COPS have arrested a man on suspicion of murder after a British woman died in a 30ft fall from her hotel balcony at a resort in Ibiza.

Robyn-Eve Maines, 24, was on holiday with her boyfriend when she fell from the second-floor apartment at the Rosamar Hotel on the Spanish party island.

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Merseyside Police said a 27-year-old man from London has been arrested on suspicion of murder and bailed.

The force said Robyn’s death was being treated as unexplained after reviewing material from Spanish police.

Her heartbroken family said: “We just want justice for Robyn.”

In a statement, they continued: “Our beautiful daughter Robyn Eve Maines was tragically taken away from us on September 25, 2022 at the Hotel Rosamar in Ibiza.

“Please if anyone saw or heard anything around this time can you please come forward and contact the police.”

Det Insp Phil Ryan said: “On the second anniversary I am appealing for any witnesses who may have been staying at the hotel in September 2022, and who are based in the UK, to come forward.

“Perhaps you return to this same hotel on the same date every year.

“Were you there in 2022 and did you see or hear anything, or do you have any other information which could assist with our investigation?”

“Robyn’s family have understandably been left devastated by her death and are still seeking answers as to what happened,” he added.

Robyn said she had flown out to Ibiza with her partner and friends on September 22, 2022.

Three days later her mother had received the “devastating phone call from the British consulate”.

She was pronounced dead at the scene after falling from the balcony just before 9am at the four-star adults-only hotel near the resort town of San Antonio.

Her boyfriend is understood to have been with her at the time and alerted hotel staff who rang emergency services.

Paramedics were scrambled to the hotel but were unable to save her life.

Her heartbroken relatives paid tribute to the trainee solicitor from Wallasey in Merseyside at the time.

Robyn-Eve’s younger brother Cam said: “She will forever be loved and remembered for the fantastic person she is.

“Our hearts bleed for the loss of someone so special. I love you big sis, always will.”

Victoria Carr, who knew Robyn-Eve, described her as a “firecracker, beautiful inside and out and so much fun to be around”.

Diane described her niece as “a beautiful person inside and out with everything to live for”.

Anyone who can help with the investigation is asked to DM @MerPolCC or call 101 quoting reference 22000713270. 

Information can also be passed anonymously via Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.

Brad Setser is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations

Everyone seems to want a sovereign wealth fund these days. Even countries that have more sovereign debt than sovereign wealth are hot on the idea.

It’s a hot topic. Over time, less and less of the growth of the foreign assets of the world’s governments has taken the form of traditional FX reserves, and more and more has taken the form of swelling sovereign wealth funds (see the chart below).

However, the SWF term has gotten stretched to the point where it has almost lost meaning. So here’s a short(ish) taxonomy of the different funds, what they do and where their money comes from, before turning to the suggestion that the UK and US should get their own SWFs.

The OG SWFs

The original sovereign wealth funds were basically mechanisms for investing excess foreign exchange reserves abroad in equities and other assets that were too volatile or illiquid for traditional foreign exchange reserve managers.

The bulk were set up by countries with huge oil revenues. The proceeds were initially simply parked at the central bank and basically managed as foreign exchange reserves — ie in safe fixed income like Treasuries and other high-grade debt.

That’s how Saudi Arabia long managed the more transparent portion of its oil wealth — the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority reported large deposits from the rest of the government that offset its large reserves — and how Russia generally managed its oil surplus.

But Abu Dhabi — the most oil-rich of the United Arab Emirates — Kuwait, and Qatar all set up “investment authorities” (ADIA, KIA, and QIA) to invest in equities, not just traditional reserve assets. Over time they started to invest in hedge funds and private equity, and became very big.

Norges Bank Investment Management, also fits this model. Norway found oil and gas after it was already fairly rich, and decided to channel almost all its energy income into an endowment managed by Norges Bank (this sovereign wealth fund is in effect a subdivision of the central bank). However, NBIM diverges from other similar hydrocarbon SWFs in its transparency, strict rules and avoidance of high-fee fund managers. It is in practice a giant index fund.

Singapore doesn’t have a lot of oil but it does intervene heavily in the foreign exchange market. That has allowed it to set up the Government Investment Corporation (GIC) with its excess foreign exchange reserves. Think of the Yale endowment model of investment, but for a country. The GIC now has so much money that it won’t disclose the amount.

Singapore continues to intervene so heavily in the foreign exchange market that it has transferred another $200bn to the GIC over the past few years, albeit with a bit more transparency than in the past.

There’s also a smattering of other smaller, resource-funded sovereign wealth funds, such as the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan/SOFAZ (which isn’t really a pure sovereign wealth fund, given its domestic activity) and Botswana’s Pula Fund, where the assets come from diamond rather than energy sales.

All told, “traditional” sovereign wealth funds likely have over $3tn in external assets, which is pretty significant relative to the world’s $12tn in traditional reserve assets.

SWFs with Chinese characteristics

China’s formal sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corporation (CIC), broadly follows the classic model. But the CIC is a SWF with many Chinese characteristics.

It was financed out of funds that were bought from the central bank using yuan, raised through a special bond issue that was bought by the state banks. Most of its external assets (reported to be around $318bn; see the “Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss” line on page 91 of its 2022 annual report) are invested in foreign equities and alternatives (it has a ton of private equity, see the reporting of MainFT itself).

But at times, it has dabbled in investments that support Xi Jinping’s policy objectives — for example, the Hong Kong-based Guoxin International Investment Co, which supports resource investment abroad. It’ also rumoured to have dabbled in supporting the domestic equity market at times as a part of the “national team” (it certainly can buy bank stocks).

Most importantly, the CIC bought (from China’s reserve manager) the stakes in the state banks that the People’s Bank of China received when its reserves were used as the “currency” of the initial recapitalisation of four of the big five state commercial banks. This, in fact, accounts for the majority of the CIC’s initial $200bn in seed capital. Those stakes are held by an entity that is fully controlled by the CIC — Central Huijin Investment — and now account for the bulk of its reported assets.

CIC is therefore probably best thought of as a bank holding company with a small traditional sovereign wealth attached to it. In fact, the CIC now also owns the “bad banks” that were set up to move the bad assets off state banks’ balance sheets prior to their recapitalisation with foreign exchange reserves. Red capitalism is full of ironies.

Amateurs often make the mistake of subtracting the CIC’s total reported assets — which include the $860bn (as of end 2022) stake in the state banks — from China’s reported reserves. That’s the wrong way to do the balance of payments maths. The right way is to add the CIC’s external assets to the State Administrator of Foreign Exchange’s reported reserves.

To make things more confusing, SAFE, China’s traditional reserve manager also invests a portion of its $3.2tn of foreign exchange in both equities and “alternatives”. As a result, some refer to its Hong Kong subsidiary, SAFE Investment Company Limited, as a sovereign wealth fund.

However, SAFE has used its reserves to recapitalise the policy banks (the Export-Import Bank of China and the China Development Bank) and thus created an entity — Buttonwood Investment — to manage that stake. It has also used reserves to capitalise some smaller Chinese SWFs that support the Belt and Road (The Silk Road Fund, the China-Africa Development Fund, the China-LAC Cooperation Fund, etc.).

Basically, China is so big, and the state so sprawling, that it ended up with multiple sovereign funds, almost all with Chinese characteristics.

Pensioner SWFs

There’s another type of sovereign wealth fund that has some of the attributes of a traditional one but typically isn’t funded out of reserve assets: sovereign pension funds.

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which reports to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, is the best example, followed closely by the Korean National Pension Service (NPS) which reports to the Ministry of Health and Welfare.

Some include the North American subnational state pensions funds and Australia’s superannuation funds in this category, but they are typically one step removed from state government, and they have clear offsetting liabilities and thus don’t have a large net worth.

These sovereign pension funds typically start by taking pension contributions and investing them in domestic assets. Think of the US payroll taxes that were invested in the Social Security Trust Fund (which itself only bought government bonds).

But at some point, the big government pension funds have started to invest in external assets — typically bread and butter foreign equity indices and foreign bond funds rather than the real estate and trophy assets bought by the Gulf.

The numbers are big, given their size and the large international allocations. About 50 per cent of GPIF’s assets are invested abroad, and Korea aims to bring the foreign allocation of the rapidly growing NPS to 60 per cent. That means the foreign portfolio of the GPIF is about $750bn, and the foreign portfolio of the NPS now tops $400bn.

These funds are interesting because they can have a large impact on the foreign exchange market. For example, a few years ago the Bank of Korea’s governor Rhee Chang-yong (correctly) worried that the steady outflow from the NPS was undermining the Bank of Korea’s effort to prop up the won back in the summer of 2022, and responded with an innovative swap facility. The Koreans now are taking additional steps to minimise the market impact of the $2-3bn a month in foreign exchange the NPS typically buys.

Strategic wealth funds

There’s a final type of fund, one that is becoming increasingly common — you might call them strategic wealth funds, domestic development funds, public investment funds or perhaps even national development banks.

These “sovereign wealth funds” primarily manage the state’s domestic investments and typically invest in projects judged to be strategic for a country’s development plans (eg the “Saudi Vision 2030”).

One example is Singapore’s Temasek, which was set up to manage Singapore’s state-owned enterprises (for example, Singapore Airlines). However, lines get blurred: Singapore didn’t need to use the proceeds of the privatisation of many state firms to support its budget, so Temasek started investing abroad, just like a traditional sovereign wealth fund.

The Saudi Public Investment Fund is another good example. The PIF got its initial funding from Saudi Arabia’s foreign exchange reserves (it has received at least $40bn), but later on it received the proceeds from listing Saudi Aramco and money from PIF’s own external borrowing. The PIF’s 12 per cent stake in Saudi Aramco also gives it a new means of raising more funds for investment, but selling its stake would mean trading future income for cash now.

The PIF famously has taken some big risks abroad — sometimes in companies that agree to invest in Saudi Arabia in return for a PIF investment, and sometimes in companies that the Saudis want to court for other reasons (Jared Kushner’s fund for example).

But PIF also invests heavily in purely domestic projects, particularly those that have the personal backing of Mohammed bin Salman and play a part in the Saudi 2030 Vision. MainFT has done some very good reporting here as well — notably highlighting how the PIF is pushing into sectors traditionally controlled by Saudi business families, as MBS considers state capitalism a means of modernising Saudi business culture.

The United Arab Emirates has its share of sovereign wealth funds in this tradition as well — Mubadala, the Royal Group (which controls IHC), ADQ (which is building a new city in Egypt), the Investment Corporation of Dubai and the like. Many of these funds blur the line between domestic and foreign investment.

The Turkey Wealth Fund (TVF) received the government’s stake in number of domestic companies (the state banks, Turkcell etc) and calls itself an “asset-backed” development fund. It raised some more funds when it sold 10 per cent of the Istanbul Stock Exchange to the QIA in 2020, and a dollar bond earlier this year, leading to quips that it is Turkey’s sovereign debt fund.

Ethiopia’s sovereign wealth fund is similar. As its name implies, the Ethiopia Investment Holdings serves as the holding vehicle for a lot of state assets — Ethiopian Airlines, a big local bank, local sugar refiners and an apparently profitable spirits distillery. It also aspires to be a conduit for Gulf funds looking to invest across the Red Sea.

Anglo “wealth” funds?

These models don’t really work for the US or the UK, however. The US doesn’t have a tradition of public ownership, and the UK sold its national champions a long time ago. Both have twin budget and current account deficits, so there are no surplus to stash away either.

The US could potentially sell off the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to fund a sovereign fund, but that goes against the Biden Administration’s (correct, IMO) recognition that the salt caverns are in fact a critical strategic asset. There are substantial economic (and financial) returns from the ability of the US to use its immense storage capacity to buy low and sell high and stabilise such a crucial market.

Of course, both the US and UK could sell a bit of debt to fund strategic investment funds. After all, not all public investment funds originate out of foreign exchange reserves. If the returns are greater than the cost of borrowing it can make sense, at least in theory.

Indeed, the most relevant model may come from a country that prides itself on its distinction from “les Anglo-Saxons.”

France runs persistent budget and current account deficits but still has a long-established de facto sovereign wealth fund, the Caisse des dépôts et consignations. And the French government has a tradition of investing in strategic sectors. Indeed, the history of France’s climate-critical nuclear sector shows that state-backed engineering projects can succeed even in a democracy (though there are obviously also plenty of cautionary tales).

At least in the US, the creation of a strategic public investment fund shouldn’t be ruled out. In many respects, having some kind of vehicle like this makes sense. In fact, it might even have been helpful in the past.

For example, it wouldn’t have been crazy for the US to have gotten some warrants in return for the $465mn 2010 loan that helped Tesla finance its initial transition from making a few sports cars into manufacturing sedans (the model S). The loan was repaid early in 2013, but the US government didn’t get to benefit from Tesla’s IPO, or its ca 380x growth in market value since then (which could in theory alone have capitalised a US SWF).

These days the US government provides lots of direct grants and loan guarantees (for example, to support domestic semiconductor investments), but it doesn’t have a tradition of getting potentially valuable upside exposure in exchange. The US did get warrants for its investments in the big US banks through the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), which generally proved valuable. It should probably do so more often, especially if it more openly embraces a more active industrial policy.

However, a clean and robust governance structure will obviously be essential for any state fund designed to invest in strategic domestic sectors. The temptations for misuse are enormous. The classic SWFs generally originated in autocracies, and any British or American ones shouldn’t be reliant on a benign king or queen.

In this In Conversation With… episode, Kimberley Dondo chats with Rory Albon, founder of Albon Financial Planning. Rory shares his journey to launch his firm and his approach to investment optimisation, retirement planning, and financial well-being. He offers insights into balancing saving and investing, managing tax efficiency, and safeguarding assets through tailored insurance solutions. Rory also discusses his vision for his firm’s future and offers invaluable advice for fellow financial advisers looking to start their businesses. Tune in now:

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer made an embarrassing gaffe during a speech at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool.

Sausages or Hostages?

While addressing the ongoing Middle East crisis, Starmer mistakenly called for the return of “Israeli sausages” held by Hamas, when he meant to refer to hostages.

The blunder occurred just before Starmer was set to attend the United Nations General Assembly, where he planned to push for a ceasefire.

Starmer quickly corrected himself, continuing his speech with a call for calm and de-escalation in the region.

“I once again urge restraint and de-escalation at the border between Lebanon and Israel,” he said. “We call again for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the return of the sausages—hostages—and a renewed commitment to the two-state solution, with a recognized Palestinian state alongside a safe and secure Israel.”

Good morning. Caroline Ellison, one of the leaders of defunct crypto exchange FTX, just got sentenced to two years in prison. Her former paramour and boss Sam Bankman-Fried is now reportedly bunking with P-Diddy. What celebrity should Ellison share a cell with? Email us with your choice: robert.armstrong@ft.com and aiden.reiter@ft.com.

A sovereign wealth fund for social security?

Both the Trump campaign and the Biden-Harris administration floated the notion of a US sovereign wealth fund a few weeks ago. This is generally a bad idea, for reasons that various people have pointed out. There is, however, one version of the idea that is at least intriguing.

For a sovereign wealth fund, one needs sovereign wealth — specifically surplus sovereign wealth. The US doesn’t have any. No large pools of excess foreign exchange reserves, like Singapore and China; no massive cash stream from natural gas and oil, like Norway and Saudi Arabia. The US government runs a massive deficit, and what oil money there is already goes to reduce it.

Lacking a surplus, other ways to raise a fund — issue debt, new taxes or tariffs — mostly just shift money around. The money that the government raises with taxes or borrowing would otherwise have been invested or spent somewhere else, and there would only be a net benefit if the government invested it in a more growth-friendly or strategic way than it would have been otherwise. Add to that political hurdles (Congress’s attitude towards a pile of money that sits outside its authority is easy to imagine), redundancy (federal programmes already target the sectors that a fund might support) and market impacts (crowding out, asset inflation). 

But there is one pool of American money that could benefit from higher returns. Social security, the US government pension plan for citizens, has a poor financial outlook. The payroll tax revenue that funds the plan once exceeded the plan’s outlays, and the excess cash was invested in Treasuries. But starting in 2021, outlays began to exceed inflows, and the Social Security Administration started to draw down the saved funds to make up the difference. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the reserves, currently around $2.7 trillion, will run out in 10 years.

Benefits will still be paid after the funds run out. But without a new source of funds, the total benefits paid to retirees would be 23 per cent lower at first, and would continue to decline as the US population ages. Republican Senator Bill Cassidy and independent Senator Angus King (and a motley crew of pundits and economists) have floated the idea of reinvesting the trust funds in the market to get a higher return. Now take the idea further: the US government could borrow at the long-term Treasury rate (4 per cent or so), and invest in US equities (6-7 per cent long-term average returns), with the proceeds of the arbitrage going to social security’s reserve funds. 

This would allow the US government to, in effect, create a sovereign wealth fund for a single, well-defined purpose: better returns for a better-funded pension plan. No strategic investments in emerging sectors of the sort Harris and Trump envisage. Just an arbitrage. 

Would it work? We made very simple models of three scenarios: (1) investing the current reserves in the market (not an arbitrage, per se); (2) investing the reserves and an additional $1.5tn dollars, raised through a bond issue; and (3) investing the current funds and borrowing whatever was needed to fund social security though 2055. We made some assumptions:

• We assumed funds invested in US markets return the historically normal 6.9 per cent a year, ignoring the (very real) possibility of wide variation around that mean over multiyear periods. We ignored, in other words, the political and financial repercussions of a possible market crash. 

• We assumed that government equity purchases would be tax-free when sold.

• We ignored the possibility that a massive new Treasury issue might drive yields down from current levels, and the possibility that a multitrillion government investment in US stock markets might inflate asset values and dilute returns.  

• We made the simplifying assumption that new money enters the fund at the beginning of the year and benefits are all paid out at the end.

On these assumptions, investing the current $2.7tn in reserves in stocks rather than Treasuries would extend the life of the reserves to 2040 — six additional years. On to scenario 2: the current reserves are topped up with $1.5tn in funds raised today at the current 30-year Treasury yield of just over 4 per cent, and new funds are left to compound until 2040, when they begin to be disbursed. This massive cash infusion stretches the fund only until 2046. That’s helpful, and makes use of the arbitrage between US government borrowing rates and average market returns. But that still only gives social security an extra 12 years from the most recent CBO projection, while growing the US debt by about 4 per cent and (for one year) doubling the annual budget deficit. 

For scenario 3, we calculated the amount of money that would fund social security in full by 2055. To do that, the US government would need to borrow and invest a little less than $2.4tn today.

Even under our extremely charitable assumptions, the extra returns offered by stock markets only do so much to solve social security’s funding problems. A massive infusion of cash is still required. The extra return would help, but would bring with it all the very real risks we have ignored in our toy model, political controversy, market distortion and financial volatility first among them.  

(Reiter and Armstrong)

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(Not) Made in America.

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THOUSANDS of households have been urged to check if a cost of living payment worth £50 has landed in their bank accounts today.

The money comes via the Household Support Fund (HSF) which is worth £421million in total.

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The fund has been split up between councils in England who are in charge of distributing their allocation before the end of September.

What you can get depends on where you live, as each local authority has been given its own unique amount.

Spelthorne Council, on the outskirts of West London, has been dishing out payments worth £50 to eligible households from July this year.

Anyone who qualifies for help will have received an email telling them.

You will only receive the payment if you were found to have been eligible after applying.

A maximum of one payment will be made per household and any payments are being made direct into bank accounts.

You will qualify for the £50 cash if you live in the Spelthorne area and receive one of the following benefits:

Spelthorne Council said further £50 payments are being made up until today, September 23.

The fund is often aimed at those who are already on low incomes and claiming help.

But you don’t always need to be on benefits or Universal Credit to be eligible for the cash.

If you’re eligible, you should be able to get free cash and vouchers to help pay for things like heating your home or your weekly grocery shop.

Check with your local council to find out what support is available by visiting https://www.gov.uk/find-local-council.

Can I get help if I don’t live in Spelthorne?

You might be able to. The £421million HSF pot has been shared between councils in England, but not equally.

Each local authority gets to decide its own eligibility criteria.

That means what you can get, and whether you qualify, depend on where you live.

Some councils started distributing help in April and have already depleted their share, so you might have missed out for now.

The Household Support Fund has been extended multiple times since its inception in October 2021, so it may be extended again though.

There are currently a number of councils offering help via the HSF.

Leicestershire Council is handing out payments worth £300 to thousands of households.

Households in Stockport can claim up to £315 worth of free supermarket vouchers to help with the cost of living.

Meanwhile, Wokingham Council is handing out grants worth up to £140.

If you want to check if you are eligible for help, contact your local council.

You can find what council area you fall under by using the Government’s council locator tool.

How else to get help with the cost of living

If you’re not eligible for the Household Support Fund in your local area, it’s worth checking if you qualify for benefits.

Recent figures from Policy in Practice reveal millions of people aren’t claiming the extra help when they could be.

In total, £23billion went unclaimed over the last financial year, with £8.3billion worth of Universal Credit not claimed for.

You can apply for benefits on the Government’s website.

It’s not just extra money you get from benefits either, with a number opening up additional perks.

How has the Household Support Fund evolved?

The Household Support Fund was first launched in October 2021 to help Brits pay their way through winter amid the cost of living crisis.

Councils up and down the country got a slice of the £421million funding available to dish out to Brits in need.

It was then extended for a second time in the 2022 Spring Budget and for a third time in October 2022 to help those on the lowest incomes with the rising cost of living.

The DWP then confirmed a fourth extension of the scheme through to March 31, 2024.

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Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt extended the HSF for the fifth time while delivering his Spring Budget on March 6, 2024.

Those on Universal Credit can get help covering the cost of childcare, for example, while those on Pension Credit can get a free TV licence.

Those on the Guarantee Credit element of Pension Credit also qualify for the Warm Home Discount – a £150 discount off energy bills once a year.

You may also be able to get grants to cover your energy bills if you’ve fallen into arrears.

A number of energy firms offer grants to struggling customers, including Scottish Power, Octopus Energy and British Gas.

If you’re struggling to pay your bills, speak to your supplier to see if they can give you any help.

Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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