average of £346, according to new findings from Lloyds Bank. The bank’s analysis reveals that people aged 35 to 44 are most at risk, making up nearly a third (31%) of reported cases. In some cases, fans lost as much as £1,000 as scammers exploited the surge in ticket demand.

Lloyds’ data, gathered from reports made by customers across Lloyds Bank, Halifax, and Bank of Scotland between August 27 and September 25, paints a clear picture: fake advertisements and posts on social media accounted for over 90% of the ticket scam cases, with around 70% involving Oasis fans. Scammers typically use social media to post fake listings, offering discounted or “exclusive” tickets to sold-out events. After victims make an upfront payment, the scammers disappear, leaving fans with no tickets and a financial loss.

“Fraudsters Wasting No Time Targeting Oasis Fans”

Liz Ziegler, fraud prevention director at Lloyds, said, “Predictably, fraudsters wasted no time in targeting loyal Oasis fans as they scrambled to pick up tickets for next year’s must-see reunion tour.” She emphasized the importance of purchasing tickets directly from reliable sources: “Buying directly from reputable, authorised retailers is the only way to guarantee you’re paying for a genuine ticket.”

Ziegler also warned against using bank transfers to pay unknown sellers, especially on social media platforms, saying, “If you’re asked to pay via bank transfer, particularly by a seller you’ve found on social media, that should immediately set alarm bells ringing.”

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New Fraud Reimbursement Rules Aim to Protect Consumers

The rise in scams comes as new mandatory reimbursement rules for authorised push payment (APP) fraud took effect last month. Overseen by the Payment Systems Regulator (PSR), the rules require banks to reimburse victims of fraud unless there is evidence of gross negligence by the customer. A reimbursement cap of £85,000 has been set, although banks may choose to refund higher amounts. The new protections apply to transactions made from October 7 onwards, offering an extra layer of security for victims.

Previously, a voluntary reimbursement code provided some relief for fraud victims, along with bank-specific refund guarantees. However, these new, more stringent rules mark a step forward in protecting consumers against payment fraud, helping to ensure that those tricked into transferring money to fraudsters have a better chance of recovery.

Tips for Avoiding Ticket Scams

With ticket scams spiking during high-demand events, Lloyds offers practical advice to help fans avoid falling victim:

  1. Purchase from Trusted Sources: Only buy tickets from official retailers or authorized resellers, avoiding unknown sellers on social media.
  2. Avoid Bank Transfers to Unknown Sellers: If a seller insists on a bank transfer, it’s a major red flag. Scammers prefer bank transfers because they’re hard to trace.
  3. Stay Alert as Event Dates Approach: Scammers often strike twice—first when tickets go on sale, and again as the event nears. Increased vigilance during these times can prevent potential losses.

The Oasis ticket scam surge is a reminder of the importance of secure purchasing and highlights the ongoing threat of fraud in high-demand markets. With new rules in place, fans who fall victim may now have better protection, but the best safeguard remains buying from trusted sources and staying alert to red flags in the digital marketplace.

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TSMC clamps down and CATL goes for distance

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China’s consumer sentiment and online sales*

Hello everyone. This is Cissy from Hong Kong. It’s been a hectic week for the tech industry. Asian tech giants have started to report their July-September quarterly earnings even as they absorb the shock re-election of Donald Trump as US president.

It’s also been a busy time for Asian media outlets, including us, covering what Trump’s second term will mean for trade, defence, markets and more. It appears the consensus is that first and foremost his return to the White House will bring uncertainty for the region, although there are a few voices arguing that Trump won’t take the world by surprise this time.

One of his biggest impacts will likely be on immigration. Chinese citizens, many of them middle class, who made the risky Darién Gap crossing to reach the US during the pandemic years are now worried about being deported under Trump. Parents in China, meanwhile, some of whom have even sold their property in order to send their sons and daughters to study in the US, are increasingly worried their children will not be allowed into the country.

With the Republicans clinching control of the House as well as the Senate, Trump is set to become one of the most powerful US presidents in the modern era. Let’s embrace the changes that the next four years will surely bring, whatever they might be.

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I am sure many of you are particularly interested in how Trump’s return as US president will affect the global chip industry and the tech supply chain. Please join us on November 28 for a webinar with Chris Miller, author of Chip War, Yeo Han-koo, former trade minister of South Korea, and our own chief tech correspondent Cheng Ting-Fang as we delve into this ever-changing industry. Register here and be sure to submit your questions for the panel ahead of time.

Closing the door

Trump will not be sworn in as president until January, but the world’s biggest contract chipmaker is making sure it stays on the right side of US export control rules no matter who is in the White House. Sources told Nikkei Asia’s Cheng Ting-Fang and Lauly Li that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co is suspending production of AI and high-performance computing chips for several Chinese customers.

The Chinese chip design clients that will be affected are those working on high-performance computing, GPUs and AI computing applications that use 7nm or more advanced chip production technologies. These chip developers need to obtain a licence from the US government to continue working with top chipmakers such as TSMC.

Companies making mobile, communication, and connectivity chips with the same technology won’t be impacted, and sources say the effect on TSMC’s revenue will be minimal. But the move highlights the Taiwanese chipmaker’s push to have clients shoulder more of the burden for ensuring compliance with US regulations.

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Wearable AI

A race is heating up between the major Chinese tech giants to be the leading provider of AI-integrated hardware, writes the Financial Times’ Eleanor Olcott.

Baidu, which operates China’s largest search engine, unveiled smart glasses on Tuesday, which run on its large language model (LLM) Ernie. The glasses, which will hit stores next year, have been developed by the internet company’s hardware brand Xiaodu, which has pitched them as a “private assistant” for users. It enables wearers to track calorie consumption, ask questions about their environment, play music and shoot videos.

While Washington’s chip restrictions mean Chinese companies lag behind US rivals in developing the most powerful LLMs, experts say they can still leverage the country’s world-class electronics sector to develop competitive AI consumer hardware.

Baidu’s glasses will initially only retail in China, while US tech groups Meta and Snap are competing to dominate the market outside of the country.

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A new target

China’s consumer sentiment and online sales*

China’s biggest annual shopping festival is getting longer and longer and, for many shoppers, more tedious. As domestic consumption continues to be weak, ecommerce platforms this year are ramping up efforts to tap a potentially lucrative group: the 100mn or so Chinese living overseas, writes Nikkei Asia’s Cissy Zhou.

Alibaba, which pioneered the sales campaign back in 2009, spent around $200mn filling subway stations in Hong Kong and Taiwan with ads for free shipping on orders over Rmb99 among other offers. Rivals JD.com and Pinduoduo were less aggressive in their marketing campaigns but invested big to give Hong Kong shoppers reduced prices on items and cheaper shipping.

Alibaba said the company achieved “robust” GMV (gross merchandise value) growth and a “record number” of active buyers during this year’s Singles Day. The company, along with JD, may reveal more meaningful data in their upcoming third-quarter earnings calls.

Battle of the batteries

CATL, the world’s largest supplier of electric vehicle batteries, is seeking to capture growing demand for plug-in hybrids with a new compound battery pack that promises a range of 400km, writes Nikkei’s Shizuka Tanabe.

The move comes as the battery maker faces intense competition from rival BYD, China’s leading seller of midmarket plug-in hybrids.

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BYD in May overhauled its proprietary plug-in hybrid platform to improve its range. The updated DM-i boasts a combined fuel and electric range of 2,100km. However, the automaker has focused more on improving the efficiency of its engine, and the platform’s electric range is between 80km and 120km.

Sales of plug-in hybrids are surging in China, hitting 3.33mn units between January and September, up 84 per cent from the same period last year. CATL is betting that a longer electric range will appeal to buyers looking for “the EV experience”.

Suggested reads

  1. Vietnam weighs new tech law that risks irking US under Trump (Nikkei Asia)

  2. SoftBank returns to profit as Indian IPOs boost Vision Fund gains (FT)

  3. Kakao: Can South Korea’s symbol of innovation regain its shine? (Nikkei Asia)

  4. Nintendo and Sony head into ‘grim’ holiday season with old consoles and no big releases (FT)

  5. SoftBank taps Nvidia for Japanese ‘AI grid’ project (Nikkei Asia)

  6. Indian investors lukewarm over Swiggy’s $1.3bn listing (FT)

  7. Tencent’s quarterly results fall short on weak China consumption (Nikkei Asia)

  8. Singapore’s Sea stock jumps 21% as online retail arm returns to black (Nikkei Asia)

  9. SoftBank performance strengthens credibility of its AI vision (FT)

  10. FTX sues Binance and former chief Changpeng Zhao for $1.8bn (FT)

#techAsia is co-ordinated by Nikkei Asia’s Katherine Creel in Tokyo, with assistance from the FT tech desk in London.

Sign up here at Nikkei Asia to receive #techAsia each week. The editorial team can be reached at techasia@nex.nikkei.co.jp.

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