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Oracle Founder Larry Ellison Just Delivered Fantastic News for Nvidia Stock Investors

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Oracle Founder Larry Ellison Just Delivered Fantastic News for Nvidia Stock Investors

Larry Ellison owns 42% of Oracle (NYSE: ORCL), a $465 billion technology giant that is building some of the most powerful data centers for artificial intelligence (AI) development.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) supplies Oracle and most other tech companies with data center chips called graphics processing units (GPUs). Nvidia has experienced an eye-popping surge in its revenue over the past year, and GPU demand continues to outstrip supply. However, some investors have begun to question how much longer Oracle and its peers can throw billions of dollars at the chip giant to fuel their AI aspirations.

Worries that the AI train may be starting to lose steam are a key reason Nvidia stock is trading down 14.5% from its all-time high. But the market may have missed comments this month from Ellison at Oracle’s financial analyst meeting that suggest more fantastic news for Nvidia’s investors.

Oracle is nowhere close to meeting its AI infrastructure goals

Oracle’s data centers are unique because they are automated. Each one is operationally identical regardless of its size, and since they don’t require human workers, it allows the company to build them quickly. Plus, Oracle’s RDMA (random direct memory access) GPU networking technology allows data to flow from one point to another more quickly than traditional Ethernet networks.

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Since most AI developers pay for computing capacity by the minute, Oracle’s data centers can deliver considerable cost savings compared to competing infrastructure. That’s why demand is soaring from leading AI start-ups like OpenAI, Cohere, and xAI. Oracle had 85 data centers up and running with 77 more under construction as of its fiscal 2025 first quarter (ended Aug. 31), but Ellison thinks it could operate as many as 2,000 in the long term.

Next year, Oracle intends to offer a cluster of 131,072 GPUs, which is a big step up from its largest clusters now, at around 32,000 GPUs. But there’s another difference: The new cluster will use Nvidia’s latest Blackwell chips, which can perform AI inference at 30 times the pace of its flagship H100, which Oracle currently uses. Theoretically, it’s going to allow developers to build the largest AI models in history.

That’s going to benefit Nvidia significantly. It generated $26.3 billion in data center revenue during its fiscal 2025 second quarter (ended July 28) primarily from GPU sales, which was a 154% increase from the year-ago period. That growth rate slowed compared to previous quarters because the numbers have become so large, but Nvidia’s customers are showing no signs of pulling back.

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In fact, Oracle spent $6.9 billion on data center infrastructure in fiscal 2024, and it plans to double that figure in fiscal 2025. But it gets better.

Ellison’s latest comments are great news for Nvidia

During the analyst meeting, Ellison told the audience about a dinner he arranged with Tesla CEO (and xAI founder) Elon Musk and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at Nobu in Palo Alto. He recalled himself and Musk begging Huang for more GPUs:

Please take our money … take more of it. You’re not taking enough. … We need you to take more of our money. Please.

— Ellison’s and Musk’s comments to Jensen Huang over dinner, according to Ellison.

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) generated $2.2 billion in revenue during Q1 (primarily from renting data center capacity to customers), which was a 46% increase from the year-ago period. However, Oracle ended the quarter with a record $99 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPOs), a whopping 53% jump. The company said it signed 42 new deals for GPU capacity worth $3 billion during Q1, which contributed to the backlog.

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Oracle can’t serve all of those AI developers — or convert its RPO into revenue — until it brings more data centers online, hence Ellison begging Huang for more GPUs.

Tesla is in a similar position. It’s battling for supremacy in the autonomous self-driving software industry, and it’s trying to bring a cluster of 50,000 GPUs online by the end of this year to further train its AI models. Tesla will spend $10 billion on that infrastructure, but it’s going to need more capacity over time.

Nvidia's headquarters with a black Nvidia sign in the foreground.

Image source: Nvidia.

Now might be a great time to buy Nvidia stock

Oracle and Tesla aren’t the only companies spending big on data centers. Microsoft spent $55.7 billion on capital expenditures (capex) mostly relating to AI infrastructure during its fiscal 2024 year (ended June 30), and it plans to spend even more in fiscal 2025. Similarly, Amazon‘s capex spending is on track to top $60 billion this calendar year.

Based on Nvidia’s trailing-12-month earnings per share of $2.20, its stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 52.7. That’s expensive compared to the 30.9 P/E ratio of the Nasdaq-100 technology index, which hosts many of Nvidia’s big-tech peers.

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However, Nvidia’s fiscal 2026 will begin at the end of January 2025, and Wall Street expects the company to deliver $4.02 in earnings per share for the year. That places its stock at a forward P/E ratio of just 28.8. In other words, investors who are willing to hold Nvidia stock for at least the next year and a half could be scooping up a bargain at its current price — assuming Wall Street’s forecast proves accurate.

A slowdown in Nvidia’s business will eventually come because the sheer magnitude of current AI spending will be very difficult to maintain over the long term. Plus, competition is slowly coming online in the GPU space, which could erode some of the company’s market share in the next few years.

However, based on the facts at hand today, Nvidia stock is likely a good buy at the current price. The earmarked AI spending from some of its largest customers suggests a slowdown isn’t on the immediate horizon.

Should you invest $1,000 in Nvidia right now?

Before you buy stock in Nvidia, consider this:

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The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Nvidia wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Oracle Founder Larry Ellison Just Delivered Fantastic News for Nvidia Stock Investors was originally published by The Motley Fool

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Wes Streeting says he will not back down on broken NHS claims

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Wes Streeting says he will not back down on broken NHS claims

Wes Streeting says he will not back down in his criticism of the NHS, after the BBC revealed there was growing unease in the service about the “broken” NHS messaging from government.

England’s health secretary told the Labour Party conference that not acknowledging the problems in the NHS would result in “killing it with kindness”.

His comments came after senior sources in the health service said they believe some of the claims have gone too far – and may result in patients being put off seeking help and causing lasting damage to staff morale.

In recent weeks, the government has claimed cancer is a “death sentence” because of NHS failings, while maternity services “shame” the nation.

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Streeting told delegates in Liverpool: “I know the doctor’s diagnosis can sometimes be hard to hear.

“But if you don’t have an accurate diagnosis, you won’t provide the correct prescription.

“And when you put protecting the reputation of the NHS above protecting patients, you’re not helping the NHS, you’re killing it with kindness.

“I won’t back down. The NHS is broken, but it’s not beaten, and together we will turn it around,” Mr Streeting said.

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He went on to criticise the NHS for overseeing the decline of services, and said recovery would only come with reform, promising the forthcoming 10-year plan would create a “world-class” service for all.

Streeting’s speech came after senior people in the health service, as well as officials within NHS England, spoke to the BBC about the approach being taken by Labour.

One hospital leader told the BBC: “We understand the politics of what the government is doing – they feel they need to establish in the public’s mind what a difficult inheritance they have been given.

“It’s something the Tories did very effectively in 2010, and even back in 1979, over the winter of discontent.

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“But there’s an increasing nervousness that if it continues much longer it could spook patients, and make it really difficult to raise staff morale. Hope is important.”

Similar views are being expressed privately at NHS England. Sources there said officials had made the government aware of its concerns about the messaging, and is monitoring the impact it is having on patients coming forward for check-ups and appointments.

“We are not seeing anything in the figures to suggest it’s having an impact, but we are keeping a close eye on it,” one source said.

Another hospital leader said: “If the government isn’t careful, it will cause lasting damage. Yes, we know there are many problems, but there is also lots of great care out there that is not being recognised.

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“We need to see a shift – the cancer death sentence phrasing strikes completely the wrong tone.”

Streeting first made the broken claim on the day he was appointed health secretary on 5 July – and it is a phrase he and others in government have used repeatedly since.

The death sentence claim was made in a written response from the government to a story covered by the BBC last week about the variation in waiting times by different cancers, and in the House of Commons by Streeting on 12 September, the day Lord Ara Darzi published his report into the state of the NHS.

In both cases, it was suggested Lord Darzi’s report found cancer was “more likely to be a death sentence for NHS patients than those in other countries”.

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Lord Darzi did not use the phrase “death sentence” in his report, although he did point out the UK had higher cancer mortality rates. Lord Darzi has been approached for comment, but is yet to respond.

When asked for a response to the language, Cancer Research UK pointed the BBC to data showing that one in two people diagnosed with cancer now survive at least 10 years.

Meanwhile, the phrase “national shame” was used by Streeting in response to a report by the Care Quality Commission report last week, which found two in three maternity units were not safe enough.

Sir Julian Hartley, of NHS Providers, which represents health leaders, said it was important to recognise what the NHS was doing well and the efforts of staff who were working “flat out”.

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“There’s a lot to be proud of despite ongoing concerns and difficulties,” he added.

Thea Stein, chief executive of the Nuffield Trust think tank, who was running an NHS trust until last year, said those working in the NHS recognised the service was struggling and there was a “power” in having problems talked about openly.

But she added: “At the same time language is important. The problem with the phrase ‘broken’ is that people may think something that is broken needs to be thrown away.”

She said she feared that could have an impact on patients, staff and young people who are thinking about a career in the health service.

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“It is important that the government now puts even more emphasis on repair, rebuilding and hope, alongside the ‘broken’ message,” she said.

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The UK takeover system is getting tetchier

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Mating rituals vary across cultures. That is true in finance too. In the UK, the courtship between two companies is a choreographed dance of proposal and rebuff until, with luck, a deal emerges. This back-and-forth is a feature, not a bug, of the system, essentially the local method of price discovery.

Seen in this light, Rightmove is making all the right moves. The UK property listings company has received — and rejected — three bids from Australia’s (Rupert Murdoch-controlled) REA.

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REA complained anew on Wednesday that Rightmove’s board has refused to engage. But the target is simply signalling that it needs to see a higher bid before it opens its books. It does not help that REA is suffering from a disappearing premium, whereby the value of its cash-and-stock bid has been hit by a decline in its own share price.

The UK’s “put up or shut up” rules, which give bidders 28 days to come up with a formal offer after an approach is made public, were designed to stop target companies spending months under siege. But they also encourage bidders to get quickly towards their best price, in REA’s case before next Monday.

Getting to a level the board might recommend, and gaining access to information on a quasi-friendly basis, is the preferred route for most bidders. (True hostiles, going direct to shareholders without the benefits of due diligence, are now a rarity). Still, courtships seem to be becoming more fractious.

Column chart of Average takeover premium for succesful transactions above £500mn showing UK takeover premiums have been rising

Negotiations can be protracted, as in the case of Hargreaves Lansdown which recently sold itself to a private equity consortium for £5.4bn. BHP’s encampment on Anglo American’s lawn earlier this year was hardly cosy.

A tetchier takeover process in part reflects a wider spread between what targets think they are worth and what bidders want to pay. Stock market prices are a less useful starting point given the FTSE 100’s much-bemoaned valuation discount to global indices. UK plc boards, rightly criticised for being too fast to welcome inbound interest, do not want to be seen as rolling over too easily.

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Column chart of Total transaction value £bn showing UK deal values bounced in Q2 2024

Indeed, the average premium required to win a company’s affections rose from 35 per cent in 2019 to more than 50 per cent last year, according to Lex analysis of M&A Monitor data. This year, it has fallen back to about 45 per cent as the FTSE 100 has rallied. Converging expectations on corporate worth may explain why UK deal value is up 65 per cent in the second quarter, on PitchBook’s data.

This is a long way from the 30 per cent standard premium that potential acquirers were traditionally expected to stump up. Bidders for UK companies should take note.

camilla.palladino@ft.com

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I was handed a £7.5k refund after following Martin Lewis’ tip – are you one of thousands owed cash?

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I was handed a £7.5k refund after following Martin Lewis' tip - are you one of thousands owed cash?

HOUSEHOLDS across the UK can challenge their council tax bands and potentially save thousands of pounds.

A Martin Lewis fan has explained how they managed to receive a refund worth £7,500 in this week’s MoneySavingExpert newsletter.

Your council tax payments may also drop after following this tip

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Your council tax payments may also drop after following this tip

They said: “Martin, we challenged our council tax band earlier in the year after watching your show and doing the relevant checks on your website. 

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“Seven months later, it’s been confirmed we’ve gone from Band E to Band D. We’ve also received our refund of overpaid council tax, a whopping £7,500.”

With UK council tax on the rise, a quick and easy check online may reveal if you’re eligible for a significant refund, and lower future costs.

Properties across the UK are allocated a band from A to H and this decides how much council tax you pay.

The more expensive the property, the higher the council tax band.

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However, these bands were created based on property values back in 1991, and many households may find that they should now be in a different band.

You could be on the wrong band if your council tax band is different to your neighbours.

If you challenge the band and are successful and moved to a lower band you could get a refund on incorrect payments from the date you moved to the property and pay less in council tax going forward.

More than one in four people who tried to change their band between 2023 to 2024 were successful, according to government figures.

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How to Qualify for Free or Discounted Council Tax!

However, there are also some risks involved with challenging your council tax that you should be aware of. 

While it is certainly possible you are on a council tax band that is too high, there is a risk you may also be a band too low. 

If you challenge your council tax band and are found out to be on too low of a band, you will be put on a higher band and required to pay more. 

This will not make you popular with your neighbours, as they will also be investigated and potentially moved up a band as well.

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But don’t worry, there are a couple of ways you can work out if you’re on the wrong tax band before officially challenging. 

The first is by checking what band your neighbours are on. Compare your band with homes as similar as possible to yours.

The band of every property in England and Wales is available on tax.service.gov.uk/check-council-tax-band, and the band of every property in Scotland is available via the Scottish Assessors’ Association.

Similar or identical houses in the same neighbourhood should be on the same council tax band.

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A follow-up method is through a valuation check. You will need to work out what your home was worth in 1991, which is when council tax bands were defined.

When doing this, it is also worth checking your neighbouring properties prices in the same year to avoid any anomalies. 

You can find historical sales price information on sites such as Nethouseprices, Zoopla and Rightmove, as well as gov.uk/search-house-prices.

When you know what your home was valued at in 1991, you can compare to the tables below and check it was placed in the right band at the time.

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England:

A – All properties under £40,000

B – £40,001 to £52,000

C – 52,001 to £68,000

D – £68,001 to £88,000

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E –  £88,001 to £120,000

F – £120,001 to £160,000

G – £160,001 to £320,000

H – Over £320,000

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Scotland:

A – All properties under £27,000

B – £27,001 to £35,000

C – £35,001 to £45,000

D – £45,001 to £58,000

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E – £58,001 to £80,000

F – £80,001 to £106,000

G – £106,001 to £212,000

H – Over £212,000

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How to challenge your council tax band

If you think your council tax band is wrong, you could be paying more than you should. Here’s how to challenge it.

In England or Wales head to Gov.uk and contact the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) or in Scotland use the Scottish Assessors Association .

You’ll be asked for evidence that your Council Tax band is wrong and need to give the information when you challenge.

Or, simply pop your postcode onto into the online tool at tax.service.gov.uk, select your address, and follow the link to see if you have grounds to challenge your band. You’ll be guided through a checklist to help make your case.

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Your local assessor will get in touch to review your case.

What are the possible outcomes?

The first potential outcome is that you get told you cannot challenge, but don’t be put off by this. 

Technically speaking, you can only formally challenge your council tax band if you’ve lived in the property for six months or less.

But, Martin Lewis recommends still contacting the VOA with evidence of why you think your band should be changed, and it should decide if it’s enough to review your case.

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The second outcome is that your challenge gets rejected. If you think this is the wrong decision, you have three months to appeal to the Valuation Tribunal. 

For those in Scotland, if you’re formally able to challenge your band, but the challenge can not be resolved by your local assessor within six months, the dispute will then be referred to the Valuation Appeal Committee.

The final outcome is that your challenge gets accepted. You can expect to see your band lowered, and make sure you get a rebate from when you moved into the property, or 1993, whichever is later.

How much can you expect to save on council tax?

If you do succeed in getting your band lowered, then typically you can expect to pay between £100 and £400 less in council tax per year.

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You should also expect a refund that will cover all the years you have been overpaying, backdated to when you first moved into the property. 

Or as far back as when the tax first started in 1993. Backed payments can be worth in the thousands.

LOCAL authorities can offer you a discount or wipe your bill completely depending on your circumstances through council tax support.

You can get a 25% discount on your council tax if you are the only person living in the home or if you live with other people who are classed as “disregarded”.

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Someone is classed as disregarded if they are severely mentally impaired, a carer, in hospital, a care home or hostel, has another main residence, or is a student, youth trainee or apprentice.

For example, if one single adult lives with a student, they can get 25% off their council tax.

If you live with someone who doesn’t have to pay council tax, such as a carer, you could get a reduction of up to 50% too.

And, if you live in an all-student household you can get a 100% discount.

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Pensioners can also get a council tax discount, including those on the Guarantee Credit element of Pension Credit who can get 100% off.

If not, you could still get help if you have a low income and less than £16,000 in savings.

Meanwhile, a pensioner who lives alone also qualifies for a 25% discount.

Low-income households or those on benefits can also apply for a reduction on their council tax.

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Whether you are eligible depends on where you live.

You could also get a deferral if you’re struggling to pay your bill, or you can speak to your council about setting up a payment plan to manage the cost.

Always remember though, if you are struggling you should contact your council as early as possible.

That will avoid your situation deteriorating and landing you in trouble.

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Eurostar could drop popular London route next year – despite only launching six years ago

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Eurostar could scrap the London-Amsterdam route for all of 2025

EUROSTAR could ditch one of the most popular train routes from London next year.

Ongoing maintenance works could see the direct London to Amsterdam route scrapped for the entirety of 2025.

Eurostar could scrap the London-Amsterdam route for all of 2025

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Eurostar could scrap the London-Amsterdam route for all of 2025
Ongoing works in Amsterdam could delay the restart of London services

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Ongoing works in Amsterdam could delay the restart of London servicesCredit: Getty

The direct route has already been suspended since June 15, due to renovations at Amsterdam’s main train station.

Instead, Brits have to travel to Brussels and change there, taking an extra hour.

But plans to restart the direct train in early 2025 may not be possible.

Eurostar CEO Gwendoline Cazenave warned that all trains running to Amsterdam may be scrapped entirely next year.

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This is because it has not yet been confirmed that the international terminal at Amsterdam Centraal station will reopen in time.

She told local Dutch media Het Financieele Dagblad: “We are concerned there are no guarantees or clear commitments about the readiness of the surrounding infrastructure to reconnect Amsterdam and London.” 

“Without clarity on behalf of the Dutch railway network […] Eurostar will be forced to suspend services between Amsterdam and Rotterdam, on the one hand, and London and Paris, on the other, during the course of 2025.

“This will not be Eurostar leaving the Netherlands, this would be Eurostar being pushed out from the Netherlands.”

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She added that the deterioration of the train lines has resulted in “reliability problems, capacity restrictions and particularly inconvenient delays for passengers”.

Trains on the high speed lines have also reduced its top speed since 2023, going down from 99mph to 50mph.

Top 5 Picturesque Train Journeys in Europe

Despite this, Cazenave said they still hoped to restart the services next year, if they can get the go-ahead.

The London-Amsterdam route launched back in 2018.

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This follows Eurostar’s first ever London route back in 1994, running from Waterloo station to Paris and Brussels.

This later changed to London St Pancras in 2007.

A second UK train service was added at Ashford International back in 1996, although this was scrapped during Covid and is unlikely to return.

The UK to Disneyland direct service – which launched in 1996 – has also been scrapped, with Brits now having to change at Lille or Paris.

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Despite this, Cazenave revealed Eurostar’s future plans for new European routes, as well as additional trains being added to the fleet.

But other train operators have revealed they could soon enter the market with UK routes.

Sun Travel’s favourite train journeys in the world

Sun Travel’s journalists have taken their fare share of train journeys on their travels and here they share their most memorable rail experiences.

Davos to Geneva, Switzerland

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“After a ski holiday in Davos, I took the scenic train back to Geneva Airport. The snow-covered mountains and tiny alpine villages that we passed were so beautiful that it felt like a moving picture was playing beyond the glass.” – Caroline McGuire

Tokyo to Kyoto by Shinkansen

“Nothing quite beats the Shinkansen bullet train, one of the fastest in the world. It hardly feels like you’re whizzing along at speed until you look outside and see the trees a green blur. Make sure to book seat D or E too – as you’ll have the best view of Mount Fuji along the way.” Kara Godfrey

London to Paris by Eurostar

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“Those who have never travelled on the Eurostar may wonder what’s so special about a seemingly ordinary train that takes you across the channel. You won’t have to waste a moment and can tick off all the top attractions from the Louvre to the Champs-Élysées which are both less than five kilometres from the Gare du Nord.” – Sophie Swietochowski

Glasgow to Fort William by Scotrail

“From mountain landscapes and serene lochs to the wistful moors, I spent my three-hour journey from Glasgow to Fort William gazing out the window. Sit on the left-hand side of the train for the best views overlooking Loch Lomond.” – Hope Brotherton

Beijing to Ulaanbatar

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“The Trans-Mongolian Express is truly a train journey like no other. It starts amid the chaos of central Beijing before the city’s high-rises give way to crumbling ancient villages and eventually the vast vacant plains of Mongolia, via the Gobi desert. The deep orange sunset seen in the middle of the desert is among the best I’ve witnessed anywhere.” – Ryan Gray

Virgin Trains could launch between the UK and Europe.

And start-up Evolyn has revealed plans to launch train services between London to Paris.

Other routes that have been scrapped are from Ashford International and Disneyland Paris

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Other routes that have been scrapped are from Ashford International and Disneyland ParisCredit: Alamy

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Everyone can see the donkey, most people can see the dog – but only those in the top 1% can find the cat in 12 seconds

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Everyone can see the donkey, most people can see the dog - but only those in the top 1% can find the cat in 12 seconds

EVERYONE can spot the donkey – but only those with 20/20 vision and in the top one per cent can spot the hidden cat in 12 seconds.

While most people can spot the hidden dog, not everyone can spot the hidden cat.

How quickly can you spot the hidden images?

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How quickly can you spot the hidden images?Credit: JagranJosh

It may look simple, but only those with a high IQ can spot all three hidden images in a matter of seconds.

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The image shows a farmer riding a donkey with a sack of goods, while another farmer holds the tail of the farm animals.

Surrounding the animal are shrubs, trees, a farm house and two windmills in the distance.

It might seem a bit daunting at first, but the key is to carefully examine each section of the scene.

Be quick, your 12 seconds start now.

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Meanwhile, why not try some other optical illusions while you scroll?

Test your brain power and solve the questions in this test to reveal if you have a high IQ.

This picture will surely leave you baffled – and you might scratch your head trying to find the correct solution.

Picture puzzles are a form of brain teaser that tests the reader’s critical thinking and problem-solving skills.

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These challenges have the potential to boost intelligence and improve concentration.

You have the mind of a genius & the eyes of a hawk if you can spot the sneaky pug hiding with the dogs in under 9 seconds

If you find this challenge too easy, or enjoy testing your brain, have a look at our other optical illusions.

To make things harder, try figuring out what’s wrong with this image of smiling women as you count their legs in 11 seconds.

How can optical illusions and brainteasers help me?

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Engaging in activities like solving optical illusions and brainteasers can have many cognitive benefits as it can stimulate various brain regions.

Some benefits include:

  • Cognitive stimulation: Engaging in these activities challenges the brain, promoting mental agility and flexibility.
  • Problem-solving skills: Regular practice enhances analytical thinking and problem-solving abilities.
  • Memory improvement: These challenges often require memory recall and can contribute to better memory function.
  • Creativity: They encourage thinking outside the box, fostering creativity and innovative thought processes.
  • Focus and attention: Working on optical illusions and brainteasers requires concentration, contributing to improved focus.
  • Stress relief: The enjoyable nature of these puzzles can act as a form of relaxation and stress relief.

Psychologists at The University of Glasgow found that staring at an optical illusion can improve eye sight by allowing you to see small print.

Escape London says puzzles can also give your mind a great workout and may “boost your brain’s activity” which “reduces the risk of dementia.”

Still haven’t found the cat? What about the dog?

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Here’s a helpful hint: Look for odd shapes hidden in the landscape.

If you’ve found all three hidden objects in less than 12 seconds, well done!

If not, don’t worry. We’ve added the solution down below.

Keep your brain engaged and have a go at our three other illusions.

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Congratulations! You've found the cat and dog

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Congratulations! You’ve found the cat and dog
How quickly can you spot the hidden cheese?

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How quickly can you spot the hidden cheese?
Can you find the missing dog in 11 seconds?

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Can you find the missing dog in 11 seconds?
Can you find the key in less than seven seconds?

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Can you find the key in less than seven seconds?
Did you spot the hidden cheese?

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Did you spot the hidden cheese?
Spotted! The hidden dog blended in with the carpet

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Spotted! The hidden dog blended in with the carpet
Found it! Did you find the missing key?

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Found it! Did you find the missing key?

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Expansion of Wealth Connect scheme gets Chinese funds flowing

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China’s Wealth Management Connect — an investment initiative connecting mainland China to Hong Kong, and viewed by many as a liberalisation of China’s strict capital controls — attracted a surge of inflows into high-interest-rate deposits earlier this year. These flows from China came after regulators broadened the range of products that could be offered, following years of underwhelming take-up of the Connect initiative.

However, the programme has begun to lose momentum again, as the US Federal Reserve embarks on a cycle of interest rate cuts — causing market participants to urge a further relaxation of the rules, to boost its appeal.

Launched in 2021 as a pilot scheme, Wealth Management Connect allows residents of Hong Kong, Macau, and nine cities in the southern Guangdong province — a population of more than 86mn — to invest directly in wealth management products across borders.

It is an addition to existing schemes that connect bond and equity markets in Hong Kong and the mainland, and was aimed at helping large numbers of mainland Chinese investors to build up more global asset exposures. Typically, mainland investors are subject to strict quota controls governing the movement of funds in or out of the country.

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For the first few years, the response to the scheme was slow, according to banks and industry insiders. Therefore, in February, regulators rolled out an enhanced version called Wealth Management Connect 2.0, which tripled individual investor quotas: from Rmb1mn ($142,000) to Rmb3mn ($427,000), and expanded the range of offerings to mutual funds and deposits.

It had a marked effect. The southbound flow of funds — ie, mainland Chinese investors’ inflows into the scheme — reached more than Rmb68bn ($9.7bn) between March and July this year, according to official data, which is more than 4.5 times the total southbound flow from the launch of the scheme in 2021 up to the end of February this year.

These enhancements to Wealth Management Connect also supercharged the proportion of the southbound flow limit — which is Rmb150bn at any given time — actually used by investors: it rose from less than 2 per cent to about 10 per cent after the changes were made. But interest in northbound investments — where Hong Kong and overseas investors are allowed to buy mainland products — remained lacklustre.

Bank of China (Hong Kong), the territory’s leading player in scheme — which now makes more than 350 financial products available via the southbound scheme — says client numbers have surged by more than 50 per cent in the first half of this year

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Joyce Leung, assistant general manager of the bank’s personal digital banking product department, believes the enhanced measures are having a positive impact: the bank has found that the proportion of fund transactions with value over Rmb1mn via the southbound scheme has increased.

At China Asset Management, one of the leading Chinese mutual fund houses, investors have shown significant interest in offerings ranging from multi-currency money market funds to bond funds, equity funds, and exchange traded funds, according to the company.

Investor numbers and usage surged for the Wealth Management Connect
this yea

However, while China initially aimed to open up cross border investment channels, market participants highlight the growth limitations of the Wealth Management Connect scheme — for example, its over-reliance on foreign currency denominated deposits.

“That tells you two things,” explains Ajay Mathur, head of the consumer banking group and wealth management at DBS Bank Hong Kong. “First, it’s clearly driven by rate arbitrage, and second, there’s a lack of active investment advice.”

Mathur warns that this reliance on arbitrage opportunities is unsustainable because they only last for a short period of time. “Now, with the [interest] rates coming down, and with the Fed rate changes . . . the arbitrage might drop,” he says. 

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A drop in rate arbitrage transactions could push investors into other solutions, though. For example, they may seek bonds or multi asset products after their current fixed-term deposits mature, suggests Freeman Tsang, head of Intermediaries at Asia ex-Japan of Pictet Asset Management.

“In the short run, you won’t see too much of the flows to go back into [rate arbitrage],” he says. “But what we do see is that, if the interest rate continues to come down to a certain level, people will start to think about diversification into other investments to achieve their expected returns.” It will, however, take time for that to mature into reality, Tsang adds.

Restrictions on the way banks can sell products through their branches still draw criticism, however, as they limit active marketing and the provision of active investment advice to clients in mainland China.

Standard Chartered, one of the participating banks in the Wealth Management Connect scheme, says that while many Greater Bay Area clients are interested in the products on offer — with a lot of them keen on overseas investment funds — a substantial number lack knowledge of overseas markets.

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“A typical investment portfolio structuring involves a two-way conversation,” stresses Mathur. “The current restrictions prevent banks from interacting proactively, which is why most of the funds end up in deposits.”

Nevertheless, there is optimism about the program’s future. A further increase in inflows could be triggered by the forthcoming expansion of distributors — a group of at least five to six Chinese securities firms with presence in Hong Kong that have a wider client profile and will be better able to identify suitable clients for *investment products*, according to Tsang.

“I hope they can continue to expand into bigger cities like Shanghai and Beijing,” he says. “We always want to tap into the bigger cities and we do see demand from them. Having said that, there’s a lot more work to be done.” 

Authorities have been considering further relaxations for a possible Wealth Connect 3.0. A Hong Kong government spokesperson says local officials and regulators have been in close communication with the industry and China’s regulatory authorities on the implementation of the wealth link.

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The spokesperson adds that it would “continue to work with the industry to step up investor education in the Greater Bay Area . . . so as to enhance investors’ knowledge” and explore further enhancement measures to increase investors’ choices.

Industry leaders are in favour. Speaking at a Bloomberg event in June, senior executives from UBS and HSBC called for deeper ties between Hong Kong and mainland China to meet the evolving needs of private banking clients.

China’s macroeconomic slowdown could lead to more “people to consider moving money out”, warns Mathur, “and that is where it gets difficult . . . [In terms of] how the regulator perceives the Wealth Connect.”

But, importantly, the Wealth Management Connect scheme operates as a so-called “closed-loop” system — meaning the scheme will not allow investors to eventually move cash out of China to other countries.

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“If money comes into Hong Kong, the pipe at Hong Kong does not open and does not allow money to suddenly move to Japan, America, Switzerland, or into different products than what it was intended to cover,” points out Mathur. “From a capital control point of view, there is much less fear that money is going to exit the country.”

“Open up it will — it’s not a matter of ‘if’, it’s a question of ‘when’,” he says. “With each incremental enhancement, you will see an opening up of the sales process, [of] the product suites . . . of marketing rules and marketing processes — these are [the] things that play a [big] part.”

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