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Why you should take more risks, with Nate Silver

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This is an audio transcript of the Working It podcast episode: ‘Why you should take more risks, with Nate Silver’

Nate Silver
If you have an opportunity to take a job where, say, you’ll double your pay, but it’s more high stress, there’s a 10 per cent chance that you’ll get fired, probably the expected value of that is positive. You know, 90 per cent of the time they’ll double your pay, 10 per cent of your time, then OK, you’re back looking for another job in a few months or something, but like probably a good bet to make.

Isabel Berwick
Hello, and welcome to Working It from the Financial Times, I’m Isabel Berwick.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

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Every professional choice you make is essentially a bet, whether you’re changing jobs, applying for a promotion or striking out on your own, you’re taking a calculated risk and just hoping it works out. But lots of us aren’t very good at thinking about risk in a measured way. We put too much weight on losing what we already have or fear of the unknown clouds our judgment. We often end up taking fewer risks than we should. Or so says today’s guest.

Nate Silver is a writer, statistician and poker player. He founded FiveThirtyEight, which uses statistics to analyse politics, economics and sport. Nate is also the author of the new book, On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything. In the book, Nate distinguishes between people living in what he calls the village, risk-averse consensus thinkers, and the river, nonconformists and calculated risk takers. So what can we risk-averse types learn from the river? I sat down with Nate to find out. Nate, hello and welcome to Working It.

Nate Silver
Hello. How are you?

Isabel Berwick
I’m great. It’s lovely to have you here. So you’ve written a whole book about risk and risk-taking. I know that that’s your whole background. You write that most of us don’t take enough risk. How does that play out in our working lives, do you think?

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Nate Silver
Yeah, that’s the context in which I mean that. I’m not saying you should go ride a motorcycle or go do, you know, some illegal drug or something like that. I think the reason why is that we are used to dealing with a world of scarcity where if you fall off your feet economically, it’s hard to recover. Or if you get infected by some disease, you just die, right? You get bitten by a tiger or something and you’re in bad shape.

And we’re now in a world, especially if you’re, you know, upper-middle class or above of abundance, where you have a lot of options, you have a lot of choices. You have, in some countries, and people debate how much, but a robust welfare state to help protect you if you have a downside outcome potentially. And so people, I think, are often too short-term-focused.

Isabel Berwick
So could you explain the concept of EV? Because it’s something you use a lot in the book. And I had sort of come across it, but it’d be great for the listeners to hear.

Nate Silver
So the notion of EV is expected value, which is what outcome do I get to expect on average if I simulate a situation infinite number of times or a hundred times, right? Now in poker, this is very straightforward. There are 52 cards in a poker deck, so you can kind of say, OK, if I raise here, how will the hand play out over these 52 possibilities?

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Now, in real life, it’s more complicated because you don’t get a do-over. But still the notion that, like, you know, if you have an opportunity to take a job where, say, you’ll double your pay, but it’s more high stress, there’s a 10 per cent chance that you’ll get fired, probably the expected value of that is positive. You know, 90 per cent of the time, they’ll double your pay, 10 per cent of your time, then OK, you’re back looking for another job in a few months or something, but like, probably a good bet to make. You can take a risk-adjusted EV calculation if you want. I don’t think it’s a terrible thing. You only have one life to live if you want to be a little bit risk-averse, then maybe that’s OK. But I think in general, people err way too much on the side of caution.

Isabel Berwick
Do we have a proper innate idea of risk or does it vary from person to person?

Nate Silver
I think we have a good innate idea about things that we do every day. I was running late to this interview, for example. So we can decide whether to take a taxi, which in principle is faster, take the Tube, which is slower but has lower variance, right? The taxi, if you get a bad driver or you run into traffic, it’s the first day of school, then that might actually be more risky.

So for things like that, people I think have pretty good instincts. It’s like the big decisions either that we as individuals or societies face where it becomes more problematic. But there aren’t many things like poker where you actually get experience taking risk and understand the value of long-run thinking.

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Isabel Berwick
That’s interesting. If you could outline a little bit about the river and the village and how people in those two groups decouple narratives, essentially in the river group, is that right?

Nate Silver
Yeah. So the village is kind of the establishment, right? In the United States, it might be Harvard University, The New York Times, the government, right? People in and around Washington, DC. And that group tends to be very risk-averse. They are the establishment. They are very consensus-driven. They don’t want to rock the boat, but they also kind of have politics on the brain all the time. So they do what I call coupling, which means that you’re looking at context. What are the credentials of the person making this remark? That matters to them a lot.

In the US where there is a lot of obsession, I’d say, over like racial, gender, et cetera, identity, you know, is this person among the right racial group to make this claim given the politics of the situation? And I argue in the book that in some ways, in some ways the village has been losing out. They become . . . You know, governments are becoming less effective. In the US, we’ve had a crisis of trust in institutions like the media.

The river conversely are people who are calculated risk takers. They think about expected value. You’ll find them on Wall Street, in Las Vegas, in Silicon Valley. And they are more individualistic and also more risk-tolerant. And they’re more kind of politically incorrect. They just want the right answer regardless of whether it offends somebody or not.

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Isabel Berwick
What are the ways we use coupled narratives essentially at work to our own disadvantage? And can we get beyond that?

Nate Silver
I think so. I mean, look, there is always, if you’re building a model, right, then the context should not be forgotten in the model. But yeah, I mean, I think in the workplace, people get labelled and they say, oh this guy is lazy or this person’s not that committed or not that capable and you wind up missing growth and changes.

You wind up also, you know, stereotyping people that you peg people based on their gender or their race or their age and things like that, and don’t give them credit for having new skills. So, yeah, look, people have good days and bad days and they’re good at some things and bad at other things. And I think looking at the work product and not the halo effect of their personality I think is worth doing.

Isabel Berwick
Yeah, we can help to remove our own biases by just thinking about the raw data or the project or the task in hand.

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Nate Silver
Yeah. So when I was interviewing for, you know, having an assistant for my newsletter, then I tried to apply some best practices where, I ask every candidate the same battery of questions. And then I go and grade their response from one to five on each question, as I’m doing it. Because I’m more like, let’s say you have somebody who is charismatic and gives you a warm introduction, right? And they answer the first question really well. It’s easier then, kind of be like, this person’s great. They’re on the finalist list, but like and I’ll mark them all the way through because sometimes I just happen to get a question that suit their preferences more. Or sometimes they’re charming and they can kind of talk their way through things but aren’t actually very substantive about it. Sometimes they’ll offer repeat answers that are politically expedient but aren’t actually good answers.

And so, like, I don’t think we need to necessarily evaluate every employee task to death. I think that can become very time consuming and reductive. But, you know, but looking at the task at hand and how well that was done and not giving person a pass or fail grade based on their track record.

Isabel Berwick
Can we formalise the way we think about risk in a workplace where people’s motivations are not clear? You know, is there a way that we can put a framework on it?

Nate Silver
Look, and this is where probably I think I’ve failed as a manager in part. If you’re the founder of a company, then you kind of assume that everyone wants the company to grow and work really hard. And yeah, some people just want like a pay cheque. Some people want the job as a stepping stone to the next thing they’re doing. Some people want the social interaction at work. Yeah. So this is a fault that I have to improve on, which is like, don’t assume that everybody’s motives are the same as yours.

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Isabel Berwick
Brilliant. So I was really interested in the optionality bit in the book. So essentially if I say it’s almost making your own luck, is that too simplistic?

Nate Silver
I think that’s exactly what it is, right? And this metaphor I use in the book, if you walk down a hallway that has more open doors, it’s more likely that one of the doors will happen to have something interesting going on. Building opportunity tends to snowball positively on itself. You meet people who introduce you to other people, you develop skills that can be replicated in the future.

I mean, I think we’re in a world now where we all have to be multitaskers, multi-faceted. You’re not just gonna have the same job for 50 years and then retire. And if you do, that job will change over the 50 years anyway.

Isabel Berwick
So you talk in the book about sometimes when you’ve lost big at poker and what you learned from that, is there any transferable thing in the workplace? Because, you know, we all have setbacks, things go wrong. Often people collapse actually, and take less risk after that. How can we get back after a loss or not getting a job or?

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Nate Silver
So the term we use in poker is not being results-oriented. I think it’s kind of being very maybe stoic and Zen-like about it when it happens to you, when in the workplace, especially if you’re in an environment where people don’t understand that as much. I think people second-guess themselves too much instead of focusing more on what is my process, what did I know at the time? And then what can I learn from that the next time around? But like, you know, the old wisdom that you shouldn’t cry over spilled milk is, I think, actually one of the more valuable heuristics for this.

Isabel Berwick
That’s very simple and very effective. And I know in the book you interview people who’ve taken big risks or physical risks or business risks. Are there any sort of quick wins that we can learn from them? Those of us who are not natural risk takers?

Nate Silver
I’m not sure there are quick ones. I do think, though, that you can actually get better at performance under pressure. In the book, for example, I talked to people like a Nasa astronaut, one of the first women to go into space. I talked to inventors and explorers, and they actually think about risk more like the financial risk takers, like poker players, than you would think. They understand if you’re like, for example, flying the space shuttle. It’s all about a few high-risk moments like entry, re-entry and a spacewalk, for example. If you do great in the routine moments, but you panic in a big moment, then OK, you’re gonna wind up not being very happy and not doing very well at your job.

Human beings have an innate capacity to understand when they face a high-stakes moment, right? Tomorrow night, I’m doing a big live event with whatever, 800 people. I’ll probably be nervous then. I probably have butterflies because, like, no matter how much you might get trained out of it, your body is saying that, look, I understand that we’re in a stressful situation here, right? Just kind of evolution. But knowing that kind of when your heart rate increases and when your, you know, physiology is a little bit different, learning how to control that and get used to that is very valuable in things you can learn, for example, by playing poker or going on stage or doing things where you’re putting yourself on the line.

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Hopefully the downside isn’t too bad. If you’re playing poker, you never risk money you can’t afford to lose. But you can learn performance under pressure. And so trusting your intuition more when you have experience. And that’s the flip side of that too, ignoring your intuition when you’re in a novel situation where you don’t have life history.

Isabel Berwick
Yeah, that’s very good advice. And as we get older, a lot of people become more risk-averse. I don’t know if that’s a natural process, but actually, I talked to Daniel Pink, he is very much of the belief that as we get older, we should take more risk. Is there an age-related component here and can we get over it?

Nate Silver
Yeah. Look, in principle, if you’re older and I’m getting older, I’m 46, then A, you have less of a chip on your shoulder and less to prove. B, hopefully you have like more of a nest egg built up and you should have more established friendships and networks and things like that.

So yeah, I think older people who take risks are doing very well. In part because like a lot of people, they reach their 40s, 50s and they slow down. If you’re still intellectually curious, but now you have more life experience and more resources, friends and finances and whatever else, then it can be a great time to be 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s and beyond. But you do have to avoid being too risk-averse.

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Isabel Berwick
Can you stay sharp at poker in your 60s, 70s and beyond?

Nate Silver
There are some good players that have had a lot of longevity. Poker is a physical game more than people realise. In part because it’s long hours. You might be playing 12 hours day after day in like the World Series of Poker, and then you go home to your room and like, it’s hard to relax sometimes. Also, you want to be physically alert. You’re actually being observant. To observe people carefully when you have a very large stake on the line is actually a lot of work.

But for sure, I mean, you know, poker is a game where the math of it doesn’t change that much. And the people skills, I think, can improve over time potentially. And so I, you know, I see more and more skilled, older poker players who are learning the theory and like actually they’ll go home and like study computer solutions like the younger kids do, but then have a life experience. Also, sometimes I can get away with bluffing a lot better, right? If you’re like an old, 70-year-old man, right, and you bluff people, like, oh this guy he’s never gonna bluff me, right? So I’ve seen some very clever older men and women who exploit the negative stereotype people have about them.

Isabel Berwick
So we could overlay risk-taking on top of what you might call crystallised wisdom of the older person, the wisdom of experience?

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Nate Silver
I think so. Look, it’s nice, when I play poker, it’s not my main job. It’s nice that look, if I lose today — because you lose most of the time in poker tournaments, only 15 per cent of players get a cash prize in any tournament — then whatever, I go when I have other things that are really interesting and engaging for me to do.

Isabel Berwick
Yeah. Has anyone ever blamed you for a bet that went wrong that they’d taken your advice?

Nate Silver
In 2016, our forecast had a 30 per cent chance of Trump winning and a 70 per cent chance of Clinton winning. If you had taken my advice, you would have bet on Trump because the bookies had Trump at six-to-one odds. If it’s really two-to-one or three-to-one, then that’s a very good bet on Trump. But people don’t think probabilistically about things like elections. And so, you know, some unhappy customers there, I’d say.

Isabel Berwick
So you talked a bit there about watching people when you play poker. When we’re at work, there are all sorts of people at work and actually people watching is a big part of the skill. What can we learn from the way that poker players watch each other? Is there something transferable to the workplace there?

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Nate Silver
Yeah, look, people are communicating consciously and unconsciously in all sorts of different ways. Particularly if you’re somebody in an asymmetric relationship, you’re somebody’s subordinate or somebody’s boss, like a lot of the communication will be non-verbal, obviously. And then there’s something that’s missed when you go, I mean, I mostly work from home now. I have just one person I manage. But, you know, but looking at body language and things like that, I think is, I think it’s important because, you know, it’s a very thick mechanism communication. It’s not just our voice. We communicate with our hand gestures and things like that.

And so poker players know not to take everything so literally, maybe especially in the US, we’re more literal than British folks are, right? So especially there, like understatement can be used very effectively and ambiguity can be used very effectively. But yeah, you have to like, you know, understand that communication in the workplace has different modalities in communication with a spouse or something, but like probably some of the same skills in terms of people reading.

Isabel Berwick
Do you think we’re going to need to be more sophisticated at this as AI takes over a lot of the routine parts of our work? Will we become more sophisticated as humans reading each other?

Nate Silver
Look, I think AI, I am not as convinced as some people of superhuman AI. I think it may actually wind up rewarding creative skills more, rewarding the kind of edge case parts of knowledge that a computer can’t synthesise very well, rewarding specialisation potentially. I mean, we’ll see. I think what large language models like ChatGPT do is very impressive. I think they’re missing a big part of the human picture.

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Isabel Berwick
I just want to talk a bit about randomness. Because there’s lots of great examples of random decision making in the book. Is there a way we can use that? It doesn’t seem very intuitive.

Nate Silver
I think people sometimes spend too much time focusing on really minor decisions. That I’ll do this too, right? You’re trying to figure out where to go to dinner or maybe you’re trying to calibrate. One friend is vegetarian and one friend is hard of hearing. But when they’re familiar with like spicy food, you’re trying to like calibrate all this stuff. Like sometimes just kind of flip a coin. Like, literally, because it’s not gonna be make or break decision when you get Thai food or Indian food or whatever else. So I’ll literally just kind of flip a coin sometimes. It will sometimes reveal that, oh actually I did feel like Indian food tonight, not Thai food after all. That was my true preference revealed by this coin flip. But the decisions where you’re indifferent is a term in poker a lot of the time. People, I think, it really hung up because it’s closed. Actually, it doesn’t matter. Just make a choice and stick to it.

Isabel Berwick
So outcomes might be different, but they’re not that different.

Nate Silver
Yeah. If the expected value — this is a technical way to put it — if the expected value is similar going in, then don’t worry a lot about it. It seems like common sense, but like, take more time with the higher-stakes decision and be more impulsive with the lower-stakes ones.

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Isabel Berwick
I love that. Nate, thank you so much for coming on the podcast.

Nate Silver
Of course. Love to be on.

[MUSIC PLAYING]

Isabel Berwick
This episode of Working It was produced by Mischa Frankl-Duval and mixed by Simon Panayi. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa, and Cheryl Brumley is the FT’s global head of audio. Thanks for listening.

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Seaside town less than one hour from major cities where you can buy a home for under £30k – and there’s no catch

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Seaside town less than one hour from major cities where you can buy a home for under £30k - and there’s no catch

PROSPECTIVE buyers may be shocked to learn about a well-connected seaside town in the UK where you can buy a home for just £35k.

House prices have been on the rise, with the average buyers forking out close to £300k to make their dreams of ownership come true.

These houses are up for grabs at a fraction of the national asking price

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These houses are up for grabs at a fraction of the national asking price

This, coupled with upcoming changes to Stamp Duty, means hopeful homeowners could end up forking out more than they had a few years ago.

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Under current rules, if a property is more expensive, buyers only pay tax at 5% on the portion above £425,000 and up to £625,000.

The lower limit for the first-time buyer stamp duty exemption was temporarily increased in 2022.

But now it is scheduled to revert to £300,000 in April 2025.

However, hope is not lost for buyers who are willing to be flexible on location.

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In the seaside town of Hartlepool, County Durham, homes can go for as cheap as £25,000, making it £275,000 less than the national average.

Meanwhile, a 55-minute train ride can take you to Newcastle city centre for just £2.20.

Take a look at the cheapest houses in this area…

Two-bed end terrace house – Hartlepool – £25,000

This house is £275,000 below the national average

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This house is £275,000 below the national average

This two-bed end terrace is up for sale in Hartlepool, County Durham for £25,000.

It has two bedrooms, one bathroom, and one reception alongside a kitchen.

The street is within walking distance to a number of schools, and a seven-minute drive to Hartlepool train station.

This home would require a bit of work to bring it up to standards but that is always worth factoring in when looking at an affordable property.

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You might be able to get a mortgage for this house with a 10% deposit of £2,500.

If you got accepted for a 25-year loan with 5% interest, you would be expected to pay back £131 per month.

Best schemes for first-time buyers

Two-bed terrace – Bishop Auckland – £29,999

This two-bed terrace would also require some work

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This two-bed terrace would also require some work

This two-bed terrace is up for sale for £29,999 in nearby Bishop Auckland, County Durham.

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This town is just an hour and 13 minutes train journey to Newcastle and a 41-minute journey to the city centre in Durham.

Again, this home would require some work to bring it up to scratch, but it is just a two-minute drive to the nearest train station – something that often adds value to a property.

You might be able to get a mortgage for this house with a 10% deposit of just £3,000.

If you got accepted for a 25-year loan with 5% interest, you would be expected to pay back £157 per month.

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Two-bed terrace – £36,000

This home is located in Cheapside, Shildon

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This home is located in Cheapside, Shildon

This two-bedroom home is priced at £36,000 and is located slightly inland from Hartlepool in nearby Shildon, County Durham.

It comes with two bedrooms, one reception, a bathroom and a kitchen.

The property is just a short four-minute drive to the nearest train station and is also just a short walk to a number of local primary schools.

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This home would require a fresh lick of paint and some money to refurbish the bedrooms and kitchens, so that is worth bearing in mind.

You might be able to get a mortgage for this house with a 10% deposit of £3,600.

If you got accepted for a 25-year loan with 5% interest, you would be expected to pay back £189 per month.

How to save for your first home

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HAVE you ever wondered how first-time buyers manage to go from savers to homeowners?

Getting a foot on the property ladder might seem like a daunting task, but The Sun’s My First Home feature allows you to find out exactly what it takes to finally get the keys to your own place.

Leanne Gem managed to buy her £456,000 four-bed house with an “underrated scheme”.

Karis Jacobs and her husband George used the 50/50 method to buy their first home just two years after losing their jobs.

Parents Chae and Cem used a “DIY Help to Buy scheme” to buy their £466,000 first home.

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Anupam and his wife Shrabanti lost £6,000 free cash when buying their first home – here’s how you can avoid it.

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Managing Climate Change

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Managing Climate Change

At the UN COP29 climate talks in Baku negotiators gear up to agree a new finance target. Plus: prospects for a carbon market framework; what Trump win means for Biden’s green bill; China’s cleantech boom; EU faces backlash; loss and damage funding

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Kerala GST body slaps taxes on Adani’s Thiruvananthapuram airport pact, goes against Rajasthan and Gujarat appellate authority rulings- The Week

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Kerala GST body slaps taxes on Adani’s Thiruvananthapuram airport pact, goes against Rajasthan and Gujarat appellate authority rulings- The Week

The Kerala bench of the GST Authority for Advance Ruling (AAR) ruled that the concessionaire agreement between the AAI (Airport Authority of India) and Adani Thiruvananthapuram International Airport Ltd is liable to GST since it is not a “transfer of business” but supply of services.

This ruling is in direct conflict with rulings passed by the Appellate Authority for Advance Ruling (AAAR) in Rajasthan and Gujarat regarding the transfers of Jaipur and Ahmedabad airports, respectively. These state bodies exempted GST on almost identical transfers.

Back in March 2023, the Rajasthan bench of AAR said that the considerations received from the transfer of running business of whole airport operations are a “tax neutral supply”, which could persuade similar transfers in other locations in India. However, the almost identical agreement between Adani’s airport arm and AAI is now treated differently.

ALSO READ | GST Collection: Which Indian states collected the most tax in the festival month of October?

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The 2021 handover of the Thiruvananthapuram airport was met with strong political opposition from both the ruling left LDF and opposing UDF alliances. However, it garnered local support in Thiruvananthapuram when social media groups, including IT professionals and residents, actively lobbied for better amenities, which, according to them, were allegedly absent in the capital city airport when compared to the PPP facilities at Cochin International Airport.

According to GST law, the transfer of a business as a going concern, as a whole or an independent part thereof, is considered a service, and such supplies are exempt from the goods and services tax. The Rajasthan AAR ruled in 2023 that the 2021 Jaipur Airport pact was a transfer of going concern and, therefore, GST exempt.

Did Thiruvananthapuram get the short end of the stick?

In 2021 and 2022, both Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh benches of AAR also ruled that business arrangements between AAI and airport proceeds in a similar manner were covered under transfer of going concern.

However, the invoice raised by AAI for reimbursement of salary and staff cost on Adani Jaipur International Airport Ltd fell under “supply of services” and hence taxable at 18% under GST, as per the Rajasthan AAR ruling.

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In contrast, the Kerala ruling for Thiruvananthapuram International Airport by the state AAR said that the deal did not constitute “a transfer of business” and, therefore, will not be treated as “a transfer as going concern”. It also noted that “assets have not been transferred”, and GST is payable on the amounts received as a consideration for leasing or supply of assets to the concessionaire, that is, Adani Thiruvananthapuram International Airport Ltd. These leased assets include critical aeronautical items required to operate the airport.

The Kerala AAR bench went even further and slapped GST on the annual concession fees charged by AAI from Thiruvananthapuram International Airport Ltd as well.

Will the Kerala GST ruling hamper the development of Thiruvananthapuram International Airport?

Last month, Adani Airport Holdings Ltd (AAHL) announced a Rs 1,300 crore investment into the expansion of Thiruvananthapuram International Airport under the name “Project Anantha”.

With an aim to do a significant overhaul of the infrastructure by 2027, the expansion includes an extended renewal of the terminal, with a focus on Kerala’s culture and heritage. It remains to be seen what will happen to the plan now that there are tax implications in the mix.

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AMRG & Associates Senior Partner Rajat Mohan noted Kerala AAR’s contrasting stance, saying, “this discrepancy highlights the need for clearer guidance at a national level to ensure uniformity, as businesses navigating such transactions could face inconsistent tax treatment.” The only similarity with the GST body’s treatment of the identical Jaipur deal was the 18 per cent GST levied on the invoices raised by AAI for reimbursement of salary and staff cost since they come under “supply of services”.

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Energy smart meter issues creating north-south divide

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Is Reform UK's plan to get Farage into No 10 mission impossible?
BBC A woman wearing a floral blouse and jumper holds a mobile phone showing a reading from their smart meter in one hand and a cup of black coffee in a pink mug in the other. Her arms are resting on a wooden table top.
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Smart meters enable people to monitor their electricity and gas use

The way smart energy meters work in northern England and Scotland is causing issues for customers, BBC Panorama has been told.

The body that represents energy companies, Energy UK, has confirmed for the first time there is a regional divide – because of the way meters send usage data back to suppliers.

The technology used in the north can affect whether smart meters work properly – and could leave customers having to submit manual readings and receiving estimated bills.

The issues have also been confirmed by meter engineers who have spoken to the BBC.

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In the Midlands, Wales and southern England, all meters use wireless cellular technology – similar to mobile phones – to send data to energy providers. If a signal is not strong enough, it can be boosted by an aerial.

But in northern England and Scotland, meters instead rely on radio frequencies and no such fix is available.

It is a legal requirement, the government says, for suppliers to make sure smart meters are working and it expects suppliers to “resolve all issues at a much faster pace”.

The mass roll-out of smart meters began 12 years ago, with the goal of helping people save money on their bills, while lowering carbon emissions as part of the government’s net zero plan.

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By showing how much energy households are using, and how much it is costing, meters are intended to encourage people to use more energy at times of day when it is cheaper – because there is a surplus while most are in bed and factories are closed.

As more energy comes from renewable sources, smart meters will form a vital part of a “smart grid”, allowing consumers’ demand for energy to match the available supply, minute-by-minute.

Close-up shot of Hartesh Battu looking above the camera. He has short dark hair, dark eyes and eyebrows, and slight dark stubble. He is wearing a denim shirt and is standing in front of a window, framed by thick cream curtains.

Hartesh Battu says he has had six different smart meters and none of them have worked

The cost of installing smart meters across Great Britain is estimated to be £13.5bn, according to the government. There are 36 million such devices in England, Wales and Scotland – but recent government figures show 3.5 million of them are not working properly.

As a rule of thumb, smart meters in the northern region designed to connect to the radio signal have two small indicator lights on the communications hub, fitted to the top of the smart meter. The hubs fitted to smart meters in central and southern regions, receiving the cellular signal, usually have five of these indicator lights.

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Northern Ireland’s energy market is separate with its own rules and regulator – and a consultation on a proposed smart meter roll-out is taking place.

Hartesh Battu, a doctor from Glasgow, has had six different smart meters, fitted by two energy suppliers, none of which have worked. “I just think it’s astonishingly bad in terms of the technology,” he told us. “I do feel like, ‘how could billions of pounds be spent on something so bad?’”

He told the BBC he had wanted a smart meter so he could save energy on his bills and take advantage of a night-time rate that would make it cheaper to charge his electric car.

His current energy supplier, Octopus Energy, told him the problem was down to signal issues in the area and may be because he lived “far up north” – reasoning that left him feeling deeply unimpressed. “I just thought that was a bit bonkers because I live in Glasgow, I’m hardly up in Shetland, I’m not rural at all.”

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Graphic titled: Where you live influences how your smart meter works.
It shows the middle of Great Britain, with an orange line demarking approximately the north-south divide from Liverpool on the west coast to Hull on the East. 
To the north of the line is a graphic representation of a radio mast with the text 'smart meters in northern England and Scotland rely on radio signals to operate. This can cause issues. 
Below the line is a graphic representation of a mobile phone mast with the text reading, 'smart meters in the rest of England and Wales use mobile technology, so the signal can be improved by an aerial'.

When the mass roll-out started, the decision to use radio signals across northern England and Scotland – rather than the mobile technology further south – was because it was thought the signals would be able to travel far across the hills and mountains, reaching more rural communities more easily.

But Energy UK admits there are problems regarding how the radio signals transmit. “There are issues in the north,” chief executive Dhara Vyas told us.

She said there were “live conversations” within the industry about increasing the network range in the north of England and Scotland.

This technological divide has been experienced by smart meter engineers who have spoken anonymously to Panorama.

One engineer, “Ahmed” told us there were more problems in northern England and Scotland on average, adding that the technology further south was more up to date.

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“You can end up going to someone’s house at the bottom of a mountain in the north and the radio frequency can’t get through. But there could be a good 3G signal nearby and that could get through – the customer doesn’t know that,” he said.

Another engineer, “Steve” working for a major energy supplier in Merseyside, who has experience of installing meters in homes on both sides of the regional divide, told us it was “far easier to complete a successful installation” in the south and Midlands where he could use the cellular network.

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Smart meters are supposed to make paying our energy bills easier and cheaper. But is that the whole story?

Watch now on BBC iPlayer – or on BBC One on Monday 11 November at 20:00 (20:30 in Wales and Northern Ireland).

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The original roll-out of smart meters is a “textbook example of a project failure”, Sir Dieter Helm, a former government advisor on energy policy, told Panorama.

He believes the Coalition government made several mistakes that led to the roll-out taking too long and costing too much money. The decision to divide the communications network in two was one such error, he says, which meant there “were bound to be problems and right from the word go”.

Energy suppliers do not have direct control over the communication network – in both the north and south. Instead it is run by an organisation known as the Data Communications Company (DCC) and is operated by outsourcing company, Capita.

Panorama contacted Dr Battu’s energy supplier, Octopus Energy, about the problems he was having with his meter. The company said the situation was “frustrating” because government regulations dictated it must use the radio-wave technology to provide a signal to Dr Battu’s meter – and that it was not permitted to access the local 3G signal instead.

However, in what they described as “a highly unusual move”, Octopus told us that it had in fact decided to break the rules and fix his meter by connecting it to the mobile network. It added that “regulation has not moved with technology”.

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Meter engineer, “Alan”, agrees with Octopus that the rules are too rigid. When he encounters problems in the north with radio-wave technology, especially in built up areas, he says he wishes he could access the cellular network.

“It shouldn’t be an either-or. We should be able to use both.”

Capita told the BBC it advised energy suppliers against using alternative technological solutions, because that would mean there was no contractual or consumer protection for the meter user to ensure service was maintained or problems addressed.

It said the network it runs provides 99.3% coverage across Great Britain, adding that it was “fully committed to resolving connection issues”.

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In a statement it added: “The DCC is actively working with government to provide a future-proof 4G technology solution for the whole of Britain.”

Head and shoulders shot of Martin Lewis looking and talking to side of camera. He has short cropped hair and his wearing a white shirt with the top few buttons open. He is sitting on a chair in what looks like a boardroom, with a long table with chairs on one side and lit light bulbs at the end.

Money Saving Expert founder Martin Lewis says someone has to make the smart meter system work

Most energy users pay a little bit extra on their bills towards the cost of installing and fixing smart meters. That is supposed to be offset by the savings they could make and the environmental benefits.

And the latest figures show that nine in 10 smart meters are working fine. But a recent survey by Citizens’ Advice suggests one in five households have had to regularly send manual meter readings because their smart meters haven’t worked properly.

Money Saving Expert founder Martin Lewis told the BBC he was supportive of the concept of smart meters, but the reality had not matched up.

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“I find it incredibly frustrating how bad the roll-out has been, it has taken far too long, it has cost billions. All our bills are higher because of it, and we haven’t yet reaped the benefit because it hasn’t been done right. Somebody needs to grab the bull by the horns and make the smart meter system finally work.”

The government told Panorama that “while over 90% of smart meters are operating normally’’ the number not working properly was “still too high” and, as a result, “many households are missing out on cheaper, flexible tariffs”.

It also said that a recent customer experience survey by Ofgem “found no statistically significant differences” in the proportion of customers reporting that their meter was not sending readings to their suppliers for areas in, or predominantly in, the north.

Most experts agree smart meters can help to deliver lower bills and lower carbon emissions. But if the tech problems continue, that could put people off having them and undermine the government’s goal of getting them into every home.

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Chinese markets fall as Beijing’s stimulus package disappoints investors

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China’s markets fell on Monday after a fiscal stimulus package announced by authorities last week to help shore up its economy underwhelmed investors.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 2.1 per cent, while mainland China’s CSI 300 edged lower. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark affected by the outlook for China demand, was trading 0.4 per cent lower at $73.50 a barrel.

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Chinese equities had climbed over the past week with expectations of more details on Beijing’s stimulus plan following a monetary policy blitz at the end of September. But investors were disappointed by the lack of measures targeting consumption, said analysts.

“Investors are unwinding bullish bets as they feel the major event is over and they are a bit let down,” said Jason Lui, head of Asia-Pacific equities and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas. Lui noted that mainland markets were benefiting from increased retail participation and the central bank’s new lending facilities.

Traders in options markets sold down their Chinese equity positions in Hong Kong, implying they did not believe the fiscal stimulus would lead to any major market moves. Six-month at-the-money options for the Hang Seng China Enterprises index were down 8.5 per cent.

China’s rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress, on Friday announced a $1.4tn package to restructure local government debt. The long-awaited fiscal plan included authorising local governments to issue bonds to restructure much of a “hidden” debt pile worth about Rmb14tn ($2tn).

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Finance minister Lan Fo’an said the government was “studying” additional measures to recapitalise big banks and strengthen consumption but did not provide more details.

The country’s central bank on Monday fixed trading on the renminbi at its lowest level in a year, at Rmb7.18 a dollar, 0.5 per cent lower than Friday’s fix. The dollar strengthened by 0.1 per cent to $105.1 against of a basket of six currencies.

The weaker exchange rate suggests downward pressure on the renminbi from investment outflows and traders positioning for president-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration and potential trade tensions with China.

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“With perceived emphasis on stabilisation rather than stimulus, and no measures to facilitate bank recapitalisation and/or boost consumption, we think this will come as a disappointment for stock investors,” wrote analysts at Nomura.

Investor focus has shifted to the Central Economic Work Conference, an agenda-setting economic meeting held by authorities in early December in Beijing, for more stimulus details.

“Constant delays and underwhelming stimulus might remind some investors of Green Day’s ‘Boulevard of Broken Dreams’ — a song that echoes the feeling of repeated disappointments,” added Nomura.

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Amid Singapore Airlines’ investment, reports suggest Air India pilots unhappy over retirement age- The Week

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Amid Singapore Airlines' investment, reports suggest Air India pilots unhappy over retirement age- The Week

Different retirement ages for pilots of Air India and those of Vistara could be a potential issue, with reports suggesting that a section of the flying officers are unhappy as the merger between both carriers gets underway this week.

Formerly owned by the government, Air India came under the Tata fold in 2022. The latest merger with Vistara, which is supposed to be concluded later this week, has also raised questions regarding the confusion about the retirement of pilots.

As of now, the retirement age for pilots and staff is 58 years at Air India and 60 years at Vistara. Current DGCA regulations allow pilots to fly up to the age of 65. Reports say that management has yet to provide a statement regarding the same to clear any brewing discord.

“While the management was prompt in bringing parity in terms of salary structure and other working conditions of the employees of the two airlines as part of the merger process, it is yet to address the issue of two different retirement age limits,” an anonymous source told PTI.

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ALSO READ | Air India Express muses new international flights to Bangkok, GCC from tier-2 cities

Will Singapore Airlines’ investment help transform Air India?

Singapore Airlines recently announced that it would invest Rs 3,194.5 crore in the merged Air India entity.

This adds to the merger consideration of 49 per cent interest in Vistara and Rs 2,058.5 crore in cash from Singapore Airlines (SIA) in exchange for a 25.1 per cent stake in the merged carrier.

ALSO READ | Kerala GST body slaps taxes on Adani’s Thiruvananthapuram airport pact

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“SIA’s additional capital injection is expected to be Rs 3,194.5 crore (about SGD 498 million), based on Tata’s funding to Air India to date. This will occur after the completion of the merger and within November 2024 through subscription to new Air India shares,” read a statement by Singapore Airlines.

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