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Yen carry and US tech

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Chart showing the gap between the US’s and Japan’s real policy rates:

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Good morning. Yesterday UPS reported a strong increase in package volumes for the second quarter in a row after a long post-pandemic slump. Whether this is a victory of the US goods economy, for Shein and Temu, or for all three remains to be seen. Tell us what you have been ordering: robert.armstrong@ft.com and aiden.reiter@ft.com.  

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Is yen carry funding the US stock rally? 

Dhaval Joshi at BCA Research thinks that the yen carry trade is an important — indeed, the important — factor in the US tech stock rally, and that the biggest risk to the rally is therefore a strengthening yen. 

His argument is based on the historically wide differential between US and Japanese real rates. Here is his chart of the gap between the two countries’ real policy rates:

Chart showing the gap between the US’s and Japan’s real policy rates:

It was at just the moment this differential blew out in mid-2022 — and yen financing for US assets became correspondingly cheap — that US tech stock valuations recovered from the beating they took in the first half of that year, when the Fed began to raise interest rates. Joshi provides this tidy chart showing how tech valuations decoupled from 30-year bond yields and started to track yen weakness (the brown yen plot is flipped; up means the yen is weaker relative to the dollar):

Chart showing how tech valuations decoupled from 30-year bond yields

Joshi concludes from all this that 

Borrowing in yen at deeply negative real rates has fuelled the latest inflation in US tech valuations . . . the biggest risk to the bull market is not a US recession. The biggest risk is the end of the deeply negative real rates in Japan versus the US.

Interestingly, the end could come from trouble at either end of the trade:

The causality could run either way. Higher real rates in Japan versus the US and the associated stronger yen would deflate US tech stock valuations, as happened in July and August this year. Or a puncturing of the hype and hope surrounding generative AI would unwind yen funded leveraged exposure to US tech, and thereby result in a stronger yen.

Joshi suggests investors hedge this risk by being long the yen.

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This theory appeals to Unhedged for several reasons. It is contrarian. And it is nice to have a story about why US stock valuations have risen and stayed high in the face of rising bond yields (a puzzle we discussed yesterday). And we don’t have a particularly good alternative story, other than some “animal spirits” hand waving, or some mumbling about the resilience of the US economy. 

But correlations can deceive. And we wonder whether, in a world where Japanese official policy is (by fits and starts) hawkish and US policy has recently shifted in a dovish direction, whether many investors out there would have the courage to put on the kind of trade Joshi describes — especially after the carry trade scare this summer, and given the volatility of the rate environment ahead of the US election.

We tried to reproduce Joshi’s policy rate differential chart using data we gathered elsewhere; this is what we got:

Line chart of Japan real policy rate minus US policy rate showing Rebounding

Our version shows that the rate cap has already closed by 1.3 percentage points, and the trend is clear. 

James Malcolm, a UBS FX strategist focused on Japan, says that

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The carry trade itself got wiped out so much [this summer]. We had a dramatic move there. What always happens after these events [is] risk limits get tightened up . . . I spend a lot of time every day talking to people who trade Japan. On the whole, FX guys have had a poor few months, and very little profit and loss cushion. They have no capacity to take risks at the moment.

FX consultant Mark Farrington agrees: “Given how high volatility is, it makes it less likely” that traders are still taking advantage of yen carry, he says. “There are too many unrelated risks floating around.”

If there are any brave carry traders out there, email us. 

(Armstrong and Reiter)

Housing

A few months ago we said that the US housing market was just plain awful. Inventories were rising, yet prices were unaffordable and rising. The situation has gotten worse since. Inventories of new homes have now reached their highest in more than a decade. Chart from John Burns Consulting:

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Chart showing the number of unsold homes in the US rising

Meanwhile, more existing homes are coming on to the market after years of homeowners being unwilling to give up cheap mortgages. “The [mortgage] lock-in effect is slowly waning,” says Rick Palacios at John Burns Consulting, “And you have select markets, like Texas and Florida, where people are starting to put homes on the market for unique reasons, [such as] property and hazard insurance.”

Line chart of Months of existing home supply for sale showing Slowly unfreezing

In a market with high inventories, you might expect prices to fall. Not in the broken US housing market. According to Troy Ludtka at SMBC Nikko Securities America, we are seeing more supply come “at a time when there is no demand”. Prices have ticked down for new homes but sales are subdued. For existing homes, prices are still increasing.

A chart showing the median prices of new and existing home sales

Homebuilders are pulling back. Housing permits and housing starts remain weak:

Line chart of Thousands of units showing Not getting better

With builders building less and the decline in mortgage rates stalling, new supply is not on the way.

Line chart of average 30-year fixed residential mortgage

An economic slowdown would bring rates down and help unlock the market — and rising housing inventories and discouraged homebuilders make a slowdown more likely. Residential fixed investment is an important “swing factor” in GDP growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis highlighted the downturn in housing investments in the second quarter, when there was more building than there is now. But no one will celebrate a looser housing market that is triggered by a recession.

(Reiter)

One good read

PMSR.

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Pro-Russia parties gain ground in Bulgaria ahead of elections

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Map of Bulgaria showing the capital Sofia and Sliven

Pro-Russia parties are gaining ground in Bulgaria ahead of a parliamentary vote on Sunday, as Moscow capitalises on continued political instability in the EU and Nato’s south-eastern member.

Heading into the seventh parliamentary election in just four years, politicians who adopt pro-Kremlin messaging have become increasingly popular with voters disillusioned with mainstream politics.

“Parties with some level of Russian influence may attract about a quarter of the vote or more, depending on mobilisation and turnout,” said Daniel Smilov, a political scientist at the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia.

“People who see themselves as left behind seem more motivated to vote, which might create unpleasant surprises for pro-European forces.”

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Most analysts project yet another inconclusive election, followed by an eighth vote in spring. Several insiders told the Financial Times that major parties and government officials are already planning for that snap poll next year.

The uncertainty benefits Moscow as it showcases Bulgaria’s dysfunction as systemic EU and Nato weaknesses.

“In the three years since I’ve been here, this is already the sixth election. It is sad,” Russia’s ambassador Eleonora Mitrofanova said in June, when Bulgaria held its last parliamentary vote. She pledged to work with any government that is formed, given that “our relationship is now at zero”.

Map of Bulgaria showing the capital Sofia and Sliven

Russia has mounted multiple influence campaigns on the continent this year, including in the run-up to the European parliament elections in June when a network run by a Moscow-based oligarch was uncovered as paying for politicians to peddle Kremlin lines and get more like-minded MEPs elected into the EU assembly.

The leadership of Moldova on Sunday only narrowly secured a Yes vote in a referendum on EU membership after what officials in Chișinău described as a massive vote-buying operation orchestrated by Moscow to back the No campaign.

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Although Bulgaria has investigated Russian infiltration and expelled more than 100 diplomats since the start of the Kremlin’s full-scale war against Ukraine, political parties have so far escaped scrutiny of how susceptible they are to influence from Moscow.

Bulgarian mainstream parties are mostly pro-western and the country has supported Ukraine in its defence against Russian aggression, including with weapons shipments.

But several upstart, pro-Russia outfits have seen their support growing among Bulgarian voters, Smilov said.

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The far-right Revival party has grown into a mid-size force with about 15 per cent of electoral support. Its leader Kostadin Kostadinov is banned from Ukraine on suspicions of being a Russian agent. He headed a delegation to a Brics forum in Moscow in late August, and has often criticised Bulgaria’s support for Ukraine.

“If you want war, choose [other parties], they support Zelenskyy’s criminal regime in Ukraine,” Kostadinov wrote on Facebook this week. “If you want peace, choose Revival. The choice is yours. Me and my comrades have already chosen.”

Kostadin Kostadinov leads a march under the motto “Give peace a chance” in support of the people in Gaza and South Lebanon
The Revival party, led by Kostadin Kostadinov, centre, has grown into a mid-size force with about 15% of electoral support © Nikolay Doychinov/AFP/Getty Images

The Bulgarian Socialist party, which has shrunk below 10 per cent, is also ambiguous on Russia, with its deputies regularly criticising Bulgaria’s support for Ukraine, including its arms shipments.

Two upstart parties founded this year are also highly ambivalent on Ukraine, “overlapping with pro-Russia lines”, Smilov said.

Mech (Morality, Unity, Honour) is a Eurosceptic conservative group that claims neutrality over Ukraine, while Velichie (Greatness) has said it would prevent Bulgaria from participating in the war effort — although denied it was pro-Russia. They each poll just below 4 per cent, the parliamentary threshold in Bulgaria.

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Causing more fragmentation, the second-largest party, the Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) split this year over a leadership struggle.

Tycoon Delyan Peevski, who took over the party, was banned from the US for corruption, with the UK last year also placing him on its sanctions list for “attempts to exert control over key institutions and sectors in Bulgarian society through bribery and use of his media empire”.

Delyan Peevski is seated among other attendees during a session of the National Assembly in Sofia
The Movement for Rights and Freedoms, led by Delyan Peevski, centre, split this year over a leadership struggle © STR/NurPhoto/Reuters

The split of the ethnic Turkish vote — representing more than 10 per cent of the Bulgarian population — had “dramatic consequences”, said Goran Georgiev, an analyst with the Sofia-based Center for the Study of Democracy. “The low trust in democratic institutions makes the elections wholly unpredictable.”

Voter apathy is further complicating the outcome.

Turnout was just below 33 per cent in June and may fall further, boosting the chances of fringe parties, Georgiev said.

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On the streets of Sliven in central Bulgaria, passers-by were largely ignoring party activists who were campaigning for APS, the Turkish party that split from the Peevski-ran outfit.

“I couldn’t care less, honestly,” said Arzu, a mother of two. “One is just like the other.”

A local candidate running for APS, Vladimir Martinov, admitted: “It’s partly our fault that there was no stable coalition in recent years.” He said the liberals “offered us a coalition provided we got rid of Peevski. We said no. It’s our fault.”

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FCA: Risk profiling the ‘foundation of good advice’

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FCA: Risk profiling the ‘foundation of good advice’

Accurate risk profiling is the “foundation of good advice”, the Financial Conduct Authority’s head of investment platforms Kate Tuckley has insisted.

She said moving from accumulation to decumulation is likely to change a customer’s attitude to risk, so this should be reassessed.

“Advisers should not assume that a risk profile remains the same, either when moving into decumulation or from previous advice meetings,” she added.

She made the comments during a keynote speech at Money Marketing Interactive in Leeds yesterday (24 October).

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“A key risk is capacity for loss – the ability to absorb losses in retirement, which is critical given the lower future earning potential.

“Many customers may have been able to recover losses during their working years, but this changes in retirement.”

She cited the FCA’s thematic review of retirement income advice, which found that some advisers’ files did not show that capacity for loss had been assessed, or where it had been assessed.

“Clear consideration of this is crucial to demonstrate the suitability of advice,” she said.

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“Cash flow modelling (CFM) tools can be used for capacity for loss assessments. However, firms need to assess both attitude to risk and capacity for loss consistently.

“Tools such as standard questionnaires can be useful, but you should be aware of their limitations, especially when the language or questions are not tailored to decumulation, which can lead to incorrect profiling.

“Whatever approach is used, firms must demonstrate that their methods are suitable for retirement income advice.”

Pension freedoms came into effect in 2015, giving consumers more choice and less prescription in how they meet their retirement income needs.

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“They can take as much or as little as they like, or even fully cash out if they choose,” said Tuckley.

“As you know, there’s no longer a requirement to buy an annuity, and drawdown is no longer just for the wealthy.

“However,” she warned, “more choice brings more complexity, not just for consumers but also for advisers.

“Most consumers have moved away from guaranteed income for life and keep their pension savings invested, which presents a big challenge for advisers.”

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She said advisers need to help consumers manage ongoing risks and make complex decisions about meeting their income needs sustainably.

The FCA is following up on the thematic review and is “completing further work” on retirement income advice, which Tuckley said will continue to be a “priority” in its strategy.

“We want to explore this in more depth to understand how firms are responding to our report,” she said.

The regulator aims to publish further findings in the first quarter of 2025.

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Boohoo says it needs to protect commercial position in Frasers spat

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Boohoo has hit back at Mike Ashley’s retail empire over demands to install the sportswear tycoon as chief executive, saying it needed to “protect its commercial position”.

The online fast-fashion retailer said on Friday that while it was willing to discuss board representation with Frasers Group, which owns about 27 per cent of Boohoo, it would require governance assurances to protect its interests because of Frasers’ stake in rival online retailer Asos. The company added it was given a 48-hour deadline to decide whether to appoint Ashley as CEO.

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Boohoo also called Frasers’ characterisation of its recent £222mn debt refinancing “inaccurate and unfair” after Frasers raised concerns over its terms in an open letter published on Thursday.

Ashley’s Frasers, formerly Sports Direct, built a stake in Boohoo last year and is its largest shareholder. The FTSE 100 company also owns a 23.6 per cent stake in Asos, which Boohoo said needed to be “carefully considered”, noting that both Frasers and Asos compete in similar markets to it.

“Before any appointment can be made, appropriate governance will be required to protect [Boohoo]’s commercial position and the interests of other shareholders,” the retailer said, adding it had received no such assurances from Frasers so far.

It comes after Boohoo said last week that chief executive John Lyttle would step down as it announced a strategic review of its operations that could lead to it being broken up, and the £222mn debt refinancing.

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Frasers accused Boohoo of mismanagement in the open letter, following a more than 90 per cent fall in the fast-fashion group’s shares since their peak in mid-2020, when it was buoyed by a pandemic-era online shopping boom.

Since then, Boohoo has grappled with more subdued demand and higher day-to-day costs from factors including returns, as well as increased competition from rivals such as Shein and Temu.

Frasers said Boohoo’s debt refinancing was “severely short-dated, seemingly more expensive than the previous financing arrangement and almost unquestionably leaves the company in a position of needing to undertake drastic corporate actions in order to repay the term loan due in 10 months”, which Boohoo rejected.

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It described the criticism as “inaccurate and unfair” and said it provided certainty for the company.

Boohoo is still considering a fuller response after Frasers called for an extraordinary general meeting with shareholders. 

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Exact date to turn on your heating named by thousands of households but waiting just seven days could save you £84

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Exact date to turn on your heating named by thousands of households but waiting just seven days could save you £84

THOUSANDS of households have named the date they are planning on turning their heating ahead of winter.

But, wait just a few days after this date and you could save yourself almost £100.

A new study has found households are holding off from turning their heating on

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A new study has found households are holding off from turning their heating onCredit: Getty

A study of 2,000 homeowners with central heating found that three quarters plan on waiting until October 31 to turn their radiators on.

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But, you could actually save yourself £84 if you waited just a week longer and turned it on on November 7.

That’s based on a household using a 24kW gas boiler for eight hours a day for seven days straight.

Of course, you could save more or less than this based on your usage, but it shows how delaying by just a week could be well worth it.

The study, carried out by utilita Energy also found that despite not having done so yet, 52% are looking forward to warming up their homes next week.

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To help them refrain from switching on their boiler, 60% have been layering up, while 24% have resorted to electric blankets.

But even throughout the coldest months, 57% claim they will only put the heating on ‘for an hour or two’ to minimise costs. 

What’s more, 45% plan on using an electric heater as well as their main central heating this winter, with 34% assuming it’s a cheaper option.

And 15% plan to completely replace the gas central heating with a portable electric heater – despite it costing three to four times more per hour, Utilita energy efficiency experts revealed.

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A spokesperson for the energy supplier, which commissioned the research, said: “The first time you turn on the heating in winter marks the true arrival of the colder months – filling your home with warmth and comfort. 

How to cut energy costs and get help with FOUR key household bills

“We hope this important heating behaviour study will help people to realise the false economy of using a portable electric heater to subsidise or replace gas central heating, and afford budgeting households as much as 75% more heat hours this winter.”

The study also found half of households claim to be confident in working out the cost of an electric heater versus gas central heating.

According to the OnePoll.com data, 59% financially prepare for the rise in energy spend when it reaches the colder months, and the heating needs to come on. 

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Although 76% admit they will reach for the thermostat at the first sign of feeling uncomfortable or cold and 27% give into requests from other household members.

More than half (54%) will be prompted by a drop in the outside temperature, with it reaching an average of nine degrees Celsius before considering igniting up the boiler.

The living room is typically the room that gets heated up (33%), but 26% choose to turn the heating on throughout the entire house.

The Utilita Energy spokesperson added: “When comparing electric heaters to central heating, it’s important to consider both cost and comfort.

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 “While electric heaters can offer quick, localised warmth and are ideal for heating individual rooms, central heating provides consistent, zonal heating that’s far better for those on a budget.”

How to save money on your heating

There are countless ways you can save money on your heating bill this winter.

Blocking draughts in your home can easily save you £40 a year, according to the Energy Saving Trust.

Draught excluders typically cost around £20 to £40, but you can also use your own items laying about the house.

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You can use radiator foil, which you put behind the appliances to reflect heat back into the room too.

You can get a roll of the handy stuff in Screwfix for just £7.51.

Heat activated fans can be placed on wood burners and even certain types of gas fire to throw heat into the main part of the room too.

You can pick these up from the likes of B&Q for as little as £15.

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What energy bill help is available?

There’s a number of different ways to get help paying your energy bills if you’re struggling to get by.

If you fall into debt, you can always approach your supplier to see if they can put you on a repayment plan before putting you on a prepayment meter.

This involves paying off what you owe in instalments over a set period.

If your supplier offers you a repayment plan you don’t think you can afford, speak to them again to see if you can negotiate a better deal.

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Several energy firms have grant schemes available to customers struggling to cover their bills.

But eligibility criteria vary depending on the supplier and the amount you can get depends on your financial circumstances.

For example, British Gas or Scottish Gas customers struggling to pay their energy bills can get grants worth up to £2,000.

British Gas also offers help via its British Gas Energy Trust and Individuals Family Fund.

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You don’t need to be a British Gas customer to apply for the second fund.

EDF, E.ON, Octopus Energy and Scottish Power all offer grants to struggling customers too.

Thousands of vulnerable households are missing out on extra help and protections by not signing up to the Priority Services Register (PSR).

The service helps support vulnerable households, such as those who are elderly or ill, and some of the perks include being given advance warning of blackouts, free gas safety checks and extra support if you’re struggling.

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Get in touch with your energy firm to see if you can apply.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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Time to Hit Buy on These 2 Software Stocks, Says Daniel Ives

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Time to Hit Buy on These 2 Software Stocks, Says Daniel Ives


It’s no secret that tech stocks have been powering the market gains over the past few years, and software stocks were among the biggest drivers of this growth.

Multiple factors are propelling the software industry forward, such as the rapid advancement of AI technology, high demand for IT solutions, and the ongoing expansion of the global digital economy.

Wedbush tech expert Daniel Ives has been watching the tech industry, and his take on it points to continued strength supported by AI and cloud expansion.

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“Solid enterprise spending, digital advertising rebound, and the AI Revolution will drive tech stocks higher into year-end in our view,” Ives opined. “We believe 70% of global workloads will be on the cloud by the end of 2025, up from less than 50% today.”

Keeping that in mind, Ives goes on to add that the time has come to hit buy on two software stocks. They may not be household names, but according to the TipRanks data, both stocks are Buy-rated – and Ives sees significantly more upside to each than the consensus on the Street. Let’s take a closer look.

Couchbase (BASE)

We’ll start with Couchbase, a modern database platform provider that offers users and developers everything they need to support a wide range of applications – from cloud, to edge, to AI. Couchbase bills itself as a one-stop-shop for data developers and architects, making its services available through its powerful database-as-a-service platform, Capella. Organizations using the service can quickly create applications and services that deliver premium customer experiences, giving top-end performance at affordable prices.

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The Capella platform brings the popular as-a-service subscription model to the database industry. The company can support database services for a wide range of AI applications, including the latest gen-AI tech, as well as database search, mobile access, and analytic functions. Customers can also choose self-managed services through Couchbase’s servers, with on-premises management for both multicloud and community apps.

Couchbase’s database service has found success in a wide range of fields, including the gaming, healthcare, entertainment, retail, travel, and utility sectors. The company’s customer base includes such major names as Verizon, UPS, Walmart, Cisco, Comcast, GE, and PayPal.

Turning to the financial results, we see that Couchbase reported its fiscal 2Q25 figures at the start of last month. The top line of $51.6 million was up almost 20% year-over-year and came in just over the forecast, beating expectations by nearly a half-million dollars. At the bottom line, the company ran a net loss of 6 cents per share in non-GAAP measures, but that was 3 cents per share better than had been anticipated.

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Choo-Choo-Choose a Greener Travel Gift: Traingift Rolls into Town

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Choo-Choo-Choose a Greener Travel Gift: Traingift Rolls into Town

Amsterdam, October 2024 – Say goodbye to cramped airplane seats and endless airport lines. Europe’s best cities are just a train ride away, and now, with Traingift, they’re just a gift card away too.

Experiencegift, the company behind the world’s leading travel gifting brands Flightgift, Hotelgift, and Activitygift, is excited to announce the launch of its newest innovation: Traingift. Founded by entrepreneurs Loes Daniels and Jorik Schröder, Experiencegift launches the first gift card for train journeys across Europe.

“As a frequent traveler myself, I understand the growing appeal of train travel over flying or driving. It’s convenient, flexible, eco-friendly, and you can admire the scenery while staying connected to work or family,” said Loes Daniels, co-founder of Experiencegift. “With Traingift, we’re responding to this rising trend and offering the world a way to gift memorable train journeys. I’ve personally enjoyed the ease of traveling by train between cities like Amsterdam, Paris, and London, and I believe our customers will appreciate this experience as well.”

Traingift provides access to Europe’s largest rail networks, covering over 25,000 destinations in 33+ countries, from high-speed Eurostar trains to scenic Eurail and Interrail passes. Traingift recipients can redeem their cards for one-way trips or unlimited travel passes, opening the door to cities like Paris, Munich, Milan, and more. By partnering with leading rail networks such as Deutsche Bahn, Trenitalia, and Eurostar, Traingift ensures a wide range of options, whether for business travelers, vacationers, or eco-conscious explorers.

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Available in multiple languages and 15 currencies, Traingift is designed to be as flexible as possible, appealing to customers worldwide. Gift cards are available as a premium physical gift voucher, featuring a custom image and text printed in high-quality photo resolution. Alternatively, for a quicker option, the gift can be sent digitally as a PDF or eGift, perfect for last-minute gifting.

“We believe in experiences over things. That’s why we created Traingift, to make gifting train travel as exciting and accessible as possible,” added Loes. “Train travel is sustainable, scenic, and stress-free, and we’re excited to offer this new gift card for people to experience Europe.”

Jorik believes this new gift card perfectly fits the current shift towards more sustainable, experience-focused travel options. “More people are opting for train travel because it’s greener, and it’s more convenient than flying. I have friends who’ve even given up flying entirely in favor of train travel. With Traingift, we’re offering the ultimate gift for the conscious traveler—something that allows people to create unforgettable experiences while reducing their carbon footprint.”

Loes and Jorik’s entrepreneurial journey hasn’t been without its challenges. Starting with just two people, they have grown Experiencegift to a team of 70 colleagues and offices in New York, London, Amsterdam, and Athens. “Building a company from the ground up is no small feat,” shared Jorik. “We faced numerous hurdles along the way, including the unprecedented challenges to the travel industry posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite these obstacles, we remained committed to innovation and adaptability. During this time, we managed to improve our operations and grow our gift card brands to the successful company we are today.”

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The launch of Traingift is a major step forward for Experiencegift, whose other brands have seen rapid global growth. The company is now active in over 50 countries and has earned a reputation for being innovative, with a strong focus on providing a wide range of redemption options and a personalized gift experience.

Traingift is now available for purchase at www.traingift.com.

About Experiencegift

Founded by Loes Daniels and Jorik Schröder, Experiencegift is a global leader in experience gift cards. With brands like Hotelgift, Flightgift, Activitygift, and now Traingift, they empower people to gift meaningful experiences across the world. The company operates in more than 50 countries and has earned multiple awards, including the top prize in the Deloitte Fast 50 and a nomination for EY Entrepreneur of the Year.

In addition to growing Experiencegift, Loes Daniels is passionate about empowering other women to think big and be ambitious. She founded BusinessWomen to inspire and support women in pursuing their professional dreams.

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