Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Sochi, Russia on September 4, 2023. Their main objective was to revive the stalled Ukrainian grain deal. The deal, brokered by Turkey and the UN, was first signed in July 2022. It collapsed on July 17, 2023 when Russia pulled out, citing unfulfilled promises on its own agricultural exports.

Erdoğan aims to maintain his international standing and address domestic pressures, both of which were bolstered by the deal’s initial success. Reviving it would also demonstrate Turkey’s diplomatic finesse as it navigates complex alliances between Russia and NATO.

The Black Sea’s fragile lifeline

Russia’s control of Ukrainian Black Sea ports during the war threatened a global food crisis. The July 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) offered a precarious solution, allowing Ukrainian grain exports to resume. In exchange, the UN pledged to facilitate Russian agricultural exports hampered by Western sanctions.

However, the deal’s fate remained precarious. Russia’s suspension shattered hopes of stability. The nation threatened the Black Sea as a potential warzone and demanded relaxed sanctions. Simultaneously, Russian forces maintained their assault on Ukrainian ports through missile and drone strikes. They escalated the threat by declaring all vessels in the Black Sea as potential military targets. In response, Ukraine established a humanitarian corridor along the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, albeit at the cost of increased expense and travel time.

Putin’s conditional offer for revival — full removal of restrictions on Russian agricultural exports — met with skepticism. Though Western critics identify Russia’s withdrawal as a contributor to the food crisis, Putin countered them by asserting that the issue had deeper roots. Putin blames the West for the global food crisis and denies responsibility for the grain deal collapse.

Despite the cautious optimism spurred by UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ proposal, the BSGI remains entangled in an intractable impasse. His proposal, which included SWIFT access for a subsidiary of Russia’s Agricultural Bank, aimed to address Russia’s concerns. It did not suffice. Negotiations have yielded no significant breakthroughs, leaving the precarious lifeline for global food security suspended in limbo. The ramifications of this stagnation are stark: A deepening global food crisis threatens famine in vulnerable regions, while rising food prices further strain already burdened economies.

Deflecting dissent with diplomacy: Erdoğan’s high-stakes of BSGI

The BSGI garnered Erdoğan considerable international acclaim. A Pew Research Center poll conducted across 17 countries revealed that 67% viewed Turkey’s role in the deal positively. However, this past acclaim faces the countervailing pressure of recent UN Security Council criticism stemming from clashes in Cyprus. The Council highlighted rising regional tensions while condemning an assault by Turkish Cypriot security forces on UN Peacekeeping Force members. This criticism underscores the urgency for Erdoğan to secure a diplomatic win, a potential avenue offered by reviving the BSGI.

Reviving the grain deal could boost Erdoğan’s image by countering criticism and showcasing his dedication to dialogue, cooperation and global food security. This aligns perfectly with Turkey’s role as a guarantor power in Cyprus and its support for a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation. It would not only solidify past success but also propel Erdoğan back into the international spotlight.

Domestically, Turkey faces economic challenges, with inflation exceeding 64% in January 2024. This has eroded the purchasing power and living standards of millions of Turks, especially the working and lower middle classes who form the core of Erdoğan’s support base. The high inflation has also come with a weak currency, a large current account deficit, a low level of foreign exchange reserves and a high level of external debt.

These economic woes have taken a toll on Erdoğan’s popularity and approval ratings, which dipped below 40%. Erdoğan, who has been in power since 2003, faces a formidable challenge from a united opposition bloc. The opposition has accused Erdoğan of mismanaging the economy, undermining democracy, violating human rights and pursuing an adventurous foreign policy. Erdoğan has dismissed these criticisms as part of a foreign-backed conspiracy to overthrow him and weaken Turkey.

A successful revival of the grain deal with Russia could deflect attention from these domestic issues and potentially boost Erdoğan’s domestic standing. He could claim that he has delivered a diplomatic victory for Turkey and its allies and secured the country’s food security and economic interests. He could also argue that he has restored Turkey’s regional role and influence. 

NATO, neutrality and the S-400: Can Erdoğan reconcile alliance commitments?

Erdoğan seeks to improve relations with Russia, which are strained by their divergent interests and interventions in Syria, Libya and the Caucasus. In these three conflicts, Russia and Turkey have backed opposing sides. Russia backs the Assad Regime in Syria, the eastern-based commander Khalifa Haftar in Libya and has a defense pact with Armenia in the Caucasus. Conversely, Turkey backs the rebel groups in Syria, the UN-recognized Government of National Accord in Libya and has close ties with Azerbaijan in the Caucasus. These rivalries create tensions and mistrust between the Turkish and Russian capitals of Ankara and Moscow, respectively, threatening to escalate into wider regional wars.

Erdoğan believes that by engaging in dialogue and cooperation with Russia, he can manage these conflicts and prevent them from spiraling out of control. He hopes to find common ground and mutual benefits with Moscow on other issues, such as trade, energy and security. Erdoğan sees Russia as a potential partner and a counterweight to the West.

However, Turkey’s delicate balancing act between its NATO commitments and its growing partnership with Russia, exemplified by the 2017 purchase of the S-400 missile system, further complicates the situation. The S-400’s incompatibility with NATO systems and possible security threats raise concerns among allies. It led to US warnings as well as potential Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions and exclusion from the F-35 program — a program that leads the international distribution of F-35 Lightning II fighter jets. Erdoğan defends the purchase as a sovereign decision and emphasizes the need for these weapons for Turkey’s defense and autonomy. At the same time, however, he seeks to maintain cordial relations with Russia despite regional differences.

A successful BSGI revival could demonstrate Turkey’s diplomatic prowess and reaffirm its neutrality in the current conflict. This would potentially ease tensions within NATO. Erdoğan could claim he has managed to balance the interests and expectations of both Russia and NATO, without compromising Turkey’s alliance loyalty or strategic autonomy. He could stress that the deal is not aimed at undermining NATO’s cohesion or credibility, but rather at enhancing its security and stability through cooperation.

Leveraging the BSGI for trade, security and global impact

The BSGI transcends its diplomatic significance for Erdoğan and Turkey, presenting a lucrative economic opportunity. By facilitating the transit of Ukrainian grain through the Turkish Straits, the BSGI unlocks new markets for Turkish goods. Particularly, this includes agricultural products that are in high demand internationally. Turkish Statistical Institute data indicates a 12% year-on-year increase in agricultural exports to $25.3 billion in 2022. 

Moreover, the BSGI strengthens Turkey’s ties with key trade partners in Africa and the Middle East. These regions are heavily reliant on Ukrainian grain for food security. International Grains Council data highlights Ukraine’s position as the world’s third-largest wheat and corn exporter; its primary markets include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. These nations have also been among Turkey’s top trading partners, totalling $32.4 billion in 2022. The BSGI could solidify Turkey’s role as a reliable and strategic partner for these countries, even positioning them as a potential mediator for regional conflicts.

Beyond economics, the BSGI carries humanitarian significance. It potentially mitigates the global food crisis exacerbated by the Ukraine war. World Bank reports document disrupted agricultural production and distribution, leading to food shortages, price hikes and rising poverty. Their estimates warn of an additional 263 million people facing food insecurity due to the conflict, impacting not only neighboring countries but also regions across Europe, Asia and Africa. Reviving the BSGI allows Erdoğan to showcase his commitment to global food security efforts, positioning Turkey as a key player in addressing one of the 21st century’s most pressing challenges.

[Ali Omar Forozish and Lee Thompson-Kolar edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

This article is part of the Financial Times free schools access programme. Details/registration here.

Recommended FT articles and tasks picked by our teacher advisers to help improve study, exam and interview success.

UK POLITICS

Democracy and participation

Citizens’ assemblies could help repair our toxic political culture

No, British democracy isn’t safer than America’s

New election laws will be a defining test of Rishi Sunak’s integrity

The Tories must reverse course on voter IDs

UK pressure groups

Keir Starmer pledges free vote on legalising assisted dying in England

Green groups lambast plan to boost housebuilding by ditching English waterway protections

Extinction Rebellion abandons disruptive climate protests in UK

Injunction granted against UK climate protesters

Greensill affair exposes opaque UK lobbying rules

XR sees funding return as it tries to find its feet back on streets

Rights in the UK

Coronation day arrests prompt fears for UK civil liberties

UK plans to overhaul human rights law come under fire

UK to inject ‘common sense’ into human rights legislation

Retired judge to lead review into UK human rights laws

Contrasting police methods during lockdown raise liberty fears 

Established UK political parties:

· General

Are Labour and the Conservatives adopting ‘Heevesian’ economics?

Sunak’s instincts are leading the Tories to ever worse defeat

Rishi Sunak suffers Tory backlash as MPs back legislation to ban smoking

Labour and Tories fall prey to optimism on tax and spend

Mandates are overrated — Keir Starmer just needs the win

Rishi Sunak seeks to harvest political advantage with autumn poll strategy

Rishi Sunak faces migration dilemma as Tory civil war worsens

A hefty shock awaits those who see little difference between Starmer and Sunak

It’s ‘nerd vs nerd’ as British politics returns to normal

Property donors provide one-quarter of funds given to Tory party

Political party platforms 

· Conservative party

Rishi Sunak’s premiership under scrutiny at fractious Tory conference

How the Thatcherites lost their Brexit dream and their party

Boris Johnson plan to fund health and social care lifts UK tax burden to 70-year high

Rishi Sunak’s un-Tory Budget confounds assumptions once again

Will Boris Johnson reverse Thatcherism?

· Labour party

Keir Starmer hands Blairite MPs key roles in Labour reshuffle

Labour stands for ‘sound money’, Starmer to tell party conference

Keir Starmer defends Tony Blair as Labour continues shift to centre

The UK approach to Northern Ireland is one of casual political vandalism

· Liberal Democrat Party

Lib Dems to press Rachel Reeves to raise taxes on banks and wealthy

Ed Davey calls on Lib Dems to ‘wake up and smell the coffee’ after becoming leader’

Emerging/minor UK parties

The unravelling of the Scottish National party

Reform’s success is not the real story of the by-elections

SNP backs revised plan for Scottish independence referendum

Britain’s tiny Tea Party casts a big shadow

Scotland’s incoming first minister has a daunting in-tray

Nicola Sturgeon had run out of ideas on Scottish independence

How much of a threat is Reform UK to the Tories?

UK Electoral systems

The new volatility in British politics

Brace for the most distorted election result in British history

Keir Starmer under pressure from within Labour party to back UK electoral reform

Labour and Lib Dems in informal ‘non-aggression’ pact before next UK election

Britain’s left needs more than informal pacts

SNP announces power-sharing deal with Scottish Greens

Lib Dems fear promise to reverse Brexit has backfired 

UK elections and referendums

Keir Starmer sets out plans to raise £8.6bn in tax at Labour manifesto launch

A last gamble for a UK prime minister who has run out of road

Sunak’s Conservatives are betting against the future

Boris Johnson rejects SNP call for independence referendum

Boris Johnson’s big win with Conservatives 

UK voting behaviour and media

This will be the UK’s first post-TV election

Spare us the sanctimony on fit and proper media owners

Labour lets itself dream of power after by-election triumphs

How education became the new faultline in British politics

Why are women voters moving to the left?

Johnson benefits from voters’ lack of trust 

UK GOVERNMENT

UK constitution

Labour explores replacing House of Lords with elected chamber

How will King Charles influence politics in the UK?

New bill of rights would allow UK courts to diverge from ECHR rulings

The UK’s flexible constitution has had its day

Making UK governance fit for the future

The UK’s constitution is not working

British politics will stay sleazy until the Lords is reformed

Devolution

N Ireland executive could return this weekend after DUP agrees landmark deal

English devolution ‘comes of age’ as Manchester takes on the buses

Hunt examines new fiscal powers for mayors in England

Sunak in constitutional clash with Sturgeon over gender reform bill

Northern Ireland’s DUP rejects appeal to join power-sharing executive

Gove calls for devolution of control of business rates to England’s mayors

Is the UK heading for break-up?

Brexit’s second act may break the UK union

England’s metro mayors find new platform during Covid crisis

Nations of UK stay in lockdown lockstep despite devolution

Parliament and executive

Keir Starmer’s win on winter fuel cut may prove temporary reprieve

Plans to criminalise UK rough sleepers dropped after backlash

House of Lords inflicts fresh defeats on Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill

Rwanda bill rebellion takes heavy toll on Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak secures win in Rwanda asylum vote

Why does it matter if a PM lies to Parliament?

The new ‘government by diktat’ bypasses parliament altogether

Boris Johnson must heed the furore around standards

Government in U-turn on dumping sewage in English rivers

UK government must loosen its grip on parliamentary process

Johnson suffers big Tory revolt as MPs approve England’s Covid curbs

Johnson suffers heavy Lords defeat as senior Tories attack Brexit law

UK establishment criticised for dropping the ball on Kremlin threat

A Boris Johnson government requires more checks on power

PM and executive

Rishi Sunak faces intractable problems on first anniversary as prime minister

Rishi Sunak’s immigration conundrum

Nadhim Zahawi sacked as Tory party chair over his tax affairs

The inside story of Liz Truss’s disastrous 44 days in office

Truss finally admits defeat on tax benefit for the wealth

Liz Truss installs close allies in top cabinet jobs

Boris Johnson: the entertainer who tried to defy political gravity

How will Boris Johnson govern after his leadership challenge?

Boris Johnson’s Downing Street shake-up needs to succeed — and fast

Boris Johnson recasts UK government with big cabinet shake-up

Matt Hancock resigns as UK health secretary

The UK Prime Minister and the Coronavirus Crisis

UK Supreme Court

Sunak pledges to change the law after Supreme Court rules against Rwanda policy

UK Supreme Court begins hearing on Scottish independence

Shamima Begum cannot return to UK for citizenship battle, Supreme Court rules

Parliament the winner in prorogation case, say lawyers 

European Union

What does Northern Ireland protocol bill do and why is it contentious?

The UK approach to Northern Ireland is one of casual political vandalism

GOVERNMENT AND POLITICS OF THE USA

US constitution and federalism

Donald Trump asks US Supreme Court to put presidential immunity ruling on hold

Lawsuit seeks to declare Donald Trump’s presidential bid unconstitutional

Will America tear itself apart?

Trump claims ‘total’ authority as he considers easing lockdown

Donald Trump’s chaotic coronavirus crisis

US Congress

US Senate passes $95bn bill including aid for Ukraine

Democrats expand Senate majority after winning Georgia run-off

‘A slow, painful death’: Biden’s domestic agenda withers as he jets abroad

Senate approves Joe Biden’s $1.9tn stimulus legislation

US Presidency

Joe Biden’s high-stakes election gamble

Brown-Jackson’s confirmation offers much-needed ray of light for Biden

Biden’s disappointing first year in office

Trump sues to prevent release of presidential records related to Capitol riot

Joe Biden’s quietly revolutionary first 100 days

Donald Trump’s weaponised lies blew up in his face

Donald Trump’s weaponised lies blew up in his face

Donald Trump’s pardoning spree tests boundaries of authority

Trump’s big flaw: terrible hiring

Donald Trump’s presidency continues its bizarre degeneration 

US Supreme Court and civil rights

Supreme Court gives Donald Trump’s White House bid another shot of momentum

Joe Biden opens green card path to undocumented immigrant spouses of US citizens

US Supreme Court rejects challenge to top consumer finance agency

US Supreme Court curbs consideration of race in university admissions

Abortion law: Roe vs Wade and the US constitution

Abortion ruling shows growing might of US Supreme Court’s conservatives

Biden’s Supreme Court nominee emphasises ‘neutral’ approach to cases

US Supreme Court tilts to the right — but how far will it go?

Voting rights: the battleground that could determine the next US election

US Supreme Court rejects Trump-backed challenge to election

The US Supreme Court turns to the right

Ginsburg’s death sparks election battle over Supreme Court’

US Supreme Court refuses to bend to Trump’s will

US Supreme Court and civil rights

 Landmark US Supreme Court ruling protects LGBT rights at work

Behind the unjust agenda of America’s highest court

US electoral process

How close is the US presidential election race?

What’s next after Trump’s guilty verdict?

The Trump machine: the former president’s dash for campaign cash

Super Tuesday in charts: what the results reveal about Trump’s voters

Donald Trump’s big New Hampshire win hides White House electability issues

US election 2024: who are the Republican presidential candidates?

By the numbers: what we have learnt from the 2022 US midterm elections

The US midterm elections

Justin Amash heads towards third party US presidential run

Joe Biden’s surge poses threat to Bernie Sanders’ US primary hopes

Gerrymandering: America’s other border crisis

US political parties

Kamala Harris pitches for centre in first big TV interview as presidential candidate

Third-party candidates pose new threat to Biden re-election bid

‘People are frustrated’: Gaza war opens rift among US Democrats

The ungovernable Republicans: ‘Their goal is chaos’

Biden touts ‘Bidenomics’ as antidote to failed trickle-down policies

US Senate passes bill to end debt ceiling stand-off and avoid default

US-style conservatism offers only a dead end for British Tories

Ron DeSantis says more Ukraine aid not in ‘US vital national interests’

Joe Biden warns China over threats to US sovereignty in State of the Union address

Republicans focus on education in bid to win back suburban America

Liz Cheney launches blistering attack on fellow Republicans over Trump

 How far will US polarisation go?

US pressure groups/interest groups

NRA to press on with Houston conference despite Texas school shooting

US gun control activists hope this time will be different

Washington’s revolving door: can Trump staffers find lobbying jobs?

New York magazine says that its highly regarded Washington correspondent, Olivia Nuzzi, is on leave after disclosing that she had a personal relationship with a former reporting subject, violating the publication’s standards.

The newsletter Status, which broke the story, and The New York Times both cite unnamed sources in identifying Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the other person involved with Nuzzi. New York magazine and Nuzzi have not confirmed Kennedy’s involvement, and Kennedy said in a statement that he had only met her once.

It’s an explosive development for the magazine and Nuzzi, whose piece featuring an interview with Donald Trump, “Peering into Donald Trump’s Ear, and Soul,” was featured on its most recent cover.

In a note to readers published late Thursday, New York said that if it had been aware of the relationship, Nuzzi would not have been permitted to cover the presidential campaign.

New York said an internal review of her work has found no inaccuracies or evidence of bias, but that Nuzzi is on leave while a more thorough third-party review is undertaken.

“We regret this violation of our readers’ trust,” the magazine said, and a spokeswoman had no further comment. A spokesperson for Kennedy, who is married to the actress Cheryl Hines, did not immediately return a message from The Associated Press.

Nuzzi said in a statement to Status that in early 2024, the nature of some communication between herself and a former reporting subject turned personal.

“During that time, I did not directly report on the subject nor use them as a source,” she said. “The relationship was never physical but should have been disclosed to prevent the appearance of a conflict. I deeply regret not doing so immediately and apologize to those I’ve disappointed, especially my colleagues at New York.”

It was not immediately clear how and when Nuzzi’s bosses at the magazine became aware of the relationship.

Nuzzi wrote a story about Kennedy’s campaign that was published last November, “The Mind-Bending Politics of RFK Jr.’s Spoiler Campaign,” where she described a harrowing car ride and brief hike with Kennedy and his dogs while interviewing him.

His name came up in a March 2024 piece in The New York Times where Nuzzi, Frank Bruni and Joe Klein discussed the state of the campaign at the time. “We’re forgetting or purposefully ignoring something rather important about this election: It’s not a two-man race. It’s a three-man race,” Nuzzi said, noting that at the time Kennedy was “polling competitively.”

Status quoted a representative for Kennedy saying, “Mr. Kennedy only met Olivia Nuzzi once in her life for an interview she requested, which yielded a hit piece.”

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

This article is part of the Financial Times free schools access programme. Details/registration here.

Recommended FT articles and tasks have been picked by MRU’s Econ in the News to help in US high school economics, with suggestions on questions for student assignments, class activities and discussion.

Micro

Basic Economic Concepts

Economists are overly reliant on rules

The bitter lessons of Brexit

Are economists selfish? Not according to Monopoly

Behavioural economics
Luxury car sales plunge as buyers put off by South Korea’s neon green licence plates

Institutions, marginal thinking
Outlook. Baseball tries to beat the clock to appeal to younger fans

Incentives
Internet ratings get only three stars from me

Supply and Demand

Soaring olive oil prices hurt sales of ‘liquid gold’ in Mediterranean heartland

Coffee prices set to rise even higher, warns Italian roaster Lavazza

Orange juice crisis prompts search for alternative fruits

Wall Street turns to ‘solar grazing’ sheep in its push to go green

Legoland and Madame Tussauds owner to roll out surge pricing

Demand shifts, inflation
Introducing the ‘TSwift Lift’

Supply shifts
Russia bombs Ukraine grain silos in ‘barbarian’ attack on food supplies

Price controls
Europe’s airlines clash with Italian premier over planned fare cap

Price controls: elasticity
Pepsi revenue declines after US consumers flinch at higher prices

Taxes and Subsidies

Externalities
Why are caps now attached to bottles? Blame the EU

Denmark to charge farmers €100 a cow in first carbon tax on agriculture

The hidden cost of your supermarket salmon

‘Easier than pensions’: why electric cars are the hot company perk

Ursula von der Leyen calls on EU to subsidise defence production

Video: Could a tax curb meat’s health and environmental problems?

It is time to fix Britain’s broken tax system

Trade and Specialization

How national security has transformed economic policy

EU to hit Chinese electric cars with tariffs of up to 48%

International trade
US sharply raises tariffs on Chinese EVs and semiconductor imports

Are there any steaks left to be discovered?

What the birth of the spreadsheet can teach us about generative AI

Martin Wolf: the world economy’s story remains one of integration

The bitter lessons of Brexit

Comparative advantage, specialization
Adam Posen: ‘Russia and North Korea worked hard to be self-sufficient, it has not turned out well for them’

Costs of Production and Competition

Primacy in pickleball could push Asics over the ‘funish’ line

How hardware is (still) eating the world

Monopolistic competition
Why United Airlines’ huge bet on Newark airport is not paying off 

Amazon & the FTC

Externalities 

The environmental cost of AI

It’s up to governments to declutter space

UK set to push back new recycling scheme amid industry concerns

Macro

Economic Indicators

US economy is heading for soft landing, FT survey says

What burger flipping tells you about the US economy

Chocolate lovers given taste of inflation as Freddo frog prices jump

Markets slash bets on rate cuts after US inflation rises to 3.5%

European Central Bank holds interest rates at 4% in contested decision

US inflation eases to 2.4%, according to Federal Reserve’s target index

UK economy slipped into recession in 2023

Companies’ reluctance to roll back price rises poses US inflation risk

Is deflation really China’s next big export?

China’s deflation worsens as economic pressures mount

Should we believe Americans when they say the economy is bad?

Inflation

Global inflation tracker: see how your country compares on rising prices

UK inflation highest for mortgaged households

US inflation higher than expected in September

How the UK’s radical data revisions shattered its economic narrative

Just blaming wage growth for inflation is misleading and dangerous 

Beyoncé, statistical nightmare

Argentina risks hyperinflation after election giveaways and dollar pledge

Money and Banking

The meaning of the market sell-off

Did summer holidays make the market turmoil worse?

Monetary policy, inflation
US Fed will cut interest rates just once this year, say economists

Zimbabwe launches ‘gold-backed’ currency to replace collapsing dollar

Milei clashes with Argentine province over plans to issue its own currency

Companies rush to take advantage of sharp drop in borrowing costs

Payment systems
Federal Reserve launches real-time payments system in first big upgrade since 1970s

Government debt
US Treasury’s $1tn borrowing drive set to put banks under strain

Saving
Cash is no longer king in Japan as use of coins drops sharply

Fiscal Policy

Ireland’s luxury problem: what to do with its €8.6bn surplus

US faces Liz Truss-style market shock as debt soars, warns watchdog

Argentina’s Javier Milei says he doesn’t need congress to save the economy

How Germany’s ‘debt brake’ broke the budget

Housing policy
Economist Kate Barker: ‘To tackle inflation we should put taxes up for the better-off’

Monetary Policy

ECB to rely more on bank lending as it shrinks balance sheet

Switzerland makes surprise cut to interest rates

The risk of premature central bank celebrations on inflation

Is the last mile really the hardest?

Economists see Fed keeping rates at 22-year high until at least July

Yes, the US economy looks resilient now — but that may not last

When presidents lean on Fed chairs, everybody loses

Christine Lagarde: ‘I should have been bolder’

Can corporate America cope with its vast debt pile?

US Federal Reserve holds interest rates at 22-year high

Bets against shekel heap pressure on Israeli central bank

Adapting to a higher-for-longer world

Higher rates for longer are a good thing

ECB raises interest rates to all-time high

Central Banks debate: an ‘high for longer’ substitute for rate rises?

Economic fluctuations, monetary policy, inflation

Interview. John Williams: ‘I don’t have a recession in my forecast. I have pretty slow growth’

Economic Growth

Can Europe’s economy ever hope to rival the US again?

The weakest links in the global economy are on the mend

Declining fertility rates will transform global economy, report says

Long run growth

China’s leaders sweat over ‘difficult to heat’ economy

(Mis)remembering Chile’s military coup

It may not feel like it, but the planet has many reasons to be cheerful

How is the US economy managing to power ahead of Europe?

Nigeria’s economic reforms need to regain momentum

Obesity drugmaker’s expansion raises dominance worries for Denmark

Personal finance

How can we defuse the household debt time bomb?

Late payments rise on US loans tied to inflated pandemic credit scores

Consumers cut back on credit cards as repayment charges hit record high

An employee of California’s state fire protection agency has been arrested on suspicion of starting five forest fires in recent weeks, local officials have said.

Robert Hernandez, a 38-year-old apparatus engineer at Cal Fire, was charged with five counts of arson, and is due to appear in court on Tuesday.

He is suspected of igniting the blazes while off duty in three areas of northern California between 15 August and 14 September.

Thanks to the quick response by firefighters and local residents less than an acre (0.4 ha) of wildland was burned, the officials said.

“I am appalled to learn one of our employees would violate the public’s trust and attempt to tarnish the tireless work of the 12,000 women and men of Cal Fire,” agency chief Joe Tyler said.

Hernandez was arrested on Friday, and booked into Sonoma County Jail on Friday.

He is suspected of starting the five fires near the towns of Geyserville, Healdsburg and Windsor, some 56-62 miles (90-100km) north of San Francisco.

Apparatus engineers at Cal Fire are responsible for operating and maintaining fire engines and water tanks during emergency responses.

California has seen a number of severe wildfires during the summer, with nearly three times as much acreage burn as during all of 2023, the AP news agency reported.

On Tuesday a 34-year-old delivery driver pleaded not guilty to 11 arson-related crimes by prosecutors in southern California.

Justin Wayne Halstenberg is alleged to have started one major wildfire – dubbed the Line Fire – which burned through 61 square miles (158 square kilometers) of the San Bernardino mountains east of Los Angeles.

BBC

‘He knew where my parents lived’