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Nancy Mace Responds to Hurricane Helene With Wrong Statement on ‘Childhood Genital Mutilation’

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The Daily Beast

MAGA-lite Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) had a surprising response to Hurricane Helene on Monday—instead of addressing the devastating storm that has left her own state reeling amid environmental destruction, she accidentally sent out a press release about “child genital mutilation.”

“Our children are not guinea pigs in the radical left’s dangerous social experimentation,” read an e-mail sent by Mace’s office with the subject header, “Rep. Nancy Mace Statement on Hurricane Helene.”

Those words were intended for the announcement of Mace’s “Childhood Genital Mutilation Prevention Act,” a bill she introduced that, despite its name, would imprison doctors for providing medical treatment to transgender youth and block federal funds from supporting those treatments.

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Mace has previously suggested that their opposition to the equal participation of trans women in sports makes Republicans “the feminists of today.”

It is very likely that one of Mace’s staffers recycled the subject header from a Sept. 26 statement she made on Helene.

It is also very likely whoever sent the release has been told to build future ones from scratch rather than copying, pasting, and editing the last one, lest her next media release—whatever the subject—be headlined “CONGRESSWOMAN NANCY MACE INTRODUCES THE ‘CHILDHOOD GENITAL MUTILATION PREVENTION ACT’ TO PROTECT CHILDREN.”

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Travel

Incredible two-level floating RACE TRACK on cruise ship where adrenaline junkie kids can ‘turbo boost’ all day long

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The Norwegian Cruise Line offers go-karting on board

LOOKING for your next big family holiday? This floating theme park might float your boat!

The eye-catching Norwegian Bliss cruise ship has an incredible two level race track on deck.

The Norwegian Cruise Line offers go-karting on board

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The Norwegian Cruise Line offers go-karting on boardCredit: Norwegian Cruise Line
The track runs almost 1,000ft across two decks

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The track runs almost 1,000ft across two decksCredit: Norwegian Cruise Line

Adrenaline junkie kids can go head to head on one of the longest race tracks at sea.

If you’re not eager to hit top speed, there are four settings for motorists – beginner, intermediate and advanced as well as a “turbo boost” option for those who have the need for speed.

The cars have four speed settings, for beginner, intermediate and advanced drivers that go up to 30 miles per hour, with a “turbo boost” on each lap for thrill seekers.

The track runs almost 1,000ft across two decks.

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Competitors can nab a bargain Unlimited Weekly pass, which gives you unlimited rides, and you won’t have to wait endlessly in pesky queues.

If that doesn’t sate your need for speed, whizz down the Ocean Loops waterslide, which features two loops and hangs over the SIDE of the ship.

There is more racing on offer, too.

Challenge friends on the Aqua River waterslide, in an inner tube, or get your thrills on Ocean Loops which drops you two storeys into a double-loop flume.

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If that still doesn’t tickle your fancy,  a game of outdoor laser tag located in a make-believe abandoned space station might do just day.

Players can seek out their rivals during the day, but it is much more exciting when dusk sets.

Cruise ship passengers erupt in anger and chant ‘give us our money’ after being told trip has changed after boarding

For parents and Beatles fans who want to unwind, a tribute band plays all the hits from the Cavern Club in the evenings.

During the day, feel free to lounge by the pool without fear of being disturbed as the go karts lapping nearby run silently.

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For the height of luxury, check out The Haven — an exclusive area of the ship with posh suites, butlers and a two-bedroom family villa that even has a bath with sea view.

Splash out on a Haven suite and you can take a dip in a private pool, drink in a private bar and eat in a private restaurant.

ICELAND’S FIRST EVER WHISKEY CRUISE

By Daniel Edward

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I’M in high spirits on board NCL’s first ever whisky cruise.

But as the horn blasts and Norwegian Prima edges sideways into a blur of autumnal rain, it was confirmed — my friend hadn’t made it.

I’m sailing, surprisingly solo, to Iceland on a whisky cruise, hosted by Johnnie Walker’s master blender, Emma Walker (no relation, she says).

The voyage is part of NCL’s Meet The Maker series, where drinks industry experts lead workshops, seminars and dinners to share their craft with cruisers.

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It’s an adults’ treat from the family-friendly line, returning in 2024 for its eighth year.

Leaving flash floods in Southampton for the English Channel, I explore the 19-deck liner, with its multi-level go-kart track and three over-the-edge slides.

In addition to the pool deck, there’s an aqua park, a high-tech VR games arcade and a massive no-adults-allowed kids club.

And sailing off-season, with only 45 kids onboard, Norwegian Prima looks even more fun for adults.

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NCL’s tagline is Freestyle Cruising, meaning you can eat what you want when you want, without set dining times.

Prima has 15 restaurants — more than the number of dinners I’ll squeeze into my week onboard — and 20 bars.

Not that finding somewhere to refuel is ever a problem on Bliss. It has 14 watering holes and 27 places to eat, including a casual self-service, posh French bistro and Ocean Blue for seafood.

The Norwegian Bliss will cruises to Alaska from Seattle, and seasonally she’ll offer cruises to Bahamas and Florida, The Caribbean, Mexican Riviera, Pacific Coastal, and Panama Canal.

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The cruise ship can accommodate just over 4,000 passengers.

She is also the first ocean liner with a huge glass-fronted observation lounge, which has been added because Bliss is cruising in Alaska and somewhere to sit and watch for passing whales is a must.

Racers can choose from four different speed levels

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Racers can choose from four different speed levelsCredit: Norwegian Cruise Line

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The Project Censored Newsletter – February 2024

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State of the Free Press 2024 in the News

Mischa Geracoulis, who organized and introduced the yearbook’s Media Democracy in Action chapter, coauthored an article, What the New York Times Gets Wrong About Lemkin’s Work on Genocide, with Heidi Boghosian, host of the Law and Disorder radio show. Geracoulis and Boghosian’s piece was republished by Consortium News. Geracoulis and Boghosian also published a follow-up article, From ‘Jihadist’ Dearborn to Middle East’s ‘Insects,’ calling out further distortions in op-eds published by the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.

CovertAction Bulletin featured Mickey Huff and Andy Lee Roth in conversation with Rachel Hu and Chris Garaffa. Mitch Ratcliffe and Roth discussed the year’s most important but underreported environmental issues for an episode of the Earth911 podcast. Matt Crawford hosted Roth on the Curious Man Podcast. Greg Godels and Pat Cummings hosted Roth for episode 70 of the Coming From Left Field podcast. Roth was also a guest on JENerational Change with Jen Perelman and Peter Hager.

On January 22, North Central College held a State of the Free Press 2024 book launch, featuring special presentations from NCC students and faculty, highlighting stories from this year’s Top 25 and Déjà Vu News chapters. Special thanks to Steve Macek and Amy Buxbaum for their hard work on this year’s book and for organizing such a wonderful community event.

The ScheerPost excerpted two sections from the 2024 yearbook: Roth and Huff’s Navigating the News Void: From News Deserts to Revitalization, based on the introduction to State of the Free Press 2024, and Robin Andersen’s News Abuse analysis, under the title How Corporate Media Outlets Failed Their Readers in 2023. In late January, CounterPunch and the Los Angeles Progressive also republished Andersen’s article.

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Upcoming Events

Mickey Huff will be at Avid Reader in Sacramento, California, on February 17 for a book event featuring State of the Free Press 2024. C-SPAN will be there to cover the event, which starts at 2pm.

Project Censored is partnering with the Media Education Foundation (MEF) to host a webinar discussion based on Theaters of War, a documentary film by Roger Stahl, which exposes how the Pentagon and CIA took Hollywood. The webinar event, Silver Screen War Machine: Decoding the Military-Entertainment Complex, will be held at 4pm Pacific time on Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Featured speakers include Mnar Adley, Robin Andersen, Fatooma Saad, and Stahl, in conversation with host Mickey Huff. For more information or to register for the event, follow this link.

The Censored Press will be meeting folks and selling titles from its catalog at the Tucson Festival of Books in Tucson, Arizona, March 9-10. Last year, an estimated 120,000 people attended the two-day celebration of books and reading. If you’re in Tucson that weekend, stop by booth #175 and say hello!


Congratulations to Adam Bessie and Peter Glanting, whose book Going Remote: A Teacher’s Journey was selected by the American Library Association (ALA) as one of the Best Graphic Novels for Adults in 2023. Illustrated by Peter Glanting, Going Remote is Adam Bessie’s memoir of teaching in a community college during the pandemic while undergoing cancer treatment. It “swells with a determined optimism,” Publishers Weekly noted in its starred review.

Allison Butler, coauthor of The Media and Me, appeared on NPR’s All Things Considered in a segment on the importance of media literacy education to stop the spread of misinformation. Interviewed by Arun Rath of GBH, Boston Public Radio, Butler highlighted the “engagement of continuous critical inquiry, continuously asking questions,” as hallmarks of critical media literacy education.

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The Censored Notebook features a new article by Nolan Higdon, Villainizing Media Literacy at the World Economic Forum: Time to Mandate It in US Schools. Noting that “elites grow agitated and defensive” when members of the public employ critical media literacy to hold establishment media accountable, Higdon reports on remarks made by  Emma Tucker, editor-in-chief of the Wall Street Journal, at the January 2024 meeting of the World Economic Forum. Higdon—who helped write The Media and Me—argues for more comprehensive critical media literacy education.


Sue Wilson wrote FCC Regulators Play the Shell Game with Broadcasters, a deep dive into the Federal Communication Commission’s investigation of the Sinclair Broadcast Group. Wilson, an Emmy-award-winning broadcast journalist who heads the Media Action Center, reports on revelations from a multi-year effort, using Freedom of Information Act requests, to expose double standards in the FCC’s handling of licenses for Sinclair’s broadcasting empire. “A reckoning of these shell games should have come out in a public hearing,” Wilson writes.

In her article, As GQ Absorbs Pitchfork, Music Media Becomes Even More Male-Centric, Shealeigh Voitl examines what the Pitchfork layoffs and merging music media with men’s media might mean for artists, journalists, music fans, and inclusivity. Noting that “women, people of color, queer and non-binary folks, and other marginalized communities have always been innovating, making music, writing about music, and finding ways to introduce new sounds to their circles,” Voitl questions who gets left behind in the wake of music industry mergers and layoffs.


Follow the links for each episode to learn more about the Show’s featured guests and content. Find the comprehensive archive of Project Censored Show episodes here.


Curious What We Listen To While We’re Doing What We Do?

Project Censored’s staff always has music playing—on and off the clock. For the very first time, the Project has curated a staff playlist, compiled by Reagan Haynie, reflecting a wide range of musical preferences, with everything from Pet Shop Boys to Willie Nelson. Staff members also contributed to a special “Censored” playlist, featuring music that explores censorship, challenges convention, and celebrates independent artists.

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Jenrick defends UK special forces comments in Tory leadership row

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Robert Jenrick has defended controversial claims that Britain’s special forces are “killing rather than capturing terrorists”, as the Conservative leadership frontrunner sought to quell a growing backlash during the party’s conference.

The former communities secretary on Tuesday refused to row back on the allegation he made in a campaign video this week, as he was criticised by rival leadership contenders.

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In the video Jenrick said the UK’s “special forces are killing rather than capturing terrorists, because our lawyers tell us that if they’re caught, the European court will set them free”.

The remarks elicited a furious reaction in military circles, while Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director-general at the Royal United Services Institute, told Times Radio it was a “very dangerous” claim that “could put our forces at risk”. 

The furore — coming the day after fellow candidate Kemi Badenoch was criticised for comments over maternity pay — has injected fresh drama into the race to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader.

Badenoch had been favourite at the start of the contest, but Jenrick — historically a centrist who has tacked to the right — has come first during the two rounds of voting by Tory MPs so far.

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The four-day gathering has become a de facto leadership conference, with the four contenders — including Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly — setting out their pitch following the party’s worst-ever election defeat. Tory MPs will eliminate two candidates next week, with party members voting for an overall winner by November 2.

On Tuesday Tugendhat and Cleverly — both of whom previously served in the army — condemned Jenrick’s comments about UK special forces. 

Tugendhat suggested at a fringe event that Jenrick knows “nothing about” sensitive military matters, after earlier telling Sky News that his remarks were “wrong” and showed a “misunderstanding of military operations and the law of armed conflict”.

Cleverly said that the UK military abided by international law and the rules of armed conflict, adding they “do not murder people”. 

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Jenrick declined to back down, however, insisting during an hour-long question and answer session on the main stage that he had been referring to remarks made by former Tory defence secretary Ben Wallace. 

He added: “I don’t want our human rights apparatus to be standing in the way of taking the right operational decisions for our national security and for protecting the lives of the brave men and women who serve in our special forces.”

Elsewhere in his session he declared mass migration had left Britain “less united” and argued that previous Tory ministers increasing the number of inward arrivals after Brexit was “disgraceful”.

The former immigration minister criticised “the appearance of two-tier policing” in the UK, and heaped doubt on the BBC’s funding model.

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He also said he would “like to” cut the 45p top rate of income tax, but said he would not commit to fiscal policy during the contest. 

Declaring himself “sad” that the Tories put the nation on the track to a record high tax burden, he said the party must return to being a “low tax and pro growth” party. 

In the wake of the donations row engulfing the Labour government, Jenrick vowed he would not take freebies — in contrast to Cleverly, who on Monday had defended taking some clothing donations in the past during a fringe event.

In his own question session Cleverly, promised to appoint a shadow cabinet from across the spectrum of the Conservative benches if he becomes leader.

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He said he had not started his leadership bid before July’s catastrophic election defeat — unlike some rivals — but was confident of making it through to the final two candidates to be leader of the opposition.

In a dig at Jenrick, who backed Remain in 2016, Cleverly said he had always been a Eurosceptic. “It is now very fashionable to be a Brexiteer but I was doing it before it was cool.”

Cleverly played up his friendship with former prime minister Boris Johnson, pointing out that he was party chair when the UK finally left the EU. 

He said he would axe VAT on private schools — a Labour measure that comes into force next year — as well as abolish stamp duty, keep issuing licences for North Sea oil drilling, maintain support for Ukraine and consider a subscription model for the BBC.

Tugendhat and Badenoch took part in similar session on Monday.

The four contenders will close the conference on Wednesday with back-to-back speeches, 20 minutes long each, in a bid to woo both MPs and members.

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Full list of areas handing out free cash to thousands on state pension to replace £300 winter fuel payment after cut

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Full list of areas handing out free cash to thousands on state pension to replace £300 winter fuel payment after cut

PENSIONERS missing out on this year’s winter fuel payment may be able to claim cash from their local council to help with energy bills.

Around 10million pensioners will no longer get the benefit, which is worth up to £300, after chancellor Rachel Reeves changed the rules for qualifying.

The winter fuel payment has been cut for millions of pensioners

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The winter fuel payment has been cut for millions of pensionersCredit: PA

From this winter, the payment will be limited to people receiving Pension Credit and other means-tested benefits.

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As a result, there are concerns many households will struggle with essential costs, like energy bills, throughout the winter.

Particularly as the energy price cap was increased today (October 1), meaning millions of households are facing a hike in their bills.

But, some local authorities have already stepped in to offer support to those left adrift by cuts to the benefit.

Cllr Pete Marland, chair of the Local Government Association’s Economy and Resources Board, said: “Councils recognise that changes to the way winter fuel allowance payments are made will mean some people no longer qualify and may experience difficulties.

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“Many councils support local people in this situation with their own local welfare schemes, including using the Household Support Fund which has been recently extended by the government.

“However, councils do want to see a shift away from short term crisis support to investment in services which reduce poverty, improve people’s financial resilience and life chances, underpinned by a sufficiently-resourced national welfare system.”

Thurrock Council has created a £100,000 fund to help pensioners who receive benefits but will no longer qualify for the winter fuel payment.

Cllr Sara Muldowney, the council’s cabinet member for Resources, said: “We want to make sure that our residents, especially the borough’s most vulnerable pensioners and families, have access to the help and support they need to stay warm and well this autumn and winter.”

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The authority has said it will work with Thurrock Community and Voluntary Services as well as other community groups to make sure support reaches those that need it.

Barnsley Council has also started a hardship fund for pensioners in response to the cut.

The council said it would be helping as many residents as possible to access the winter fuel payment, and step in if those who miss out find themselves in financial difficulties.

Councils are also looking to provide funds through the Household Support Fund (HSF).

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How to cut energy costs and get help with FOUR key household bills

The HSF is a pot of money shared between councils in England who then decide how to distribute it among those living in their areas.

That means what you are entitled to varies depending on where you live and is a postcode lottery.

The latest round of support will be delivered to councils this month and Milton Keynes City Council has said it will offer energy vouchers to struggling households immediately.

The council said it will assess applicants on a “case by case” basis, but people who are just missing out on the winter fuel payment will receive help worth up to £300.

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Those who live in the council district and meet any of the following criteria will be contacted about accessing the support:

  • Local people who are already in financial difficulty
  • Those who fall out of eligibility for Pension Credit and the Winter Fuel Payment

Many councils are providing support with energy bills to all struggling households, including pensioners who will miss out on this year’s winter fuel payment.

Coventry Council will offer energy grants of up to £120 for single people or childless couples, and £160 for families.

Households living in the city can apply for a maximum of three grants between October 1 2024 and and March 31 2025.

Applications can be made online with proof of financial hardship.

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Meanwhile, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council will provide grants to those over the age of 16 who do not have the money to cover essential costs.

Applications can be made through Citizens Advice here.

Medway Council is also providing help. It will give electronic energy cards to the value of £100 to those in demonstrable hardship, with less than £500 in their bank accounts.

Every council will receive funding from the HSF, so if you’re worried about making ends meet, check your local authority’s website for further details.

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To find your local council, use the Government’s council locator tool.

What is the Household Support Fund?

The HSF was first set up in October 2021 and has now been extended six times.

Councils in England are now able to benefit from the latest round of funding which amounts to £421million.

Nationwide councils have received a portion of the cash to distribute to households in need.

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But there is a postcode lottery to determine who qualifies and each local authority can set its own eligibility criteria.

Yet, if you have a limited amount of money or savings in the bank, or are deemed to be vulnerable or on benefits, you will probably qualify for help.

The HSF’s fifth round of funding will close on September 30, but the government has extended the scheme until April 2025 with the injection of a further £421million.

Applications may still be being accepted for the fifth round of funding, so it’s still worth checking with your local authority.

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Councils will determine how the cash is distributed. For example, households in Leicestershire have been able to apply for a financial award of £300 per household, which was paid in the form of vouchers to support with gas, electricity and food.

The payment could be delivered as a Post Office voucher, which can be redeemed for cash to help with gas, electricity or water, or an e-voucher to help with food costs that can be converted to a gift card for major supermarkets.

Meanwhile, residents of Leeds could receive council tax support with those with dependent children able to claim up to £100, while those without children could receive £25.

You should get in touch with your local council to see if you might be eligible for help.

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You can find what council area you fall under by using the Government’s council locator tool on its website.

The help you can get varies, depending on who your local council is, as well as your personal situation.

You may be able to receive free cash or vouchers to cover the cost of heating your home, or the weekly food grocery shop.

If an applicant is already receiving benefits, these will not be affected by the HSF.

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Additionally, you do not need to be getting benefits to receive vouchers or funds from the HSF.

Check with your local council to find out what support is available and the eligibility criteria.

How do you apply?

To get the help, you’ll need to look it up with your council because local authorities are the ones responsible for distributing the funding.

To find your local council, use the gov.uk council finder tool.

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Once you’ve identified your local council, there should be information on how to apply for the funding online.

Every council has a separate application process, meaning specific details regarding how to apply depend on where you live.

The eligibility requirements to access the fund might vary in addition so it’s best to check with your local council for further details.

Some councils won’t need you to apply for help and will get in touch instead if you qualify.

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If you can’t find any information on your council’s website, it’ s a good idea to call them and ask for further information.

How to save on your energy bills

SWITCHING energy providers can sound like a hassle – but fortunately it’s pretty straight forward to change supplier – and save lots of cash.

Shop around – If you’re on an SVT deal you are likely throwing away up to £250 a year. Use a comparion site such as MoneySuperMarket.com, uSwitch or EnergyHelpline.com to see what deals are available to you.

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The cheapest deals are usually found online and are fixed deals – meaning you’ll pay a fixed amount usually for 12 months.

Switch – When you’ve found one, all you have to do is contact the new supplier.

It helps to have the following information – which you can find on your bill –  to hand to give the new supplier.

  • Your postcode
  • Name of your existing supplier
  • Name of your existing deal and how much you payAn up-to-date meter reading

It will then notify your current supplier and begin the switch.

It should take no longer than three weeks to complete the switch and your supply won’t be interrupted in that time.

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Do you have a money problem that needs sorting? Get in touch by emailing money-sm@news.co.uk.

Plus, you can join our Sun Money Chats and Tips Facebook group to share your tips and stories

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▶ How Hezbollah Is Holding Lebanon Hostage

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▶ How Hezbollah Is Holding Lebanon Hostage

What is Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon?🇱🇧

While the media frame the story through Hezbollah’s lens, it’s crucial to recognize the terror org’s influence, destruction, and control of Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/dDLjUR7K3G

— HonestReporting (@HonestReporting) October 1, 2024

While many media outlets often view the situation through Hezbollah’s lens, it’s essential to understand the group’s significant influence in the country.

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Hezbollah was linked to the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafic Hariri and the Beirut port explosion. They obstructed the Lebanese army, effectively tightened their grip on Lebanese politics, and are essentially holding the nation hostage.

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Have we seen the end of cheap money?

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We are seeing the beginning of an easing cycle in monetary policy. Many now ask how far might interest rates fall and what those falls might mean for our economies. Yet, for me, the more interesting questions are longer-term. To be precise, there are three. First, have real interest rates at last made an enduring upward jump, after their secular decline to extraordinarily low levels? Second, has the valuation of stock markets ceased to be mean-reverting, even in the US, where mean-reversion had long seemed the norm? Third, might the answer to the first question have any bearing on the answer to the second?

In answering the first, we have one invaluable piece of information — a direct estimate of real interest rates for the UK provided by 10-year index-linked gilts for just under 40 years. US Treasury inflation-protected securities provide comparable information for the US, but only since 2003. These match each other well between 2002 and 2013. Since then real rates have fallen notably lower in the UK than in the US. The explanation must be the regulation of UK defined benefit pension plans, which has forced them to fund the government at absurdly low real interest rates, at great cost to the economy.

Line chart of Share of global savings (%) showing China has emerged as the world's savings superpower

Between their peak in September 1992 and their trough in December 2021, UK real rates fell by more than eight percentage points. In the US, they fell by more than four percentage points between their peak in November 2008, at the beginning of the financial crisis, and December 2021, after the pandemic.

Two things happened: a long-term decline in real interest rates and then a sharp fall triggered by the global financial crisis and the pandemic. The longer-term decline must in large part reflect the impact of globalisation, notably China’s huge excess savings.

Yet the recent rise in real rates has not brought real interest rates back to pre-financial crisis levels: today, they are 1.5 per cent in the US. These are modest rates. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (using a different methodology) give real interest rates of above 2 per cent in the 1990s in the US.

We have some reasons to expect real rates to go even higher. After all, they are still not all that high. Fiscal positions are stretched, notably in the US. There are the investment needs of the energy transition to fund, too. We have also moved from ageing to aged societies. This will tend to lower savings and raise fiscal pressures in high-income countries and China. Global turmoil will also raise spending on defence. This suggests that further increases in real rates are plausible. At the same time, ageing societies will tend to spend less on consumer durables and housing. This would weaken demand for investment. Moreover, as the OECD interim Economic Outlook notes, global economic growth is not widely expected to pick up strongly.

On balance, it is hard to have a strong view on future real interest rates, in either direction. Yet one might still have a view that inflation is set to return, perhaps as a result of soaring fiscal deficits and debts. That would show up as higher nominal interest rates if (or when) confidence in the ability of central banks to hit inflation targets started to erode. They have contained the recent price upsurge. But inflationary pressures could very easily return.

Now consider equity prices. What have today’s higher real interest rates meant for them? So far, the answer is: very little. If we look at the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratios (Cape) developed by the Nobel-laureate Robert Shiller, we find that in the US both of the ratios he currently uses are close to all-time highs. The implied cyclically adjusted earnings yield on the S&P 500 is a mere 2.8 per cent. That is just one percentage point above the Tips rate. It is also much lower than for any other significant stock market.

“Sell”, it seems to scream. Needless to say, that has not been happening. So, why not? Today’s earnings yield is, after all, almost 60 per cent below its historic average. One answer, lucidly propounded by Aswath Damodaran of the Stern School of Business, is that the past is not relevant. Certainly, he is right that backward-looking valuation ratios have been a poor guide to future returns, at least since the financial crisis. We cannot know whether this will remain true. Yet it is not hard to understand why he has jettisoned the past in favour of forecasts of future earnings. But the future is also highly uncertain. It is not difficult to imagine shocks able to disrupt markets that are far worse than the recent ones.

What we do know is that the margin between the real interest rate and the cyclically adjusted earnings yield is very small. It seem safe to argue that prospective returns from owning US stocks are unlikely to come to any large extent (if at all) from revaluations, given how highly valued they already are. Even the current valuations must depend on a belief in the ability of earnings to grow at extremely high rates far into the future, perhaps because existing (or prospective) monopolists will remain as profitable as today’s tech giants (now including Nvidia) have been.

This is essentially a bet on the ability of today’s US capitalism to generate supernormal profits forever. The weakness of other markets is a bet on the opposite outcome. If investors are right, recent rises in real interest rates are neither here nor there. In sum, they are betting on the proposition that “it really is different this time”. Personally, I find this hard to accept. But maybe, network effects and zero marginal costs have turned profitability into “manna from heaven”. Those able to collect it will enjoy their feast of profits forever.

Real interest rates? Who cares? Soaring inflation might be another matter.

martin.wolf@ft.com

Follow Martin Wolf with myFT and on X

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