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How News UK and Reach are using AI in the newsroom

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Just over a third of News UK staff are using AI tools on a daily basis, according to chief operating officer David Dinsmore.

Dinsmore said this appears to be in line with adoption of AI tools by the general public at work.

But he added: “I think what we’ve learned from that is we need to make it 75% pretty quickly.”

Dinsmore was speaking on a panel about “newsroom transformation in the age of AI” at Press Gazette’s Future of Media Technology Conference in London on 12 September.

He revealed The Times developed an AI-powered content management co-pilot to help with headline suggestions, summaries and some “light subbing” which has now been rolled out to The Sun and other News Corp titles.

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News UK‘s own “safe version” of ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini chatbots, called News Assist, has been made available to staff so they can input sensitive documents, and the company’s engineers have access to a new coding AI.

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Finally, Dinsmore said, the publisher has created News Transcribe, its own version of a speech-to-text tool like Otter or OpenAI’s Whisper.

David Dinsmore speaking on stage holding a microphone and gesturing with his other hand. Wearing a suit jacket, white shirt and lanyard
David Dinsmore at the Future of Media Technology Conference on 12 September 2024. Picture: ASV Photography for Press Gazette

Australian news website Crikey revealed earlier this month that News Corp had blocked the use of Otter.ai by journalists in the country.

Asked by Press Gazette why the company created its own tools – which are all based on existing large language models – rather than using what was already out there, Dinsmore said: “The reason you do some of your own iterations is security. I think there’s another well-known voice to text tool that may come out of China and you may not think that’s a great place to have all your information… But also we know our business best and I think we should be adapting these super-powerful models to superpower our products at the same time.”

Reach, the UK’s biggest commercial news publisher, rolled out the use of its own AI product at the start of this year.

Articles written for one Reach website can be “re-versioned” for any of its other brands in their own house style by Guten.

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This rewriting was previously done by Reach journalists who can now spend time writing original articles that are “distinct to their particular beat or their particular patch” instead.

Paul Rowland, editorial director of Reach’s Live network of sites, told the panel: “We know from referral behaviour that almost any story that exists on our network can drive enormous audience on almost any site on our network through third-party referrals at any time. What Guten does is allows us to do that at scale.”

He added: “It’s widely used across our organisation, it means that we can do things that we wouldn’t otherwise be able to do. It’s continuously learning so you edit within it and it means that… it continually becomes more focused and tuned to a particular house style. And we’re developing it all the time to increase its capacity and increase the language models as well that sit behind it.”

Paul Rowland sitting on stage speaking looking to his right holding a microphone and gesturing with his other hand. Also in shot are a woman in a pink suit (Nina Wright) and a man wearing black (Graham Page) looking at Rowland.
Paul Rowland, Reach editorial director, at the Future of Media Technology Conference on 12 September 2024. Picture: ASV Photography for Press Gazette

Reach also experimented with AI-produced bullet point summaries at the top of articles on its website Nottinghamshire Live.

Last year Swedish news website Aftonbladet found people were spending longer on articles with AI-generated summaries at the top. It appeared that people who got a more general understanding of an article upfront were more likely to read the whole text.

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Rowland said this was the hypothesis behind Reach’s experiment, which he said was “modestly successful” although they have not continued with it.

“I think certainly in terms of where we’re going next with that, with Guten and with versioning there’s also a big opportunity for us in repackaging particular stories and pieces of content into formats, summaries that are relevant, that are customised to different audiences, different age demographics, different platforms, so we can get multiple value out of one piece of content in a more efficient way.”

Are AI disclaimers always necessary?

Initially, Rowland said, every piece of content that went through Guten carried a disclaimer about its use of AI.

However he explained why this has changed: “My view is that that’s an AI-supported editing process. I think it’s different.

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“That’s a piece of content written by a human, reorganised by AI, re-edited by a human. I think that is an entirely different situation to a piece of content generated from scratch… from asking ChatGPT to write me a new story.

“And I think absolutely we would always, if we were doing that kind of thing, would absolutely, always declare that. But I think AI-supported editing is a different matter.”

Dinsmore agreed, saying that “the customer will decide” but that he is unlikely to care if a human or an AI has written a football match live blog, for example.

“Because all I want is that information as quickly as possible: ‘Man kicks ball, scores goal’. That’s it.

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“Whereas if it is an opinion piece or something like that, if that is written by a bot – although why you would get a bot to write it, I don’t know – then I would want to be told.”

Similarly Graham Page, head of media at consultancy Q5, suggested AI involvement should be labelled in a similar way to sponsored content.

He said the publishers with whom he works are looking at the use of generative AI for tasks like tagging, transcription and summarisation but that it’s largely still in A/B testing and not being seen by audiences.

Graham Page sitting on a stage with a blue backdrop. He's holding a microphone and speaking, wearing a black jumper and trousers.
Q5 head of media Graham Page at the Future of Media Technology Conference on 12 September 2024. Picture: ASV Photography for Press Gazette

“The more adventurous are starting to think about where they can take really structured data and turn it into a news article,” he said.

“So the obvious place to start is weather. You can take the weather data, turn it into a news article. Sport might be the next place to go, especially a data-heavy sport like cricket, [a journalist] might not want to sit through four days of test match, but they can create an article about it. And you can imagine other things if the data gets better… so could you take your council minutes if the data structure improves and turn those into news articles for local publishers.”

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AI and subscriptions: We are just getting started

Nina Wright, chair at Harmsworth Media which is the division of DMGT which runs the i and the New Scientist, said she is “particularly interested” in the potential of AI in subscriptions and personalisation: “helping to take a customer on a journey, serving them what they want, when they want it, how they want it”.

She said this could “help our businesses be smarter subscriptions businesses, and so I think we’re just starting to scrape the top of the iceberg on that”.

Nina Wright wearing glasses and a pink suit speaking while holding a microphone and looking at someone off-camera to her right. Another man sits beside her on stage listening.
Harmsworth Media chair Nina Wright at the Future of Media Technology Conference on 12 September 2024. Picture: ASV Photography for Press Gazette

Email pged@pressgazette.co.uk to point out mistakes, provide story tips or send in a letter for publication on our “Letters Page” blog

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SpaceX Launches Mission to Save Astronauts Stuck on ISS

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SpaceX Launches Mission to Save Astronauts Stuck on ISS

SpaceX’s Dragon capsule successfully launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida, on a mission to return astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to Earth after an extended stay on the International Space Station (ISS).

Should Have Been 8 Days

Their original mission, intended to last just eight days, was extended due to a malfunction in the Boeing Starliner, which returned empty as a precaution.

Accompanying the astronauts are NASA’s Nick Hague and Russian cosmonaut Alexander Gorbunov, who are delivering fresh supplies to Wilmore and Williams. They are expected to return home in February, according to Digi24.

The launch, originally scheduled for Thursday, was delayed due to Hurricane Helene, which caused widespread destruction in Florida and parts of Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina. SpaceX, founded by billionaire Elon Musk, has consistently transported crews to and from the ISS every six months.

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Interest rates too low for too long, says ex-Bank of England boss Lord Mervyn King

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Interest rates too low for too long, says ex-Bank of England boss Lord Mervyn King

Record high inflation was caused by the Bank of England keeping interest rates too low for too long, according to its former head.

Lord Mervyn King said inflation has now been tamed, but criticised all central banks for failing to act fast enough initially.

Speaking to BBC Radio Four’s Broadcasting House ahead of the Budget next month, he also said there are “bound to be some changes” to fiscal rules.

He criticised the previous government’s national insurance cut and said Labour should reverse it.

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Asked if the Bank of England kept rates “too low for too long”, Lord King said: “Yes, and that’s why we had inflation.”

“But they raised interest rates like all other central banks – it wasn’t just the Bank of England – and inflation is now back under control,” he added.

The crossbench peer added that interest rates were now “in the right ballpark”.

At its most recent meeting in September, the Bank chose to keep the base rate – which determines mortgage rates, credit card rates, and savings rates – at 5%.

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The next meeting will happen in November.

On the topic of the Budget, Lord King predicted “a number of half measures” because the government has committed itself both to public sector investment and to spending limits.

As such, he expected the government may chose to tweak those restrictions.

“There’s bound to be some change to the fiscal rules,” he said.

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“The ratio of national debt to national income is the right metric by which to judge whether we’re on a sustainable path, but to judge it by reference to a forecast five years ahead – a rolling five-year horizon – doesn’t make any sense.

“The right thing to do would be to commit to having the ratio of debt to national income falling by the end of this Parliament, a fixed date.”

Lord King was also critical of the Labour for committing to the Conservatives’ national insurance cut.

“I don’t understand why the previous government cut national insurance contributions,” he said.

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“I think that was irresponsible, and I think it’s equally irresponsible for the then opposition, now government, to promise not to reverse that.”

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Scottish town with one-of-a-kind water attraction that people say is like a theme park ride

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The Falkirk Wheel is a rotating boat lift

AN UNUSUAL water attraction in the UK has been likened to a theme park ride by visitors – and it’s the only one of its kind in the world.

The Falkirk Wheel is a rotating boat lift that carries barges and boats between the Forth and Clyde Canal and the Union Canal.

The Falkirk Wheel is a rotating boat lift

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The Falkirk Wheel is a rotating boat liftCredit: Alamy
The rotating boat lift has been compared to a 'theme park ride' by some visitors

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The rotating boat lift has been compared to a ‘theme park ride’ by some visitorsCredit: Alamy

Located in Falkirk, Scotland, it is the only one of its kind in the world, making it a tourist attraction in its own right.

After first opening in 2002, it has become one of Scotland’s busiest tourist attractions, with 500,000 visitors every year.

Travel website Secret Scotland described it as an “exceptional” example of engineering, writing: “The Falkirk Wheel boat lift is an exceptional feat of modern engineering that connects the Forth & Clyde and Union Canals.”

Meanwhile, Scottish Canals described the Union Canal as “a route to remember” on their website.

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They added: “From the iconic Falkirk Wheel to the historic heart of Scotland‘s capital city, discover boat trips, inspiring trails and amazing heritage.”

The rotating wheel takes around five minutes to lift boats from one canal onto the other.

Barges can be hired and taken down both canals, with Edinburgh at the end of one and Glasgow at the end of the other.

Although visitors won’t need to hire a barge to give the Falkirk Wheel a go, with tours onboard two boats from the Scottish Canals Trust are also in operation.

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The Original Tour lasts 50 minutes and includes two turns on the Falkirk Wheel.

Visitors will depart from the Falkirk Wheel Basin where they’ll enter the lower gondola of the wheel before sailing through the sky to join the Union Canal 35 metres above the basin.

Five unmissable places to visit in Scotland – from lesser known lochs to mystical isles

Boat tours will then continue along the aqueduct, heading through Roughcastle Tunnel before reaching the mouth of the Union Canal where boats will turn back to the start.

Tours last 50 minutes, with tickets costing £17.40 for a full-paying adult and £9.60 for children.

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The Falkirk Wheel has been praised by visitors on TripAdvisor, with a 4.5/5 star rating from over 4,000 reviews.

One person wrote: “The area has been turned into a children’s theme park ride”.

While a third person wrote: “It’s more like a theme park attraction than a boat lift”.

There are plenty of other attractions at the Falkirk Wheel, including a splash zone with a huge stone map and mini canal lock gates.

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A fleet of little paddle boats lets younger visitors experience the water in the boating pond.

Older children can take to the water on bumper boats, each of which come equipped with a squirt gun.

Other activities include paddle boarding and water zorbing and canoeing on the water trail.

Nearby, there’s also Helix Park where a huge set of two Kelpie statues can be found.

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Kelpies are mythical shape-shifting horse spirits that were said to drag humans to their deaths in the water.

The statues were designed by Andy Scott, and they’re the largest equine statues in the world.

Spanning more than 350 hectares, there are plenty of other features inside the huge park, including an adventure zone and splash play area for kids, with fountains spraying from the ground and huge climbing structures.

Meanwhile walking and cycling routes “meander through lush greenery and enchanting woodlands” according to the park’s website.

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The paths in and around the park connect 16 communities via 26 kilometres worth of trail, all of which can be explored.

Entry to Helix Park is free, making it ideal for families.

Five new water attractions opening in the UK

  1. Therme Manchester will have 25 swimming pools, 25 water slides and an indoor beach.
  2. Modern Surf Manchester will be a surfing lagoon offering lessons to both beginners and experts.
  3. Chessington World of Adventures Waterpark is set to have wave, infinity and spa pools as well as waterslides and cabanas.
  4. The Cove Resort, Southport is likely to have a water lagoon and a thermal spa with steam rooms and saunas.
  5. The Seahive, Deal plans to be the “surfing wellness resort” in the UK.

Meanwhile, Dundee has been named Scotland’s most underrated city thanks to its ties to the Beano and the Dandy.

And we’ve recently revealed our favourite spots for a September break.

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There are plenty of other water activities at the Falkirk Wheel

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There are plenty of other water activities at the Falkirk WheelCredit: Scottish Canals 2024
The Falkirk Wheel first opened in 2002

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The Falkirk Wheel first opened in 2002Credit: Alamy

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‘End of an era!’ cry devastated customers as ‘brilliant’ family business shuts for good after 70 years

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'End of an era!' cry devastated customers as 'brilliant' family business shuts for good after 70 years

CUSTOMERS of a 70-year-old family business are devastated as the shop has closed its doors for good.

Woolsey Cycles, a bicycle shop in Acton, London, served its final customers yesterday (September 28), having been operating since 1955.

Woolsey Cycles in Acton, London had been open since 1955

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Woolsey Cycles in Acton, London had been open since 1955Credit: Facebook

The shop was known for its personal touch and was beloved in the area.

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It was run by Malcolm Woolsey and his father Roger, relations of Donald Woolsey, who originally bought the shop.

Malcolm announced the news of the sad closure on Facebook in July.

He said: “After three generations of our family and the shop owner before that, the time has sadly come to move on to pastures new.

“We would like to thank our customers, both old and new, for their continued support over the years.”

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He went on to give a heartfelt thanks to the shop‘s longest serving employee, saying: “We would like to thank our staff members that have come and gone over the years, but mainly to David.

“He has been working in the business for 27 years and at times running it.

“During Malcolm’s two prolonged sick leave periods, David ran the shop single-handedly and without him involved we’re not sure how we would’ve coped.”

He added: “We have seen many changes over the years, both in life and in bikes with many memories made and laughs over the years, many of which we can thank our ongoing customers for.

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“The occasional gifts we get show the true appreciation from you and means so much to us. The shows of kindness and support during the pandemic were especially well received.”

New Beginning for The Body Shop

The post was flooded with comments from disappointed customers mourning its loss.

One read: “Very sorry to hear this – David and Malcolm were always incredibly helpful and offered the best advice on bikes.”

Another said: “You’ve always been brilliant and will be much missed. Much luck for whatever comes next.”

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A third person wrote: “70 years of serving the local area around Acton, end of an era Malcolm.”

Yesterday, a poem was uploaded to the shop’s Facebook page, titled “THE END OF AN ERA”.

It began: “The end of an era, and of our time, each moment has changed us, and will help us climb.”

The family has not yet explained the reasoning for the closure, which may be related to the uptick in online bike sales.

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The news comes as several other shops have also closed their doors to customers.

This week, a B&M branch in Warrington announced its closure, while a Poundland store in Berkshire also closed just a year after opening.

High streets across the UK have suffered from decline over the past decade.

Since 2018, 6,000 retail outlets have brought down the shutters, according to the British Retail Consortium.

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The trade association’s chief executive Helen Dickinson OBE blamed the closures on “crippling” business rates and the impact of coronavirus lockdowns.

Why are retailers closing stores?

RETAILERS have been feeling the squeeze since the pandemic, while shoppers are cutting back on spending due to the soaring cost of living crisis.

cost of living crisis.

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High energy costs and a move to shopping online after the pandemic are also taking a toll, and many high street shops have struggled to keep going.

The high street has seen a whole raft of closures over the past year, and more are coming.

The number of jobs lost in British retail dropped last year, but 120,000 people still lost their employment, figures have suggested.

Figures from the Centre for Retail Research revealed that 10,494 shops closed for the last time during 2023, and 119,405 jobs were lost in the sector.

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It was fewer shops than had been lost for several years, and a reduction from 151,641 jobs lost in 2022.

The centre’s director, Professor Joshua Bamfield, said the improvement is “less bad” than good.

Although there were some big-name losses from the high street, including Wilko, many large companies had already gone bust before 2022, the centre said, such as Topshop owner Arcadia, Jessops and Debenhams.

“The cost-of-living crisis, inflation and increases in interest rates have led many consumers to tighten their belts, reducing retail spend,” Prof Bamfield said.

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“Retailers themselves have suffered increasing energy and occupancy costs, staff shortages and falling demand that have made rebuilding profits after extensive store closures during the pandemic exceptionally difficult.”

Alongside Wilko, which employed around 12,000 people when it collapsed, 2023’s biggest failures included Paperchase, Cath Kidston, Planet Organic and Tile Giant.

The Centre for Retail Research said most stores were closed because companies were trying to reorganise and cut costs rather than the business failing.

However, experts have warned there will likely be more failures this year as consumers keep their belts tight and borrowing costs soar for businesses.

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The Body Shop and Ted Baker are the biggest names to have already collapsed into administration this year.

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Boris Johnson’s support of Covid lab leak theory is significant

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Boris Johnson's support of Covid lab leak theory is significant

For once, Johnson may have performed a public service

September 29, 2024 5:57 pm(Updated 5:58 pm)

Boris Johnson is publishing his memoir, timed to coincide with the Conservative Party conference, in his usual attention-seeking manner and written in his familiar gratingly-florid style.

Political autobiographies tend to be solipsistic attempts to shore up their author’s place in history so most are very dreary. Given Johnson’s shameful record in office, his selfishness and his sorry relationship to the truth, his book would not normally serve as anything more than a sad reminder of his party’s descent into stupidity that led to such brutal rejection by the electorate.

Yet one nugget leaps out: his suggestion the Covid-19 pandemic was sparked by some kind of leak from a laboratory in Wuhan rather than zoonotic transmission from an animal species.

“The awful thing about the whole Covid catastrophe is that it appears to have been entirely man-made, in all its aspects,” he writes. “It now looks overwhelmingly likely that the mutation was the result of some botched experiment in a Chinese lab. Some scientists were clearly splicing bits of virus together like the witches in Macbeth – eye of bat and toe of frog – and oops, the frisky little critter jumped out of the test tube and started replicating all over the world.”

This allegation, reported by The Mail on Sunday, is significant since Johnson was prime minister when a strange new coronavirus erupted in that central Chinese city, spreading death, fear and economic devastation around the planet (and nearly causing his own demise).

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The former prime minister becomes the highest profile leader after Donald Trump to state this suspicion in public, although it has become an increasingly widely-held public view in the 55 months since I first began probing China’s cover-up of Covid’s birth.

Like the former United States president, Johnson is a politician with a history of deceit who is detested by many foes. But that does not mean he is always wrong.

It would be good to think we have learned from the daft tribalism that has clouded the debate over Covid’s origins since the outcome is so important to guard against another pandemic.

Johnson’s statement, coming from such a pivotal source, should spark serious exploration of the issues at last in Britain. Politicians, civil servants, key scientists and the intelligence agencies need to be put on the spot and quizzed under oath over their knowledge of the outbreak – especially given all the mounting evidence of an organised attempt at the highest levels to stifle debate over the origins by branding the idea of a laboratory leak as “conspiracy theory”.

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Last week, Professor Kevin Fong, former national clinical adviser in emergency preparedness at NHS England, described the pandemic as the “biggest national emergency this country has faced since World War Two” as he spoke movingly – and often tearfully – about the medical response at the Covid hearings.

This inquiry is costing taxpayers £200m. Yet when former cabinet minister Michael Gove – another central player in Britain’s response – said “there is a significant body of judgement that believes that the virus itself was man made”, he was shut down quickly for straying into this “somewhat divisive issue”.

This is unacceptable. There is not enough space to run through the complex debate here, suffice to say there is no definitive proof yet over the origins. Intense efforts to find a host creature that might have led a virus from bats living hundreds of miles away to cross over into humans in Wuhan – with attempts to blame creatures such as pangolins and racoon dogs – have led to suggestions that the virus erupted in a wet market.

This tired theory – which keeps bouncing back like a bad penny – has been firmly rejected by China’s authorities and the world’s top coronavirologist. It does not match evidence on earliest cases, nor much research trying to date first infections.

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The alternative case – raised by Johnson – has grown steadily stronger with each crumb of evidence. There was always valid suspicion over a pandemic erupting in the city that is home to the world’s foremost research lab for Sars-like viruses, especially when it was found to have known concerns over safety practices.

This lab collected thousands of bat viruses from southern China and south-east Asia, but hid its database. It carried out high-risk “gain-of-function” research to boost infectivity of coronaviruses in low-level security environments, derided as “wild west” even by its funders in Washington.

And we learned that shortly before the pandemic, Wuhan scientists proposed with their partners in the United States to create viruses with the defining feature of Covid’s virus – the “furin cleavage site” that enables more efficient entry into human cells and is not found on similar types of coronavirus. This lab leak theory was shored up by a series of shocking leaks and revelations swirling around some of the most prominent figures pushing the zoonotic case.

Yet this impassioned debate even divides intelligence agencies in the United States – although at least Washington has made some efforts to establish the truth, even if the discussions in Congress have been depressingly partisan.

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In Britain there has been only a thudding official silence, despite similar concerns over the role of some leading scientists and institutions – including Sir Patrick Vallance, recently appointed science minister by the Labour Government.

Science relies on openness and the vigorous clash of ideas. Yet the issues at stake here go beyond the core question of what caused Covid-19 and the role of Beijing in covering up the initial outbreak, which inflamed the impact with terrible and tragic consequences.

They raise questions over regulation of risky experiments, the role of Western funding bodies, the behaviour of leading scientists, the failures of global public health bodies, the duplicity of academic journals, the patsy reporting of naive journalists, even the corruption of universities by Chinese cash.

Behind all this lies the stench of elitist arrogance and kowtowing of democratic institutions towards a repulsive dictatorship. For once, Johnson may have performed a public service.

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Killing of Hassan Nasrallah hits at heart of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’

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Within hours of Israel launching strikes to assassinate Hassan Nasrallah, large posters appeared across Tehran declaring “Hizbollah is Alive”.

Iranian state media initially said Nasrallah, the Lebanese militant group’s leader, was “in a safe place”, but there was a conspicuous silence from regime officials. It was as if the Islamic republic’s leaders were not ready to acknowledge the loss of Tehran’s most important regional ally.

Israel’s assassination of Nasrallah on Friday delivered not just a catastrophic blow to Hizbollah, but a devastating hit to its main patron: Iran. For more than three decades, Tehran looked to Nasrallah and his movement as the key pillar in its regional security and deterrent strategy — the frontline in its long shadow war with Israel.

An Iranian official said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and ultimate decision maker, considered Nasrallah a “son”.

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“It’s a major blow to Iran, both tactically and strategically — the loss of such a figure who has had the absolute trust of the supreme leader,” the official said. “It doesn’t mean that Hizbollah is done . . . but it means it will take a long time to establish trust. Other leaders [in Hizbollah] were not as close as he was to the supreme leader. In the short term it’s a big, big blow to the whole resistance.”

A banner declaring that  ‘Hizbollah is alive’ hangs along a Tehran bridge on Saturday
A banner declaring that ‘Hizbollah is alive’ hangs on a Tehran bridge on Saturday © Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

Rebuilding Hizbollah’s leadership and operational strength will pose myriad challenges for Tehran, particularly as Israel’s operations have laid bare how deeply its intelligence services have penetrated both Lebanon and Iran.

Iranian analysts said the republic would not abandon its strategy of using proxy forces across the region, despite the setback. Iran has relied on regional militant groups since its 1980s war with Iraq, realising it lacked the conventional firepower to defend against its foes, including Israel and the US.

These forces — dubbed the axis of resistance — remain essential to Iran’s ability to project power beyond its borders, which is based in part on the belief that it can hurt its enemies without being drawn into direct conflict.

After enduring the worst two weeks in Hizbollah’s history, the instinct in Tehran has so far been to regroup rather than lash out. The Iranian official said Iran wanted to allay any perception it had been weakened, and instead show that “everything is under control”.

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“Tehran views this as yet another difficult episode in a broader struggle that must continue,” said Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former reformist vice-president. “Iran and Hizbollah may pause their actions for now to avoid escalating the conflict, but this should not be seen as a long-term retreat nor a change of strategy.”

Iran has nurtured Hizbollah as a proxy force in Lebanon since the 1980s, when Israel occupied the Arab state, and came to regard it as the most successful of its regional ventures.

The group served as a model for other Iran-backed Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen, and also helped train them. Tehran’s Quds force, the wing of the elite Revolutionary Guards responsible for overseas operations, works hand-in-hand with the militants, providing arms, funds and training.

A senior guards commander, Abbas Nilforoushan, was killed along with Nasrallah when Israel bombs flattened at least six residential buildings in a southern suburb of Beirut.

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That has heightened concerns in Israel that Iran could seek to retaliate, both for the assassination of Nasrallah and one of its own officers.

US national security spokesman John Kirby on Sunday expressed concern about a potential Iranian response, saying rhetoric coming out of Iran “certainly suggests they’re going to try to do something”.

But so far, there have been no vows of revenge from Iranian leaders. Instead, Tehran’s main message has been that while Hizbollah has taken a damaging hit, it remains a significant force.

“Hizbollah has lost a unique leader, but the foundations that he laid in Lebanon and provided for other resistance centres will not disappear with his loss, instead they will further strengthen, thanks to his, and other martyrs’ blood,” Khamenei said.

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Tehran has over the past year made clear it does not want direct conflict with Israel, even as hostilities have escalated, wary of being drawn into what Iranian officials describe “as a trap”.

For years, Iran sought to keep its conflict with Israel in the shadows. But that delicate balance has been upended by the regional hostilities that erupted in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 attack. Iran-backed militants attacked Israel, while Israeli forces have repeatedly struck Iranian commanders in Syria.

In April, Tehran took the unprecedented step of launching more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel after Israeli forces attacked Iran’s consulate in Damascus, killing several senior Iranian commanders.

An excavator clears rubble from the site of the consulate
Israel attacked Iran’s Damascus consulate in April © Firas Makdesi/Reuters

It was the first direct attack on Israel from Iranian soil. Regime leaders hoped it would set a new level of deterrence, although it was widely telegraphed to limit the damage and avoid further escalation, Iranian analysts say.

But Israel has appeared undeterred.

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In July, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran by a suspected Israeli attack just hours after he attended the inauguration of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian — a humiliating security breach for the republic.

Despite vows of retaliation, Iran has yet to respond, underscoring the challenges it faces sustaining its deterrence strategy.

“We’ve reached a stage where neither missiles or drones nor proxy forces can effectively deter Israel, which enjoys cutting-edge technology and unwavering US financial support,” said a senior Iranian reformist politician.

“Iran appears reluctant to engage in direct conflict, especially with a leader like [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, who uses aggressive tactics to appear uncontrollable. Why should Iran fight with a madman and risk the whole country?”

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Tehran’s apparent hesitation could prove politically costly. As the self-proclaimed leader of anti-Israel movements in the Islamic world, the Iranian regime is under increasing pressure to act.

In Lebanon, anger towards Iran is growing. Social media is rife with posts accusing the regime of betrayal for not responding swiftly to Nasrallah’s killing.

“Iran will become a symbol of treason in history, like Judas and Brutus,” read one post that went viral.

Compounding Iran’s challenges is the fact that Pezeshkian, Iran’s first reformist president in two decades, wants to ease tensions with the US and negotiate over its nuclear programme to secure relief from sanctions.

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But any détente with the west, which would ease crippling economic hardship, becomes even more complicated with every escalation.

“Iran, weakened by US sanctions, cannot afford a war with Israel,” said one political analyst in Tehran. “This is exactly why Israel is trying to draw Iran into a war.”

The risk of Israel turning its sights to the republic has raised concerns in Tehran. Iranians also worry that Netanyahu’s strategy is to scupper any chances of Washington engaging with Iran, while drawing the US into a war against the republic.

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The “criminal and racist gang of Netanyahu . . . might even attack Iran”, warned Mohsen Rezaei, a former senior guards’ commander, on Saturday.

For now, the republic appears set on sticking to its policy of restraint, avoiding direct clashes while potentially using other militants such as the Houthis to attack Israel and the US. “The Houthis have already destabilised shipping routes in the Red Sea,” added the senior reformist politician.

Iran can also be expected to patiently assist Hizbollah in rebuilding, in the hope of guiding it through the most difficult period since its foundation. But the loss of the group’s leader and senior commanders could further radicalise a reborn Hizbollah.

“Hizbollah, post-Nasrallah, may no longer pursue the same calculations and policies. On the contrary, it can become more radical,” Abtahi added. “This is no end to Hizbollah nor Iran’s influence in the region.”

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Additional reporting by Raya Jalabi in Beirut and Steff Chávez in Washington

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