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The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House

The US dollar has rallied to its strongest level since August, boosted by a recent string of strong economic data and investor bets that Donald Trump’s chance of winning next month’s presidential election is on the rise.

The currency has climbed nearly 4 per cent since late September against a basket of rivals, helped by blockbuster US jobs figures earlier this month that prompted investors to scale back their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

But traders and analysts say shorter odds on a second Trump administration have added fuel to the rally, given that the former president’s plans to slap tariffs on imports are expected to push up inflation and interest rates should he win on November 5.

“The markets are moving to price in a greater probability of Trump victory,” said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

Betting markets and swing-state polls showing momentum for the former president have prompted investors to consider the market impact of policies to raise tariffs, restrict immigration and lower taxes.

Trump has indicated his desire to weaken the dollar, but investors have long thought his economic policies will do the opposite, particularly if the Republicans manage a “red sweep” of the White House and both houses of Congress.

Citi said its hedge fund clients, encouraged by the shift in US election odds, had this month been on their longest daily buying streak of the dollar in two years. Barclays said there was an observable “election premium” in the dollar, adding that the shift in Fed expectations on its own was not sufficient to explain the currency’s recent gains. 

Thierry Wizman, global foreign exchange and interest rate strategist at Macquarie, said there were “two pillars” to the dollar’s recent strength. The first was what he called the “re-emergence of American exceptionalism” in strong economic data, and the second was signs of a so-called “Trump trade”.

Trump’s economic policies “tend to be associated with more inflation and as a result they tend to be associated with a less aggressive rate-easing cycle from the Fed over the next few years”, said Wizman.

Expectations of slower interest rate cuts by the Fed have also fuelled a sell-off in longer-term US Treasuries in recent weeks, with the yield on the 10-year government bond reaching 4.22 per cent on Tuesday, its highest since July.

Swaps markets expect one or two further Fed cuts this year, implying a significant chance that the central bank holds rates at one of its two remaining meetings. Last month, investors had been expecting at least a quarter-point cut at each meeting.

The shift, just a month after the Fed launched began lowering borrowing costs from a 23-year high, has sent traders scrambling to adjust their positions. Volatility in the Treasuries market, measured by the Ice BofA Move index, has reached its highest level since the end of last year. 

However, with the US election result still seen as very close, other analysts said most investors would be reluctant to make wagers on the outcome at this point.

Tim Baker, Deutsche Bank’s head of FX research for the Americas, said he did think a Trump victory would “help the dollar, but we think that lies ahead”. 

The election is “basically a binary event with huge tail risks on either side”, said Mark McCormick, global head of FX and EM strategy at TD Securities.

SPOTTING a specific animal on a 50p could help you complete a rare collection that could be worth up to £160.

The Royal Mint has launched a new steppe mammoth coin as part of its latest Tale of the Earth Collection, which features rare and extinct animals.

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In the past, the designs have included dinosaurs but the latest range is centred around the Ice Age, which took place over 11,000 years ago.

Experts at Change Checker said: “The Tales of the Earth series as a whole is dedicated to celebrating ancient life on our planet, offering collectors a glimpse into a world that existed thousands of years ago, and the Ice Age Giants 50ps take us all the way back to the Ice Age.”

The 50p coin was designed by paleo-artist Robert Nicholls in collaboration with the Natural History Museum.

The reverse of the coin features a design of the famous animal, which was wiped out centuries ago due to hunting and rising temperatures.

It is currently available to buy from the Royal Mint website, with prices starting at £12.

These coins are uncirculated, meaning they are for collectors and you would not receive one as change in a shop.

The UK manufacturer has plans to release two more coins for the collection, which feature a 50p woolly rhino and also a giant dear.

These are not available to buy yet but you can pre-order them on the Change Checker website.

In the past, similar collections like this have been highly sought after by collectors.

The Royal Mint 2021 dinosaur collection, featuring all three coins, was sold for £160 on eBay earlier this month.

But it is worth remembering that coins are only worth what buyers are willing to pay for them.

For example, an identical set was sold for £25 on October 21.

The single steppe mammoth coin sold for £9.99 on eBay this week.

As the new Ice Age collection has not yet been fully launched, so it’s not quite clear just how much it will be worth.

But it’s not just animal collections that spark interest from collectors.

Coins featuring characters from children’s books or television can also be a hit.

For example, the Royal Mint’s 2018 edition of The Snowman coin, which features the iconic image of him flying in the sky, sold for £10.50 this Ocotber.

The 2019 edition, depicting the lovable cartoon as he comes to life, sold for £10.99 this month also.

You may have seen recently The Royal Mint released a 50p coin featuring the Gruffalo to celebrate the 20th anniversary of its books.

The Sun recently rounded up a full list of quirky rare coins that could be worth £356, which you can check out here.

How to spot rare coins and banknotes

Rare coins and notes hiding down the back of your sofa could sell for hundreds of pounds.

If you are lucky enough to find a rare £10 note you might be able to sell it for multiple times its face value.

You can spot rare notes by keeping an eye out for the serial numbers.

These numbers can be found on the side with the Monarch’s face, just under the value £10 in the corner of the note.

Also if you have a serial number on your note that is quite quirky you could cash in thousands.

For example, one seller bagged £3,600 after spotting a specific serial number relating to the year Jane Austen was born on one of their notes.

You can check if your notes are worth anything on eBay, just tick “completed and sold items” and filter by the highest value.

It will give you an idea of what people are willing to pay for some notes.

But do bear in mind that yours is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it.

This is also the case for coins, you can determine how rare your coin is by looking a the latest scarcity index.

The next step is to take a look at what has been recently sold on eBay.

Experts from Change Checker recommend looking at “sold listings” to be sure that the coin has sold for the specified amount rather than just been listed.

HDFC Bank, the country’s largest private sector lender, is getting ready to list its non-banking finance company (NBFC) HDB Financial Services (HDBFS). At Rs 12,500 crore, this will be the largest initial public offering (IPO) in the NBFC space so far, and it will be the first public issue for the HDFC Group in about six years.

The public issue includes up to Rs 10,000 crore worth of stake that HDFC Bank intends to sell in HDBFS and the NBFC will also raise Rs 2,500 crore through a fresh issue of shares. HDFC Bank received approval from its board of directors for the IPO on Saturday.

“The IPO will be for such number of equity shares of face value of Rs 10 each of HDBFS aggregating up to Rs 12,500 crore comprising of a fresh issue of such number of equity shares of face value of Rs 10 each of HDBFS aggregating up to Rs 2,500 crore and an OFS (offer for sale) of such number of equity shares of face value of Rs 10 each of HDBFS aggregating up to Rs 10,000 crore,” the lender said in a stock exchange filing.

The price and other details of the proposed IPO are to be determined in due course.

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HDFC Bank currently holds 94.5 per cent stake in HDBFS and the NBFC will continue to be its subsidiary even post the IPO. Reserve Bank of India had come out with norms in 2022, which mandated NBFCs in the upper layer to list on stock exchanges. The listing of HDBFS follows those norms.

HDBFS is a non-deposit taking NBFC and offers a range of secured and unsecured loans to its customers. It has over 1,747 branches across 27 states and four union territories.

Separately, its BPO services division delivers back office services such as forms processing, document verification, finance and accounting services. It also delivers front office services like contact center management, outbound marketing and collection services.

For the quarter ended September 30, HDBFS reported a profit after tax of Rs 590 crore on revenue of Rs 2,410 crore. The total loan book of the NBFC was at Rs 98,600 crore as of September 30, 2024.

Currently, apart from HDFC Bank, HDFC Life Insurance and HDFC Asset Management are listed on the stock exchanges. HDFC Bank shares were trading 3.3 per cent higher on Monday at Rs 1,737 on the BSE, even as the broader BSE Sensex was down over 170 points or 0.2 per cent. HDFC Life Insurance was up 0.7 per cent at Rs 747.70 and HDFC Asset Management was down 0.5 per cent at Rs 4,687.85.

M&S shoppers are obsessed with a £15 box of chocolates which comes with a unique festive surprise.

The fancy supermarket has brought out a gift box with a magical miniature forest inside – and when you shake it, it snows.

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The 200g Magical Snowing Forest which has a charming snow-globe effect has sent M&S fans wild on social media.

One user took to the Christmas Money Saver Facebook group to share a photo of their find with the group.

“The world’s first snowing chocolate box” contains milk and blonde truffles in a secret drawer compartment.

The post was met with over 2,000 likes and 337 comments.

One said: “Omg I so want one of these”.

Another wrote: “Just bought it, it’s really beautiful and would be a fabulous gift to get.”

While a third added: “I got one for my husband and one for a friend, I love it, I know my granddaughter would love it too.”

You can buy the snow box in-store in M&S from the food hall.

To find your nearest M&S store, you can go to its website and use the store finder tool.

But make sure you’re quick as items like these tend to sell out fast.

Or if you’d rather have it delivered to your house, you can order it online through Ocado.

Bear in mind this will be a little pricier as delivery costs extra.

You should also have a shop around before you buy the box to see if there are any similar products for cheaper elsewhere.

The M&S Magical Forest was the only snow-globe chocolate box we would find, but the shop does also sell a Santa chocolate sleigh for just £5.

You can also buy a 140g box of festive chocolate shortbread stars for £2.10 in Tesco.

Or Cadbury‘s 110g snow-ball themed chocolate bar is available to buy in most supermarkets.

In Sainsbury’s, for example, it is £1.65 for a bar of snowball chocolate, or £4.50 for a 270g bag of snow balls.

Aldi is also selling a 125g box of Dairyfine mini chocolate snowmen for £3.29.

Supermarkets are always changing their prices, so it’s best to check how much your product is online before visiting the store.

Websites like Trolley are useful for comparing prices between major supermarkets and making sure you bag the best deal.

And when you’re in store, it always helps to keep an eye out for yellow stickers, as you never know what might unexpectedly be reduced.

What else is M&S selling this Christmas?

M&S festive food is always the centre of excitement at Christmas time, with shoppers splashing that little bit extra to mark the occasion.

The Sun tried all 450 new items in the M&S huge Christmas range, including a turkey feast lasagne and hot honey brie.

We rated the Xmas dinner dip the top of our list this year – it features bacon bits, turkey, cranberry and even stuffing and is delicious to eat with bread or crisps.

Booze lovers will also be pleased to see the original snow globe gin liqueur back on shelves this year after it was slashed from last year’s range.

In previous years M&S have had to install an alcohol buying limit because of the massive demand.

Shoppers can also buy 75cl bottles of cocktail drinks on sale at the moment for just £5.50, which come in flavours Christmas Cosmo, Christmas Colada and Christmas on the Beach.

The new white mulled wine is also £6 and offers another twist on a winter favourite, with pear, vanilla and mulled spice flavours.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

A McDonald’s sandwich has been making people sick in the US, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

E. coli, a type of bacteria that can cause serious stomach problems, has been found in McDonald’s Quarter Pounder sandwiches, the CDC announced on Tuesday.

So far, the CDC has recorded 49 cases of illness across 10 states. Ten cases resulted in patients being admitted to hospital and one person has died.

Most of the cases were recorded in western and Midwest states, according to the CDC.

The fast-food restaurant is working with investigators to determine which ingredients caused the outbreak, according to a statement from the CDC.

“McDonald’s has pulled ingredients for these burgers, and they won’t be available for sale in some states,” the agency said.

“It is not yet known which specific food ingredient is contaminated,” the CDC added, noting that McDonald’s has already “stopped using fresh slivered onions and quarter-pound beef patties in several states”.

The CDC said that the slivered onions are believed to be the likely source of contamination, and investigators with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are working to determine if the onions were sold to any other business.

No recalls have been issued yet by the CDC or by other health and food regulators.

The first case was recorded on 27 September, investigators say. Victims have ranged in age from 13 to 88.

Of the 10 people taken to hospital, one person developed hemolytic uremic syndrome, a serious condition that can cause kidney failure.

Another person, who the CDC described as “an older adult in Colorado” died after eating at McDonald’s.

Cases have been reported in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Oregon, Utah, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

McDonald’s shares fell by about 9% on the New York Stock Exchange after the news broke on Tuesday.

In a statement, McDonald’s said that a preliminary investigation found “that a subset of illnesses may be linked to slivered onions used in the Quarter Pounder and sourced by a single supplier that serves three distribution centers”.

The Chicago-based company added that it has instructed all local restaurants “to remove this product from their supply” and have paused shipments of slivered onions to the region.

The sandwich is also being temporarily removed from the menu in several states, the company said, adding: “We take food safety extremely seriously and it’s the right thing to do.”

Other beef products remain on the menu, McDonald’s USA President Joe Erlinger said in a video message.

“At McDonald’s, you can count on us to do the right thing,” he said.

E. coli are a diverse group of bacteria that normally live in the intestines of humans and animals.

Although many are harmless, some produce toxins that can make you sick.

Symptoms include severe and sometimes bloody diarrhoea, stomach cramps, vomiting and fever.

It usually takes a few days after being infected for symptoms to show.

This is not the first E. coli outbreak to affect McDonald’s in recent years.

In 2022, six children in Alabama were sickened with E. coli after eating chicken McNuggets.

Four children were admitted to hospital. Health inspectors later visited the affected restaurant and found several violations, including improper hand-washing and a lack of gloves.

A MAJOR bank is giving away £180 in free cash – just in time for the expensive Christmas period.

The generous reward is available to any new or existing customer who switches their main current account to the bank’s reward account.

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The offer from NatWest lasts for a limited time only – so those eyeing up the extra cash for Christmas should act fast.

To be eligible, customers must pay £1250 into their new Reward Account – through either single or multiple payments.

This must remain in the account for 24 hours.

Customers must also have the latest version of the NatWest mobile banking app.

If these conditions are met, £180 will be paid into the account within seven days.

And it’s not the only reward available for switching to the NatWest Reward Account.

Customers can also receive a further £60 in rewards a year by signing up – as well as money off at a range of retailers.

However, the account does charge a £2 monthly fee.

Other banks are also offering cash incentives for switching bank accounts in the runup to Christmas.

Lloyds is offering £200 to customers who switch to the Club Lloyds account before December 10.

Those who open a 1st Account with First Direct can enjoy a payment of £175.

Nationwide has launched a new offer of £175 to switch to its FlexDirect, FlexPlus or FlexAccount current accounts.

And Co-op Bank has announced that customers could receive £75 for switching to the bank – plus three monthly installments of £75.

Aside from the Reward Account, NatWest also has some other tempting offers for customers.

These include a 6% interest rate with the Digital Regular Saver account, prepaid “Rooster” debit cards for kids, and 1% back in rewards on the Travel Reward Credit Card.

These rewards can be exchanged for Amazon vouchers as well as cash.

To change your bank account, you should go through the Current Account Switch Service (CASS).

This automatically moves all your direct debits to your new account.

How do I switch bank accounts?

SWITCHING bank accounts is a simple process and can usually be done through the Current Account Switch Service (CASS).

Dozens of high street banks and building societies are signed up – there’s a full list on CASS’ website.

Under the switching service, swapping banks should take seven working days.

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You don’t have to remember to move direct debits across when moving, as this is done for you.

All you have to do is apply for the new account you want, and the new bank will tell your existing one you’re moving.

There are a few things you can do before switching though, including choosing your switch date and transferring any old bank statements to your new account.

You should get in touch with your existing bank for any old statements.

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When switching current accounts, consider what other perks might come with joining a specific bank or building society.

Some banks offer 0% overdrafts up to a certain limit, and others might offer better rates on savings accounts.

And some banks offer free travel or mobile phone insurance with their current accounts – but these accounts might come with a monthly fee.