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Prison isn’t working for women, ministers say. Can it be fixed?

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Prison isn't working for women, ministers say. Can it be fixed?
BBC Montage image of handcuffs with one in the shape as the gender symbol for femalesBBC

There are more than 3,600 woman prisoners in England and Wales – a number the Ministry of Justice projects will rise to 4,200 by November 2027.

But Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood believes “prison isn’t working” for women. She told the Labour Party conference that after serving a short custodial sentence, a woman is “significantly more likely” to reoffend than one given a non-custodial sentence.

Meanwhile prisons minister James Timpson has said he sees “lots of very ill women” on visits. This echoes research which found 82% of women prisoners reported they had some form of mental health problem, and data pointing to a rising number of self-harm incidents in women’s prisons.

The majority of imprisoned women have experienced domestic violence.

So what can be done? Two government-commissioned publications, the Corston Report (2007) and the Ministry of Justice’s Female Offender Strategy (2018) recommended that in some cases, instead of prison sentences, the use of women’s residential centres, which focus on trauma support and where children can sometimes stay, or community sentencing, would be more appropriate.

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The new Labour government has announced measures including a Women’s Justice Board to reduce imprisonment numbers. Under the Conservatives, a 2021 white paper outlined plans for mandatory staff training in women’s prisons to reduce self-harm and better support for pregnant women.

InDepth has spoken to people with experience of the criminal justice system to hear how they think it can be reformed for female offenders.

A red circle with a picture of April Smith, Criminology & Psychology, Portsmouth University

Most women are imprisoned for nonviolent, non-serious offences, and so they are not really a threat to public safety. They would benefit more from community alternatives.

Women with short-term sentences, six months or less, shouldn’t be in prison. In that time you’re not going to achieve any meaningful change or real engagement with rehabilitation. So it doesn’t serve a purposeful function for society or for women.

Over half of women prisoners go on to reoffend. Women are going straight back into the same environment, same circumstances, that they were in before going into prison – such as homelessness, or substance abuse.

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It is true that prison can offer structure when a lot of these women live very chaotic lives. There are also some good examples of prisons with programs that specifically deal with trauma. However, women’s centres are a better approach as they are more focused on addressing the causes of offending – for instance, underlying issues such as trauma.

There’s always a risk that the government might lean towards populist measures that lock more people up, but I think there is increasing public awareness about the need to do things differently because of the reoffending rates.

Unsurprisingly, the key challenge is funding and investment. There is a growing number of women’s centres but a lack of funding means that there aren’t enough of them.

A red circle with a picture of Scarlett Roberts, Churchill Fellow and former prisoner

I was in Eastwood Park Prison from March to July 2022 for perverting the course of justice. I was under the impression that prisons were supposed to be rehabilitative facilities that help nurture people back into society. But that’s simply not the case.

During my time in prison, we were locked in our cells for 23 hours a day, with little to no access to education. Prisoners were supposed to have maths and English lessons, but the prison was so under-resourced that prison officers would never open the door.

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We’d only have an hour outside our cells, and we would have to choose between having a shower, exercising, meeting other people, or being outdoors. One hour was simply not enough time to get anything meaningful done.

After leaving prison, I realised how broken the system is. A lot of the people going into prison were very young and many had grown up in care. They’ve been dispatched straight from the care system to the criminal justice system. While personal accountability for their choices is essential, I think it’s really important to start discussions on how we can better serve people before they end up in prison.

Preventative measures are important but I want to be clear – I don’t agree with abolishing prisons. Violent and dangerous offenders should be removed for the safety of wider society, for the sake of the victims and potentially for their own safety. But what we do to those people in prison needs to change.

A red circle with a picture of David Spencer, Policy Exchange and former Met Police DCI

Some women are violent, sexual or prolific offenders and should be in prison. The purpose of prison is fourfold – to punish, protect the public, deter crime and give the opportunity for rehabilitation.

Just 4% of people in prison are women and they are a very different population to the other 96% – they are less likely to be violent or prolific offenders. We do need more prison spaces, but those places should be filled with violent or prolific men, rather than women who are not.

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A female prison officer walks down the corridor of the communal area inside HM Prison Styal

An alternative to prisons like this one are women’s residential centres, which offer trauma support and allow mothers to stay with their children

We should also consider issues which apply to women. For example, pregnancy.

The criminal justice system is in an utterly shambolic state. A proposal for a series of residential women’s centres, which came from the Female Offender Strategy in 2018, has – with a couple of exceptions – barely got off the ground. We have the biggest Crown Court backlog on record. We know what helps reduce reoffending but we systematically fail to do it.

Partly this is funding, but also there is the ineffectiveness of community sentencing, and as part of that, drug rehabilitation, education and employment programs.

Locking up non-violent and non-prolific women is not the only solution. Key to deterring people from committing crime is catching more of them, doing it quicker, and potentially sentencing them to something other than prison if they’re not violent or prolific offenders.

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A red circle with a picture of Lucy Russell, Head of Policy and Public Affairs, Women in Prison

There must be a gender-specific approach to criminal justice, as women end up in prison because of things that are gender-specific in society.

If you’re only thinking about working with women at the point at which they’re sent to prison, you’re starting too late. The real solutions are earlier upstream, where change needs to happen.

Women are being sent to prison essentially as a punishment for being poor and falling into debt – they are the shock absorbers of poverty. Survivors of domestic abuse are criminalised.

They often experience horrendous mental health problems. The list just goes on. The system is completely broken.

Labour‘s Women’s Justice Board is welcome if it can really do something. In the long term, we want to stop women being criminalised for the discriminatory experiences they have.

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Any assumption that you can do rehabilitation or quality therapeutic work in prison is not true – they’re not safe or healing environments.

Prisons are terrifying. They completely remove your identity. Several women just in the last two weeks have told us entering prison was like entering a mental asylum from the 1800s – people screaming through the night, people banging their heads on the walls. It really is hellish.

Just because you have a gender lens, it doesn’t mean you don’t look at men. Having a gender lens means that you understand how disproportionately many women offenders are themselves victims.

A red circle with a picture of Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Labour MP for Clapham and Brixton Hill

Prisons are meant to be about rehabilitation, but now they’ve become purely about punishment. I understand that people want to see those who commit crimes pay the price, but a lot of women that are in prison are most likely victims of serious offences themselves.

There also needs to be special consideration for women that have children and better mental health support for them. You have a lot of women self-harming because of the conditions in prisons.

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There are a lot of societal issues that cause people to end up being in prison. People find themselves in poverty and do things that are questionable.

But it’s just not the case that everybody who does something awful ends up in prison. Black people are twice as likely to be arrested, remanded and sentenced than their white counterparts. If you’re more likely to first face criminal charges and custodial sentences, then you are most likely going to have to deal with the impact of prisons.

When I talk about issues that are happening with women when they’re in prison, I’m talking about women overall. But we can’t ignore the disparities that black women face when they face criminal charges.

A red circle with a picture of Kit Malthouse, Conservative MP for North West Hampshire and former Minister for Policing

The way we operate the probation system and the wider offender management system is frankly sloppy. We are not disciplined or rigorous enough in our expectations of offenders. These women have committed a crime. There are victims to whom we have a duty of care, and punishment as well as rehabilitation is important.

If we want to be a functioning liberal society, we have to be one that operates with a high level of trust. No matter how petty the crime, we must be strict. Otherwise we risk undermining the wider sense of trust.

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However, we need to think carefully about our approach to penal policy because we still have a early 20th Century, semi-Victorian attitude, whereas behavioural science and research on offending and rehabilitation has moved on quite significantly.

It’s also important to acknowledge the differences between male and female offenders. Men are generally more prone to violence and differences in general behavioural traits should be reflected in our approach.

While I believe there needs to be a penal element to the justice system, there are smarter ways of dealing with somebody than just shoving them in prison.

For example, there are a proportion of women who are in prison because they are perpetrating acquisitive crime to feed alcohol addiction. We can use sobriety tagging, which has been remarkably successful, to keep people sober and so not offending and out of prison, combined with unpaid work in the community as a better outcome for victims and perpetrators alike.

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A red circle with a picture of Bishop Rachel Treweek, C of E Bishop for HM Prisons

If the public knew who’s in prison, what it costs, what that’s doing in the long run, they would want change. Prison is not succeeding in bringing around transformational change through rehabilitative work.

Most women in prison are victims as well as offenders and in prison because of what they’ve experienced in their relationships.

Some need to be dealt with securely, but we need to address issues in the community in order to stop reoffending, as most are there for short sentences, and go back through the revolving door.

I never want to say “let’s just let women off”, but prison only sets up more layers of trauma. That there are still pregnant women in prison is unacceptable.

There are alternatives, such as women’s centres and community sentences. Problem-solving courts are being trialled, looking at how to reduce reoffending – we need more of that approach.

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So many reports just end up on ministers’ shelves. Even if you don’t care about the women, you probably do care about taxpayer money. What we’re doing makes no financial sense.

If we could get this right for women, we could bring in some of the same principles to the men’s estate.

Top photo credit: Getty

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Teacher’s Innovative Approach Humanizes Asylum-Seeker Students

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In an article for Rethinking Schools, New York teacher Juan P. Córdova shares his experience teaching a “traditional bilingual classroom” of fourth- and fifth-grade students whose families were seeking asylum in the United States. For example, Córdova renamed home visits “family connections,” acknowledging that while not all of his students may have a place to call home just yet, “family is what they still had, what kept them going in their journey, and what they believed in and could trust.” Creating connections with students through the inclusion of culture, Córdova says, establishes trust and care.

For every student whose first language isn’t English, problems learning within the school system become increasingly more common. Next to the language, there are differences in family traditions, and social and cultural backgrounds, along with possible trauma originating from their journey to the United States.

Córdova works to gain the trust of his students and families by sharing his own experiences of migrating to the United States and opening the floor for them to do the same. He creates a space for their traumas, efforts, and aspirations to be heard and acknowledged in the way he runs his class; this has improved the children’s success in their transitional bilingual program. 

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Córdova states, “Grounding the curriculum in students’ language and culture gave us a shared foundation for talking about other topics—history of the United States, Indigenous people, African American history, math, social and emotional health, etc.” 

Córdova incorporates stories about immigrant children that his students can relate to and builds meaningful connections with his students to make sure he keeps their cultures present. Individual immigrant experiences, traumas, and abilities influence the learning process and must be taken into account, rather than being disregarded through the use of generalized terms for asylum-seeking students.

Córdova’s knowledge about his new students and their family backgrounds helped him eliminate that mentality, “I wondered what my new students felt, what they thought. I felt an urgent need to know my students, their families, and their stories.” And he learned “how rich their lives were before they became ‘migrants.’”

In corporate media, asylum-seekers or refugees are often talked about as one homogenous group. Getting the perspective from someone who built interpersonal connections with people in these circumstances can change readers’ attitudes. Vague language and generalizations can be incredibly dehumanizing, often minimizing how policy changes affect actual individuals and groups subject to them.

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Córdova’s effort to learn these students’ stories impacts their opportunities for success. Additionally, acknowledging that migrant students have different needs when it comes to learning, can make their transition to a new culture smoother. Córdova’s method of experiencing immigrant culture first-hand is mostly not reported in corporate media and is therefore not implemented by other schools around the country.

Source: Juan P. Córdova, “Embracing Asylum-Seeking Students and Their Families,” Rethinking Schools, Fall 2023.

Student Researchers: Izzy Hazard, Mascha Leonie Lang, Paulina Ortiz Orive, Julia Owen, and Michael Scott (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

Faculty Evaluators: Allison Butler and Jeewon Chon (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

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How fast is US inflation falling?

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A series of strong economic data has persuaded investors swing behind US central banker hints that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates gradually in the coming months. Next week’s inflation figures mark the next point to shape investor thinking. 

Thursday sees consumer price inflation figures with producer price numbers due on Friday. Before both, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, due on Wednesday, should reveal more about the debate that led the bank’s rate-setting committee to cut rates by half a percentage point in its first divided decision in almost two decades. 

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A blowout payrolls report last week showed the US adding 240,000 jobs in September, far more than forecast, and pushing futures contracts to imply about a 90 per cent probability that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by a quarter-point when it meets in early November. 

Thursday’s consumer price index is expected to support that with only muted price pressures seen last month. The core index — stripping out volatile food and energy — is expected to have risen 0.2 per cent month-on-month, according to economists polled by Reuters, while the headline reading is predicted to rise 0.1 per cent on the same basis. Year on year, that would put the two at 3.2 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively, estimate analysts at Barclays.

“Inflation outcomes along the lines of our forecasts should reinforce the [Fed’s] confidence that the disinflation process is intact and would likely keep the focus on upcoming labour market data and other indicators of activity,” US economist Pooja Sriram wrote in a note to clients. Jennifer Hughes

Is the yen carry trade back?

An unexpected rate hike in August led to a dramatic unwinding of the so-called yen carry trade, through which investors and speculators borrow yen to fund trades in higher yielding currencies and assets.

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Comments from Japan’s incoming prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, suggesting the economy is not ready for further rate rises, has been taken by some investors as a sign that it is safe to re-enter the trade.

The yen fell almost 3 per cent last week to ¥146 to the US dollar, triggering a small rally in Japanese equities, particularly export-heavy companies that benefit from a weaker currency.

“Investors took those comments as a green light to rebuild the carry trade”, said Wei Li, head of multi-asset investments based in China at BNP Paribas.

“We are in a risk-on environment”, he said, adding that demand to borrow yen to fund riskier trades was coming back as confidence in the US economy remains strong.

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Tomochika Kitaoka, Nomura’s chief equity strategist in Japan, warned that the data behind whether investors were piling back into the carry trade was “imperfect”, adding there was evidence that some hedge funds had returned to net short positions in the yen.

“Before the Japanese snap election [on October 27], it’s a relatively safe window to review the carry trade”, added Li. Arjun Neil Alim

Is the UK economy growing again?

The UK economy is expected to return to growth in August after two months of stagnation, according to official data published on Friday.

The robust expansion of the UK economy at the beginning of the year has strengthened the argument for a gradual approach to reducing interest rates until clearer indications of a decrease in the high inflation in the services sector. In August, services in inflation rose to 5.6 per cent from 5.2 per cent in the previous month.

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However, economic growth in the second quarter was revised down to 0.5 per cent, marking a slowdown from the 0.7 per cent in the previous quarter. Incoming data suggest growth could slow to 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, but the figures for August will bring greater clarity. Economists polled by Reuters expect that GDP expanded by 0.2 per cent month-on-month in August.

Last week, the governor of the Bank of England said bank’s rate-setters could be “a bit more aggressive” in lowering borrowing costs. However, the BoE’s chief economists warned against rapid rate cuts saying: “It will be important to guard against the risk of cutting rates either too far or too fast” and cautioned for a “gradual withdrawal”.

Ellie Henderson, an economist at Investec, is more optimistic than the consensus, expecting a rebound in retail sales and the absence of junior doctor strikes to fuel a 0.3 per cent expansion.

She said that while activity in the autumn might be temporarily depressed due to households and businesses holding off on large purchases and investments ahead of the Budget on October 30, the monetary policy easing cycle and strong growth in real household disposable income will “continue to support economic momentum”. Valentina Romei

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The £2.99 item that doctors swear by to avoid ‘intense pain’ during long flights

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Doctors have urged passengers to pick up a simple £2.99 item to avoid pain during flights

DOCTORS have urged passengers to pick up a simple £2.99 item to avoid pain during flights.

Many flyers can experience sinus pain when on a flight – caused by changes in pressure.

Doctors have urged passengers to pick up a simple £2.99 item to avoid pain during flights

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Doctors have urged passengers to pick up a simple £2.99 item to avoid pain during flightsCredit: Getty

This is caused aerosinusitis and, unlike “aeroplane ear“, which can be solved by popping your ears, it doesn’t have an easy fix.

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However, doctors say that simple congestion relief medicine can do the trick – which can be picked up for as little as £2.99.

Dr Richard Lebowitz, an ear, nose, and throat (ENT) doctor at NYU Langone Medical Center, told the Thrillist website: “The sinuses are air-filled spaces – that is, empty spaces – in the bones of your face, and they have little openings in them, so they can equalize pressure.

“They’re normally just always open, but they can get blocked from swelling or inflammation of the sinus lining.”

Dr Richard explained that this could cause intense pain for flyers.

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He said:  “The sinus needs to equalize pressure, too. But there’s no way for it to do it, so it just keeps getting worse and worse over the course of that descent. It can be really excruciating at times.”

Moving on to the simple treatment, Dr Richard said: “You can try to reduce the swelling of the membranes that can block the opening, so that would mean using the same things you’d use if you have this problem with your ears – Rin and Sudafed.”

He added that in extreme cases, doctors may prescribe oral steroids for inflammation – and in even more extreme cases, a surgical procedure can be undertaken.

He said: “It’s very easy to fix the problem if you’re someone who has this regularly and flies a lot or professionally.

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“You have to open up those sinus drainage halfway surgically. Once you do that, the problem goes away.”

Aerosinusitis can be extremely uncomfortable for some passengers.

Erica Klauber, 39, recalled experiencing severe pain and even fearing she was having an aneurysm while on a business trip in 2013.

She said:  “I remember looking at the guy next to me.

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“I was like, ‘Should I reach out and tell him? Do I have the faculties to tell him that this is it?’”

However Dr Richard reassured travellers that as painful as may feel, aerosinusitis is “not really a big deal”, adding: “Once the pain has resolved, the problem is resolved.”

He added that while many patients fear their heads might explode, “that isn’t a real thing. Your sinus cannot explode or implode. It just hurts a lot.”

What is sinusitis?

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Symptoms of sinusitis:

  • Pain, swelling and tenderness around your cheeks, eyes or forehead
  • Blocked or runny nose
  • Reduced sense of smell
  • Green or yellow mucus from your nose
  • High temperature
  • Headache
  • Toothache
  • Bad breath
  • Cough
  • Feeling of pressure in the ears

Treatments for sinusitis:

  • Getting plenty of rest
  • Drinking plenty of fluids
  • Taking painkillers, such as paracetamol or ibuprofen (do not give aspirin to children under 16)
  • Avoiding things that trigger your allergies
  • Not smoking
  • Cleaning your nose with a salt water solution
  • Decongestant nasal sprays or drops
  • Salt water nasal sprays or solutions to rinse out the inside of your nose

Source: NHS

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When the Media Battlefield and the Home Front Collide

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When the Media Battlefield and the Home Front Collide

A significant part of my professional working life has been spent at HonestReporting. I’ve worked through far too many crises, including several major IDF military operations, mass-casualty terror attacks, and numerous incidents that made the front pages of every international newspaper around the globe.

In this sphere, you have to come to grips with the constant fight ahead. You may win critical battles, but the war itself—a war beyond the military battlefield—is one you may never fully win. This is a fight for Israel’s legitimacy and its right to be treated as just another state among the nations.

The past year has been one of the hardest I’ve ever experienced, not just because of the relentless attacks in the international media on Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas terrorists who carried out the worst atrocity against the Jewish people since the Holocaust. It’s also the overwhelming antisemitism and abuse that floods social media—things I force myself to see and respond to every day.

It’s the inability to separate my work from the harsh reality Israelis are living through—because I’m one of them. In a country this small, it’s almost a cliché to say everyone is connected to someone directly affected by the situation. But it’s the truth.

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I live in Modi’in, a city of 100,000 situated exactly halfway between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. It’s a place proud of its distinction as having the highest percentage of 18-year-olds answering the mandatory call to serve in the IDF.

Tragically, in the days after October 7, it became clear that several of those young soldiers had been brutally killed inside their bases, including some from my own neighborhood. I’ve lived in the same house for 14 years, yet had never met the neighbors two doors down—until I attended the shiva for their teenage granddaughter who fell that day. At other times, the streets of our neighborhood would fill with residents standing silently, holding Israeli flags, as convoys carried the families of the fallen to lay their loved ones to rest in the local cemetery—a heartbreaking scene echoed across the country.

In my late 40s, I’m at an age where the soldiers on the frontlines are both my peers and the children of many friends and acquaintances. In my position, I receive constant updates from various governmental and non-governmental organizations, including the IDF, police, and Magen David Adom emergency responders. Far too often, I’d wake up to an IDF notification about the latest casualties. Sometimes, a name would stand out and I’d pray it wasn’t the child of a friend or colleague. Tragically, sometimes it was.

The husband of a former colleague and the son of a family friend, both killed in Gaza. A cousin from my extended family, stabbed to death while serving as a Border Policewoman in Jerusalem’s Old City. The pain and grief are beyond words.

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HonestReporting is a microcosm of the country as a whole. One colleague has been on army reserve duty for over 200 days, leaving his wife and two small children to manage without him, while our organization is left without a key team member. Another colleague’s husband has spent many days in uniform, leaving her to care for their baby alone. Everyone is affected in some way, and we are no different from countless workplaces disrupted by the mandatory call to serve.

I will always consider it a privilege to have a level of insider access that many Israelis don’t. At the end of November, I was invited to a breakfast at a foreign ambassador’s residence, alongside colleagues from other organizations and some family members of the hostages.

We sat and listened as the families shared the stories of their loved ones, still held captive in Gaza. At one point, an attendee broke down in tears. She quickly apologized, wondering aloud how she could be the one crying when others in the room had brothers, sisters, husbands, wives, and children being held by Hamas—yet somehow, they managed to keep their composure while fighting for their release.

There was no shame in her tears. It’s hard for those outside to fully grasp the deep bonds that connect both Israelis and the broader global Jewish community, or the simple truth that this catastrophe touches nearly every one of us in some way.

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In the weeks following October 7, I had the opportunity to visit Sderot and several kibbutzim near the Gaza border. It felt like stepping into a vast crime scene, frozen in time since that horrific day. Many of HonestReporting’s staff have been there, witnessing the devastation firsthand, so we can accurately convey to the world the barbarity of what happened there.

Israel is a country still gripped by trauma, and there’s no sign of it easing. Behind every article, video, and social media post is a member of HonestReporting’s staff, living the reality of a nation at war—where the frontlines are also the home front. Workdays spent behind computers are often interrupted by sirens and frantic runs to safe rooms. A job focused on handling bad news becomes indistinguishable from the constant barrage of terrible events that flood our senses.

In the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ rampage, I believed Israel might have three or four days before the global narrative turned against us. In truth, I’m not sure we even had that.

Today, we continue fighting against media bias and anti-Israel slander—not just because it’s our job or career, but because it’s our responsibility as proud Israelis. We’ve been given the privilege to serve our country and people in the best way we know how.

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Liked this article? Follow HonestReporting on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and TikTok to see even more posts and videos debunking news bias and smears, as well as other content explaining what’s really going on in Israel and the region.

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To really change the EU, the northern flank must take the lead

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The EU is stuck in a paradox. Virtually everyone agrees that most of Mario Draghi’s recommendations for raising productivity growth are good ones. Yet hardly anyone expects that member states will muster the agreement to pool the sovereignty and resources needed to realise them.

The reasons are many. Some of Draghi’s most consequential ideas have long been bedevilled by the political differences of 27 countries, national commercial rivalries or by leaders’ unwillingness to prioritise what often come down to highly technical measures — especially against vocal domestic constituencies.

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One or more of these reasons have so far held back the banking and capital markets union (CMU). They have also delayed bigger joint investments in carbon transition and defence, completing the single market, and making international economic policy more strategic without losing the benefits of Europe’s openness.

On top of it all, Europe’s traditional Franco-German integration motor looks as obsolescent as an internal combustion engine in China. Paris is paralysed by elections that produced a parliament without a majority; Berlin by a government that has long since fallen out of favour with voters and even, it seems, with itself. Even where they ostensibly agree — a year ago they published a joint road map to CMU — they are not propelling the EU forward.

If anything is going to get done, it will not be by traditional methods. What if, instead, one could identify a group of nations that trusted each other enough and had sufficiently similar policy preferences to form a “coalition of the willing” for the deeper integration Draghi and others call for? Provisions in the EU treaties for “enhanced co-operation” allow as few as nine countries to do so with the full support of EU institutions when broader agreement is elusive.

So look north. The three Baltic and three Nordic EU members already collaborate as the “Nordic-Baltic Six”. The Nordics have had passport-free travel and free movement of people for 70 years. The region’s countries see eye-to-eye in areas from financial regulation and fiscal matters to defence, security, trade and climate.

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Add in Ireland and the Netherlands to regroup what some years ago was known as “the New Hanseatic League”, and you have the EU’s most developed capital markets. Together, these eight approach France in population. They match it in economic size. And they have strength in numbers.

It is not hard to imagine a cohesive bloc centred on the “NB6” recruiting enough other countries — maybe different ones for different policy areas — to maintain the nine-country quorum for enhanced co-operation.

Such a coalition could start with two crucial ingredients for a more dynamic European economy: CMU (more common rules, supervision and financial trading) and a “28th regime” of corporate law as an opt-in alternative to national incorporation for companies wanting to do business and raise funds at scale.

The economic prize is evident. An already innovative region with better-working capital markets than the rest of Europe would boost the ability of EU entrepreneurs to raise capital and scale up activity without having to move across the Atlantic. The region’s financial sectors would benefit.

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There are political advantages, too. These countries could build something they want without being held up by the need to compromise with the wider bloc. To be more ambitious about it, the mere prospect of such a coalition might ungum deadlock as other states fear being left behind. Alternatively, others would come in later, but on terms the early adopters had already defined. There are big first-mover advantages to being pioneers.

The irony is that, more often than not, these nations have been like-minded in putting a brake on integration, not furthering it. So this approach would require a profound change of outlook for Europe’s northern flank. Rather than small-country bit players suspicious of the continental powers, the region would need to see itself as a leader of Europe in a newly dangerous world. Also, the European Commission would have to welcome enhanced co-operation as a lever for progress, not a threat.

But the leadership for this exists. The likes of Finland’s president, the deeply pro-European Alexander Stubb could take the initiative for leaders in the region. They should dare to inspire their citizens to be agents of change rather than a wary resistance to the EU’s traditional powers. If successful, such inspiration would not be contained in the EU’s northern flank. Rise to the challenge together, and they could transform the politics of an entire continent.

martin.sandbu@ft.com

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Is Reza Pahlavi Iran’s Key to Democracy?

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Reza Pahlavi

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi ruled Iran as the Shah from 1941 to 1979. While his regime had Western support, it was not democratic. The Pahlavi regime’s authoritarian behavior led to the alienation of many Iranians and resulted in the 1979 Revolution of 1979 and its takeover by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a Shia religious leader living in exile in Paris at the time. After the revolution, many of the Shah’s wealthy supporters emigrated to California and formed an influential community on the West Coast of the United States.

For years, followers of Reza Pahlavi, the Shah’s son and the former Iranian crown prince, have advocated for a transition from an Islamofascist dictatorship to a monarchy for Iran, almost similar to what happened in Spain. They compare Pahlavi to Juan Carlos, who ascended the throne and abolished the dictatorship with the support of Franco’s military.

Pahlavi followers claim he can achieve the same with the support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Pahlavi himself has stated many times that he is in touch with the Iranian regime and has been open to IRGC overtures.

Spain’s transition from the dictatorship of Francisco Franco to a constitutional monarchy under King Juan Carlos I was a pivotal moment in Spanish history. Franco ruled Spain as a right-wing military dictator following his overthrow of the left-wing republic in the Spanish Civil War (1936–1939). Ultranationalism, authoritarianism and repression and persecution of political opposition characterized his regime. Before his death in 1975, Franco designated the exiled Prince Juan Carlos de Borbón as his successor, hoping that he would perpetuate the ultranationalist regime.

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Contrasting Iran and Spain’s political landscapes

Juan Carlos dismantled the authoritarian regime and moved Spain towards democracy instead of following in Franco’s footsteps. The first step was the Political Reform Act of 1976, which allowed for the dismantling of Francoist institutions and paved the way for democratic elections. In 1977, the legalization of political parties led to the first free elections since the 1930s. Subsequently, a new democratic constitution was drafted and approved by a popular referendum in 1978, establishing Spain as a democratic parliamentary monarchy and guaranteeing fundamental rights and freedoms for all citizens.

However, Iran today is far from Spain, and there are fundamental differences between the two countries. The most significant is that the IRGC is not a regular military like Spain’s army was towards the end of Franco’s rule. The Guards are more akin to the SS in Nazi Germany and the Red Army in the Soviet Union, created with the specific purpose of enforcing the ideological agenda of their totalitarian regime. This makes them dependent on the regime’s core belief system, values and interests to stay relevant.

Even today, the Islamist regime’s warmongering across the Middle East and crimes against humanity in Iran and around the world deeply involve the IRGC, a US- and Canadian-designated “state terrorist organization” that is also likely to be designated by the EU. It is bent on the defeat of the United States, the destruction of Israel and the conquest of the Arab world. As such, the IRGC cannot possibly provide the building block for a democracy or even a normal regime in Iran.

The general behavior of Pahlavi’s Iranian supporters has not proved promising for democracy, either. His associates and followers have started a regime of oppression in exile even before getting to power in Iran. They have assaulted non-Pahlavist protesters during anti-regime demonstrations abroad, ran campaigns of harassment and intimidation against journalists and democracy activists, pushed IRGC talking points about political prisoners and Iran’s ethnic minorities and welcomed all kinds of nefarious regime affiliates, including antisemitic IRGC members, among their ranks.

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The reality of Iran’s political transition

To cap it all, Pahlavi himself recently rejected democracy and instead suggested that he roots for some kind of an authoritarian regime. By erroneously comparing Iran to Afghanistan and putting forward a fallacious essentialist argument, Pahlavi claimed that Iran’s society, like Afghanistan, has its own “traditions, norms and means of governance” and imposing an “inauthentic Western construct” like “democracy” on it will lead to anarchy similar to Afghanistan. While the West and most of the free world widely praised the recent nationwide “Woman, Life, Freedom Revolution” in Iran for its progressive values, Pahlavi boldly made that argument to the contrary.

Pahlavi’s willingness to blatantly distort the truth about Iran and what most Iranians want explains why he and his supporters were disturbed by the Woman, Life, Freedom Revolution in the first place. Not only did they not fully support it, but they also took issue with many aspects of it because the progressive nature of that revolution nullified the Pahlavist narrative regarding the “backwardness” of Iranian society to legitimize an authoritarian regime, most likely in the form of an absolutist monarchy with Reza Pahlavi as its Shah.

Unlike Spain, Iran would not transition from fascism to democracy even if they put the prince on the throne and allowed the IRGC to continue to exist. The Guards are unlikely to relinquish power and become a regular army subordinated to a constitutional system. Instead, they would exploit their newfound legitimacy as Pahlavi’s praetorians to continue their campaign of terror in Iran and abroad.

Pahlavi himself would serve as a figurehead to legitimize the existence of the new fascist order. His advocacy for what inherently goes against American values, his dynasty’s historical hostility to democracy and his followers’ reactionary rhetoric and anti-democratic bent will further empower the Guards and their Russian allies to prevent Iran from shifting towards the West once the current Islamofascist regime falls.

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As we have seen in the past decade, Moscow has learned that promoting far-right positions and politicians worldwide helps keep the world divided. At the same time, it continues to push for conquest and global domination. Iran is already within the Russian sphere of influence. Still, if the Islamist regime were to fall, the Kremlin would prefer to have an ultranationalist junta run the country rather than a Western-friendly liberal democracy. In other words, the Russians don’t want to see Iran as a powerful pillar of Western security strategy like the post-WWII Germany and Japan.

As things stand, Iran risks passing from one totalitarian regime to another. If things unfold in that direction, the country will remain a hotbed of tyranny and radicalism, oppressing its people while continuing to threaten its neighbors and the wider world. The democratic world needs to intervene to help the Iranian people establish a liberal democracy and bring Iran back to the West.

[Liam Roman edited this piece.]

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observer’s editorial policy.

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